How Rick Santorum could win Georgia
Who will win Georgia’s GOP primary on March 6?
I don’t know, and if you’re looking to the polls for answers, you’re probably looking in the wrong place. At this point, they can reveal trends but they cannot predict outcomes.
So let me go ahead and offer two possibly foolish observations:
1.) The stars may be aligning to make Georgia a pivotal state in the nominating process, and to make Rick Santorum the prime beneficiary.
2.) Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, could see his political career end right here, in the state where it began.
First, why aren’t the polls much help in predicting the outcome? Because this race has been all about momentum, and Big Mo could shift decisively before Georgia voters go to the polls.
For proof, look at how swiftly the numbers have moved in just the past two weeks. In a Mason Dixon poll conducted Feb. 6-8 for the AJC and other Georgia newspapers, Gingrich drew 43 percent of likely Republican voters, Mitt Romney 29 percent and Santorum just 12 percent.
But according to a poll released Tuesday by Fox 5 Atlanta, the race has become a three-way tie, with Gingrich (26 percent), Romney (24 percent) and Santorum (23 percent) all within the margin of error. That apparent doubling of support for Santorum — largely at Gingrich’s expense — was not driven by ad buys but by momentum and infectious enthusiasm. It’s particularly notable given that just two months ago, Santorum was polling at 2 percent in this state.
Now let’s look ahead. Michigan and Arizona voters go to the polls Feb. 28, one week before Georgia. Santorum is leading in most Michigan polls, even though it’s Romney’s native state. He is also surprisingly close in Arizona, within the margin of error in at least one poll. Gingrich, on the other hand, is a distant third in Arizona and isn’t even competing in Michigan.
Should Santorum beat Romney in Michigan, or even finish strongly in both Michigan and Arizona, it would spell big trouble for Romney and be downright devastating to Gingrich. As Rupert Murdoch tweeted recently about Santorum, “Win Michigan and it’s over.” The publicity and enthusiasm generated for Santorum would probably be enough to sweep the former senator to victory here in Georgia a week later. It might also condemn Gingrich to a third-place finish in a state that he has to win to remain credible.
It’s important to note just how primed the state’s Republican electorate is for a Santorum candidacy. We saw flesh-and-blood evidence of that at a Santorum appearance Sunday night in Cumming, where a supportive crowd of more than 3,000 people turned out to hear him speak.
Santorum’s personal and political history, particularly his views on abortion and other social issues, have made him a favorite of evangelical voters nationwide. And in the AJC’s February poll, 72 percent of white Georgians who said they were likely to vote in the GOP primary described themselves as either evangelical or born-again.
Here’s another indication: In a December AJC poll, 49 percent of registered Georgia voters said that a fetus should have the legal standing of a person “at the instant the fetus is conceived.” Just 35 percent took a less absolutist stance.
No partisan breakdowns are available on that question, but if 49 percent of Georgia voters believe that life begins at the instant of conception, that percentage must be considerably higher among Republicans. And among that kind of electorate, Santorum has the potential to do very well.
Unlike Romney, Santorum can and does speak with honest conviction on such issues, and people respond to it. And while Gingrich speaks with equal conviction, people also understand that his greatest political attribute is his ability to believe sincerely in whatever just flew out of his mouth. In terms of honesty and clarity of message, Santorum wins hands down.
In a general election, however, history suggests that Santorum would not be a formidable candidate. If he were the GOP nominee, it is even conceivable that a red state such as Georgia might turn blue. The question is, how many Georgia Republicans are even thinking in those terms?
The answer comes March 6.
– Jay Bookman
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635 comments Add your comment
ld
February 22nd, 2012
12:30 pm
Clearly the Dems need to get more of today’s youth to register and vote–
most will likely prefer to protect all aspects of their freedom–specifically sexual freedom– too much to vote for any of the GOP frontrunners.
This applies to guys as well as females–think child support.
(ir)Rational
February 22nd, 2012
12:30 pm
Pea – She is doing something to herself. Scientifically at least. And that is what matters, in this case the law follows the science. When a third party becomes involved, it becomes about doing something to the mother and the law is completely different regarding that. Especially because the law takes a dim view on you choosing doing something, versus someone else taking away your ability to choose to do that same thing. Now I’m really off to lunch.
