Consumer spending up, but recession still a threat
From Reuters:
WASHINGTON – U.S. consumer spending rose
at its fastest pace in five months in July, backing views the
economy was not falling back into recession, although pending
sales of previously owned homes fell.The Commerce Department said on Monday consumer spending
increased 0.8 percent on strong demand for motor vehicles,
after slipping 0.1 percent in June.Economists had expected spending, which accounts for about
70 percent of U.S. economic activity, to rise 0.5 percent.When adjusted for inflation, spending rose 0.5 percent last
month, the largest gain in 1-1/2 years and the first increase
since April.
While that’s good news, a double-dip recession is still a very real danger. The sovereign-debt crisis in Europe continue to play out, and seems destined to result in at least one and possibly more defaults. The recent brinksmanship in Washington has raised doubts both here and abroad about the sophistication and sense of responsibility among much of our elected leadership. And while corporate profits and corporate cash holdings remain at record highs, that’s dead money taken out of circulation.
As a story in today’s Wall Street Journal puts it:
Economists at JPMorgan, in their weekly reprise of economic developments, blamed the recent global stock selloff on “a sense of policy paralysis in the U.S. and Europe, which has driven home the point that there is no cavalry to ride to the rescue.”
“Fiscal policy has turned restrictive and an additional sharp tightening lies just ahead in the U.S., while monetary authorities have exhausted much of their ammunition,” they said.
Officials on both sides of the Atlantic who orchestrated the response to the global financial crisis insist the world economy would have been worse had they not acted as they did. But it’s clear that the remedies didn’t deliver the recovery for which they hoped.
Some economists, among them Harvard UniversiItty’s Kenneth Rogoff, say today’s painfully slow economic growth is the inevitable result of the massive head winds that follow a recession caused by a banking and financial crisis. Government policies, given already heavy burdens of debt on governments in the U.S., Europe and Japan, can’t overcome the relentless efforts of households and banks to reduce their debt loads.”
It would be fascinating to read how future historians and economists analyze this era and the decisions made by government and business leaders.
– Jay Bookman
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904 comments Add your comment
md
August 29th, 2011
5:26 pm
“Government and Business are symbiotic, they can not exist without the other,”
We do need both, it is how big is big enough is the question. There is a point where gov’t can be too big to do what it is designed to do…….it can not deliver the services if it also costs the private sector too much in terms of profit. And this bs about corps sitting on trillions in profit is just that….bs.
Some corps may be sitting on huge profits……..but the majority of corps are small businesses…and they are not sitting on all that cash…….many of them are just struggling to stay open……….
@@
August 29th, 2011
5:27 pm
Paul:
I didn’t know Ms. Rehm had been ill. He’s forgiven.
As far as cutting defense spending, he needs to take it up with Panetta and Hillary. They’re not pleased with the trigger put in place by the Democrats.
McGovern was way before my time. After doing a bit of research, I can find value in the knowledge that Democrats didn’t like him. When he wasn’t rubbing ‘em the wrong way, he wasn’t rubbin’ ‘em at all.
He told some guy to “Kiss his a$$.” I can DEFINITELY appreciate THAT!!!
Called for the impeachment of Bush and Cheney!!??!! Not kewl.
Fred
August 29th, 2011
5:28 pm
Dusty @ 5:25: S. much for my theory that you are a good good lol.
Bosch: Lay off Dusty. She’s in a good mood tonight and making me laugh for a change. Be nice to her.
Paul
August 29th, 2011
5:29 pm
Afternoon, josef
“So, what’s the argument about today? Catch me up so’s I don’t have to go scrolling back…j”
Not so much an argument as watching Bosch engage in a new style of self-flagellation –
’s what he gets for going agnostic pagan on us.
Brosephus
August 29th, 2011
5:30 pm
Some corps may be sitting on huge profits……..but the majority of corps are small businesses…and they are not sitting on all that cash…….many of them are just struggling to stay open……….
And that’s the problem with our economy right now. The few big guys are hoarding so much, they have our economy stopped up worse than somebody who’s eaten 100lbs of government cheese at one sitting. If they’d just circulate a portion of that money to the little guys, then we could probably see a bit of movement everywhere. Our economy needs an enema!!!!!
Normal
August 29th, 2011
5:30 pm
The Military does not buy 600.00 hammers…they are called Manually Operated Pounding Devices, MOP-Ds. That’s why they are worth 600.00.
josef
August 29th, 2011
5:30 pm
Joe the Plutocrat
Intelligent Design versus Evolution…which one won?
josef
August 29th, 2011
5:32 pm
PAUL
Agnostic pagan? Is that intelligent design or evolution?
Dusty
August 29th, 2011
5:33 pm
Sorry, Kamchak, I thought you had a sense of humor. Your groundhogs were funny at the time. I was just enjoying them.
