Among Gallup’s likely voters, a predicted GOP tsunami
Gallup just released its first poll of the season trying to assess the mood of likely voters, as opposed to merely registered voters, in the runup to next month’s election. It found that depending on turnout, a generic Republican congressional candidate has an advantage of 13 to 18 percentage points over a generic Democratic candidate. That would translate into a blowout come November.
Source: www.gallup.com
History says that the chasm will probably narrow as the election draws nearer. But as Gallup also points out, history says that “any situation in which the Democrats have less than about 47 percent of the actual two-party national vote for Congress (i.e., 53 percent voting for the Republicans and 47percent for the Democrats among those voting for one of the two parties) would strongly predict that Republicans would win enough seats to gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. If there is a widely disproportionate skew in turnout toward Republican voters and their national vote lead ends up being in the double digits, the Republican gains would be very substantial.”
In recent days, I’ve seen increasing speculation that the Democrats might not do all that terribly in November. Gallup’s initial numbers argue strongly to the contrary.
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456 comments Add your comment
RW-(the original)
October 5th, 2010
10:42 pm
SoCo,
According to the cited poll it’s also wrong. With a higher turnout the Democratics close the gap.
md
October 5th, 2010
10:42 pm
Well Del – 2 and counting…………maybe the rest weren’t watching……….
Lil' Barry Bailout
October 5th, 2010
10:43 pm
No, I’m saying that Democrats aren’t fully American. Anyone who hoped for our troops to lose in Iraq because it would help them politically, and who voted for an Idiot Messiah who actively works to destroy the economy and our currency isn’t really an American.
If you voted for the Idiot Messiah and can’t admit your mistake, you’re not an American.
LizBeth
October 5th, 2010
10:43 pm
My older Bible says “A liberal man will be enriched and one who waters will himself be watered.” (Proverbs 11:25) But, for some reason, newer versions have changed it to “the generous man.” The translaters took out the politicism but still make it clear that liberal, generous men have taken the most honorable path.
LizBeth
October 5th, 2010
10:49 pm
Oh, but does that make generous lobbyists and campaign contributers honorable?
AmVet
October 5th, 2010
11:03 pm
SoCo,
We’ve both seen a lot of louts and fools on this forum. And this one is near the top.
You noted his hyper-partisan bullsh*t, and it is his entire shtick. His only purpose here is to be the blog’s fifth grade brat.
To wit, the guy’s new favorite word is parasite, which should tell you a lot about him…
Southern Comfort
October 5th, 2010
11:07 pm
RW
I don’t think the Democratic party will garner a significant turnout. Without the independent vote, the Dems are doomed. I’ve seen polls where the gap is tightening, but in the end, I think that fear politics will trump all. That will give the GOP a decided edge. They’ll end up with a small majority in the House and narrow the gap in the Senate.
Lil’ Barry
Your argument is so full of speculative fecal matter that it really doesn’t deserve a response, but I’ll entertain you for a while anyway. The only people I’ve seen refer to Obama as a/the Messiah are right-leaning people. If you think he’s a/the Messiah, you’re the one that needs to admit a mistake. I voted for Obama, and I can guarantee you that I’m just as much American as any other citizen here in this country. I don’t see it as a mistake, so why admit to something that I don’t acknowledge?
“Anyone who hoped for our troops to
losenation build in Iraq because it would help them politically, and who voted for an IdiotMessiahpseudo-Texan who activelyworks to destroydestroyed the economy and our currency isn’t really an American.”Seems like that argument could be used by the left or right if you change a few words. Isn’t partisanship grand???
Southern Comfort
October 5th, 2010
11:11 pm
AmV
There’s so many who come and go (although I personally think it’s one or two who change ID’s like normal people change underwear), it’s hard to remember who said what. I’m just growing increasingly tired of the daily partisan bullsh*t that does nothing to help our economy or national security. I don’t want to believe that there are people who would love nothing more than to see this country collapse completely, but the actions and statements from some of the partisans got me wondering.
