Mitt’s monumental, perhaps insurmountable problem
At TalkingPointsMemo, Josh Marshall has posted an interactive version of the chart below, documenting the rather quick deterioration of Mitt Romney’s favorability index. (It’s a compendium of results from six different polls.)
As Marshall puts it, “I don’t think many political observers would disagree that someone that far under water public opinion-wise is just not going to be elected president.” My own opinion is, that depends. I’d like to know a little more before reaching that conclusion.
In this case, I think it’s important to try to understand what may have driven that rather shocking rise in Romney’s unfavorable numbers. Was it a one-time event, a gaffe or something that might be overcome in time, or is it something more fundamental and difficult to shake?
Personally, I can’t think of any one news event substantial enough to have caused this dynamic. Romney hasn’t been hit with some major scandal; he hasn’t committed some monumental blunder that would explain what the chart depicts.
But timing offers an important clue.
Because the chart is an amalgamation of polls, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly when Romney’s deterioration began. You have to go back to the original data, preferably using polls that have asked the same question repeatedly over a period of time.
For example, here are the last four results as reported in the Washington Post/ABC News poll:
And here are similar numbers culled from CNN’s polling data:
They both tell us the same thing: Romney’s sharp plummet nationally began sometime in the 10-day period between Jan. 12 and Jan. 22. In the Post poll, a five-point favorability advantage on Jan. 8 became an 18-point disadvantage two weeks later. In the CNN poll, a plus-one favorability rating on Jan. 13 became a 20-point disadvantage four weeks later.
And what was happening in that time frame?
Well, Newt Gingrich was beating the holy hell out of Romney in the South Carolina primary, which was held Jan. 21. In the debates and on the airwaves, Gingrich was depicting Romney as a wealthy, out-of-touch Wall Streeter more concerned with making a lot of money than with helping his fellow Americans. Romney’s years with Bain Capital became an issue, and he was forced to reveal tax returns for the last two years documenting high income and low taxes. Thanks to Gingrich, an aspect of Romney’s history and background that had been only vaguely touched upon previously was pushed front and center.
Romney has never recovered, and I’m not sure he ever will.
(I should also note that it’s foolish for Republicans to blame Gingrich for what has happened. He didn’t create this problem for Romney; he merely exposed a major weakness that was destined to come to light anyway.)
As in many things in life, politics is about being in the right place at the right time. Romney’s fate is to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. In another year, under different circumstances, he might have made a perfectly fine Republican presidential nominee and perhaps a perfectly fine president as well. He’s a smart and decent man with a lot of relevant political experience.
But given the country’s current mood — a mood the Democrats are more than ready to stoke — voters do not seem comfortable with a man who, right or wrong, often comes across as a caricature of an unfeeling Wall Street banker. At times in our history, those people have been perceived as heroes and role models, but that’s not how they are perceived today. Voters do not want to elevate a person of that background to the White House. In fact, the polling data suggest that voters have recoiled from it.
As political strategists will tell you, policy white papers and political platforms are all fine and good, but in the end elections come down to what voters are feeling in their gut. And what Romney makes them feel is not good. Maybe it’s not fair; maybe it’s not all that rational. But it’s reality nonetheless.
It’s quite a predicament for Republicans. Romney has shown no ability to overcome his liability. In fact, the harder he tries for the common touch, the more awkward he becomes. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are not feasible options, and the realists in the party know that waiting until the GOP convention Aug. 27-30 to try to identify and unite behind a white-knight candidate simply is not feasible.
I keep saying that it’s a long time between now and November, and it is. A lot of things could still happen. But this is a helluva pickle for the GOP.
– Jay Bookman
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Guides
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2012 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
738 comments Add your comment
Stonethrower
February 15th, 2012
2:26 pm
He is elite and he looks presidential. What more can we ask for?
stands for decibels
February 15th, 2012
2:28 pm
Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are not feasible options
“I’m normally not a praying man, but if you’re up there, please save me, Superman!”
–Homer Simpson
Steve
February 15th, 2012
2:29 pm
It will still be Romney/Obama this Fall, and Obama was clean Romney’s clock.
Normal
February 15th, 2012
2:29 pm
Oh Joy! More good news for President Obama!
Kamchak
February 15th, 2012
2:29 pm
Mitt’s problem has always been with the evangelicals. I originally believed they would rally ’round Perry. Now it looks like they are rallying ’round Santorum.
Normal
February 15th, 2012
2:31 pm
Jay,
You say, ” But this is a helluva pickle for the GOP.” and I say yes, but it’s a self made pickle.
They bought the cuecumber, jar and picke juice…It’s all theirs.
M
February 15th, 2012
2:33 pm
And Republicans will interpret this as a sign that they’re not conservative enough…which will lead to them eventually trying to declare buying a girl a drink as a person.
barking frog
February 15th, 2012
2:35 pm
And again I say, President Obama is the most brilliant
politician I have seen in my lifetime. The RNC has to
contend with Romney- a wall street insider in an election
where where wall street will be a dirty word. Newt- a
Washington insider that was kicked out by his own party
for ethical problems. Santorum- a Washington insider that
could not get reelected in his home state. Unless they
plan an August surprise in candidates, They are beat
now.
