In upstate NY, an early referendum on RyanCare

U.S. Rep-elect Kathy Hochul, D-NY

U.S. Rep-elect Kathy Hochul, D-NY

UPDATE: Democrat Kathy Hochul has won the seat, and Republican Jane Corwin has conceded. It wasn’t even all that close. The numbers I’m seeing put the margin at 47/42, with a third party candidate drawing 9 percent.

The Republican would have had to take almost every one of Davis’s votes to win. Politics doesn’t work like that, as the Siena poll cited below reports. It shows Jack Davis, the third-party candidate who had run previously as a Democrat, drawing roughly equal support from both parties. He was drawing 10 percent of district Democrats and 13 percent of district Republicans.

Bottom line: In a district where the GOP won with 76 percent of the vote in 2010, in a district represented by just three Democrats since the 1850s, the Republicans lost.

————–

Many of you may remember Chris Lee. He was the Republican congressman from upstate New York — excuse me, the married Republican congressman from upstate New York — who was caught trolling for dates on Craigslist, claiming to be single.

Lee initially tried to deny the charge, claiming someone else had hacked into his computer account. But once a woman produced a photo of a shirtless. preening Lee, the gig was up and he was forced to resign.

In politics, it’s hard to recover from certain mistakes.

That lesson may be taught again today in a very different way in New York’s 26th Congressional District, which Lee represented. Voters go to the polls today to elect a replacement, and since Lee won election with 76 percent of the vote last November, it ought to be an easy Republican victory. (Since 1857, the district has elected just three Democrats.)

But that’s where the mistake comes in.

A month ago, House Republicans voted overwhelmingly in favor of a plan to convert Medicare to a privatized voucher system that over time would cover less and less of the cost of health insurance for senior citizens. By 2030, the Congressional Budget Office estimates, the voucher would cover just 32 percent of the cost of health insurance for a new retiree, with the senior citizen forced to cover the rest.

That proposed change has proved wildly unpopular with the American people. The fact that the same budget proposal would also cut taxes significantly on the wealthy has only added insult to the very real injury. And all that spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Jane Corwin, the GOP candidate for Lee’s seat

Corwin has publicly endorsed RyanCare, saying she would have voted for the proposal. Her main opponent, Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul, then turned that commitment into the main issue of the campaign, and as a result has a real chance of winning tonight. A new Siena College poll gives her a slight lead, just outside the margin of error.

If you look at the crosstabs of that poll, you find that the district breaks down 41/35 percent in favor of Republicans. But 59 percent of the voters polled are 55 years old or older.

A Democratic victory in that district would certainly “concentrate some minds” among Washington Republicans, forcing them to look back in regret at their own decision to embrace RyanCare so enthusiastically.

Like Lee’s decision to pose for his beefcake shot, it seemed like such a good idea at the time.

– Jay Bookman

459 comments Add your comment

jm

May 24th, 2011
4:26 pm

Jay, isn’t this three way race where a Tea Party candidate and the Republican are splitting the conservative vote?

If so, your conclusions seem way off base.

jm

May 24th, 2011
4:28 pm

Um, Jay, this appears very intellectually dishonest. The facts: the Dem’s going to win with 42% of the vote, the balance going to conservatives. Ie, if it is a referendum on RyanCare, it would appear to be in the affirmative, not the negative.

—————–

Hochul held a 6-point lead with 42 percent over Corwin’s 36 percent, a Public Policy Polling survey released Sunday showed. Independent Jack Davis, running on the Tea Party line, received 13 percent support in the poll.

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/05/23/Poll-Democrat-poised-to-win-in-NY-26th/UPI-99191306194695/#ixzz1NIt2wNPt

jm

May 24th, 2011
4:31 pm

That UPI poll must have 9% undecided…… still, if the TP & R’s were not splitting the ticket, it appears R’s would have 49% of the vote to 42% for the Dem.

Still, not a RyanCare referendum. Just spin from the left.

jm

May 24th, 2011
4:31 pm

Must be a referendum on beefcakes :)

ByteMe

May 24th, 2011
4:32 pm

Couldn’t you have taken a page from Jeff Schultz and posted some hot volleyball women instead?

