Obama almost 2-1 favorite to win re-election
Will President Obama win re-election in 2012?
Karl Rove concedes that his chances are pretty good. “I consider him a favorite, albeit a slight favorite,” Rove told Politico. “Republicans underestimate President Obama at their own peril.”
Mike Huckabee, a potential challenger, isn’t among those making that mistake.
“The people that are sitting around saying, ‘He’s definitely going to be a one-term president. It’s going to be easy to take him out,’ they’re obviously political illiterates – political idiots, let me be blunt,” he said.
That may explain why Huckabee and others haven’t been eager to jump into the race. I suspect they’re waiting to see how the coming budget confrontation plays out between Obama and Washington Republicans before making their final “go/no go” decision
At Intrade, “investors” can “invest” in markets trying to determine the chances that Arctic ice in 2011 will be greater than that in 2007 (43 percent), whether physicists will observe the elusive Higgs Boson particle by 2012 (12 percent) or whether the U.S. will adopt a VAT or sales tax this year (25 percent). The people willing to put their money on the line have made Obama almost a two-to-one favorite to win re-election.
(BTW, Sarah Palin is given a 7.4 percent chance of winning the GOP nomination, down from a peak of 28 percent; Herman Cain has a paltry 0.3 percent chance. But as the famous political prognosticator Lloyd Christmas would point out, Cain does have a chance.)
-- Jay Bookman
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434 comments Add your comment
Southern Comfort (aka The Man)
February 28th, 2011
8:30 am
Prepare for the onslaught!!!!!!
Maybe you should keep a separate count for how many times Obowo, Idiot Messiah, and Obumbler are posted on this thread. I’m willing to go 5-1 odds that Obama’s name is wrong more than it’s right on this thread.
stands for decibels
February 28th, 2011
8:31 am
Intrade is mostly just for fun this far out, but why not.
stands for decibels
February 28th, 2011
8:32 am
SoCo, I’ve got $500 says you’re wrong.
In the meantime:
Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama
Haywood Jablome
February 28th, 2011
8:34 am
But I was so enjoying the apoplectic absolutes that he is a one-termer.
Right. He’s a on-termer. And global warming is a conspiracy designed by the world’s scientists, Al Gore and environmentalists.
Bill Orvis White
February 28th, 2011
8:37 am
While I love Mr. Rove, I know that he’ll have egg on his face in November 2012. This “president” is by far the most incompetent “leader” in the history of the nation. The majority of the American electorate is learing this fact very fast. With the economy in the tank and continuing to slide, there is no doubt that WE THE PEOPLE will fire the “president.”
The greatest president ever: Lincoln. The greatest president in recent times: Ronald Wilson Reagan. The greatest president who made the best changes: Richard Milhous Nixon. The worst: Barack Hussein Obama. Close to the worst: Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Closer to the worst: President Wilson. Who could replace Barack Hussein Obama? The Honorable Herman Cain. If Herman cannot do it, then who’s next? I would pick the Honorable Speaker Gingrich. If Speaker Gingrich cannot do it, then I would pick the Honorable Governor Mitch Romney. I also heard great things about the Honorable Governor Daniels so he could be a big surprise. But, for now, Herman is the best candidate to take on Lil Hussein.
Amen,
Bill
md
February 28th, 2011
8:41 am
Of all the turmoil around the globe and within the US this is what we get?? Hypothethicals about an election in the distant future……….
Have fun ……….
carlosgvv
February 28th, 2011
8:41 am
I think Obama will be a one-term president because he appears to want to please everyone and winds up pleasing no one. However, the potential Republican candidates, so far, look even worse than him. So, our choices will probably be bad and worse.
Granny Godzilla
February 28th, 2011
8:45 am
Yes we can.
Again.
stands for decibels
February 28th, 2011
8:45 am
By some strange coincidence, I’d happened upon a hotair.com (!) link where commenters were arguing over intrade.com information that Nate Silver had repackaged. In that case, the topic was 2012 Republican Presidential candidates.
The little online fist-fights breaking out among the righties posting there were fairly mesmerizing and occasionally hilarious.
Here’s where you can join them in progress (so to speak—the link’s a few weeks old now)
http://hotair.com/archives/2011/02/05/the-galaxy-of-2012-gop-stars/comment-page-2/#comments
@@
February 28th, 2011
8:46 am
Huckabee said …they’re obviously political illiterates – political idiots… THAT!!??!!
