The polls are important in assessing Afghan policy
I went looking for the most recent poll I could find on public sentiment regarding Afghanistan, and found it in a just-concluded national poll by the Clarus Research Group. The folks at Pollster.com break it down for us:
Do you think the war in Afghanistan has been very successful, somewhat successful, somewhat unsuccessful, or very unsuccessful in terms of defeating the Taliban and Al Qaeda?
42% Very/Somewhat Successful
55% Very/Somewhat Unsuccessful
Do you think the war in Afghanistan is a conflict the United States will eventually win, do you think it’s a conflict the U.S. will eventually lose, or do you think it’s a conflict that will go on and on without a clear resolution?
20% Eventually win
6% Eventually lose
68% Will go on and on
At this point – do you think President Obama should increase the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, keep the same number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan as there is now, or decrease the number of troops in Afghanistan and begin to get out?
38% Increase
40% Decrease
14% Keep the same
That’s the backdrop as President Obama weighs the course ahead in Afghanistan. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the commanding general in Afghanistan, has already provided his own assessment, and is awaiting a decision by the president. In fact, there’s some simmering sentiment that McChrystal has gone too far in lobbying publicly for Obama to accept his approach. (Mark Thompson at Time.com has a good piece on the military/civilian interplay.)
Both Defense Secretary Robert Gates and national security adviser James Jones, a former Marine Corps commandant, have suggested indirectly that Obama wants the debate among his advisers to be frank, thorough and also private. That’s important. As commander in chief, Obama has considerations that McChrystal did not and should not have factored into his own assessment.
For example, as the military commander in Afghanistan, McChrystal doesn’t have to worry about the polls. I’m not talking about the polls as an indicator of whether Obama will get re-elected, I’m talking about the polls as a gauge of whether the American public is really ready to make and sustain the commitment McChrystal seeks.
As the saying goes, the problem of maintaining public support for the war is above McChrystal’s pay grade. In our democratic system of government, that’s someone else’s problem. That someone else is Obama.
Remember, McChrystal isn’t just asking for as many as 40,000 troops. He’s asking for an extended and major commitment, an American footprint in Afghanistan more than twice as large as when Obama came into office. As commander in chief, Obama has to consider whether the American people — not Congress, not the Democratic left, but the American people as a whole — are willing to support that kind of effort for that long. If the American people support it, Congress will support it. If the American people won’t support it, Congress won’t support it for long either.
At this point in the discussion, someone will always pipe up to claim that Afghanistan once again proves that America has gone soft and can’t sustain a long war. Well, that’s a libel on the American people. Our troops have been fighting in far-off Afghanistan for eight years now and counting; the Soviets — nobody’s idea of softies — were there for 10 years, and they had the added incentive and advantage of proximity, given that at the time Afghanistan was a next-door neighbor. The Greatest Generation is lauded for its toughness, but Dwight Eisenhower, who as Supreme Allied Commander during World War II supervised more than his share of bloodshed, ended the fighting in Korea after just three years.
Obama appears to understand that the worst thing he can do is commit the troops and risk their lives in an effort that the American people will not support over the long haul. If he does that, he gets more American kids killed for no reason, and nobody wants that outcome.
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158 comments Add your comment
Scooter
October 6th, 2009
9:06 am
FIRST ?
Scooter
October 6th, 2009
9:07 am
Bosch
October 6th, 2009
9:07 am
As soon as we decrease troops or pull out – that will signal AQ to attack – which at that point all the wingnuts saying we should pull out will start yelling that Obama is weak and it’s all his fault.
Fickle, we are, fickle.
USinUK
October 6th, 2009
9:08 am
that’s shocking …
so a majority think it’s unsuccessful, nearly 70% think it will go on and on, and there’s an even split on whether or not to send additional troops???
criminey. bring back the draft. when it’s EVERYone’s kids that could possibly be sent to Afghanistan, I think people will think twice about whether to fight and how …
RW-(the original)
October 6th, 2009
9:14 am
Enter your comments here–
Earworm alert….