Chris Lee: Yick.

Jay

May 24th, 2011
4:34 pm

jm, the third candidate in the race is a self-funder who has run repeatedly in the past as a Democrat, not as a conservative. His support is falling quickly, and most of the votes he is losing seem to be going to the Democrat.

In addition, if you look at the crosstabs, Corwin has a 43/49 favorable/unfavorable rating, while Hochul’s breakdown is 55/38.

So no, I don’t think it’s intellectually dishonest in the least.

Yahtzee

May 24th, 2011
4:34 pm

Jay,

Couldn’t you have made your point about Republicans supporting RyanCare and how it may effect the polls without posting the pic of the former Representative? Kinda weird..

Granny Godzilla

May 24th, 2011
4:34 pm

but… but… but….

when you try the “bait and switch” (see Medicare as Voucher idea) with the entire GOP (which is no longer Conservative Republican but driven by fringe far right tea partiers) you must accept personal responsibility for what you have done to the political landscape.

y’all made y’alls bed, rest in peace.

Finn McCool

May 24th, 2011
4:36 pm

Go ahead, push that Ryan Care. The seniors I know, know it’s a bad deal.

jm

May 24th, 2011
4:37 pm

Jay 4:34 – ah. So Jack Davis is really a Democrat running as a Tea Party spoiler? What a circus. Well, I guess we’ll see what happens.

If the Dem loses, are you going to call this a referendum in the affirmative for RyanCare?

md

May 24th, 2011
4:38 pm

Another wonderful example of why “crisis management” is in our future………..

EVERYBODY wants someone else to cut back……….that math will never add up.

St Simons - we're on Island time

May 24th, 2011
4:40 pm

or if you’re watching Faux, “replacing Chris Lee – D “

md

May 24th, 2011
4:40 pm

About to comment on that sterotypical comment on Jo, and next thing I know, it’s gone.

At least you saw your boo boo early……………

jm

May 24th, 2011
4:41 pm

md 4:38 – bingo….. I keep trying to buy S&P puts through the end of the year, but they just got a lot more expensive.

Jay

May 24th, 2011
4:41 pm

jm, the national Tea Party folks have been all over that district, calling Davis a “fraud,” etc.

And for those bothered by the Chris Lee photo, a few seconds gazing at the ad on the lower right should fix things for you quickly.

jm

May 24th, 2011
4:42 pm

Is there a runoff if someone doesn’t get 50%?…

Jay

May 24th, 2011
4:42 pm

md, I had confused jm’s beefcake remark with josef’s. (I read these comments on the blog software, where the comments from all my blogs stream in).

jm

May 24th, 2011
4:43 pm

md 4:40 – yeah, saw that too. :)

Doggone/GA

May 24th, 2011
4:46 pm

“If the Dem loses, are you going to call this a referendum in the affirmative for RyanCare?”

It would depend on the margin, wouldn’t it? If Lee originally won with 76% and this vote turns out to be a “squeaker” for the Republicans, that’s still more than a little a victory for the Democrats.

Jay

May 24th, 2011
4:47 pm

The Siena poll also shows Medicare, the deficit and jobs in a virtual tie for most important issue. Among those citing Medicare, the Democrat has a 29-point advantage.

Jay

May 24th, 2011
4:50 pm

No, no runoff.

TaxPayer

May 24th, 2011
4:50 pm

I think the Republicans need to stick with their mandate that they were given in the last election — keep pushing for eliminating medicare and medicaid and food stamps, etc., so you can give trillions in additional tax cuts to the wealthiest without even reducing the national debt. Don’t let the complaints sway you. The wealthiest need you now more than ever.

Joe Mama

May 24th, 2011
4:50 pm

Eye bleach please, Jay. :p

Dave R.

May 24th, 2011
4:50 pm

“In upstate NY, an early referendum on RyanCare”

Only in Bookman Fantasyland.

IF you win a 3-way race with 42% and your opponents are a Republican and a Tea Party independent (despite their past Democrat affiliation), no such referendum exists.

Unless you want to say that 58% of that district supports Ryan’s plan.

And no, jm, there is no runoff for less than 50% in New York.