I’ll agree with Rove. Huckabee’s never been a favorite of mine. An Obama win won’t be a problem as long as there are checks and balances. A GOP majority in the house will do just fine.
I watched a bit of Huckabee last night. He had a black minister and a Latino fella. Seems they’re a bit put out with Obama’s recent “stand” (if you can call it that) on DOMA. 82% of blacks want marriage defined in traditional terms (one man/one woman). Latinos favor it by 65%. Whites? 55%.
I was a bit surprised.
AmVet
February 28th, 2011
8:46 am
Re, Mr. Cain, if I recall correctly, that Godawful Pizza wasn’t even edible.
SoCo, I’ll take even odds on the prez being labeled socialist before this thread is though.
And great sarcasm, Bill. (I’m surprised Hoover, Harding and Flub-a-Dubya weren’t at the top of your list!)
And as carlos notes, almost overnight, the parties have switched roles. Now it is the cons who trot out endless laughable, unelectable opponents, while the door to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is wide open…
AmVet
February 28th, 2011
8:47 am
“…because he appears to want to please everyone…”
But I do think this sentiment is absolutely incorrect…
USinUK
February 28th, 2011
8:52 am
md – ever heard of Blogger? me, I prefer WordPress
either way, they’re both ready when you are
USinUK
February 28th, 2011
8:53 am
“he appears to want to please everyone and winds up pleasing no one”
what do you recommend? someone who only tries to please his base?
Normal
February 28th, 2011
8:53 am
BOW,
I don’t care what you think…phbbt
stands for decibels
February 28th, 2011
8:54 am
I was a bit surprised.
why? GOPers have been trying to peel of black and Hispanic voters by using this as a wedge issue for years now. Did it never occur to you why they would aim to do that?
JohnnyReb
February 28th, 2011
8:54 am
Almost any Republican with enough guts to call-out Obama on his record would win – IF – the electorate would listen. Therein lies the issue; the electorate does not listen. “Jay Walking” is a prime example of why there should be a test to pass before voting. Knowing that won’t ever happen, we are left with a process where the biggest bull $hiter gets the votes, and thus far Obama outpaces them all.
godless heathen
February 28th, 2011
8:55 am
Obama, like any incumbent, has many advantages in the election. The economy will continue to improve despite Obama’s best efforts to derail it. Health care reform measures, for the most part, convieniently don’t take effect until after the election. I sure wouldn’t bet against him being re-elected.
stands for decibels
February 28th, 2011
9:02 am
“Jay Walking” is a prime example of why there should be a test to pass before voting.
I’m not sure what this means.
I do hope, however, that you’re aware of the history of “literacy tests” applied in the past to disenfranchise voters. If you ever tried to impose any such thing today, no matter how neutral and unbiased you’d make the test, you’d never survive the court challenges.
Normal
February 28th, 2011
9:03 am
To me this is a classic case of the lesser evils. A vote for President Obama is definitely a vote for the lesser evil.
Bill Orvis White
February 28th, 2011
9:04 am
@AmVet — The Honorable President George Walker Bush will be appreciated in a few years when his library is built. People will attend the library in droves as they learn about the tough choices he had to make as commander-in-chief. No one has done more for the survival of Western civilization thatn GW Bush. He is a man of honor, character, decency, dignity and respect while Hussein Obama is the total opposite. Again, even the Libyan dictator knows that Hussein Obama is a Kenyan muslim anti-colonialist. If anyone wants to argue about where Hussein Obama was born, just ask, “Where’s the true longform birth certificate? What does Hussein Obama have to hide?” I’m totally serious. Some of you out there are laughing, but this is a matter of national security and it seems to me that so many of you have your heads in the sand!
Oh, I forgot to add Jimmah Carter in my list of the worst presidents. Who can ever forget that embarrassment — my bad. Most of our problems today can be traced back to Jimmah and then a few years later, Bubba. Jimmah created most of the economic mess for us while Bubbah Clinton let the jihadists run wild while his pants were down around his ankles.
Amen,
Bill
Normal
February 28th, 2011
9:04 am
But, I might consider Ron Paul…
carlosgvv
February 28th, 2011
9:05 am
USinUK
That is actually a quote from President Harry Truman about a politician of his day. Do you think you know more about politics than him?
