Eight days to go, time for election predictions

538

Source: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

With the midterm election now just eight days away, it’s time to show your stuff. Break out your crystal balls and predict — in hard numbers — how many seats the Republicans will occupy in both the House and Senate by the time the smoke lifts off the battlefield and the polls close in Alaska and Hawaii.

Democrats are claiming that their voters are finally awakening to the challenge ahead, while Republican scoff at the notion and predict great things ahead.  As of Sunday, Nate Silver, the statistician behind the fivethirtyeight blog, was predicting that the Democrats will still hold a four-vote margin in the Senate, while Republicans would have a 25-vote margin in the House.

But what’s YOUR call?

I’ll take the winner out to lunch at Manuel’s, at my expense.  For you conservatives, that’s not only a free lunch, it’s a chance to tell me face to face just how wrong I am about everything (but we’ll only have an hour or so.)

The rules are easy:

– How many seats in the House will Republicans hold?

– How many seats in the Senate will Republicans hold? (For scoring purposes, each Senate seat will be valued at four House seats).

– For the tie-breaker, please predict the percentage of the popular vote that Nathan Deal wins in the Georgia governor’s race.

– All entries must be posted in this blog item, and they close at midnight Tuesday, Oct. 26.

314 comments Add your comment

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
8:49 am

aw MAN … lunch at Manuel’s??? does that include transatlantic airfare, too??? (I miss me some Manuel’s wings!)

stands for decibels

October 25th, 2010
8:55 am

But what’s YOUR call?

my call is the rather cowardly, but statistically sensible, “whatever Nate says it’s going to be.”

Which at this point has the GOP taking about fifty House seats (so it changes hands), six Senate seats (so it doesn’t change hands), and Barnes loses to Deal by 5.5 points.

Kinda thing you expect when the economy continues to be, as we used to say back in the day, teh suxorz.

So Jay, how’s the fambly? anything you care to relate here?

stands for decibels

October 25th, 2010
8:55 am

argh! slanties!

Jay

October 25th, 2010
9:01 am

As for the medical report, my dad is doing well.

And after quadruple bypass Sunday, my 81-year-old father in law faces a long road ahead but so far so good.

Union

October 25th, 2010
9:05 am

repugs House = 232
repugs Senate = 47

deal = 39%

Union

October 25th, 2010
9:06 am

glad your father is doing better..

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
9:06 am

Jay – glad to hear your dad is on the mend! Best wishes for your FIL – I’m sure he’s feeling like he’s been kicked by a horse (repeatedly) in the chest.

Make sure they know that the irregulars here at Bookmaniac central are keeping them in our thoughts.

Normal

October 25th, 2010
9:06 am

Good morning all,

Off topic, but a feel good story…

http://www.navytimes.com/news/2010/10/navy_overboardrescue_110110/

…and my prediction? Well, I’m the eternal optimist so I predict the Democrats will retain both Houses and pass a resolution making Obama President For Life… :D

Jay

October 25th, 2010
9:08 am

FYI, these dual medical emergencies have forced me to cancel plans to cover the Rally for Sanity in Washington next weekend.

Peadawg

October 25th, 2010
9:09 am

– How many seats in the House will Republicans hold? – 53

– How many seats in the Senate will Republicans hold? (For scoring purposes, each Senate seat will be valued at four House seats). – 232

– For the tie-breaker, please predict the percentage of the popular vote that Nathan Deal wins in the Georgia governor’s race. – 54%

You gonna pay for gas to drive from Athens?

Jay

October 25th, 2010
9:09 am

39 percent for Deal, Union?

wow.

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
9:09 am

dammit, Jay … where are your priorities! everyone knows we libs hate fambly and country and god and all that …

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
9:10 am

Peadawg – 232 seats in the Senate???

no Manuel’s for you

A Hearty Cheese Sauce

October 25th, 2010
9:10 am

Prediction…Katy “The Miserable Little Troll” Couric will launch a hostile takeover of the whitehouse only to be foiled then be fired by CBS but employed by NPR.