Give my regards to your little goundlings!! And to Bosch who cannot read his own posts. Too much gravity I suppose.
Bosch
August 29th, 2011
5:34 pm
md
Now that I agree with and I’d even concede that in the past Doom’s assumption may have even been true, but not now- now, the driving force of “too big to fail” is alive and well in public and private.
Joe the Plutocrat
August 29th, 2011
5:34 pm
Thulsa, did you just suggest government is “a necessary evil that we must have for courts, police, military, fire protection.” so, it is both “necessay” AND ‘evil”. interesting. and if we must have “courts, police, military, and fire protection” why not “protection” from white collar crime (SEC, FBI, FTC… is there still an FTC?), unsafe foods (FCC), etc.? what’s your take on the TSA vs, the FAA. are we to accept that the government should “police” air travelers, but not the aircraft we travel on? ditto the workplace; we have SWAT teams and police forces, even armed guards at banks to protect us in the workplace, but OSHA does not have the right to “protect” workers? that said, I applaud you for admiting that government IS necessary. the problem is not with our government so much as it is the corruption that infects it (oligarchs).
Normal
August 29th, 2011
5:34 pm
“Agnostic pagan? Is that intelligent design or evolution?”
Josef,
what ever it is, I like the ring to it…
josef
August 29th, 2011
5:35 pm
BTW
Did anybody find out who the lunatic was from last p.m. Inquiring minds want to know…
Joe the Plutocrat
August 29th, 2011
5:36 pm
josef, I believe the honey badger is proof BOTH are in play
Bosch
August 29th, 2011
5:37 pm
md
Oh wait – do not agree with your notion of corps sitting on huge profits as bs- I’m with Bro on that one
josef
August 29th, 2011
5:37 pm
Normal…
Is kinda catchy!
jm
August 29th, 2011
5:37 pm
Bro 5:21
“What about when you have a fixed market, such as Microsoft in the PC environment… does that not negate much of those odds?”
Good question. The answer is it reduces it, but it doesn’t eliminate the benefits. In reality, if a monopolist prices the product in excess of its utility, no one will buy it.
Paul
August 29th, 2011
5:37 pm
@@
I can understand why SecState Clinton and SecDef Panetta would abhor the automatic triggers. DoD is big on programming. New acquisitions, upgrades, quantities, milestones, they’re all planned and funded years in advance. A trigger that makes cuts in a couple months throws them into havoc, because they aren’t about to cancel those programs. So they default to the normal operations and maintenance accounts (training, travel, operations of their weapons systems, that sort of stuff) and day to day operations come to a grinding halt. Then they scream poverty and mission failure, even though they’ve fenced off a huge part of their program.
I liked what McGovern had to say about policy differences doesn’t mean enemies and the examples of Dole and Nixon and others. He comes across to me as an extremely decent human being.
Joe the Plutocrat
August 29th, 2011
5:37 pm
excuse me, the FDA protects us from unsafe foods
josef
August 29th, 2011
5:38 pm
Joe the Plutocrat…
Hmmm…there’s a lot to be said for that…! I think I’m in agreement…
Bosch
August 29th, 2011
5:39 pm
Paul
It’s Neo-Pagan Agnostic Christian…. Geez!
Kamchak
August 29th, 2011
5:39 pm
Irrational exuberance.
Spices
Tulip bulbs
Junk bonds
Internet stocks
And finally — the very abodes that we live in.
All in an effort to get-rich-quick.
The free market couldn’t predict any of those. That’s what Econ 101 can never address.
Even Greenspan admitted he didn’t have a handle on irrational exuberance.
jm
August 29th, 2011
5:40 pm
Brosephus
August 29th, 2011
5:24 pm
Govt does not produce wealth Bosch
Lockheed Martin investors… Haliburton investors… XE investors….
————
Bro, a real economist would not argue that is wealth. Defense is a cost. Some defense produces wealth (basic protection against theft and invaders). Past that, it is an economic loss. We are not better off having had to deal with the USSR and dropping a zillion dollars on nukes and a trillion on Iraq.
AmVet
August 29th, 2011
5:40 pm
jonix, more important than who won, it was a fun, respectful discussion among the adults. Notwithstanding that others offered nothing constructive but “wry”observations about it or the parties involved and poor little Zap throwing tantrums because no one would pay attention to him.
Paul
August 29th, 2011
5:40 pm
josef
“Agnostic pagan? Is that intelligent design or evolution?”
He designed the overall persona then let it evolve.
It’s that kind of duality has Bruno all in a dither -
Dusty
August 29th, 2011
5:40 pm
Josef,
You are just in time to join “The Invasion of the PseudoScientists” brought on by a surge from Irene. Overlook the seaweed and dead fish. This too shall pass.
