Why the Gingrich win bodes poorly for the GOP
“Over the past few weeks we’ve seen a frontal assault on free enterprise. We expected this from President Obama. We didn’t anticipate some Republicans would join him. That’s a mistake for our party, and for our nation…. Those who pick up the weapons of the left today will find them turned against us tomorrow.”
– Mitt Romney
in his concession speech
in South Carolina Saturday
————————
Newt Gingrich’s impressive 12-point victory margin in South Carolina has touched off enormous doubt among national Republicans, much of it centered on Mitt Romney’s perceived weaknesses as a candidate.
To cite just one example of many, here’s Mark Steyn at NationalReview.com:
“Even if you don’t mind Romneycare, or the abortion flip-flop, or any of the rest, there’s a more basic problem: He’s not a natural campaigner, and on the stump he instinctively recoils from any personal connection with the voters…. For a guy running as a chief exec applying proven private-sector solutions, his campaign looks awfully like an unreformable government bureaucracy: big, bloated, overstaffed, burning money, slow to react, and all but impossible to change.”
While there’s certainly some truth to that, I think the Republican problem is much more deep-seated than the failings of a particular candidate. Newt Gingrich not only exposed Romney as a flawed politician; he exposed the fact that their economic message sucks.
Look at what happened: In a Republican primary in a deeply conservative state, Gingrich rode to victory by employing the Democratic line of attack against Mitt. What does that tell you about the power of that critique in the general election, among a much less conservative electorate?
(UPDATE at 11:50: Two new polls out of Florida:
Insider Advantage puts Gingrich up 34-26.
Rasmussen has Gingrich up 41-32.)
It’s really quite stunning, in ways that a lot of people don’t yet comprehend.
It’s true, of course, that the economy was just one of many factors that affected the outcome in South Carolina. For example, Gingrich outperformed Romney by 2-1 among evangelical voters, and given Newt’s personal history, that’s amazing. Romney’s religion had to have played a role in that kind of outcome.
However, when you sift through the exit-poll numbers on the economy, what you find is really compelling:
Seventy-nine percent of South Carolina voters told exit pollers that they were very worried about the nation’s economy; Gingrich carried that group by 14 percentage points.
Among the 11 percent of voters who said their own economic situation was improving, Romney did well, finishing in a virtual tie with Gingrich. But Romney and his message fell flat among those who said their economic status was static (Gingrich up 14 points) or slipping (Gingrich by 19 points).
Among income groups, Romney was competitive only among those said they made $100,000 or more, losing that demographic by only five percentage points. He lost by 15 points among everybody else.
Again, these are conservative voters in a conservative state, in an election cycle in which the economy will be the defining issue. And yet they clearly sided with a candidate who conducted “a frontal assault on free enterprise,” to use Romney’s description.
For the moment, Romney’s solution is to do as he did in his concession speech: whine about the treachery of a fellow Republican daring to advance a liberal critique. Within the confines of a GOP primary, that approach may have some temporary success.
But again, in a general election that’s not going to work.
Two more points: One, as Gingrich clearly recognizes, Romney’s personal history, his bearing and his personality all make him the perfect foil for a populist message. He epitomizes the Wall Street tycoon often central to that narrative, and it’s a weakness for which there is no cure.
Two, the lessons of South Carolina may have real consequences for House and Senate races as well. If the overall GOP message truly is as weak as it appears after Saturday — if it can be turned into a handicap even in a Republican primary — then Democratic prospects downticket may be brighter than they have seemed.
– Jay Bookman
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1,059 comments Add your comment
JamVet
January 23rd, 2012
8:38 pm
Two kinds of people in this world
Winners… losers
I lost my power in this world
Cause I did not use it
So I go insane
Like I always do
And I call your name
She’s a lot like you
Two kinds of trouble in this world
Living… dying
I lost my power in this world
And the rumors are flying
So I go insane
Like I always do
And I call your name
She’s a lot like you
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1wvve_lindsey-buckingham-go-insane_music
Bruno
January 23rd, 2012
8:41 pm
Bruno: CO2 as causation of greenhouse effects is pretty well established.