RW-(the original)
October 5th, 2010
11:20 pm
SoCo,
I agree with the result you’re predicting, but I don’t think it’s a politics of fear thing. The only ones I see doing that are Democrat(ic)s (can’t ever figure out what they want to be called, but I digress) that keep saying you have to keep us or the evil Bush monster will come back and rip your heads off or something to that effect.
In fact, here’s the main man’s stump speech on just that
/mild language alert….well the alert is mild anyway
Mick
October 5th, 2010
11:21 pm
Southern Comfort @ 11:07
Thunderous applause!!!!
Southern Comfort
October 5th, 2010
11:31 pm
RW
Both sides are using fear. I believe fear is what’s driving the Tea Party movement, which in turn, is driving the GOP. The difference between the two parties is that the GOP is more motivated. I wish we could move beyond all that type stuff and discuss the problems and possible solutions without all the allegory and crap. I think it’s a damn shame that grown people can’t have a grown conversation without all the hysteria-inducing crap. Obama should be the first to step up to end it as he’s currently CIC. He could show leadership by example.
RW-(the original)
October 5th, 2010
11:45 pm
SoCo,
It’s politics and as long as we trust politicians to solve our problems this is what we’ll have. I spitballed a possible way that we could strip their power the other night without many takers, but it was basically finding a way to join the fiscal conservative/social moderates on the right with the fiscal moderate/social liberals on the left. Then we could freeze out the most destructive fringes on both sides, but nothing is going to work when we turn to government to solve all our problems. That’s when you get the scoundrels trying to gain power over us that we’re perfectly willing to give them.
Dave R.
October 5th, 2010
11:49 pm
“I don’t want to believe that there are people who would love nothing more than to see this country collapse completely”
They’re called “liberals”, SoCo. At some point, you run out of people who are willing to work for someone else’s wages.
Southern Comfort
October 6th, 2010
12:00 am
RW
I’d champion an idea like that. I also agree with you that we shouldn’t turn to government to solve all our problems. For instance, when the economy bottomed out, the private sector should have been more engaged in working on economic recovery. I think there was a need for some government intervention, but once things steadied, the private sector should have jumped in to get things going again. However, if the private sector hesitates or refuses to do anything, we’re not left with much of a choice. Government should make it as easy as possible for businesses and/or citizens to prosper, but not to the detriment of other citizens who are served by those businesses or the country as a whole.
I’m tired of seeing/hearing people who want government to run like a business and those who wish to see it run like a charity. I would love for people to view government as a co-op. We get to elect leaders who make decisions for the masses, but they do not “rule” the masses. If they provide an excellent return of service for our money invested, then they deserve another turn in a leadership role. If they screw up, get rid of them.
Southern Comfort
October 6th, 2010
12:03 am
Dave
I don’t buy those generalizations at all. I believe there are those in power who enjoy watching others suffer. It has nothing to do with liberals/conservatives. It’s just the pure sadistic behavior of those in power.
Tea Party Revolutionist
October 6th, 2010
12:04 am
#1 – Constitutional Amendment requiring Term Limits for all members of Congress
#2 – Constitutional Amendment requiring a Balanced Federal Budget every year, no excuses.
#3 – Repeal the 16th Amendment (Income Tax) and replace it with a Flat Tax or Fair Tax, a National Lottery and massive consumption taxes on alcohol, tobacco and marijuana.
#4 – Congress must repeal The War Powers Act. This law allows the POTUS to start wars without an official Declaration of War. Congress granted it and they can take it back. Get it done.
#5 – A thoroughly independent, comprehensive, unrestricted and mandatory audit of The Federal Reserve System every three years.
#6 — Seal the borders asap and protect American citizens from the drug cartels and others who move freely across our lines.
#7 — No funding whatsoever for Obamacare.
#8 — A thoroughly independent, comprehensive, unrestricted and mandatory audit of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac every three years.
#9 — 10%, across the board, spending cuts for every government office and function including the Defense Department and all government entitlements, no exceptions whatsoever.