Just Another Anonymous One
August 29th, 2011
5:41 pm
Did anybody find out who the lunatic was from last p.m. Inquiring minds want to know…
Could you be more specific.
Paul
August 29th, 2011
5:42 pm
Bosch
“It’s Neo-Pagan Agnostic Christian…. Geez!”
josef just got here. I wanted to ease him into it….
jm
August 29th, 2011
5:42 pm
“The free market couldn’t predict any of those. ”
But it does correct it. (in the absence of government intervention) Instead, one might argue the malaise we’re in is because of the government intervention stopping the correction.
Paul
August 29th, 2011
5:42 pm
oh, Bosch…
You forgot “Jedi.”
didja see that, josef? He’s no longer Padawan. You must congratulate him.
md
August 29th, 2011
5:43 pm
Bosch……the operative word is “some” corps…….when used in context that “corps” are sitting on huge piles of cash, then it is definitely bs…………..
Since the majority of carps are small businesses, do the math.
And some of the big boys are only sitting on bigger profits because they slashed spending to the bone (layoffs).
josef
August 29th, 2011
5:44 pm
PAUL
Trinitarianism ought to drive Bruno off the deep end, eh?
ZamVet
Did I miss Zap? He won’t play with me and L-rd knows I keep trying…you, on the other hand, can get a rise out of him with just a howdy-do…
DUSTY
Seaweed and dead fish? Sounds like a Japanese restaurant menu… probably best I missed it.
pogo
August 29th, 2011
5:45 pm
“Dang that govt….dragging the private sector down by spending that resulted in things like the space program (no new technology there) and the internet.”
Yea right. Obama wants NASA now to become a Muslim outreach program and for any further US endeavours into space to be carried there by Chinese or Russian rockets. Yea, he has a real vision for NASA alright. Don’t you get it? NASA is nothing to Obama but a parasite that sucks away money that he could spend paying off the unions for their vote and spending for his “social justice” programs (again to buy him votes). The people in the private sector that have the money, both “small and large”, will not spend it until he is gone and really why should they considering that they know that if he gets re-elected he is going to try to carry on with his disasterous progressive/social engineering programs which wastes massive amounts of money? It is about time that the American people start to save money and not spend it if they don’t have it. Yea, that isn’t good for our service based economy but so be it. That is the only way that things will be righted. And liberal politics will also die in the process.
Obama is a president who projects uncertainty because really, when it comes down to it, all he cares about is himself. To him, this country and its people are an afterthought and believe me, as much as the liberals would like to think that the country is too “un-informed” to pick up on that, they aren’t. He is a phony and an imposter and he is only carrying out what he was trained to do and that is to spend public/private sector money in pursuit of the almighty vote. He is a true child of corrupt Chicago politics.
Kamchak
August 29th, 2011
5:46 pm
But it does correct it.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Only after a small minority collect the lion’s share.
Joe Mama
August 29th, 2011
5:47 pm
Joe P — “excuse me, the FDA protects us from unsafe foods”
USDA plays a role in that, too.
josef
August 29th, 2011
5:48 pm
Ananonymous
I guess I should have been more specific…Newcomer Lunatic…
PAUL
Well, he IS an Episcopalian!
Oh, and Bosch…
Shut up!
Paul
August 29th, 2011
5:48 pm
josef
“Trinitarianism ought to drive Bruno off the deep end, eh?”
LOL!
I was just taking a break from work and reading an article that included examinations of Latin trinitarianism and social trinitarianism.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
August 29th, 2011
5:49 pm
I must have missed the Fox report on the evil NASA conspiracy….
Dusty
August 29th, 2011
5:51 pm
Yes, Paul,
the duality of the singularity is mindful of the Siamese seminar of only one cell in two brains. Those are joined by two cans and a string and have in all probability, the communibility of two jelly fish and one crab. But that theory is still under the longevity of investigation and cannot be dismissed in any way. In other words, you can’t kill it as we observe with this blog.
Bosch
August 29th, 2011
5:51 pm
Oh damn Paul! I can’t believe I forgot Jedi! Blogging and driving makes me a little distracted.
And jm, your past few posts, I trust you have moved onto a different topic because nothing you’ve wrote proves the idea that private spending is more efficient.
Soothsayer
August 29th, 2011
5:51 pm
Gosh! Pogo! You had the “un-Obama” in the White House for 8 long years and things didn’t work out so well.
So, you’re saying that maybe we should try that again? Huh?
Joe the Plutocrat
August 29th, 2011
5:52 pm
Joe Mama, correct. I believe the FDA is specific to additives and drugs, whereas the USDA serves as the policeman for agriculturally produced foods (crops and livestock).
Paul
August 29th, 2011
5:52 pm
Dusty
Sounds more like survival of the fittest than intelligent design to me!
