Trying to make sense of a confusing jobless picture
The latest job picture is more than a little confusing. On the one hand we lost another 20,000 jobs last month, yet somehow the unemployment rate fell significantly to 9.7 percent from 10.0 percent.
How could that be? Well, the decline in the unemployment rate is a statistical, not economic, phenomenon. Previous surveys had missed a substantial number of people who had gone back to work. The suddenly lower unemployment rate, in other words, is not an improvement in unemployment; it is a more accurate, updated picture of unemployment.
For the moment, the more important number is the job loss number, and a couple of charts can tell you more about that than words or numbers. The first comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, charting the three-month rolling average of job losses through the Great Recession. You see the job losses beginning in the spring of 2008, accelerating through the summer and then bottoming out in January through March of 2009.
That chart tells us that net job losses have now largely ceased, with cause to hope for job gains in the next few months.
The second graphic, from Calculated Risk, charts job loss as a percentage of total jobs in the economy, and compares those losses to previous post-war recessions. It demonstrates just how out-of-the-ordinary this collapse has been, but also reiterates that net job losses have basically ended.
Those numbers provide additional cause to believe — but do not prove — that the worst is behind us, and that we can only go up from here. But as you can see from that second chart, we’re in a deep hole and it’s a long, long way back up to normal, whatever that turns out to be.
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229 comments Add your comment
Outhouse GoKart
February 5th, 2010
12:45 pm
One his of LSD, that second chart with the pretty colors and Im good for 8 hours!!
Outhouse GoKart
February 5th, 2010
12:47 pm
One *hit*
Jess
February 5th, 2010
12:48 pm
The chart also tells me that job losses have been reversed in every recession we have experienced. The big difference I see is that the recovery seemed to have occured more quickly in recessions where there was no huge stimulus spending. This also meant those recovery did not leave our country in crippling debt.
I’ m sure to many it is just confirmation that Obama is a business genius who has singlehandedly created the turnaround, however.
The chasm is large.
Jack
February 5th, 2010
12:49 pm
Charts are pretty to look at: thats about all. There’s jobs to be had if folks didn’t mind getting their hands dirty.
Hillbilly Deluxe
February 5th, 2010
12:51 pm
The way I read that graph it shows that things have leveled off but it doesn’t show that they’ve ended. There’s a whole lot of gray area to the right of that line and we don’t know which way the line will go there.
Look at the other lines and you’ll see several level points that then continued downward.
From a graphic arts standpoint, that’s a poorly drawn graph.
joe matarotz
February 5th, 2010
12:55 pm
Jay, why don’t you take a copy of the charts down to the local Georgia State Unemployment office and ask the people on line if they’re confused? Perhaps you can report back with a few amusing anecdotes of how people who have been out of work for months with no prospect of long term employment manage to make ends meet. I bet they all have an unshakeable faith in governemtn right now. Maybe you can be a nice guy and buy each of them a sandwich.
Outhouse GoKart
February 5th, 2010
12:55 pm
Dont worry y’all. Obamas got this!
Outhouse GoKart
February 5th, 2010
12:56 pm
Joe, they may rather have a chipwich!
Mick
February 5th, 2010
12:57 pm
It would be great if this trend follows and we come roaring back by november.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm!
February 5th, 2010
12:58 pm
This is not scientific theory, we lost 20,000 more jobs last month, duh.
mike
February 5th, 2010
12:59 pm
Good analysis. Thanks Jay.
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
February 5th, 2010
1:00 pm
Well, glad to see downstairs Sister Dusty invited all the people that didn’t like it down here to get out. Now we know who the real blog G*d is. It’s a g*ddess and she slings blood and you-know-what for a living. I reckon Bookman just does whatever she says.
Anyways, we ain’t ever going to have more jobs till the American people wake up and elect godly Republicans to the White House and Congress. Then there’ll be lots of job. Course, they’ll be in China and India and Pakistan and places like that, but travel is cheap. If people here are too lazy to go where the jobs are, it’s their fault.
I’m just real glad my job ain’t never going away. Long as we got drunks, we’ll need people to haul beer. And I’ll put the number of GA drunks up against anybody else’s. Heck, we even got people that guzzle cheap wine while they blog. No offense, Sister Dusty.