Senate
Reps 56
Dems 50

House
Reps 237
Dems 218

Govs
Reps 40
Dems 17

“Liberals don’t think they have any politics. They think they are in a state of nature. Only those who disagree with them are unnatural.”

Peadawg

October 25th, 2010
9:11 am

LOL, USinUK. switch those around

– How many seats in the House will Republicans hold? – 232

– How many seats in the Senate will Republicans hold? (For scoring purposes, each Senate seat will be valued at four House seats). – 53

– For the tie-breaker, please predict the percentage of the popular vote that Nathan Deal wins in the Georgia governor’s race. – 54%

You gonna pay for gas to drive from Athens?

stands for decibels

October 25th, 2010
9:12 am

Guess I should’ve given actual numbers, so I’ll try again. Based on what Nate Silver’s number chugging:

Senate winds up 50 Dems plus Bernie and Joementum = 52 to 48.
House winds up 228 Reps to 207 Dems.
Deal wins with 51.2% of vote.

And Jay, Godspeed both your patriarchal parental units. Been there (well, halfway there, knock wood), done that, got the t-shirt.

Lonesome Rhodes

October 25th, 2010
9:12 am

– How many seats in the House will Republicans hold? 219

– How many seats in the Senate will Republicans hold? (For scoring purposes, each Senate seat will be valued at four House seats). 47

– For the tie-breaker, please predict the percentage of the popular vote that Nathan Deal wins in the Georgia governor’s race. 45%

stands for decibels

October 25th, 2010
9:13 am

39 percent for Deal, Union?

wow.

Libbertarians can be funny critters.

Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)

October 25th, 2010
9:13 am

Well, I’ll go with the Republicans gaining 45 seats in the House, going up to 48 seats in the Senate, and our boy Nathan Deal beating the librul Democrat Roy Barnes by 8 points in a run-off before heading to court on corruption charges and handing off the guvner seat to Casey Cagle. Take my word for it, Nathan will look good in a tailored prison jumpsuit that one of his cos. makes and sells to the guvmint.

And I’m picking June 15 as the federal guvmint shutdown date when the Tea Party people find out their SS checks and Medicare are handled by federal employees that ain’t getting paid to work any more.

Have a good Monday everybody.

Kamchak

October 25th, 2010
9:14 am

Sending the positive vibes your way, Jay.

As for the topic at hand, the fivethirtyeight thingie sounds about right.

Deal will win by a percentage to claim a “mandate” (whatever the hell that means).

Bosch

October 25th, 2010
9:14 am

I predict the GOP takes back the House –by 53 seats — Senate GOP wins six seats and Deal wins Gubernator by 10 points.

jt

October 25th, 2010
9:15 am

Jay,,,,,,,everything will be aite. Good luck and best wishes.

Senate repugs———–47
House repugs————235
Goobnors repug———30

I would like to be happy if my predictions come true but call me cynical. Repugs are repugnant for librty loving individuals. Here are the four pieces of legislation that an overwhelming majority of House Republicans voted to pass ON THE SAME DAY they published their Pledge:

* The Family Health Care Accessibility Act
* The Emergency Medic Transition Act
* The National All Schedules Prescription Electronic Reporting Reauthorization Act
* The Training and Research for Autism Improvements Nationwide Act

Big government liers.

Union

October 25th, 2010
9:15 am

@ jay.. im still holding out for oxendine to come back.. no really.. i think barnes has a shot.. i dunno why.. i just do..

you would think out of 10 million ppl in georgia.. we could have found someone else other than these two… sad.. sad.. sad..

Bosch

October 25th, 2010
9:16 am

And Jay, yeah, the positive vibes coming your way from the Bosch household as well.

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
9:16 am

Kam – mmmmm … man-dates … I wonder if it includes a corsage?

Bosch

October 25th, 2010
9:17 am

“im still holding out for oxendine to come back..”

And Union gives us a good funny for a rainy Monday!

stands for decibels

October 25th, 2010
9:20 am

i think barnes has a shot.. i dunno why.. i just do..