Bosch
August 29th, 2011
5:53 pm
Josef
LOL
Neo-Pagan Agnostic Christian or better known as Episcopalian!
getalife
August 29th, 2011
5:53 pm
Yeah, drilll, baby, drill will produce 15 million jobs?
Um, failed dave.
md
August 29th, 2011
5:54 pm
“Trinitarianism ought to drive Bruno off the deep end, eh?”
Sure confused the crap out of me as a kid……………..say what??
Bosch
August 29th, 2011
5:55 pm
md
The ones that are too big to fail? Sitting on tons of cash – not bullshyt-
md
August 29th, 2011
5:58 pm
No Bosch…….too many, including our esteemed host, have a tendency to throw out “corps are sitting on trillions of cash”…………………when in actuality, the majority are not.
Tends to be a misleading statement………………….
josef
August 29th, 2011
5:58 pm
PAUL
Trinitarianism…! Not long ago that was the topic drawn from the hat at the Sunday Morning Coffee Klatch..one of the participants is a rabbi…you should’ve been there for mine and his set-to…he decreed me a heretic because, divorced from the theological, I found no argument with the concept seeing’s how my argument was that we accept some amorphous Cre-ator, the Father, who made us in H-s own image, the flesh “The S-n,” but in H-s universiality is “The Sp-rit…” Rabbis ain’t always very fond of me, and that, as Granddaddy might say, is a good thing!
md
August 29th, 2011
5:58 pm
Going home to contemplate my space in infinity………………………..
kayaker 71
August 29th, 2011
5:59 pm
normal, 5:30,
funny, funny.
Doggone/GA
August 29th, 2011
5:59 pm
“Agnostic pagan?”
Is that someone who is waiting for proof that God doesn’t exist?
Kamchak
August 29th, 2011
5:59 pm
It is about time that the American people start to save money and not spend it if they don’t have it
The naïveté of that statement is beyond words.
Save money?
Where?
With interest rates at an effective 0% where is there a safe place to just save money?
With a bank and their endless fees?
Too funny.
jm
August 29th, 2011
6:00 pm
Bosch I thought you had something worthwhile to go do
josef
August 29th, 2011
6:01 pm
PAUL
But what if evolution IS intelligent design? Hunh? Remember Biff Rose’s “Evolution?”
AmVet
August 29th, 2011
6:01 pm
md, don’t hurt yourself! (grin)
Colin Powell was remarkably reserved in his condemnation of some of the crap in Dickhead’s new book.
How he ever got mixed up with the Bungling Gang the Couldn’t Shoot Straight is beyond me…
Bosch
August 29th, 2011
6:03 pm
No md we don’t say write or even hint that they ALL do, but the ones who drive our economy….like I’ve wrote twice now “too big to fail” DO
Paul
August 29th, 2011
6:04 pm
josef
That’s an interesting take on it. I can see where the rabbi would come at it from a traditional definition, and you would come at it as….. only you could! I would have loved to sit in on it.
I’m going to repost something I posted this morning and reposted when Bosch arrived. There are a couple of you I thought would appreciate the implications – the others already showed up around posting time. And most of those who were here than appear to have left. So the rest of you can skip to the next post.
Had an interesting experience yesterday (kinda fits in with the topic). My wife received an email from a friend of her’s who’s a member of the Latter-day Saint church. They were taking part in an interfaith outreach with the local Muslim community with the ending of that day’s Ramadan fast. We went. It is a small community, there were a few guests. They were very open, very gracious. Invited everyone in for prayers, then outside for their break the fast meal (wonderful food). I sat at a table with a petroleum engineer who’d taught at U of Oklahoma, Colorado School of Mines and Technology and a university in Ohio. Another guy was a CPA. Sat next to the imam.
They were open about their faith – I took away a lot of the same concerns as people of faith anywhere have. How to keep kids centered, true to their communities. How do they bring back those who’ve left How to engage those who come to America who want to keep one foot in their faith and another in the secular experience. Their overriding emphasis on giving, not taking and doing works of charity.
I asked if they’d been to other religious groups. Answer was LDS had invited them to several – youth programs, worship services, that sort of stuff. They’d attended. I asked who had responded to their invitations. Imam said the small independent church next door and the LDS. Said no one else had accepted their offers.
End of the day, it was all about understanding and acceptance. Theirs of the nonIslamic community and the nonIslamic community of them. It was a great way to spend a Sunday.
jm
August 29th, 2011
6:04 pm
“How he ever got mixed up with the Bungling Gang the Couldn’t Shoot Straight is beyond me…”
Translation: I only agree with someone and think they’re smart when they agree with me on one issue.
Bosch
August 29th, 2011
6:05 pm
jm
I do. I’m picking up my daughter. With my iPhone I can blog and drive at the same time!
Dusty
August 29th, 2011
6:05 pm
And now comes TRINNITARIANISM. Is that three fatties in a volkswagon? Larry, Curly & Moe? The Andrews Sisters?