Have a good p.m. everybody.
John Birch
February 5th, 2010
1:00 pm
The graphs clearly indicate we are entering a new era of stagflation for the foreseeable future.
Outhouse GoKart
February 5th, 2010
1:01 pm
I dont know Mick…that upward curve has yet to begin it creep. For good or bad, Dem or Rep, it appears this we are in for the long haul.
Paul
February 5th, 2010
1:01 pm
It was said by some early on that a difference between this recession and others is, in previous recessions companies laid people off and when things turned around, rehired. Now, goes the argument, those jobs are gone, permanently. What jobs will take their place? And will that slow the rate of hiring compared to earlier recoveries? I’ve a feeling the answers will go a long ways to determining just what kind of a bloodbath Democrats will face this fall and in 2012.
jconservative
February 5th, 2010
1:02 pm
If I am in the White House I say the first says I did a damn fine job steering us out of a real problem caused by the previous guy. And I say the second chart says I inherited a much worse mess than anyone thought.
Notice on the second chart all the recession are “U” shaped except for the 1948 post war recession that is a “W”. A lot of folks predicted that this recession/mini-depression would be a “W”. And we are not out of the woods on that yet. Fair warning.
Mick
February 5th, 2010
1:05 pm
Outhouse GoKart
Your right about that, maybe I ‘m starting to smoke that hit a bit early.
TaxPayer
February 5th, 2010
1:08 pm
“Normal”, relative to the employment rate going forward, may take on a whole new meaning if we do not create sustainable jobs that can not be readily outsourced and they cannot all be in areas such as health care, construction and burger flipping. Further, cutting taxes is not a solution.
Soothsayer
February 5th, 2010
1:11 pm
Jay, it’s simple really: if you have been out of work for very long you are classified as “discouraged” and removed from the unemployed, i.e., you disappear. The numbers published by the ministry of propaganda are simply that–propaganda.
Jenifer
February 5th, 2010
1:11 pm
So good to see that change, but it is not surprising how you don’t hear the right side speaking about this great news…cause they don’t roll like that, they are all for bad news…when it comes to the USA.
You rock, Obama!
Outhouse GoKart
February 5th, 2010
1:11 pm
jcon…excellent observation and since in the alphabet U comes before W one would expect its respective unemployment curve to respond accordingly (U recession recovery occuring much more quickly than the W recession recovery). However, here we observe this latest U shape recession continuing its slow meandering directions and outlasting the typical W curve.
Thus, we are experiencing a completely new and different circumstance for which there are as of yet no definite answers. A paradigm shift of what could be a great magnitude.
Outhouse GoKart
February 5th, 2010
1:12 pm
Jen…dont worry. Obamas got this.
Soothsayer
February 5th, 2010
1:14 pm
What few are willing to accept is that the U.S. economy is entering a decades-long period of structural unemployment in which there will not be enough jobs for tens of millions of citizens. My January analysis remains conservative; given the end of the credit/debt bubble and other structural issues, it seems very likely that the U.S. economy might have about 100 million jobs in a few years–leaving some 35 to 40 million people without formal fulltime work or employer-paid benefits.
Since we’re already at 26.3 million unemployed/under-employed, losing 10 million more jobs is really not much of a stretch. That would leave 36 million people without fulltime work or any work at all and about 100 million still employed.
Note that this article was written in Sept 2009
LibraryJim
February 5th, 2010
1:14 pm
As I recall, Nancy Pelosi blasted George W. Bush for hiding the “real” jobless numbers by not counting those who have given up seeking employment, and that was when the unemployment numbers were much less than today (around 3 – 4 %?). so where is her outrage at this administration doing the same thing when the unemployment figures are over 10% as reported, and over 18% if we take HER accounting into the figures?
getalife
February 5th, 2010
1:14 pm
Lets give the gop another chance to create a great depression instead of this great recession.
I think they will get it right next time.
TaxPayer
February 5th, 2010
1:16 pm
Digital! That’s the answer. No. Wait. Already done that one. Analog! That’s the answer.
