How Rick Santorum could win Georgia
Who will win Georgia’s GOP primary on March 6?
I don’t know, and if you’re looking to the polls for answers, you’re probably looking in the wrong place. At this point, they can reveal trends but they cannot predict outcomes.
So let me go ahead and offer two possibly foolish observations:
1.) The stars may be aligning to make Georgia a pivotal state in the nominating process, and to make Rick Santorum the prime beneficiary.
2.) Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, could see his political career end right here, in the state where it began.
First, why aren’t the polls much help in predicting the outcome? Because this race has been all about momentum, and Big Mo could shift decisively before Georgia voters go to the polls.
For proof, look at how swiftly the numbers have moved in just the past two weeks. In a Mason Dixon poll conducted Feb. 6-8 for the AJC and other Georgia newspapers, Gingrich drew 43 percent of likely Republican voters, Mitt Romney 29 percent and Santorum just 12 percent.
But according to a poll released Tuesday by Fox 5 Atlanta, the race has become a three-way tie, with Gingrich (26 percent), Romney (24 percent) and Santorum (23 percent) all within the margin of error. That apparent doubling of support for Santorum — largely at Gingrich’s expense — was not driven by ad buys but by momentum and infectious enthusiasm. It’s particularly notable given that just two months ago, Santorum was polling at 2 percent in this state.
Now let’s look ahead. Michigan and Arizona voters go to the polls Feb. 28, one week before Georgia. Santorum is leading in most Michigan polls, even though it’s Romney’s native state. He is also surprisingly close in Arizona, within the margin of error in at least one poll. Gingrich, on the other hand, is a distant third in Arizona and isn’t even competing in Michigan.
Should Santorum beat Romney in Michigan, or even finish strongly in both Michigan and Arizona, it would spell big trouble for Romney and be downright devastating to Gingrich. As Rupert Murdoch tweeted recently about Santorum, “Win Michigan and it’s over.” The publicity and enthusiasm generated for Santorum would probably be enough to sweep the former senator to victory here in Georgia a week later. It might also condemn Gingrich to a third-place finish in a state that he has to win to remain credible.
It’s important to note just how primed the state’s Republican electorate is for a Santorum candidacy. We saw flesh-and-blood evidence of that at a Santorum appearance Sunday night in Cumming, where a supportive crowd of more than 3,000 people turned out to hear him speak.
Santorum’s personal and political history, particularly his views on abortion and other social issues, have made him a favorite of evangelical voters nationwide. And in the AJC’s February poll, 72 percent of white Georgians who said they were likely to vote in the GOP primary described themselves as either evangelical or born-again.
Here’s another indication: In a December AJC poll, 49 percent of registered Georgia voters said that a fetus should have the legal standing of a person “at the instant the fetus is conceived.” Just 35 percent took a less absolutist stance.
No partisan breakdowns are available on that question, but if 49 percent of Georgia voters believe that life begins at the instant of conception, that percentage must be considerably higher among Republicans. And among that kind of electorate, Santorum has the potential to do very well.
Unlike Romney, Santorum can and does speak with honest conviction on such issues, and people respond to it. And while Gingrich speaks with equal conviction, people also understand that his greatest political attribute is his ability to believe sincerely in whatever just flew out of his mouth. In terms of honesty and clarity of message, Santorum wins hands down.
In a general election, however, history suggests that Santorum would not be a formidable candidate. If he were the GOP nominee, it is even conceivable that a red state such as Georgia might turn blue. The question is, how many Georgia Republicans are even thinking in those terms?
The answer comes March 6.
– Jay Bookman
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635 comments Add your comment
Real Scootter
February 22nd, 2012
6:38 am
First?
Real Scootter
February 22nd, 2012
6:38 am
grin:
Real Scootter
February 22nd, 2012
6:45 am
I don’t care who wins Georgia.The Reps. are going to have a hard time unseating Obama.IMHO
JF McNamara
February 22nd, 2012
6:45 am
Let’s hope Romney gets something going. I’m unlikely to vote Republican, but I don’t even want the chance of being stuck with a religious zealot.
Peadawg
February 22nd, 2012
6:46 am
Geeze who would be crazy enough to vote for this guy?
