Weak as it is, this economic uptick may be for real
I’ve had my doubts about whether the economic uptick, however slight it might be, was even real. But those doubts are gradually diminishing. Retail sales were up slightly last month, and today comes news that initial unemployment claims fell by 20,000 last week. (See chart below of four-week average of initial claims).
As of 10:30 a.m., the Dow was up about 140 points on the news.
As the folks at Calculated Risk wisely point out, this “better” number still means that 512,000 of our fellow Americans had to file for unemployment benefits last week, which is dismayingly high. But at least it’s fewer than the 532,000 who had filed a week earlier, and considerably fewer than the 648,000 a week who were filing in April.
The next test will be whether this uptick can be sustained. And even if it is, the improvements are spotty at best. Here in Georgia, for example, initial filings for the week ending Oct. 24 rose rather than fell, increasing by 2,549. State officials attribute the increase to “layoffs in the construction, trade, and manufacturing industries.”
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160 comments Add your comment
Peadawg
November 5th, 2009
10:46 am
I know it’s a “lagging indicator”, but until we can go, say a full month, w/out a front page story about unemployment rising, then I’ll believe the economy is on an “uptick”.
Midori
November 5th, 2009
10:51 am
good news.
very good news.
watch the Negative Nellies poo-poo it.
Oops!!
too late!!!
jewcowboy
November 5th, 2009
10:51 am
Peadawg,
In Atlanta, you will not see that for quite a while. With the commercial building projects started 1 or 2 years ago starting to wrap up, and the glut of commercial space available meaning no more will start for at least 1 or 2 years, you will see more unemployment in Atlanta in the coming months not less.
tscali
November 5th, 2009
10:52 am
i’ll fix your headline, bookman.
“Weak as it is, this economic uptick may be for news reel only”
Midori
November 5th, 2009
10:55 am
Hi there JewCowboy
jconservative
November 5th, 2009
10:56 am
I go with those who say another downturn before a permanent turn to the positive side.
Turd Ferguson
November 5th, 2009
10:59 am
Cautiously optimistic. However, Warren Buffets RR purchase is definitely a good sign…A Great sign, if you will.
Listen up people…you look Maaauuuvalus. Hear me now and believe me later…buy some stock and remember you only feel as good as you look, yes thats right and you know what it is I am saying.
Normal
November 5th, 2009
11:00 am
Jewcowboy, I sure do hope you are wrong. I have a lot of builders in my family.
Maybe Sonny should start those dams we are going to need. Wait…does Georgia have any money?
jewcowboy
November 5th, 2009
11:00 am
Howdy Midori!
Are you enjoying the day?
Mrs. Godzilla
November 5th, 2009
11:04 am
I’m feeling it……and it feels good.
The job is busier, both family businesses picking up.
I hope it improves for everybody else soon.
AmVet
November 5th, 2009
11:07 am
Turd, I was going to write the same thing. If the Oracle of Omaha is cautiously optimistic, I might be too…
But then again, I guess I could just be an idiot and watch Jim Cramer or any of those other economic Einsteins on CNBC…
mm
November 5th, 2009
11:11 am
And the people who pulled out of the stock market are looking dumber by the minute.
Midori
November 5th, 2009
11:13 am
JewCowboy,
it is so beautiful outside.
How can I not enjoy it?
I’d like to talk a long walk.
This is absolutely the BEST time of year
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm!
November 5th, 2009
11:16 am
Yeah, especially since stores are stocking up for Christmas, just like they do every year.
Evil capitalist consumers, ew!!!!
Turd Ferguson
November 5th, 2009
11:17 am
AmVet
November 5th, 2009
11:07 am
Ya, that Cramer. If one does the opposite of his recommendations then one stands a good chance of making some gravy. Follow his advice to the letter and be broke in 9 months or less.
Turd Ferguson
November 5th, 2009
11:17 am
Midori…let me rephrase that for you…
I’d like to talk a long walk off a short pier.
ByteMe
November 5th, 2009
11:18 am
jconservative is correct: bear markets need three major pull-backs to end. We’ve had two. One more to go before the skies clear.
