There’s no Santa or Tooth Fairy, and no quick fix for economy
Wow.
That explains a lot, economically as well as politically.
The chart above, from Calculated Risk, breaks out housing equity by state. In Nevada, for example, almost 70 percent of homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. How many of those folks are going to be in the mood to spend money, generating the demand needed to restart the economy? Compounding the problem, Nevada also happens to have the country’s worst unemployment rate, at 14.3 percent in July. A lot of those jobless Nevadans couldn’t relocate for a job even if they found one, not without taking a huge financial hit on their home. That’s a lot of pain and sleepless nights, and cause for a lot of anger as well.
Georgia is sixth, right after California, with almost 30 percent of homeowners under water and another good chunk barely staying afloat. (Ga. unemployment rate: 9.9 percent). An economy that for years was fueled by homeowners who used their houses as ATMs has become an economy in which housing has become a huge anchor, in more ways than one. Millions of homeowners face the difficult choice of continuing to dump money into a house that they know is a bad investment or just walking away.
That also puts into perspective the latest “regional snapshot” from the Atlanta Regional Commission. “Since the recession began more than two years ago, the 10-county region has added approximately 56,000 people, which is the slowest growth period in the region since the 1950s,” ARC reports. “The Atlanta region’s slowdown is directly attributable to the national economy. During weak economic periods, people don’t move as much for several reasons. Job opportunities are slim, meaning people don’t move to take new jobs. And, with the housing market in such disarray, it is hard to sell a house, which tends to keep people stationary.”
There ain’t no Santa Claus, there ain’t no Easter Bunny, and there ain’t no easy, quick solution to problems like this one.
UPDATE: In an analysis of Michael Lewis’ best-seller “The Big Short,” economic analyst Paul Willen of the Federal Reserve traces the collapse of the Wall Street bond market to the same basic problem: housing prices.
“Subprime bulls bought the bonds because careful research based on vast amounts of loan-level data using state-of-the-art models … showed that if house prices continued to behave as they had for the previous ten years, the bonds would perform well. The research also showed that if house prices collapsed, investors would lose big, but, after ten years of solid appreciation in house prices, researchers viewed a big fall as unlikely.”
Willen and his co-authors also cite an August 2005 analysis of the housing bond market by researchers at Lehman Brothers. The researchers estimated only a 5 percent chance of a “meltdown scenario,” which they defined as a market in which housing prices fell by 5 percent a year. The actual meltdown — only months away at the time — saw housing prices fall by 10 percent a year, twice as bad as the worst-case scenario. It also saw Lehman Brothers disappear altogether.
Here’s another chart, documenting the housing boom and subsequent collapse, by Steve Barry via Barry Ritholz and The Big Picture. Ominously, it suggests that housing values are STILL well above historic levels of the past century, after adjusting for inflation.
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797 comments Add your comment
barking frog
August 27th, 2010
10:32 am
Leg Lamp 10:26 Um, you misspelled “condescension”. Just sayin’
———————————————————————————————-
I’m glad an educated person realized that..
Peadawg
August 27th, 2010
10:32 am
“then kept him in job after job, despite failure after failure”
Don’t worry. We won’t make that same mistake with Obama.
Jay
August 27th, 2010
10:33 am
Actually, Gov’t, Leg Lamp, I don’t think I have ever tried to dump all or most of this on George. He was part of it, but so were a whole lot of people from both parties, and a whole lot of people who had little if anything to do with politics played a huge role as well.
Just as gov’t can’t cure everything, gov’t also can’t be blamed for everything. It has limited powers to do either.
I'm Here From The Government And I'm Here To Help
August 27th, 2010
10:33 am
Granny Godzilla
August 27th, 2010
10:29 am
I’m Here From
The Government And
I’m Here To Help
Can’t your mom’s got Glenn Beck dressed like a power ranger and she’s leading him in circles round the kitchen table with said leash while cooing sweet nothings in his ear.
Ask her if when she’s done if she can lone it to me will ya’?
Since she died in 2003, you’ll have to do the asking. Do not worry, yet, your little man is being good right now. Of course he’s only on his third drink, so time will tell. We just don’t need a repeat of yesterday’s leg humping all the girls.