Adam
February 22nd, 2012
12:31 pm
md: if folks would look at the fetus as a baby, maybe more would take it a bit more seriously vs using abortion as birth control
The belief that this is a major reason for abortions is not only factually incorrect, but exactly the problem.
Joe Hussein Mama
February 22nd, 2012
12:32 pm
(ir)Rational — “I ALWAYS get randomly selected for secondary screening in the airport.”
Clearly, you look dangerous.
Adam
February 22nd, 2012
12:33 pm
Bruno: ACA violates that by requiring every citizen to participate in a for-profit industry.
Absent that single provision, is the rest of the law also unconstitutional?
Adam
February 22nd, 2012
12:34 pm
Looks like Bob McDonnell is backing down, possibly, from his commitment to sign the ultrasound bill.
Aquagirl
February 22nd, 2012
12:37 pm
if the mother has an abortion, she’s not doing something to just herself. She’s doing something to the unborn child. Another person is involved.
Let’s try this again: that fetus is dependent on her body. She has the right to deny it the use of her body, just like you have the right to legally deny anyone the use of your kidneys, blood, or other body parts.
I’ll issue you the same challenge that went unanswered on Kyle’s blog: let’s pass a law that you have no legal control over your organs if someone else needs them to live. Do you need to work and support your family? Tough, that cute little six-year old needs your bone marrow and she’ll die without it. Get your @$$ to the hospital, pronto. You don’t have a legal right to say no.
I’m betting men won’t show much enthusiasm for the sanctity of life when it’s THEIR bodies.
Peadawg - Yasmin Neal is one craaazy b*ch
February 22nd, 2012
12:39 pm
“She is doing something to herself.” – Dude no she’s not. She doing something to another person, her unborn baby.
Bruno
February 22nd, 2012
12:39 pm
Because that is how insurance works. The “pool” of payers is large enough that the cost PER payer is lower than it would be if each individual had to negotiate and buy their own policy.
Doggone–Once again, you’re misunderstanding the purpose of insurance. Insurance is a vehicle to offset risk–i.e. the risk of unforeseen, potentially catastrophic events. As such, routine costs are not insurable. Obviously the state can mandate that routine costs such as birth control be forcibly included in policies, and most certainly that does spread the routine costs around, but it still isn’t insurance. The bottom line is that liberals pine for a society in which all costs are shared. Which I understand, and oppose. For those who value that as a goal, using third party for-profit companies to carry out that goal is just plain stupid.
williebkind
February 22nd, 2012
12:39 pm
Liberals sure are funny! They rather be betrayed as intelligent but the humor wins out.
williebkind
February 22nd, 2012
12:41 pm
Aquagirl
February 22nd, 2012
12:37 pm
There is a saying you should know:
They profess to be wise thus became fools.
Adam
February 22nd, 2012
12:41 pm
Bruno: As such, routine costs are not insurable.
And yet, before being mandated to, insurance companies started covering such things.
GT
February 22nd, 2012
12:41 pm
The Civil War was fought under the same prospect of emotion trumping reality. The south left under its own independence would be an English speaking Mexico. We would have been the illegal immigrates trying to sneak into a better life of the north and deportation to the south would be the political plank of the Republican Party if there was one. Lincoln would still have been alive to lose the next election, since his assassin had no motive to kill him and that may have been the death of the party right there. Our isolationist thinking has impoverish this state so long it has even sunk into the well educated southern citizens that this is a fact of life that there is no other way of life but stupidity. Angry of a perceived enemy like Satin is short circuiting common sense. If by some miracle Georgia went blue, the whole state would feel the yoke lifted off its body,lets pray that happens for the good of this state and the nation who could use the south in its true American form not the paranoid shadow we have now.
md
February 22nd, 2012
12:41 pm
“The belief that this is a major reason for abortions is not only factually incorrect, but exactly the problem.”
Oh give me a break Adam………my entire circle of friends used abortion about as often as we used drugs……..it’s about convenience and selfishness for plenty of folks.
md
February 22nd, 2012
12:44 pm
“According to a study published in Family Planning Perspectives: 3% of women abort because of concerns that there is something wrong with the fetus; 3% of women abort because of concerns for their own health, and 1% abort because they are pregnant through rape or incest. That totals 7%, leaving 93% of abortions being done for birth control, by this rather loose concept of what constitutes an “abortion for birth control.”
