Is the 2012 GOP going to pull a 1964?

While I still expect Mitt Romney to be the Republican nominee for president,  I have to admit that data such as this, from a recent Quinnipiac poll of registered Republican or Republican-leaning voters, give me pause:

gopwin

Three out of four believe it’s more important to nominate someone who shares their beliefs on the issues rather than someone capable of beating the hated Obama? At first, I thought that must be some anomaly, something gone awry with the polling. But I checked around and found a CBS poll that asked a similar question this month.

Again, “58 percent said they believe it’s more important to have a nominee who agrees with them on the issues than one who can beat Mr. Obama next year. Thirty-nine percent said the opposite.”

That’s not the 74-24 split reported in the Quinnipiac poll, but it’s still an overwhelming margin. It helps to explains why Karl Rove and others among the party’s Washington elite seem more and more frustrated by Romney’s inability to close the deal. It also explains why certain well-connected conservative columnists are becoming increasingly harsh in their attacks on Newt Gingrich (see here and here).

They fear, with good cause, that the GOP is at least open to another “Goldwater moment,” in which it selects a champion based on emotional resonance with the base rather than his chances of success come November. That’s the opening through which Gingrich hopes to wriggle. If you look at their records, he’s no more conservative than Romney. But he is better equipped, both emotionally and rhetorically, to give GOP voters the red meat that they crave.

– Jay Bookman

359 comments Add your comment

Geo

November 29th, 2011
10:53 pm

Oh and zombies are reading my mail.

Soothsayer

November 29th, 2011
10:53 pm

Geo! A new player! Come on in, we’re just getting started good!

Soothsayer

November 29th, 2011
10:55 pm

Jm: I’m waiting. Ol’ Dave R. was the only one who would really stick it out to the wee hours. How about you?

bman

November 29th, 2011
10:55 pm

wow .. .. i really know how to step in it. Sorry sooth

Jm

November 29th, 2011
10:59 pm

Geo

U too? They’re such a pain

I find the zombies much like liberal beliefs. They never die no matter how many times you prove them wrong.

Soothsayer

November 29th, 2011
11:02 pm

Jm & Geo: you, like most Americans, have to be the most gullible people on Earth to think that 2 110-story skyscrapers can disintegrate because of being struck by two what amounts to “flying eggshells.”

That you are ignorant is self-evident.

I’m ready, let’s go!

BADA BING

November 29th, 2011
11:05 pm

AJC headline ” Police shoot woman stabbing her child”. And I can’t think of a better reason to shoot her.

bman

November 29th, 2011
11:06 pm

Sooth .. .. I don’t want to get too deep into this, but I just wanted to ask : Who do you think was responsible for the WTC attacks? Specifically, who?

Soothsayer

November 29th, 2011
11:06 pm

Heck, even my 80+ year old Father told me he thought “those buildings were exploded.”

And, believe me, he is as far Right as they get. But at least he was honest.

Martin the Calvinist

November 29th, 2011
11:10 pm

Why would true conservatives want to put the white Obama in office in 2012? Romney would govern pretty close to who we have in office now.

Soothsayer

November 29th, 2011
11:14 pm

“Sooth .. .. I don’t want to get too deep into this, but I just wanted to ask : Who do you think was responsible for the WTC attacks? Specifically, who?”

bman: Larry Silverman who had recently bought the WTC towers and WTC 7 made over $3.5 billion in insurance.

The neo-cons Wolfowitz, Kristol, etc. needed a “new Pearl Harbor” to launch the wars of hegemony we have been mired in for over 10 years now.

Is that good enough?

It is not physically possible for a building to collapse as a result of being struck by an airplane. In fact, no building before or since has ever collapsed because of fire.

All of the evidence suggests that both WTC towers and Building 7 were demolished with controlled explosions.

If you are serious and sincere about learning more, I invite you to watch this 2 hour video about 9/11. I want to warn you in advance, you will never think about 9/11 the same way again.

