Gallup just released its first poll of the season trying to assess the mood of likely voters, as opposed to merely registered voters, in the runup to next month’s election. It found that depending on turnout, a generic Republican congressional candidate has an advantage of 13 to 18 percentage points over a generic Democratic candidate. That would translate into a blowout come November.
History says that the chasm will probably narrow as the election draws nearer. But as Gallup also points out, history says that “any situation in which the Democrats have less than about 47 percent of the actual two-party national vote for Congress (i.e., 53 percent voting for the Republicans and 47percent for the Democrats among those voting for one of the two parties) would strongly predict that Republicans would win enough seats to gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. If there is a widely disproportionate skew in turnout toward Republican voters and their national vote lead ends up being in the double digits, the Republican gains would be very substantial.”
In recent days, I’ve seen increasing speculation that the Democrats might not do all that terribly in November. Gallup’s initial numbers argue strongly to the contrary.