Looking ahead at Election Night 2009
After losses across the board in 2008, Republicans could use some solace in the handful of high-profile races on the ballot today. If the polls are right, they’re likely to get some.
However, as the Wall Street Journal reports, most nonpartisan political experts say that such a small number of off-year races don’t offer much predictive value.
“I don’t think they say anything,” Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, told the Journal. “The sample is too small and the issues are local.”
Jay Newton-Small, writing in Time, comes to a similar conclusion, noting that while “off-year elections always see a bit of a backlash,” history suggests that backlash may or may not be sustained into the following year, when the real gains are to be made.
The Republicans certainly have a big advantage this time out in terms of intensity; their voters are motivated and more than a little angry, and they’re out to send a message. If they win two or even three of the three most-watched races, they’ll come away with a renewed confidence in their battered party, and that will be important.
More important still will be the lessons the party draws from success, because the night is likely to offer Republicans two conflicting narratives.
In the Virginia governor’s race, Republican frontrunner Bob McDonnell may walk away with a double-digit win in a major state that until now had been trending Democratic. Larry Sabato, a political-science professor at the University of Virginia and an expert on that state’s political scene, explains to Time how that feat was achieved:
“McDonnell ran as a moderate-conservative, not a hard conservative. The GOP base was tolerant and let McDonnell shave off his rough edges. Will the GOP base let its candidates do that in 2010, or will the base insist on purity? If the former, more Republicans will win in 2010, and if the latter, fewer.”
On the other hand, a conservative victory in New York’s 23rd congressional district would seem to teach the exact opposite lesson, confirming in the minds of many Republicans the power of a hard-core message. I suspect that the cheers and celebration over a victory in that district are likely to make the contrary lessons offered by Virginia fall on deaf ears.
Closer to home, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Mary Norwood will be forced into a runoff against Kasim Reed in the Atlanta mayoral race. And if Norwood draws less than 47 percent of the vote today, she could be in trouble in the runoff as well. But again, this is from a guy who thought John Kerry would win.
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136 comments Add your comment
Bosch
November 3rd, 2009
8:46 am
I think the fact that GOP voters are all riled up is gonna mean that the GOP will have pretty good outcomes – and that’s all good with me. I’ve read a couple things indicating that the Dems aren’t all that interested in voting this time around except in the local elections that directly affect them. This isn’t such a big election year, so good luck to all candidates. The real test is next year – and even then I think we’ll see more GOP wins.
USinUK
November 3rd, 2009
8:48 am
Lived in the DC area for 8 years, including 3 in Alexandria. Virginia isn’t “trending Dem” – the metro DC area is. Virginia is very much like Georgia – once you get out of DC and, maybe Charlottesville, it’s very rural and very red.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/election/vacounties.html
Lewis
November 3rd, 2009
8:53 am
Didn’t John Kerry win? Or was that Al Gore?
Marsh
November 3rd, 2009
8:53 am
I hope the people in the NY-23rd District have the good sense not to vote this Hoffman nut into office.
We don’t need another Bachmann or Foxx.
@@
November 3rd, 2009
8:54 am
No big surprise with this one, jay. Liberals always seek to diminish.
Mr. Hoffman, in my opinion, can be compared (to a lesser degree) to Mr. Vahidnia in Iran. The challenge in that race will be for the winner to accomplish something of significance in a year’s time — most of that year being spent on campaigning for the next election. Still, Mr. Hoffman is standing up to say enough is enough.
Can’t argue with that.
If Corzine wins, he continues to carry the unemployment burden in N.J.. Obama’s economic policies sho ’nuff ain’t gonna help him there.
Marsh
November 3rd, 2009
8:58 am
Doug Hoffman praises Glenn Beck as his “mentor”:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mevAD95kLs
Another example of why the Republican party is shrinking fast.
USinUK
November 3rd, 2009
9:00 am
I dunno, March, Bachmann is HOURS of entertainment …
NRBee
November 3rd, 2009
9:00 am
The way Norwood has been attacked because of her race has been very disgusting. Imagine the howling and outrage if the races were reversed in this particular case.
If she loses, it will be due to black racism on the part of the disgusting leeches who are running against her. May their version of hell include Barry Manilow music 24/7 and no KFC restaraunts to get fat in.
