Daily Kos says it got cheated by fraudulent pollster
Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas has announced that multiple polls conducted for his website were probably fabricated by Research 2000, the company he hired as his pollster.
Initially, Moulitsas says, he decided to fire Research 2000 after an analysis by the website Fivethirtyeight.com concluded that the company’s polling work was inaccurate. Three statistical experts then volunteered to look a little deeper at the Research 2000 numbers, and pretty quickly concluded that something was seriously wrong. “People who have been trusting the R2K reports should know about these extreme anomalies,” they wrote. “We do not know exactly how the weekly R2K results were created, but we are confident they could not accurately describe random polls.”
We contracted with Research 2000 to conduct polling and to provide us with the results of their surveys. Based on the report of the statisticians, it’s clear that we did not get what we paid for. We were defrauded by Research 2000, and while we don’t know if some or all of the data was fabricated or manipulated beyond recognition, we know we can’t trust it.
Meanwhile, Research 2000 has refused to offer any explanation. Early in this process, I asked for and they offered to provide us with their raw data for independent analysis — which could potentially exculpate them. That was two weeks ago, and despite repeated promises to provide us that data, Research 2000 ultimately refused to do so. At one point, they claimed they couldn’t deliver them because their computers were down and they had to work out of a Kinkos office. Research 2000 was delivered a copy of the report early Monday morning, and though they quickly responded and promised a full response, once again the authors of the report heard nothing more.
No response to the allegations has been posted at the Research 2000 site.
Alarmed, I’ve gone back to look to see how often I cited Research 2000 polls. I found three instances in the last two years. In April 2009 and again in September 2009, I cited Research 2000 polls done for Daily Kos that broke down political attitudes by region, including the South. I also cited a third poll, in May 2009, that purported to find that 43 percent of Georgia Republicans believed the state would be better off as an independent state than as part of the United States. (Initially, “I averted my eyes from that poll because frankly, I did not believe those findings and did not want to believe it,” I wrote, but decided to mention it after four of six GOP candidates for governor endorsed a Senate resolution threatening the dissolution of the United States.)
Daily Kos says it will be suing Research 2000 for fraud. It’s hard to know how that will turn out, but the company’s apparent lack of a response and refusal to provide raw data don’t make it look good.
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263 comments Add your comment
Doggone/GA
June 30th, 2010
7:20 am
“you just hate the GOP don’t you, such a hypocrite aren’t cha.”
How is “hating” the GOP hypocritical?
Granny Godzilla
June 30th, 2010
7:20 am
I’m proud to say I read Kos every day, I also read Drudge for balance but Matt always leaves me feeling soiled.
Normal
June 30th, 2010
7:22 am
DEEP THROAT, two words…(dang) Less caffeine… (d’oh)
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
7:24 am
and DT gives us our first strawman of our day … thanks Deep!!
strawmen … full of fiber to keep you regular …
Doggone/GA
June 30th, 2010
7:24 am
“I also read Drudge for balance ”
Granny G – to “balance” an extreme, you should read a balanced site…not the opposite extreme
DEEP THROAT
June 30th, 2010
7:25 am
Did anyone bark up a tree this morning, the moons not out, I don’t know why that dang dog keeps howling, I guess he’s just barking at his own shadow.
koid
June 30th, 2010
7:26 am
JAY – here is a news flash for you: nobody but the people that pay for polls believe the results. based on my unscientific poll conducted in my house.
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
7:26 am
ew. starting my day with Drudge? I’d feel dirty for the rest of the day.
and not in a good way.
Normal
June 30th, 2010
7:27 am
DT, Witty too…(gawd, I’ve got a dottsie jones)
koid
June 30th, 2010
7:27 am
granny – i don’t know what you read on drudge as he only supplies links to stories.
Normal
June 30th, 2010
7:29 am
Oh, I don’t know, the Drudge is a good bathroom read, just in case, well you know..
.
. (Trying to lower my intake)
TaxPayer
June 30th, 2010
7:30 am
Oh Noes, Doggone. One must have exposure to the extremes in order to more fully appreciate the middle.
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
7:30 am
DT – as Chip Monk said, “To get back to the warning that I received. You may take it with however many grains of salt that you wish. That the brown acid that is circulating around us isn’t too good. It is suggested that you stay away from that. Of course it’s your own trip. So be my guest, but please be advised that there is a warning on that one, ok?”
Normal
June 30th, 2010
7:34 am
USinUK,
I have to ask. What do you think of a Doctor who makes you fast untill
after one in the afternoon, and has his office in a complex that has a Krispy Kreme in it? Yes, I succumbed, six times.
