Gingrich won’t win nomination; he won’t even win in Georgia
In little more than a year — Feb. 7, 2012, to be exact — Republican voters in Georgia will go to the polls to cast ballots in a GOP presidential primary.
As Jim Galloway confirmed last week, the name of Newt Gingrich will probably be on the ballot. The former speaker is reportedly telling Georgia Republican leaders that he intends to mount a national campaign out of Atlanta, presumably to try to shed himself of the taint of Washington.
“My offices are here. My grandchildren are here. I’m here regularly,” Gingrich said in a press conference Thursday in Atlanta. “I helped create the modern Republican Party in Georgia starting in 1960. I have a certain fondness for being back in Atlanta.”
Gingrich did make his name here, but he then moved on to pastures that he perceived to be greener, as the man is wont to do. And while he might see himself as a co-founder of the modern Georgia Republican Party, that’s not the story you hear from Republicans themselves, many of whom saw Gingrich as far more concerned with pursuing his own national ambitions than with helping to build a party back home. (Shocking, I know).
So here’s a prediction: Assuming that Gingrich is still in the race come Feb. 7, after the Iowa caucuses and primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, he will not win the Georgia primary. In fact, I’d be surprised if he even managed a close second.
Some of that depends on who decides to enter the race and who doesn’t. In a Magellan poll taken last June, 29.8 percent of Georgia Republicans said they would vote for Gingrich in a primary, making him the nominal frontrunner. (He was followed by Mike Huckabee (24.5 percent), Mitt Romney (14.4 percent) and Sarah Palin (12 percent).
Not surprisingly, Gingrich did best among Republicans 55 and older, who are more likely to link him to Georgia. (Palin, by the way, got only 3.4 percent of Georgia Republicans between 18 and 34). But given the favorite-son status that Gingrich wants to claim here, you have to look at that 30 percent figure as closer to his ceiling than his floor.
As those numbers indicate, he has no great reservoirs of fondness, gratitude or state pride to draw upon here, and I doubt that many Georgia Republican leaders will be willing to cast their lot with him at the risk of alienating candidates perceived to be much more viable nationally. A lot of factors are at play in the endorsement game, but it usually comes down to wanting to side with a winner.
– Jay Bookman
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354 comments Add your comment
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
10:29 am
“an immoral Clinton ” … “I will take Newt any day”
um. are you completely ignorant of Gingrich’s past?
DawgDad
January 24th, 2011
10:30 am
“The last Rep in office was Gerald Ford who was honest and down to earth.”
He was a horrible presidential candidate, alienating would-be GOP voters in masses. Perception was he represented GOP insiders and not the people (I mean the “silent majority” types, which were the base of the GOP back then). He allowed Carter to play the religion card and siphon off masses of conservative Christian voters. He lost military votes to Carter who promised a nominal (3%) pay increase over nothing from Ford. He represented everything WRONG with the GOP at the time; I wouldn’t have voted for him for Dog Catcher.
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
10:30 am
Normal – still here, rockin’ on lots of levels!
godless heathen
January 24th, 2011
10:31 am
Oberman didn’t get canned like Cutler didn’t get benched yesterday.
barking frog
January 24th, 2011
10:31 am
I believe a lot of Sarah Palin’s popularity can be
attributed to her resemblance to Tina Fey.
larry
January 24th, 2011
10:32 am
Sounds like an obsession.
I wish the press would quit obsessing over her. I get tired of hearing about her. I change the channel when a story comes up about her. Im not scared of her because she isnt in public office. I just dont understand why someone with so little substance gets so much press. She is a quitter and in my book quitters dont win.
I just hope half the press takes the ” Palin free month” seriously.
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
10:32 am
barking – 10:31 – I thought it was because she is a walking punchline.
Crenshaw8
January 24th, 2011
10:33 am
High school mode beats kindergarten mode where snacks & naps are the norm.
barking frog
January 24th, 2011
10:33 am
Gerald Ford, a man who truly stumbled into and out
of the White House.
Adam
January 24th, 2011
10:34 am
Donovan: It would seem that whenever there is a real threat to the cloak of conservatism the conservatives attack the messenger with pit bull tenacity. It’s the cheap way and typical way of Republican mud slinging.
