A peek inside the presidential poll data
A new poll from Pew adds to the list of pollsters reporting good news for President Obama. It shows Obama leading Mitt Romney by eight points, 52-44, and Rick Santorum by 10 points.
But here are a few nuggets I found particularly interesting:
– Obama has a 21-point lead over both Romney and Santorum among women. The margin is 59-38 percent. Among men, Obama actually trails by five against Romney and three against Santorum. That’s a 26-point swing between men and women, and I don’t recall ever seeing a gender gap that large.
– In November, Romney had a 12-point lead in the Pew poll among independents. Today, Obama has a nine-point lead among that same group. That’s probably a function of the improving economy, and also testifies to the damage being done to Romney in the GOP primary. Republicans can hope that
if Romney seals the nomination, that may begin to change again, but we’ll see.
– I think a lot of Georgia readers are a little stunned at the level of support showing up in the national polls for Obama, and you see indications of that surprise in the comments section. The Pew poll helps to explain that phenomenon.
Among white voters, Obama leads or is tied against Romney in every every section of the country except one: The South, where he trails by 36 points, 29-65. Among white men nationally, Obama trails Romney by 24 points, 36-60. So if you’re a white Southern male who talks mainly to other white Southern males, you get a skewed sense of the national conversation.
An important word of caution: I was leery of posting that final note because of where it might lead, but I did so because I think the data are interesting and we’re adult enough to deal with it. It’s important not to jump to the conclusion that race alone drives those numbers, although it would be equally foolish to claim that it plays no role whatsoever.
The fact is, Democrats of any race tend to do poorly among white Southerners, just as Republicans do poorly among black voters. Obama merely intensifies both trends.
Let’s try to keep this respectful.
– Jay Bookman
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Guides
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2012 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
697 comments Add your comment
Midori
February 13th, 2012
4:28 pm
FIRST!!
Midori
February 13th, 2012
4:30 pm
The fact is, Democrats of any race tend to do poorly among white Southerners, just as Republicans do poorly among black voters. Obama merely intensifies both trends.
The south, the south.
……………………………………………..
Steve
February 13th, 2012
4:31 pm
“So if you’re a white Southern male who talks mainly to other white Southern males, you get a skewed sense of the national conversation.”
Or if you watch Faux News.
Kamchak
February 13th, 2012
4:34 pm
An important word of caution: I was leery of posting that final note because of where it might lead, but I did so because I think the data are interesting and we’re adult enough to deal with it.
Well see.
I fully expect to see the word “plantation” from one person in particular.
Also, “the party of George Wallace” and “Robert Byrd dragon of the KKK.”
AmVet - You cons have got to ask yourself one question: Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya, punks?
February 13th, 2012
4:35 pm
Because of our antiquated electoral college, it really doesn’t much matter what the rural red states do.
All of the states in the Midwest and Dixie combined will never equal the northeast, west coast and upper Midwest.
And why John McCain II is going to see a very similar result as did his namesake…
Midori
February 13th, 2012
4:35 pm
Hi Kammy
got your popcorn ready?
Midori
February 13th, 2012
4:37 pm
speaking of the EC AmVet, I wonder will our elected officials ever get off their duffs and do something to address that antiquity?
Jay
February 13th, 2012
4:37 pm
Steve, that would certainly compound it.
And Kam, be the change that you seek in others?
ty webb
February 13th, 2012
4:38 pm
“I was leery of posting that final note…”
tsk tsk Jay…you’ll get exactly what you want with that one.
Brosephus
February 13th, 2012
4:40 pm
The fact is, Democrats of any race tend to do poorly among white Southerners, just as Republicans do poorly among black voters. Obama merely intensifies both trends.
So what if we Southerners march to the beat of a different drummer. He may not have any rhythm or technique, but he is OUR drummer!!!
AmVet - You cons have got to ask yourself one question: Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya, punks?
February 13th, 2012
4:41 pm
I have not read much about it, Midori, and I understand the concerns the Founding Fathers had with a popular vote, but rather than try to pollute that sacred document with their misogynistic and homophobic garbage, one would think that real conservatives would look at that as a possible worthwhile amendment…
Kamchak
February 13th, 2012
4:42 pm
Hiya, Midori!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
And Kam, be the change that you seek in others?
I’m not sure how much time you spent next door and CT’s place, Jay….
Jay
February 13th, 2012
4:42 pm
I’d say the gender difference is as least as interesting as the Southern data. I find a 26-point swing remarkable.
Paul
February 13th, 2012
4:42 pm
If this campaign is an example of how Romney’s experience running a business will translate into success in running the government…..
we may never know.
Brosephus
February 13th, 2012
4:45 pm
Paul
Don’t disappoint the Romneymaniacs out there. Abrupt disappointment might be too much for them to handle.
