The phenomenon of sprawl has passed into history
Sprawl is dead. It’s roadkill, you might say.
And unlike movie zombies, the growth phenomenon that once defined the metro region is not going to spring back to life. In Atlanta and most other places, the sprawl era that began with post-war Levittown, N.Y. and eventually redrew the American landscape and mindset has now passed into history.
Now, that doesn’t mean that the suburbs created by sprawl will disappear or even decline. To the contrary, for many they remain great places to live and raise a family, and that won’t change. Once the economy recovers, a lot of suburbs will resume growth through infill development and increased density, although they will become increasingly urban in the process.
However, the conversion of vast tracts of far-flung greenspace into suburban housing — that has ended. The larger postwar demographic trends, economics, lifestyle choices and government subsidies that drove that trend have all petered out, and without them, large-scale sprawl will end as well.
The evidence of that transition is stark. Today, if you fly over or drive around the outer suburbs of metro Atlanta, you’ll find tens of thousands of vacant lots, cleared and ready for houses. Many of those empty lots — some complete with paved roads, sewer, water and utilities — will never see development and are destined to be reclaimed by nature, reverting to pasture or forest.
The industry that generated those lots has vanished as well, never to reassemble in such numbers. The mortgage brokers who stood ready to close loans in those subdivisions are instead collecting unemployment or selling shoes. The developers who bet their futures on those home lots have gone bankrupt, and the Hispanic carpenters and laborers who would have built them have gone, disappearing as quickly and mysteriously as they appeared. Many of the commercial banks that financed those projects have also gone under.
Now, it’s tempting to dismiss all that change as the temporary result of a deep recession. If that were true, the sprawl industry would likely reassemble once the economy picks up. But it won’t.
Even before the recession hit, the sprawl model of growth was showing serious strains in metro Atlanta. Admittedly, it was hard to see at the time. The U.S. Census Bureau, for example, reported that from July 2000 to July 2008, six of the 15 fastest growing counties in the country could be found here in the 28-county Atlanta metro region.
By the end of that eight-year stretch, however, the Atlanta boom had cooled considerably. By July 2007 to July 2008, none of the 15 fastest growing counties were in metro Atlanta. The only two metro counties to even make the top 50 were Forsyth at No. 16 and Paulding at No. 40.
The boom machine, however, was too busy making money to notice that slackening of demand. By July 2007, almost 240,000 lots were coming on line for development in north metro Atlanta alone, according to Metrostudy, a real-estate data and analysis company. This, in a market where annual new home sales barely averaged 30,000, even during the boom.
What accounts for that shift? A lot of it is the free market at work. Younger people forming households of their own are more interested in urban living than in recreating their suburban upbringing, and many older Americans are also looking to downsize their living arrangements. The rising cost of commuting and energy to heat and cool large homes are having an impact as well.
Government’s declining ability to subsidize farflung suburbia has also had an effect. In Atlanta and other areas, the transportation infrastructure needed to shorten commuting times and thus extend the suburban model still farther from the core is no longer practical or affordable; it has become a struggle just to service already developed areas.
For a while, the flood of easy mortgages, cheap immigrant labor and big profits disguised those profound changes taking place nationally. Here in metro Atlanta, it disguised something else as well.
Long before the recession began, the metro region’s job-creating capacity was already more myth than reality. A lot of people were moving here, but jobs weren’t. According to Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University, by 2008 the 28-county area had produced an average of just 1,400 premium-paying jobs a year since 2002.
No doubt many of those jobs were generated by the sprawl industry, the result of a boom that we now know to have been based on a false foundation. Metro Atlanta’s economic challenges, in other words, aren’t likely to end when this terrible recession does.
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234 comments Add your comment
Mrs. Godzilla
November 20th, 2009
7:39 am
May it rest in peace!
stands for decibels
November 20th, 2009
7:40 am
Shorter wingnut response:
“Why do you want to force me to live in Manhattan with Those People, Komrade Jay?”
stands for decibels
November 20th, 2009
7:41 am
I know, my post @ 7.40 was a tad hateful.
Prove me wrong, conservatives. Please.
AmVet
November 20th, 2009
7:42 am
Yeah, the Atlanta exurbs are a wasteland. I’m sure as hell glad I don’t live in Cumming and face an hour plus commute to work and an hour and a half drive home EVERY day and night.
That’s unless I leave ho me at 5AM to beat the “rush” and then work until 7:30 to go start home.
Fools…
No wonder road rage is so popular here.
The idiot boy in Jesus’ clothes is at it again.