Meanwhile, a slight reduction in unemployment claims this time of year is not really much to talk about. There’s Christmas goods to stock the stores and that often leads to a slight uptick in shorter-term full-time employment around this time. Let’s talk again if the numbers stay good into February.
Marsh
November 5th, 2009
11:20 am
Uh-oh, this is really going to p!ss the neocons off!
I smell a tea party coming on…
F. Sinkwich
November 5th, 2009
11:20 am
I’m surprised, Jay, that you didn’t give any credit for the “uptick” to the policies of Chairman O. I’m glad in this small way you acknowledge that he doesn’t deserve any.
P. Harvey
November 5th, 2009
11:28 am
The 4-week moving average for ongoing claims fell by 79,500 to 5,886,250.
But the slide may signal that more filers are dropping off those rolls into extended benefits.
Continuing claims reflect people filing each week after their initial claim until the end of their standard benefits, which usually last 26 weeks.
The figures do not include those who have moved to state or federal extensions, or people whose benefits have expired.
We don’t need no stinking consumers.
getalife
November 5th, 2009
11:29 am
Obama saved the bush depression and time to regulate.
stands for decibels
November 5th, 2009
11:30 am
Minor thing, Jay, but your Calculated Risk link just hits the homepage. You want people to go here:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html
Paul
November 5th, 2009
11:34 am
getalife
Regulate?!!? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
AP just did an audit of Cash for Clunkers. The party of regulation and oversight brought us… nada.
Regarding the topic: it would seem the corner’s been turned, cautious optimism is taking hold.
So: do we still need to spend ALL of the, what, 90 percent stim hundreds of millions that haven’t been spent yet? Dem leadership says “Absolutely yes, yes yes. We HAVE to spend it all.” Even though we’ve now had time to document the hundreds of millions of … dubious projects.
Dems could score points and broaden appeal by at least appearing to make the effort to cut pork. But they won’t even do that. Ideology’s a tough straitjacket.
Zedd
November 5th, 2009
11:34 am
Recovery will continue to be judged by everday Americans in #’s of unemployed and jobs available. And that’s the bottom line…..
stands for decibels
November 5th, 2009
11:35 am
But the slide may signal that more filers are dropping off those rolls into extended benefits.
conversely… I heard some wag on NPR’s Marketplace this am saying that an uptick in unemployment isn’t always a bad sign, that there are during any nasty recession, people who had gone off the grid, so to speak, who feel emboldened to start seeking work again.
How that gets calculated into all the state dept.s of labor stats, though, I don’t pretend to know.
Nothing Is Free
November 5th, 2009
11:35 am
Two days ago, most on here was celebrating the article about the fall of the capitalistic system.
But strangely enough, now they seem to be celebrating the recovery of the capitalistic system.
Being a liberal must be really hard. How do you know what to support, day by day?
USinUK
November 5th, 2009
11:36 am
Paul –
“So: do we still need to spend ALL of the, what, 90 percent stim hundreds of millions that haven’t been spent yet?”
if I may refer you to Japan in the 1990s … removing stimulus too soon is a bad idea.
stands for decibels
November 5th, 2009
11:40 am
AP just did an audit of Cash for Clunkers.
Got a link to that, Paul? Because all I’ve seen so far is something from Edmunds some days back, that had used some (allegedly) weird auditing methodology.
only thing the AP shows on my Google is this:
AP IMPACT: New ‘clunker’ data reveal pickup-for-pickup swaps most common under rebate program
WASHINGTON (AP) — The most common deals under the government’s $3 billion Cash for Clunkers program, aimed at putting more fuel-efficient cars on the road, replaced old Ford or Chevrolet pickups with new ones that got only marginally better gas mileage, according to an analysis of new federal data by The Associated Press.