Adam
February 15th, 2012
2:35 pm
No wonder the GOP establishment was pissed when Newt opened that line of attack.
Sorry cons, the “wealth envy” and “class warfare” counterpoints don’t work!
Midori
February 15th, 2012
2:36 pm
“bring it on”
— Thomas Jefferson
Granny Godzilla
February 15th, 2012
2:37 pm
Happy Birthday to Josh Marshall!
TaxPayer
February 15th, 2012
2:37 pm
The Republicans need a black knight candidate. Someone that will hang in there against all odds and never ever give up.
kinda lazy
February 15th, 2012
2:38 pm
Romney is a bad enough candidate ,but Santorum and Gingrich are bloody awful.
barking frog
February 15th, 2012
2:41 pm
It’s Obama’s fault the GOP primary is so fouled up.
Steve
February 15th, 2012
2:43 pm
I laughed out loud at someone last night who admitted to voting for McCain/Palin in 2008…he’s voting Obama in 2012.
Recon 0311 2533
February 15th, 2012
2:44 pm
“But this is a helluva pickle for the GOP.”
Jay, might consider that Obama’s favorable approval ratings were deep in negative territory most of last year. While he’s bounced back some he doesn’t appear to be gaining any significant traction in regaining his 08/09 popularity. He’s been hovering around a tie and dropping back negative even though he’s been actively campaigning since late last Summer. He’s message isn’t really resonating effectively and that’s a helluva pickle for the Democrats.
Adam
February 15th, 2012
2:44 pm
M: And Republicans will interpret this as a sign that they’re not conservative enough…
It is fun to watch their self fulfilling implosion isn’t it? Deny science (i.e. the taking of positions based on EVIDENCE examination) and it’s real easy to just feel like the right answer is to do the exact opposite of what will cause you to get more votes.
Adam
February 15th, 2012
2:47 pm
TaxPayer: I think this guy would have been a good candidate to win against Obama: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73Wb14NZ01E
King of Everything
February 15th, 2012
2:49 pm
Pat Buchanan’s southern strategy will leave the Republicans in the wilderness of their own little bubble for 100 years.
md
February 15th, 2012
2:53 pm
It will still come down to what the independents prefer……Obama or the not Obama…..
TaxPayer
February 15th, 2012
2:54 pm
Adam,
I especially liked that Horn of Urgency.
King of Everything
February 15th, 2012
2:55 pm
They cannot challenge Obama on the issues and they lack the skills to beat him at politics. They are just very bad at their jobs. I smell a landslide in Nov but the lame stream media wont say that because they want people to watch the horse race.
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
February 15th, 2012
2:56 pm
Well, I swear, this poor Mr. Mormon Underpants just can’t win for losing. I mean, he’s just like us, only he’s got a few hundred million bucks and some overseas bank accounts and said he don’t care about the poor and worked for a co. that went in and fired folks and sent their jobs to China. And then the PETA nutcakes went after him for hauling his dog to Canada in a cage strapped to the roof of his car. Then Michigan got all worked up because he said the auto cos. ought to of been let to swirl down the toilet. It’s just his bad luck they’re making a comeback.
I bet deep down he’d like nothing better than to have a big bowl of caviar and maybe some thousand-buck French wine with us at some redneck truckstop. Voters are so picky, picky, picky.
Anyways, I’m backing away from the poor guy because the stuff’s about to hit the fan and he won’t even be able to win his home state. If any of the people in Michigan show up carrying a fence rail, my advise to him is hit the road with both feet moving. If this keeps up he won’t be able to get his weekly manicure and 500-buck hair style. People these days will hate you for the least little thing.
Have a good p.m. everybody.
getalife
February 15th, 2012
2:56 pm
This cycle is very entertaining.
Kamchak
February 15th, 2012
2:57 pm
“But…but…but…$4-5 a gallon gas on election day.”
–Thomas Jefferson
Midori
February 15th, 2012
2:57 pm
“the south shall rise again”
— Del
Midori
February 15th, 2012
2:58 pm
LOL, Kammy!!
Adam
February 15th, 2012
2:58 pm
md: It will still come down to what the independents prefer……Obama or the not Obama…..
Yes…. remind me how being “not-Bush” worked out for Kerry?
Normal
February 15th, 2012
2:59 pm
“the south shall rise again”
What do you mean…again?
Adam
February 15th, 2012
3:00 pm
the lame stream media wont say that because they want people to watch the horse race.
Actually they won’t say it because they actually believe that the Republicans have a chance even after all this BS. Either that, or they are bending over backwards to create a false “fair and balanced” viewpoint.
ByteMe
February 15th, 2012
3:01 pm
While he’s bounced back some he doesn’t appear to be gaining any significant traction in regaining his 08/09 popularity.
He doesn’t need to. He just has to suck less than his opponent. Given his current selection of opponents, that isn’t going to be hard.