Fixed your typos
Steve
January 24th, 2011
10:35 am
You all can calm down. Obama isn’t going anywhere in 2012. He has the highest approval rating of any politician, a majority of Americans like him and the job he is doing.
After 2 years of the Republican house stumbling in the dark Americans will see republicans for the weasels they are. Only out to protect the rich folks.
Joel Edge
January 24th, 2011
10:35 am
Del@10:29
Sorry, I brought Palin’s name up. Just as an example of what I thought as non-nominees for the Republicans. I has brought out the usual PDS though.
Adam
January 24th, 2011
10:36 am
Donovan: BTW, you have no business talking about far left or radical left, as your entire post shows just how far to the right you are. Newt and Rush telling the truth? You obviously don’t knwo the meaning of the word “truth.”
stands for decibels
January 24th, 2011
10:36 am
Feb 1-28 is Palin free month, join the movement.
Larry, I had not seen that Dana Milbank piece, and that’s not a such a bad idea. Anyway, since it’s still January, there’s something I’ve never thought to ask center-to-left folks in here about Sarah Palin, so why not.
Ever play out the hypothetical of Gov. Palin deciding to serve out her term to burnish her bona fides, just holding the occasional fund-raiser for her legal defense fund (and, presumably, emerging from whatever case(s) actually were brought against her without too much of a stink)?
She’d have wrapped up her term by now. I think if this had happened, we’d probably speak of her with some deference, writing off some of the 2008 campaign rhetoric as what a loyal soldier does when called upon to fight. We’d have largely forgotten the family drama angle.
I think we would look at the Governor as a pretty serious challenger to Obama, so long as she assembled a competent team—which, one assumes, wouldn’t be hard for her to do, because who wouldn’t want to pitch in and help the GOP’s brightest new star?
I know, easy for me to say now, but I can’t help wondering.
barking frog
January 24th, 2011
10:37 am
USinUK, ‘Punchline Walking’ or ‘Punchline Talking’ the
stuff movies are made of…
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
10:38 am
barking – 10:33 – I’m of an age where I barely remember Ford (was in early elementary school when he was in office). I do remember SNL and Chevy Chase spoofing his clumsiness … but was he really a klutz in real life? for some reason, I thought there was only 1 incident involving AF1 …
Adam
January 24th, 2011
10:38 am
Joel: Sorry, I brought Palin’s name up. Just as an example of what I thought as non-nominees for the Republicans
It’s a fair point. Gingrich and Palin may not have exactly equal chance of not being nominated, but they don’t and cannot have the numbers needed to be serious contenders.
barking frog
January 24th, 2011
10:38 am
Our Presidents and candidates..Now wonder the world
holds us in aww…..
Normal
January 24th, 2011
10:39 am
Here’s a couple of more funnies since we are bashin’ republicans…
http://news.icanhascheezburger.com/2011/01/23/political-pictures-george-w-bush-windbreaker/
…and what if Cheney got a GIRL’S heart…
http://news.icanhascheezburger.com/2011/01/21/political-pictures-dick-cheney-marie-antoinette-freak-flag/
DawgDad
January 24th, 2011
10:39 am
If you people and supposed psychology experts think there are any significant number of GOP VOTERS sitting out here having a “high school mode” crush over Sarah Palin’s looks, well, maybe THAT’S part of the reason why the GOP “owns” Georgia politics right now. Go on believing, suckers.
barking frog
January 24th, 2011
10:40 am
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
10:38 am
——————————————
Yes he was, an ex football player with bad knees, quite
a stumbler…
Common Sense isn't very Common
January 24th, 2011
10:41 am
AmVet@9:52 am
Who, with an IQ over about 80, is gonna take that puerile nonsense and his dripping hypocrisy seriously?
—————–
That makes him a viable regressive candidate
RB from Gwinnett
January 24th, 2011
10:41 am
Getting the “Newt is dumb” post out early this week Jay?
What a hyper partisan pathetic hack you are. Geez.