The single most common swap — which occurred more than 8,200 times — involved Ford F150 pickup owners who took advantage of a government rebate to trade their old trucks for new Ford F150s. They were 17 times more likely to buy a new F150 than, say, a Toyota Prius. The fuel economy for the new trucks ranged from 15 mpg to 17 mpg based on engine size and other factors, an improvement of just 1 mpg to 3 mpg over the clunkers.
Owners of thousands more large old Chevrolet and Dodge pickups bought new Silverado and Ram trucks, also with only barely improved mileage in the middle teens, according to AP’s analysis of sales of $15.2 billion worth of vehicles at nearly 19,000 car dealerships in every state. Those deals helped the Ford F150 and Chevy Silverado — along with Ford’s Escape midsize SUV — climb into the Top 10 most-popular vehicles purchased with the government rebates. The most common truck-for-truck and truck-for-SUV deals totaled at least $911 million.
In scores of deals, the government reported spending a total of $562,500 in rebates for new cars and trucks that got worse or the same mileage as the trade-ins — in apparent violation of the program’s requirements. The government said it is investigating those reports and said in some cases they were probably entered incorrectly by dealers or based on outdated fuel economy figures.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is still reviewing the reports, and any dealers that submitted invalid trade-ins will be directed to return the government rebate, spokesman Eric Bolton said Wednesday.
Gov Option Done Deal!
November 5th, 2009
11:43 am
Quick Bookman Break:
All you GOPster extremists who were touting the often inadequate CBO (agency you never heard of until a few weeks ago anyway) that colossaly underestimated that only 6 million would choose a viable public plan–the CBO says that your GOP plan absolutely SUCKS! (or if you want formal professional rhetoric CBO says your plan is egregiously inadequate and incompetent):
From David Dayen:
Republican Health Care Plan Amended to House Bill Evaluated as Egregiously Terrible–and it would cover a small fraction of Americans–Welcome to the “New GOP” Baby!
The CBO did a preliminary estimate of the Republican amendment to the House health care bill. There are now hard numbers to compare between the Democratic and Republican notions for health care.
CBO plan linked here kids:
http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/107xx/doc10705/hr3962amendmentBoehner.pdf
Coverage:
Democrats – 36 million more covered by 2019,
96% of US covered;
Republicans – 3 million more covered by 2019,
83% of US covered
That’s pathetic. Because the population is expected to grow over time, under the Republican health care plan there would be 2 million MORE Americans uninsured in 2019 than there are today, according to the CBO (50 million today, 52 million in 2019). But let’s look at cost:
Democrats – $104 billion in deficit reduction by 2019
Republicans – $68 billion in deficit reduction by 2019
The “fiscal conservatives” reduce the deficit LESS than the Democrats in the budget window, under their plan. And in the large-group market, where 80% of Americans get their private insurance, there would be a 0-3% reduction in the cost of their premiums; in other words, almost nothing (although that’s a preliminary figure that CBO doesn’t stand behind very aggressively).
Ezra Klein notes:
The Democratic bill, in other words, covers 12 times as many people and saves $36 billion more than the Republican plan. And amazingly, the Democratic bill has already been through three committees and a merger process. It’s already been shown to interest groups and advocacy organizations and industry stakeholders. It’s already made its compromises with reality. It’s already been through the legislative sausage grinder. And yet it saves more money and covers more people than the blank-slate alternative proposed by John Boehner and the House Republicans. The Democrats, constrained by reality, produced a far better plan than Boehner, who was constrained solely by his political imagination and legislative skill.
Watch the Republicans now argue that the CBO estimates don’t matter and that they aren’t comprehensive in their analysis. After eight months of hyping every draft the CBO sent out on the Democratic plan.
Gov Option Done Deal!
November 5th, 2009
11:45 am
H1N1 Update:
Goldman Sachs and other large NYC corporations receive H1N1 shots many physicians and public health centers don’t have http://bit.ly/48w47c
Iowa Cat catchs H1N1 flu–a case for vaccinating your dog or other pet and your family. http://bit.ly/35zNMV.
Gov Option Done Deal!
November 5th, 2009
11:46 am
H1N1 Vaccine stupidly resisted by some health care workers per Nov. 4, 2009 JAMA: http://bit.ly/3HSSE1
Gov Option Done Deal!