Mick
February 5th, 2010
1:17 pm
**cause they don’t roll like that, they are all for bad news…when it comes to the USA**
Funny how that works but unfortunately the same comment could have been applied to the dems when all the bad news was coming out of iraq.
Paul
February 5th, 2010
1:18 pm
Jenifer
It would appear, from LibraryJim’s 1:14, that in comparison to the ‘right’ side, the ‘left’ side (or is the opposite of ‘right side’ the ‘wrong side’?) played the same game.
Comment?
Jenifer
February 5th, 2010
1:19 pm
Shelby’s Blanket Hold Puts Spotlight On Defense Contractor Ties
I called Shelby’s office to complain, but the lines must have been jammed. It may be time to call in O’Keefe.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/05/shelbys-blanket-hold-puts_n_450934.html
Northern Songs, LTD
February 5th, 2010
1:20 pm
As much as I hate the whole copy and paste thing (from the AP, and make of it what you will):
Employers nationally are managing to boost production without creating jobs. The question is when they’ll feel the need to ramp up hiring, and that’s causing anxiety from Wall Street to Main Street.
Squeezing more output from their existing staffs allowed companies to boost productivity in the October-December quarter. And last week, the number of people filing new claims for jobless aid rose. The two Labor Department reports Thursday suggested that companies are still cutting costs and putting off hiring even as the economy recovers.
Many employers lack confidence that the recovery is sustainable, especially as government stimulus measures fade, economists said. Companies still feel bruised from the recession.
The department’s report on initial claims for jobless benefits said claims rose unexpectedly last week by 8,000, to 480,000. The rise in claims is the fourth in the past five weeks.
Soothsayer
February 5th, 2010
1:25 pm
What many don’t realize is that this is NOT a recession. This is the new steady-state based on all of the economic decisions made in the last 30 years: “tax cut, borrow, and spend” economic policies; globalization; bubble economies; NAFTA; Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China; our entry into the World Trade Organization; etc. The real problem the Obama and subsequent administrations is going to have is how to keep 30 – 50 million people from starving to death. Only when the bottom lines of the Multinational Corporations is affected will there be any change. And, if you follow the market, you know that is beginning to happen.
Paul
February 5th, 2010
1:25 pm
Jenifer 1:19
See, if Democratic leaders had been willing to compromise with Republicans and offer them bribes to go along with their plans, as they did with recalcitrant Democrats on health care, Shelby wouldn’t have had to resort to this.
Jenifer
February 5th, 2010
1:30 pm
Bachmann: Obama ‘Wants To Annihilate Us!’
Bachmann is sick and delusional. She has become the follow girl for the Nazi wing of the GOP.
http://minnesotaindependent.com/55035/bachmann-obama-wants-to-annihilate-us
Bosch
February 5th, 2010
1:30 pm
Paul,
And we know that has happened in this case? ‘Cause some guy called LibraryJim says so?
Granny Godzilla
February 5th, 2010
1:31 pm
Well, thank heavens we got the democrats!
A jump into the “wayback” brings us this…..
“President George W. Bush publicly acknowledged for the first time Friday that the U.S. economy is in a recession and worried aloud that Detroit’s Big Three automakers may not all survive their mounting troubles.
Four days after the government made the long-suspected existence of a recession official, Bush used the word himself.
“Our economy is in a recession,” Bush said flatly, speaking to reporters on the South Lawn only hours after the release of a government report showing the biggest month of job losses in 34 years. “This is in large part because of severe problems in our housing, credit and financial markets, which have resulted in significant job losses.”
http://crooksandliars.com/silentpatriot/president-bush-finally-admits-were-r
9.7 sucks, no doubt.
But I suspect the GOP who caused the mess and refused to admit it even existed for a year would have had us ALL in the commode if they had been re-elected.
Sorry, conservatives, America knows about the big steamy pile that is our economy and they have eyes to see who’s picked up a shovel and who hasn’t.
Paul
February 5th, 2010
1:37 pm
Jenifer
“Nazi”?
You really have no shame, do you?
And, please, in the future, try for at least a modicum of historical accuracy. The Nazi (National Socialist) Party had liberal/progressive roots and programs. Notice the “Socialist” part? Not conservative at all.
geez.