USinUK
February 22nd, 2012
6:46 am
“And in the AJC’s February poll, 72 percent of white Georgians who said they were likely to vote in the GOP primary described themselves as either evangelical or born-again.”
excellent!!!
go! go!! go!!!
destroy the GOP … they brought the evangelicals into their tent – let them suffer the consequences.
“Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the [Republican] party and they’re sure trying to do so, it’s going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can’t and won’t compromise. I know, I’ve tried to deal with them.”
~ Barry Goldwater, November 1994
USinUK
February 22nd, 2012
6:50 am
“Geeze who would be crazy enough to vote for this guy?”
1) people with a penis
2) people who want to be controlled by people with a penis
Cloudodust
February 22nd, 2012
6:57 am
We should be focusing on what has transpired to the average American worker and their families over the past 3 years vs the laws that are on the books that will not be altered. We should focus on this presidents years in office and the path he is taking us down. If you like it, vote for him. Personally, I think it’s been destructive to the American people and our way of life…
DeborahinAthens
February 22nd, 2012
6:59 am
In typical hypocritical fashion, the Right-wing religious right, with their IQs of amoebas, are salivating. This idiot, Santorum, voted for every spending bill Dubya the Dumb dreamed up. Medicare Part D is the largest entitlement program ever enacted, and Santorum was all for it. I detest the man for his grandstanding during the Terri Sciavo incident, when he left his job in Congress to go make an a$$ of himself at her deathbed, making a circus of her death. I don’t care if he and his wife choose to have a child that will live a life of pain and suffering, but he has no right to tell a woman she must have a child who is doomed to hell on earth. This horror of a human is exactly like the Taliban leaders in Afghanistan who took it upon themselves to control the lives of the women in that country–no different! And how dare he denegrate President Obama’s theology? But there is that “element” of the Republican Party that will suck that up because their hatred for the President has poisoned their souls and corrupted what was left of their brain after Dubya’s reign.bring him on. After forty-five years of voting republican, I can no longer recognize my party. I will never vote for a Republican again.
Granny Godzilla
February 22nd, 2012
7:03 am
Well one way would be for a large number of President Obama’s supporters to turn up and vote Santorum in the Georgia Primary.
Imagine the Chaos an Operation like that might cause.
Chaos? Operation? Sounds familiar….mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Fred ™
February 22nd, 2012
7:12 am
I wish i could ask the people at my poll who they were voting for lol. I’ll know who won in my precinct by about 8:00 though……….
USinUK: Soup was great. Tried it first without adding wine, then added some and simmered about 45 more minutes. I’ve never been big on curry, but that gave it a really different (for us) flavor. Thanks. Still haven’t gotten my pizza stone but when I do will try your sauce and dough.
Fred ™
February 22nd, 2012
7:15 am
Cloudodust
February 22nd, 2012
6:57 am
We should be focusing on what has transpired to the average American worker and their families over the past 3 years vs the laws that are on the books that will not be altered. We should focus on this presidents years in office and the path he is taking us down. If you like it, vote for him. Personally, I think it’s been destructive to the American people and our way of life…
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Having said all that isn’t it a shame that your party of choice has offered up nothing but complete blithering idiots as candidates virtually guaranteeing another 4 years for a man you so blindly hate?
USMC
February 22nd, 2012
7:15 am
50 PERCENT TAX RATE ‘FAILING TO BOOST REVENUES’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/tax/9097219/50p-tax-rate-failing-to-boost-revenues.html
Yet dogged by political philosophy and wealth envy, you Bolsheviks still won’t GET it.
USinUK
February 22nd, 2012
7:16 am
Fred – hooray!!! glad you liked it!!
and, in fact, you jsut reminded me that I need to post my focaccia … will do that now …
USMC
February 22nd, 2012
7:19 am
Russia boosts arms sales to Syria…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/21/us-syria-russia-arms-idUSTRE81K13420120221
It looks like Comrade Obama’s RESET BUTTON with Russia isn’t exactly working…
TaxPayer
February 22nd, 2012
7:19 am
Santorum for president! I think Scout may have found his true love.
USinUK
February 22nd, 2012
7:20 am
Here ya go, Fred
http://redskitchendiaries.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/onion-focaccia/
thanks for the reminder!!