The reasons the women give most often (woman is unready for responsibility; woman can’t afford a baby right now) do seem like birth control reasons. The vague, “woman is concerned about how having a baby could change her life,” likewise sounds like a birth control reason. The data do support the contention that most abortions are for reasons of birth control. “
williebkind
February 22nd, 2012
12:45 pm
GT
February 22nd, 2012
12:41 pm
You are a transplant right? You are not born in the south or ga right? If you are, then I am for abortion.
philosopher
February 22nd, 2012
12:54 pm
Men sitting around opining about abortion is purely asinine… and arrogant. Until men stop raping women and leaving women whom they have impregnated for more exciting, new women…until men can carry a fetus to term and raise it- not Dave and Buster’s and Little League Saturdays, but for years, sitting up all night with a sick and fussy baby, then going to work full time and still helping with homework, bathing, dressing, teaching at the end of the day, they should just shut the heck up. Or talk about it if it makes them happy, but never, never expect the right to make laws about it! Stay out of other people’s business,…if abortion matters to you, work closely with the person you love and be involved so that she doesn’t feel the need to get an abortion. But take away effective birth control, outlaw abortions, and shirk your duties in the support of the children brought to term and you have no place in the discussion!
Erwin's cat
February 22nd, 2012
12:54 pm
Adam -“The belief that this is a major reason for abortions is not only factually incorrect, but exactly the problem.”
What a crock..
williebkind
February 22nd, 2012
12:56 pm
md
February 22nd, 2012
12:44 pm
Excellent, keep pointing out those facts the lame stream liberal media will not do.
Adam
February 22nd, 2012
12:59 pm
Well then, I must have misread a study, or read the wrong study. The one I read many months ago said abortions were mostly due to other reasons. Guess I was wrong.
I guess that means I must now become anti-choice, eh?
Erwin's cat
February 22nd, 2012
12:59 pm
The ONLY reason some determine a fetus as something other than a human life is to make terminating it guilt free…it’s not like having a mole removed, to argue otherwise is silly and deeply dishonest
williebkind
February 22nd, 2012
1:01 pm
philosopher
February 22nd, 2012
12:54 pm
You sound so pure! Except win it becomes a law and the agenda for wackos it gets taught to my kids that it is ok to have an abortion. That is not what I want.
Erwin's cat
February 22nd, 2012
1:07 pm
I do find it interesting that the left exhibits much more outrage over Mitt strapping the dog carrier to the roof of a station wagon then the killing of innocents
md
February 22nd, 2012
1:15 pm
“I guess that means I must now become anti-choice, eh?”
Maybe just google….then post.
Steve
February 22nd, 2012
1:34 pm
This has got to stop…
“Talk about pain at the pump! Some Florida drivers are spending nearly $6 a gallon to fill up their gas tanks.”
We’ve got to get someone else leading this country who has a better understanding of foreign policy.
philosopher
February 22nd, 2012
1:37 pm
williebkind: well, you just go ahead and tell your little darlings to abstain…and watch children bring babies into the world….good luck with that one Gramps! Neither kind, nor responsible, nor smart..
GT
February 22nd, 2012
1:49 pm
Williebekin southern multiple generations, even Atlanta multiple.
The abortion idea is interesting. There was a study done not long back that showed crime, had dropped. And not because of the through on crime politicians as at first blush was given the credit, but the reason was the Roe vs Wade case that legalized abortion. After 18 years of legalized abortions that was a significant drop in the criminal activity as this would be population showed up to adulthood minus the aborted. No reason to go out and get an abortion but a little know fact I thought was interesting.
Trolls Bane
February 22nd, 2012
2:14 pm
1. Since it is now possible to “concieve” a child with out sex, through artifical means and since sex is ONLY for procreation, we should outlaw all sex acts of any kind whatsoever.