Really? I hereby apologize for my cheap shot @ 9.13, I figured you thought Monds would surge and force a runoff.

McDonough Dem

October 25th, 2010
9:25 am

Republicans in the house-235
Republicans in the Senate- 48
Deal- 49%

paleo-neoCarlinist

October 25th, 2010
9:27 am

wow, the paleo-neo-Carlinist politicians are bookies and Washington DC is a casino metaphor is alive and well. why handicap the elections? why not either vote or not vote? anyone remember “Dewey Defeats Truman”? how about the phrase “hanging chad”? what about the the 1960 election, with dead people voting for JFK in Chicago and West VA? in fact, maybe we should all just place financial wagers on these races? as with betting on a horse race, football game or basketball game, none among us will have ANY influence on the outcome, but at least half of us might “earn” some redstributed wealth.

stands for decibels

October 25th, 2010
9:27 am

cancel plans to cover the Rally for Sanity in Washington next weekend.

that is a shame–you and Jon really seem to be somewhat kindred spirits and an on-the-ground report would’ve been a nice treat for us.

By the way, Fresh Air’s Terri Gross did a wonderful interview with Jon Stewart a couple weeks back. I found it illuminating mostly for the shop-talk (if you ever wondered how they put The Daily Show together, you’ll know after you hear it) but also for his own heartfelt belief that we Americans are, basically, a lot better than we tend to be portrayed, especially of late, and that this country has weathered a lot worse than what we’re dealing with now.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130704771&ft=1&f=13

Doggone/GA

October 25th, 2010
9:30 am

sfd…I didn’t catch that one, but I did catch the one a few years ago where she interviewed Bill O’Reilly. She had the sense to just let him rant himself into idiocy before he worked himself into a lather and quit the interview.

stands for decibels

October 25th, 2010
9:30 am

in fact, maybe we should all just place financial wagers on these races?

This is kind of a shocking thing to read from a guy who, I thought, was a tad more astute about these matters.

I mean, dude. Intrade.

http://www.intrade.com/

Been around awhile…

Red

October 25th, 2010
9:31 am

– How many seats in the House will Republicans hold? 221

– How many seats in the Senate will Republicans hold? (For scoring purposes, each Senate seat will be valued at four House seats). 49

– For the tie-breaker, please predict the percentage of the popular vote that Nathan Deal wins in the Georgia governor’s race. 56%

Van Jones

October 25th, 2010
9:31 am

I’d better not play because, with my luck, I’d win… and with only an hour I doubt I could even get through the list of topics, much less a thorough explanation.

Obama

October 25th, 2010
9:35 am

You guys are all wrong. I’m a shoo in to win this thing. Okay, like I said during the election, I visited all 57 states. That means there’s 114 Senators, 57 governors, and I guess the House would be around 470 seats. So here’s the winning prediction:

Senators: D – 60 R – 54

House: D – 250 R – 220

Governor: D – 35 R – 22

I like my steak medium well.

Kamchak

October 25th, 2010
9:36 am

USinUK

Corsage?

I just ask myself—what would Mr. Potato Head do?

jm

October 25th, 2010
9:37 am

R’s in House – 232
R’s in Senate – 48
Deal – 56%

Southern Comfort

October 25th, 2010
9:37 am

G’morning folks and afternoon UnU…

Kinda hard to think straight with the sky falling all around me, but here’s my predictions:

GOP House: 223
GOP Senate: 46
Deal: 54% (SMH just thinking about that!!)

Peadawg

October 25th, 2010
9:37 am

LMAO @ 9:35!!!!!

Southern Comfort

October 25th, 2010
9:39 am

Is it just me, or is there a need for American Civics for a few posters??? I didn’t know the Senate had increased above 100. The things I learn at Bookman’s. They must be counting the Senators from all 57 states. :)

Don't Forget

October 25th, 2010
9:42 am

Glad to hear the positive news on the medical front Jay. It WILL take a while to recover from the bypass surgery but my aunt had a bypass and valve repair when she was 82 and now she’s 85 and doing a mile on the treadmill every other day. Thank God for medicare.