But the left, desperate for ANY campaign successes following the Nov 2010 shellacking, are going to be hanging on this one (if it happens) for all that they can.

md

May 24th, 2011
4:51 pm

“And for those bothered by the Chris Lee photo, a few seconds gazing at the ad on the lower right should fix things for you quickly.”

On my screen, it’s for “Lunesta”…….the other half must not have been able to sleep again last night….

Guess I’ll have to check out the Victoria’s secret site again to get the better adds………….

poison pen

May 24th, 2011
4:51 pm

Granny Godzilla

May 24th, 2011
4:34 pm
but… but… but….

when you try the “bait and switch” (see Medicare as Voucher idea) with the entire GOP (which is no longer Conservative Republican but driven by fringe far right tea partiers) you must accept personal responsibility for what you have done to the political landscape.

y’all made y’alls bed, rest in peace.

The entire GOP, Granny, are you nuts, or just plain ignorant? You are becoming worse then Tucker.

poison pen

May 24th, 2011
4:52 pm

Taxpayer, that’s better than giving it to Terrorists.

Jay

May 24th, 2011
4:52 pm

Well, Dave R., GOP officials will probably say much the same thing if they lose this race.

But the tell will come in how they ACT afterward, not what they say. And if they lose, I bet they start looking for cover.

jm

May 24th, 2011
4:52 pm

Doggone 4:46 – I don’t disagree. The fact that its even close means:

A. Confirmation RyanCare is very unpopular among at least some actively voting quarters, or.
B. People are really hacked off about a dirtbag Republican cheating on his wife and trying to hook up while away in DC.

I don’t know which. But who ultimately wins or loses is being over-hyped. As I said, the fact that its even close says something.

Dave R.

May 24th, 2011
4:53 pm

Oh, and Jay? Way to pander to josef on the whole “beefcake” thing.

Next thing you know, you’ll be letting him spout Civil War history without resorting to “fresh sheets upstairs”. ;)

Message from Matti

May 24th, 2011
4:54 pm

Heh… he said, “Shellacking.” Is there a category for that on Craig’s List? There should be, the way some people get suck a kick out of saying it all the time, like it means something.

Peadawg

May 24th, 2011
4:54 pm

So, Jay…what’s your plan to cut Medicare?

Me thinks a certain percentage cut ACROSS THE BOARD, PERIOD as well as tax increases in the uber rich.

retired early

May 24th, 2011
4:55 pm

This is just the beginning of the beat down Republicans will reap at the polls thanks to their fear of the Tea Party. A moderate Republican has no chance to represent the party. The GOP leadership should never have let the Tea Party take over…but that’s what they did…and look where it’s got them.

Dave R.

May 24th, 2011
4:55 pm

“And if they lose, I bet they start looking for cover.”

Bet they don’t . . .

Jay

May 24th, 2011
4:56 pm

Double or nothing on the beer, Dave R?

Doggone/GA

May 24th, 2011
4:57 pm

“As I said, the fact that its even close says something”

Yes, that’s what I find interesting also. I agree that it’s debatable if this really is a referendum on the Ryan plan. Only time will tell about that.

Paul

May 24th, 2011
4:57 pm

“A Democratic victory in that district would certainly “concentrate some minds” among Washington Republicans, forcing them to look back in regret at their own decision to embrace RyanCare so enthusiastically. ”

Look back with regret, maybe. Keep charging forward, most certainly.

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
‘Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns!’ he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
‘Forward, the Light Brigade!’
Was there a man dismay’d?
Not tho’ the soldier knew
Someone had blunder’d:
Their’s not to make reply,
Their’s not to reason why,
Their’s but to do and die:

poison pen

May 24th, 2011
4:58 pm

It seems that no matter what a person reads about either party none of it is any good. No wonder there is such discourse between everyone.
Read a left wing blog and get CRAP.
Read a right wing blog and get CRAP.

We need a third party then we could all CRAP on them.