Sorry, but the stupefying studies of serious subjects by subprime students invokes the greater child of irreverance. I shall depart to the realm of reason, the KITCHEN. It’s Fred’s fault. He told me about all the good stuff he was cookin’. I’m hungry!!
poison pen
August 29th, 2011
6:07 pm
Mental illness rise linked to climate
Erik Jensen Health
August 29, 2011.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/mental-illness-rise-linked-to-climate-20110828-1jger.html#ixzz1WSSlDuh1
I can now understand what happened to Liberals.
josef
August 29th, 2011
6:07 pm
PAUL
Ooops…the title is “Paradise Almost Lost…”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsrS_vQLCnQ
Bosch
August 29th, 2011
6:08 pm
Doggone
Yes exactly with the stipulation that if your wrong the God is the Christian one.
AmVet
August 29th, 2011
6:09 pm
Translation: jm voted for that bungling gang twice.
“The president knows that I told him what I thought about every issue of the day,” Powell said.
At the time, Powell said he told the president, “If you break it, you own it,” in reference to the invasion. That was advice he said Cheney “may forget.”
“You have got to understand that if we have to go to war in Iraq, we have to be prepared for the whole war, not just the first phase,” Powell said. “And Mr. Cheney and many of his colleagues did not prepare for what happened after the fall of Baghdad.”
Jay
August 29th, 2011
6:11 pm
Personally, it is hard to imagine a more intellectually bankrupt position than that adopted by those who try to explain away climate change by alleging fraud on the part of the scientific community.
I mean, really, that’s your explanation? A conspiracy of tens of thousands of scientists around the globe — a conspiracy that includes scientific associations comprising every field of inquiry from mathematics to engineering to atmospheric science?
It’s akin to claiming the moon is made of green cheese.
For the record, every single investigation into so-called “ClimateGate,” both in Great Britain and here in the United States, has cleared scientists of any implication that they created, fabricated or manipulated data documenting a historically unprecedented rise in global temperature.
Every.
Single.
Investigation.
But of course, they’re ALL part of the conspiracy too, right?
Paul
August 29th, 2011
6:12 pm
josef
Thanks for the link. Cleared up the earlier post -
getalife
August 29th, 2011
6:14 pm
A vast left wing conspiracy Jay.
You betcha
Paul
August 29th, 2011
6:15 pm
Jay
“Personally, it is hard to imagine a more intellectually bankrupt position than that adopted by those who try to explain away climate change by alleging fraud on the part of the scientific community.”
Well, Gov Perry did say all those scientists did it so they could get grant money so they’d have jobs…..
If Perry survives, Huntsman ought to hit a Perry response with “that’s what happens when politicians think in sound bites and get policy from bumper stickers.’
josef
August 29th, 2011
6:16 pm
PAUL
I’m glad you had the experience. I’ve had many similar ones. The Muslims make the point that, they keep asking us to speak up and out, yet when we invite them to come visit with us and see who we are, what we think, what we believe and how we worship, they won’t.
I guess it’s just the way I was raised, but I was taught to go and find out. If you want someone to respect the way you believe, you have to respect theirs and that means going to see and hear them on “home turf.”
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
August 29th, 2011
6:16 pm
I shall depart to the realm of reason, the KITCHEN. It’s Fred’s fault. He told me about all the good stuff he was cookin’. I’m hungry!!
And I’ll pray for your husband when he’s in the hospitle again with food poisoning, Sister Dusty.
Anyhow, I’m headed for the trash cans outside with the 10 lbs. of junk mail I got last week. One teeny power bill, one teeny gas bill, one teeny cable bill, and the rest pure junk from the shysters that run the stores and think I’m stupid enough to buy three pizzas to get one free. Except for the 3 lbs. from AT&T, which just sent the last of 33 ads I’ve got about AT&T UVerse. If it’s so good, why do they need to advertize it so much to get people to buy it?
Then it’s a couple or ten PBRs, some fried pork skins, and FoxNews till bed time. That’s the only way I can get The Truth and indigestion all at the same time. I guess I’ll turn my laptop off. Wouldn’t want the missus to see that picture of Michelle Bachmann Sooth sent me. That’s some hot dog! Have a good night everybody.
Jay
August 29th, 2011
6:16 pm
It is not a REASON for dismissing climate science.
it is an EXCUSE for dismissing climate science. And there’s a huge difference between the two.
Soothsayer
August 29th, 2011
6:18 pm
That would explain why sea level is 15 inches higher now than at the start of the industrial revolution.
josef
August 29th, 2011
6:19 pm
JAY
More importantly, is climate change science or intelligent design?
jm
August 29th, 2011
6:22 pm
Bosch 6:05 – remind me to keep an eye out for drivers like you…… or depending on how machiavellian you are, maybe you won’t
Paul
August 29th, 2011
6:24 pm
josef
I was struck by the openness. Table I was at, very little of a doctrinal nature. Lots about the practical aspect of their religion and how the American experience affected them and their families.