Doggone/GA
August 27th, 2010
10:33 am
“RENT a 757 for a week, then get back to me! DUH!!!”
In other words, you don’t have a source…you just made up that figure. They didn’t fly on Air Force one, which is a 747, they flew on Air Force Two, which is a Boeing C-32 (modified 757) and they didn’t fly it for a week…they flew it for about 8 hours one way.
According to this report: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2012557439_mobama07.html – the cost to fly the plain is about $178,000 of which the Obama’s will reimburse the government the cost of a round-trip first class air ticket – which is about $7,400 apiece.
The security costs, as already stated, would be taxpayer funded regardless…and SHE does not have a say in what her security detail will be. The Secret Security determines that.
Southern Comfort
August 27th, 2010
10:34 am
jm
In a different twist, you can say my mortgage is 100% subsidized by the government as I am a fed employee. I’m guessing my mortgage was one of the millions backed by Fannie/Freddie, but the initial dealings were strictly between the bank and I. Nothing in the paperwork suggested government backing. I tried to make sure to avoid anything like that.
I’m here
I work at the airport. A commute from Dawson or Cherokee would be a job killer, especially with traffic on I-75, I-575 and 400. I appreciate the advice, but I’m gonna stay on the south side.
paleo-neo-Carlinist
August 27th, 2010
10:34 am
JB, why don’t you just acknowledge the proverbial turd in the punch bowl and admit it? the econmony is not BROKEN. bubbles/bust and growth/recessions ARE the nature of the economy, not abberations. Americans can cling to their delsuional fantasies about Santa Claus or the Tooth Fairy, but the truth is, the American (post-industrial) economy has always been managed by bankers. Bankers set interest rates, which inflate or deflate housing bubbles, or provide “cheap money” for the purposes of stock speculation (tech bubble of late 90’s). it’s a win/win for the banks because they know when to stick a pin in the bubble (when America is “leveraged”) and they simply “sell short” and begin the process over. the 2008 “pin prick” was particularly rough because it involved trillons of dollars, as opposed to hundreds of millions or billions in “pricks” past. This isn’t Roosevelt’s fault or Reagans or Bushes, or Clinton’s or Barney Frank’s or Obama’s (who do you think OWNS the politicians). Wake up America.
Peadawg
August 27th, 2010
10:35 am
“gov’t also can’t be blamed for everything.”
That’s coming from someone who blames 90% of our problems on Bush.
Jay
August 27th, 2010
10:35 am
And gov’t: don’t go there with your fellow bloggers, last warning.
Normal
August 27th, 2010
10:35 am
Granny G,
It seems that Good Little Liberal revels in his missed education…
The Leg Lamp is a "major award" much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.
August 27th, 2010
10:35 am
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
10:30 am
And what was it Bill Clinton did “to make sure he didn’t have to fight”? At least W served in the reserves. I believe Wild Bill went overseas. I wouldn’t trivialize ANY military service. Don’t forget, a huge part of the forces deployed in Iraq were reservists.
I'm Here From The Government And I'm Here To Help
August 27th, 2010
10:35 am
barking frog
August 27th, 2010
10:32 am
Leg Lamp 10:26 Um, you misspelled “condescension”. Just sayin’
———————————————————————————————-
I’m glad an educated person realized that..
You do know the schools are HIRING. Please apply!
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
10:35 am
“Dude, you need to first calm down yourself and then you might want to stop pretending to be the hall monitor.”
as for the hate, you might want to go back and reread some of your posts and your tone about the Obamas (particularly your 10:10 – the hate comes through loud and clear)
@@
August 27th, 2010
10:36 am
About the first family’s vacation. I say take ‘em. The cost will come in the public’s perception.
It’s a no-brainer, and somebody’s missing theirs.
The Leg Lamp is a "major award" much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.
August 27th, 2010
10:36 am
Jay
August 27th, 2010
10:33 am
Harumph, harumph!! Truer words were never spoken. I can’t believe you and I totally agree on something.
I'm Here From The Government And I'm Here To Help
August 27th, 2010
10:36 am
Jay
August 27th, 2010
10:33 am
Actually, Gov’t, Leg Lamp, I don’t think I have ever tried to dump all or most of this on George. He was part of it,
WE HAVE A BINGO!!!
stands for decibels
August 27th, 2010
10:36 am
One of the bigger culture-shock thingies I had to absorb when moving Down Here from Metro NYC was the age at which people chose to buy a house.
