In Florida primary, the margin will matter
With the voting booths scheduled to open tomorrow in Florida, pollsters are all over the place in their predictions about the outcome.
Everybody has Mitt Romney winning. The discrepancy is in the predicted margin, which matters in a primary.
A Suffolk University poll has Romney up by 20, 47 percent to 27 percent. A Quinnipiac poll puts Romney up by 14, 43 percent to 29 percent, up from a nine-point margin a week ago.
But Georgia-based InsiderAdvantage claims the Romney-Gingrich race is tightening, with Romney up by five percentage points, 36-31 percent. Matt Towery, InsiderAdvantage’s founder and owner, has ties to Gingrich, which might be cause for caution. But Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning firm, has it 39-32.
That’s a fairly wide spread this close to an election, which means somebody is going to have egg on their face when this is over. If the tighter projections prove valid, Gingrich has some justification for continuing to fight, perhaps all the way to the convention as he promises.
A margin of 20 points or more, on the other hand, would pretty much spell the end of the race. That’s particularly true if exit polls show Romney beating Gingrich even among conservative Republicans.
Of course, such a defeat doesn’t necessarily mean that an increasingly bitter Gingrich would withdraw from the race. He feels abused and ill-used by his party’s establishment, and he may decide to stick in the race just to be obstinate. Back in the Iowa days, you may remember, Gingrich was trying to convince everyone that he had really changed and was no longer the angry, combative politician he used to be.
That Grandpa Gingrich act didn’t last very long.
– Jay Bookman
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334 comments Add your comment
They BOTH sucked
January 30th, 2012
6:45 pm
TD
Check it out
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Clinton_Chronicles
That Fawell, what a great guy he was……….
ld
January 30th, 2012
6:45 pm
Someone brakes your legs–makes it harder to win a race, even if you, supposedly, otherwise have a “fair” chance; and the US economy DID have broken legs when Obama took office. When Bush took office, there were ‘bruises’ but not ‘brakes’ and it was on the mend–not needing billions in fix-it fund to be given to PRIVATE, for mega-profit banks.
that said, ‘following’ the mistakes of Bush w/a second ‘bailout’ of FAILED banks was really STUPIDITY, not leadership
josef
January 30th, 2012
6:46 pm
jewcowboy
Nope. It’s not the speed, per se. It went a lot faster on DADT than I expected (but then the overwhelming majority of the American populace was for repeal), I just haven’t forgotten Prop 8 and Preacher Warren…HE hasn’t done much more than go with the flow, and the flow has been in our favor…I’ll give him a point or two in not being outspokenly opposed, but let’s not go giving him credit he’s not due…and, really, what has he done for gay rights other than sign DADT repeal and take a rather lukewarm stance on DOMA…? My objection was and is, don’t go calling yourself a Fierce Adovocate when you ain’t….
Kamchak
January 30th, 2012
6:47 pm
I’ll be back in a few hours to examine your litany of excuses to see if any of them will hold a drop of water. Odds are none will but I’ll check anyway just to amuse myself.
Backing out the door while claiming victory.
josef
January 30th, 2012
6:47 pm
jewcowboy
And while gay rights is my issue, he’s also been tepid at best on human rights in general…
Midori
January 30th, 2012
6:47 pm
if I recall correctly Thulsa, I offered that link to show you that some of the same accusations made about Clinton were also made about Bush.
It’s your problem if you drew other conclusions.
Period.
My feelings were along the lines that it could be true. Unlike you and your firebreathing pomposity regarding Juanita B., et al.
Why all the “supposed” rapes you like to keep tossing out contain the gospel truth, and mine held to your hypocritical and expected scorn?
Your’e a legend in your own mind.
ld
January 30th, 2012
6:48 pm
Maybe Romney at least knows how to use actual ‘business’ math; Newt, we can expect, to have been corrupted by prior use of “Congressional Math” during his term as Speaker.
getalife
January 30th, 2012
6:48 pm
It is called la la land.