Hillbilly Deluxe

May 24th, 2011
4:59 pm

Upstate NY is a nice place to visit but I don’t really care who they elect to Congress. I’m guessing they do like everybody, everywhere and vote on local issues. We’ve got plenty of our own scoundrels to worry about down here, they can worry about theirs.

jm

May 24th, 2011
4:59 pm

Jay, if you look at Q7 and Q10, it would seem to indicate some confusion among Davis supporters as to whether he is a TPer or a Democrat….. (ie, if Davis is really a Dem, his supporters are being hoodwinked, at least for the moment, despite the Tea Party “voter education” efforts)

Tommy Maddox

May 24th, 2011
4:59 pm

Well, what would you expect when you compare The Ryan Plan with the Democrats’ Plan.

What? They don’t have a plan? Well that’s okay…

Doggone/GA

May 24th, 2011
5:00 pm

“We need a third party then we could all CRAP on them”

Nope. If anything we need 2 more parties. Otherwise, a third party just steals votes mostly from the main side they are closer to.

Jay

May 24th, 2011
5:00 pm

The problem with people who want a third party is that each one of them has a different idea of what that third party ought to stand and fight for.

Ergo, no third party.

jm

May 24th, 2011
5:00 pm

Doggone. Looks like the seat has been solidly Red since the 50’s, but with one 10 year exception (in the 90’s and early 00’s).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_26th_congressional_district

So, one is inclined to say, its generally a Republican district, but not as much of a “traditional” lock as one might think.

Granny Godzilla

May 24th, 2011
5:01 pm

PP

The entire GOP, Granny, are you nuts, or just plain ignorant? You are becoming worse then Tucker.

I like nuts, good for ya’. I tolerate plain ignorance – as in responding to you and I have respect for Ms. Tucker

yep, the entire GOP…..funny irony that purity pledge thing considering the red states have the highest numbers of divorce, out of wedlock babies…..

PP, you really aren’t a very nice person.

Dave R.

May 24th, 2011
5:01 pm

“We need a third party then we could all CRAP on them.”

A third party is a great idea in theory, but not in practice, poison pen. While NY state is very “liberal in their allowing third parties on the ballot, most other states (Georgia being notable for some of the most restrictive ballot access laws) are not. It is nothing short of a hijacking of fundamental voting rights to restrict ballot access the way many states do, but both major parties are only interested in keeping THEIR access open to maintain power.

Hillbilly Deluxe

May 24th, 2011
5:02 pm

We need a third party then we could all CRAP on them.

The only way a third party can have a chance is to be centrist and draw votes from both sides, and I’m all for that. Otherwise, if it’s a left leaning party, it’ll insure a Republican victory and if it’s a right leaning party, it’ll insure a Democratic victory. That idea didn’t originate with me but it’s the truth.

Message from Matti

May 24th, 2011
5:03 pm

Doggone/GA gives the best response to the third-party question at 5:03.

Doggone/GA

May 24th, 2011
5:03 pm

“Ergo, no third party.”

And even if we had 100 parties, when it comes time to vote on bills there’s only 2 parties anyway: those for and those against.

Hillbilly Deluxe

May 24th, 2011
5:04 pm

both major parties are only interested in keeping THEIR access open to maintain power.

Yep, they can divide it among themselves, with no “outside” interference.

jm

May 24th, 2011
5:05 pm

I get pretty annoyed with 2 parties. A 3rd party would just be someone new to get annoyed with.

Doggone/GA

May 24th, 2011
5:05 pm

“The only way a third party can have a chance is to be centrist and draw votes from both sides”

It wouldn’t work. A third party, in two party system can’t ever be “centrist” enough. They are still going to pull more votes from the side they lean closer to.

josef nix

May 24th, 2011
5:05 pm

Damn! I just got here only to find out that somehow I already said something..y’all fill me in…I was still down below dealing with domestic colonialism and linguistic imperialism, and I find out that somehow I’m also here discussing beefcake…oh, well, let’s get Jews and Romany in there and I’ll have covered all bases… :-)

AmVet

May 24th, 2011
5:05 pm

Having lived nearly three years in the Niagara Frontier, albeit a long time ago, I can tell you from personal experience that the 26th, in western NY, is a very strange place. A weird conglomeration of suburbanites and rural NYC hating hicks. (Yep, they have them in NY!)