Sorry, but it’s not. But, believe as you wish. From what I’ve seen, Adam, you haven’t educated yourself well enough to form your own opinion. Appeals to authority aren’t the same as actually understanding something.
You do understand where the butterfly effect came from don’t you?…it’s not dumbed down to “too simplistic” it’s that we don’t have the capability (yet) to make a model as sophisticated or complex as required…everything else is too simplistic to coin a phrase
EC–Just a guess, but I’d have to believe that your point is lost on both Adam and TP. In order to appreciate your statement, one would have to familiarize themselves with chaos theory as applied to mass quantum states. I doubt if either have ever applied Schrodinger’s equations to anything.
Recon 0311 2533
January 23rd, 2012
8:41 pm
0311/1811, makes you proud but I can’t relate. My first 4 years all I saw in garrison was starched utilities and spit shined boots. last 2 years, filthy dirty utilities and filthy dirty boots.
ODD OWL
January 23rd, 2012
8:42 pm
Non of the Republicans candidates have a chance against President Obama.. The GOP should just cancel the rest of the primaries and not run anyone against the President in the general. Barack the hawk is simply unbeatable…
Erwin's cat
January 23rd, 2012
8:42 pm
well TP then please do tell the the limitations of predicting weather vs the limitations of predicting GCC predictions, ….not sure I get it myself
Thulsa Doom
January 23rd, 2012
8:43 pm
Scout,
Nice link on the marine corps band. Just curious though. Is the p silent in corps like I’ve always thought it be? Or is it pronounced the Obama way as in corpse? I know the answer but I’m asking on behalf of others. Some of the liberals wanted to know and are quite adamant that Obama can speak English correctly when he calls a Navy corpsman a corpse man.
lynnie gal
January 23rd, 2012
8:44 pm
Conservative voters are lovin’ them some newt because he gives ‘em what they wanna hear–nasty, racist-tinged remarks, hate speech aimed at the poor and unemployed, and media attacks when asked legit questions by them. I guess next he’ll promise ‘em he’ll bomb Iran if he becomes prez and get us into another war so we can send more american kids to their deaths–he’s bound to get the republican nomination then!
Recon 0311 2533
January 23rd, 2012
8:44 pm
“Barack the hawk is simply unbeatable…” well he is hoping for change.
JamVet
January 23rd, 2012
8:44 pm
The amazing thing about LB was that he never used a plectrum. A picker extraordinaire…
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1rae0_fleetwood-mac-world-turning-1976_music
Soothsayer
January 23rd, 2012
8:46 pm
Always one of my favorite MJ songs. Wait for the hook at :50. Why couldn’t he have just left well enough alone? Who will ever know?
Recon 0311 2533
January 23rd, 2012
8:46 pm
Thulsa Doom,
Those are occasions where his teleprompter can’t help him out.
0311/1811
January 23rd, 2012
8:47 pm
Recon 0311 2533 :
I hear you. They were drafting (including into the Marines) so they also had to offer a two year enlistment . That’s what I did.
Bootcamp at San Diego, ITR, Advanced ITR, Scout-Sniper School, Nam, 4 months 2nd Division M.P.’s at LeJeune and out !
0311/1811
January 23rd, 2012
8:49 pm
Thulsa:
Trust me ……… it’s silent even when you hear the cry of “Corpsman Up” in combat.
Those guys were the bravest ever !
Kamchak
January 23rd, 2012
8:53 pm
“teleprompter”
Kamchak
January 23rd, 2012
8:53 pm
“mom jeans”
md
January 23rd, 2012
8:54 pm
Well, I missed the China blog so I’ll combine the two…..it won’t matter who wins the next election ( r or d) if the dumbed down masses keep buying all the cheap crap coming in from abroad…….buying yourselves right out of a job and can’t even see it.