Doggone/GA
June 30th, 2010
7:34 am
“One must have exposure to the extremes in order to more fully appreciate the middle”
Hmmm…that’s not how I see it. If you are riding a seesaw you never get to the middle as long as you are seated on either end.
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
7:35 am
Normal – haha … I think once qualifies as “succumbed” – 6 times … well, that’s a full-fledge affair.
when do you find out about your blood tests?
the mister goes in for his on Thursday, so won’t find out anything until after the weekend.
DEEP THROAT
June 30th, 2010
7:37 am
Well its time to be more productive today, enough of the Loonie tunes, as Redneck would say ya’ll set around and spew your hatred and by the way quote a few more polls so you feel you have substanciate your veiw.
Normal
June 30th, 2010
7:38 am
Doggone,
If there is a see saw, a person on each end, and one in the middle, who do you suppose, controls the rise and fall?
Doggone/GA
June 30th, 2010
7:40 am
“who do you suppose, controls the rise and fall?”
I know who doesn’t…it isn’t the person in the middle. In order to control the seesaw they have to move closer to either end. The only one who can control it is the one on the lower end.
Normal
June 30th, 2010
7:40 am
USinUK,
A week from today I’ll find out if I get to play the scare crow…”If I only had a brain”.
TaxPayer
June 30th, 2010
7:41 am
Depending on one’s perspective, Doggone, that see-saw could also be viewed as passing through the middle on each half-cycle, unless it is not being utilized to full advantage.
Normal
June 30th, 2010
7:42 am
Doggone,
Nope. The people on either end have nowhere to go but toward the middle, whereas the middle person can add his weight to whatever “side” he chooses. That is power!
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
7:42 am
Normal – meh. brains are overrated … just look at Michelle Bachmann – she seems to do just fine without one!
Doggone/GA
June 30th, 2010
7:43 am
“that see-saw could also be viewed as passing through the middle on each half-cycle”
It passes through, yes, but it doesn’t balance there. And actually, playground seesaws are more heavily weighted at one end…ever tried to balance one with no one on it?
My take on it comes round-about from something it took me a while to understand in relation to love and hate: the opposite of either is not the other, the opposite of both is indifference
Doggone/GA
June 30th, 2010
7:44 am
“whereas the middle person can add his weight to whatever “side” he chooses”
But that’s the same thing *I* said…a seesaw can’t be controlled from the middle, there has to be a shift in one direction or the other in order to get control.
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
7:47 am
Normal – unfortunately, the mister doesn’t have an Oz character to relate to – there was no “If I only had a liver” song …
stands for decibels
June 30th, 2010
7:49 am
Oh, I don’t know, the Drudge is a good bottom boy, just in case, well you know..
fyt.
But seriously. I decided long ago it was immoral to give Drudge click-throughs so I stopped even looking at the thing. For those who still do:
1) Does it still look like a c. 1998 geocities freebie-site html nightmare?
2) Does he still have little animated sie-REEns to let you know a story is Extree Important?
Outhouse GoKart
June 30th, 2010
7:50 am
There is already a Country of Georgia so wouldnt make sense for the State to break away from the US. Plus it would be very confusing.
Normal
June 30th, 2010
7:52 am
USinUK, That’s a bummer. I wish him well. They are doing great things in that area. I have a friend who just had a transplant a year ago, and he’s doing great. I hope it doesn’t go that far with Mr. USinUK.
Outhouse GoKart
June 30th, 2010
7:52 am
Where ever she goes Granny just spouts silly BS.
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
7:53 am
Normal – thanks – wishing you well with your results, as well !! how’s your sis?
Doggone/GA
June 30th, 2010
7:53 am
“Plus it would be very confusing”
The could always name THIS one “North American Georgia” – it’s got a great acronym
Normal
June 30th, 2010
7:54 am
Outhouse GoKart
We could just call us “Jawja” and remove the confusion…
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
7:55 am
Doggone – I think it should be “Georgia – Regionally It’s Terribly Southern” … that would be a more appropriate acronym
stands for decibels
June 30th, 2010
7:56 am
With all due respect to our own Hillbilly Deluxe (his post @ 5.23 pm, specifically), I for one cannot understand the deeply seated animus toward the whole polling process one sees, at least out here in this comments page.
Obviously there is a lot of very useful information to be mined out there; on a very basic level, if it were bogus, political and commercial institutions wouldn’t pay major bucks to commission such work.
