Santorum’s still slim chances get a little fatter
Sure, Rick Santorum is now leading in at least one national poll of Republican voters. Big whoop. So was Herman Cain at one point. In fact, as Nate Silver points out, Santorum becomes the 11th person to lead in at least one national poll for the 2012 presidential nomination. So I still have a hard time making myself believe that Santorum has a chance of either stopping Mitt Romney or becoming the party’s nominee himself.
But there’s a variety of reasons to begin to wonder:
– The poll that puts Santorum up nationally among Republicans — Public Policy Polling — also reports that Romney’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are down to 44/43 percent. Remember, that’s among usual GOP primary voters. It is hard to believe that the frontrunner for a party’s nomination could have negatives that high among his own party’s base.
– Another poll, this one by ARG, puts Santorum (33%) up by six points over Romney (27%) in Mitt’s native state of Michigan, where they hold the primary two weeks from tomorrow. (A PPP poll puts Santorum up by 16). If Santorum were to manage to pull that one off, Romney would be in serious trouble, and I think you’d start to see open panic set in among the GOP establishment. (Romney won Michigan in 2008 fairly easily).
– Looking a little deeper into ARG numbers, you see the source of Romney’s woes. Among self-identified Michigan Republicans, Romney (18%) actually comes in third, behind both Santorum (42%) and Gingrich (24%). The former Massachusetts governor does as well as he does in the state only because he enjoys a substantial lead among independents and Democrats who say they may vote in Michigan’s open GOP primary. He gets 48 percent of that vote compared to Gingrich with 13 percent and Santorum with 11 percent.
If Romney tries to slide further to the right, he begins to lose those votes in the middle. He doesn’t really have good options.
– Santorum is no Gingrich. Romney could play dirty with Gingrich, launching all-out attacks on his character, history and record because those were the rules that Gingrich himself plays by. Newt’s entertaining whines about negative attacks drew no sympathy from anybody. In addition, you could say the most horrible things about Gingrich and basically still be telling the truth.
Santorum, the devout family man, is not such an easy target.
– In another interesting development, the editors of National Review are now calling on Gingrich to step down from the race, writing:
“… it would be a grave mistake for the party to make someone with such poor judgment and persistent unpopularity its presidential nominee. It is not clear whether Gingrich remains in the race because he still believes he could become president next year or because he wants to avenge his wounded pride: an ambiguity that suggests the problem with him as a leader. When he led Santorum in the polls, he urged the Pennsylvanian to leave the race. On his own arguments the proper course for him now is to endorse Santorum and exit.”
Gingrich has few friends in the GOP establishment; should that call to concede begin to be echoed elsewhere, it could set off an avalanche against the former speaker. His fundraising has already dried up, with even his chief sponsor Sheldon Adelson reportedly shutting off the money spigot.
– Not so long ago, Romney would have been overjoyed to have Gingrich leave the race, but today that may be his biggest nightmare. Conversely, it has been widely thought that Gingrich has remained in the race largely to wreak revenge against Romney, whom he has come to despise.
If that is truly Newt’s prime motivation, he could have no better vengeance than to abandon the race and leave Romney alone to face the little sweater vest that could.
– Jay Bookman
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371 comments Add your comment
Peadawg
February 13th, 2012
12:36 pm
First
Peadawg
February 13th, 2012
12:36 pm
finally……
Mick
February 13th, 2012
12:38 pm
Rick Santorum? Go ahead and make my day…
Adam
February 13th, 2012
12:38 pm
Oh PLEEEEEASE let him get the nomination. PLEASE. I want the idea that social conservatism is something that EVERYONE agrees with and is SO BEHIND to be trounced once and for all. I want those illusions of a Christian Nation that bans abortion and birth control and gay people to be SHATTERED and all of the metaphorical shards plunged right into the brains of the faithful.
Whatever
February 13th, 2012
12:40 pm
I want to vote who I want to vote for if he/she can beat Obama or not. It’s sad there are few good choices on either side anymore.
getalife
February 13th, 2012
12:41 pm
willard losing to sanitarium is hilarious.