Hillbilly Deluxe
January 24th, 2011
10:42 am
pretty telling that here in his “home state,”
Newt’s home state is Pennsylvania, not Georgia. He ain’t one of us.
Adam
January 24th, 2011
10:42 am
DawgDad: There’s no significant number in either the Democrat or Republican parties who are in “high school mode.” You also seem to be forgetting the independents. When they voted Obama in, were they in high school mode too? Denying that people in general can have this problem makes you bad at psychology. NOT denying it doesn’t make you an expert, just a little bit smarter.
barking frog
January 24th, 2011
10:43 am
USinUK, a stumbler but quite the trader, traded a
pardon for the Presidency…..
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
10:44 am
“Newt’s home state is Pennsylvania, not Georgia. He ain’t one of us.”
if a cat gave birth in an oven, you wouldn’t call them biscuits.
Curious Observer
January 24th, 2011
10:45 am
After 2 years of the Republican house stumbling in the dark Americans will see republicans for the weasels they are. Only out to protect the rich folks.
And after watching the Republicans start snarling at Social Security and Medicare following their stealth candidacy (even the House Crier now says he supports Ryan in wanting to cut them), a lot of people, especially the elderly, are going to be fed up with the Republicans. Of course, a lot of the conservatives on this blog won’t be happy until they get a lily-white, retrogressive President who will want to whack anything that favors Those People. It’s the fact of Obama’s skin pigment that renders him “an idiot” and “a Socialist.”
Southern Comfort
January 24th, 2011
10:45 am
If you people and supposed psychology experts think there are any significant number of GOP VOTERS sitting out here having a “high school mode” crush over Sarah Palin’s looks, well, maybe THAT’S part of the reason why the GOP “owns” Georgia politics right now. Go on believing, suckers.
I guess all those buttons from the 2008 GOP Convention got destroyed then.
http://blog.buzzflash.com/articles/files/hottest%20vp%20coolest%20state%20button.jpg
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
10:45 am
barking – oy. you’ve just entered the intersection of Ford and Fonda – I know people who won’t forgive either of them for their decisions
Mr. Right
January 24th, 2011
10:46 am
Palin would be a better president than what we have but I am not likely to vote for her but it would tickle my goat to see the Libs hyperventilate! Newt? Not likely.
Southern Comfort
January 24th, 2011
10:46 am
if a cat gave birth in an oven, you wouldn’t call them biscuits.
http://www.shootbank.net/photos/1756.medium.jpg
Adam
January 24th, 2011
10:48 am
Palin would be a better president than what we have
Oh do tell how you come to that particular conclusion….
Doggone/GA
January 24th, 2011
10:50 am
“Oh do tell how you come to that particular conclusion”
Her wink is cuter than Obama’s?
Mr. Right
January 24th, 2011
10:51 am
Steve
January 24th, 2011
10:35 am
Oh Booho Booho those big bad Republicans!
philly
January 24th, 2011
10:51 am
Huckabee is a gifted communicator who would be envied by even Ronald Reagan himself. I’m thrilled that a man with such character and vision is considering seeking the presidency. America needs a quality man like Mike Huckabee. He will repeat his Georgia victory.
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
10:52 am
Doggone – she has a better colorist
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
10:52 am
Philly – yep. nothing like a man who thinks the constitution should be aligned with the bible. give us more of that.
Hillbilly Deluxe
January 24th, 2011
10:53 am
if a cat gave birth in an oven, you wouldn’t call them biscuits.
And if they went to live in the oven, they still wouldn’t be biscuits. They’d just be dead cats.
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
10:54 am
HD – you got it!
Granny Godzilla
January 24th, 2011
10:54 am
Speaking of entertainment – how about that Bob Barr and Poppa Doc deal?
Doggone/GA
January 24th, 2011
10:55 am
“she has a better colorist”
Yeah, that too!
Ragnar Danneskjöld
January 24th, 2011
10:55 am
I’d vote for Gingrich. Unlike Chauncey, he has proven that he can balance a Federal budget.
