Obama almost 2-1 favorite to win re-election

Will President Obama win re-election in 2012?

Karl Rove concedes that his chances are pretty good. “I consider him a favorite, albeit a slight favorite,” Rove told Politico. “Republicans underestimate President Obama at their own peril.”

Mike Huckabee, a potential challenger, isn’t among those making that mistake.

“The people that are sitting around saying, ‘He’s definitely going to be a one-term president. It’s going to be easy to take him out,’ they’re obviously political illiterates – political idiots, let me be blunt,” he said.

That may explain why Huckabee and others haven’t been eager to jump into the race. I suspect they’re waiting to see how the coming budget confrontation plays out between Obama and Washington Republicans before making their final “go/no go” decision

At Intrade, “investors” can “invest” in markets trying to determine the chances that Arctic ice in 2011 will be greater than that in 2007 (43 percent), whether physicists will observe the elusive Higgs Boson particle by 2012 (12 percent) or whether the U.S. will adopt a VAT or sales tax this year (25 percent). The people willing to put their money on the line have made Obama almost a two-to-one favorite to win re-election.

intrade

(BTW, Sarah Palin is given a 7.4 percent chance of winning the GOP nomination, down from a peak of 28 percent; Herman Cain has a paltry 0.3 percent chance. But as the famous political prognosticator Lloyd Christmas would point out, Cain does have a chance.)

-- Jay Bookman

434 comments Add your comment

khc

February 28th, 2011
4:13 pm

when will they prosecute the criminals on wall street and in the real estate industry…..and get some of our money back?

DwayneL

February 28th, 2011
4:14 pm

If the American people are stupid enough to re-elect this failure as president then this country deserves what it gets! I don’t see it happening though…..the blacks have their president and they won’t come out and vote twice in one century!

Boris Badnov

February 28th, 2011
4:33 pm

Why no blog from JB on Ted Kennedy renting a Democrat Den Mothers house on a trip to Chile? Of Course Osomabomba will win a second turn. Look at the miracles he has worked. Full employment, everyone’s 401k maxed, the Chinese are buying all of our products including the Chevy Volt, peace all over the world, and an end to partisan divisiveness in politics. That man is a genius.

John Birch

February 28th, 2011
4:42 pm

His total mishandling of the ME situation will result in $8 a gallon gas and 12% unemployment by the election. He’ll be lucky just to avoid impeachment before then.

JMoore

February 28th, 2011
4:56 pm

Subject: Fw: Budget Cutting

The President ordered the cabinet to cut $100 million from the $3.5
trillion federal budget.

I’m so impressed by this sacrifice that I have decided to do the same
thing with my personal budget. I spend about $4,000 a month on groceries,
household expenses, medicine, utilities, etc, but it’s time to get out the
budget cutting axe, go through my expenses, and cut back.

I’m going to cut my spending at exactly the same ratio, 1/35,000 of my
total budget. After doing the math, it looks like instead of spending $4000
a month; I’m going to have to cut that number by 12 cents. Yes, I’m going
to have to get by with $3,999.88, but that’s what sacrifice is all about.
I’ll just have to do without some things, that are, frankly, luxuries.

(Did the president actually think no one would do the math?)

WOODSTOCK MIKE

February 28th, 2011
4:58 pm

For those of you who are so pleased with Obama’s performance thus far can you please explain to me what accomplishments make you so sure that he will be re-elected??

What makes you believe he is doing a good job? What has he done??

I just can’t think of anything the man has done that makes me want to re-elect him.

It’s so funny to read articles like this showing statistics to back up a re-election. All I read is that because the Republicans don’t have a better candidate at this point Obama will win in default.

What a sad situation.

Figures

February 28th, 2011
6:21 pm

I still defy each and every one of Obama detractors to PROVE where our country would be today had Obama not intervened with Stimulus II.

For all the “God things are dismal” claims, it’s hard to imagine what level of devastation would have visited our country with the stimulus.

Vance

February 28th, 2011
6:48 pm

Obama will win in a landslide. I also believe The Democrats will gain seats in Senate and take over the House again…The republicans are not capable of being visionary. For them, its all about bumper sticker ignorance and apocalyptic fearmongering. The voters gave them a chance and they blew it.

It doesn’t help them that that their candidates are caricatures….Herman Cain (Fred Sanford), Sarah Palin (Ellie Mae Clampett), Mike Huckabee (Gomer Pyle),

Madera

February 28th, 2011
7:04 pm

Uh, Vance, Republican bumper sticker ignorance? Which party relied on catchy, bumper-sticker worthy phrases like “Yes We Can” and “Change We Can Believe In” to get a novice politician whose only executive experience was as a community organizer elected?

How are Cain, Palin, and Huckabee anything like the “caricatures” (I presume you meant characters) of Fred Sanford, Ellie Mae Clampett, or Gomer Pyle?