Given that, it does not surprise me that it has been historically dead red.

But yet another con sleazeball has put that run at risk, huh?

md

May 24th, 2011
5:05 pm

We essentially already have a third party……they are called independents. And it is their vote that usually changes elections……hence the name “swing voters”.

poison pen

May 24th, 2011
5:07 pm

Granny Godzilla

May 24th, 2011
5:01 pm
PP

The entire GOP, Granny, are you nuts, or just plain ignorant? You are becoming worse then Tucker.

I like nuts, good for ya’. I tolerate plain ignorance – as in responding to you and I have respect for Ms. Tucker

yep, the entire GOP…..funny irony that purity pledge thing considering the red states have the highest numbers of divorce, out of wedlock babies…..

PP, you really aren’t a very nice person
Granny, never said that I was nice, and what in the Hell does divorce have to do with the price of a beer?
I just get upset when people like you lump other people into one catagory, it’s like me saying that Liberals are racists, I know it’s not true but it would be a dumb and ignorant statement, don’t you agree?

Jay

May 24th, 2011
5:08 pm

I thought you had commented on the beefcake, josef, confusing you with jm.

jm

May 24th, 2011
5:09 pm

I swear its a beefcake referendum.

The two women candidates are (individually or combined) way out polling the guy candidate.

My theory is women will ultimately rule this country because the guys can’t manage their zipper and dirtbags are not popular hereabouts (as opposed to, say, France).

josef nix

May 24th, 2011
5:10 pm

JAY

Why? Snicker-snicker time or what? Unh, hunh…making assumptions there, now arent’f you. F*ggot Fatwah on yo Scalawag a33! :-)

Hillbilly Deluxe

May 24th, 2011
5:11 pm

We essentially already have a third party……they are called independents. And it is their vote that usually changes elections……hence the name “swing voters”.

That’s true but we’re usually choosing what we consider to be the lesser of 2 evils. It’d be nice to pick the lesser of 3 evils. We nearly had that chance once ’til the space aliens showed up. :lol:

Larry

May 24th, 2011
5:13 pm

What’s that in his right hand?

Jay

May 24th, 2011
5:13 pm

jm, Question 8 tells us that Davis gets 10 percent of the Democratic vote and 13 percent of the GOP vote so …. a wash, I’d say.

Jay

May 24th, 2011
5:14 pm

What, he’s not your type, Josef? You like ‘em on the swarthy side?

josef nix

May 24th, 2011
5:16 pm

Imam…

Are you sure you want to go there? :-)

I seem to recall a picture you posted of yourself dancing with L’il One…my type? W-e-e-e-l-l-l in another time and another place…

And yes, do have a preference for the swarthy…

But, still, you didn’t answer me…WHY? There’s something here I’m really interested in knowing…

AmVet

May 24th, 2011
5:18 pm

HD, LOL! Or as Ralph calls them, “The evil of the two lessers.”

And gimme a break.

Third party candidates are second class citizens in America. Close to pariahs.

Our American Politburo demands it.

We can’t have no stinking competitive democracy. No sir…

md

May 24th, 2011
5:18 pm

“My theory is women will ultimately rule this country because the guys can’t manage their zipper and dirtbags are not popular hereabouts (as opposed to, say, France).”

Well….it does take 2 to tango…….women are not immune to scandal, but somehow, we tend to view those scandals with not so much fervor……….

josef nix

May 24th, 2011
5:22 pm

DAVE

Are you enjoying this as much as I am? :-)

Paul

May 24th, 2011
5:22 pm

AmVet

Used to live in the westernmost tip of NY state. I’d say they all hated NYC. Likened the state to a big toilet, with all the water (money) flowing down to NYC.

And from downstairs… you lasted 12 seconds longer than I did.

And I tried twice -

josef nix

May 24th, 2011
5:23 pm

Hillbilly

Ah, yes, the space aliens! And there I was, about to think there was something I could get behind…

Keep Up the Good Fight!

May 24th, 2011
5:23 pm

Okay, I have to admit I am out of the loop apparently on part of this election. What is going on with Corwin’s court order barring certification of an election that is in process?