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
10:56 am
“”I have opponents in this race who do not want to change the Constitution,” Huckabee told a Michigan audience on Monday. “But I believe it’s a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living god. And that’s what we need to do — to amend the Constitution so it’s in God’s standards rather than try to change God’s standards so it lines up with some contemporary view.”"
http://www.rawstory.com/news/2007/Huckabee_Amend_Constitution_to_meet_Gods_0115.html
more, please! we need more!!!
Doggone/GA
January 24th, 2011
10:56 am
“Poppa Doc deal”
Baby doc. Pappa Doc is dead.
barking frog
January 24th, 2011
10:57 am
USinUK, Count me in. I don’t like treason in any form. Also
the Johnson Kennedy assassination connection. Lived too
long ,saw too much, up close.
USMC dawg
January 24th, 2011
10:57 am
Here we go with the LAWSUITS, folks!
It is all about the money and “re-distribution of wealth”!
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jLQy3ze-D7N4ZQzyDjvLA8ChIEhQ?docId=CNG.0974f2ca1c91adea909b6017dc4d554e.471
Granny Godzilla
January 24th, 2011
10:58 am
Thanks Goggone…..for the correction.
So now, What’s up Doc?
larry
January 24th, 2011
10:59 am
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
10:56 am
Didnt he lose the Michigan primary after that and then the lead ?
Southern Comfort
January 24th, 2011
11:00 am
USinner @ 10:56
All I can muster is
Adam
January 24th, 2011
11:00 am
USMC: Sadly I would not put it past our legal system to allow this kind of thing. See the Stella Awards and the woman who is suing the mall for not paying attention and falling into a fountain for more details as to how stupid people get away with stupid lawsuits.
Granny Godzilla
January 24th, 2011
11:01 am
USMC Dawg
Glad you feel that way.
I can offer you a great deal on a couple of acres with high voltage line hovering over them and a dioxin tainted stream running through it.
A great place to raise a family.
Adam
January 24th, 2011
11:02 am
I’m off to work. Hope everyone gets out of “high school mode” and back to reality. ROFL
Mr. Right
January 24th, 2011
11:02 am
It’s the fact of Obama’s skin pigment that renders him “an idiot” and “a Socialist.”
If it isn’t class warfare it’s got to be racism! Them bad Republicans!
Doggone/GA
January 24th, 2011
11:02 am
“So now, What’s up Doc?”
Apparently he’s claiming he wants to return the money he stole from the Haitians to rebuild the country (not his words, mine!)
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
11:02 am
larry – well, he never really had the lead – at best, he only placed 2nd in a couple of primaries –
the quote that cost him was the “Christian nation” gaffe
stands for decibels
January 24th, 2011
11:02 am
And if they went to live in the oven, they still wouldn’t be biscuits. They’d just be dead cats.
Not if you drilled air holes, fed ‘em and changed the litter tray occasionally.
Joel Edge
January 24th, 2011
11:03 am
USMC dawg@10:57
“re-distribution of wealth”!
Straight into the lawyers pockets.
Granny Godzilla
January 24th, 2011
11:05 am
“re-distribution of wealth” while second generation of American kids suffer the nuerological consequences…..
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
11:06 am
Granny G – they should pull themselves up by their bootstraps! lazy kids
Southern Comfort
January 24th, 2011
11:06 am
Re-distribution of wealth…
Capitalism can be described as a re-distribution of wealth. Maybe I should put that on a bumper sticker.
Granny Godzilla
January 24th, 2011
11:07 am
USinUK
Even if they aren’t born with hands or feet.
So very sad.
@@
January 24th, 2011
11:07 am
The divide within the GOP in Washington centers around “deep cuts” in spending and “even deeper cuts” in spending.
Getting down to business while Obama repeats his pledge of 2008?
Don’t see how that’s gonna work in his favor. The American people have spoken.
Reduce the spending!!!!!!
Border Patrol
January 24th, 2011
11:07 am
With news like this coming out, it won’t matter who wins the Republican nomination:
HHS gave a waiver to Local 25 SEIU in Chicago with 31,000 enrollees on Oct. 1, 2010; to Local 1199 SEIU Greater New York Benefit Fund with 4,544 enrollees on Oct. 10, 2010; and to the SEIU Local 1 Cleveland Welfare Fund with 520 enrollees on Nov. 15, 2010.