Dems won’t gain in the Senate. The Senate race is in the GOP’s favor because 2006 was a Democratic wave year that narrowly ousted Republicans and propped up many weak Dems who might have otherwise been defeated.

My Name Changes

February 28th, 2011
7:17 pm

And then there’s a clip from youtube that makes people go huh?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGlfiBnJ-Pg&feature=player_embedded

lynnie gal

February 28th, 2011
7:24 pm

All the republican chest pounding won’t change a thing when Obama wins a second term. No one among the republicans has sense enough to be president, and thus, they will be losers once again.

My Name Changes

February 28th, 2011
7:30 pm

Chris Christie has way more experience than Obama did at this point.

CC 4 P !!

itpdude

February 28th, 2011
7:59 pm

All Obama needs to do is not look crazy.

TruthBe

February 28th, 2011
8:21 pm

Obama has to go! America cannot afford the Obama’s for a second term. The corrupt liberal liars in the media like Jay and Tucker are a large part of the problem because people don’t get the real story about how corrupt and perverted the democrats really are. The Obama adminstration is the worst one yet. At least Jimmy Carter was a Christian and not a Muslim like Obama.

Tom Middleton

February 28th, 2011
8:29 pm

Go for it, Mr. President. Yours is the one moderate voice available to help cure our bipolar nation of its self-destructive tendencies and idiocy. And after that? Why more political moderates from the Democratic Party, of course – the only place moderation can come from anymore!

Thulsa Doom

February 28th, 2011
8:36 pm

The tweedle brothers. I have issued a new proclamation for the 2 most loony liberals out there. Going forward one shalt now be known as tweedledee and the other as tweedledumb

KAMCHAK = TWEEDLEDEE

KEEP UP THE GOOD FIGHT = TWEEDLEDUMB

Titles most befitting these 2 clowns.

independent thinker

February 28th, 2011
8:42 pm

Dear Woodstock Mike: I did not vote for Obama but can name a number of significant accomplishments:
1. Only presidential candidate to promise he would get us out of the quagmire GW Bush and the neocons got us into in Iraq without cutting and running and to actually accomplish that goal (unlike Eisenhower who gave up in Korea, Nixon and Ford who led us to defeat in Vietrnam; Reagan who turned tail and ran in Lebanon letting Hezbollah get away with killing 250 Marines and GW Bush who ler Sadaam stay in power at the end of the Gulf War -all notable Republican failures.)
2. he ended the worst economic crisis since the depression without a total collapse of the banking industry and loss of American auto manufacturing;
3. he passed a health care program to deal with Reagan’s unfunded mandate called EMTALA that was a socialist requirement that paying patients pay for all uninsured and nonpaying patients who show up for treatment causing hospitals acrooss the country to close;
4. More terrorist plots have been stopped under him than under George Bush who ignored warnings repeatedly before 9-11;
5. he did not raise taxes;
6. Obama has a secretary of defense, a secretary of the treasury and a secretary of state who gain respect throughout the world;
7. His opponents all are a bunch of clowns and has beens.

mmm, mmm, mmm, Barack the Liar Obama - BEND OVER, Here comes the CHANGE!

February 28th, 2011
8:57 pm

Yeah, and you probably thought the LOONEY dems would win big in 2010.

You can take it to the bank (one of the tax payer bailed out ones) that NObama will be a ONE term prez.

mmm, mmm, mmm, Barack the Liar Obama - BEND OVER, Here comes the CHANGE!

February 28th, 2011
9:00 pm

independent thinker –Thanks for the chuckles. You forgot:

BROKEN campaign promises and bringing change to Washington
• The national debt rose above $13 trillion dollars, up $1.7 trillion in just one year.

• Rarely does a politician get caught in such a blatant break of a campaign promise as President Obama did with his “I’ll put health care negotiations on C-SPAN” pledge. Obama had promised at least eight times during his run for presidency that he would do so
• Nearly $6 million in stimulus money was paid to two firms run by Mark Penn, Hillary Clinton’s pollster in 2008. Federal records show that $5.97 million from the $787 billion stimulus helped preserve THREE (3) jobs at Burson-Marsteller, the global public-relations/communications firm headed by Penn.
• Obama entered office, vowing he would do what George W. Bush had not: lead the world to a global climate accord.
• White House said “Pass the stimulus bill and unemployment won’t go above 8.2%, it’s now 9.8%”
• Recipients of federal stimulus dollars have overstated the number of jobs created or saved in GA by more than 1,500, according to an AJC analysis of public records
• Quote: “I will promise you this, that if we have not gotten our troops out by the time I am president, it is the first thing I will do. I will get our troops home. We will bring an end to this war….You can take that to the bank!”
• Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac need more than $30 BILLION more taxpayer dollars
• the White House is NOT for sale
• Transparency
• bipartisan support
• close Gitmo
• Timmy the TAX CHEAT Geitner
• ACORN
• find Osama bin Laden
• NO lobbyist on the White House staff
• all bills put on line so the public can read them first
• no tax increase for anyone making less than $250K
• ….What happened to “if you’re happy with your health plan you can keep it?
More than 3 million seniors may have to switch their Medicare prescription plan next year, even if they’re perfectly happy with it. “As a result of this policy, there are going to be fewer plans offered in 2011.”
Back in September President Obama challenged Republicans to “not hold middle-class tax cuts hostage any longer” and derided continued tax cuts for the wealthiest 2 percent of the country. “We are ready, this week,” the president said, “to give tax cuts to every American making $250,000 or less.”
Oil to Highest Price Since 2008

