GOP has to solve its problem with minority voters
In 1996, white voters comprised 83 percent of the electorate. In 2000, they comprised 81 percent of the electorate. In 2004, they comprised 77 percent of voters. In 2008, they comprised 75 percent. In 2012, the number will undoubtedly decline again, and will continue to do so.
The reason is obvious: From 2000 to 2009, the number of non-Hispanic white people living in the United States increased by roughly 4 million. During that same time frame, the population of other demographic groups grew by 22 million, more than five times the growth in white population.
Now look at the chart to the right. Over the past 12 years, the voting breakdown among white voters has remained remarkably stable. (The notable exception was 2004, when President Bush outperformed historic norms among every demographic group.) As you can see, the numbers in 2000 were almost exactly the same in 2008, and are almost exactly what the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll reports would happen if the 2012 election were held today.
(It also holds as far back as 1996, the earliest year in which I can find relevant exit-polling data. Bill Clinton got 43 percent of the white vote that year, while Bob Dole and Ross Perot combined for 55 percent.)
However, while the demographic split has remained more or less constant, the final outcome has not.
In 2000, that 54-42 advantage among white voters was produced a very slight Bush deficit in the popular vote, but it was good enough for an electoral college victory. In 2008, that same split produced a 7-point loss for John McCain, and the WaPo poll says that if the election were held today, Obama would win again by a similar margin.
For whatever reason, the Republican Party simply is not competitive among non-white voters. In fact, here’s the startling number that launched me on this bit of research: According to the Washington Post/ABC News poll released yesterday, Mitt Romney would get just 14 percent of the non-white vote.
The 2012 election is still too early to call, but longer term, the GOP simply has to address that issue or find itself in a permanent minority. If you keep collecting the same percentage of vote among a shrinking pool of voters, the math eventually becomes too much to overcome.
Rather than consider what role its own rhetoric and policies may be playing, the GOP’s basic approach to date has been to lay the blame on minority voters for not recognizing just how great the Republican Party really is. Not surprisingly, that message isn’t working so great.
I’d also suggest that ads such as this, and the mentality that finds it acceptable, aren’t helping any either. (And yes, to their credit, a number of Republican strategists have been highly critical of the approach.)
– Jay Bookman
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© 2012 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
427 comments Add your comment
Stonethrower
February 7th, 2012
9:06 am
Socialist
Normal
February 7th, 2012
9:07 am
What the GOP has to do is get off its “white only” stand…think that will happen?
arnold
February 7th, 2012
9:07 am
The Republican Party is also becoming non-competitive amoung white voters.
Brosephus - "Ever tried teaching a cinder block how to bark?"
February 7th, 2012
9:09 am
Jay
You got it wrong. The GOP does not have to do a thing. The minority voter needs to wake up and realize that only the GOP has their interests at heart. The Democratic Party only wants to keep them on the plantation by giving them freebies until their stomach aches. The GOP will ensure they pull themselves up by their bootstraps and climb the socio-economic ladder to success. If they’re too poor to have boots with straps they can use to pull themselves up, then tough sh*t because they obviously made poor choices and it’s all their fault.
I think I got all the talking points in… I’ll let one of the regular conservatives check to see if I missed anything.
TaxPayer
February 7th, 2012
9:10 am
I thought the GOP already solved their minority problems with illegal immigration laws at the state level. BTW, ad no work.
Steve
February 7th, 2012
9:10 am
GOP = greedy old [white] pigs
USinUK
February 7th, 2012
9:11 am
“In 1996, white voters comprised 83 percent of the electorate. In 2000, they comprised 81 percent of the electorate. In 2004, they comprised 77 percent of voters. In 2008, they comprised 75 percent. In 2012, the number will undoubtedly decline again, and will continue to do so.”
Jayski …
WHY do you think that the cries and howls of “voter fraud” have been so prevalent in recent years???
did you honestly think that they were trying to clamp down on the lilly white GOP???
Butch Cassidy
February 7th, 2012
9:11 am
Gosh, and even after Reagen granted amnesty to all those illeagal immigrants. The GOP just can’t win.
Bill Orvis White
February 7th, 2012
9:13 am
It’s because minorities are heavily influenced by the NY-Washington-DC-LA-LA Land media which glamorizes unmarried mothers raising Welfare babies and detailing to them how to feed off of the federal and state kitties. Conservatives are always in an uphill battle against the liberal media to explain to minorities that they are in fact welcome to join the rightful Republican Party of America and in their respective states. It’s a fact that minorities hold the same dear values that the Republican Party has in its solid, rightful platform.