Don't Forget
February 13th, 2012
12:42 pm
At least Santorum lives by his words. By wearing that sweater vest he virtually guarantees that any sex he has is for procreation purposes only.
Mid Ga Retiree
February 13th, 2012
12:43 pm
@Whatever…………… well said!!
scrappy
February 13th, 2012
12:43 pm
“the little sweater vest that could.”
thats awesome!
JOE Cool-Republicans Call Him MESSIAH, I Just Call Him Mr. President
February 13th, 2012
12:44 pm
Adam
February 13th, 2012
12:38 pm
I 2nd that!! PLEEEEASE
Normal
February 13th, 2012
12:47 pm
Posted this a couple of sheets ago, but a reminder of Rick’s opinion of a “Woman’s Place”
http://news.icanhascheezburger.com/2012/02/10/political-pictures-rick-santorum-womens-work/
Josey Whales
February 13th, 2012
12:48 pm
National Review calls out Newt to leave the GoP race. After Newt said if he was elected as President the 4th thing he would do after sending people to the Moon is to get rid of Southern White Conserative men in the South. While he was speaking to an audience in California in front of Tiffany’s………….
Misty Fyed
February 13th, 2012
12:48 pm
Enter your comments here
AmVet - Just say no to lazy do-nothing Republicans.
February 13th, 2012
12:49 pm
Santorum lost his own US Senate seat by almost 20 points in 2006.
Even Pennsylvania Republicans, grew sick of him and his 1950s nonsense.
That he, Newt and Ron are still in the race is indicative of just how absurd this circus has become…
Skip
February 13th, 2012
12:53 pm
That this crap will go on until Nov. depresses me.
Finn McCool (Class Warfare = Stopping Rich People from TAKING MORE of OUR MONEY)
February 13th, 2012
12:54 pm
President Obama for the first time projected a deficit below $1 trillion and called for raising $1.5 trillion over 10 years by taxing the wealthiest and closing loopholes.
NYTMES.COM
Oh, gawd! Who will stand up to protect the wealthy! Where are our conservanut friends in times like these? Where are the middle class rubes/sheep to help these poor poor billionaires?
saywhat?
February 13th, 2012
12:55 pm
Keep chuggin’ those buckets of Santorum, repubs.
reebok
February 13th, 2012
12:56 pm
Your Republican Party…Building a Bridge to the 19th Century!
Finn McCool (Class Warfare = Stopping Rich People from TAKING MORE of OUR MONEY)
February 13th, 2012
12:57 pm
“By the end of my second term, I will be known as the Messiah. But it won’t be me who calls me by this name. I will be called this name by the people of my land who will come to recognize all that is true and great, and crunchy…but sweet.”
~ teh Newt
Finn McCool (Class Warfare = Stopping Rich People from TAKING MORE of OUR MONEY)
February 13th, 2012
1:00 pm
Would Newt ever hijack a forum discussing Ricky Santorum? Of course not! Please excuse my previous post!
Fred
February 13th, 2012
1:02 pm
Skip
February 13th, 2012
12:53 pm
That this crap will go on until Nov. depresses me.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I second that. Come on jay. Let’s talk about the shelter closing downtown. How about the snow coming? Or maybe the wild hog dinner scandal. Haven’t we “done” every Republican candidate at least 4 times now?
Soothsayer
February 13th, 2012
1:02 pm
Rick Santorum couldn’t even get re-elected to a third term in the Senate. He’s a walking RepugNOwecan’t talking point. How many Senators do you who are voted out after only 2 terms in office.
I know the following might be upsetting to some but . . .
I never really was a fan of Whitney Houston. I can’t think of a single song of hers that really did anything for me.
Now, however, after her death, we are bombarded ad nauseam with her music. If hear “I Will Always Love You” one more time, I going to hurl!
She’s dead already! Give it a rest!
AmVet - You cons have got to ask yourself one question: Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya, punks?