And some of you morons probably voted for this clown, er excuse me, battle hardened US Marine. (I thought lying was one of those ten non nos…)
“Islam is a violent, I was going to say religion, but it’s not a religion. It’s a political system,” Robertson said. “It’s a violent political system bent on the overthrow of the governments of the world and world domination. That is the ultimate aim.”
jt
November 20th, 2009
7:45 am
“Why do you want to force me to live ITP with Those People, Komrade Jay?”
Normal
November 20th, 2009
7:46 am
Jay, you paint a bleak picture, but I see the truth in it. Atlanta in particular and Georgia are going to need that “responsible leadership”. Wonder where they will find that?
stands for decibels
November 20th, 2009
7:49 am
“Why do you want to force me to live ITP with Those People, Komrade Jay?”
heh. You know, after I posted it, I was thinking that this approach would’ve been more effective. Kudos.
(However, being that I’m a longtime Atrios fan, the notion that any discussion of sprawl inevitably leads to someone griping that we’ll all be forced to live in Manhattan has become a kind of running joke/Godwin kinda deal.)
Jay used blogroll to Atrios, but I guess he either got tired of it or found it irksome–he never said why he dropped the link, though.
stands for decibels
November 20th, 2009
7:50 am
The shorthand over at Atrios for such discussion is to simply refer to any somewhat densely populated place as an “urban hellhole.” Also.
AmVet
November 20th, 2009
7:50 am
Normal, are you insinuating that Pray for Rain was not a model leader in the Republican style?
After all, he brought us….and he resolved that….and he implemented….
Oh yeah, the Go Fish campaign!
A paragon of accomplishments, that one…
Normal
November 20th, 2009
7:54 am
AmVet: no, what I was saying is that Pray For Rain WAS the role model in the Republican style…Thus the problem.
Boogers for the Children Fund
November 20th, 2009
7:55 am
Well thats good to hear!! Lower demand should bring lower prices and Booger is planning no less than 50% down payment for his Mini-Castle!
ITP is pretty much a hellhole except for N Fulton.
On another note…Apparently the medical community motorhead have viewed the issue of cervical exams incorrectly for years as they did with mammograms. OR is it a little arm twisting from the kenyan?
Well regardless this is just a small taste of thing to come with ObaMaoCare.
This whole ObaMaoCare issue should be scrapped. It will cost far more than its worth and raise taxes on everyone. And my profits are more important than your children, health and happiness.
Get a job ya squirrels.
Normal
November 20th, 2009
7:55 am
Chill out Repubs…that was a joke. This thing is bigger than Sonny…
Nothing Is Free
November 20th, 2009
7:55 am
stands for decibels
**I know, my post @ 7.40 was a tad hateful. Prove me wrong, conservatives. Please.**
I can’t prove you wrong, but I would add that it was also close minded and really, really ignorant, but I do agree that it was also hateful. But hey, it’s not like you have any credibility here, anyway. Look at how dumb your first post was.
stands for decibels
November 20th, 2009
7:57 am
ITP is pretty much a hellhole
Thanks, Booger Lemonade–I knew I could count on you.
Peadawg
November 20th, 2009
7:57 am
Normal, a lot of people were looking for leadership from Obama, but sadly he hasn’t accomplished much of anything since he’s been in office. Troops are still overseas and jobs are still a rare thing to come by.
Mrs. Godzilla
November 20th, 2009
7:57 am
And they’re off………….
Normal
November 20th, 2009
7:59 am
Peadawg…I can’t fault you there. You are absolutely right.
Nothing Is Free
November 20th, 2009
7:59 am
Normal
More governmental leadership? How about if we all man-up and start trying to move away from the government fixing (destroying) everything?
And what is the problem with praying for rain? Would it had been better if Purdue would have checked an astrology chart? You guys need top open up those minds a little. Some folks DO think differently than you.
Normal
November 20th, 2009
8:00 am
Good Morning Mrs G. I hope you are happy and well.
Paul
November 20th, 2009
8:00 am
The people begin a change and it’s well underway. How long for the politicians to recognize it, then appropriately modify it?
And how long for the voters to change the clueless politicians?
Normal
November 20th, 2009
8:01 am
NIF, thank you for that sermon, when do you pass out the bread and wine?
Boogers for the Children Fund
November 20th, 2009
8:01 am
More taxes for you…
here’s a list of some of the new taxes that are in the 2074 page senate health care bill. wonder how many more there are in this bill and the house 1900+ pages. these taxes will take effect on passage but the health care will not begin until 2014. does anyone actually believe that this can work for the benefit of the American people? the egos of the people who came up with this piece of garbage is amazing. they should be booted out in the street asap.
