An intriguing question about Northwest Flight 253
A reader sent Andrew Sullivan an interesting observation that dovetails with something I wrote earlier (“The attack of Northwest Flight 253 was far from a failure”) about the attempted Christmas terror bombing.
Why, the reader wonders, did Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab return to his seat to attempt to set off the explosion, where other passengers could see him and intervene? Shouldn’t he have logically remained in the restroom and tried to bring down the plane in absolute privacy?
“Think about it. First, what is the major goal of terrorism? It is not to bring down airplanes. It is not to destroy the West. It is, pure and simple, to create terror in people. Why? Because when people are afraid they overreact. And this includes most of us, yourself included.
If the intent of al Qaeda in this latest instance was to bring down an airplane, then it failed. But if its intent was to create fear and overreaction, then it succeeded Personally, I think it was the latter. It is quite possible (in fact I think probable) that the people who planned this event, and used the young man from Nigeria as a tool, were aware that due to security measures in place, there was no way they could actually get a bomb through that would actually work. The detonation equipment needed would have been detected. The same applies, by the way, to the shoe bomber.
Again, think about it. If you wanted to blow up a plane, would you attempt it from your seat, where somebody could quite possibly stop you? No, you would go to the washroom where you could set off the bomb without disruption.”
It seems to me there are two possible explanations. The first is that al Qaida blew it, that this was a fault in their planning. But that seems unlikely. You go through all this trouble to recruit somebody and engineer this sophisticated device. You and your explosive experts think through every step of the process, including training the recruit to go into the restroom to arm the device. But then you mistakenly train the recruit to return to the public area to try to set it off?
It’s hard to believe that’s an oversight, especially since — as the unnamed reader notes — the same chain of events played out with Richard Reid, the shoe bomber. He too tried to ignite the bomb in his seat and was halted by passengers. Al Qaida is very aware of what happened in that case, and it’s very hard to believe they made the same simple mistake twice.
Unless it wasn’t a mistake at all, which means it was planned this way. As the reader suggests, maybe they knew the device wouldn’t blow up the plane so instead instructed their recruit to ignite it in his seat, for maximum theater value.
Because after all, this is all about theater.
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213 comments Add your comment
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm!
January 5th, 2010
3:34 pm
They’re not that smart, ok?
Are you and andrew trying to help them?
Jenifer
January 5th, 2010
3:39 pm
Terrrists are smart.
Southern Comfort
January 5th, 2010
3:48 pm
Interesting line of thought indeed. Most of the world is aflutter because of that one incident.
stands for decibels
January 5th, 2010
3:52 pm
My re-emerging respect for Sully may have to go uncloseted after this.
Taxpayer
January 5th, 2010
3:57 pm
Terrierists are cute. Only a Republican would be skeered of one.
Ridgerunner
January 5th, 2010
3:59 pm
I guess he just didn’t want to die alone.
Why didn’t the 9/11 terrorists just “pretend” to hit the World Trade Center ?
Normal
January 5th, 2010
3:59 pm
Jay, are you saying this is a republican plot to keep us all afraid and get re-elected? Shame on them!
Normal
January 5th, 2010
4:00 pm
Who would have thought it. Imagine, the Republicans using AQ for political gains….Shame!
stands for decibels
January 5th, 2010
4:01 pm
They’re not that smart, ok?
I thought they could bust out of Supermax prisons and melt jurors’ minds.
Ridgerunner
January 5th, 2010
4:03 pm
The real answer is …………. if you know anything about binary explosives, is that it was supposed to work instantaneously so it wouldn’t have mattered where he was on the aircraft. Also, remember we are talking about terrorists here but these “lone wolves” they recruit are not brain surgeons.
Ridgerunner
January 5th, 2010
4:05 pm
What about let’s show these terrorists we are not afraid of them or their psychological warfare and go back to the mid-1960’s ………. no screening whatsoever.
Whay say ye?
Bud Wiser
January 5th, 2010
4:06 pm
Jay, like many of your sycophants and fellow dimwits, the fatal flaw here is that you actually believe these guys are smart.
With the half brained idiots here and abroad that pose as ’security’ at airports, these rag-heads have to be horribly stupid and incompetent not to be able to sneak one through on at least a weekly basis.
Just remember, they are mostly the products of a flawed system that rewards stupidity by always awarding contracts to either the lowest bidder, or through cronyism.
getalife
January 5th, 2010
4:08 pm
It’s like they are punking us.
“GOP Civil War?
FL GOP Chair Resigns — And Slams Right-Wing Critics” TPM
Mmmmmmm, popcorn.
josef nix
January 5th, 2010
4:08 pm
Funny thing, Unmentionable was making this very point just last night, It does stand to reason and, face it, giving a suicide bomber an outside chance of coming through it alive would make recruiting a bit easier…sorta like an insurance policy,,,
kayaker 71
January 5th, 2010
4:11 pm
It makes little difference what was on the mind of the bomber. He did succeed in getting an explosive device on board an American aircraft, despite the security that was in place. That is the bottom line. There are lots of young, impressionable Muslim boys to use as cannon fodder for future attacks. He probably is not too bright. But the next one might be.
thomas
January 5th, 2010
4:12 pm
Of all the plane bombings in history how many were set off in the bathrooms as oppossed to other less private areas of the plane? If a majority percentage of bombs set off were not done so in the bathroom does that not poke a huge hole in this argument? If the majority were set off in restrooms then shouldn’t the investigation shift to the possibility of this being a test attack to guage reaction and passenger reaction time?