Jm

November 29th, 2011
11:17 pm

Martin
Um no
Romney is light years different than Obama

bman

November 29th, 2011
11:19 pm

Sooth .. .. I just think .. .. Herman Cain can’t get a little booty without being busted. I have doubts that something this large which would have had to involve many people could be kept a secret. However, I will watch the video. Probably not 2 hours tonight, but I will take in 30 minutes or so..

Soothsayer

November 29th, 2011
11:21 pm

Thanks, bman. I’m outta here. You may find you watch the entire thing even though you didn’t mean to. Goodnight.

Political Mongrel

November 29th, 2011
11:30 pm

It used to be that the GOP had a fair choice of candidates, but the Democrats had bupkis. Now the GOP has a bunch of loonies and losers, and the Democrats still have zip. There’s no viable third party candidates no matter what the third parties try to tell you. So the next election is going to be between a Democratic mediocrity and a GOP near-sociopath and terminal panderer. Gee, ain’t politics great?

bman

November 29th, 2011
11:33 pm

“Vita Lee, 103, has shared her northwest Atlanta home with her 83-year-old daughter for 53 years. The legal fight over eviction started in 2009 and stems from a second mortgage taken out years ago by another family member”

http://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta/deputies-movers-dont-evict-1245741.html

If it was “her” home, how was a family member able to take out a 2nd mortgage ? I’m thinking someone is doing some crappy reporting. If not, please give me the scoop how I take out a 2nd mortgage on my parents home ….just for kicks

1964

November 30th, 2011
12:20 am

JFK’s men always feared Nelson Rockefeller as he was a moderate Republican. Once JFK was assassinated, he was lionized, when he had been previously demonized by many. Unlikely anyone the Republicans ran in ‘64 would have won. Goldwater at least told the straight, hard truth. LBJ was a manic depressive liar who tried to bully anyone who opposed him. I’ll take the truth, thank you. But, unfortunately, liars often win in politics. Says a lot about them as a class (and citizens as the idiot masses who elect them)

Matt

November 30th, 2011
12:32 am

Every once in a while, Jay, I read the comments to your columns. I fervently hope that you’re writing a book about them. I’ll buy it, if you’ll autograph it!

lynnie gal

November 30th, 2011
1:27 am

The GOP brand is damaged—look at their candidates. What a freak show. They’ve got nothing. People who think they’re viable are brain damaged.

Pete

November 30th, 2011
1:58 am

Regarding corporations and other “job creators:” jobs are created only if there is increasing demand for a product or service. If you give an employer a tax break, he will invest the extra money wherever he can get the best return – including in other countries! Any employer who says he is not hiring because regulations are too severe or healthcare is too expensive is simply making an excuse for his lackluster product or service. No one wants it, so he need not staff up to provide more of it. Most folks are looking for a simple solution to a complex problem of global economics. Unfortunately, this dream has proven elusive, and to place all of the blame on president Obama, well, that is the ultimate in simplistic thinking.

Joel Edge

November 30th, 2011
5:36 am

” based on emotional resonance”
It isn’t emotional. We’re tiring of voting for one person and getting another. You liberals should know that feeling , Jay.

Mike C.

November 30th, 2011
5:42 am

Or it could be a Reagan moment.

Remember, when Republicans actually nominate a real Republican, they win and when they nominate a RHINO, they loose.

Think 1980, 1984 (Reagan), 1988 (Bush number 1 lost because he raised taxes in ‘92), 2000, 2004 (Bush 2)

Republicans lost when they nominate RHINO”s . Think 1976 (Ford), 1992 (Bush) 1996 (Dole) 1988 (McCain)

Nominate a real conservative, and the real conservatives will come out and vote….

Newt, like any politician, is subject to the forces that be in politics. But he is a real conservative, has matured and admitted mistakes made (i.e. speaking with Pelosi about Cap and Trade on TV). Romney changes sides more times than flipping a pancake.

IF Newt needs nudging to the center by the base of conservatives, that will be a lot easier to do than trying to push Romeny to the center since he is a die hard RHINO.

If Romeny gets the nomination (as Democrats and the media are wanting) then conservatives will stay home and Obama will win..