Polls, polls everywhere a poll
Mucking up the history, breaking my mind
Do this don’t do that, can’t you read the poll?
The first question above is sort of irrelevant but if more people think we haven’t been successful so far that might break in McChrystal’s favor.
The second question is unanswerable since Obama refuses to lay out what his mission is and even goes so far as to say he doesn’t like to think in terms of victory.
The third really depends on getting a mission statement. Considering the rules of engagement and lack of vision I certainly wouldn’t increase troops and if we do we better not put their fate in the hands of pollsters.
USinUK
October 6th, 2009
9:16 am
RW –
“Earworm alert” … thanks for that – I’ll take that over the Lady Gaga dreck that’s been lurking in my head all day (how it got there, I don’t know)
I’m with you on the “vision thing” (as papa bush once said) – all I want to know is what victory looks like … is that so much to ask?
Night Train
October 6th, 2009
9:17 am
Ruling by polls is not why we elected the people in Washington. Why have elected officials, why not just do everything by poll results? We could save a whole lot of $$ if we got rid of everyone in Washington and just let the ‘polls’ decide everything.
Who gives a flying flip about all these polls?
Turd Ferguson
October 6th, 2009
9:19 am
There will be no “bringing back the draft” so lettuce move on from that argument. On another note Obobo was to busy not listening to his generals explanations, future plans for afghanistan as he had to fly out to assist in bring the loser Olympics to the USA.
Chauk up yet another FAILURE for this failure of a president, jesus christ Obobo.
PS…OboboCare will be DOA…AHH HAHAHAA!
Scooter
October 6th, 2009
9:20 am
I think we should bring our troops home but if we don’t, I think we should increase the amount we have there now. ?????
USinUK
October 6th, 2009
9:23 am
TF –
“On another note Obobo was to busy not listening to his generals explanations, future plans for afghanistan as he had to fly out to assist in bring the loser Olympics to the USA”
seriously, that argument really doesn’t help you.
thomas
October 6th, 2009
9:28 am
A decision is what is needed. Any decision, but to leave the men and women who are there fighting for freedom every day deserve to know their fate and the plan that is ruling their fate.
The soldiers want to win the war and deserve to have an answer faster than 3 weeks from the time the proposal is made. 3 weeks is more than enough time for the president to make this decision. And the servicemen and women deserve that decision to be made quickly.
William
October 6th, 2009
9:31 am
It must be terrible to lose a family member with Obama as president. I mean you are in a no win situation. Liberals hate America and are willing to watch your children die in war and not do anything, except call them baby killers or murderers when they come home.
Bosch
October 6th, 2009
9:33 am
William,
No, I think your lot has the “baby killers/murderers” market.
Turd Ferguson
October 6th, 2009
9:33 am
Its just further evidence that we have a rookie in the White House, A Campaigner in Chief, that doenst understand much about anything other than defending a group of crooks, namely ACORN.
Obobo, as Pres, is and will continue to be a failure. Its really no more complicated than that.
pat
October 6th, 2009
9:33 am
It has been successful. If people can search their memories further back than 5 minutes ago, or place more value on real issues than American Idol you’d realize we already removed the taliban from power and sent al qaeda on the run. All that is left to do is to finish the job. The generals need more troops to do it, I don’t see where this decision is hard.
The casualty rates resulted from dragging out the war vs. committing to victory in a quick and decisive manner will be much higher.
Bringing the troops home now and surrendering at any cost isn’t just stupid, it’s dangerously stupid. Do you really thing these people are going to leave us alone? Oh never mind, you think Bush caused 9/11. If memory server we’ve have been attacked by these people at least 5 times in major ways.
1992 – Yemen – Two simultaneous hotel attacks
1993 – First attempt at WTC bombing
1998 – Embassy attacks in Tanzania and Kenya
2000 – USS Cole
2001 – ‘nuff said
So do the lives of the people who died at their hand not matter? Just because you can’t see them in your back yard, the thousands of lives American, African and Asian do matter. You really think their just going to get bored and quit? You really thing law enforcement can do any thing about this?