It’s like 20somethings here are allergic to living in an icky rental apartment, or something. Whereas where I came from such life was, and still largely is, a rite of passage—you graduate from college, then you go live in a crap apartment or maybe share a less-than-wonderful rental house with others, or maybe suck it up and live with parent(s), presumably paying some modest rent, while you saved for that 20% down payment. Or 10% if you were really living on the edge.
(and yeah, I know, I’m painting with a broad brush here.)
jm
August 27th, 2010
10:37 am
Germain to the discussion at hand:
http://www.pimco.com/Pages/WhyAnotherFiscalStimulusWon%27tDo.aspx
Jay
August 27th, 2010
10:38 am
Peadawg, I blame Bush for what Bush ought to be blamed for. He got us into a war in Iraq under false pretenses, and as a result screwed up Afghanistan as well. He fought two wars, initiated an expensive new entitlement program in Medicare Part D and cut taxes, THEN proclaimed surprise when the deficit boomed.
But I have never tried to saddle him with blame for this economic collapse, which in truth has 300 million fathers and mothers.
Granny Godzilla
August 27th, 2010
10:38 am
Normal
There’s something really bizarre about being proud of not knowing
that…
I'm Here From The Government And I'm Here To Help
August 27th, 2010
10:38 am
Doggone/GA
Work for yourself if you have a question. Kind of the American thing to do! I know it’s a four letter word but “YOU CAN DO IT”!
I'm Here From The Government And I'm Here To Help
August 27th, 2010
10:40 am
I work at the airport. A commute from Dawson or Cherokee would be a job killer, especially with traffic on I-75, I-575 and 400. I appreciate the advice, but I’m gonna stay on the south side.
I feel your pain. GL in shopping!
Kevin
August 27th, 2010
10:40 am
could Fox News day time be more white and blonde?
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
10:40 am
“I have no problems with yankees or rich people. Why do you? I work for rich people. Do you work for poor people? I also don’t have a problem with successful fathers that want the best for their children.”
evidently, you do if they’re democrats
Bruno
August 27th, 2010
10:40 am
“is that it takes an AVERAGE of 39 months to stop the bleeding and 5-6 years before things start to rebound.”
ByteMe–Thanks for that stat, probably the only solid piece of info to give us hope right now.
“Just as gov’t can’t cure everything, gov’t also can’t be blamed for everything. It has limited powers to do either.”
Jay–I’ll give you points for consistency in downplaying the government’s role, as you did in your July 15 column entitled “Flush with $1.8 trillion, corporate America sits on the sidelines”. At the same time, can you (or any other Lib here) acknowledge that to whatever extent Obama could have helped or hurt the economy, it’s all been hurt??
http://blogs.ajc.com/jay-bookman-blog/2010/07/15/flush-with-1-8-trillion-corporate-america-sits-on-the-sidelines/
I'm Here From The Government And I'm Here To Help
August 27th, 2010
10:41 am
Jay
August 27th, 2010
10:35 am
And gov’t: don’t go there with your fellow bloggers, last warning.
WHERE WE GOING?
The Leg Lamp is a "major award" much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.
August 27th, 2010
10:41 am
Kevin
August 27th, 2010
10:40 am
Playing the race card before lunch? Thank you, Rev. Sharpton.
barking frog
August 27th, 2010
10:41 am
G man 10:33 I do feel your pain here..sorry about your mom..
not an entreaty to be bff..
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
10:42 am
leg lamp – “And what was it Bill Clinton did “to make sure he didn’t have to fight”? At least W served in the reserves”
we’re not talking about serving / not serving – we’re talking about the families in which Bush and Obama were raised.
keep up.
Paul
August 27th, 2010
10:42 am
ohfercryinoutloud
Enough with the vacation stuff, okay? All presidents get away. Taxpayers pay part of the cost, they pay the other. It’s governed by law. And it’s not like our vacations – ‘hold my calls and emails and I’ll see you in a couple of weeks.” Even when away from the White House the president’s never away from it all – no more than he is when he’s on a state visit to a foreign capital. Geez….
oh, and Kevin
Lots of bloggers view the ‘man up and meet me, tough guy’ statements in much the same way they view personal insults and namecalling: bloggers resort to it when they can’t make an argument and want to feel superior.