But anyways.
The real story will be 2010 when we boot out the commies and traitors.
And if our luck is really on a roll, the AJC will padlock it’s doors forever, and Jay can join forces with that guy on Freedom Parkway and sell some pencils out of a tin cup to passing motorists. Where he belongs.
Normal
November 3rd, 2009
9:01 am
Guys and Gals, from downstairs, thanks for the best wishes! I’ll give Mom your best this evening. I am so looking forward to it.
USinUK
November 3rd, 2009
9:04 am
Normal – is tonight pinto bean and cornbread night??? if so – have a great time with mom!! (envy!!!)
Bosch
November 3rd, 2009
9:05 am
Yes Normal – have fun with Mom! Don’t eat too many of those cheese biscuits!
Pokey
November 3rd, 2009
9:06 am
More comfort food from Jay Bookman. Can’t wait to read you first blog post a year from now.
Bosch
November 3rd, 2009
9:06 am
USinUK,
I make sure that I take NyQuil while I’m lying IN the bed. Too dangerous otherwise.
USinUK
November 3rd, 2009
9:06 am
that’s right … don’t eat too many cheese biscuits – air mail them to ME!!!
Turd Ferguson
November 3rd, 2009
9:07 am
“this is from a guy who thought John Kerry would win.” LOL!!
Bosch
November 3rd, 2009
9:07 am
I see NRB is back and keeping it classy.
Normal
November 3rd, 2009
9:07 am
USinUK, We had the Pinto bean and cornbread night last Friday. Mom said my cornbread reminded her of her mother(who taught me). That was high praise, indeed!
We are doing Red Lobster with the local family…kids, grandkid, greatgrandkids. We will take over the place…
Doggone/GA
November 3rd, 2009
9:09 am
“I see NRB is back and keeping it classy”
And still doesn’t know the difference between racism and bigotry
danjonglee
November 3rd, 2009
9:10 am
Norwood has the wrong skin color….self loathing leftist can’t bring themselves to vote for her….
Bosch
November 3rd, 2009
9:10 am
I think those cheese biscuits are another example of the proof of God and that we are meant to be happy.
Normal
November 3rd, 2009
9:11 am
Y’all, about NyQuil, it’s a lot better to warm up some Rock & Rye, add a dollop of butter(not oleo), and a splash of lemon juice…You will be warmer faster, throat number, and have a much sweeter breath.
Joey
November 3rd, 2009
9:11 am
In preparation for the very slight possibility that he will be able to say tomorrow that he was wrong and that the US still loves Democrats, Jay Bookman conceeds the elections in NY23, NJ and Virginia. Then justifies the concession with Off-Year stats.
That is what I would call “transparency that we can see through”.
Marsh
November 3rd, 2009
9:11 am
Look at the irony. Michele Bachmann is covered by government insurance and she wants to rally people against public option.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLDzKfsUzy0
Bosch
November 3rd, 2009
9:12 am
“Oleo” – the classic crossword puzzle word. Seriously, has anyone ever done a crossword puzzle where “oleo” was not a word?
Doggone/GA
November 3rd, 2009
9:13 am
Normal…I agree, except I use orange/pineapple juice – can’t stand the taste of lemons!
david wayne osedach
November 3rd, 2009
9:13 am
Do we really care who the Governor of New Jersey is? How does that affect us?
Finn McCool
November 3rd, 2009
9:15 am
Of course if Democrats sweep yet again (yawn) then that will say a lot.
stands for decibels
November 3rd, 2009
9:15 am
Norwood has the wrong skin color….self loathing leftist can’t bring themselves to vote for her….
This sounds like something Newt would Twitter.
jconservative
November 3rd, 2009
9:16 am
Those who read my comments know I love political history & facts more than opinion. Having said that – look at the Virginia governors race today.
McDonnell will win today – Republican candidate – Democratic President.
This will the ninth straight Virginia governors race in which the winner was of the opposite party of the incumbent in the White House. You must go back to Godwin(R) elected in 1974 while Ford was in the White House to break the string.
Why? Speculation is that a huge percentage of the Federal bureaucracy live in Northern Virginia & they swing between Republican & Democrat by using the opportunity to take it out on their boss. Speculation only.
Interesting political fact.