Kamchak
August 29th, 2011
6:26 pm
…… or depending on how machiavellian you are…
Bosch is a real prince.
jm
August 29th, 2011
6:27 pm
Jay 6:16 – I’d say the odds are like 99.99% certain that manmade CO2 is warming the planet. (physics 101, a discussion Bosch and I had, or mostly I had with myself earlier that you missed)
Now, that doesn’t mean the temperature is going to go up or down simply because of CO2 because there are a lot of other things that could be influencing the temperature (given that we had ice ages and thaws way before humans popped up).
Point is, I think if we can find a good way to minimize CO2 emissions, and maintain an improving quality of life for everyone, we should do so. But we should minimize the financial cost as much as possible.
Soothsayer
August 29th, 2011
6:27 pm
Jay, if you think I’m gonna give up my SUV, you’re crazy! My ego just won’t fit in nothing smaller!
Bosch
August 29th, 2011
6:28 pm
Paul
Yeah ALL those scientists live on the federal grant high hog. LOL
Seriously somebody should tell Perry that for every federal grant only about 30 percent of applicants get funded (last figures I heard were even lower)
Keep Up the Good Fight!
August 29th, 2011
6:29 pm
Since when is “ego” a code word for what you put in your seat?
Dusty
August 29th, 2011
6:29 pm
Who in the world awoke/awakened Bookman? We finished off climate change a long time ago and went to something interesting like TRIINITARIAISM just after we left gravity.
Then Bookman comes dragging in. You’d think he’d be proud of this intellectual crowd (espcially RedNeck). But no! Gripe gripe gripe!!
josef
August 29th, 2011
6:30 pm
“Bosch is a real prince.”
Of Peace?
PAUL
Well, you knows they was jus puttin’ on a show to lull us into complacency whilts they prepare to impose Sharia on us all…
jm
August 29th, 2011
6:30 pm
On CO2 emissions, you’d think this would be a relatively simple argument.
Between national security, economic, and environmental reasons (even if this one is dismissed, the first 2 make huge sense), you’d think we’d be driving natural gas (or diesel) cars (and trucks) and making intelligent investments in the grid…..
jm
August 29th, 2011
6:32 pm
“the moon is made of green cheese.”
Bosch doesn’t want to discuss gravity and mass, so for all he knows it is green cheese.
outta here
Bosch
August 29th, 2011
6:32 pm
Kamchak
I think jm’s upset because I stopped paying him theattention he sooooooo desperately craves.
Joe Mama
August 29th, 2011
6:32 pm
Dusty — “And now comes TRINNITARIANISM. Is that three fatties in a volkswagon? Larry, Curly & Moe? The Andrews Sisters?”
It’s Sting, Stewart and Andy. The Police.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Police
Soothsayer
August 29th, 2011
6:35 pm
“Between national security, economic, and environmental reasons (even if this one is dismissed, the first 2 make huge sense), you’d think we’d be driving natural gas (or diesel) cars (and trucks) and making intelligent investments in the grid…..”
Between national security, economic, and environmental reasons (even if this one is dismissed, the first 2 make huge sense), you’d think we’d be driving hydrogen-powered cars and camelina-powered trucks (and aircraft) and making intelligent investments in the grid…..(like converting to solar power and abandoning nuclear power and pouring research into new battery power).
Kamchak
August 29th, 2011
6:35 pm
Of Peace?
More so than say — Cesár Borja.
Joe the Plutocrat
August 29th, 2011
6:36 pm
Sooth, you’re looking at it all wrong. if sea levels have risen 15 feet in the past 200 or so years; think of it as “more water” which we need because our population has increased probably 15x as well.
JB, do you really think people who listen to Rush Limbaugh, or support Rick Perry, Michelle Bachman or Sarah Palin have an interest in the scientific opinions of “tens of thousands” of scientists? these are the same people who think the Mission was Accomplised, Brownie did a great job, and the 2008 meltdown was caused be people who “bought too much house”. while I agree there is a conspiracy to profit (financially and politically, as if there is a difference) from the reality of climate change, there is also an climate change denial conspiracy being executed by those who would profit from the reality if evangelical Christianity; and I am CERTAIN evangelical Christianity is “manmade”
Bosch
August 29th, 2011
6:36 pm
No j’m I don’t because it had nothing to do with what Doom and I were discussing but the next time I’m actually discussing gravity I’ll play with you, K?