Amen,
Bill
carlosgvv
February 7th, 2012
9:13 am
Both Romney and Gingrich have been aiming their message at the narrow-minded white Christian people who they think are now the votes they must have to win. They feel the reasonable Republican middle will vote for them no matter what they say. Black, Hispanic and other minority concerns mean little or nothing to them.
USinUK
February 7th, 2012
9:13 am
“I think I got all the talking points in”
I think you forgot baby-mamas …
barking frog
February 7th, 2012
9:14 am
Wow!, I wonder if white voters favor the GOP, does that mean
other ethnicities favor the Democrats or are they independents?
Also if the ‘illegals’ are made ‘legals’ , will they follow the ethnic
trend and does that mean the Republicans have a vested interest
in keeping them illegal and what party has a vested interest in
getting them legal?
Brosephus - "Ever tried teaching a cinder block how to bark?"
February 7th, 2012
9:14 am
White folks better get to f**kin’ and makin’ babies or else that majority’s gonna disappear permanently. Who would have thought that America would go from Jim Crow to a Brown Nation within 100 years???
There’s gonna be a lot of bodies spinnin’ in the grave. Just sayin’
larry
February 7th, 2012
9:15 am
” Its Obama’s fault”
Granny Godzilla
February 7th, 2012
9:16 am
“GOP has to solve its problem with minority voters”
No it doesn’t. It can hold its breath and stomp its feet and open its
wallet.
Frankly, my dears, I don’t give a damn.
Paul
February 7th, 2012
9:16 am
How long before we hear “that’s why we need to finish the border fence and move away from abstinence-only education and give out free birth control in schools.”
sigh……
2000 to 2004 there was a 10-point increase in the Hispanic vote for Pres Bush. While running for governor of Texas he got 40 percent of the Hispanic vote and 21 percent of the African-American vote.
Didn’t take long for grass-roots activists and Party Power Brokers to fritter that away.
Normal
February 7th, 2012
9:17 am
SoCo @ 0914…
Maybe this is the real reason they are so against contraceptives and such…
Mick
February 7th, 2012
9:17 am
In the preceding decade, florida was double bushwacked. Since jeb is fluent in spanish and married to a wife of mexican heritage, that had an appeal. The gop has done yeoman’s work at pushing the hispanic vote right into obama’s outstretched hands. Marco rubio is a dud and does not have hipanic crossover ability. Quite possibly even a one term senator. The republican party has nothing to offer and gets nothing in return. That is a sure fire strategy for defeat…to the dems advantage…
Pete Hoekstra
February 7th, 2012
9:17 am
Mee Rikey Lice!
.
.
(huh?…what’s wrong with liking rice?)
Brosephus - "Ever tried teaching a cinder block how to bark?"
February 7th, 2012
9:17 am
frog
There are Blacks that are more conservative than many of the pseudo-conservatives here. Those Blacks tend to be older and financially secure. The downside to them being older is that they understand the racial code talk far better than the younger generations, so they will not support a party that goes out of it’s way to get the White vote in that manner. I suspect many Whites would feel the exact same way if the shoe was on the other foot.
Jay
February 7th, 2012
9:18 am
Ad fixed.
Granny Godzilla
February 7th, 2012
9:18 am
Speaking of voter fraud….
“Indiana Voter Fraud: Convicted Secretary of State Accuses Gov. Mitch Daniels of Same Crime”
My oh my, what an interesting headline.
Brosephus - "Ever tried teaching a cinder block how to bark?"
February 7th, 2012
9:19 am
Normal
I didn’t think about that. So that’s why they’re up in arms about Obama and the contraceptive thing!! They think Obama’s trying to install the Brown Nation right away.
Adam
February 7th, 2012
9:19 am
I say we let the free market solve the GOP on its own
Mick
February 7th, 2012
9:19 am
brosephus
I’ve seen david pastorius in some small venues – he plays lead bass and is a monster. It’s unbelievable how some have that pop and thump technique mastered into a fine art, I’m in kindergarten compared to them…
Butch Cassidy
February 7th, 2012
9:20 am
I’m not sure what the big deal is, you just take one look at Gingrich and Romney and you know that they are champions of the minority cause.
barking frog
February 7th, 2012
9:21 am
And yet, President Obama has increased deportation, has
raised no loud voice against the fence or for legalization
of the ‘illegals’. Is this his way of catering to the legal
Hispanic community or does he just believe in enforcing
the law?
