The only person who can stop Rick Perry is Rick Perry
John Ellis, who among many other things is a Republican political analyst, a blogger and a cousin to former President George W. Bush, nails the state of the GOP presidential race in a Business Insider column:
The Republican “establishment,” such as it is, is quickly coming to the realization that the 2012 GOP presidential nomination is Texas Governor Rick Perry’s to lose.
That establishment would prefer someone more electable, someone more like, say, Mitt Romney. But as Ellis points out, Romney is the guy that most Republican voters will choose only if they have no other viable choice:
“Romney’s problem is four-fold: he’s politically “fungible” (to put it politely), he’s from the wrong region of the country (New England), he’s of the wrong religion (Mormonism) and he’s too closely identified with Wall Street (Bain Capital). The Republican base would prefer to nominate a strong conservative, evangelical Christian from the Sunbelt who, at the least, shares their disdain for Wall Street’s reckless stewardship of the nation’s financial system.”
Know anybody like that?
Ellis predicts that after Labor Day, the GOP establishment will launch “a sustained negative campaign to destroy Perry with the party’s base.” We’ve already seen hints of that from Karl Rove, among others. Absent some major revelation, however, that effort isn’t likely to work. Perry’s persona and background align so closely with the desires of the GOP base that it will be very difficult to drive a wedge between them. If Perry can prove that he can perform on the national stage, the nomination is all but his and there’s nothing Romney can do about it.
And as Ellis points out, Perry will get that opportunity very quickly.
“Once Labor Day has passed, there will be five debates, in quick succession, on the GOP presidential candidates’ calendars. These will be important tests for Perry. If at the end of two or three, it’s clear that he’s every bit the equal of Mitt Romney on matters of policy and politics, then the Perry juggernaut becomes all but unstoppable. Romney’s “I’m the only electable one” argument will vanish and the party’s base will nominate one of their own. If Perry stumbles badly in the debates, Romney’s campaign gets a second wind.”
I agree wholeheartedly. The only person who can snatch the nomination out of Rick Perry’s hands is Rick Perry himself.
– Jay Bookman
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1,022 comments Add your comment
Brosephus
August 30th, 2011
11:26 am
I’m willing to bet he’s gonna try to do one hell of a job at it too!!!
Normal
August 30th, 2011
11:29 am
I think it will be fun to watch him hopping on one foot, with the other foot in his mouth and his head up his arse, while raising his hands in praise of his financial donors…
Jm
August 30th, 2011
11:31 am
Ah. Give Romney time. He wants it and he’ll fight for it if he has to.
Romney will win NH. Perry probably gets SC. Romney will probably win FL and then the ball starts rolling downhill for him
Brosephus
August 30th, 2011
11:32 am
Normal
The mental imagery!!!!
Is that the new Texas 2-step?
Jm
August 30th, 2011
11:32 am
There was a disastrous hurricane that was going to tear NYC to shreds too
Mehhhh. Hyperbole
Kamchak
August 30th, 2011
11:34 am
If Perry stumbles badly in the debates, Romney’s campaign gets a second wind.
Romney’s campaign would be wrong.
Soothsayer
August 30th, 2011
11:34 am
Right-wing talking point #1: Spending is out of control under Obama.
ty webb
August 30th, 2011
11:35 am
Want to defeat Perry? Give him a microphone. Romney should engage him publicly every opportunity he gets
stands for decibels
August 30th, 2011
11:35 am
uh… huh-huh…
Jay said “snatch.”
jm
August 30th, 2011
11:36 am
Left-wing talking point #1: Spending is a-ok under Obama.
Granny Godzilla
August 30th, 2011
11:36 am
Rick Perry is HOT!
Of course that’s not the reason he’s going to flame out.
A Perry Primer
Soothsayer
August 30th, 2011
11:36 am
Right-wing talking point #2: The deficit has exploded under Obama.
Paul
August 30th, 2011
11:36 am
Nice continuity, Jay. First a thread about trains, now a thread about a train wreck.