Just thought you’d appreciate a different perspective.
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
10:42 am
“And yet another liberal who can read minds OVER the internet”
your 10:10 doesn’t require much mind reading.
it was all right there.
I'm Here From The Government And I'm Here To Help
August 27th, 2010
10:42 am
Jay
August 27th, 2010
10:38 am
Peadawg, I blame Bush for what Bush ought to be blamed for. He got us into a war in Iraq under false pretenses
WRONG!
jm
August 27th, 2010
10:42 am
Southern Comfort – you don’t know whether your loan is a fannie / freddie loan. It’s up to the lender. But basically, any loan written to what are known as the conforming rules is going to get sold to the government. They use fannie / freddie conforming loan documents.
So know one knows they’re in essence getting a loan from the government (through the bank intermediary), it just happens behind the scenes.
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
10:43 am
Paul – “ohfercryinoutloud”
you realize I have that trademarked, don’t you?
jm
August 27th, 2010
10:43 am
oops – replace “know one” with “no one”
Doggone/GA
August 27th, 2010
10:44 am
“Even when away from the White House the president’s never away from it all ”
I’ve said that too, but too often it falls on deaf ears. The President and his family are NEVER, TRULY on vacation.
The Leg Lamp is a "major award" much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.
August 27th, 2010
10:45 am
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
10:42 am
Does that truly matter? You were obviously rooting for Al Gore in 2000, and probably John Kerry in 2004. And chances are you were a huge JFK fan. I don’t think they missed many meals. It’s time to lighten up, Francis.
pat
August 27th, 2010
10:45 am
Sounds like an admission of failure to me.
I'm Here From The Government And I'm Here To Help
August 27th, 2010
10:45 am
Kevin
August 27th, 2010
10:40 am
could Fox News day time be more white and blonde?
And gorgeous too!
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
10:47 am
GLL – his father and his step
Peadawg
August 27th, 2010
10:47 am
“He got us into a war in Iraq under false pretenses”
Congress had access to the same shytty information Bush did. So it’s not all on Bush.
“initiated an expensive new entitlement program in Medicare Part D”
Holy shyt a Democrat complaining about an entitlement program. Congrats, Jay!
I'm Here From The Government And I'm Here To Help
August 27th, 2010
10:47 am
JB,
WHERE ARE WE GOING? YOUR POST WAS UNSPECIFIC!
Obummer
August 27th, 2010
10:48 am
…having a great time on vacation, trying to decide where to spend our next one.
buck@gon
August 27th, 2010
10:48 am
“Wow.
That explains a lot, economically as well as politically.”
Jay,
Under what rock have you been living before and after your vacation? Your “snapshot” explains nothing, and it highlights little that nearly every average home-owning mortgage-paying American knows–he can’t sell his house right now without writing a check to his bank.
You can give credit to Obama for the huge ker-splat of the Nevadan economy also because he and the democrat Congress explicitly threatened CEO’s and corporations against spending so much money on high-roller junkets to Vegas–this happening as Nancy Pelosi is buying her own airplane with taxpayer money and Michelle O was going to the most expensive resort in the world.
I don’t think much of your penny’s worth analysis of Steve Barry’s chart either. Housing prices are a function of supply and demand, and you can not allocate comparison across the years without a great deal of caveats that make such analysis practically meaningless. For instance, houses aren’t commodities; they are unique items (we’re not talking about the price of copper ore over the decades). Many regional and local effects cause this composite; the value graph for Atlanta looks different from the national one.
The idea that we were using our homes as ATMs is entirely overdone. If that is supposedly the problem, then we come to the truth about FNMA, FSLMC and FHFA: these congressionally overseen organizations bungled their responsibility to the American people by insuring and promoting no-doc, 90% and 95% 100% loans when “the market” has always preferred the more conservative 80%.
Housing prices collapsed not because I borrowed $15K to fund my son’s orthodontics, but because the bottom of the housing market couldn’t pay for mortgages they got. When that happened, the bonds that “the market” had believed were OK (mostly on reassurance from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Congress), really were in trouble because assets were collapsing. People “bought” houses with nothing down, no income and no payments; how could the housing market not collapse?