So far, the Obama administration has issued waivers to 222 entities, including businesses, unions and charitable organizations. Of that total, 45 were labor organizations.
A total of 1,507,418 enrollees are now included in the waivers. More than one-third — 512,315 – of the enrollees affected were insured by union health plans.
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/seiu-locals-including-chicago-chapter-wa
++++++
Do you get it yet? Over 1.5 million have already been covered by an exemption for Obamacare.
We are all equal. Some are just more equal than others.
carlosgvv
January 24th, 2011
11:08 am
Political ambition does strange things to people. In every presidential election, those who don’t have a chance spend huge sums running for this office. Gingrich will be no exception.
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
11:10 am
Granny G – show me where in the constitution there is a RIGHT to hands and feet!!!
show me!!!
barking frog
January 24th, 2011
11:11 am
Some are just more equal than others.
—————————————–
American socialism in a nutshell.
John Birch
January 24th, 2011
11:11 am
I actually agree with Jay today, Newt can’t win. I like Romney, but the mormon thing turns off a lot of voters, kind of like being Catholic hurt Kennedy.
Southern Comfort
January 24th, 2011
11:11 am
With news like this coming out, it won’t matter who wins the Republican nomination
And if you were on the border instead of blogging, maybe our borders wouldn’t be so broken. Hee hee hee… (couldn’t resist that one.)
Border Patrol
January 24th, 2011
11:12 am
And if we were allowed to enforce the law rather than act as humanitarian aid dispensers, the borders would not be so broken either.
stands for decibels
January 24th, 2011
11:13 am
they should pull themselves up by their bootstraps! lazy kids
With the @b0rti0n chatter at the tail end of the previous comments thread, I was considering a bit about how shiftless no-good zygotes should show some Personal Responsibility and realize that it’s a poor choice to decide to implant themselves on a uterine wall if their host + sperm donor don’t have the wherewithal to raise ‘em right.
Don’t really have time to massage it into a proper essay though. So consider that one a freebie.
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
11:13 am
“the mormon thing turns off a lot of voters”
people were just afraid he’d be show up on their doorstep, wearing a short-sleeved white shirt and tie, asking them if they’ve heard the Good News.
barking frog
January 24th, 2011
11:13 am
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
11:10 am
show me where in the constitution there is a RIGHT to hands and feet!!!
—————————————————
Look on the left side shoulder high and at the bottom.
Joel Edge
January 24th, 2011
11:13 am
So…I guess this would be the opening of the third (?) front in the environmental war. Can’t get it through congress. Getting it through EPA regulation seems to be slowing down. The next option: we’ll sue ya.
For making a legal product, I guess. Making a car, generating electricity, etc.
Southern Comfort
January 24th, 2011
11:14 am
You do enforce the law. What sector do you patrol?
Normal
January 24th, 2011
11:15 am
What a hyper partisan pathetic hack you are. Geez.
I think RB lives for that phrase…
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
11:15 am
dB – 11:13 – well said! those blastocytes are just starting their sponging off government early!
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
11:15 am
Normal – 11:15 – all I can say is that it takes one to know one
Matti
January 24th, 2011
11:16 am
What a sad day it is and a sad week it’s been for law enforcement.
God bless the men and women who put on uniforms every day and risk their lives to come between us and the scum of the planet — for long hours, low pay, and little appreciation. We are annoyed when you pull us over, and wish you’d mind your own business most of the time, but the fact is, we need you and you save our lives, most of the time without us even knowing about it. Thank you.
Normal
January 24th, 2011
11:16 am
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
10:56 am
Mullah Huckabee?
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
11:17 am
barking – if the Founding Fathers thought we should all have hands and feet, they would have SAID it.
just ask Scalia! he’ll tell you!!!
EJ Moosa
January 24th, 2011
11:17 am
@Southern Comfort,
Yes you can define capitalism as a redistribution of wealth.
The difference is that this redistribution is earned, not granted.
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
11:17 am
Normal – 11:16 – Taliban-tastic!
Southern Comfort
January 24th, 2011
11:18 am
those blastocytes are just starting their sponging off government early!