USinUK
August 30th, 2011
11:37 am
SoCoBro – 11:26 –
ByteMe
August 30th, 2011
11:37 am
The question is: if Perry fails does it go next to Bachmann? She’s been making stupid statements for a while and it hasn’t affected her support levels. Only Perry’s entry into the race has affected her levels.
USinUK
August 30th, 2011
11:37 am
Paul – 11:36 – you just won the internets for that one.
ty webb
August 30th, 2011
11:37 am
nut ball talking point: 9-11 was an inside job.
I'm Rick James Wa-Itch!
August 30th, 2011
11:37 am
Blueprint for Deal?
Texas Governor Perry Becomes A Millionaire While Serving in Office”
Since his first race for office more than a quarter-century ago, Gov. Rick Perry has emphasized his roots as a rural farmer.
Yet Perry’s bank account no longer reflects those humble beginnings as his bottom line has soared in recent years, records show, thanks largely to a handful of real estate deals that critics allege were achieved through the presidential candidates’ political connections.
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/29/2379942/texas-gov-perry-became-a-millionaire.html#ixzz1WWj7BBju
jm
August 30th, 2011
11:37 am
Left-wing talking point #2: The deficit is a-ok under Obama.
Soothsayer
August 30th, 2011
11:38 am
Right-wing talking point #3: The “Stimulus” was a waste of money and did not help the economy or create jobs.
jm
August 30th, 2011
11:39 am
“The only person who can stop Rick Perry is Rick Perry”
Entertaining this notion for a moment. I do hope he stops himself.
stands for decibels
August 30th, 2011
11:39 am
But seriously folks, my first reaction to Jay’s new topic was last week’s Tom Tomorrow.
(Maybe that’s not fair, but a first reaction is what it is.)
USinUK
August 30th, 2011
11:39 am
“Only Perry’s entry into the race has affected her levels.”
meh – Romney won the 2007 Iowa straw poll, too … and we see how well that turned out
Left wing management
August 30th, 2011
11:39 am
You just cannot imagine the collective groan that is being let out around the country – not to mention around the world – as we see yet another Texas politician appear on the national scene, this George W. Bush without the subtlety and the brains – and dare I say it – the nuance!
You just cannot imagine the groan that is being let out now around the country.
jm
August 30th, 2011
11:40 am
“the nuance! ”
everyone’s sick of Obama’s 45-minute, nuance laced, diatribes
Joe Mama
August 30th, 2011
11:41 am
Paul — “Nice continuity, Jay. First a thread about trains, now a thread about a train wreck.”
Post of the WEEK.
Bob Burnitt
August 30th, 2011
11:41 am
Why do people give Perry so much credit??? This 5th generation Texasn sees him for what he is, a dullard and a go along to get along politician. This state is a MESS, we are dead last in practically EVERYTHING. The Insuracnce companies RUN the Texas Insurance Board, I have not had health insurance since 1987, I was “Blackballed” becasue an insurance company did not want to pay a $1,250 claim. Perry believes his OWN BS, he is delusional. Yet people like him, I don’t get it. He took ONE course in economics in his life and he made a D in it. If he was out pounding the streets for a regular job nobody would hire him. But those Holy Rollers will vote for anybody that promises them a THEOCRACY. They think they are going to get that with him. Bob Burnitt Ellis County Texas.
Brosephus
August 30th, 2011
11:42 am
Paul @ 11:36
And who says that Liberals are incapable of thought?
ByteMe
August 30th, 2011
11:42 am
everyone’s sick of Obama’s 45-minute, nuance laced, diatribes
jm prefers dog whistles.
Kamchak
August 30th, 2011
11:43 am
everyone’s sick of Obama’s 45-minute, nuance laced, diatribes
Everyone?
I didn’t grant you the authority to speak for me, sport.
Left wing management
August 30th, 2011
11:43 am
I said it on these pages weeks ago — do not misunderestimate this man.
And yet we see it over and over again, with almost every word that’s being spoken about the man.
MIS-UNDER-ESTIMATION in progress.
Peadawg
August 30th, 2011
11:43 am
Yawn. Another blog about someone who has no chance of getting in the white house.
Meanwhile, Bush-Lite is going to give a nice wittle speech about job creation next week. As long as he has plans for spending cuts to fund it, go for it!