Midori,
doomy does write like RW but they all sound the same with their deflection to blame others and never take any blame.
And the rw talking points of course.
F. Sinkwich
January 30th, 2012
6:48 pm
Col. Allen West:
“Take your message of equality of achievement, take your message of economic dependency, take your message of enslaving the entrepreneurial will and spirit of the American people somewhere else. You can take it to Europe, you can take it to the bottom of the sea, you can take it to the North Pole, but get it the hell out of the United States of America”
Kinda says it all. Way to go Mr. Congessman!
ld
January 30th, 2012
6:49 pm
Hint: Congressional math believes SSA still has $ it ‘owes’ in benefits–as opposed to the IOU’s it actually has.
Kamchak
January 30th, 2012
6:51 pm
Col. Allen West:
Kinda late to the party with that particular ilkiness.
Midori
January 30th, 2012
6:51 pm
word, Getalife.
josef
January 30th, 2012
6:53 pm
Actually, imo, Allen West is something we can all be proud of as Americans. We have now reached a stage in our progress that black folks can contribute their own spectacular dip sh*t. Equality? Ain’t it grand!
Midori
January 30th, 2012
6:55 pm
TBS,
Yet, according to Loon Doom – it’s 100 percent, unvarnished truth, while I need to be committed for bringing up the things said about Bush.
See how his mind works. Rather, doesn’t?
Kamchak
January 30th, 2012
6:55 pm
If a cow laughs hard enough, does ilk come out of it’s nose?
ty webb
January 30th, 2012
6:56 pm
“We have now reached a stage in our progress that black folks can contribute their own spectacular dip sh*t.”
tell me about it…some even get paid to “resist we much” on TV.
Jay
January 30th, 2012
6:56 pm
No Kam, it comes out its ose.
F. Sinkwich
January 30th, 2012
6:56 pm
“Kinda late to the party with that particular…”
Genius and truth bares repeating.
josef
January 30th, 2012
6:57 pm
K’chak
@ 6:55
Jay
January 30th, 2012
6:58 pm
But as a test, I propose we read Thulsa’s economic postings to the cow just to be sure.
kayaker 71
January 30th, 2012
6:58 pm
Allen West…. another out of the gang Republican that the establishment will have a little hard time dealing with unless they vote to abolish his district, which is on the books. He speaks his mind, has a lot to say and usually is spot on. He is the left’s worst nightmare when it comes to reality. Right on, Congressman West….. may your tenure on the Congressional Black Caucus be a short one.
josef
January 30th, 2012
7:00 pm
“Genius and truth bares repeating.”
They should keep their repeating covered…
JAY and K’Chak
That’s just udderly funny….
Midori
January 30th, 2012
7:00 pm
But as a test, I propose we read Thulsa’s economic postings to the cow just to be sure.
JAY!!!
The poor cow!!!!
Midori
January 30th, 2012
7:01 pm
moooove over, Josef
Kamchak
January 30th, 2012
7:01 pm
But as a test, I propose we read Thulsa’s economic postings to the cow just to be sure.
http://www.theinterpretersfriend.org/misc/humr/laugh.gif
getalife
January 30th, 2012
7:02 pm
I propose to find the exact center of America and move government to this center and away from k street.
josef
January 30th, 2012
7:02 pm
JAY
Haven’t you already…?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/c1/Vache_qui_rit.png
jconservative
January 30th, 2012
7:03 pm
Newt will stay in the race until the last minute. His goal is to keep Romney out of the White House.
Revenge! Revenge for the ad campaigns in Iowa and now Florida.
Newt is thin skinned and can’t stand the heat in the kitchen. He complains about how he is treated by the Romney ads. Wait till he sees the Obama ads. They will make the Romney ads look like a pat on the back.
Newt is all talk.
josef
January 30th, 2012
7:03 pm
midori
F. Sinkwich
January 30th, 2012
7:07 pm
Guffaw.
You libs ilks are a hoot.
josef
January 30th, 2012
7:10 pm
Sinkwich
“You libs ilks are a hoot.”