Fred ™
February 22nd, 2012
7:21 am
USMC
February 22nd, 2012
7:15 am
50 PERCENT TAX RATE ‘FAILING TO BOOST REVENUES’
Yet dogged by political philosophy and wealth envy, you Bolsheviks still won’t GET it.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
A Treasury source said the relatively poor revenues from self-assessment returns was partly down to highly-paid individuals arranging their affairs to avoid paying the 50p rate
We get it just fine, the rich find ways to not pay their part of the tax. Just as the quote I pulled from YOUR article says.
Semper Fi.
Mad Max
February 22nd, 2012
7:21 am
If gas keeps going up and the president runs out of gimmicks to fool the sheep, then a lot of people might vote for someone with principles. When you have to pay $60 to fill up your mini Cooper, and $120 to fill up your Expedition, a lot of people will understand what green energy costs and they might vote with their pocketbooks. There are still a lot of unemployed voters out there and most of them are discouraged by this guys efforts (I know it’s all W’s fault but Obama’s had the wheel for over 3 years). So I would not start planning any celebration just yet.
Ronnie Raygun
February 22nd, 2012
7:21 am
Thanks for giving me a good reason to vote in the GOP primary, Jay. Plutocrat or Theocrat, whoever wins the GOP primary is going down in November anyway. But seeing Ricky cry during his concession speech will be priceless.
Simple Truths
February 22nd, 2012
7:22 am
Jay, simple answer: If Santorum receives the most votes, he wins.
Fred ™
February 22nd, 2012
7:23 am
LOL “Communist” Focaccia………. uses red onions.
USinUK
February 22nd, 2012
7:23 am
yeah, USMC – I’m sure THIS has nothing to do with it:
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Documents/500000Final.pdf
USinUK
February 22nd, 2012
7:23 am
Their failure relates to their administration of limited companies registered in the UK. The consequence of this failure is that the UK is losing £16 billion in taxes.
USinUK
February 22nd, 2012
7:24 am
Fred – and you know that focaccia comes from sociamalist Italy …
Mick
February 22nd, 2012
7:25 am
It’s getting more difficult for a sane, logical debate when some keep insisting that this president has been ” destructive to the American people and our way of life”. Do people not remember where we were in sept 08? We were staring at the abyss and obama had not a thing to do with it. Yeah, he’s been so bad that the stock market is pushing 13k, american auto companies are making money, unemployment is decreasing, bin laden – dead. What friggin world do you haters live in anyway?
Fred ™
February 22nd, 2012
7:26 am
Mad Max: You talk about sheep? Well you Republican sheep may forget it’s YOUR guys sending all the jobs to China, but us independents don’t.
We know EXACTLY who to blame: The ones getting richer and richer on their overseas plants while good Americans lose their houses because there are no damn jobs here. Maybe YOU are willing to lick the bottom of their boots after they step in crap, but we sure as hell aren’t.
Mad Max
February 22nd, 2012
7:26 am
Mick – one in which our debt will destroy our way of life.
Jm
February 22nd, 2012
7:26 am
How Barack Obama could ruin America.
Oh wait, that already happened.
JamVet - Jay say no the GOP's plan to bring back the Dark Ages.
February 22nd, 2012
7:27 am
Even though The Enlightenment started over 350 years ago, the Republicans never seem to have a shortage of pre-17th century neanderthals to represent them, do they?
http://blogs.ajc.com/mike-luckovich/?cxntlid=sldr_hm
TaxPayer
February 22nd, 2012
7:28 am
Anyway, when is conception according to conservatives of the Republican faith and how many bedroom police will be needed to watch women to make sure they do not harm their newly conceived one for the following nine months or so. I can see an end to unemployment but the downside will be that they’ll all be government jobs unless the Republicans can agree on which religious institution to farm that task out to.
ByteMe
February 22nd, 2012
7:28 am
Popcorn? Who has the popcorn?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjxNnqTcHhg&feature=related
ByteMe
February 22nd, 2012
7:29 am
How Barack Obama could ruin America.
Oh wait, that already happened.
Awwww, I love the sound of Republican whining in the morning.