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
10:48 am
GLL – “So you think that the immaculate Obamas have ANYTHING in common with the people that post here. I’m pretty sure Michelle would be hurling if she knew what you just wrote. There ain’t no commoners that have anything in common with the New American Royalty”
oh, yeah.
that’s just brimming with love and respect.
Normal
August 27th, 2010
10:49 am
Pennsylvanian
August 27th, 2010
10:21 am
Went back and saw your post. Thanks for the thought, and I actually did try out a Sportster, but with my age and my wife’s cute little butt, we need shaft drive, it seems. I’m waaaayy over looking cool and hurting myself in the process…
But again, thanks!
Normal
August 27th, 2010
10:50 am
Peadawg
August 27th, 2010
10:47 am
Peadawg, you KNOW that’s not true…
Doggone/GA
August 27th, 2010
10:50 am
“So it’s not all on Bush.”
He was CIC. Congress did not declare war, all they did (and I HAVE lambasted them for it) was pass a “use of force” resolution. It was still Bush’s decision to GO to war…and he did. It’s his fault. But it’s ALSO the fault of Congress that they were stupid enough to pass that resolution AND then to pass funding bills FOR that war.
But it was always Bush’s decision, it’s always his fault in the end.
I'm Here From The Government And I'm Here To Help
August 27th, 2010
10:50 am
BUSH….
Iraq had poison gas and over 550 metric tons of Uranium. WMD’s? Nah, those are Ken and Barbie’s toys!
Granny Godzilla
August 27th, 2010
10:50 am
“Congress had access to the same shytty information Bush did. So it’s not all on Bush.”
AGAIN….NOPE not true….
Bruno
August 27th, 2010
10:51 am
Once more: Can any of the Libs here acknowledge that to whatever extent Obama could have helped or hurt the economy, it’s all been hurt??
I guess the latest poll numbers provide the confirmation:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
From the link:
“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 27% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -17 (see trends).
Voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats on all 10 of the important issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports.”
barking frog
August 27th, 2010
10:51 am
G Man 10:47 you’re complaining about a non specific post….
Paul
August 27th, 2010
10:51 am
USinUK
“you realize I have that trademarked, don’t you?”
I steal only the best!
Overtaxed
August 27th, 2010
10:52 am
Holy $%@! How is it possible the housing prices rose so high? And how in the world did so many people (I’m not one of them) end up completely underwater on their house?
How?
I wonder?
Bosch
August 27th, 2010
10:52 am
“Congress had access to the same shytty information Bush did. So it’s not all on Bush.”
He’s the Commander in Chief – he says “start the bombing”
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
10:52 am
“Congress had access to the same shytty information Bush did”
no, it didn’t. Congress does NOT have the same access to info that Bush does.
Look up the NSC, who it is and what it does.
Congress ain’t got one
Granny Godzilla
August 27th, 2010
10:53 am
USinUK
and then she didn’t recognize the famous words of Barbara Bush after review the Katrina survivors…
that one’s brimming with something alright.
Paul
August 27th, 2010
10:53 am
Doggone/GA
“Congress did not declare war”
Now there’s a thread worth 500 posts.
What, legally, constitutes a declaration of war? Or of being at war?
I'm Here From The Government And I'm Here To Help
August 27th, 2010
10:53 am
Doggone/GA
August 27th, 2010
10:50 am
“So it’s not all on Bush.”
He was CIC. Congress did not declare war, all they did (and I HAVE lambasted them for it) was pass a “use of force” resolution. It was still Bush’s decision to GO to war…and he did. It’s his fault. But it’s ALSO the fault of Congress that they were stupid enough to pass that resolution AND then to pass funding bills FOR that war.
But it was always Bush’s decision, it’s always his fault in the end
IT’S OFFICIAL….The kook-aid stand is open for business!
Bosch
August 27th, 2010
10:53 am
“Iraq had poison gas and over 550 metric tons of Uranium.”
