Eleven months of driving a hard road has taken the sheen off Obama
Clearly, the impact of a tough economy, two wars, an exploding national debt and the normal wear and tear of politics have had an effect on President Obama’s job-approval rating. After 11 months in office, that new-car smell is gone, you might say.
The question, of course, is what happens next. Obama has a minimum of three more years and more likely seven years in office (your mileage may vary). For comparison’s sake, President Bush left office with a job-approval rating in the mid-20s.
Ronald Reagan's job approval: Yearly averages, 1981-1988. Source: Gallup
A more interesting comparison might be with Ronald Reagan, who by GOP accounts was the most successful American president since FDR or perhaps even Lincoln. By the end of his first year in office, Reagan’s job-approval rating as measured by Gallup stood at 49 percent, about where Obama’s number is today in the Pollster.com composite. (Gallup has it at 51 percent).
In the ‘82 off-year elections, the GOP lost 25 seats in the House. In early 1983, Reagan’s job approval numbers hit their all-time low of 35 percent,as measured by Gallup. And in 1984, he was re-elected in an historic landslide over Walter Mondale, beating him by 18 percentage points and carrying every state but Mondale’s native Minnesota.
Of course, that doesn’t mean Obama is destined for the same kind of path. Events affect presidents more than presidents affect events. It’s just a reminder that such poll numbers don’t do much but give us something other than Glenn Richardson to talk about on a cold Friday morning in early December.
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24 comments Add your comment
josef nix
December 4th, 2009
7:01 am
Got up and got this one up early after last night, eh Jay?
Good job! Wish I could be here for it!
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm!
December 4th, 2009
7:05 am
I don’t know if I would have used “sheen” but whatever.
Isn’t it funny that no matter how low the polls show a Republican, they usually win their elections by a “landslide?”
Normal
December 4th, 2009
7:06 am
POSTED FROM ABOVE…
Normal
December 4th, 2009
7:04 am
TO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. DO NOT ALLO9W PRESIDENT OBAMA TO ESCALATE AFGHANISTAN. BRING OUR TROOPS HOME NOW!
Mrs. Godzilla
December 4th, 2009
7:15 am
Similar numbers to Saint Ronnie?
Saint Barack?
I wouldn’t be at all surprised.
jopar
December 4th, 2009
7:15 am
Firstly, not all polls show what yours does.Reasearch 2000 52%favorable and 44%not has been relatively stable.My gripe is with characterizing Reagan as as “the most successful…”
When you take every restriction you can off business, lower taxes on the rich, etc. you get a wonderful increase in production and jobs that create high poll results.
We are now experiencing the long term effects of this type government.
The worst inherent flaw in our system is that it rewards short term thinking when we need just the opposite.
Rightwing Troll
December 4th, 2009
7:16 am
I’d ask Andy for an example of that other than Reagan, but I know he has none.
IMHO, Obama has done it to himself as much as anything, either that or those who set his agenda have done it. The Healthcare debate can be defined in war terms as his Iraq. We didn’t need to do it right this second, he should’ve taken care of George Bush’s economy first and dispatched W’s recession, then he would have had the political capital and focus of attention needed, to address Healthcare.
But much like Glen Richardson, he took up with every shiny tart, or pet issue, he could because he feels he has the power to be able to do it (metaphorically speaking…) and get away with it.
jopar
December 4th, 2009
7:20 am
Responding to RWTroll, if he hadn’t taken healthcare on immediately it might not have happened at all, and it is the single largest threat to long term business growth.
Mrs. Godzilla
December 4th, 2009
7:28 am
jopar
bingo!
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm!
December 4th, 2009
7:32 am
Good morning, stalker- If you go back and look at the pre election polls for 2004, you will find that John Kerry was fixing to put a hurtin on Bushie and those stayed the same right up until the people actually voted.
And of course, Bush won.
Rightwing Troll
December 4th, 2009
7:41 am
Andy the nut sack, Yah and it was a real landslide wasn’t it???
Jopar, I run a small businiess, healthcare hasn’t affected me one way or the other for 8 years, now as a result of this debacle, it might… While the prospect of that doesn’t really bother me too much, the idea that we’ve spent almost a year wasting time and energy on it, while we have W’s economy to deal with and while we have W’s unsuccessful wars to wind down, now that bother’s me…
Mrs. Godzilla
December 4th, 2009
7:50 am
RT
Healthcare costs haven’t been an issue for the either Mr. G’s or my buisness…..but we know it ain’t all about us.
“The fact remains though, as the President said again last week, “[T]here are some people who are making the argument that, well, you can’t do anything about health care because the economy comes first. They don’t understand that health care is the biggest component of our economy and, when it’s broken, that affects everything.” Too many of these naysayers are members of Congress who see only short term deficit figures and fail to grasp the unparalleled long-term impact comprehensive health care reform will have on our economy and the federal budget.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-kirsch/fix-health-care-to-fix-ou_b_168190.html
From a “me” perspective….as the economy has improved in the last few months so has my business.
Paul
December 4th, 2009
8:47 am
Frankly, given the problems with which he was greeted and the high (dare I say unrealistic) expectations so many seemed to have, I’m surprised his approval rating’s as high as it is. Still seems to me his core is giving him a lot of benefit of the doubt while the independents are not nearly so patient.