Mick
February 22nd, 2012
7:30 am
mad max
That’s all you’ve got, debt? Who started us down that path? Where was the debt in 2001? What a losing joke…
Fred ™
February 22nd, 2012
7:31 am
Mick
February 22nd, 2012
7:25 am
It’s getting more difficult for a sane, logical debate when some keep insisting that this president has been ” destructive to the American people and our way of life”. Do people not remember where we were in sept 08? We were staring at the abyss and obama had not a thing to do with it. Yeah, he’s been so bad that the stock market is pushing 13k, american auto companies are making money, unemployment is decreasing, bin laden – dead. What friggin world do you haters live in anyway?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
No they don’t remember Mick. They only remember what lie Rush told them yesterday. As to what world do they live in? Same answer, the fantasy land of Rush and Neal where never is heard a truthful word, and “those folks” are banned all day…………
Mad Max
February 22nd, 2012
7:31 am
Fred – I believe both parties are to blame. I just don’t believe this guy understands what he is doing. His latest budget for example didn’t include his latest tax gimmick. Now he’s for lowering corporate income taxes after spending 3 years beating up on corporations? He’s all about buying votes and has no vision for how we are going to get out of this. That’s why I want him out of there. He hasn’t grown into the job.
Mick
February 22nd, 2012
7:33 am
**He hasn’t grown into the job**
So, you are offering us rick santorum? No thanks…
batman
February 22nd, 2012
7:34 am
Stock Market up? Poor peope in more dire shape.
Obama: The rich people’s president. Who would have thunk it?
USinUK
February 22nd, 2012
7:35 am
“Mick – one in which our debt will destroy our way of life.”
debt: bad when it’s dems. okey-dokey when it’s GOP.
JamVet - Jay say no the GOP's plan to bring back the Dark Ages.
February 22nd, 2012
7:35 am
…after spending 3 years beating up on corporations?
OK, I know this is likely an exercise in futility, but enlighten me as to his incessant corporate beatings.
Specific facts, not slogans or sound bites, please…
Ennis
February 22nd, 2012
7:35 am
Fred at 7:15. I agree whole heartily with what you posted. However, the candidates aren’t running on merit and issues. The repubs are so busy bushwacking each other that they all look like taliban terrorist. I know that isn’t true, it is just what it seems to me. Rick can’t get over that 1950″s women in the kitchen, men know what women want, backward thinking, etc that he scares me to death just knowing he is in the running for the Big Job.
Mad Max
February 22nd, 2012
7:36 am
Mick – $15,000,000,000,000.00 + and growing faster than we can pay it off and the guy doesn’t even make an effort to do anything about it! That is more than enough reason to kick him out. I know that he inherited some of it, but he has made W look frugal.
batman
February 22nd, 2012
7:36 am
Obama saying he wants to cut corporate tax rates.
THree years after he has been in office. Its almost like an election is coming up.
USinUK
February 22nd, 2012
7:36 am
“I know that he inherited some of it,”
talk about weak.
Fred ™
February 22nd, 2012
7:37 am
Max: I’ll give you “he hasn’t grown in the job,” but look at what the republicans are offering. Their guys are just bat crap nutty.
Newt is the smartest, but we know from the past that he’s very unstable. WHo’s to say if he were to get elected that he wouldn’t nut up because the Ambassador from the Ukraine ’slighted him” drop a nuke on them then try to bang the Queen of England?
Fred ™
February 22nd, 2012
7:39 am
Amen Ennis: Brother Barack could be beaten very easily by an even half way decent candidate. But the ones being trotted out by the Republicans are only ‘decent” in their warped and twisted minds.
batman
February 22nd, 2012
7:39 am
Fred ™
Which Republican Presidential candidate has the mainstream media NOT framed as being bat crap nutty in your lifetime?
Can you name one? Just one?
TaxPayer
February 22nd, 2012
7:40 am
Shouldn’t there be a rule that you cannot post revisionist history until at least fifty years have passed. Mad Max could use such a rule regarding his recollection of the Bush years.
Mick
February 22nd, 2012
7:40 am
max
Correct, repubs run up the tab, then leave and stick the bill to the dems and complain about deficits. Nice strategy but the people know where all the debt started and until we get this economy straightened out, the debt takes second seat…
Fred ™
February 22nd, 2012
7:40 am
Just about time to go get a cap on my tooth. Should I ask for the gas?