Hi Bosch!
I try to evaluate the message, not the moniker of the poster. I do believe he had a point – Spkr Pelosi raised more than a few objections.
TaxPayer
February 5th, 2010
1:37 pm
In addition to the EADS contract, Shelby also is currently attempting to secure a $45 million improvised explosive device testing lab for the FBI, according to CongressDaily.
Now there’s an opportunity to both bring jobs to Alabama and improve the place at the same time.
there is no "I" in teleprompter
February 5th, 2010
1:37 pm
Once Americans concede to work for $2 a day then jobs will come back here and unemployment will recede.
Obama 2010: Concede to Recede
Del
February 5th, 2010
1:39 pm
This is really quite incredible. A visual depiction of unemployment, by
County, for the entire United States , month by month over the last 2.5
years.
Amazing to watch and only takes a minute or so.
Click the link, and then “Play” in the center of the MAP, and watch it
change by month.
http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html
Paul
February 5th, 2010
1:40 pm
Granny
Do we have to rehash the old “we have objective criteria, but we haven’t yet met it for declaring a recession, so I’ll use it to my political advantage to not do so” thing again?
It’s really, really old. We hired Pres Obama to fix things. Either he can, or he can’t. If he can, or shows progress, we’ll give him (and Democrats) another shot. If not, it’s adios, amigos.
Outhouse GoKart
February 5th, 2010
1:42 pm
Why are you worried GG? Obamas got this!!
TaxPayer
February 5th, 2010
1:43 pm
Paul,
If you start opening those wormy cans, you know we’ll be forced to dredge up the Bush family dealings with WWII Germany and then folks will question whether he was a conservative or a progressive and… then, we’ll have to fast forward to Reagan’s support of Saddam and the all that mess again and that handshake between Saddam and Rumsfeld… Good Gog, man, spare us the agony of de feet! We can only trudge over the same ground so many times before wearing out all the souls.
TaxPayer
February 5th, 2010
1:45 pm
Once Americans concede to work for $2 a day then jobs will come back here and unemployment will recede.
I’m willing to go as high as ten dollars per day but I expect a good day’s work. No slouching.
Mick
February 5th, 2010
1:45 pm
Del
Thanks, now thats a chart worth a trillion words..
Kamchak
February 5th, 2010
1:47 pm
Let ‘em say no
The only way to delegitimize the filibuster is to let the minority do it–let them do it over and over. Let them do it for trivial things. Let the country see the absurdity to which the procedural filibuster leads.
[...]
As a practical matter, there isn’t space on a Senate calendar to have filibuster after filibuster without shutting down if not the entire government then at least Congress. Let Republicans explain to the country, one filibuster at a time, why it is so necessary to shut down Congress, especially when it’s to keep a midlevel Mr. or Ms. X out of a job.
[...]
Let the filibuster be the filibuster. If it is an obstructionist tactic, let it obstruct. If the Republicans want to shut down the presidency, make them shut down the Senate. If you take on this battle, you will have the country behind you. For the majority of Americans–yes, even Mr. Smith–want the government to work.
Granny Godzilla
February 5th, 2010
1:48 pm
Paul
Oldies are often goodies dear.
They saw what was happening and did squat.
Now I have a shovel and I’m using it.
With Recession Looming, Bush Tells America To ‘Go Shopping More’
http://thinkprogress.org/2006/12/20/bush-shopping/
Paul
February 5th, 2010
1:49 pm
TaxPayer
Whadda ya, mean, the agony of da feet? My feet smell fine! Well, okay… so they will on Saturday when it’s time to wash them….
Outhouse GoKart
February 5th, 2010
1:51 pm
Kamchak
That article reeks of desparation…on the dems part…!
TaxPayer
February 5th, 2010
1:52 pm
Paul,
You’re amongst anonymous friends here so you can admit it. You have a crush on Jenifer, dontcha. Word on the virtual street is that Midori is feeling ignored though so you best be thinking about both of them come 2/14. You know what I mean.
Del
February 5th, 2010
1:54 pm
Mick,
It certainly points to the inability of this administration and congress to focus on the priority during this past year.