and on, and on, and on……let’s say it again, mmm, mmm, mmm Barack the LIAR Obama

independent thinker

February 28th, 2011
9:20 pm

mmm, mmm, – I got two words for you “mission accomplished”- the biggest farce ever by an American President- how many Americans died since then all for his incompetence?

Lil' Barry Bailout

February 28th, 2011
9:31 pm

2-1 odds, eh? In early 2009, what were the odds the Democrat party was going to get their arses handed to them in 2010?

Keep wishing for your Idiot Messiah. It all comes down to who shows up to vote…Americans or Obama supporters.

independent thinker

February 28th, 2011
11:27 pm

Chris Walker in 2012 and the Republicans have an even chance.

Neu

March 1st, 2011
11:49 am

I get it…if you mention Herman Cain as a possible replacement for President Obama…you can’t be a racist. In this case I’ll through another name out there for you to help your cases….Alan Keyes! HA

Neu

March 1st, 2011
11:50 am

hypocrites

March 1st, 2011
12:14 pm

haha look at all these sour grapes from a pack of treasonous, anti-american idiots. they can’t handle the fact that the president is a success so they have to retreat beneath the familiar conservative security blanket of false realities. pathetic. i can’t wait for 2012 to roll around just to watch the GOP get their butts handed to them for another four years. the whining ignorant tears of a conservatives are so delicious

oldtimer

March 1st, 2011
12:34 pm

Not by this former Georgian. The only way that would work is for a Republican House and Senate!!!

WhoCares

March 1st, 2011
12:47 pm

Seems to me that somewhere, probably about 4 years ago at this time, Hillary Clinton had the odds to become President? Also, that George Bush had no chance for re-election in 2004 and Dukakis was going to beat the first George Bush. Do we see a pattern?

WhoCares

March 1st, 2011
12:49 pm

And btw, I would rather have the GOP controlling the House and Senate in 2012 than them winning the Presidency. The President has NO power unless the Congress is behind him.

TLamar

March 1st, 2011
12:54 pm

I would like to know why people think that Ronald Reagan was such a great President? The trickle down affect only trickled to the weathliest in this country. Everyone keeps mentioning fiscal responsibility for who and what? His son recently stated he was suffering from alzheimers and his wife consulted a psyMy husband and I were considered middle class working American who had savings and thank God paid our house off before the bottom fell out. However, we are both educated hard working people and we didn’t get anything out of the Reagean administration. It did nothing for middleclass Americans . I know most southern Whites can’t phantom the thought that President Obama being re-elected. If you are putting your money on Palin or Newt, then you have lost the election already.

carlaroqs

March 1st, 2011
1:39 pm

@BOW- bless your heart and newt gingrich’s heart if he makes president– and Lord please preserve the USA if that happens. 95% of your post is… whatever it is, but the newt portion is the worse. have you been around for the last 25 years? oh, but yeah, you seem the type to have contributed to the country’s woes for the last 200 years.

chillen

March 2nd, 2011
3:40 pm

A sock puppet could beat Obama in November 2012. We’ve had about enough “change”.

chillen

March 2nd, 2011
3:43 pm

@tlamar. Reagan was a great president who toppled communism and inspired America. He loved America, he defended it voraciously and he was optimistic. Exactly what America needed in a recession.

Contrast that with the community organizer. He clearly does not love America, I’ve never heard him say it,. He wants to change America into his personal socialist eutopia. He does not inspire the right people. He has inspired the entitlement crowd, but they don’t create jobs. obama is the opposite of what we need in a recession.

Glenn

March 2nd, 2011
3:48 pm

Not the biggest Obama lover . That being said just to many loons on the other side . Just seem to try & gain to much popularity by scaring the ignorant . He will get my vote by default alone .

Adam

March 2nd, 2011
10:11 pm

Glenn’s post actually indicates where the mindset of your average voter is who isn’t along party lines. Republicans, you need to get your act together and LISTEN to your constituency to find out what they really want, and then DO IT. Don’t get into Washington and call whatever votes you get a “mandate” to do things that only your base wants.