February 13th, 2012
1:03 pm
The notion that college education is a cost-effective way to help poor, low-skill, unmarried mothers with high school diplomas or GEDs move up the economic ladder is just wrong. ~Rick Santorum, July 2005.
Bruno
February 13th, 2012
1:03 pm
Paul: If you will examine the pattern in Jay’s posts, it often begins with references to gov’t data banks such as census, OMB, etc,, cites some data and interprets that to present his opinion. But, here’s the key thing: he uses verifiable information from reputable agencies to arrive at his conclusions. Sure he has an opinion, he’s an opinion writer. But he arrives at his opinion differently than the guys on radio or tv who say stuff like
Out of curiosity, does this column meet those high-flown journalistic standards that you attribute to Jay, Paul?? “Sure, Rick Santorum is now leading in at least one national poll of Republican voters. Big whoop” comes across as a little personal to me. And though his “little sweater vest that could” crack has the peanut gallery rolling in the aisles, it doesn’t do much more for me than calling the President “Oblamer”. Just my opinion, of course.
Joe Hussein Mama
February 13th, 2012
1:06 pm
Conservative blogs were buzzing about the possibility of a brokered convention over the weekend. I can’t speak for how widespread acceptance for the idea is among conservative voters, but the posters on the blogs I was reading actually seemed hopeful about it. Several commentors I saw expressed hope for someone like Ron Paul or Sarah Palin to swoop in and save the day for them.
King of Everything
February 13th, 2012
1:06 pm
Just turn this into a Catholic vs. Mormon brawl and see who can beat the Muslim who worships at Christian churches.
Adam
February 13th, 2012
1:06 pm
Bruno: I see your “little sweater vest that could” + “Oblamer” and raise you a “Rick Sanitorium”
getalife
February 13th, 2012
1:07 pm
Lets get ready to rumble.
In the red corner, from the great State of Texas, the perry crusher, Paul.
In the blue corner, from parts unknown, bruno.
Lets get it on.
godless heathen
February 13th, 2012
1:09 pm
“Now, however, after her death, we are bombarded ad nauseam with her music. If hear “I Will Always Love You” one more time, I going to hurl!”
Except if it’s Dolly singing it, because she did it so much better anyway.
Fred
February 13th, 2012
1:09 pm
JHM@ 1:06: You had me going until the end. I just have to much faith in my fellow Americans to believe that anyone, not even the most deluded far right wing fanatic would want Sarah Palin to be President.
Mick
February 13th, 2012
1:09 pm
Just as an aside, that vest/sweater thingie is kinda dorky…just sayin…
Bruno
February 13th, 2012
1:11 pm
Bruno: I see your “little sweater vest that could” + “Oblamer” and raise you a “Rick Sanitorium”
Alright, good comeback, Adam.
That this crap will go on until Nov. depresses me.
Skip–I think you’re being a little over-optimistic with your end point.
Tell you what, guys, I think I need a little blog break, so I’ll catch you down the road.
Best wishes to all.
SoGaVet
February 13th, 2012
1:13 pm
The RepubliCant’s are running out of Front-runners-other-than-Romney.
I never thought they’d devolve to Santorum. Only Ron Paul hasn’t enjoyed that status…so far.
Fred
February 13th, 2012
1:14 pm
Do some fly by’s and drop us a tune Bruno.
Joe Hussein Mama
February 13th, 2012
1:17 pm
Fred — “You had me going until the end. I just have to much faith in my fellow Americans to believe that anyone, not even the most deluded far right wing fanatic would want Sarah Palin to be President.”
I’m dead serious; that’s what I saw several commentors saying.
As you may or may not know, I spent more than 20 years sticking with the GOP and voting for their candidates, so even though I’m not on their team any more, I like to check in and see which way the wind is blowing in their neighborhood sometimes. And from what I can tell, it’s blowing in the direction of SOMEONE ELSE, not the candidates they’ve got right now.