Ragnar Danneskjöld
February 28th, 2011
9:08 am
Good morning all. Defeating a previously elected president is a rarity. Since 1888 it has happened three times (1912, 1980, 1992) and all three times there was a significant third-party candidate. Americans hate to admit that they made a big mistake. So unless we have high unemployment (ala 1992) or seemingly uncontrollable inflation (ala 1980), Chauncey could well be re-elected.
The most significant event that could defeat him would be if the Supreme Court ruled Obamacare “constitutional” – I suspect that the population, inflamed, would rise up to throw him out.
StJ
February 28th, 2011
9:09 am
“So, our choices will probably be bad and worse.”
It’s been that way for most of the elections in my lifetime. It’s just downhill from here.
Normal
February 28th, 2011
9:10 am
Oh yeah, President Bush’s Library. Titles like “See Dick Run”, “How to Start a War without Really Trying”, “How to Vacation Nearly Half of Your Terms and Get Away With It”, and “Yes I Screwed The Economy, So What”.
BOW WOW,
Just PHBBBTT!
@@
February 28th, 2011
9:11 am
John Stossel’s “Battle for the Future” is another series worth watching. This is Part 2 of a 6 part series.
If interested, you can catch the other parts by going to the right-hand margins.
John Stossel, Libertarian.
If you don’t take the time to watch, you either CAN’T or DON’T want to engage in the battle. You prefer surrender.
Just my opinion.
Southern Comfort (aka The Man)
February 28th, 2011
9:11 am
I was a bit surprised.
I’m not. At least half of the Black community shares values consistent with the conservative part of America. What keeps Blacks from aligning themselves with the GOP is the fringe element that appears to dictate what goes on for the GOP. A moderate, conservative group would capture a good percentage of the Black vote with no problem.
“Jay Walking” is a prime example of why there should be a test to pass before voting.
Our country does not have a stellar record when it comes to testing for voting privileges. I wouldn’t want to see that enacted again. Keep in mind, the White population will not remain a majority, and what you do to curtail minority rights now could come back to bite you in the ass down the road.
Gotta run.. check back later, and dB.. QUIT STACKING THE DECK AGAINST ME!!!!!!
that’s cheatin’
Deep Throat
February 28th, 2011
9:17 am
Rag, we do have high unemployment, I say Oblamer (1) will go in 2012.
Del
February 28th, 2011
9:21 am
I think it would be a real stretch to anoint Obama a 2 to 1 favorite, given the mid-term election results, the Republican governor pick up in swing states, the Independent shift and the Democrats lost ground in purple states. I think Rove calls it right when he says that Obama is a slight favorite. He’s the incumbent and that would make him a slight favorite but by no means a shoe in. It will really depend on who gets the Republican nomination.
kayaker 71
February 28th, 2011
9:24 am
If the American electorate is stupid enough to elect this clown for a second term, then they deserve what they get. Let’s just hope that we keep a Repub Congress to keep him in check fiscally and perhaps a Repub Senate as a bonus. Then he will be properly neutered for the next four years. We have seen what happens with a Demo Congress and Bozo….. financial disaster. Also nice article about that idiot Tamera Cotman in the Atlanta school system. Seems like a typical Bozo voter. With people like this running things, how can we lose?
AmVet
February 28th, 2011
9:25 am
Again thanks for the sarcasm, Bill. (Honorable and Bush in the same sentence? That’s rich.)
I’m sure your grandkids are just gonna love his legacy. Borrow, borrow, borrow and spend, spend, spend. And then spend some more. And there’s that itsy bitsy little issue of how that dolt and his cast of cowards got 5,000+ GI’s KIA’d needlessly.
His first 100 days alone were a disgraceful debacle, and it only got MUCH, MUCH worse after that.
Arguably the worst in modern history, surpassing even Reagan’s thuggery and cluelessness, Nixon’s corruption and Carter’s ineffectiveness.
If that consummate failure, ever climbs out of the bottom 10 US Presidents, it will be a miracle.
And the GOP hasn’t had a competent prez since Ike.