Normal
November 3rd, 2009
9:18 am
Doggone, that sounds like a syrupy screw driver!
———–
By the way, you know that a sscrew driver is made with vodka and orange juice, right?
So what mades a phillips screw driver? Vodka, orange juice and….are you ready….milk of magnesia!
USinUK
November 3rd, 2009
9:18 am
Normal –
aw, man … you just took me WAY back … when I was growing up, the Red Lobster on 41 was our family Big Night Out (I’m talking seriously special occasions). and the cornbread comment – wow – high praise, indeed! give your mom the hug I wish I could give mine.
Doggone/GA
November 3rd, 2009
9:19 am
I’m trying to figure this out…if a white person doesn’t vote for a white person it’s because they are “self loathing”, but if a black person votes for a black person it’s because they are “racist” – have I got that right?
So if a white person votes for a white person, does that mean they are “racist” and if a black person votes for a white person does it mean they are “self loathing”?
Is there no room ANYWHERE for someone who is voting for the person they think is best for the job – REGARDLESS of skin color?
Normal
November 3rd, 2009
9:21 am
USinUk, we are going to the one on 41 by Galleria, just a little south of Windy Hill…is that the one?
Bosch
November 3rd, 2009
9:21 am
USinUK,
Wow, ours too (same place)! then off to Treasure Island where we could buy a 45 record!!!
Doggone/GA
November 3rd, 2009
9:21 am
“By the way, you know that a sscrew driver is made with vodka and orange juice, right?”
Yep, actually I did know that…but it’s the pineapple juice that gives it that little extra kick!
Bosch
November 3rd, 2009
9:22 am
Doggone,
WHOAAA!!! Hold up, not enough caffeine yet for that one.
USinUK
November 3rd, 2009
9:22 am
jcons –
“Why? Speculation is that a huge percentage of the Federal bureaucracy live in Northern Virginia & they swing between Republican & Democrat by using the opportunity to take it out on their boss. Speculation only.”
well, I can’t speak for many of the VA elections, but I can tell you that George Allen was elected on 1 issue and 1 issue only: repealing the VA car tax. wouldn’t have mattered if Christ was in office, that was Allen’s ticket to Richmond (and the cause of the eventual collapse of the state budget … surprise, surprise).
so, it’s an interesting theory, but I don’t know that it holds water.
USinUK
November 3rd, 2009
9:24 am
Normal –
“USinUk, we are going to the one on 41 by Galleria, just a little south of Windy Hill…is that the one?”
nope – I was a Lockheed brat, so ours was the one up near Dobbins and the infamous Life Chiropractic college.
and I can’t believe that you, Bosch and I all had the same family treat!
Bosch
November 3rd, 2009
9:24 am
Doggone,
Second thought. Maybe that’s a good analysis of the wingnut bs?
Bosch
November 3rd, 2009
9:25 am
USinUK,
Did you get to go to Treasure Island afterward? That was the real treat!
USinUK
November 3rd, 2009
9:25 am
Bosch – OMG … Treasure Island … I haven’t thought about that place in YEARS!!!
Doggone/GA
November 3rd, 2009
9:26 am
“WHOAAA!!! Hold up, not enough caffeine yet for that one”
let me see if I can make it easier!
white person votes for black person = self loathing
black person votes for black person = racist
white person votes for white person = racist
black person votes for white person = self loathing
Where is the room for someone who votes for the best person, regardless of skin color?
TGT
November 3rd, 2009
9:26 am
Kristol on implications for Dems in NY-23:
“Obama won NY-23 last year by five points. So in an open seat race this year, a Democrat should have a good shot. Indeed, that’s precisely why Obama plucked the popular Republican incumbent from the seat to be his Army secretary — Rahm thought it was a likely pick-up. Then the task got easier for the Democrat, Bill Owens, thanks to the fiasco of the Scozzafava pick, with all the in-fighting among Republicans that followed, culminating in her dropping out and endorsing the Democrat. So, among other consequences, the de facto Republican candidate has only the Conservative line, with the confusion that may entail for some GOP-inclined voters, and there have been a number of absentee ballots already cast by Republcians for Scozzafava.
If, after all that, Hoffman still beats the Democrat in this Obama+5 district — and if he does so precisely after running against Owens as a likely rubber-stamp vote for Pelosi on health care and other issues — doesn’t that send a shudder down the spine of all Democrats in competitive districts?