Saw a good political cartoon this morning – Republican elephant in the boxing ring punching himself while the (Democratic) referee was yelling ‘hey, save some for me!.’
That scenario may be Pres Obama’s greatest gift for reelection.
Paul
December 4th, 2009
8:50 am
Morning, Mrs. Godzilla!
Saw a report this morning that 20 percent of companies offering Cadillac health plans said they’d drop’em entirely if taxing them becomes law. Ouch.
And it looks like Dems have pushed through the half a trillion in Medicare cuts which Reps continued to oppose. (Now do you believe it, Taxpayer?)
This is an issue where Democrats are playing for some pretty high stakes. And I’m not encouraged.
david wayne osedach
December 4th, 2009
8:51 am
Obama wasn’t looking for any help when he promised 3.5 million new jobs a year ago.
Mrs. Godzilla
December 4th, 2009
9:00 am
Paul
What exactly is considered a cadillac healthcare plan and how many Americans have them?
Can you also fill me in on what you see as the problems with those Medicare cuts? I did see this:
“Most importantly, the legislation does not reduce any guaranteed Medicare benefits,” A. Barry Rand, the AARP’s CEO, said in a letter to senators.
Teach me.
Del
December 4th, 2009
9:01 am
The problem for Obama is the new car smell is becoming more analogous to that of an outhouse in great need of sanitizing. The incompetence perception is also becoming prevalent among voters including moderate Democrats.Reagan, like him or not maintained a charismatic image of leadership. Obama enjoyed a charismatic image throughout the campaign which began wearing off rapidly over the last six months. He’s desperately trying to recover that image by employing a continuing campaign strategy. Americans are seeing through it and it’s now backfiring. He may be another one term Jimmy Carter or George H. W. Bush.
Wyld Byll Hyltnyr
December 4th, 2009
9:09 am
Jay, Jay, Jay, my poor, sweet, innocent, naive, Jay -
“Eleven months of driving a hard road has taken the sheen off Obama”
Hardly, Americans knew little of him when he was elected, so be became a blank canvas upon which everyone could project his individual desires. Now that he can be judged by his actions (rather than “jess wordts” Americans do not like what they see. It is now clear that his will be a failed, one-term presidency. The only issue now is how much damage our nation will take by having an indecisive lame duck president for more than three years.
Joey
December 4th, 2009
9:11 am
Eleven months of hard reckless driving on a difficult road has taking the sheen off Obama.
Jay: There was an error in your headline.
TnGelding
December 4th, 2009
9:22 am
Wyld Byll Hyltnyr
December 4th, 2009
9:09 am
Joey
December 4th, 2009
9:11 am
In your dreams. The future is now!
http://blogs.ajc.com/jay-bookman-blog/2009/12/04/2866/#comment-178372
Paul
December 4th, 2009
9:27 am
Mrs. Godzilla
I’ll keep this general as I’ve family coming in, I’ve gotta go check out a car and on top of that, work awaits.
Cadillac plans, as I understand it, were defined as being worth more than $n. I believe it was around $11k for singles and $20k for families. I think the tax would apply to the employeer. A surprising number of the plans are held by union members who will argue they gave up wage increases for these plans (a smart move at the time).
Calif and Texas Physicians Associations came out in opposition to the health plan as proposed. I have not yet found specifics of the savings, just general ‘cuts and savings’ by program, which seems to be reductions in reimbursements to doctors and hospitals. To say that won’t affect availability of care is nuts. A good part of the cut (about a fifth?) is for the Medicare Advantage program. I think Dems have a good case for reigning that in and Reps are playing politics. One of the hallmarks of Medicare is equal treatment. This program seems to be the typical example of aiming to correct a deficiency and instead ending up with more than the folks in the regular position.
Politically, I think it’s a difficult position for Democrats. A key constituency are seniors, and most of them are savvy enough and have seen enough of government to know that funding a program through ‘proposed cuts’ doesn’t happen, which means the deficit balloons, or if it were to happen, the ’saving’ will have some unintended (or known, but cynically downplayed) consequences.
Hope this helps. If anybody has other hard information I’d appreciate it.
Joey
December 4th, 2009
9:34 am
TnGelding:
Writing that the future is now is a statement that: If you (who ever you is) do not accomplish your goal now, you will lose the ability to accomplish said goal.
So….
The present is now.
The future is out there. We have the time, the opportunity and the responsibility to influence that future.
Mrs. Godzilla
December 4th, 2009
9:43 am
“We have the time, the opportunity and the responsibility to influence that future.”
And thanks Heavens we have President Barack Obama to do just that!
Dave R.
December 4th, 2009
10:35 am
I think it is telling that the politically-operated boards of both the AARP and the AMA have come out in favor of Hope & Change’s health care disaster, but the two largest associations of real doctors – Texas and California – have come out against it.
The almighty polls that Dems relied on to push their version of health care reform all show the public against their plans, including single payer, but you don’t hear them pushing poll numbers anymore – do you?
The ability of politicians on both sides – but mainly the left – to push through programs they know are wrong (climate change, health care reform, stimulus) is astounding.
Mr Right
December 4th, 2009
11:51 am
Obama has most likely 7 more years? WOW I don’t think this country can take that many more years of his policies. It’s going to be bad enough after 4 years. This man is bent on trying to make America into a country we won’t recognize anymore.