In recent months, I’ve begun to feel just a wee bit more optimistic about the economy, and the weekend shopping figures seem to justify that sentiment. Hiring seems to be picking up a bit as well. The biggest remaining obstacle to continued recovery would seem to be the ongoing economic problems in the Eurozone. If that challenge could be managed, we might be alright heading into 2012.
Unfortunately, numbers released last week revealed that new manufacturing orders in Europe had fallen by 6.4 percent, a decline comparable to the collapse of 2008. And what does this mean for those of us on this side of the Atlantic? How much protection does thousands of miles of ocean provide?
Tim Duy at Fed Watch compares how U.S. output has historically tracked that of Europe and concludes that Europe’s decline could have a serious impact here, and none of it good:
Of course, since this is all Barney Frank’s fault and has nothing to do with an international debt crisis driven by an historic spree of irresponsible lending and borrowing, it’s all going to get better now that Frank has announced his retirement.
So we’ve got that going for us. Which is nice.
– Jay Bookman