USinUK

November 30th, 2011
6:09 am

RHINO

um.

yeah.

and what does the H stand for, exactly??? Republican Holier-than-thou In Name Only???

“If Romeny gets the nomination (as Democrats and the media are wanting) then conservatives will stay home and Obama will win..”

and what do you think will happen if Newt gets the nomination???

bobfromacworth

November 30th, 2011
6:39 am

Poor delusional Jay… He must be forgetting that the electorate now has more ways to find out their information than back in the Goldwater days. We won’t see the A-Bomb commercials (that poor little girl with the flower) constantly like back in that day, when only 3 networks existed and the fix was in for LBJ. Review your history better Jay.

Granny Godzilla

November 30th, 2011
6:57 am

bobfromacworth

nope, we all know the electorate has more readily available info.

and that sir, is why the GOP will fail.

the info, the data, the reality is not on the side of the GOP.

OH AND

Good Morning Campers!

USinUK

November 30th, 2011
6:58 am

“We won’t see the A-Bomb commercials (that poor little girl with the flower) constantly like back in that day,”

constantly???

the ad was aired ONCE.

and you seem to forget that, while there may have only been 3 networks, there were NUMEROUS independently-owned newspapers and local stations during the days of LBJ and Goldwater – they weren’t rolled up into Murdoch/Clear Channel/etc corporate media conglomerates like we have now

There definitely IS someone who needs to learn their history a little better in this situation … it’s just not who you think it is.

USinUK

November 30th, 2011
6:59 am

Hi GG (and greetings from across the pond to the Zillettes and the Zillini!!)

jezel

November 30th, 2011
7:02 am

JamVet….what you said could not be more true. No one is perfect. But pretending to be something that you are not…will not fly.

Granny Godzilla

November 30th, 2011
7:04 am

USinUK

Thanks

The walking Baby G said “juice” and the family danced with delight.

USinUK

November 30th, 2011
7:06 am

GG – yay! Zillini is mobile and talking – exciting (and funny) times for everyone :-)

bobfromacworth

November 30th, 2011
7:17 am

GG and usinuk, drinking the dems Kool-Aid again, so sad.

USinUK

November 30th, 2011
7:18 am

Herman Cain … the gift that keeps giving …

http://www.salon.com/2011/11/29/az_state_senator_herman_cain_has_not_sexually_harassed_me_even_though_i_am_attractive/singleton/

“Says she has known him for 12 years and he’s “never been anything but a gentlemen – and I am not an unattractive woman.””

yay!!!

Oversimplify

November 30th, 2011
7:18 am

Conservatives are so intoxicated on the purity of their beliefs that they have deluded themselves into thinking that their’s is the only way and America deserves their rule by fiat.

Hence, a group of crappy candidates talking the talk is sufficient for their purposes. The danger of belonging to the FOX community is the exclusion of the other side of the coin.

USinUK

November 30th, 2011
7:18 am

“drinking the dems Kool-Aid again”

bob – you’re going to have to do a little better than that to refute facts.

Granny Godzilla

November 30th, 2011
7:25 am

bobfromacworth

dems kool-aid? really? is that the best you can do in the way of a snappy retort?

if that is your best, and you are representative of the GOP…
2012 will be a cakewalk for the Democrats.

(besides it’s early morning and there is no caffiene in kool-aid)

USinUK

November 30th, 2011
7:27 am

“(besides it’s early morning and there is no caffiene in kool-aid)”

:lol:

just one of the many areas where Jim Jones went wrong … he should have offered lattes …

bobfromacworth

November 30th, 2011
7:53 am

wow, musta hit a nerve…

Joe Hussein Mama

November 30th, 2011
8:03 am

F. Sinkiewicz — “our exceptionalism is doomed”

Good. Screw exceptionalism in all its forms.

Screw American exceptionalism.

Screw Christian exceptionalism.

Screw white exceptionalism.

Screw upper-class exceptionalism.

Screw corporate exceptionalism.

Screw all forms of exceptionalism anywhere, as well as all those who believe in any varieties of it whatsoever.