Here in America the people rule.
So, on Wednesday morning, don’t at least 40 Democrats march into the Speaker’s office and tell her to pull the bill?”
Also, Interesting take on NY-23 by Rasmussen:
“In many ways, that (Conservative Party vs. Dem.) pairing reflects the reality of national match-ups more than the typical partisan competition. There are more conservatives than Democrats in America, and there are more Democrats than Republicans.
One reason for this is that while Republican voters overwhelmingly consider themselves conservative, only 56% of conservative voters consider themselves to be Republicans. In other words, nearly half of all conservatives nationwide reject the Republican Party label.
This means that Republicans looking to broaden their party’s outreach cannot ignore the need to attract a large number of conservative voters along with some political moderates. Of all the non-Republicans in the nation, 31% consider themselves at least somewhat conservative while 37% say they’re political moderates.
The sweet spot for Republicans are core issues that unify conservatives while dividing more moderate voters.”
jt
November 3rd, 2009
9:28 am
I heard the EPA has been called out to combat the giant cloud of noxious fumes spouted by the millions of lawyers descending upon New Jersey.
Here is a video of Acorn workers storming a polling station this morning in New Jersey. Corzine has claimed that these guys were only voting absentee.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZ_rUmbQMf4
Doggone/GA
November 3rd, 2009
9:29 am
“Maybe that’s a good analysis of the wingnut bs?”
That’s how it seems to me too. WE are supposed to be the “racists” because we “inject race into the discussion” – but they AREN’T because THEY inject race into the discussion?
See, I just can’t wrap my head around what passes for their logic – it gives me a headache!
Paul
November 3rd, 2009
9:29 am
DoggoneGA
G’morning. [[Is there no room ANYWHERE for someone who is voting for the person they think is best for the job – REGARDLESS of skin color?]]
Sure! His name is “Barak Obama.” As in “President Barak Obama.” I think he got more than a few votes of Americans of different ethnic backgrounds.
Bosch
Hi! Hope you’re feeling better, and remember, a screwdriver is not an acceptable substitute for NyQuil. It’s an accompaniment.
V’s on tonight, ABC, 8pm Eastern time. And remember, beauty’s only skin deep and some of the prettiest are the biggest psycho whack jobs!
Oh yeah, the topic:
The Republican Hard Right will learn all the wrong lessons and proclaim that which is self serving. As usual.
I think the underlying concern for this for Democrats should be the way Independents break. The lesson is: President Barak Obama is not synonymous with “I like him as a person so I’ll vote Democratic” in the minds of many voters. And it’s getting more and more that way.
Normal
November 3rd, 2009
9:29 am
Yeah, I used that one too, as a kid, but I don’t think it’s there anymore. Haven’t been that way in a while though, so I’m not sure. I’ll check, since I’m leaving from work.
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
November 3rd, 2009
9:29 am
Well, us Conservatives are good and mad. I just wish we had a election of Conservatives against Libruls down here in GA. It’s always Conservatives against Conservatives here. Except in the two districts where we packed all Those People in so they wouldn’t get too many seats in Congress. It gets kind of old listening to one Conservative call another Conservative a librul because he only wants to cut taxes 75% while the other one wants to get rid of them all.
Anyhow, I reckon this Mary Norwood will kick up a little dust today until the people in Atlanta wake up tomorrow and say, What the Heck, it looks like she’s White! We got to lay off of the crack on election day. Then they’ll vote one of their own into office in the run-off. Lester Maddox would of had a better chance of getting to be mayor of Atlanta than this Norwood woman will.
I’m like the others here. I don’t give a hoot in Heck who gets elected guvner of New Jersey or which New Yorker gets into Congress. Far as I’m concerned, it’s still one Yankee too many.
Anyhow, have a good day everybody.
Marsh
November 3rd, 2009
9:30 am
Conservatives to challenge a dozen GOP candidates
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20091103/pl_politico/29057
Can’t get much better than this…Republicans becoming more reactionary every day and embracing the crazy lunatics on the fringe, like Beck, the tea partiers, birthers…
Mrs. Godzilla
November 3rd, 2009
9:31 am
Oh pish tosh…..much ado about nothing.