Gallup reports historic poll margin for GOP in Congress
According to the folks at Gallup, Republicans now hold a 10-point lead over Democrats in what’s called the generic ballot for Congress. (Registered voters are asked whether they would be more likely to vote for a Republican or a Democrat, with no mention of actual candidates.)
Gallup reports that the 10-point lead is the biggest it has ever found for Republicans (Democrats had a 32-point lead in 1974, during the Watergate scandal.) The finding adds to evidence that a GOP takeover of the House is likely this year, although as Gallup also cautions, “Democrats moved ahead in Gallup’s generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer, showing that change is possible between now and Election Day.”
As I’ve noted earlier, the GOP base has made it clear that it has no interest whatsoever in any sort of compromise, and will in fact punish any of its leaders who suggest otherwise. As a result, I think we’re doomed to two of the most divisive, tumultuous years we’ve seen in American politics in a long, long time. It could make the Clinton/Gingrich years seem tame in comparison.
And come 2012, the American people will be asked to render its verdict on that approach.
Politics, like baseball, is a long game played in half-inning increments. And in this particular frame, the Republicans have the bases loaded and nobody out, with the Dems just hoping to limit the damage until their own turn at bat.
UPDATE: Someone in comments asked for an explanation for the 10-point GOP surge. I responded that people are scared and frustrated, and in their fear and frustration they want government to do something. (The demand to be saved even comes from those — in some cases ESPECIALLY from those — who claim they want government out of the economy).
As I’ve written before, though, government even under President Bush didn’t deserve the lion’s share of the blame for getting us into this mess, and nothing government can do under President Obama can turn it around quickly either. But that doesn’t stop people from wanting what they can’t have.
As supportive evidence, take a look at the Yahoo chart below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last three months. More specifically, look at the timing of the Dow high this summer and compare it to the timing of the Democrats’ highest advantage in the generic ballot. It lends credence to the economic explanation; as the news sunk in about a stalled recovery, the GOP poll performance began to improve considerably.
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586 comments Add your comment
Me.
August 31st, 2010
11:47 am
Excellent commentary.
Me.
August 31st, 2010
11:48 am
First!!
jewcowboy
August 31st, 2010
11:51 am
Lovely…perhaps it’s time to open that fruit stand in Costa Rica now.
Bruno
August 31st, 2010
11:55 am
“And in this particular frame, the Republicans have the bases loaded and nobody out, with the Dems just hoping to limit the damage until their own turn at bat.”
Jay–Any guesses WHY the Republicans are poised to retake the House and Senate?? Could it have anything to do with the disastrous leadership the past 1 1/2 years?? From my perspective, the Democrats asked for a chance to do things their way, and it was granted by the American people. Since then, it’s been one stifling bill after the next coupled with regular verbal assaults on business by Obama. Not to mention the runaway spending.
Did I mention the runaway spending??
Finn McCool
August 31st, 2010
11:59 am
So, as recently as July the poll swung in the opposite direction? We still have two months for the Republicans to put foot in mouth.
WillieBee
August 31st, 2010
12:00 pm
Obama and the democrats have been the most partisan government in the history of this country. Bookman knows that the democrats decided to jam the most liberal bills they could pass the congress down the throats of the American people. From the beginning when Rham said not to waste a good recession, it’s been nothing but scorched earth from the Democrats. The birds are coming home to roost.
Finn McCool
August 31st, 2010
12:00 pm
regular verbal assaults on business by Obama
You can’t back that up at all.
stands for decibels
August 31st, 2010
12:00 pm
Did I mention the runaway spending??
which most people don’t especially care about, at least not nearly as much as they do unemployment.
http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1004-ftop.pdf
Jay
August 31st, 2010
12:01 pm
Very easy explanation, Bruno. The economy.
People are scared and frustrated, and in their fear and frustration they want government to do something. (The demand to be saved even comes from those — in some cases ESPECIALLY from those — who claim they want government out of the economy).
As I’ve written before, government didn’t deserve the lion’s share of the blame for getting us into this mess, and nothing government can do can turn it around quickly either. But that doesn’t stop people from wanting what they can’t have.
Finn McCool
August 31st, 2010
12:01 pm
Did I mention the runaway spending??
Do you know who was President when the TARP was issued?
stands for decibels
August 31st, 2010
12:02 pm
Oh, and while GOPers just love to claim “we got beat in 2006 because we spent too gosh durned much!”, um, no.
You got beat because of three girls: Terry Schaivo, Cindy Sheehan, and Katrina.
bleary
August 31st, 2010
12:03 pm
Generic candidates always win against candidates with an actual record. When these tea party candidates start explaining that ‘taking America back’ means taking away Social Security, Medicare, civil rights, and other things Americans enjoy the GOP support will wither.
Peadawg
August 31st, 2010
12:04 pm
As long as Obama doesn’t veto every damn bill the Republicans try to push through after November then everything will be ok.
Hopefully Obama will get the message that America overall doesn’t like what he’s doing right now….other Democrats seem to have b/c they run whenever Obama comes to their state.