Iraq is one thing, a bad thing. But there is no doubt the Afghan theater is not only necessary, but anything but a decisive victory will be a tragic loss. If we give up, we will be attacked again, viciously. Even obama knows this.
Commit the troops and resources and lets end this thing, that is the most merciful solution. You cannot negotiate with people who think you deserve to die because of who you are.
War decision cannot and should not be made by polls. Popularity better not play a part. We need to do the right thing. Not quit and then hope we are safe…Saying that’s idiotic is an insult to idiots.
david wayne osedach
October 6th, 2009
9:36 am
No one has ever won a war in Afghanistan. And we won’t either. It is time to stop wasting the lives of our young men and precious resources to no avail. The time to get out is now!
Bosch
October 6th, 2009
9:37 am
Pat,
“Do you really thing these people are going to leave us alone?”
No, I don’t – and no amount of galavanting across the world invading whichever country du jour of bad guys we think are gonna get us will do nothing as well. Bring the troops home, tighten security around the borders, increase domestic intelligence, and hope it works – and if it doesn’t, re-assess.
Shawny
October 6th, 2009
9:38 am
52% (38 + 14) say increase or keep the same, while only 40% say decrease. Doesn’t come close to 100%, but does tell us that we should stay, doesn’t it, Jay?
Bosch
October 6th, 2009
9:38 am
Actually pat, in my humble opinion, if we STOP galavanting around the world invading or occupying whichever country du jour of bad guys we think are gonna get us, it might just make AQ less likely to wanna get us. But, strangely enough, Obama hasn’t called me for advice yet.
AmVet
October 6th, 2009
9:41 am
William, is your post from 1969?
Or are you just still living in that year?
“It must be terrible to lose a family member with Obama as president.”
Yeah, like it must have been SO good to have a son or daughter killed needlessly while the gutless buffoon who orchestrated the dual clusterf&cks was occupying the West Wing.
Like you never-served, never-will card carrying members of the 101st Chariborne and your equally gutless spawn would know first hand about such things.
Yours is easily the most repulsive and stupid post of the day. But my bet is that it will be at the end as well…
Bosch
October 6th, 2009
9:42 am
I want to see a poll of “Who Really Gives a Crap about Jon and Kate’s Problems.” I had never heard of these people until a month ago, and now they are everywhere.
USinUK
October 6th, 2009
9:42 am
Bosch –
“it might just make AQ less likely to wanna get us”
mmm … don’t know that I agree with that … what not galavanting around the world invading or occupying countries may do is lower AQ’s current recruiting rate …
Nothing Is Free
October 6th, 2009
9:43 am
I’m amazed. The majority of the public think that a war is bad.
Here’s a clue: ALL WARS ARE BAD.
Last year, this was the good war, but Iraq was Bush’s war so it was bad. Afghanistan had the blessings of the anointed one. All liberals thought that he would lay his holy hands on the war and his skills as The Anointed One would lead our enemies to become our friends.
But once again, the liberal dream has awakened into an environment in which a GOOD leader would have a hard time. This group of slimy Chicago sleeze couldn’t lead if their lives depended on it.
Anyone remember what the left said when Bush came out around 2003 and said that leading the country is really hard? Now: low and behold: Obama is complaining that it is hard. Poor baby.
How dumb would a person need to be to vote for a Chicago Lawyer to lead the free world?
Bosch
October 6th, 2009
9:46 am
USinUK,
” what not galavanting around the world invading or occupying countries may do is lower AQ’s current recruiting rate …”
That’s what I meant – you just expressed it better.
NIF,
How dumb would a person need to be to vote for a failed businessman and governor to lead the free world who lead us into two clusterf&ck military operations? Twice?
USinUK
October 6th, 2009
9:46 am
Bosch –
do we have to limit the poll to Jon and Kate? can we add:
TomKat
The Beckhams
Jordan and Andre (you guys don’t have them there – count your blessings)
Lady Gaga
Peaches Geldof
Lindsay Lohan
Brittany Spears
and
Madonna (and her scary arms)
to the list of people from whom I would like a 5-year moratorium
jconservative
October 6th, 2009
9:47 am
Obama announced his Afghanistan policy in March 2009. McChrystal’s report is his best estimate of what it will take militarily to carry out Obama’s March 2009 policy & reach the goals of that policy.