Be careful with terminology like that. Somebody might think you’re talking about Middle East fetuses.
Scout
January 24th, 2011
11:19 am
Jay:
Shouldn’t you be analyzing anyone who might be taking on Obama for the next nomination?
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
11:19 am
“The difference is that this redistribution is earned, not granted.”
and the sad thing is, you probably believe that.
I’m sure the top 1% have EARNED their increases in wealth over the last 40 years as the middle class has EARNED the right to tread water.
Southern Comfort
January 24th, 2011
11:19 am
The difference is that this redistribution is earned, not granted.
Google Southern Company and redress that statement. It is not all “earned” in capitalism.
John Birch
January 24th, 2011
11:20 am
USINUK – He’s no where near as fervently religious as the Huck and probably wouldn’t be talking about talking with god like W did. Still, Muslims and atheists have no chance, a mormon might make it, but it’s uphill.
Southern Comfort
January 24th, 2011
11:22 am
“redress” Geez, my mind is running 250mph. Meant to say readdress.
@@
January 24th, 2011
11:23 am
I see jay’s left-wingers have, once again, gone into their cutesy mode. No reason to hang around any longer.
Enjoy.
Mr. Right
January 24th, 2011
11:23 am
Matti
January 24th, 2011
11:16 am
Right on!
EJ Moosa
January 24th, 2011
11:23 am
@USinUK,
No the sad thing is that you think it was not earned. You believe that the middle class has only treaded water. Yet if you compare the middle class today to the one of 40 years ago, the wealth and luxury that they live in is hands down better today.
So you offer no evidence that their wealth was not earned, or that their lifestyle choices were not a part of their success,
It’s so much easier to continue to deny the truth. Because it requires no effort on your behalf.
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
11:23 am
JB – actually, I think the little 18-year-old mormon kids are sweet – they’re very nice, very polite. there’s a HUGE mormon population in and around DC because of the Tabernacle in Bethesda, so I learned a lot about the people and the religiou when I lived there …
I think Mittens’s bigger problem is his flapping in the breeze rather than his religion … in the 2008 race, he was all over the map
Granny Godzilla
January 24th, 2011
11:25 am
Border Patrol
Please compare and contrast the terms excemption and waiver.
Then google which was granted.
barking frog
January 24th, 2011
11:26 am
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
11:17 am
—————————————–
You are correct, but then you don’t really have the
protected right to say that..the man may have a point..
Mr. Right
January 24th, 2011
11:26 am
I’m sure the top 1% have EARNED their increases in wealth over the last 40 years as the middle class has EARNED the right to tread water.
And what is your solution?
Jay
January 24th, 2011
11:26 am
Well, let’s see:
The health insurance waivers in question are good only until 2014, when the full bill takes effect.
The waivers are intended to let those folks keep the coverage that they already have, just as the bill promised.
The bill was explicitly written to allow such waivers, because it was recognized they would be needed during the transition.
It’s also comical how unions are trotted out front and center to try to gin up hatred against the waivers themselves. If one third of the waivers went to unions, then two-thirds went to — gasp!!! — businesses! Ohmigosh, the Kenyan Marxist granted waivers to businesses?
The Hitcher
January 24th, 2011
11:27 am
I think Newt is on an ego trip and he’s way overestimating his popularity with Republicans. Jay’s right on this one, Newt probably wouldn’t even be able to win in Georgia.
USinUK
January 24th, 2011
11:28 am
“It’s so much easier to continue to spout platitudes. Because it requires no effort on your behalf.”
there. fyt.
“Yet if you compare the middle class today to the one of 40 years ago, the wealth and luxury that they live in is hands down better today.”
why? because they have more color teevees in their house? it’s what you KEEP, not what you earn or what you have – people are able to keep less and less because life costs more and more
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/1a8a5cb2-9ab2-11df-87e6-00144feab49a.html#axzz1BsPeMkVD
Mr. Right
January 24th, 2011
11:28 am
10 law enforcement officers shot in the US in the last 24 hours. 3 in FL, 4 in Detroit, 2 in WA, 1 in Indy. CNN —- So sad !