#10 — Follow steps one through nine.
RW-(the original)
October 6th, 2010
12:18 am
SoCo,
One of these nights we’ll have to call a meeting of the blog minds and settle all these issues once and for all.
Got a long day in the mountains awaiting so I better check out.
Goodnight
Southern Comfort
October 6th, 2010
12:20 am
Look forward to that discussion. Pace yourself tomorrow.
Later all….
jd
October 6th, 2010
12:39 am
Enter your comments here
jd
October 6th, 2010
12:42 am
Jay, did ya’ ever wonder why the Democrat’s will lose? Could it be that none of their promises have been kept despite having control of the entire Congress AND the White House? Hmmmmmmmmmm. Obama, Pelosi and Reid have been and will continue to be abject failures, not only as leaders but as human beings. Sadly, the Republicans are equally as odious. I’m sleepin’ in this election. No matter who wins, America loses.
Jack
October 6th, 2010
5:49 am
The very best part of the GOP regaining House control will be the removal of Pelosi as Speaker.
stands for decibels
October 6th, 2010
5:56 am
none of their promises have been kept
I think that was last season’s bs talking point.
Anyway. um, this. Again.
Caveman
October 6th, 2010
6:43 am
WooHoo, the job killing conservatives are back. Now they’ll finish the economy off once and for all.
Finn McCool
October 6th, 2010
6:46 am
The Republicans should be able to pull Ken Star out of the cedar chest in December and dust him off. Time to REALLY spend some money the Republican way!
Finn McCool
October 6th, 2010
6:49 am
#11 Set up a separate ordinance for witches covens within city limits
#12 Make Koch Brothers Day a national holiday
Bob
October 6th, 2010
7:16 am
Hey Joe, DADT ? That was Clinton and his dem house. I guess you Blame repubs for NAFTA since it was Clinton and a dem house in 1993.
Normal
October 6th, 2010
7:19 am
Good morning all,
It’s just not the same here without Whiner’s morning rage to get me to chuckling. What a hoiot he is…
Tea Party Revolutionist is pretty funny though. Maybe he can do the morning Laugh In for us instead…
Morning funny…or not…
http://news.icanhascheezburger.com/2010/10/05/political-pictures-game-over-2/
Southern Comfort
October 6th, 2010
7:20 am
Seal the borders asap and protect American citizens from the drug cartels and others who move freely across our lines
#1 If you seal the borders, how do Americans get their fix for cheap Chinese-made crap? How does American businesses that depend on tourist traveling to the US survive? How do multinational companies operate when their employees can’t enter or exit the country?
#2 The drug cartels are fighting wars in Mexico. The easiest way to protect Americans is to stay out of border cities. An even better way to protect Americans is to use drug treatment as an alternative to mandatory sentencing for possession of small amounts of illicit drugs. We’re not in danger yet of their turf battles, but we damn sure are funding the cartels.
#3 If I’m reading that correctly, why do you need protection from those who move freely across the border? Do 70 and 80 year old women from Germany or Russia really scare you that much?
Normal
October 6th, 2010
7:24 am
Say what you want about Clinton, but as I remember his years in office, we had a surplus, unemployment was around 4%, and it seemed that most people were doing well, for whatever reason. I don’t believe it’s been that way since then.
I think we could use some more of the Clinton era about right now…
stands for decibels
October 6th, 2010
7:29 am
An even better way to protect Americans is to use drug treatment as an alternative to mandatory sentencing for possession of small amounts of illicit drugs.
Even better, and I would argue, easier too. I think there’s broad support across ideological and socioeconomic categories that the drug war is a collossal, expensive failure and that de facto decriminalizing of possession would be a reasonable policy shift.
Sure, there are some oxes that’d be gored, but I’m sure our stalwart public servants would find a way to pay them off and make them go away.
Paul
October 6th, 2010
7:50 am
Mornin’, SoCom
Still having fun with the body clock adjustments, eh?