Baker

October 25th, 2010
9:43 am

House Repubs – 233
Senate Repubs- 49 (way to go Delaware, O’Donnel at home on Nov. 3 pouting over stale Halloween candy)
Deal gets 43% (and for that matter Barnes gets 39%, meaning Monds just misses 20% and comes it at 18%, Libertarian hearts and hopes crushed again, they’re like Braves fans)

Don't Forget

October 25th, 2010
9:43 am

SC, I was thinking the same thing. It’s like they’re picking a football score.

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
9:43 am

Kam – speaking of Mr. Potato Head … the cartoon in this morning’s paper was 2 guys sitting in their cubicals, “so, how was your weekend? not that it was a patch on Wayne Rooney’s”

for me, the theatrics of it made my stomach turn. if I was a Man U fan, I’d be livid.

kimmer

October 25th, 2010
9:45 am

House: Reps hold 232
Senate:Reps hold 49
Deal gets 48.5% of popular vote

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
9:46 am

kimmer – is that Deal wins with 48.5% or he loses with 48.5%

Don't Forget

October 25th, 2010
9:51 am

Senate Dems 53 Reps 47
House Reps 226 Dems 209
Tea Party – 0, there’s no such thing, they are just mad dog R’s in 3 point hats

Don't Forget

October 25th, 2010
9:53 am

Almost forgot, Deal gets 42%

Don't Forget

October 25th, 2010
9:55 am

Jay, you forgot about the “keep fear alive” part of the rally this weekend.

Union

October 25th, 2010
9:56 am

could be worse.. we could be in california right now.. just saying..

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
9:57 am

Union – or Greece … or Portugal … or Ireland … or France … none of which are particularly pretty, fiscally speaking

HDB

October 25th, 2010
9:59 am

Prediction: Republicans get 225 seats in the House
Democrats maintain the Senate with 53…..
Runoff for Governor: Barnes: 44%….Deal 43%
After the runoff….Barnes 50.2%

HDB

October 25th, 2010
10:00 am

Jay…BTW…glad to hear that the surgery went well for your dad!!

FinnMcCool

October 25th, 2010
10:01 am

Without NPR, we would soon be left with very little on the radio that doesn’t conform to the debased worldview of Rupert Murdoch, or that fails to make money for the likes of him.

The Williams affair happens to have occurred at a moment when many NPR stations are in the midst of seasonal fundraising. With that coincidence comes an unusual opportunity. I’ve been a regularly contributing member of my local NPR station for many years; but this week, I’m going to give a few dollars more. Everybody who prefers real reporting to propaganda parading as journalism can ante up, too.
http://www.salon.com/news/media_criticism/index.html?story=/opinion/conason/2010/10/22/npr

Union

October 25th, 2010
10:02 am

usinuk.. least the riots havent started in california..

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
10:03 am

Union … yet …

Mr Right

October 25th, 2010
10:03 am

I’m holding my predictions till Nov 3 !

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
10:04 am

Don't Forget

October 25th, 2010
10:05 am

Despite record political spending and months of frenzied campaigning, one-third of likely voters remain steadfastly undecided or favor a candidate but say they could change their mind, according to the survey.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39830395/ns/politics-decision_2010/

Still a moving target in a lot of places.

FinnMcCool

October 25th, 2010
10:05 am

If Republicans don’t get huge numbers there will be riots next Wednesday. Angry white people burning everything in sight.

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
10:08 am

Finn – let’s hope they start with Wal-Marts and move on to Abercrombie & Fitsch

Southern Comfort

October 25th, 2010
10:09 am

If Republicans don’t get huge numbers there will be riots next Wednesday. Angry white people burning everything in sight.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Union

October 25th, 2010
10:10 am

Hypocrite hunter

October 25th, 2010
10:10 am

Jay, for the opportunity to talk with you (and even listen a little) face to face…I would buy.