Kamchak
January 23rd, 2012
8:54 pm
“ACORN”
Thulsa Doom
January 23rd, 2012
8:55 pm
he gives ‘em what they wanna hear–nasty, racist-tinged remarks, hate speech aimed at the poor and unemployed,blah blah blah, hate blah, black blah blah people blah racist blah blah hate blah filled blah blah
More intellectual discourse from the kook left.
md
January 23rd, 2012
8:56 pm
“I guess next he’ll promise ‘em he’ll bomb Iran if he becomes prez and get us into another war so we can send more american kids to their deaths”
The war drums are beating as we speak….the current fellow just might beat him to it……..
Thulsa Doom
January 23rd, 2012
8:57 pm
Trust me ……… it’s silent even when you hear the cry of “Corpsman Up” in combat.
I dunno. You, me, and everyone else has always known it to be silent. But ya know its possible that the dear leader is correct and that the rest of us have been wrong all along. Just sayin…
jm
January 23rd, 2012
8:59 pm
popcorn ready
bman
January 23rd, 2012
9:00 pm
The “good” in Midori is trying to make its way out.
TaxPayer
January 23rd, 2012
9:00 pm
cat,
rather than me be overtly pretentious and just blending in too well with some here, I’ll let you read some of the scientist’s own words. Just scroll down to section g. I’ll be glad to talk, to you, about any aspect that you care to delve into.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
January 23rd, 2012
9:00 pm
More intellectual discourse from the kook left
As opposed to the “I’m begging you to want me” stupidity from the right [kook would be redundant]?
Soothsayer
January 23rd, 2012
9:00 pm
It’s those first 5 piano notes. I could always identify with those 5 notes. I remember the first time I heard this song! I’ll never forget it! God save you, Aretha.
Bruno
January 23rd, 2012
9:01 pm
Sooth–Back at your 8:46. Good call.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnhg7uP9wp4&feature=related
JamVet
January 23rd, 2012
9:06 pm
lynnie, yeah just imagine how passionate the hard worker would become and what things would “happen in his life” with access to the launch codes!
Just gut wrenching and compellingly raw.
The ten minute live version is really crazy…
I been alone
All the years
So many ways to count the tears
I never change
I never will
I’m so afraid the way I feel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4deOtlzvL4
jm
January 23rd, 2012
9:08 pm
mitt coming out swinging
Thulsa Doom
January 23rd, 2012
9:11 pm
The obsession continues at 9:00. Freud was definitely onto something.
md
January 23rd, 2012
9:12 pm
Oooooh goody……climate articles/charts and graphs…..I want to play. This from our very own GT expert:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html
Must be a bitch not being able to read one’s own info…..huh Mr Muller……
md
January 23rd, 2012
9:16 pm
“However, he (Muller) admitted it was true that the BEST data suggested that world temperatures have not risen for about 13 years. But in his view, this might not be ‘statistically significant’, although, he added, it was equally possible that it was – a statement which left other scientists mystified.”
Where’s Adam and TP when we need an interpretation? Should fit right in TP with your latest quip on Newt being right about right about right…….
Eli Jones
January 23rd, 2012
9:19 pm
President Newt Gingrich. It has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it??
md
January 23rd, 2012
9:20 pm
I think he said 50/50…….some help from the Church of Climate Armageddon members would be helpful……I didn’t make it all the way through THAT bible either……….
Eli Jones
January 23rd, 2012
9:21 pm
Jay might as well face the fact that Newt will be our next president. Tissue Jay??
md
January 23rd, 2012
9:22 pm
“President Newt Gingrich. It has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it??”
Ringing in my ears…yes.
Newt is a scum bag……88% of his own party voted to reprimand the guy the last time he was in charge…..talking about a flawed candidate……..the middle will avoid him like the plague.
Thulsa Doom
January 23rd, 2012
9:27 pm
md,
You hittin tp with facts again? He don’t like that he don’t.
Tom G
January 23rd, 2012
9:28 pm
If 95% of black voters vote for the black candidate, why doesn’t 95% of white voters vote for the white candidate? Isn’t that fair?
midtownguy
January 23rd, 2012
9:28 pm
Newt is flawed, but Republicans will never nominate a Mormon. I think it is just that simple.
getalife
January 23rd, 2012
9:29 pm
“Barack the hawk is simply unbeatable…”
He will drone you.