Doggone/GA
August 31st, 2010
12:05 pm
Bruno – congratulations, you got ALL of the excuses down pat.
Jimmy62
August 31st, 2010
12:05 pm
When you favor small government and fiscal conservatism, and the other side favors expanding and spending and expanding more and never shrinking or getting rid of any government programs with the exception of defense, then there is NO compromise. How could there be? If I truly believe in X, and you believe in -X, then the middle ground is something different from both X and -X, and a compromise that is worse than either initial option.
If I, as a GOP politician, think that the Dems policies will destroy the country, then compromising and allowing those policies to go in to effect is pretty much the same thing as supporting destroying the country. And why would you want a politician to support a policy he believes will destroy the country?
stands for decibels
August 31st, 2010
12:06 pm
Shorter Nate: yeah, it’s probably just an outlier, but it still matters.
I’ll add this: if that’s what’s gotta be done to finally light a fire under yo’ butts…
ByteMe
August 31st, 2010
12:06 pm
A majority of self-identified Republicans in a nationwide poll conducted on behalf of Newsweek claim to believe that Obama wants to institute Sharia law in the USA. Seriously.
The Party of Bat-Sh!t Crazy.
Peadawg
August 31st, 2010
12:07 pm
“Do you know who was President when the TARP was issued?”
Yup but Obama voted for it and people will remember that.
ByteMe
August 31st, 2010
12:08 pm
A cleaner version of what just got caught by the language catcher:
A majority of self-identified Republicans in a nationwide poll conducted on behalf of Newsweek claim to believe that Obama wants to institute Sharia law in the USA. Seriously.
The Party of Crazy-Stupid.
Peadawg
August 31st, 2010
12:08 pm
well said Jimmy62 @ 12:05!
Bruno
August 31st, 2010
12:09 pm
“As I’ve written before, government didn’t deserve the lion’s share of the blame for getting us into this mess, and nothing government can do can turn it around quickly either. But that doesn’t stop people from wanting what they can’t have.”
Jay–I do give you big brownie points for consistency in recognizing that business cycles primarily exist independently of government action/inaction. At the same time, you seem to be a big proponent of Keynesian thinking based on previous columns regarding the “stimulus”.
BTW, I’m still waiting for your answer to my query “To the extent that governments can help or hurt an economy, it’s been all hurt from Obama and the Dems. Will any Libs on board admit as much?”
Okie Dokie
August 31st, 2010
12:09 pm
So, you are telling me that the library cop’s name is Bookman? That’s weird.
ByteMe
August 31st, 2010
12:10 pm
Looks like the language god loves me after all
Peadawg
August 31st, 2010
12:11 pm
““To the extent that governments can help or hurt an economy, it’s been all hurt from Obama and the Dems.”
But…but…look what Obama inherited.
Rickster
August 31st, 2010
12:12 pm
And Democrats have no interest in compromise either, Jay. Their idea of compromise is “you do what we want.”
Obama doesn’t need to ‘attack’ the economy. He’s done enough damage to it already with his previous attacks.
And I’ve seen very little mention of the fact that the total spent (so far) in the Iraq/Afghanistan wars is less than what has been allocated for the ’stimulus’ plan.
ByteMe
August 31st, 2010
12:12 pm
Bruno: if you really understood Keynes, you would get that stimulating in a recession is only HALF of what Keynes wrote. He also wrote that on the way out of recession you raise taxes and run a surplus so that you have some flexibility for the next recession.
Normal
August 31st, 2010
12:12 pm
If the GOP does gain control of the House and the economic bubble bursts again as it is setting up to do, will they save the banks again, or let them fail?
Finn McCool
August 31st, 2010
12:12 pm
As long as Obama doesn’t veto every damn bill the Republicans try to push through after November then everything will be ok.
As long as the Republicans refuse to cooperate on every damn bill the Democrats try to push through then everything will be ok.
Oh well.
ByteMe
August 31st, 2010
12:13 pm
Really, Rickster? Then why was HALF the 2009 stimulus package tax cuts that Republicans wanted? Hmmm?? Because we all know that Democrats love to raise taxes? Riiiiiight…..
Jay
August 31st, 2010
12:13 pm
See update above.
Uhoh
August 31st, 2010
12:14 pm
Compromise? My ass.
Seems you were once proud that Obies polls mirrored Reagans early polls. How do you like me now?
ByteMe
August 31st, 2010
12:14 pm
Normal: They’ll hope that the Fed and Treasury save their political butts faster next time. They won’t vote for a thing and just get Obama to do the job behind the scenes. Again.
USinUK
August 31st, 2010
12:15 pm
Bruno – “To the extent that governments can help or hurt an economy, it’s been all hurt from Obama and the Dems.”
I’m sorry, but regulations need to be implemented. it was a lack of oversight that got us into much of this pickle – call it anti-business if you want to, but there needed to be a significant change – particularly on wall street.