US Senate Reps 52
US House Reps 238
Georgia Gov Reps 48%, then 55% in the runoff.

Mr Right

October 25th, 2010
10:11 am

FinnMcCool

October 25th, 2010
10:05 am

Yea, them tea party people are going to start killing people! If you don’t believe ask C Tucker !

Hypocrite hunter

October 25th, 2010
10:11 am

On second thought…change US Senate Reps to 50

Bosch

October 25th, 2010
10:13 am

“Finn – let’s hope they start with Wal-Marts and move on to Abercrombie & Fitsch”

Then Applebees, Chilis, Outback and every other fast food restaurant that masks itself as having real food but instead has food worse than real fast food and charges like 70% more.

Just saying.

Jack

October 25th, 2010
10:15 am

Getting the majority in the House is the most important. If Dems only have a 4 seat majority in the Senate, you’ll see some serious bailing. A serious priority will be to reverse the health care debacle.

the guy on the couch

October 25th, 2010
10:15 am

Finn,

White people don’t riot.

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
10:16 am

Bosch – TESTIFY! (and please include The Olive Pit in that list)

Nice Guy

October 25th, 2010
10:16 am

Finn – “If Republicans don’t get huge numbers there will be riots next Wednesday. Angry white people burning everything in sight.”

Right, because that’s what white people do, riot. How foolish.

Normal

October 25th, 2010
10:17 am

“If Republicans don’t get huge numbers there will be riots next Wednesday. Angry white people burning everything in sight.”

I wonder if they will be burning their Social Security cards like they did their draft cards, heh, heh…

Nice Guy

October 25th, 2010
10:17 am

Bosch –

Applebee & Outback, fine, but Chilis?? C’mon man, Chilis is fantastic!

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
10:17 am

Mr Right

October 25th, 2010
10:18 am

White people don’t riot.

Wrong!! Conservative’s don’t riot.

Nice Guy

October 25th, 2010
10:18 am

“let’s hope they start with Wal-Marts and move on to Abercrombie & Fitsch”

Uh oh, do we have a corporate hater among us?

Nice Guy

October 25th, 2010
10:19 am

“guy on the couch – really?”

We’re talking America, & American elections, correct? Thought so.

Bosch

October 25th, 2010
10:20 am

Nice Guy,

Chili’s is gross. Even their margaritas suck.

USinUK,

Olive Pit. Good one, I thought of that as soon as I hit submit.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

“A serious priority will be to reverse the health care debacle.”

The wingnuts want to drop people from being covered when they get sick, and keep children with asthma from getting health insurance. What sad pathetic people.

Why do they hate children?

Don't Forget

October 25th, 2010
10:20 am

the guy on the couch

October 25th, 2010
10:15 am
Finn,

White people don’t riot.

lol, sad thing is you’re probably serious

Nice Guy

October 25th, 2010
10:23 am

Bosch –

“The wingnuts want to drop people from being covered when they get sick, and keep children with asthma from getting health insurance. What sad pathetic people. Why do they hate children”

The real question is why do the Left-nuts continue to peddle such ridiculous lies? How can anyone seriously think that the Repubs hate children?

Bosch, I expect better from you.

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
10:23 am

Nice guy – you didn’t say white americans – you just said white people …

“Uh oh, do we have a corporate hater among us?”

no – just hate the loud music and the stench of A&F cologne wafting from the store … and WalMart is a blight on the country

professional skeptic

October 25th, 2010
10:23 am

the guy on the couch
October 25th, 2010
10:15 am

White people don’t riot

They just “look toward their 2nd Amendment remedies.”