November 5th, 2009
11:48 am
For all you Governor Sanford Memorial Hikers.
Swine flu reaches Yanomami Indians in the Amazon
http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/swine-flu-reaches-yanomami-186279.html
getalife
November 5th, 2009
11:49 am
Paul,
“The 253-page bill is one of the most controversial provisions of the Obama administration’s overhaul of financial regulations because it directly addresses the future of government bailouts. The legislation drafted by the Treasury Department and Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, would give federal officials power to regulate, seize and dismantle large financial firms whose failure would pose a risk to the economy. ”
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-geithner-regs30-2009oct30,0,3248143.story
There ya go.
Paul
November 5th, 2009
11:50 am
USinUK
Didn’t say all. Said modify. Could start with the list of rushed-to-the deadline ’shovelready’ that have been shown to be… lacking. There’s a bunch.
USinUK
November 5th, 2009
11:50 am
Paul –
aHA … this is the article I was looking for
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aU3Tj5rE0wOM
Nothing Is Free
November 5th, 2009
11:51 am
Gov Option Done Deal!
What? No patients at 11:30 on a Thursday morning?
What kind of a doctor are you?
Marsh
November 5th, 2009
11:53 am
Gov Option,
Maybe it’s just “dummy” H1N1 vaccine those Goldman Sachs, etc. folks are getting…I can wish.
Gov Option Done Deal!
November 5th, 2009
11:54 am
I have always believed the Madoff family should be in prison. And now it looks like they are headed there. Look for indicctments for Shana the attorney neice who married an SEC incompetent, Peter the brother, Ruth the wife, and the two sons on tax evasion charges soon.
I say this because:
Madoff’s Accountant Pleads Guilty in Scheme–He knows where the tax evasion bodies are buried since he prepared taxes for all the rich Madoffs.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/04/business/04madoff.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=madoff&st=cse
He is facing a lot of years, and now he is singing like a canary to get them reduced which means that the Madoffs tax returns will be broken down and analyzed by the best and the brightest now. Why this wasn’t done months ago is a great question.
If you are a Madoff connected to that business, life has become very nerve wracking for you today:
Wyld Byll Hyltnyr
November 5th, 2009
11:54 am
Just a dead-cat bounce during the first third of the Obama Depression, no real stem that would sustain even a minimal economic upturn. What we need is either a huge tac cut or adoption of the House Republican healthcare plan that significant bends the cost curve downwartd.
USinUK
November 5th, 2009
11:56 am
Paul –
“Could start with the list of rushed-to-the deadline ’shovelready’ that have been shown to be… lacking. There’s a bunch.”
actually, the stimulus was timed so that it WOULDN’T be all spent in 6 months – it was designed to take a year to implement (tax cuts for an immediate hit, and programs for a longer-term hit)
Gov Option Done Deal!
November 5th, 2009
12:01 pm
It isn’t that Goldman Sachs or the other large corporations have done anything wrong at all. Actually they and from what I’ve been told large Atlanta companies like UPS, maybe Cox (I dunno) have every right to order the vaccine per CDC guidelines and vaccinate their employees according to guidelines.
But inevitably two things I’ve seen happening.
About 3 weeks ago some physician offices scattered randomly got the shot but most didn’t then. I would see people who got vaccinated at a Walgreen’s in Duluth off Pleasant Hill who got a limited supply but most drug stores hadn’t gotten any form of it.
If you were an employee of a corporation and your company got it, and you couldn’t find a doctor who had it or a public health venu that did, then you had an advantage per your employment.
Also many pictures circulate where young people between 20-30 are being given the shot who aren’t in a category that has to have the shot (pregnant, immunosuppressed, significant systemic disease, under 59).
So the distribution has been a bit random or moderately random. Cobb-Douglas and East Metro got the shot, but Fulton hadn’t received if a few days ago.
Some counties got the shot, but not others.
Many venues are awaiting additional mist and the shot.