Jason T
August 31st, 2010
12:15 pm
Jay, do you think …maybe, just possibly, that it might just be…..the POLICIES and priorities of this Administration, and the Dems in Congress?
The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel
August 31st, 2010
12:15 pm
“It could make the Clinton/Gingrich years seem tame in comparison. ”
I always thought the libs touted the Clinton years as Nirvana.
F-105 Thunderchief
August 31st, 2010
12:15 pm
Bruno, we’ve had lousy leadership for a long time now. So, yes, it has to do with lousy leadership … from both parties for many, many years.
Finn McCool
August 31st, 2010
12:16 pm
When you favor small government and fiscal conservatism
This describes republicans in concept only. Did you have your head in a hole the last 10 years? Spend spend spend is the Republican way. Ever heard of any other party running two wars while giving out tax cuts?
Jay
August 31st, 2010
12:16 pm
Rickster writes:
“And I’ve seen very little mention of the fact that the total spent (so far) in the Iraq/Afghanistan wars is less than what has been allocated for the ’stimulus’ plan.”
I reported that last week, in an earlier post about the economy: http://blogs.ajc.com/jay-bookman-blog/2010/08/25/housing-market-economy-still-deep-in-a-post-binge-hangover/
The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel
August 31st, 2010
12:18 pm
F-105 Thunderchief
August 31st, 2010
12:15 pm
Harumph, harumph!! When the top dem leaders include Pelosi and Reid, and the top rep leaders include George Hamilton, er, uh, I mean Boehner, and McConnell, we are surely doomed.
Bruno
August 31st, 2010
12:18 pm
“You can’t back that up at all.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39495.html
“Do you know who was President when the TARP was issued?”
See Peadawg’s 12:07. TARP is only the tip of the iceberg. The health care bill will make that look like chump change one of these days.
“Bruno – congratulations, you got ALL of the excuses down pat.”
Thank you, Doggone. As I told @@ below, I do try.
stands for decibels
August 31st, 2010
12:19 pm
Jay, I think you might want to re-size your new DJIA graphic from its current 800 pixels to something more like 600–it’s making my browser unhappy.
flacker
August 31st, 2010
12:19 pm
Government is like lawyers, everyone hate them until they need them. A flood, earthquake, other disaster and people seek their help.
Correct me if i am wrong, but i distinctly remember when Bush came into office USA national debt was $5 Trillion, when he left it was $10 Trillion.
Every administration is going to spend, the problem wasn’t the spending but bailing out the banks who, rather than loan the money, choose to shore up their balance sheet.
Citizens send their congressperson to bring home the bacon, if they don’t they aren’t re-elected. Stop this romanticizing of what your elected official does and does not do.
Americans are so short sighted, Obama fails we all fails, same if it were a repub in office. At the same time China and India are moving past this country. Wake the hell up!!!
mm
August 31st, 2010
12:21 pm
Well if people think the economy is bad now, wait until the GOP gets in charge, which I don’t think they will. Dems and Independants tend to stay in the backgound until needed. Unlike the GOP flakes that screamed at the townhalls and participated in the Journey to Becca last Saturday.
But it really doesn’t matter, Obama’s veto pen will be ready for use.
Van Jones
August 31st, 2010
12:21 pm
Correction Jay… there is no “demand to be saved”. It is a demand for the govt to quit pokint it’s nose where it doesn’t belong. Nice try twisting the rhetoric though.
Dave the Man
August 31st, 2010
12:21 pm
Do they really have to show The Community Organizer tonite? Why can’t they just input The First Teleprompter, and let us read.
stands for decibels
August 31st, 2010
12:22 pm
Seems you were once proud that [President Obama's] polls mirrored Reagans early polls. How do you like me now?
Well, I’m happy he hasn’t hit Saint Ronnie’s lows of the mid/high-thirties approvals experienced in late ‘82/early ‘83, yet. But I won’t be terribly surprised if he does.
Remind me, how’d Ronald Reagan do in his re-election bid, in ‘84? It was a squeaker, right?
Peadawg
August 31st, 2010
12:22 pm
“As long as the Republicans refuse to cooperate on every damn bill the Democrats try to push through then everything will be ok.”
AAAhhhh, so the Democrats aren’t interested in compromise. Either you do it our way or you’re the party of “no”. Gotcha, Finn.
Bruno
August 31st, 2010
12:22 pm
USinUK–Did I mention how much I look like Damian Lewis??
The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel
August 31st, 2010
12:23 pm
flacker
August 31st, 2010
12:19 pm
“At the same time China and India are moving past this country. Wake the hell up!!!”
Do China and India have unions, OSHA, EPA, human rights groups, boneheaded elected officials, etc.? If not, then maybe there is a reason they are “moving past this country”.
stands for decibels
August 31st, 2010
12:23 pm
From Bruno’s politico piece:
some business leaders listen only to Obama speeches being tough on BP or on the excesses of Wall Street and assume Obama is hostile to business across the board.
Aren’t they being kind of, well, stupid for assuming such things?