Gee, and I thought the GOP was the OWL Party…
“Out with Logic! On with Lunacy!”
F. Sinkwich
January 30th, 2012
7:13 pm
What does it say on the bottom of a lib ilk Coke bottle?
“Open other end”
Jm
January 30th, 2012
7:13 pm
Can we establish one thing.
There is no right wing conspiracy. There is no powerful group sitting in a smoke filled room. AND THERE IS NO “REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT”.
There. Now the decks are cleared on that.
0311/1811
January 30th, 2012
7:13 pm
Why did Hillary quit last time when she was running for president and badmouthing Obama ?
F. Sinkwich
January 30th, 2012
7:15 pm
Why did the lib ilk cross the street?
To get to the welfare office.
getalife
January 30th, 2012
7:16 pm
There is a vast rw conspiracy and it started with a birth certificate against our President.
I have noticed the lack of scandals so this President can’t be smeared by the vast rw conspiracy.
They keep trying and they got nothing.
getalife
January 30th, 2012
7:18 pm
“Why did Hillary quit last time when she was running for president and badmouthing Obama ?”
Because he won.
josef
January 30th, 2012
7:19 pm
Why did the lib ilk cross the street?
To show the conservative possum it could be done….
estúpido
January 30th, 2012
7:20 pm
Die you shaggy haired lib ilkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk!!
getalife
January 30th, 2012
7:20 pm
“Why did the lib ilk cross the street?”
To get the con ilk out of the ditch.
F. Sinkwich
January 30th, 2012
7:21 pm
How many lib ilks does it take to change a light bulb?
None. They enjoy the dark.
kayaker 71
January 30th, 2012
7:22 pm
Liberals are a curious lot. They scream to high heaven when a conservative criticizes a black liberal but when we give praise to black Republicans, we are ignored. Jan Brewer is now being described as a racist on her tilt with Bozo. Hell, I don’t even like the half white part of him.
estúpido
January 30th, 2012
7:23 pm
Sarah Palin:
Annoy a lib ilk, vote Newt!
Jm
January 30th, 2012
7:25 pm
Josef 6:47
I get the importance of that issue to you. But at the end of the day, I imagine you’re not a single issue voter. I used to be, but that changed 5 or 6 years ago.
On the full spectrum of issues, jobs, fixing government, taking on the big challenges, Josef, perhaps you’d consider voting for a guy like mitt over Obama. Just a few thoughts there….
estúpido
January 30th, 2012
7:27 pm
Gradual progression in Newt Gingrich’s campaign rhetorical tactics:
Only a vote for me will stop our party from nominating a Massachusetts moderate.
Only a vote for me will stop our party from nominating a Massachusetts liberal.
Only a vote for me will stop our party from nominating a Massachusetts lib ilk.
At which point no more terrible epithet was possible.
Jm
January 30th, 2012
7:27 pm
Kayaker
That was funny
Keep Up the Good Fight!
January 30th, 2012
7:28 pm
Teaparty: In my day, we didn’t ask why the ilk crossed the road. Someone told us that the ilk had crossed the road, and that was good enough for us.
0311/1811
January 30th, 2012
7:28 pm
getalife:
Why did she badmouth Obama ?
AmVet - “A lot of so-called conservatives don’t know what the word means." ~Barry Goldwater
January 30th, 2012
7:29 pm
I’m not sure what a “conservative Republican” is; I thought we are all Conservative…
Woo Hoo!
Thanks, Reb. That is the biggest laugh I’ve had today!
Followed very closely by this: Gingrich was trying to convince everyone that he had really changed and was no longer the angry, combative politician he used to be.
Good times in Delusionville…
getalife
January 30th, 2012
7:29 pm
Scout hole,
Because she is a fighter.
0311/1811
January 30th, 2012
7:30 pm
Healine (Washington Post): “Obama: The most polarizing president. Ever.”