Enjoy the education. (As if you’ll read any of it.)
http://www.publicintegrity.org/investigations/broken_government/articles/full_list/
USinUK
February 28th, 2011
9:29 am
“That is actually a quote from President Harry Truman about a politician of his day. Do you think you know more about politics than him?”
grammatically speaking, that should be “than he’?
and, yes, despite the fact that Obama has done things that have pi$$ed me off, he is the President of the ENTIRE country, not just of the people who voted for him. I expect him – and every politician – to act accordingly.
we’ve had enough polarizing politicians who vote with only their base in mind.
kayaker 71
February 28th, 2011
9:29 am
AmVet,
As long as we are trading president barbs, I would venture that the Demos haven’t had a competent president since Truman.
@@
February 28th, 2011
9:30 am
SoCo:
At least half of the Black community shares values consistent with the conservative part of America.
I agree with ^^^ that. This Pew poll was one of the more interesting I’ve seen.
I’m off to the market.
USinUK
February 28th, 2011
9:30 am
“Let’s just hope that we keep a Repub Congress to keep him in check fiscally ”
… and the hits just keep on comin …
you people who have absolutely NO memory of 2001-2006 crack me the eff up.
TnGelding
February 28th, 2011
9:32 am
I’d have to take that 2/1. I’m hoping he won’t run. He just doesn’t have the desire to boldly lead.
Midori
February 28th, 2011
9:33 am
Is Bill Orvis White a parody, like Redneck Convert?
That guy can’t be serious…..
USinUK
February 28th, 2011
9:34 am
midori – BOW : Redneck Convert as Sarah Palin: Margaret Thatcher (evil b that she was)
The Leg Lamp is a "major award".....
February 28th, 2011
9:36 am
The next POTUS election is still over 20 months away and Jay headlines an article “Obama almost 2-1 favorite to win re-election”
Oh brother! And if a frog had wings. No contender has stepped forward, but we’re touting the winner. Seems I remember McCain being in the lead until the stock market collapse. Had it been delayed by a few months McCain may have actually been elected, but that’s a “whole ‘nother story”.
Will I be shocked if Obama wins a 2nd term? No. But what a waste of time giving handicaps on the race.
AmVet
February 28th, 2011
9:37 am
Though no Washington, Jefferson or Lincoln, at least the Dems had Clinton.
Who towers over the clowns that preceded and followed him.
And unlike the Hero of the Texas Air National Guard, he actually knew how to *effectively* prosecute a military campaign without creating a booming business for American undertakers and grave diggers…
kayaker 71
February 28th, 2011
9:37 am
US in UK,
Things have changed. And to emphasize the point, perhaps a quote from across the pond would be more appropriate.
“I contend that a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself by the handle”.
Winston Churchill
TnGelding
February 28th, 2011
9:38 am
Just a reminder that 09/11 happened on Bush’s watch. He didn’t want to be bothered by swarming flies. When Clnton was swatting them the conservatives accused him of diversion.
TnGelding
February 28th, 2011
9:40 am
Nobody is trying to tax themselves into prosperity, but it would be nice if we paid the bills.
USinUK
February 28th, 2011
9:40 am
kayaker – for the party of “fiscal responsbility”, you guys sure do like to spend beyond your income – then whine about “the children” … Dems at least like to pay for what we spend
kayaker 71
February 28th, 2011
9:41 am
“Towers over the clowns that preceded and followed him”…..
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
USinUK
February 28th, 2011
9:41 am
TnG – 9:38 – TESTIFY!
Donovan
February 28th, 2011
9:42 am
Oh, please. Apparently, Bookman just got back from a weekend statregy session with Tucker on the same topic or he is light on his material on what to write for Monday. Anyway, when any rational person looks back upon the accomplishments of this inept president the track record is self-explanatory. Hmmm…let’s see. Unemployment still at a historic high, a national buget at a historic high, national debt at a historic high, a stimulus bill that was a non performing scam, a mid term election that was historic in Democrat defeat, government expansion to historic levels, government control of the private sector, out of control Democrat spending that has bankrupted this country, and a failed president that is out of his league. To those who say, “yes we can”, the duped American people are now saying, “no you won’t”.
AmVet
February 28th, 2011
9:43 am
I’m sure the chickenhawks in the Neo-Con Party are still distraught, that agianst their cowardly wishes, Clinton brought an end to that slaughterfest in Europe.
Just one more in an endless list of Republican disgraces…
kayaker 71
February 28th, 2011
9:44 am
US in UK,
“At least the dems like to pay for what we spend”…… Yeah, with other people’s money, lately, mostly coming from China, about 5T of which did not exist until Bozo and his gang took over. How soon you forget.