F. Sinkwich

November 30th, 2011
8:28 am

Enter your comments here

F. Sinkwich

November 30th, 2011
8:30 am

Joe must be from Kenya.

Jim

November 30th, 2011
8:32 am

“…especially if you own a business!”
I was discussing politics, in general, recently and this same statement was thrown out. Since it wasn’t discussed, it was, I suppose, agreed to be “fact”. I thought about it and asked the person who said it, later, what he meant. I think any business owner would have a problem with government in general not specifically with anything President Obama has, or hasn’t done. We seem to live in an age where its common to just “throw out” a statement without any backing. So, in the future, Jack, please say something like, “If you’re smart, you wouldn’t vote for Obama because he has …., or has not …..” So that those of us who disagree will have something to disagree with other than your statement is stupid!

kawasaki kid

November 30th, 2011
8:47 am

This blog is obviously just another playground for all you would-be cyber-bullies to post childish back-and-forth banter. Boring!!! Jay is a thoughtful writer whose opinions are based on facts, not dogma, and thus was hoping for a more thoughtful, intelligent group. The Kawasaki Kid is out of here for good. Bye, folks. Got better things to waste my time on.
Keep up the good work, Jay! I won’t give up on you until I catch you trying to slide on over on me. So far, so good.

Joe Hussein Mama

November 30th, 2011
8:54 am

F.Sinkiewicz — “Joe must be from Kenya.”

I didn’t think you had anything worthwhile to contribute. :roll:

ken

November 30th, 2011
8:54 am

BHO approval below Carters. Ha HA !! Carter administration brought us record high interest rates, BHO gives us record low house values. ,

Richard

November 30th, 2011
9:17 am

If this poll had shown that Republicans preferred a candidate that could beat Obama, rather than just sharing their views, you libs would be crying foul that Republicans are racist and that they are so stupid they care more about winning that about policy. Personally, I’m glad that they care more about issues than getting rid of Obama.

Robert

November 30th, 2011
9:38 am

“the GOP is at least open to another “Goldwater moment,” in which it selects a champion based on emotional resonance with the base rather than his chances of success come November. ”

If history is repeated and the GOP has another “Goldwater moment” they will select a known segregationist just like Barry Goldwater, Jesse Helms, Strom Thurman, etc., who will rally the South and spew the same rhetoric (hatred, fear and rage/mob mentality) from the 1950-60’s used by the homegrown terrorist group(s) known as the “tea party” (klansmen, skinheads, birthers, militia’s, etc.).

GT/MIT

November 30th, 2011
9:58 am

Jay
November 29th, 2011
5:08 pm

Truthbe:

“Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbor.”

bookman, does this piece of sage advice apply to the
ajc’s opinion writers as well ?

What

November 30th, 2011
10:11 am

Looks like several of the millions of Cain’s “Intelligent Thinkers” are chiming in this morning.

Obama is over

November 30th, 2011
10:25 am

Obama is in a dead heat with a generic GOP candidate. Even though he has a historically low status in various opinion polls, he may still squeze out a win. However, in order to do so, he is going to have to wage the nastiest, most divisive, campaign in American history. Patrick Caddell and Douglas Schoen,two Democratic pollsters who understand numbers better than anyone on this blog, pointed out in an op-ed piece in the WSJ that the type of campaign necessary for the president’s political survival would make it virtually impossible for him to effectively govern during a campaign and throughout a second term.Bush used the scorched earth strategy in 2004 and look where it got him. Obama cannot run on his track record in office. His approval ratings reflect voters who know that they are no better off than they were 4 years ago. Thus, he has to constantly blame Bush, Congress, the Tea Party, the Grinch, and anyone else he can think of to avoid accepting responsibility. Democrats tend to focus on the far right elements of the GOP because they are easy targets. Romney can beat Obama because he has a better grasp of the macro systematic threats to the global economy. Obama tends to concentrate on generic government spending programs that target specific voter constituencies while ignoring the vast majority of America. He wants us to let him spend taxpayer money today and worry about how to pay for it by sitting down and maybe thinking about talking about setting up a committee- as long as it is after 2012. Short term partisan thinking is not the answer to America’s problems. Lack of ability to put together bipartisan coalitions on Capital Hill is viewed as weakness in the Presidency, not Congress. If Obama can’t get break the gridlock in Washington because of his hard core partisan platform, then we need to elect someone who can.