Brosephus - "Ever tried teaching a cinder block how to bark?"
February 7th, 2012
9:23 am
Jay
You could have left the ad broken. That dude might replace Rove as the assiest on my jackass list.
GG
You forgot to mention the SOS was prosecuted by a Republican Special Prosecutor who thought he was guilty. Maybe the GOP needs to get Bocephus and other conservative musicians to do a song similar to what the Stop the Violence group did for rap back in the 80’s.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxyYP_bS_6s
Butch Cassidy
February 7th, 2012
9:23 am
barking frog – ” Is this his way of catering to the legal
Hispanic community or does he just believe in enforcing
the law?”
Actually, it’s all a smokescreen. Obama is secretly training them as members of his Thug Army as outlined in Obamacare.
daemonian
February 7th, 2012
9:24 am
It’s not just race, it’s also age. It looks more and more as if “GOP” stands for “Grumpy Old People,” many of whom, by the way, were it not for Medicare, would have passed on already, clearing the stage for the young. The future belongs to younger generations, not these folk. The GOP needs to check out how their reactionary message is faring with voters of any color under forty — not so well.
Steve
February 7th, 2012
9:24 am
Funny how so many forget that there are a ton of white trash on the dole these days…in fact, most of welfare recipients are white people, who probably beat their spouses with their Bible and vote GOP.
Stevie Ray
February 7th, 2012
9:25 am
BROCEPHUS,
I agree with your comments although the perpetuation of fatherless children, immigration laws not enforced, and growing entitlements often do more harm than good. The democrats were effective in getting out the non-white vote in 2008 due to BO BS…now that nothing has changed for these folks for the good, I wonder if they will vote in numbers similar to 2008….
Clinton dimissed recommendation from his staff in 1990’s to have visa expirations synched with state drivers license expirations. He decided not to do this as he would lose the hispanic vote….some would argue this played a role in 911 since more than a couple of the hijackers got pulled for traffic violations after visa expirations….who know if that would change the outcome.
The DEMS are definitely the party that panders to illegals (do they really want the requirement for proof of citizenship for voting purposes eliminated?…I may be wrong about this)…also, the perpetuation of incentive for broken homes needs elimination to the extent it exists…
Adam
February 7th, 2012
9:25 am
The 2012 election is still too early to call, but longer term, the GOP simply has to address that issue or find itself in a permanent minority. If you keep collecting the same percentage of vote among a shrinking pool of voters, the math eventually becomes too much to overcome.
Or, you could change the voting rules. Here’s a 3 step plan:
1) Make it tougher for minorities to vote somehow. Hey look! A lot of them don’t have photo IDs! Let’s make that a voting requirement and shut down DMVs during their typical hours off work so they can’t get them easily.
2) Change the electoral college rules in states the typically go blue by making some percentage of them go to Republicans
3) Change the electoral college rules in state that typically go red to be winner take all if they are not already
PROBLEM SOLVED! Oh, if only they would actually think of and try to implement some of these changes. Oh wait…..
Oscar
February 7th, 2012
9:25 am
Anyone, white or not, making less than $400,000 a year is acting against their own interest. Does not make sense why they would do that.
Brosephus - "Ever tried teaching a cinder block how to bark?"
February 7th, 2012
9:26 am
Mick
I wish I could lay down on the bass like that. I’ve been thinking of buying one and seeing if I can get a lesson or two. At one time, Charlie Singleton from Cameo was a bit of an acquaintance. I’ll have to see if I can get him to teach me a thing or two.
“Self destruction, you’re headed for self destruction.”
–Thomas Jefferson
Midori
February 7th, 2012
9:27 am
LOL – Saw that last night.
what will they run an ad saying next?
“me love you long time”?
Cosby
February 7th, 2012
9:27 am
They can solve it…promise them the world and tell them they do not have to work for it, nor do they hold any responsibility for them selves…I have watched through out my life as the politicians, the NAACP, Jessi Jackson, Al sharpton have all worked to put the minorities on the plantation and now I have seen the process speed up under Barry Aka Obama…wonder if they will ever learn that living in substandard housing provided by the Federal government, the sub standard medical care of the Federal Government or the substandard education by the Federal Government is not a great life style…but never mind, lets tax the 1% and continue to provide for SLAVERY!!! they owe us!!