0311/1811
January 30th, 2012
7:30 pm
getalife:
Because she was telling the truth !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SazBzvQ0ZAM&feature=related
Jm
January 30th, 2012
7:31 pm
Newt: “you cant debate someone who isn’t honest”
Too funny
jays Brain
January 30th, 2012
7:31 pm
January 30, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Treasury ups auto bailout loss estimate
By David Shepardson Detroit News Washington Bureau
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120130/AUTO01/201300393/Treasury-ups-auto-bailout-loss-estimate?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|s
Hey Jay I keep reminding you to report on this ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Lets not forget to report on how obama screwed the taxpayers.
And jay, remember to remind the readers that obama GAVE the
greedy auto workers half of GM. They had to pay NOTHING.
Just reminding you to report for once jay and stop being a waterboy
for the leftist.
0311/1811
January 30th, 2012
7:34 pm
And you wonder about the slide into depravity of our major networks ?
Headline: “NBC drops donkey semen episode of ‘FEAR FACTOR’… ”
“Donkey semen will not be served on network TV tomorrow night — the”Fear Factor” episode featuring the stunt has been yanked … at least according to a website where NBC posts its media releases.
The controversial episode is entitled, “Hee Haw! Hee Haw!” An NBC media release teased it by saying the contestants will eat “the unimaginable.”
getalife
January 30th, 2012
7:34 pm
jm,
Why does willard have a problem with the truth?
He can’t remember his positions because of all the flip flops.
josef
January 30th, 2012
7:34 pm
Jm
That’s one of my major issues…I have about six or eight that determine my vote…
And NO a thousand times over I wouldn’t vote for a Mitt over Obama…he’s a Republican for the love of G-d! Granny’s grey ghost would rise and smite me if I ever voted for the Party of Diocletian of the Potomac
Seriously, though, the issue can be put on the back burner for those of y’all not directly and daily concerned with it…I don’t have that luxury…
jm
January 30th, 2012
7:36 pm
This Week: “the most recent debates were not your best, what went wrong?”
Newt: “I was amazed.”
Amazed with his failure? huh.
0311/1811
January 30th, 2012
7:36 pm
More Global Warming News ……………..
Headline: “Severe cold snap kills 36 in eastern Europe”
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/01/30/severe-cold-snap-kills-32-in-eastern-europe/?test=latestnews
josef
January 30th, 2012
7:37 pm
SCOUT
“And you wonder about the slide into depravity of our major networks ?”
Yep, them and the good G-d fearing heretics and apostates of the family values party….
Kamchak
January 30th, 2012
7:37 pm
“I fought the law and the law won.”
– Thomas Jefferson
getalife
January 30th, 2012
7:37 pm
Newt: “I was amazed.”
Finish the quote jm.
AmVet - “A lot of so-called conservatives don’t know what the word means." ~Barry Goldwater
January 30th, 2012
7:37 pm
This great news brought to you by your moron “leaders” in the Bush administration and the Pentagon…
Reporting from Washington — After the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003, the George W. Bush administration flooded the conquered country with so much cash to pay for reconstruction and other projects in the first year that a new unit of measurement was born.
Pentagon officials determined that one giant C-130 Hercules cargo plane could carry $2.4 billion in shrink-wrapped bricks of $100 bills. They sent an initial full planeload of cash, followed by 20 other flights to Iraq by May 2004 in a $12-billion haul that U.S. officials believe to be the biggest international cash airlift of all time.
This month, the Pentagon and the Iraqi government are finally closing the books on the program that handled all those Benjamins. But despite years of audits and investigations, U.S. Defense officials still cannot say what happened to $6.6 billion in cash — enough to run the Los Angeles Unified School District or the Chicago Public Schools for a year, among many other things.
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/13/world/la-fg-missing-billions-20110613
Recon 2533 1811
January 30th, 2012
7:40 pm
Romney/West…look out Democrats the assault team will soon be staging.
Kamchak
January 30th, 2012
7:45 pm
“NBC drops donkey semen episode of ‘FEAR FACTOR’… ”
So?