The Buffalo News reports that Corwin was granted a court order from a New York state Supreme Court justice barring the certification of the winner of tonight’s special election.

Under the judge’s 11-page order, attorneys for Corwin have until Wednesday to serve copies of the court order on the election boards of Erie, Niagara, Genesee, Orleans, Wyoming, Livingston and Monroe counties, their sheriff’s departments, the state Board of Elections and her three opponents.
Pending court proceedings before Buscaglia on Thursday at the earliest, the judge also impounded all voting equipment and enjoined the canvass of paper ballots “except as directed by this court” and “temporarily enjoined and restrained from certifying” the winner pending that court hearing.

Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)

May 24th, 2011
5:24 pm

Well, I just made a note to myself never to stand buck nekkid in front of a camera. Or even half nekkid. Or even go within two miles of one of them lesbian bondage clubs. I got standards. They ain’t high, but I got ‘em.

Anyhow, we won’t never get rid of this welfare for the geezers if we back off of a sensible plan every time the old coots raise a ruckus. And they sure do raise a ruckus alot. I figure that with all their money, the nursing homes would be backing the Ryan plan to the hilt. Where else are the old people going to go when they find out the Ryan Medicare plan pays for a couple diaper changes and that’s it?

Anyhow, in about a year I expect to see alot of Conservative politicans running as far from the Ryan plan as they can get. These old folks are kind of puny, but they’re mighty mean at a ballot box. And they go to the ballot box every chance they get.

Have a good night everybody.

AmVet

May 24th, 2011
5:25 pm

Paul, I lived those three years on Grand Island. And loved it. Notwithstanding the “brisk” winter of 1977!

The food, the culture, the topography, the proximity to Toronto, the Sabres and Bills!

But it WAS the late 70s and the place was absolutely imploding. The closed steel mills in Lackawanna and Love Canal epitomized the downward spiral. That was the worst part – I had to get out of there. And did…

Where were you?

Keep Up the Good Fight!

May 24th, 2011
5:27 pm

Thanks Jay…I was just reading the court order to catch up…..Its been a long time since I did NY law….

After the fiasco in Waukesha, WI and the real possibility of vote tampering there, manipulated machines and what may be true voter fraud by the Republican leadership, I am all for locking down the ballots.

Jay

May 24th, 2011
5:27 pm

Apparently, Keep, that’s not unusual practice in NY.

Jay

May 24th, 2011
5:27 pm

Why what? We were referring to the photo of Lee.

pogo

May 24th, 2011
5:27 pm

Jay once again delves into the tired old tactic of progressive fear-mongering telling the elderly they are about to be cut off if Ryans plan goes ahead. Well, since the elderly are well, elderly, their days are numbered which really gives them no incentive at all to give a “hootin hell” about tomorrows children. Since we have now become an entitlement nation and we only care about ourselves, just pass the buck onto the next generation. Who cares what happens to them anyway, right Jay? Do you actually understand what you write?

josef nix

May 24th, 2011
5:27 pm

Imam…
But HOW did I get into it before I even got here? To the best of my knowledge, I haven’t been “gay” since I checked in today…Indian, Southern, and Latino, yes…but it’s just interesting to me that I’d get referred to (and I still can’t determine how or why, evidently to initial post was pulled)…It’s just interesting is all I can say…why not, say Doggone, @@, DDR, Dusty or one of our wimminfolk and beefcake?

too little time

May 24th, 2011
5:28 pm

By 2030, the Congressional Budget Office estimates, the voucher would cover just 32 percent of the cost of health insurance for a new retiree, with the senior citizen forced to cover the rest.

IF insurance companies are required to sell them insurance at all!

There are enough people who have paid into Medicare their whole lives… who had no other choice… only to be threatened that now we have a mere 15 years to come up 68% of the cost of health insurance in our retirement (about $90,000, or $180,000 for a couple).

If you take those who are 46-54 who would be caught in this “voucher time trap” and place them voting Democrat, the Republicans lose. If a small number of those over 55… who will be getting a free ride anyway… also move Democrat, the Republicans lose. Those 45 and under have plenty of time to make up the difference, and and will vote however they would have voted anyway

Adam

May 24th, 2011
5:28 pm

Eh, I’m actually getting tired of hearing about this. I am glad this election is today.