Del
January 5th, 2010
4:12 pm
The major goal of AQ…”is not to bring down airplanes or destroy the West” What!
Given the Islamic terrorists success of 9-11, which did impact our economy and if their total 9-11 plan had succeeded our economy could have collapsed. Then consider all of their other attempts that succeeded or failed the logic that all they really want to do is scare us is frankly stupid. You would have to believe in Peter Pan and the tooth fairy to really accept that supposition as a real possibility. No they are out to bring down airplanes and anything else to destroy us in anyway they can.
josef nix
January 5th, 2010
4:13 pm
Ridgerunner…
Is that RagHEADS or RagPICKERS? I get so confused…
Jay
January 5th, 2010
4:13 pm
You’re partially right, Ridgerunner. If the explosive had worked, it wouldn’t have mattered where in the plane he was — the plane was going down. So if that’s the case, why didn’t he set it off in the restroom? The orginal question remains.
As to the stupidity question raised by yourself and others, this guy earned a degree in mechanical engineering from University College London, which according to Wikipedia “ranked 4th in the world in the 2009 THE–QS World University Rankings.”
So stupid doesn’t seem to apply.
Taxpayer
January 5th, 2010
4:16 pm
Well, since terrierists is so dumb, once they start calling folks for boarding, they should just announce over the loudspeaker, “Will all terrierists please come forward now for boarding. We will be calling all remaining passengers for boarding shortly. Thank you.”
Bosch
January 5th, 2010
4:17 pm
sfd,
“I thought they could bust out of Supermax prisons and melt jurors’ minds.”
Thank you for that.
Wait a minute, now the wingnuts are all “these guys ain’t smart?” WTF? Will you people be consistent?
thomas
January 5th, 2010
4:17 pm
-”This was a serious reminder of the dangers that we face and the nature of those who threaten our homeland,”
-”Had the suspect succeeded in bringing down that plane, it could have killed nearly 300 passengers and crew, innocent civilians preparing to celebrate the holidays with their families and friends.”
Taxpayer is Obama now a republican?
kayaker 71
January 5th, 2010
4:18 pm
Bookman,
And the bomber agreed to sacrifice himself to Allah for some Mullah just to kill Americans. Seems like there are some pretty dumb mechanical engineers being graduated from University College in London. Would you call that smart?
Bosch
January 5th, 2010
4:21 pm
If these terrorist ain’t that smart now, then how are they gonna break out of prison and weave some kind of elaborate plot to kill all the citizens in the surrounding neighborhoods?
How are they gonna bomb us from Iran?
How are they gonna smuggle nuclear bombs half way around the world and wipe out major American cities?
thomas
January 5th, 2010
4:23 pm
Jay maybe I am missing something but why are you hung up on the bathroom?
Do more terrorist blow up more bombs in the bathroom than any other place on the plane?
Or do you just think the best place for a bomb would be the bathroom?
As you stated if the bomb had sucessfully blown up then the location of the bomb would be meaningless. So how does the link work between a failed bomb and the location he was when the bomb failed?
Would you still be asking why he didn’t blow it up in restroom if the device had exploded? Or are we just trying to create dissent amongst the posters?
Ridgerunner
January 5th, 2010
4:24 pm
To Jay Re: your 4:13
1) I don’t think he wanted to go to paradise with s*** all over him. The virgins might not like that.
2) I don’t care how many degrees you have, if you set your penis on fire you’re stupid.
Taxpayer
January 5th, 2010
4:25 pm
Jay,
Maybe these explosive mixtures don’t work as fast as others or need a significant heat source and the bathroom smoke detector or some other security device would have caused a problem with the “setting it off in the toilet” scenario.
Jay
January 5th, 2010
4:26 pm
In the bathroom, Thomas, nobody could have interfered. He could have set the bomb off in perfect privacy, and the first and last thing the passengers and crew would have known about it would have been the loud boom.
Instead he returned to his seat in the passenger compartment, where people such as Jasper Schuringa could notice and jump him.
Jay
January 5th, 2010
4:27 pm
And I have no idea how this is supposed to “create dissent among the posters.”
Taxpayer
January 5th, 2010
4:28 pm
Taxpayer is Obama now a republican?
He’s always been Bush lite (so I’ve heard) so I’m not sure what you mean. Was Bush always a Democrat.