Granny Godzilla
August 30th, 2011
11:44 am
Read my lips, No new Texans.
Joe Mama
August 30th, 2011
11:44 am
Bob Burnitt — “Why do people give Perry so much credit??? This 5th generation Texasn sees him for what he is, a dullard and a go along to get along politician.”
Gosh, Bob, I’d figure you’d have a better handle on why people vote for Perry, you being a Texan and all.
Maybe you could tell us some more, please?
Left wing management
August 30th, 2011
11:44 am
Brosephus: “And who says that Liberals are incapable of thought?”
I’m the one who uses the phrase “incapable of thought” on this blog. Not you.
And it’s directed at its proper target: the party of anti-though, of the mobilization of stupid. Which is the Republican party.
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
August 30th, 2011
11:45 am
Yep, Perry-Bachmann 2012.
You’ll get it in the rear while they’re praying you straight.
Soothsayer
August 30th, 2011
11:45 am
Right-wing strategy lesson #1: when confronted with irrefutable evidence that everything you are saying is a lie, attack the person who brought that evidence to light.
Same for Focked News!
RB from Gwinnett
August 30th, 2011
11:46 am
“That establishment would prefer someone more electable, someone more like, say, Mitt Romney”
Jay, the “establishment” was tossed out by conservatives in 2008 and shoved to the back seat by the Tea Party in 2010. They aren’t in charge and longer. Thank God!
How about you worry about propping up your empty suit and let us worry about our candidate? We don’t need you telling us the “conservative” from one of the most liberal states in the union is our best candidate.
Jack
August 30th, 2011
11:46 am
Perry may be hurt if his uncle gets a DWI.
Jay
August 30th, 2011
11:46 am
Can a diatribe be “nuance-laced”?
Peadawg
August 30th, 2011
11:48 am
“Read my lips, No new Texans.”
Amen. No more Chicagoans (whatever the word is) either!
kayaker 71
August 30th, 2011
11:49 am
I really don’t care if this guy feels that Evangelicals rule the world, feels that he saw Elvis or believes that the earth is flat. If he can get this economy back on track, get the jobs numbers up and fix this crazy tax system we have, he has my vote. I don’t give a tinker’s damn how much money he made in office…. all politicians, regardless of party, seem to be a little better healed when they leave than when they came. If he can get this insane spending under control, introduce a balanced budget amendment and work hard for it’s passage, he will be the most memorable president that this country has known for the last 100yrs. Bozo has failed miserably. Fess up, libs. He has been a colossal bust. He is a worldwide joke, like the Thin Man said last week, “a perfect combination of Affirmative Action and the Peter Principle.”
Brosephus
August 30th, 2011
11:49 am
LWM
jm
August 30th, 2011
11:49 am
Jay 11:46 – sure
Kamchak – sorry. that 60% of America is sick of it (you know, that portion that disapprove of his overall performance thus far)
Granny Godzilla
August 30th, 2011
11:50 am
Jack
Hurt? Like President George W Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney were hurt by their DUI’s?
Jefferson
August 30th, 2011
11:50 am
The fickleness of the GOP supporters never ceases to amaze.
I'm Rick James Wa-Itch!
August 30th, 2011
11:51 am
Bob: Perry believes his OWN BS, he is delusional. ……… He took ONE course in economics in his life and he made a D in it.
Well there ya go!! In Con world, as long as he passed, he’s capable!! Besides, Cons are sick of “elitist-harvard-edumacated-sushi-eating-libs” telling them how to add.
Bush proved it in 2007-2009 — You don’t need no stinkin edumacation to make up numbers and crash an economy, all you need is swag, a smile, tough talk, and a great publicist!
USinUK
August 30th, 2011
11:51 am
Jay – 11:46 – cut him some slack – he just moved up to the TWO-syllable words in his word of the day calendar, so he’s VERY proud
Brosephus
August 30th, 2011
11:51 am
Can a diatribe be “nuance-laced”?
Yep, although I think many here are nuisance-laced.
ty webb
August 30th, 2011
11:52 am
nut ball talking point #2: if all else fails…”Fox news”.