Even if that WERE true? How does that pose and imminent danger to those of us in the U.S. AND warrant invading a country over. Lots of countries have poison gas and lots of countries have Uranium……
cat dancer
August 27th, 2010
10:53 am
No dear, it started in 1999
Matti
August 27th, 2010
10:53 am
No Santa? No Tooth Fairy? Bullpoop! I AM Santa. I AM the tooth fairy. Somebody makes the magic happen, and in my house, IT’S ME. But I can’t fix the economy. All I can do is make my house payments on time and complain about the Wall Street crooks who invented these derivitave schemes, and developers who over built and artifically inflated prices, who got rich on short term gains, knowing full well it would mean long-term suffering for others. (Just because it’s legal doesn’t make it right, and if you have to scrooo others to get rich, then I don’t have any respect for you, so save it.) Yes, lots of dummies bought houses they could not afford. Because bankers with short-term greed ENABLED them with a smile, words of encouragement, and a free effing pen on signing day. There’s no education required to be a dummy. There is supposed to be education required for being a banker, so whom shall we blame? Blame everybody if you want, but don’t look at me. I’m frigging SANTA, and that’s a lot for one woman to bear.
Kamchak
August 27th, 2010
10:53 am
As usual, Soothsayer nails it at 9:40.
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
10:53 am
Paul – 10:51 –
@@
August 27th, 2010
10:54 am
I think it was Don’t forget that mentioned how the GOP was holding up the Small Business Tax Credit. Well…..
Eager to promote the new small-business tax credit, the government this spring mailed 4 million eligible companies postcards with highlights of the program. The response has been tepid, according to insurance brokers who sell small-group policies. The reason, they argue, is that the credit starts to phase out for companies that pay average annual wages of more than $25,000 or employ more than 25 workers. The value of the benefit declines quickly, so many business owners in high-cost states get no tax break, and those elsewhere often say the credit is too small to make much of a difference. Sales of health plans have gotten “very little traction so far,” says James Stenger, director of business development for BenefitMall, which sells small-group plans in New Jersey.
http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/aug2010/sb20100825_366429.htm
This administration is bad about putting the card before the horse.
cat dancer
August 27th, 2010
10:54 am
I love Matti !!!!
I'm Here From The Government And I'm Here To Help
August 27th, 2010
10:54 am
Granny Godzilla
August 27th, 2010
10:50 am
“Congress had access to the same shytty information Bush did. So it’s not all on Bush.”
AGAIN….NOPE not true….
GG aka You know WHO!, did Iraq have poison gas and uranium? Did they use the poison gas on the Kurds and Iranians?
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
10:55 am
Granny G – don’t go messing up my beautiful mind … or something like that … oy
I'm Here From The Government And I'm Here To Help
August 27th, 2010
10:56 am
Bookman,
WHERE ARE WE GOING? YOUR POST WAS UNSPECIFIC!
Kind of hard to read your mind. I’m not US in the UK!
Bosch
August 27th, 2010
10:56 am
“Did they use the poison gas on the Kurds and Iranians?”
What the frak does that have to do with us?
@@
August 27th, 2010
10:56 am
But I have never tried to saddle him with blame for this economic collapse, which in truth has 300 million fathers and mothers.
I take issue with ^^^ that, jay. With my limited knowledge, it should read 299 million fathers and mothers.
Paul
August 27th, 2010
10:57 am
USinUK
““Congress had access to the same shytty information Bush did”
no, it didn’t. Congress does NOT have the same access to info that Bush does.
Look up the NSC, who it is and what it does.
Congress ain’t got one”
Congressional Research Service “Congress as a Consumer of Intelligence Information ”
http://feinstein.senate.gov/crs-intel.htm
I’ve a feeling that report will lead to lots and lots and lots of quotes taken out of context.
Bosch
August 27th, 2010
10:57 am
I have the sneaking suspicion that NIF is back.
@@
August 27th, 2010
10:58 am
card=cart
IHB
stands for decibels
August 27th, 2010
10:58 am
Can any of the Libs here acknowledge that to whatever extent Obama could have helped or hurt the economy, it’s all been hurt?
Bruno, your question asks me to presume that we’d have been better off if the federal government had adopted an austerity program and allowed individual states to do draconian cutbacks in services. I think to imagine such a thing is, to put it politely, nucking futs.