They are catching up fast to their credit, and hopefully there won’t be mutation.
If there is mutation, there is a question of whether current vaccine would cover the mutation strain(s).
The colder months will be helpful to tell how bad the pandemic is, and people are looking to colder climates like the Ukraine for a prediction as to how our winter will pan out via H1N1.
Nothing Is Free
November 5th, 2009
12:01 pm
USinUK
**tax cuts for an immediate hit,**
What tax cuts would that be?
Paul
November 5th, 2009
12:03 pm
sfd
Same AP article. Rest of it shows there were numerous disqualifying deals cut. My point was, it wasn’t the gov’t that undertook a review and found the misuse. It was a news source.
getalife
Frank’s trying, I’ll give him that. But there are still huge special interests fighting and there’s a long way to go. I’m concerned too much will get dropped (like the consumer protections) , will not be as effective as it could be. But it is better than what we had before.
I want more of a whole loaf on this.
http://mobile.reuters.com/mobile/m/FullArticle/CPOL/npoliticsNews_uUSTRE58D3L120090914?src=RSS-POL
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
November 5th, 2009
12:05 pm
Well, I don’t know why that guy is griping about people trading in pickups for new pickups. What else you going to buy? I wouldn’t be caught dead in one of the weenie cars they claim get good mileage.
For a good GA redneck, the size of the truck stands for something else. I won’t say what, because there’s ladies on this blog. But there’s lots of big pickups on the road. Of course, if the truth came out some of these guys would need to be driving the little smart cars or maybe a golf cart.
Anyhow, I look at beer sales to tell me how the economy is doing. So far, they’re holding their own but they ain’t going up much. That tells me we’ll be in the Obama Recession for awhile.
Have a good p.m. everybody.
Paul
November 5th, 2009
12:06 pm
USinUK
I thought I remembered that significant sums would not be obligated until three years out? Again, I come back to my central point: Democratic insistence that every single dollar appropriated is vital and nothing can be reevaluated, let alone cut. It’s the attitude I find dismaying.
getalife
November 5th, 2009
12:06 pm
Paul,
They have to regulate to keep it from collapsing again. The corrupt Senate will water it down as usual.
Gov Option Done Deal!
November 5th, 2009
12:07 pm
A lot of economists both conservative and liberal like Paul Krugman make strong claims that the stimulus was way too little. I know that rankles with the majority of the public who feel the stimulus is money down the drain. I think if you compare wasteful war expenditures, the stimulus becomes a drop in the bucket.
And I think that in many peoples’ minds, there have been an onslaught of government programs–that’s sure the GOP meme and they merge TARP, subsequent bailouts and stimulus.
What rankles people and rightly so, is that they always felt Geithner and Summers were part of the problem that caused the bank failures, and that the very complex multifaceted programs now in place and pending simply reward Wall Street investment banks and large companies and ignore struggling middle America.
And when they read the stories of continued unemployment coupled with stories of massive bonuses by the 7 companies who got multibillion dollar bailouts their blood boils.
USinUK
November 5th, 2009
12:08 pm
NiF –
1) new home purchases
2) AMT patch
3) a 400/person tax credit for people with gross income<75K
4) tax credit for new car purchase
5) tax credits for education
Looking further
November 5th, 2009
12:10 pm
A Cause for Concern for Retailers: Nearly 63% of Consumers Anticipate Spending Less Than Last Year on Holiday Gifts
jewcowboy
November 5th, 2009
12:11 pm
Normal,
There is an article in this weeks Atlanta Business Article talking about the soon to be bust of the commercial contruction market.
Just look @ the Streets of Buckhead project that is now just a big hole on hold and in Buckhead alone you have 2 totally empty new office towers, phipps tower and 3630 peachtree with 0 tenants. And 2 new towers with less than 1/5 of their space leased, not to mention all of the other buildings in the buckhead submarket with 30+% vacancy rates.
When you factor in midtown and downtown I would say 2 years would be mildly optomistic, some say it will take 12 years to absorb the 3+ million sq ft of new office space in Atlanta.