GT/MIT

November 30th, 2011
10:44 am

What
November 30th, 2011
10:11 am

“Looks like several of the millions of Cain’s “Intelligent Thinkers” are chiming in this morning”

Several million ?,I’d like you to help count my money. As a point
of information, some of you thinkers “chiming in”, really don’t seem
all that intelligent.

GT/MIT

November 30th, 2011
11:29 am

Robert
November 30th, 2011
9:38 am

“If history is repeated and the GOP has another “Goldwater moment” they will select a known segregationist just like Barry Goldwater, Jesse Helms, Strom Thurman, etc., who will rally the South and spew the same rhetoric (hatred, fear and rage/mob mentality) from the 1950-60’s used by the homegrown terrorist group(s) known as the “tea party” (klansmen, skinheads, birthers, militia’s, etc.).”

My pea headed friend, if I may be so bold as to suggest that before you try
to cite historical events, you might attempt to assimilate one or two actual
fact about those events.

Adam

November 30th, 2011
11:36 am

I’m sorry I missed “Chuck”’s pedantic diatribe earlier.

Yeah, going into an interview for your first job and requesting a salary like that and then insisting your requirements are simply rote memorization of words is JUST WHAT ALL OF US DO. Which is why I have a decent job and salary, because I went in with an attitude JUST LIKE THAT.

But “Chuck” knows, because it’s obvious, that no one will hire you if you act that way. I am curious what he thinks qualifications are for most jobs. Apparently he thinks everyone should expect to work for far less than $60,000, not ever take out student loans at all, and that a college education is useless (since apparently it only teaches you about sonnets).

I’m going to revert to my Barney Frank stance and ask “on what planet do you spend most of your time?”

GT/MIT

November 30th, 2011
12:50 pm

Adam
November 30th, 2011
11:36 am

“I’m going to revert to my Barney Frank stance and ask “on what planet do you spend most of your time?”

More importantly, on what planet were you when you met barney?

That Black guy

November 30th, 2011
1:23 pm

TaxPayer
November 29th, 2011
4:55 pm
I see that Congress’s approval rating has jumped. It’s up to 12.3 percent. Ouch. Perhaps Boehner should think about actually doing something. – Because we all know that CONGRESS is COMPLETELY repub and only the House of reps.

or more bigger tax cuts for the Koch crooks. – “Koch” -They put that shyt on EVERYTHING right stands?

That Black guy

November 30th, 2011
1:35 pm

Doggone/GA
November 29th, 2011
5:18 pm

Doggone, do you believe Mcconnell speaks for EVERY repub in the country?

Adam

November 30th, 2011
2:15 pm

That Black guy : What political goal for a Republican would you elevate over “Making him a one term President”?

That Black guy

November 30th, 2011
3:42 pm

I don’t know, you would have to ask a repub. But to say 1 mcconnell represents the views of ALL repubs is kind of…well…silly.

Does Maxine Waters represent the views of ALL dems?

That Black guy

November 30th, 2011
3:46 pm

Adam

November 30th, 2011
2:15 pm
That Black guy : What political goal for a Republican would you elevate over “Making him a one term President”?

Besides, I thought the goal of repubs was to steal from the poor to give to the rich.

No, I thought it was to install a theocracy.

No, I thought it was to…

Gee, I guess it’s kinda hard to fit ALL of a group into one box. :lol:

Adam

November 30th, 2011
4:09 pm

That Black guy: From what I can tell, those other “goals” you brought up are nothing more than issues they themselves bring up as a way to bolster their overall goal of beating Obama. From what I can tell, MOST Republicans in office share this as their top goal. But we really only have their word, if they even speak on the subject, that is not the case.