I frankly think they’re looking for some sort of media king or queen to lead them into November. That might explain why Newt spiked up again, even after his campaign evaporated so he and Callista could take a cruise. Newt’s good for a soundbite, and so’s Palin. Right now, IMO, the GOP rank and file are so desperate and hungry for the White House that they’ll latch onto anyone who looks decent on TV and talks a good game.
stands for decibels
February 13th, 2012
1:20 pm
you could say the most horrible things about Gingrich and basically still be telling the truth
TMML.
Jefferson
February 13th, 2012
1:22 pm
I guess he thinks if the majority of the people want to go back to the 50’s we should.
Butch Cassidy
February 13th, 2012
1:22 pm
If it weren’t for the fact that the people who think “Anybody but Obama” would actually vote for “Anybody but Obama” the Republican candidate race would be hilarious.
Butch Cassidy
February 13th, 2012
1:25 pm
The New Santorum catch phrases – “Get that contraception away from our women, and get our women away from the front lines”.
and
“Santorum. The President who can put our women back in the kitchen where they belong”.
Libertarian
February 13th, 2012
1:27 pm
Ugh…in Santorum vs. Obama I’ll just be staying home on election day.
Josey Whales
February 13th, 2012
1:28 pm
Before Newt send people to the Moon, he will have to sign a pledge from grover norquist, promising not to raise taxes on the moon……..
Erwin's cat
February 13th, 2012
1:29 pm
Jefferson – “I guess he thinks if the majority of the people want to go back to the 50’s we should.”
that’s the way a democracy works…
JOE Cool-Republicans Call Him MESSIAH, I Just Call Him Mr. President
February 13th, 2012
1:30 pm
Gotta love the trollies….lol. They’re so cute.
Jay says to tell the truth (only as he sees it)
February 13th, 2012
1:30 pm
Wow. No conservatives left.
The perfect liberal debate. No one left to counter the BS.
At least now, maybe you can win some arguments.
Looks like you got what you wanted, Jay.
Tommy Maddox
February 13th, 2012
1:31 pm
Gloria Allred will show up with three mannequins and a punching bag all claiming that Santorum reneged on buying them tickets to “The Lyon King”…
Butch Cassidy
February 13th, 2012
1:31 pm
Santorum. He doesn’t want to give Black people other peoples money. All others please form a line to the right.
Rick Santorum 2012
Jay
February 13th, 2012
1:31 pm
Erick Erickson at RedState:
“… Santorum winning (in Michigan) will cause abject panic among the powers that be in Washington, DC because they don’t think he can win a general election. They are sure he cannot win a general election. They are sure all the things he has written about women working outside the home, gays, beastiality, etc. will come back to bite him in the general election.
If Romney wins, the conservative base will panic because he will be one step closer to wrapping this thing up and they don’t want him to wrap it up. They want him beaten. They just aren’t sure they want Santorum, or Gingrich for that matter, to be the one to do it.
So everybody sit back and panic. It’s panic time in the GOP. In a race they should be winning against Barack Obama, the only winner seems to be sepuku.”
Libertarian
February 13th, 2012
1:31 pm
Maybe Gingrich is staying in because he’s smart enough to know that Santorum doesn’t stand a chance against Obama in a general elections. Maybe he’s taking one for the team and splitting the ultra-right vote in order to get Romney through the primaries….but, I doubt he’s that selfless.
Donovan
February 13th, 2012
1:32 pm
Well! Now it’s on to Santorum with another liberal hit piece. I was wondering when the other shoe would drop.
You know…when it is all over and done and we are enjoying which ever Republican president that is sitting in the WH, the one thing that matters most is that Obama will not be there to finish off this great country.
I still find it annoying and unbelievable that there are still some people that are dumb enough to want Obama and his failures to be our president for another term.
It speaks volumes of the people who support this regime.
Talking Head
February 13th, 2012
1:33 pm
Obama administration ‘Ministry of Truth’ exposed.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/02/12/inside-media-matters-sources-memos-reveal-erratic-behavior-close-coordination-with-white-house-and-news-organizations/%20