ByteMe
February 13th, 2012
4:48 pm
Curious that the poll wasn’t able to come up with enough people in the 18-29 age group, which was a group that strongly supported Obama last time.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
February 13th, 2012
4:48 pm
The gender swing is not surprising given the “War on the Female” that the GOP continues to wage. I suspect it will be even greater by election time.
Jay says to tell the truth (only as he sees it)
February 13th, 2012
4:50 pm
TaxPayer
February 13th, 2012
4:36 pm
the entire South and most other racist parts of the country was ran by good old Democrats.
- -whom are now known as “good old Republicans”.- -
That is an excellent point. Most cities in the South now have a Black Mayor and a mostly Black government. Blacks are no longer required to set in the back of buses. They have the same rights as Whites. That’s what happens when the democrats lose power and the Republicans gain power.
Now if we can get Planned Parenthood to stop killing off the minorities before they are born and the democrats to stop buying off the Black churches before elections, we can make some real progress.
Off to the gym.
Nice touching base with you, Jay. I like what you are doing with the blog. Liberals always need a place where they are protected from intelligent people.
Jay says to tell the truth (only as he sees it)
February 13th, 2012
4:51 pm
Keep Up the Good Fight!
– The War On The Female –
LOL!!
Sarah Palin.
nuff said.
Jay says to tell the truth (only as he sees it)
February 13th, 2012
4:51 pm
Keep Up the Good Fight!
– The War On The Female –
LOL!!
Sarah Palin.
nuff said.
Peadawg
February 13th, 2012
4:52 pm
Kamchak
February 13th, 2012
4:34 pm
We’ll let you be the first person to post those types of comments.
godless heathen
February 13th, 2012
4:53 pm
“So if you’re a white Southern male who talks mainly to other white Southern males, you get a skewed sense of the national conversation.”
Jay, I don’t remember the specifics, but I believe it was a NE female who said after the 2004 election something like, “I can’t believe Bush got re-elected. I don’t know anybody that voted for him.”
moonbat betty (Ineptocrats for obama)
February 13th, 2012
4:53 pm
Well that settles it.
Obama will be the next prez.
Maybe instead of burning all that campaign money, he will give it to charity?
Naw, doubt it.
Doggone/GA
February 13th, 2012
4:54 pm
” I wonder will our elected officials ever get off their duffs and do something to address that antiquity?”
There isn’t anything that needs to be done with it. The problem is not the EC requirement. The problem is how the EC votes are distributed. It’s the “winner take all” approach in the states that distorts it so widely. If the states would simply change to a proprotional distribution of the votes, the EC would work out MUCH closer to the popular vote and in most election would mirror IT.
That does not require a Constitutional change, it only requires election laws changes at the state level.
Brosephus
February 13th, 2012
4:54 pm
Nice touching base with you, Jay. I like what you are doing with the blog. Liberals always need a place where they are protected from intelligent people.
Obviously, they don’t need to be protected from you, or else he would have banned you already.
Kamchak
February 13th, 2012
5:00 pm
We’ll let you…
Thanks, peapup.
Is there anything else that I have to get your permission?
"Angry" White Republican Men Won't Vote For A Black Man
February 13th, 2012
5:00 pm
Obama has a 21-point lead over both Romney and Santorum among women. The margin is 59-38 percent.
Among men, Obama actually trails by five against Romney and three against Santorum.
*******************************************************************************************************************
The whole world now knows that the stereotypical image of a Black Man in the United States has been DEBUNKED by Obama.
Although it was never an issue among white women. They saw a “man” who cares for all.
And angry white men are livivd.
Jay
February 13th, 2012
5:01 pm
That would be the mirror image, godless.
Bill Orvis White
February 13th, 2012
5:01 pm
“So if you’re a white Southern male who talks mainly to other white Southern males, you get a skewed sense of the national conversation.”
Sorry Liberal Jay, just cannot resist your bait here. My Bible study partner, Roosevelt and his entire family are of color and they many other folk of color are embarrassed of this “president.” I speak with all the women in my church and they are as equally disgusted with the direction that this so-called president took this country: from economic freedom to an unfair, burdensome tax system; from a business-friendly atmosphere to an “administration” that hates the struggling businessman; from a culture of life to a culture of a disrespect for human life; from a pro-American foreign policy to a Euro-centric international policy that waves the white flag of surrender; from an energy independent nation to one in which we will have no resources due to the enviro-whacko crowd.
IT IS A FACT THAT WE ARE HEADED IN THE WRONG DIRECTION and poll after poll after poll confirms those facts that most of America KNOWS that we’re in uncertain times due to the Obama “administration’s” anti-businessism and pro-taxism.
If the honorable Governor Willard “Mitt” Romney earns the GOP nomination, there IS NO DOUBT in my mind that he will easily win the presidency.
Amen,
Bill
reebok
February 13th, 2012
5:04 pm
Romney may still stagger to the nomination, but he’s toast in the general election. His ‘let the auto companies die’ comment alone will cost him Michigan, and Obama has a lock on the big electroal college prizes of New York, New Jersey and California. This looks a lot like Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole in 1996.