Normal
I agree – one does rather miss the morning musings. It’s the subtlety and all -
Normal
October 6th, 2010
7:52 am
Paul,
Subtle…yeah, that’s the ticket…
Southern Comfort
October 6th, 2010
7:53 am
dB
I couldn’t have said it any better.
Paul
The clock is back to normal. The only problems is that I’m on vacation and don’t have to go to work. I’ve tried staying up extra late, but I’m still popping up like I have to go to work.
btw… Whiner hasn’t returned from the red card last week?
Normal
October 6th, 2010
7:55 am
By the way, I want to brag some. I got a Kindle last week end. It is a first generation, but I got it for 40.00 at a yard sale and it works perfectly. Never thought I’d say that. Now, if they could only make it smell like a new book. That would be Heaven.
Paul
October 6th, 2010
7:59 am
Normal
I tried one of those, but every time I turned a page there was nuthin’ there -
Fix-It
October 6th, 2010
7:59 am
Normal,
Yes everything “seemed” OK during Clinton years, but here are the things you seem to forget, and these where 100% due to Clinton policies. Rolling blackouts in California, unless you lived there you are oblivious to this, or do you remember the fix for this? Enron, what a good answer that was, or did you forget the tech bubble? But I must say Clinton could build a great paper palace, the problem is that paper palaces don’t last long.
stands for decibels
October 6th, 2010
8:00 am
Depressing polling statistics (no, nothing to do about the mid-terms).
last month came the discouraging word from the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that Americans have fallen far short of the goals set a decade ago to increase consumption of vegetables. In 2009, just 26 percent of adults had three or more servings a day (including those who count a tomato slice and a lettuce leaf on a burger as a vegetable serving). That was half the percentage public health officials had hoped for.
And it falls even shorter if you look at the current recommendations: at least four to five vegetable servings daily. Please note the definition of a serving: half a cup of cut-up or cooked vegetables, one cup of fresh greens, half a cup of cooked dried beans, or, if you must, six ounces of vegetable juice.
There’s really no good excuse for this.
TaxPayer
October 6th, 2010
8:18 am
McDonalds offers its employess a healthcare insurance plan with a $2000 dollar annual cap on benefits. However, you can have all the hamburgers you want for 10% off. Do french fries count as a veggie.
stands for decibels
October 6th, 2010
8:21 am
Do french fries count as a veggie.
Depends–are you the CDC, or a state Board of Edumacation, doing the counting?
Southern Comfort
October 6th, 2010
8:23 am
So Clinton’s policies caused Enron. Man I love these educational blogs. I learn something new everyday.
Doggone/GA
October 6th, 2010
8:23 am
Catsup counts!
stands for decibels
October 6th, 2010
8:30 am
That nasty little knock against BoE’s considering pommes frites to be veggies is, I will admit, based solely on Jaime Oliver’s television program’s finding and may, in fact, not be all that common across the fruited plain.
http://www.seriouseats.com/2010/04/jamie-olivers-food-revolution-episode-3-103-french-fries-are-vegetables.html
But still, even only one state’s BoE believing such a thing to be true, is one too many.
Betty
October 6th, 2010
8:30 am
Any pol can only measure people’s feelings at that particular time. Unfortunately our system provides only the worst and the least worst of candidates.(i.e. governor’s race in CA, senate rate in NV). There is no accurate way to determine how people will vote until they do.
Ignorance is no excuse
October 6th, 2010
8:31 am
The closest thing most Americans ever come to their cruciferous allotment is when they veg-out as couch potatoes all day long like the fat lazy blog-hacks and material-stealing cliches they truly are.
Southern Comfort
October 6th, 2010
8:42 am
Does french fries become vegetables if you bake them instead of frying them?
Actually, Ignorance is a excuse
October 6th, 2010
8:46 am
So THAT’S your excuse, eh?
Look, I’m not a troll. I’m you. I just can’t stand hacks. People, please write your own thoughts, not someone elses. We’ve already heard it, so why repeat it here?