This is supposed to be on my radar, why?
Orange12
January 30th, 2012
7:45 pm
It’s a winner take all state. We all know what close is good for and it isn’t this state. 2nd place means second place nothing more.
getalife
January 30th, 2012
7:48 pm
“Vice President Joe Biden confessed this weekend that he advised President Obama not to launch the mission that ultimately killed Osama bin Laden last spring.”
Could be an opening for a new V. P.
seabeau
January 30th, 2012
7:48 pm
Any man who would tell his wife,who was in the fight for her life with cancer,that he wanted a “Open Marriage” is a sorry scum , who doesn’t deserve to be dogcatcher much less President of the US.
Kamchak
January 30th, 2012
7:50 pm
Any man who would tell his wife,who was in the fight for her life with cancer,that he wanted a “Open Marriage” is a sorry scum…
Wrong marriage.
josef
January 30th, 2012
7:50 pm
seabeau
Putting it mildly….
AmVet - “A lot of so-called conservatives don’t know what the word means." ~Barry Goldwater
January 30th, 2012
7:50 pm
In a perverse sort of way, I’m kind of hoping that Naughty Newtie takes Florida. Gawd knows that state is crawling with whack jobs, so it’s possible.
It would be rather fun to see the mass Gooper hysteria and widespread intra-tribu cannibalization.
Great fodder for bloggers and stand up comedians…
jm
January 30th, 2012
7:51 pm
getalife 7:34
very funny
josef
January 30th, 2012
7:52 pm
K’chak
Shoo-eee, why should we try to keep track of his marriages? Even he won’t try that without a teleprompter…
Midori
January 30th, 2012
7:52 pm
The Principled Pachyderm
http://a1.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/399912_371987292826788_108038612554992_1462683_1105090148_n.jpg
jm
January 30th, 2012
7:54 pm
josef 7:34 – understood. I put my number one issue on the back burner (the environment). None of that is relevant if people don’t have jobs, if people can’t make a decent living, and if people aren’t optimistic about the future. (and if our country goes down the fiscal toilet)
Kamchak
January 30th, 2012
7:55 pm
josef
Newt’s a big enough sleaze-bucket without having to rewrite his personal history.
Recon 2533 1811
January 30th, 2012
7:56 pm
“Vice President Joe Biden confessed this weekend that he advised President Obama not to launch the mission that ultimately killed Osama bin Laden last spring.”
“Could be an opening for a new V. P.”
Old Joe was only trying to tell the pres what he wanted to hear at that time and then along came Panetta, Hillary among others who told the pres that the word will leak out and if you don’t approve this opportunity to take OBL out the voters will take you out in November. Poor old Joe will now have to fall on his sword to avoid getting kicked out of the administration in disgrace.
josef
January 30th, 2012
7:56 pm
midori
@ 7:52
They does seem to have a sliding scale on they absolutes…apostates and heretics…
jm
January 30th, 2012
7:56 pm
getalife 7:37 – yeah, it was followed with a bunch of stuttering, incoherent blather about how Romney lies
Romney may dance, but he doesn’t outright lie, and to the extent one wants to say he does, he lies a lot less than the other pols
at least he’s not pandering to each constituency the way Newt is (and Obama does)
jm
January 30th, 2012
7:57 pm
this volunteer calling software thing is still in its infancy technologically…..
josef
January 30th, 2012
7:58 pm
K’chak
@ 7:55
Agreed…but you need a program just to keep up…
Jack
January 30th, 2012
7:58 pm
In spite of of all his liberal palaver, I don’t believe Bookman is going to vote for a man that wants him to pay for someone else’s health insurance.
Recon 2533 1811
January 30th, 2012
7:59 pm
Moderated at 7:44pm really? Well double standards do exist on Jay’s left wing friendly blog.
ragnar danneskjold
January 30th, 2012
8:00 pm
Agree with the substance of the essay, disagree with the typical leftist slurs toward the end.