2. Before being allowed to get pregnant, the woman must be a – married, b – well educated, c – confirmed religions, d – not a ward of the state ( on welfare)
Seriously, I can see that one of the outcomes of this election cycle with either be the creation of a new party, made up of moderate fiscally conservative / socially progressive republicans & democrats or the more moderate / progessive elements of the republican party will move over to the democrat party and serve as a balance to the more liberal elements of the democrat party
ld
February 22nd, 2012
2:39 pm
Given the long GOP rush to the religious right-wing-nut status,
and especially if Santorum wins the GOP nomination, then
the Dems tact for winning the general election should be
fight for INDIVIDUAL LIBERTY.
who but a liar and a fool would not acknowledge that he/she is for individual liberty for themselves and their children?
Bernie
February 22nd, 2012
2:49 pm
Rick, surely will consult with the Father Of Lies on that one. He has followed in similar footsteps with the many he has told on our President already.
Orion
February 22nd, 2012
2:58 pm
“according to a poll released Tuesday by Fox 5 Atlanta, the race has become a three-way tie, with Gingrich (26 percent), Romney (24 percent) and Santorum (23 percent) all within the margin of error.”
Let’s do the Math. 26 + 24 = 50 + 23 = 73. So we have 73 percent. What is left is now 27% of the vote. Now unless I’m missing something that would mean that Ron Paul hold 27 percent of the vote which would indicate that it’s actually a four-way tie. That is unless in this poll ‘undecided’ was a choice. Quite personally, if you don’t know who you are voting for by now then chances are you will not go out to vote on March 6th in Georgia. Anyways, I was just pulling up the math and questioning the nature of the 27 percent.
ld
February 22nd, 2012
3:03 pm
The GOP is made of a coalition of three factions:
1. The actual controlling leadership is the moneyed investor employer class-folk who,without passionate causes to lure other voters to the polls willing to vote contrary to their own best economic self interest, could not get enough people to vote them into office; and two of the most passionate single-issue voter groups on the planet,
2. Pro-military, freedom lovin’, gun totin’ patriots, and
3. Religious zealots.
Stroking group two was both easy and profitable–much money has been made via the military industrial congressional complex.
To gain the votes of group three, however, group one had reexamine their libertarian leanings and choose to have the power to have freedom for them on the issue of money (See: How the GOP Became the Party of the Rich–November Rolling Stone article) the moneyed investor employer class of the GOP yielded their platform on social issues–knowing full well that they can afford to live or travel wherever they want or need to enjoy those freedoms the religious right-wing-nuts would deny the rest.
Since this third group flourished in the old south where bigotry still simmers, and notwithstanding that groups purported philosophical requirement to judge not that ye be not judged, racial fearmongering thinly disguised as class warfare seems to be an easy sell….
….. and since this third group are self-described as “followers”, blaming that class warfare on anyone not joining their (un) ‘holy’ cause seems to be as easy a sell as repetition–like a soda pop commercial–
especially coinciding with the rise of the mega churches that preach God wants you to be successful rather than emphasizing
judge not that ye be not judged
first tenths to the poor
turn the other cheek
and my favorite
everyone has “free will”– as in individual liberty.
Bernie
February 22nd, 2012
3:12 pm
Seems to me with Rick’s recent prayers at the alter of the Father Of Lies has worked well for him. The people of Georgia has a well doucmented record of praise at that same alter, so they should be one with each other.
dustin
February 23rd, 2012
10:04 am
Santorum is the best canidate by far to beat Obama, as Obama is Muslim and very against the second amendment, this will come to haunt Obama because it will be brought up…… Santorum is going to Win Michigan which should carry over to the win in Georgia and I believe its going to translate into him being the republican nominee which is more then fine by me.
Don'tDumpDownOnME
February 23rd, 2012
12:06 pm
Ron Paul defeats Newt Gingrich, wins Georgia straw poll
http://www.thestatecolumn.com/articles/2012/02/18/ron-paul-defeats-newt-gingrich-wins-georgia-straw-poll/
Gwinnet:
Paul: 115 votes
Gingrich: 73
Santorum: 60 votes.
Romney: 25 votes.
DeKalb County Straw poll results: Santorum 13, Romney 25, Gingrich 25, Paul 105!!!!!
You cannot ignore these numbers. Those are what count in the delegate process.