Adam
February 15th, 2012
3:01 pm
the south shall rise again
“Because if there’s one thing Southerners DON’T do, it’s lose a war and get over it.” –
Bill MaherThomas JeffersonSteve
February 15th, 2012
3:02 pm
GOP = greedy old pigs. Pimps for the rich.
Adam
February 15th, 2012
3:02 pm
So I haven’t heard people claim Obama isn’t a leader lately. Did Rush and Hannity stop using that talking point?
SoGaVet
February 15th, 2012
3:02 pm
Under normal campaign circumstances, with the other party’s primary also going on to dilute and distract the media – Romney would probably have done ok. But the spotlight is all GOP, all the time.
Meanwhile, the Cons have been blasting the President for 3 years and folks are finally figuring out that Con-talking points – which were sold as fact – were nothing more than fabricated non-sense.
jewcowboy
February 15th, 2012
3:02 pm
I bet he eats arugula.
Why oh why?
February 15th, 2012
3:02 pm
Maybe, just maybe, the Regressive Party will get so thoroughly thumped this November that they will see fit to get rid of guys like Ryan and Cantor (Boehner too, but he’s not nearly as bad) and the Tea Party in its entirety, and will return to being a rational, reasonable, grown-up party with whom the President and the Democrats can obtain real compromise (on both sides), thereby advancing the ball for ALL Americans (jm included).
Coincidentally, I haven’t seen jm’s infantile, hate-filled invective soiling this particular blog post. Kudos to you, Jay, to the extent you either banned him or encouraged him to be a little less flatulent.
md
February 15th, 2012
3:04 pm
“Yes…. remind me how being “not-Bush” worked out for Kerry?”
Worked pretty good for obama, and Bush wasn’t even running…….
CJ
February 15th, 2012
3:05 pm
[Romney] is a smart and decent man with a lot of relevant political experience.
Actually, I couldn’t disagree with Jay more. Whether Romney is smart is debatable (riches are not necessarily evidence of overall intelligence), but he is anything but decent. First, he’s a serial liar who will say anything to get elected. But worse, he’s psychopath who has no regard for how his actions affect the lives of others.
So what the hell is wrong with the one-third of Americans who think favorably of the man?
Aquagirl
February 15th, 2012
3:06 pm
thereby advancing the ball for ALL Americans (jm included).
Do we really have to include him?
Gale
February 15th, 2012
3:06 pm
I still cannot understand how the social conservatives can be such a big voting block. Are they really and I am just in denial? I wish we could get those social issues out of the discussion because they just distract from real problems the country faces. When most people claim it is the economy they are concerned about, why are the candidates carrying on about abortion, gay rights and women in combat? Oh, to stir up the social conservatives of course. Then back to the first point. Are they that big a voting block that they matter?
Jill
February 15th, 2012
3:07 pm
There is really only one thing Mitt can do to get back on top… play the Mormon card. It’s really the only thing he’s passionate about (that and personal wealth creation) and he’s going to need some sort of passion to break through.
http://mankabros.com/blogs/chairman/2012/02/07/mitt-romney-its-time-to-play-the-mormon-card/
Adam
February 15th, 2012
3:08 pm
Why oh why? @ 3:02 pm
I really appreciate your optimism. I mean that seriously.
Paul
February 15th, 2012
3:08 pm
“Was it a one-time event, a gaffe or something that might be overcome in time, or is it something more fundamental and difficult to shake?”
I’d say this entire Republican primary process is a gaffe whose effects will be difficult to shake.
When a reasonable guy like Huntsman gets roundly rejected and a guy like Romney’s seen as the best chance to beat Pres Obama yet he’s vilified because he’s…. gasp….. moderate …
ByteMe
February 15th, 2012
3:09 pm
Worked pretty good for obama, and Bush wasn’t even running…….
Worked great when Bush had a 20% approval rating. And worked great against the cranky old guy yelling “Get the hell off my lawn!” We don’t quite have that dynamic this time.
Adam
February 15th, 2012
3:09 pm
Jill: You’re right, he should do that. Democrats certainly won’t attack him on that angle.
Steve
February 15th, 2012
3:09 pm
The GOP religious base (conservative Christians) are not ready for a Mormon President. They don’t consider Mormons Christian.
CJ
February 15th, 2012
3:11 pm
Incidentally, I wasn’t using a metaphor or trying to be extreme when labeling Romney a “psychopath” in my previous comment. He is, by definition, a psychopath.
Recon 0311 2533
February 15th, 2012
3:14 pm
Amusing how the lib’s rationalize. We have it that the media won’t come out and say that Obama is so far ahead that it’s a certainty he’ll win because then nobody will read their news reporting. Or that Pat Buchanan whose been out of the political landscape for years is leading Republicans into the wilderness. And then you have the Thomas Jefferson pretend quotes. Funny but also kind of pathetic.
Mr. Snarky
February 15th, 2012
3:14 pm
Mitt let his opponents define him…never a good move.