Joe the Plutocrat
August 29th, 2011
6:37 pm
Sooth, lo siento – 15″
Soothsayer
August 29th, 2011
6:37 pm
The entire argument from the Right can be boiled down into one simple statement:
We focked up the entire economy. Your guy can’t fix it. Now, therefore, elect us. (Again)
Makes sense to me. How about you?
poison pen
August 29th, 2011
6:39 pm
Dr David Evans’ address to the Anti-Carbon-Tax rally, Perth Australia, 23 March 2011.
Dr David Evans consulted full-time for the Australian Greenhouse Office (now the Department of Climate Change) from 1999 to 2005, and part-time 2008 to 2010, modelling Australia’s carbon in plants, debris, mulch, soils, and forestry and agricultural products. Evans is a mathematician and engineer, with six university degrees including a PhD from Stanford University in electrical engineering. The area of human endeavour with the most experience and sophistication in dealing with feedbacks and analysing complex systems is electrical engineering, and the most crucial and disputed aspects of understanding the climate system are the feedbacks. The evidence supporting the idea that CO2 emissions were the main cause of global warming reversed itself from 1998 to 2006, causing Evans to move from being a warmist to a sceptic.
“I am a scientist who was on the carbon gravy train, understands the evidence, was once an alarmist, but am now a sceptic.”
It’s a Scam
Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen.
The debate about global warming has reached ridiculous proportions and is full of micro thin half-truths and misunderstandings. I am a scientist who was on the carbon gravy train, I understand the evidence, I was once an alarmist, but I am now a sceptic.
Watching this issue unfold has been amusing but, lately, worrying. This issue is tearing society apart, making fools and liars out of our politicians. Let’s set a few things straight.
The whole idea that carbon dioxide is the main cause of the recent global warming is based on a guess, which was proved false by empirical evidence during the 1990s. But the gravy train was too big, with too many jobs, industries, trading profits, political careers, and the possibility of world government and total control riding on the outcome. So rather than admit they were wrong, the governments, and their tame climate scientists, now cheat and lie outrageously to maintain the fiction about carbon dioxide being a dangerous pollutant.
Let’s be perfectly clear. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, and other things being equal, the more carbon dioxide in the air, the warmer the planet. Every bit of carbon dioxide that we emit warms the planet. But the issue is not whether carbon dioxide warms the planet, but how much.
Most scientists, on both sides, also agree on how much a given increase in the level of carbon dioxide raises the planet’s temperature, if just the extra carbon dioxide is considered. These calculations come from laboratory experiments; the basic physics have been well known for a century.
The disagreement comes about what happens next.
The planet reacts to the extra carbon dioxide, which changes everything. Most critically, the extra warmth causes more water to evaporate from the oceans. But does the water hang around and increase the height of moist air in the atmosphere, or does it simply create more clouds and rain? Back in 1980, when the carbon dioxide theory started, no one knew. The alarmists guessed that it would increase the height of moist air around the planet, which would warm the planet even further, because the moist air is also a greenhouse gas.
This is the core idea of every official climate model: for each bit of warming due to carbon dioxide, they claim it ends up causing three bits of warming due to the extra moist air. The climate models amplify the carbon dioxide warming by a factor of three – so two thirds of their projected warming is due to extra moist air (and other factors), only one third is due to extra carbon dioxide.
I’ll bet you didn’t know that. Hardly anyone in the public does, but it’s the core of the issue. All the disagreements, lies, and misunderstanding spring from this. The alarmist case is based on this guess about moisture in the atmosphere, and there is simply no evidence for the amplification that is at the core of their alarmism. Which is why the alarmists keep so quiet about it and you’ve never heard of it before. And it tells you what a poor job the media have done in covering this issue.
Weather balloons had been measuring the atmosphere since the 1960s, many thousands of them every year. The climate models all predict that as the planet warms, a hot-spot of moist air will develop over the tropics about 10km up, as the layer of moist air expands upwards into the cool dry air above. During the warming of the late 1970s, 80s, and 90s, the weather balloons found no hotspot. None at all, not even a small one. This evidence proves the climate models are fundamentally flawed and they greatly overestimate the temperature increases due to carbon dioxide.
This evidence first became clear around the mid 1990s.
At this point official “climate science” stopped being a science. You see, in science empirical evidence always trumps theory, no matter how much you are in love with the theory. If theory and evidence disagree, real scientists scrap the theory. But official climate science ignored the crucial weather balloon evidence, and other subsequent evidence that backs it up, and instead clung to their carbon dioxide theory – this just happens to keep them in high-paying jobs with lavish research grants, and gives great political power to their government masters.
There are now several independent pieces of evidence showing that the earth responds to the warming due to extra carbon dioxide by dampening the warming. Every long-lived natural system behaves this way, counteracting any disturbances, otherwise the system would be unstable. The climate system is no exception, and now we can prove it.