And it is legal.
jm
January 23rd, 2012
9:29 pm
newt knows “the history of washington”
hilarious
jm
January 23rd, 2012
9:31 pm
“let me be very clear”….
newtranslator: i will no begin lying
TaxPayer
January 23rd, 2012
9:32 pm
Here md. Perhaps this will help clear up any confusion you have on the issue. Or not.
jm
January 23rd, 2012
9:34 pm
“He will drone you.”
yes, obama will drone on and on and on, with his pseudo intellectual lectures.
Erwin's cat
January 23rd, 2012
9:34 pm
I ask …what time is it?…and i get told how to make a watch….after a lot of hand waving of course
md
January 23rd, 2012
9:37 pm
Sorry TP……the Head of that project has stated in his own words that it is 50/50…..see above.
And I’m not a rocket scientist, but when one looks at the temperature chart in relation to the co2 chart, it isn’t hard to see that the direct correlation is not there…..it it was, the temp would also be going up.
Sorry big guy, but back to the drawing board for you religious fanatics……
TaxPayer
January 23rd, 2012
9:37 pm
I must say, md, that I kept getting distracted by other more interesting articles on your site such as this one. What. You weren’t distracted by the same articles!
Bruno
January 23rd, 2012
9:40 pm
What channel is the debate on?? Can’t find anything on the channel guide.
Is it tonight??
Thulsa Doom
January 23rd, 2012
9:40 pm
Cherrypicking starting points? Seems like that’s what the global warming folks have been doing all along. And they complain when someone picks data that shows temps are flat or falling using a starting point from a decade ago? The whole problem with this debate is that anyone can make the point that the earth is warming or cooling depending on where they want to pick their starting point.
TaxPayer
January 23rd, 2012
9:40 pm
Firstly, it’s worth noting that the BEST team addressed the myth that global warming stopped in recent years in their FAQ:
“decadal fluctuations are too large to allow us to make decisive conclusions about long term trends based on close examination of periods as short as 13 to 15 years.”
In short, Curry’s comments are contradicted by actual statistical analysis done by other members of the BEST team. As SkS has discussed at length with Dr. Pielke Sr., over short timeframes on the order of a decade, there is too much noise in the data to draw any definitive conclusions about changes in the long-term trend.
On his blog, tamino does the statistical analysis of the BEST data and finds that because the timeframe in question is so short, the uncertainty is too large to say for certain that the short-term trend in question is any different than the long-term trend. Right off the bat, it’s clear that Dr. Muller was correct to say there is no definitive evidence that global warming has slowed down.
Sorry md but you seem to be missing the results of the study.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
January 23rd, 2012
9:44 pm
Markets have to have regulation to work – Mitt.
Oops!
Keep Up the Good Fight!
January 23rd, 2012
9:44 pm
NBC Bruno
jm
January 23rd, 2012
9:45 pm
keep 9:44
conservatives don’t dispute that. there is such a thing as too much regulation though, as Mitt pointed out
St Simons - we're on Island time
January 23rd, 2012
9:46 pm
local AM radio here is sooo funny and not just between noon & 6
heard the other night “on the skip” as we say from jus north of savannah
“In our SC primary there was one black voter. Sully (i have no idea who
sully is) has a picture of him.” (another voice, serious as a judge) But that
may have been a guy that came in to fix the heat pump, we don’t know.”
oh, haha, hoho, heehee, those cons are just a riot.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
January 23rd, 2012
9:51 pm
Well jm, I think we have seen many posts to the contrary here (see references to EPA, for example) but you’ll be please to know that Obama agrees with you that smart regulation is needed. In some places that means more, in others less and in all current and updated regulations.
St Simons - we're on Island time
January 23rd, 2012
9:53 pm
60 Mittens commercials today since I got home
they’re throwin the kitchen sink at Flo-ridah
Bruno
January 23rd, 2012
9:54 pm
And I’m not a rocket scientist, but when one looks at the temperature chart in relation to the co2 chart, it isn’t hard to see that the direct correlation is not there…..it it was, the temp would also be going up.
md–In case you haven’t figured it out yet, TP’s head is so far up his own butt that the lump in his throat is actually his neck.