And to assert that the “only poll that matters is the one in November” as a reason to never dig into these things is to a) cede intellectual control to those who are willing to sully themselves thus, and b) be a spoil sport to those of us who actually enjoy digging into them.
Put another way–saying you ought to wait until Nov. to care about polling is a bit like telling a baseball fan he oughta wait until the World Series to pay much heed to silly things like offensive and pitching stats. (An imperfect analogy, but one that’ll do for now.)
Normal
June 30th, 2010
7:58 am
USinUK,
My sister is incredible. What a great attitude. Going bald though.
She is griping about the splochiness of the hair loss. I told her to go ahead and shave her head. Who was that Irish singer back in the ’80’s who shaved her head? I could use that to keep her laughing.
stands for decibels
June 30th, 2010
7:59 am
If there is a see saw, a person on each end, and one in the middle, who do you suppose, controls the rise and fall?
But, enough about Chief Justice Anthony Kennedy.
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
8:00 am
dB – regarding the “only poll that matters” philosophy – I’m a believer of it when it comes to approval ratings because they never tell you who is doing the talking and what they approve/disapprove OF. Congressional approval ratings are a great example – they are only marginally higher now than they were when the GOP was in charge – why? well, you have the GOP which isn’t going to approve of anythig Nancy&Co do, you have the Dems that think they’re not doing enough, etc … we just don’t know the detail behind the data …
larry
June 30th, 2010
8:00 am
Sinead O’Conner
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
8:04 am
Normal – hrmmm … singers who shaved their heads – both Sinead O’Connor and Britney Spears threw a nutty … coinkidink???
mike
June 30th, 2010
8:04 am
“One of the most significant divisions in American public life is not between the Democrats and the Republicans; it is between the Ugly Party and the Grown-Up Party.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/29/AR2010062903841.html
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
8:09 am
yeah … written by the guy who, just last week, threw spitballs at Al Franken …
oh, yeah. Gerson has LOADS of room to talk about who is a “grown-up” and who isn’t.
stands for decibels
June 30th, 2010
8:13 am
Congressional approval ratings are a great example – they are only marginally higher now than they were when the GOP was in charge – why?
Other than to establish some mildly interesting historical trendline that might bear analytical fruit for someone’s term paper, I honestly can’t imagine why anyone bothers to poll overall Congressional approval. Obviously, it rises and falls for reasons that have bugger-all to do with actual Congressional activity.
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
8:16 am
dB – and that’s exactly the point – not all polls are created equal – which is why I agree with HD (at least when it comes to approval / popularity polls) – that he only poll that matters is the one in November.
TaxPayer
June 30th, 2010
8:32 am
Oh well. Time to go massacre a few timbers, Texas-style — with a good high quality foreign-made chainsaw. Husqvarna.
mike
June 30th, 2010
8:33 am
USinUK –
I know that you have a reflexive hatred for all who don’t share your political views, but you are just making crap up about Gerson. The reason that you supply no evidence of your knee-jerk claims is that there is none.
So just for once, back up your claim. Please provide the offending comments from Gerson that are counter to his argument. You know, back up your empty rhetoric for once.
mike
June 30th, 2010
8:36 am
USinUK –
Just read the Franken article that you are whining about:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/22/AR2010062203210.html
It is a very civil criticism of Franken’s hateful rhetoric and his misinterpretation of Supreme Court rulings. Where are the “spitballs” that you claim?
Normal
June 30th, 2010
8:37 am
TaxPayer
June 30th, 2010
8:32 am
Don’t cut them…hug them! After all, they are CO2 scrubbers…
tscali
June 30th, 2010
8:37 am
the kossacks got taken? typical of liberal kooks, trust but never verify.
mike
June 30th, 2010
8:38 am
Gee is this the “spitball”?:
“No, in Franken’s view judges should be more like the Committee of Public Safety during the French Revolution — an unelected group of super-legislators who issue binding verdicts based on their advanced conceptions of justice and class warfare.
Originalism is not a talking point; it is a developed, consistent theory of judicial interpretation. But that does not make it easy to apply. As most advocates of originalism have long recognized, there is no single intent of the fractious Founders. The Constitution’s meaning is found by examining the way it was generally understood at the time of its passage — not only by the Constitutional Convention but also by the state ratifying conventions and informed citizens. Some constitutional provisions are straightforward — a president must be at least 35. Others — such as forbidding “cruel and unusual punishment” — seem intentionally vague. The determination of the Constitution’s original public meaning leaves room for disagreement and judicial discretion, as the spirited historical argument between Justice Antonin Scalia and Justice John Paul Stevens in the Heller decision on the “right of the people to keep and bear arms” demonstrates.”