Hillbilly Deluxe
August 27th, 2010
10:58 am
A large part of the problem is that many people actually bought into “he who dies with the most toys wins”. As a joke, that is sort of amusing but if people take it seriously, it’s pretty sad. Nothing to do now but ride it out. As always, some people get what they deserve but unfortunately, they drag the rest of the people down with them.
Southern Comfort
August 27th, 2010
11:01 am
Normal
I can picture you getting around on this bike here. It’s a shaft-driven bike. It rides comfortable but has the get up when you need to get going. It also has a version that comes with ABS.
I’ve been looking at this one here. This one also has an ABS version. I found an older model that’s selling for a little over $2K. I’m trying to make up my mind whether or not to get it.
barking frog
August 27th, 2010
11:01 am
Matti 10:53 ‘ I’m frigging SANTA, and that’s a lot for one woman to bear.’
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i would keep this quiet..
stands for decibels
August 27th, 2010
11:02 am
So you think that the “stimulus” saved the states from cutting back services?
It provides some relief, yes.
And if it pains you to call it “stimulus” you could always call it the Recovery Act, and perhaps remember that a third of it was/is in the form of income tax cuts.
Bosch
August 27th, 2010
11:02 am
Good for this guy!
http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/nkorea-releases-american-imprisoned-600640.html
Good job Jimmy.
@@
August 27th, 2010
11:02 am
Hillbilly:
You tickle me. Maybe instead of typing SQUIRREL, we should be typing JONES’S or is it JONES’?
LOOK, THERE GO THE JONES’S or JONES’.
Bosch
August 27th, 2010
11:02 am
Firsties on pages 2 and 3 — ha!
paleo-neo-Carlinist
August 27th, 2010
11:02 am
Buck@agon, and who “got” those mortgages for the “bottom half”? The Banks. the banks did not have to lend. AND when people were not borrowing, they lowered rates, which led to real estate/mortgage fraud and speculation. The banks were making money hand over fist during the boom, but when homeowners (mostly the middle class, the Joe the Plumber class) started to actually “make money” the banks (Wall Street) realized it was time to take it back. The double whammy of the 2008 crash was the derivitived mess. Not only did the banks profit from the collapse of the market they engineered, but they profitted by securitizing and selling the bad loans. It used to be that a lender made a loan and held the loan. the interest paid was how the lender (bank) made money. but banks realized they could “inflate” the loans by packaging them (knowing they were bad), and selling them AND buying insurance against the loans (the Goldman Sachs play). as I said, ultimatey it was the (bipartisan) deregulation (Commodities/Futures trasing Act or whatever in the 90’s, but do you think Congress just thought “this is a good idea”? NO, the banks basically wrote the law and lobbied to have it passed. as I said, this isn’t some abberation; it is the American economy in operation. the conversation from production (durable goods) economy to service economny (paper-shuffling and card tricks)
BS Aplenty
August 27th, 2010
11:04 am
Yes, Bookman-iac, there is a Bad Santa. He’s called the Federal National Mortgage Association and his evil helpers are called the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and the Government National Mortgage Association. And look at the pain and loss of equity (call it a transfer of wealth) wrought by the GOVERNMENT on the American people. The charts say it all.
Just evil, pure evil.
Bosch
August 27th, 2010
11:05 am
“Just evil, pure evil.”
No, BS, that’s Dick Cheney.
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
11:05 am
“So you think that the “stimulus” saved the states from cutting back services? ”
yes. which is why even the GOP governors who screamed and hollered against it, declaring it evil, are so happy to take their checks. the states have had to cut back services, but not nearly as bad as they would have without federal support.
jm
August 27th, 2010
11:06 am
AMAZING – even a housing or economic discussion devolves into another Iraq debate…
Really???
I know the war has sapped our economic fortunes, but is American A.D.D. so bad that people have to spend the whole time blabbing about Iraq again?
I guess so. Guess I should go back to work….
Jay
August 27th, 2010
11:06 am
It’s simple, Gov’t. Don’t go personal on your fellow bloggers. Attack their positions, statements, etc., but that’s it.
jm
August 27th, 2010
11:08 am
paleo-neo-Carlinist – if you want to stick it to the banks a bit, ending Fan / Fred does just that. They don’t get to make gov’t subsidized loans and collect the spread profit anymore.