(see quote #1):
http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/republicanquotes/a/Sharron-Angle-Quotes.htm

larry

October 25th, 2010
10:23 am

Glad your father is doing better , Jay

As for my predictions,

House Rep 210 seats Dem. 225
Senate Rep 46 Dem 54
Govenor’s Race Barnes 49% Deal 48% Monds 3%
Lt. Govenor’s Race Cagle 49% Porter 47% Lib 4%

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
10:24 am

“How can anyone seriously think that the Repubs hate children? ”

they don’t hate ALL children … just the poor ones

Bosch

October 25th, 2010
10:24 am

“Also, a Democratic governor laid out a scheme for employers to get out of health care by shifting workers into taxpayer-subsidized insurance markets that open in 2014.”

from http://www.ajc.com/business/employers-looking-at-health-689597.html

Personally, I think this is what the Dems plan from the start. And to be honest, I don’t have a problem with it. For years the health insurance has been supported on the backs of other industries paying outrageous health premiums, and because of that have had to cut their employees wages.

So, drop the coverage, pay your employees better wages, and invest in your own business instead of the health insurance crooks. Sounds like a plan.

Atlas Shrugging

October 25th, 2010
10:24 am

Jay, you might want to consider having multiple choice questions for your rep-ugant and Dem-wit bloggers. House 232, Senate 47, Deal 51.4%.

Don't Forget

October 25th, 2010
10:25 am

Wasn’t the original tea party a riot?

stands for decibels

October 25th, 2010
10:25 am

Right, because that’s what white people do, riot.

Riot of me own!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoJYM3krDWQ&ob=av2n

white people go to school
where they teach you how to be thick…

Shocked

October 25th, 2010
10:25 am

House – Republicans 225

Senate – Republicans 46

Deal – 44.2 %

Bosch

October 25th, 2010
10:27 am

Nice Guy,

“The real question is why do the Left-nuts continue to peddle such ridiculous lies? How can anyone seriously think that the Repubs hate children? ”

Is it such a lie when the GOP keeps saying they want to repeal the health care law which includes children with pre-existing conditions not being denied coverage?

I’m just practicing for my job as a political negative ad campaign guru. What do you think?

larry

October 25th, 2010
10:27 am

Remember when Bush vetoed money for the SCHIP program , a program to help children of parents who made too much for medicaid and didnt have health insurance?

Naaa, how can anyone think Repubs hate children ?

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
10:27 am

Don’t Forget – and let’s not forget the Boston Massacre,

Doggone/GA

October 25th, 2010
10:27 am

“Wasn’t the original tea party a riot?”

No, it wasn’t. It was sabotage.

Nice Guy

October 25th, 2010
10:27 am

“no – just hate the loud music and the stench of A&F cologne wafting from the store … and WalMart is a blight on the country”

I’m with ya on the A&F music and cologne, lol. Wal-mart is fantastic, unless you (not you directly USinUK) are a Union goon, in which case you may hate them.

Bosch

October 25th, 2010
10:27 am

“they don’t hate ALL children … just the poor ones”

USinUK,

Or the ones with asthma who get dropped from their parents insurance.

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
10:30 am

NiceGuy – WalMart is the leading contributor to the death of small businesses in towns across the country – not to mention, a leading contributor of China’s dominance over US manufacturing …

but, other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

stands for decibels

October 25th, 2010
10:30 am

Is it such a lie when the GOP keeps saying they want to repeal the health care law which includes children with pre-existing conditions not being denied coverage?

Let’s not forget that lovely principled stand they took against expanding SCHIP in 2007 as well.

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
10:31 am

Nice Guy – after I wrote that about A&F, I realized that it’s that kind of comment that officially makes me OLD.

(but their cologne really is offensive – GAH)

USinUK

October 25th, 2010
10:32 am

Bosch – 10:27 – those kids need to learn how to pick themselves up by their wheezy bootstraps, dammit

Nice Guy

October 25th, 2010
10:32 am

Bosch – “Is it such a lie when the GOP keeps saying they want to repeal the health care law which includes children with pre-existing conditions not being denied coverage”

Let’s go ahead and get this one straight. From the onset, the Right was conceding that healthcare was not perfect in its current state and that something needed to be done, re: pre-existing conditions, children coverage, etc. What they did not want then and do not want now, is a huge, overhaul, government chest pounding legislation. You don’t have to boil the ocean to cook macaroni and cheese.

As for your practicing, I’d say you don’t need any more practice, you’re a natural.