Individual Mandate Tax = Income Surtax
Employer Mandate Tax
40% tax on “Cadillac” Health Insurance plans
Medicine Cabinet Tax (has to do with HSA/FSA accts)
HSA withdrawal tax hike
Excise tax on charitable hospitals
Tax on Innovator Drug companies
Tax on Medical Device Manufacturers
Tax on Cosmetic Surgery
Higher Payroll Tax on Upper Income
Tax on Health Insurers
Elimination of tax deductions for employer provided retirement drug coverage
Hike in Medicare Payroll Taxes
Blue Cross/Blue Shield Tax hike
And remember…MY PROFITS are more important than your children, your health and/or happiness.
Nothing Is Free
November 20th, 2009
8:02 am
JAy
You may accept that America is in a decline. And as long as Washington is like it is now, we are declining, but Obama only has three more years, so we will be fine after that.
Paul
November 20th, 2009
8:02 am
G’morning, Mrs. Godzilla
My, my, you were up early this morning! All excited about the New Moon opening?
Normal
November 20th, 2009
8:02 am
And remember…MY PROFITS are more important than your children, your health and/or happiness.
…and that says it all…
Nothing Is Free
November 20th, 2009
8:03 am
Normal
Just trying to convince you to be more accepting of others, Pal. Why can’t we all just get along?
Paul
November 20th, 2009
8:04 am
Boogers 8:01
Shouldn’t Conservatives thank Liberals for following conservative philosophy (not necessarily conservative actions) by paying for services, rather than implementing services and funding them by going in debt?
Mrs. Godzilla
November 20th, 2009
8:04 am
Morning Normal…..
Can we have Fruday night steak night in Normalville like we do
in Lizardton?
Just heard CNN talk about the Afghan War tax…….
Mrs. Godzilla
November 20th, 2009
8:05 am
Friday Friday Friday
Boogers for the Children Fund
November 20th, 2009
8:06 am
Normal
November 20th, 2009
8:02 am
Says all you need to know, brother.
Dont be such a sour-puss. Invest in the market and make some of YOUR OWN PROFITS. Or are ya too scared…hmm.
RISK/REWARD!!
PS…MY PROFITS are more important than your children, your health and/or happiness.
Normal
November 20th, 2009
8:07 am
WHAT??!! No wine???
From all of the things my Christian relatives told me, the one I remember most is God only answers prayers given in private and on your knees. Sonny’s praying was a political shot, no more, no less. He just became a bigger a–hole at that time.
Mrs. Godzilla
November 20th, 2009
8:08 am
Paul
Always up early…I am a morning person.
I fade fast after 9 pm.
If they can get Bela Lugosi to reprise his role I might be at least
curious……otherwise it’s a Jason movie with bigger teeth.
Nothing Is Free
November 20th, 2009
8:08 am
Normal
**And remember…MY PROFITS are more important than your children, your health and/or happiness.**
Who says that? Conservatives actually HAVE their children. My profits fed my children and I paid taxes that feed other children and my Church feeds lots and lots of children.
Man, you gotta open up that mind and start looking around. Conservatives are the ones that are concerned with children. Red and yellow black or white, they are precious in his sight . .
And that’s the old version that isn’t talking about Obama.
Normal
November 20th, 2009
8:09 am
Mrs. G. It’s your store…go for it. What’s this Afghan war tax?
jt
November 20th, 2009
8:09 am
Speaking of taxes. Good thing we can rely on a “real” news source.
From Taranto———
Number of AP reporters assigned to story:
• ObamaCare bills: 2
• Palin book: 11
Number of pages in document being covered:
• ObamaCare bills: 4,064
• Palin book: 432
Number of pages per AP reporter:
• ObamaCare bill: 2,032
• Palin book: 39.3
Boogers for the Children Fund
November 20th, 2009
8:10 am
Paul
This will Break the bank. The kenyan is such a dullard. Your taxes are gonna be raised. So take that to the bank also.
PS…MY PROFITS are more important than your children, your health and/or happiness.
OH…there’s your sign.
Nothing Is Free
November 20th, 2009
8:12 am
Narmal
No wine? It’s 8 oclock in the morning. How about some Tropicana Pure Premium?
And see, the deal about your family and they way they pray is what I am talking about. I was taught to pray whenever and where ever necessary. And please don’t tell me that a politician was political. Or is that just for Democrats?
mike
November 20th, 2009
8:12 am
“**I know, my post @ 7.40 was a tad hateful. Prove me wrong, conservatives. Please.**”
So a hateful individual is demanding that 40% of the country “prove” that they are not hateful.