But the alarmists say the exact opposite, that the climate system amplifies any warming due to extra carbon dioxide, and is potentially unstable. Surprise – surprise, their predictions of planetary temperature made in 1988 to the US Congress, and again in 1990, 1995, and 2001, have all proved much higher than reality.
They keep lowering the temperature increases they expect, from 0.30C per decade in 1990, to 0.20C per decade in 2001, and now 0.15C per decade – yet they have the gall to tell us “it’s worse than expected”. These people are not scientists. They over-estimate the temperature increases due to carbon dioxide, selectively deny evidence, and now they cheat and lie to conceal the truth.
One way they cheat is in the way they measure temperature.
The official thermometers are often located in the warm exhaust of air conditioning outlets, over hot tarmac at airports where they get blasts of hot air from jet engines, at wastewater plants where they get warmth from decomposing sewerage, or in hot cities choked with cars and buildings. Global warming is measured in tenths of a degree, so any extra heating nudge is important. In the US, nearly 90% of official thermometers surveyed by volunteers violate official siting requirements that they not be too close to an artificial heating source. Nearly 90%! The photos of these thermometers are on the Internet; you can get to them via the corruption paper at my site, sciencespeak.com. Look at the photos, and you’ll never trust a government climate scientist again.
They place their thermometers in warm localities, and call the results “global” warming. Anyone can understand that this is cheating. They say that 2010 is the warmest recent year, but it was only the warmest at various airports, selected air conditioners, and certain car parks.
Global temperature is also measured by satellites, which measure nearly the whole planet 24/7 without bias. The satellites say the hottest recent year was 1998, and that since 2001 the global temperature has levelled off.
So it’s a question of trust.
If it really is warming up as the government climate scientists say, why do they present only the surface thermometer results and not mention the satellite results? And why do they put their thermometers near artificial heating sources? This is so obviously a scam now.
So what is really going on with the climate?
The earth has been in a warming trend since the depth of the Little Ice Age around 1680. Human emissions of carbon dioxide were negligible before 1850 and have nearly all come after WWII, so human carbon dioxide cannot possibly have caused the trend. Within the trend, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation causes alternating global warming and cooling for 25 – 30 years at a go in each direction. We have just finished a warming phase, so expect mild global cooling for the next two decades.
We are now at an extraordinary juncture.
Official climate science, which is funded and directed entirely by government, promotes a theory which is based on a guess about moist air and is now a known falsehood. Governments gleefully accept their advice, because the only way to curb emissions is to impose taxes and extend government control over all energy use. And to curb emissions on a world scale might even lead to world government — how exciting for the political class!
A carbon tax?
Even if Australia stopped emitting all carbon dioxide tomorrow, completely shut up shop and went back to the stone age, according to the official government climate models it would be cooler in 2050 by about 0.015 degrees. But their models exaggerate tenfold – in fact our sacrifices would make the planet in 2050 a mere 0.0015 degrees cooler!
Sorry, but you’ve been had.
Finally, to those of you who still believe the planet is in danger from our carbon dioxide emissions: sorry, but you’ve been had. Yes carbon dioxide is a cause of global warming, but it’s so minor it’s not worth doing much about.
Guardian, 2/feb/2010 is another article on Scientists cheating.
Sorry Jay, But i’d rather believe scientists than a Journalists. This is almost as bad as you stating around Oct,27 2010 that no one has ever gone to jail for Voter Fraud, which you were mistaken, 18 people went to jail for it.
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Thanks for visiting my site. If you are looking for a left of centre opinion here Im sad to say you have come to the wrong place. I hope to share with with you common sense opinion that seems to be sadly lacking in today’s media. Please leave me feedback … Continue reading »
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Bosch
August 29th, 2011
6:39 pm
Jay
As I’ve pointed out before the wingnuts like to think their voice in the discussion is being taken seriously.
Kamchak
August 29th, 2011
6:39 pm
I think jm’s upset because I stopped paying him theattention he sooooooo desperately craves.
Probably why he’s in the financial services industry.
josef
August 29th, 2011
6:39 pm
K’Chak…
Well, Bosch does have certain connections with that time and place he won’t tell us about…
Dusty
August 29th, 2011
6:40 pm
Josef,
Several Muslims have come to our church at our invitation. One was a businessman. The other a young women in theatre who was a friend of a church member. They were both gracious, attractive people and we enjoyed their presence. They explained how they felt the goodness of their faith. We enjoyed their interpretation although we did not have much time for discussion. They spoke between the main services.
There is no way we could connect their personal belief to terrorism. Nor did we want to. Extremism is a thorn in every faith.
poison pen
August 29th, 2011
6:41 pm
Sorry for the last piece, don’t know how that got in, and sorry for the long post.
There are many sites that claim the opposite of what Jay claims. Google is your friend Jay.
josef
August 29th, 2011
6:41 pm
poison
Can we get an abstract?