Jay

May 24th, 2011
5:33 pm

Polls close at 9, btw.

AmVet

May 24th, 2011
5:34 pm

Jay, just read your 5:00 about third parties, and you are, of course, correct.

But if the game were not so heavily stacked against the Demopublican challengers, their voices would not be so insignificant. And they might just gain some traction…

stands for decibels

May 24th, 2011
5:34 pm

T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Jane Corwin

And that starts with a “T”, and that rhymes with “P”, and that spells “Pool”.

(In case anyone forgot.)

Adam

May 24th, 2011
5:34 pm

Dave R: IF you win a 3-way race with 42% and your opponents are a Republican and a Tea Party independent (despite their past Democrat affiliation), no such referendum exists.

You mean to say I can’t claim MANDATE!!!! if I win an election? :D

md

May 24th, 2011
5:34 pm

HD,

And to think the guy really wasn’t wacko…….the Big 2 had it out for him and he was justified being paranoid………..

josef nix

May 24th, 2011
5:34 pm

So, Imam, just WHY did you confuse me with jm?

Jay

May 24th, 2011
5:34 pm

and as is always the case, turnout will tell.

josef nix

May 24th, 2011
5:35 pm

jm

What did you say that got Jay confusing me and you…?

jm

May 24th, 2011
5:36 pm

Jay 5:13 – true. But if you look at Q10, of the Davis supporters, only 8% list Medicare at the top versus 38% for the Dem, and 9% for the Republican. Meaning Davis supporters look more like Republicans than Dems, and the Davis peeps are also most concerned about jobs (44%) and the deficit (21%).

I think Davis supporters are confused, but at the end, I suspect Davis will get few votes and voters will toss him overboard in a close race and pick one of the other two, resulting in some kind of different outcome. We’ll see I guess.

md

May 24th, 2011
5:37 pm

Jo…you can go to my 4:40 for a clue……….

josef nix

May 24th, 2011
5:38 pm

md

The 4:40…okay, but what WAS it that was said…? See, I’ve got to know how po, po pitiful I need to be… :-)

jm

May 24th, 2011
5:38 pm

jonix 5:34 – apparently my beefcake comment…. I didn’t even know what a “beefcake” was until Jay used the word. Showing my youth….

Jay

May 24th, 2011
5:39 pm

Amvet, I disagree, for reasons that jm raises.

As this race draws to an end, people gravitate toward one of the two frontrunners and abandon the third candidate. It is part of the process….

Mary Elizabeth

May 24th, 2011
5:41 pm

For those who are not convinced about the fundamental differences between the two political parties in philosophy, listen to the following video clip from “The Ed Show” which features a dialogue between the host and Sen. Bernie Sanders from Vermont regarding the GOP and Medicare.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgQnhhjou5I

getalife

May 24th, 2011
5:41 pm

Keep your pants on :)

The dem will win because of the split of the gop.

jm

May 24th, 2011
5:42 pm

“So, Imam, just WHY did you confuse me with jm?”

I would argue he’s more like Mel Brooks’ Torquemada.

md

May 24th, 2011
5:44 pm

“I didn’t even know what a “beefcake” was until Jay used the word. Showing my youth….”

Are you too young for “stud muffin” too……………

josef nix

May 24th, 2011
5:44 pm

jm

Nobody expects a f*ggot inquisition! :-)

jm

May 24th, 2011
5:46 pm

md 5:44 – no I got that one.

ME 5:41 – yes, the parties are very different (despite AmVets claims, even though he has a fair argument that their both semi-owned by corporations). However, I’m glad we have both of them.

Keep Up the Good Fight!

May 24th, 2011
5:49 pm

Oh no… are we going to have to hear about the 3 weapons of the f inquisition?

Fear
Tucking
And maniacal devotion to Kathy Griffin?

TaxPayer

May 24th, 2011
5:50 pm

Those tea partiers and Republicans must not like each other very much up in NY. Maybe they secretly want the Democrat to win becasue they don’t realy want that Ryan roadmap to succeed and they can’t think of any other way out of it that will not make them look even worse.