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
January 5th, 2010
4:30 pm
Well, the reason is because Terrists are dumber than a bag of hammers. I ain’t giving no Terrist credit for being smarter than us Conservatives that want everybody stripped buck-nekkid and put on planes in handcuffs and leg-irons or maybe put on the dreaded no-fly list. Bookman is just plain UnAmerican for bringing this idea up. If we say you should be scared, you should be scared for a reason.
Del
January 5th, 2010
4:31 pm
Kayaker 71,
You make a good point that the next one could succeed. It doesn’t really have as much to do with intelligence though as it does with the human factors of adrenalin, nerves and self control not to make any mechanical errors in setting the explosive detonator. Fortunately, the guy’s so far have botched it probably due to inexperience and nerves and maybe thinking too much about short timing to the 72 virgins. Who knows but they carried live explosives and the law of averages at some point has to catch up if we don’t get the security strategies right. We can’t write it off as AQ only trying to scare us.
Ridgerunner
January 5th, 2010
4:31 pm
To Jay re: Your 4:26
If it had worked as it was supposed to, Jasper or anyone else wouldn’t have had a split second’s chance to do anything as the explosion would have been instantaneous. That’s what explosions are …………. they are not “fires”. It malfunctioned.
Jay
January 5th, 2010
4:31 pm
Taxpayer, even if all that were true, your odds of not being noticed would be much higher in the restroom. He had reportedly been in the restroom for 20 minutes before returning to his seat.
Jay
January 5th, 2010
4:32 pm
And Del, I’m certainly not suggesting this would be reason for being less vigilant.
kayaker 71
January 5th, 2010
4:33 pm
Bosch,
Stay tuned. They were smart enough to defy detection and blow up two pretty large buildings in NY awhile back. My main concern, however, about them being shipped to this country for trial. If given the same rights as American citizens, the evidence obtained from them will not be admissable. If hard evidence is not available the chances of them being convicted are slim to none.
Do you have any doubts about their guilt? Do you want them to pay for their crimes? If so, they belong in a military court of law, tried by a military tribunal, not being given the same rights as Americans. Can you imagine the outcry from the American electorate if they were set free? I am surprised that Bozo and his gang would want to risk the political fallout.
Normal
January 5th, 2010
4:36 pm
Jay said, “He had reportedly been in the restroom for 20 minutes before returning to his seat.”
What? It took him that long to get the stuff out of his undies?
josef nix
January 5th, 2010
4:37 pm
The point of a terror bombing, or attempt, is not just a body count, but to sew terror. A “failed” attempt in better “pr” than a successful one. You get top billing in the media for days following as the bomber is interviewed, charged and then again as he is tried, convicted and imprisoned. We’re still talking about the Shoe Bomber and every time his name is brought up, a little panic comes with it. Secondly, security could easily “cover up” a successful bombing, calling it an accident and no one would be the wiser. No pr value in that. 72 virgins aside, a live martyr is worth more than a dozen dead ones…
Del
January 5th, 2010
4:38 pm
Jay,
Re: your 4:32pm…Good I feel better.
Ridgerunner
January 5th, 2010
4:41 pm
I stand by my 4:24 !
By the way, I think the “Christmas Day” bomber is now known as the “Eunuch” bomber.
Bosch
January 5th, 2010
4:42 pm
Ridgerunner,
I have to admit – your 4:24 – I agree with you.
LA
January 5th, 2010
4:43 pm
An even bigger question is, why doesn’t the CIA just take the guy and shoot him in the head?
Normal
January 5th, 2010
4:44 pm
Kayaker, I think you miss the point here. The last Administration called it “the war on terrorism”, but they are not an Army, they are no more than a street gang from South Chicago, or East L.A. Trying them by Military Tribunal would only validify them as “Warriors of Allah”.
Jihad had means many thing and “holy war” is just one of the definitions. Try them in our criminal justice courts as the thugs they are.
Ridgerunner
January 5th, 2010
4:44 pm
Bosch:
I’m telling you, I think we could solve this whole problem if everyone could see there was a little piglet on board each flight …….. in a cage right up front.
Del
January 5th, 2010
4:44 pm
Normal,
Maybe he was sitting there dreaming about the 72 virgins and got the detonating cord wet.
kayaker 71
January 5th, 2010
4:45 pm
LA,
You know why. “Then the terrorists would win”.
md
January 5th, 2010
4:45 pm
As I understand it, he was seated over the wing, i.e. Fuel Tank. These guys weren’t planning to just blow a hole somewhere, as a plane can decend to a safe alttitude and still fly with a hole in it (see Aloha Airlines flight 243).
Odds are they wanted to make sure the plane was coming down, and blowing up the fuel tank would be the best bet.
LA
January 5th, 2010
4:46 pm
Jay, months before 911, the terrorists did a dry run to see how things would go.
Maybe this was all a dry run in order to see how things will go for the real attack that is to come.
Bosch
January 5th, 2010
4:46 pm
Ridgerunner,
Are you by any chance a reincarnated Gandalf?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Del! @ 4:44.
Normal
January 5th, 2010
4:46 pm
Del, Maybe! But can you imagine it? 72 virgins…and with my luck, all reluctant!