Of course, in the short term, we’d be shooting ourselves in the foot too, but in the long run, everyone would be better off.
Bosch
August 27th, 2010
11:08 am
“I thought the idea was to help the private sector.”
It was created to stabilize the economy.
Southern Comfort
August 27th, 2010
11:09 am
it is the American economy in operation. the conversation from production (durable goods) economy to service economny (paper-shuffling and card tricks)
Amen!!!!!!! (I’m guessing you meant conversion instead of conversation, but I understood your point anyway)
Kamchak
August 27th, 2010
11:09 am
Tick…tick…tick….
Doggone/GA
August 27th, 2010
11:09 am
“What, legally, constitutes a declaration of war? Or of being at war?”
Now Paul, you already know that the Constitution only gives the Congress the right to declare war. The Congress passed NO formal declaration of war, they only passed a bill titled: “Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002″
And for that I would have tried them for treason if I had the power. Because they gave to the executive a power that should ONLY be exercised by Congress: the right to declare war.
There have only been 5 formal declarations of war by Congress in our history. Iraq was not one of them.
Jefferson
August 27th, 2010
11:09 am
A real friend wouldn’t make you pay it back…
Bosch
August 27th, 2010
11:10 am
SoCo @ 11:09 –
I wanted to print out that post and frame it.
good post paleo.
Paul
August 27th, 2010
11:10 am
Bosch 11:02
“Good for this guy!”
Yes, good for him! And now we’re going to have to suffer through the endless, interminable posts of “Carter was the greatest president ever!!!’
SoCom
(”I’m still trying to decide whether or not to buy it”)
Checklist
Organ Donor Card
Will
Long Term Home Health Care Insurance
Disability Insurance
Make decision whether or not to buy bike….
Bosch
August 27th, 2010
11:11 am
Paul,
Jimmy’s awesome.
Don't forget
August 27th, 2010
11:11 am
Bruno
August 27th, 2010
9:38 am
I have to disagree that “Mortgage Negative Equity” is a primary dampening factor in this economy, since a home is first and foremost a place to live, and an investment second. The concept of negative equity only applies if you are planning to move soon, so at best it may have a dampening effect on mobility.
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I think that’s true but to a rational consumer but lots of people aren’t rational. Everyone’s heard of “buy low, sell high” but do exactly the opposite. Confidence plays a pretty big role in the economy.
There are actually several serious problems affecting the economy.
1) Banks no longer rely on investments in the economy for their income thanks to a bipartisan clusterfudge. Now they rely on speculation and consumer fees. Neither create wealth, they are a transfer of wealth.
2) We have become a “service based” economy. Capitalism was born out of the industrial revolution, replacing mercantilism. With the industrial revolution, mass production lowered the cost of goods which expanded the market to more consumers since they could now afford items they couldn’t before. This created more wealth, more jobs, more consumers. The service sector feeds off of this but can’t really stand on its own because you can’t really achieve economies of scale in the service sector.
3) AmVet
August 27th, 2010
9:53 am
In place of wage growth as the engine of demand growth, the new model substituted borrowing and asset price inflation.
BINGO! We have a winner!!
We actually had negative savings rates in the earlly to mid 2000’s. People have now started saving again and trying to lower consumer debt but that’s money that is no longer being spent in the economy. It’s called the “paradox of thrift”. It will have long term benefits but short term pain.
4) We have the largest wage disparity in 80 years. In a consumer based economy you simply cannot have wage stagnation and expect anything but anemic growth based on population growth and inflation.
5) All these factors have led to a “demand side” problem. This should come as no surprise after 30 years of “supply side” economics. When Reagan took office the “supply side” was in trouble so it made some sense. Now the supply side is sitting pretty on tons of cash but nowhere to put it. In order to have a market you need a buyer and a seller. There is no indication that demand will grow anytime in the near future.
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
11:12 am
“But you are telling me that it was to help the governments of the states.”
some of it was – the infrastructure projects help both the states by providing funding for much-needed projects, the private companies via the contracts.
seeeeemple, no?
USinUK
August 27th, 2010
11:12 am
“How did that work out?”
positive GDP for the last 3 quarters.
so, pretty good, actually.