You’ll get more satisfaction banging your head against a wall. Just sayin’
md
January 23rd, 2012
9:54 pm
I think Ron Paul has his chickens and eggs mixed up……
Bruno
January 23rd, 2012
9:55 pm
NBC Bruno
Thanks, found it, Keep.
Haven’t seen anything exciting so far.
md
January 23rd, 2012
9:58 pm
“What. You weren’t distracted by the same articles! ”
Articles…no. Pictures…yes.
A Tax Cheat or A Wife Cheat (Is this the Best Republicans Have To Offer?)
January 23rd, 2012
9:58 pm
@Bruno
January 23rd, 2012
9:55 pm
NBC Bruno
Thanks, found it, Keep.
Haven’t seen anything exciting so far.
******************************************************************
Mitt is taking it to Newt.
So far it has shown the crazy views of these candidates.
They are war mongers.
They have no real ideas.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
January 23rd, 2012
9:59 pm
In case you haven’t figured it out yet, TP’s head is so far up his own butt that the lump in his throat is actually his neck
Mmmm… this from the same poster who asked. earlier…do you ever have anything to offer other than one-line insults?? Seems like you could do better
There’s mud in your eye!
Thulsa Doom
January 23rd, 2012
9:59 pm
“In case you haven’t figured it out yet, TP’s head is so far up his own butt that the lump in his throat is actually his neck.’
Well it looks like we have a factual statement in the great global warming debate.
Thulsa Doom
January 23rd, 2012
10:00 pm
“They are war mongers.”
So exactly how is Romney a war monger? Link please.
md
January 23rd, 2012
10:02 pm
I know Bruno…..but I get a kick out of debating any religious fanatic…..after all, all beliefs have a 50/50 chance of being correct…….or incorrect. I just find it comical that some will deny every religion (belief) on the planet but their own…….
A Tax Cheat or A Wife Cheat (Is this the Best Republicans Have To Offer?)
January 23rd, 2012
10:02 pm
Santorum is an IDIOT!
He does not have a CLUE.
He looks like Howdy Doody.
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:07 pm
foreigners can serve in the us military if they don’t even have a visa yet? (says newt)
need to check on that one….
Bruno
January 23rd, 2012
10:07 pm
Mitt is taking it to Newt.
Missed that, Tax Cheat. I agree with both Newt’s and Mitt’s answer about English being the standard language of this country. Otherwise we’ll one day have another Iraq on our hands–three diverse peoples who will never get along.
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:07 pm
“self deportation”
sure that’ll happen
Bruno
January 23rd, 2012
10:09 pm
do you ever have anything to offer other than one-line insults?? Seems like you could do better
Never said I don’t insult–but I have a lot else to offer in addition to the insults.
Thulsa Doom
January 23rd, 2012
10:09 pm
jm,
Self deportation is happening already. The economy is so bad under Obama they literally are self deporting.
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:09 pm
jesus
can’t we just have immigration reform permitting more immigrants from a more diverse set of countries than just mexico? and smarter immigrants
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:09 pm
doom
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:11 pm
newt must be getting money from the sugar guys in FL
that was a waffling response on sugar subsidies
TaxPayer
January 23rd, 2012
10:11 pm
Bruno and Thulsa,
Why do you two insist on behaving like little children even though our blog host has asked repeatedly and politely for you not to behave in such a manner. Grow up.
Bruno
January 23rd, 2012
10:11 pm
To be honest, Keep, I feel sorry for Midori. She seems consumed with bitterness. When I first came to the blog, she used to dog her ex-husband, RW in a way that made me think they had a recent breakup. Turns out it was something like 15 years ago. Sad.
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:12 pm
mitt better never touch foot on the golf course…..
“90 rounds”
A Tax Cheat or A Wife Cheat (Is this the Best Republicans Have To Offer?)