Makes sense to me.
Normal
November 20th, 2009
8:12 am
NIF, Booger said that and I was commenting on it. Booger’s Scrooge. He believes in profits over people. I don’t.
And Booger, I’ve done quite well away from the market and I wasn’t hurt when it fell. I was tempted to invest when it was lower, but my old fashioned savings plan is still working just fine. But thank you for your concern for my profits…
Paul
November 20th, 2009
8:12 am
jt 8:09
If you’re a ‘news’ organization, ya’ gotta’ get your priorities straight.
And to know the difference between cheerleading, attacking and…. reporting?
stands for decibels
November 20th, 2009
8:14 am
Shouldn’t Conservatives thank Liberals for following conservative philosophy (not necessarily conservative actions) by paying for services, rather than implementing services and funding them by going in debt?
Paul, as I was listening to a discussion of one particular part of the healthcare bill — the establishment of a more autonomous role for MedPac — and it got me wondering something very similar. Actual fiscal conservatives–of which I like to think of myself as a member–have been talking about real entitlement reform for forever.
Well, empowering an autonomous organization the power to actually control costs, instead of leaving it up to the tender mercies of whatever lobbying group manages to grab the ear of whatever Congresscritter–that seems like pretty major-league entitlement reform to me.
And if what I’d heard was correct, it’s something that the GOP used to support.
here’s a bit about the panel — and no, it is not specific to what’s in the Senate bill, but it will give an idea of what’s being attempted, and what likely will emerge from legislation:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/14/health/policy/14medpac.html
mike
November 20th, 2009
8:14 am
jt –
Saw that.Taranto is great. I thought his mention of this story from Obama’s trip to China was funny:
“”I’m a big supporter of non-censorship,” Obama said. “I recognize that different countries have different traditions. I can tell you that in the United States, the fact that we have free Internet–or unrestricted Internet access–is a source of strength, and I think should be encouraged.” . . .
Chinese bloggers who saw it were grateful that he addressed censorship, but many zeroed in on what they considered Obama’s waffling language.
“Learn English from Obama: Instead of saying ‘I want to eat,’ say ‘I am a big supporter of non-hunger,’ ” Wang Pei, a writer based in eastern China’s Hangzhou, twittered on Tuesday.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704204304574545733826430664.html
Paul
November 20th, 2009
8:15 am
Boogers
My point was, Democrats proposed a new program and they also proposed taxes to pay for it, {something we did not regularly see when Republicans had the Congress and Presidency). Given that Republicans portray themselves as the party of fiscal conservatism, which includes paying for that which you do, my question was, shouldn’t Conservatives applaud Liberals for saying “this is what we want to do and this is how we will pay for it,” not condemn them?
Mrs. Godzilla
November 20th, 2009
8:16 am
Normal
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/68775-dem-lawmakers-introduce-afghan-war-surtax
Paul
November 20th, 2009
8:18 am
sfd 8:14
Thanks for the link. Everything is so topsy-turvy ya’ gotta’ pretty much toss out the old views of who believes what and who does what, eh?
@@
November 20th, 2009
8:20 am
Infill? Is that when somebody buys an $850,000 home on a half acre lot, only to tear the house down to build a nicer one? Someone I know just did that.
Talk about money to burn!!?!!
Timing’s right for me. 5 or 6 more years….I’ll be looking at Sweet Home (south) Alabama. 40 acres and a horse or two.
Paul
November 20th, 2009
8:21 am
mike 8:14
[[“”I’m a big supporter of non-censorship,” Obama said.]]
I guess that’s why Pres Obama backed off from his administration’s shunning of Fox News and granted them an interview when he was on his China trip, so some Chinese student at the town hall didn’t say “Mr. President, if you support non-censorship then why does your administration seek to diminish the voices of those who disagree with you?”
Nothing Is Free
November 20th, 2009
8:23 am
Normal
I was just giving you a hard time. They screwed up this song with the video, but here . . .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUZavcU5hlA
chuck allison
November 20th, 2009
8:23 am
As I look out over the beautiful hay field in front of my house with the Canadian geese, the silos, the beautiful pine and hardwood forests, and the starry nights, I can only hope you are correct and that the subdivisions will never venture out here. Other folks can stay in their filthy, crime-ridden cities if they wish, and rural Americans can enjoy the good life. We will send you a post card, Jay.
Normal
November 20th, 2009
8:24 am
Mrs. G @ 08:16
Interesting. I see no Republicans are supporting it, so do you think that this might be a Democrat ploy to end the war quicker. Nothing gets people against a problem than the threat of higher taxes…