Will President Obama win re-election in 2012?
Karl Rove concedes that his chances are pretty good. “I consider him a favorite, albeit a slight favorite,” Rove told Politico. “Republicans underestimate President Obama at their own peril.”
Mike Huckabee, a potential challenger, isn’t among those making that mistake.
“The people that are sitting around saying, ‘He’s definitely going to be a one-term president. It’s going to be easy to take him out,’ they’re obviously political illiterates – political idiots, let me be blunt,” he said.
That may explain why Huckabee and others haven’t been eager to jump into the race. I suspect they’re waiting to see how the coming budget confrontation plays out between Obama and Washington Republicans before making their final “go/no go” decision
At Intrade, “investors” can “invest” in markets trying to determine the chances that Arctic ice in 2011 will be greater than that in 2007 (43 percent), whether physicists will observe the elusive Higgs Boson particle by 2012 (12 percent) or whether the U.S. will adopt a VAT or sales tax this year (25 percent). The people willing to put their money on the line have made Obama almost a two-to-one favorite to win re-election.
(BTW, Sarah Palin is given a 7.4 percent chance of winning the GOP nomination, down from a peak of 28 percent; Herman Cain has a paltry 0.3 percent chance. But as the famous political prognosticator Lloyd Christmas would point out, Cain does have a chance.)
-- Jay Bookman