January 23rd, 2012
10:12 pm
Mitt Romney is a lying SOB!
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:13 pm
what. Ron Paul is moderating his views? no need to mess with the everglades restoration?
something is amiss here.
someone modified the matrix.
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:14 pm
tax cheat
all politicians lie
mitt lies less than the others
Bruno
January 23rd, 2012
10:15 pm
Why do you two insist on behaving like little children even though our blog host has asked repeatedly and politely for you not to behave in such a manner. Grow up.
Could it be in response to the fact that nothing but jackassery comes out of your mouth, TP?? Honestly, I wouldn’t mind you being an arrogant blowhard if you could back it up. But, you can’t.
If Jay thinks my behavior is way out of line with the other posters here, I’m sure he would have banned me by now. So, in the meantime, if you can’t take the heat, get the F out of the kitchen.
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:16 pm
THANK YOU MITT: END THE SUGAR SUBSIDIES (he said)
well done
sucks to be a Faneuil bro (if he would actually follow up on that)
Thulsa Doom
January 23rd, 2012
10:16 pm
jm,
The downside to Obama making it so bad that even the illegals are leaving is that now he can claim to have reduced illegal immigration. And rightly so. Doesn’t matter if he did it by making things so bad they want to leave.
Jamal Jenkums
January 23rd, 2012
10:16 pm
We don’t really care what you think. we aren’t gonna let you and the liberal media pick our candidate. Any one of them will mop the floor with Big Eared Oblunder.
Get yourself a crying towel for November.
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:17 pm
bruno
liberals whine when they lose
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:18 pm
rut ro
terry schaivo
TaxPayer
January 23rd, 2012
10:18 pm
Grow up Bruno.
md
January 23rd, 2012
10:18 pm
I think Ron is just wasting somebody’s money…….last polls showed single digits…..time to wrap it up. He is clueless on who is doing what when it comes to foreign policy.
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:19 pm
he was scheduled to come down for schaivo’s death? BS from rick santorum
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:20 pm
a federal hearing for every conflicted “right to die” case?
well that will be a great use of federal court time…..
another super stupid Newt idea.
bman
January 23rd, 2012
10:21 pm
I like Midori because she is mean. If she were nice to me, I would end up ignoring her.
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:22 pm
mitt: need a good space program
yeah mitt
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:23 pm
obama’s space policy isn’t crazy though. he did finally end the inefficient shuttle program
obama just lacks vision. (on the space program)
JamVet
January 23rd, 2012
10:24 pm
A tissue?
And a crying towel?
More like a barf bag.
And I’m sure that the closet bigot/mystery meat Jamal is so confident in his prognostication abilities that he has a boatload wagered against Barry.
Right meat? Easy money.
Too funny…
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:24 pm
“romantic futures”
passionate patriotism
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:25 pm
newt wants to hook up with calista on the space station
Thulsa Doom
January 23rd, 2012
10:25 pm
Hell end all the farm subsidies. Gradually wean them off by cutting the subsidies down to 0 over a 5-10 year time frame. Most of the farming is done by large, commercial farms anyway and not by family farms. Watched a funny Stossel report about agr subsidies and all the wealthy elite making money off it- even Arab sheiks getting U.S. farm subsidies. The plutocracy at work. Corruption too. And lets not forget heavy lobbying.
Bruno
January 23rd, 2012
10:25 pm
terry schaivo
A total black eye for the Republicans, IMO.
I like Midori because she is mean. If she were nice to me, I would end up ignoring her.
Ultimately, we’re all here for interaction, for attention. I just think it’s better to get the attention in positive ways AMAP. I don’t dislike Midori, just feel sorry for her.
Grow up Bruno.
Waaaaaaahhhhhh.
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:25 pm
newt needs 0 gravity to get it on with calista
the only question is if adding Newt’s mass to the space station would upset its orbit
jm
January 23rd, 2012
10:26 pm
doom – amen!
Thulsa Doom
January 23rd, 2012
10:27 pm
Just when I got a serious face on JamVet has to get me rolling again by calling someone “meat”. It never fails to crack me up.