Sound like the kind of serious conversation that you have never provided. If civil and intelligent conversation is “throwing spitballs” then you need to start learning how to throw spitballs.
Normal
June 30th, 2010
8:39 am
Man O’ man. Talk about knee jerk…emphasis on jerk…just sayin’
mike
June 30th, 2010
8:39 am
“the kossacks got taken?”
The worse part is that mainstream media outlets (like the AJC) repeatedly touted these garbage numbers.
mike
June 30th, 2010
8:41 am
“Man O’ man. Talk about knee jerk…emphasis on jerk…just sayin’”
Man oh man. Talk about a lonely person so obsessed with me that he always barks whenever I post. Regardless of how empty the rhetoric, my truly obsessed fans can’t help but yammer some drivel. LOL
Let me know if you ever have a comment to make that is more than lame name calling.
mike
June 30th, 2010
8:42 am
Well, off to my life. I’ll come back in a few hours and check in. I can guarantee you whatever time of the day I come back, Normal will be here. What else would he be doing? Hanging out with friends? LOL
stands for decibels
June 30th, 2010
8:43 am
Wash. Post’s Gerson invents Franken quote, gets mad at it
Normal
June 30th, 2010
8:47 am
Now that was funny! And as a man with 14 Grand Kids and two Great Grand kids, I am way beyond lonely…But you sir, have a bile level beyond the BP spill. I have never read a polite, civil discourse from you with someone who disagrees with you. You just mock, insult and try to belittle your distractor. Mike, I have tried to get you to understand, but you are really getting to look pretty pathetic. Take a hard look in the mirror and repeat after me…”All the world needs now is love, sweet love…”
stands for decibels
June 30th, 2010
8:47 am
stiffy sheets.
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
8:53 am
“Sound like the kind of serious conversation that you have never provided”
thus sayeth mr. ad hominem attack on Jay at every opportunity …
as far as the spitballs, I’m surprised you missed the lede:
“One problem with a political landslide of the kind that Republicans now contemplate in November is that it may also sweep into office various ideologues who become embarrassments — candidates such as J.D. Hayworth and Rand Paul. Democrats are familiar with this possibility, because they have Sen. Al Franken.
In the months since his election, the author of “Rush Limbaugh Is a Big Fat Idiot,” who has referred to opponents as “human filth” and who once accused Ronald Reagan of supporting the torture and rape of nuns, has tried to control his bile addiction, at least in public. Speaking last week to the American Constitution Society, he relapsed.”
strawman alert! strawman alert! “No, in Franken’s view judges should be more like the Committee of Public Safety during the French Revolution — an unelected group of super-legislators who issue binding verdicts based on their advanced conceptions of justice and class warfare.”
and the conclusion, “Franken is attempting to be serious, but he should not be taken seriously.”
but, yeah. Gerson is soooooooooooo “grown up”
USinUK
June 30th, 2010
9:00 am
Normal – “You just mock, insult and try to belittle your distractor.”
you forgot “and clutch your pearls”
Thogwummpy
June 30th, 2010
9:10 am
I work in B2B media, and anytime we commission a research company to do a study, we insist upon access and review to the raw data. That is customary practice. Thusly, the fact that Daily Kos took so long to ask for such material, doing no reviews on their own—speaks also to their sloppy practices; and perhaps that they didn’t WANT to know what they were reporting.
williebkind
June 30th, 2010
9:25 am
Does anyone with reason ever believe a progressive liberal pole? Like climategate and now the Kos. It amazes me how anyone would associate themselves with progressive liberals–unless it is for sex.
A reader
June 30th, 2010
9:25 am
All polls are suspect – they say that the poll is of likely voters, interested voters, etc.
They should say the poll was conducted with people too bored or stupid to hang up the phone
HDB
June 30th, 2010
10:09 am
Scout June 29th, 2010
9:44 pm
States couldn’t pass those either because they can’t violate individual rights under the U.S. Constitution. States can be less retrictive on individual rights but not more.
Better look at that again……states DID and HAVE passed more restrictive rights…and it took the Federal government to override…and in some cases, to reverse itself!
Examples: Jim Crow – overridden federally
Plessy vs. Ferguson – overridden by Supreme Court and federal law
Present Challenges: AZ SB 1070 – eliminates the presumption of innocence and the creation of apartheid……