Many of you wonder why nobody reads you. They do read you – Over at Peachtree Pundit, or Redstate, or Huffington. Many of you have very interesting and readable ideas, and nothing would be more deliciously-enjoyable or delightfully-anticipated than to see what a good night’s sleep and a cup of coffee could do to help you articulate your daily catharsis.
If only you trusted your own minds. But instead, all we get is rehashed Rush and echoes of Beck. Worse, you think you’re being clever and original. You believe that the spoonfed portions are yours. You believe in a self that justifies mediocrity and worships puppets.
But it’s such a good excuse!
williebkind
October 6th, 2010
9:01 am
SEASON’S GREETINGS
T’was the night before elections
And all through the town
Tempers were flaring
Emotions all up and down
I, in my bathrobe
With a cat in my lap
Had cut off the TV
tired of political clap-trap
When all of a sudden
There arose such a noise
I peered out my window
Saw Obama and his boys
They had come for my wallet
They wanted my pay
To give to the others
Who had not worked a day!
He snatched up my money
And quick as a wink
Jumped back on his bandwagon
As I gagged from the stink
He then rallied his henchmen
Who were pulling his cart
I could tell they were out
To tear my country apart!
‘On Fannie, on Freddie,
On Biden and Ayers!
On Acorn, On Pelosi’
He screamed at the pairs!
They took off for his cause
And as they flew out of sight
I heard him laugh at the nation
Who wouldn’t stand up and fight!
So I leave you to think
On this one final note—
IF YOU DON’T WANT SOCIALISM
GET OUT AND VOTE !!!!
williebkind
October 6th, 2010
9:05 am
Actually, Ignorance is a excuse
October 6th, 2010
8:46 am
How often can you change the truth. How many ways do you articulate the same facts. Is it poetry you want to read?
Joe
October 6th, 2010
9:16 am
It’s laughable how you added at the end Jay that things may be looking better for dems. I understand that you libs don’t know how to take rejection because you’re all so much smarter than the average person. The simple fact is even with all the cheerleading the media does for dems they are still losing the battle because the folks are getting more informed. Informed on how Obama, Reid, and Pelosi’s radical agenda is not good for America. People are fed up and livid at the recklessness with our money.
Lil' Barry Bailout
October 6th, 2010
10:20 am
SoCo: Our President Bush had the economy doing just fine, thank you, including the Dow at 14,000. Then Democrats stopped paying their mortgages.
And you know darn well you got a little bit aroused during the daily casualty reports during the Bush administration, particularly leading up to election time.
Why do you hate America?
Paulo977
October 6th, 2010
10:21 am
Del
@9:48am
Thought I’d help toput it at it really is…
Obama’s intellectual strength and deeply entrenced integrity and commitment to justice and fairness will allow him ( as he has unwaveringly tried for 2yrs )to work for the good of a country with a party that wants him to fail at all costs and to he** with the country!!!
williebkind
October 6th, 2010
10:46 am
Paulo977
October 6th, 2010
10:21 am
You are inferring to the DNC since they have the majority. Intellectual strength is a new definition for bribery, backroom deals, and legislating against the “will of the people”. That is truly saying to He&& with the country.
williebkind
October 6th, 2010
10:49 am
Since liberals can not disucss their record leading congress expect the topic to change to social issues like demonizing fast foods and people’s choice of eating that may lead to obesity. I wonder how much we spend on aids resulting from bad behavior.
Lil' Barry Bailout
October 6th, 2010
10:55 am
Paulo, you’re a hoot! “Intellectual strenght”. “Integrity”. Too fkn funny!
Lil' Barry Bailout
October 6th, 2010
10:58 am
Yes, we do want the Idiot Messiah to fail. We want ALL totalitarians and socialists to fail.
When the Idiot Messiah fails, America wins.
georgiadawg70
October 6th, 2010
4:57 pm
All of you loosers out there get use to it. The demoocrats are goinging yo get what they deserve.