Stevie Ray
February 7th, 2012
9:28 am
BARKINGFROG,
Where is the revised immigration laws that BO promised when the whole AZ thingy popped up? Also, why didn’t BO invite any of the border governors to the most recent immigration summit? Kudos for him inviting Eva Longoria….a true brain trust for such an issue. Fact is BO’s decisions are no less political than any others. If he pushed too hard he definitely would lose votes…just like had he allowed GM to bankrupt before the bailout…unions would have whacked him….
Adam
February 7th, 2012
9:28 am
Oscar: Anyone, white or not, making less than $400,000 a year is acting against their own interest. Does not make sense why they would do that.
They would rather trade being somewhat monetarily dependent for being dependent on other people thinking for them.
barking frog
February 7th, 2012
9:29 am
Brosephus, indeed, I have seen some of ‘those Blacks’ on juries
and they convict more readily than supposed conservative
whites.I often wonder who speaks for them. I remember the
old lady in atlanta who when the Olympics were here said it
was the first time in years that she had been unafraid to sit
on her front porch due to increased policing.
Adam
February 7th, 2012
9:29 am
Cosby: Another poster who thinks the poor are poor because they think it’s a good idea.
Jay
February 7th, 2012
9:30 am
Bro, I think Cosby just schooled you on how that is done.
Butch Cassidy
February 7th, 2012
9:30 am
Didi anyone catch Gretta last night when she was interviewing Ron Paul? I found it interesting when she asked him directly what he would do as President in regard the situation in Syria, Iran and Egypt. He never answered the question, he just kept saying that he wouldn’t have gotten us involved in the first place. I take from that statement that the GOP leadership model will be based on theoretical hindsight rather than actual solutions.
Midori
February 7th, 2012
9:31 am
White folks better get to f**kin’ and makin’ babies or else that majority’s gonna disappear permanently. Who would have thought that America would go from Jim Crow to a Brown Nation within 100 years???
a few years back I had a friend (who is white btw) tell me that is why GOP politicans are all against abortion, as they are seeing their numbers dwindle.
This was about 10 years ago.
TaxPayer
February 7th, 2012
9:32 am
White folks better get to f**kin’ and makin’ babies or else that majority’s gonna disappear permanently.
They would if they could get their women folk to quit taking their birth control pills and aborting all those young Republicans. I mean, it’s not for a lack of Viagra sales. Business has risen steadily.
Joe Hussein Mama
February 7th, 2012
9:32 am
Mick — “Since jeb is fluent in spanish and married to a wife of mexican heritage”
She’s *Colombian,* not Mexican.
Your comparison is similar to claiming that spaghetti is Swedish cuisine.
Brosephus - "Ever tried teaching a cinder block how to bark?"
February 7th, 2012
9:32 am
Stevie Ray: The DEMS are definitely the party that panders to illegals (do they really want the requirement for proof of citizenship for voting purposes eliminated?…I may be wrong about this)…
You really wanna make that claim, even after Obama’s set records on the number of deportations? I can tell you that, regardless of their political leanings, immigration officers are trying to do their jobs to the best of their abilities. I consider myself a left-leaning centrist, and I go to work everyday with the intent to send someone back home.
also, the perpetuation of incentive for broken homes needs elimination to the extent it exists…
Lawmakers have the ability to do that sooner than better. Homes were broken because of the “war on drugs” and the dumbass laws that accompanied. When crack cocaine possession (minorities affected more) carried a much harsher mandatory sentence than powdered cocaine (white’s affected more) carried in larger amounts, you have nothing but the law to blame. Add that to the fact that Black and minority unemployment is twice the national average, coupled with people with criminal histories being less likely to be hired into entry positions, and you have the perfect recipe for almost permanently crippling a segment of our society.
Lord Help Us
February 7th, 2012
9:32 am
It ain’t that hard…
American is changing means, ‘We The People…’ are changing.
Based on our Constitution, if a political party cannot adapt to these changes, they are toast…
willydoit?
February 7th, 2012
9:35 am
The biggest problem with the GOP is that they are spineless and have forgotten how to fight for what they believe in.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
February 7th, 2012
9:35 am
Hmmmm….. wonder why that add did not feature FoxConn workers trapped in their dormatories 8 strangers or more to a room with nets to keep people jumping off the buildings from killing themselves. That would have been sooooo much more insightful when they say “we take your jobs”