Welcome to the Occupation
January 30th, 2012
8:01 pm
In spite of of all his liberal palaver, I don’t believe Bookman is going to vote for a man that wants him to pay for someone else’s health insurance.
Because god knows paying into something that just goes right out to pay for someone else is so, so ….
so uninsurance-like!
josef
January 30th, 2012
8:02 pm
Jm
Plain and simple, Mitt and the rest of them have made it amply clear they don’t want my vote…
jm
January 30th, 2012
8:02 pm
Oh trotsky. Cheer up.
0311/1811
January 30th, 2012
8:02 pm
Kammie:
Sorry, it’s not even depraved enough for the calilbrations on “your” radar which is why you missed it.
Doggone/GA
January 30th, 2012
8:03 pm
“In spite of of all his liberal palaver, I don’t believe Bookman is going to vote for a man that wants him to pay for someone else’s health insurance.”
Why not? We’re already doing that and have been since health insurance was invented.
0311/1811
January 30th, 2012
8:03 pm
josef:
The last real “Son” ??
http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/knoxnews/obituary.aspx?n=james-f-brown&pid=155672760&eid
jm
January 30th, 2012
8:05 pm
josef
you know Romney isn’t wildly anti gay rights….. (and as with all things Mitt, at one point he was for them)
Obama has explicitly said he isn’t for gay marriage.
TaxPayer
January 30th, 2012
8:05 pm
AmVet @ 7:37,
So, how many Solyndras does that add up to.
THE TRUTH
January 30th, 2012
8:06 pm
Geesh, get a life Jay, why don’t you just tell everyone how much you love Obozo and how you hate every one else, you write the same old rhetoric every day, two and three times a day, sure you have your loyal followers, but the rest of us are not swallowing your contant GOP bashing.
jm
January 30th, 2012
8:07 pm
josef
check it out, if only for entertainment value
http://www.logcabin.org/
Keep Up the Good Fight!
January 30th, 2012
8:11 pm
Someone has missed the point of Fear Factor, the commonality of foods in other cultures that would be “depraved” to other cultures, and of course that NBC does not make the content of most shows, it purchases them. But hey other than that, the rabbit hole is open for travel.
Or was the headline point that the donkey sperm is part of protecting the fetus?
Soothsayer
January 30th, 2012
8:15 pm
Well, I go away for couple of days and, my goodness! They’re dropping donkey semen out of C-130s and shrink wrapping $100 bills to pay off Iraqi insurgents.
And poor ol’ King Dumbass (’member him?) didn’t have nothing to do with no recession. It was them Democrats that snuck in there in 2006 what done it all. It was just a plot to get BO elected.
Not mention what a terrible idear it was to bail out them auto companies who are really just fronts for unions.
All this against a backdrop of Gnute having a jumping up and down temper tantrum ’cause them RepugNOwecan’ts just won’t come around to his way of thinking.
What a great Monday!
josef
January 30th, 2012
8:22 pm
Scout
@ 8:03
Neat…sounds like he may have been a liberal…
Jm
Wildly anti-gay? Well, that depends on your sliding scale, doesn’t it? It’s like that exchange with jewcowboy earlier, at least with the Santorum and his ilk
you know where you stand…and, yeah, it’s why I don’t join the all-hail-hosannah lot on Obama…Lukewarm Adovocate at best…not exactly back of the bus, but not the front either…know you place, you know…
Recon 2533 1811
January 30th, 2012
8:23 pm
Missed all of this donkey stuff ,so I’m not sure about the donkey sperm posts. Could it be that the donkey, a symbol of democrats has undergone a vasectomy and therefore can no longer participate in the propagation of new little democrats. Maybe that’s what has jay’s minions upset with their skivvies stuffed up so tightly this evening where the sun doesn’t shine.
josef
January 30th, 2012
8:24 pm
THE TRUTH
It’s his job, Mahn…
Welcome to the Occupation
January 30th, 2012
8:25 pm
Evening jm!