TaxPayer
February 13th, 2012
5:06 pm
Jay says to tell the truth (only as he sees it)
February 13th, 2012
4:50 pm
TaxPayer
February 13th, 2012
4:36 pm
the entire South and most other racist parts of the country was ran by good old Democrats.
- -whom are now known as “good old Republicans”.- -
Your difficulty interpreting my response should be of concern to you especially if you had to pay for that “ability”. As a side note, you might also try replying on the thread that contains my post next time, you “intellectual”.
Jay
February 13th, 2012
5:07 pm
Actually, after a little digging, it appears SeesIt was most likely TruthBe, who was banned a while back for repeated and insistent namecalling, despite warnings.
Kamchak
February 13th, 2012
5:11 pm
Actually, after a little digging, it appears SeesIt was most likely TruthBe…
Well, I was certainly wrong about that one.
See jm, it’s really not that hard to say, “I was wrong.”
Midori
February 13th, 2012
5:12 pm
Actually, after a little digging, it appears SeesIt was most likely TruthBe…
hard to tell as they all sound so much alike….
TaxPayer
February 13th, 2012
5:15 pm
Those Vietnam-era southern conservative white male evangelical Republicans pretty much all look alike to me. Once you’ve seen one stodgy Tea Party tool, you’ve seen ‘em all.
Road Scholar
February 13th, 2012
5:18 pm
BOW: BOO HOO!
Brosephus
February 13th, 2012
5:19 pm
My Bible study partner, Roosevelt and his entire family are of color and they many other folk of color are embarrassed of this “president.”
Jay
You should put these into a coffee table book. You’d make a killing.
ByteMe
February 13th, 2012
5:19 pm
This looks a lot like Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole in 1996.
Except that people respected Dole more.
barking frog
February 13th, 2012
5:20 pm
the road to the white house is littered with telephone polls…
Jay
February 13th, 2012
5:22 pm
That was back in early December, Thulsa.
Time flies.
saywhat?
February 13th, 2012
5:24 pm
“So if you’re a white Southern male who talks mainly to other white Southern males, you get a skewed sense of the national conversation.”
Like I posted in last thread, when the Republicans lose in 2012, help convince them its because “they weren’t conservative enough” (yeah, right) and they will eat it right up. Then watch as they move even further into the extreme wastelands of the right, convinced that it is what the country wants.
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
February 13th, 2012
5:24 pm
Well, they come down here trying to change our good Southren way of doing things—-what did they expect we’d do? Why, we changed to Republican, that’s what we did. Anyhow, just like in the War of Northren Aggression, us Southreners will stand alone for what is right and good and godly. Sounds like those people in the North and Midwest and West just keep right on being wrong-headed about most everything.
Now I got to admit we might be in a real big suprize come election day. And I just don’t understand it.
Anyhow, it’s nothing that couldn’t be fixed by taking away the women’s vote. That was a big mistake right from the start. They hold it against a man if he does a manly thing like getting divorced a couple times or running around a little. And then they want to have their own way with this women’s rights junk.
I’m real discouraged by this poll. We might be in for a real butt-kicking come November. It don’t look good. And worse than that, the day after the election here will come No. 1 Foxy Lady on this blog telling us all to . . . well, you know. We never had No. 1 Foxy Ladys back in the good old days.
Have a good night everybody.
barking frog
February 13th, 2012
5:25 pm
Much to do has been made about the First Lady but I believe
she is quite popular with female voters and will continue to be.
AmVet - You cons have got to ask yourself one question: Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya, punks?
February 13th, 2012
5:25 pm
Bob Dole is an old school, pre-chickenhawk Republican. A man of great courage, class and statesmanship. I’m certainly no Republican, but as a fellow Kansan, I respected the hell out of that guy.
And just like they did with McCain and Hagel, these neo-cons hated him…
josef
February 13th, 2012
5:28 pm
ty webb
February 13th, 2012
4:38 pm
“I was leery of posting that final note…”
tsk tsk Jay…you’ll get exactly what you want with that one
******
Yep.
Jay
February 13th, 2012
5:29 pm
Just guessing here, BillyBob, but if you measure the deficit as a percentage of GDP, as many economists argue we should, it WILL have been cut from 10 percent in 2009 to 4.6 percent in 2013.
Jefferson
February 13th, 2012
5:30 pm
Anything can happen, don’t make any bets.
jm
February 13th, 2012
5:31 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-13/buffett-charity-flops-when-put-to-test-philip-maymin-correct-.html
buffett is wrong
Peadawg
February 13th, 2012
5:32 pm
“Much to do has been made about the First Lady but I believe
she is quite popular with female voters and will continue to be.”
Not a female, but personally I can’t stand her. Her “first time I’ve been proud of my country” comment rubbed me the wrong way.
Jay
February 13th, 2012
5:32 pm
Really, Josef, Ty?
Show me the posts that justify your cynicism.