Obama is now reassessing his March 2009 policy, apparently at the urging of Biden & others in the administration. If he changes the policy, McChrystal’s report is not worth the paper it is printed on.
The White House announced through the press office that no “withdrawal” was in the plans. They did not mention an “expansion” to my knowledge.
And Jay is correct re the feelings of the American people re continuing a war. The Iraq invasion enjoyed big support from the people, but as time went by, & the people could see no end to the fighting, support fell off the table. We have been in Afghanistan for 8 years & accomplished none of the goals set by President Bush in 2001. The American people have about had it up to here with Afghanistan.
Will the people give Obama & the Pentagon another 6 to 8 years?
The 800 pound gorilla in the room is the failure of the Afghanistan central government. McChrystal says in his report that public support from the Afghan people for a central government is an absolute necessity for his plan to work. The decision Obama, Biden, Jones, Gates, Clinton et al must make is – “will this happen”.
William Casey
October 6th, 2009
9:47 am
Afghanistan is not and never has been a “nation” in any meaningful sense of the word. Study history. Al-Queda will always be able to find some God-forsaken “safe-haven.”
I have a new question to add to your poll: “Would you favor reinstituting the draft to provide the number of soldiers needed to pursue a successful American policy in Afghanistan?” I think you would get a more accurate picture of the American people’s attitude toward this situation.
Doggone/GA
October 6th, 2009
9:49 am
“No one has ever won a war in Afghanistan”
The Afghanis have
Bill White
October 6th, 2009
9:50 am
This president just doesn’t have the guts to stare down Islamo-Fascism. He talks and talks and then does absolutely nothing. This will continue until he is voted out or impeached–whichever comes first. Either he will commit more underfunded troops which will lead to more casualties or he will pull out leaving the Taliban in charge which will take over Afghanistan, Pakistan and two or three more neighbors. This will in turn set up countless terrorist training camps. Add to the fact that Gitmo is closing, Ahamadinejad has nukes and the drawdown in Iraq, and you have a major worldwide disaster all thanks to Hussein Nobama.
I knew it was going to go this way when he was campaigning. Job losses are way up. The two wars are being mismanaged. The recession he created is leading to a jobless recovery.
It’s time for rational thinkers to do the right thing and remove this administration before it’s too late.
RW-(the original)
October 6th, 2009
9:51 am
Enter your comments here–
Obama hasn’t called me for advice yet.
Bosch,
Please let us know when that happens so we can begin implementing our escape plans.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Obama apparently doesn’t think Chicago has been very impressive in the sports hosting business.
It’s a city that works — from its first World’s Fair more than a century ago to the World Cup we hosted in the nineties, we know how to put on big events. And scores of visitors and spectators will tell you that we do it well.–Barack Obama to the IOC
Scores??? WOW!!! Translated that means twenties of people were impressed. No wonder the IOC immediately voted them out.
Bosch
October 6th, 2009
9:52 am
USinUK,
You bet. When I finally rule the world – celebrities are gonna have a rude awakening.
Bosch
October 6th, 2009
9:53 am
RW,
You bet. If Obama calls me and asks for advice – I’ll be on the escape bus with you.
Doggone/GA
October 6th, 2009
9:53 am
“impeached”
I do not think that word means what you think it means.
Bosch
October 6th, 2009
9:54 am
“Islamo-Fascism”
There’s your sign!
USinUK
October 6th, 2009
9:54 am
Bosch –
and for that, you have my vote …
Nothing Is Free
October 6th, 2009
9:54 am
Bosch
**if we STOP galavanting around the world invading or occupying whichever country du jour of bad guys we think are gonna get us, it might just make AQ less likely to wanna get us. **
You just don’t get it. It has nothing to do with our our policies. It is, in the eyes of our enemies, a holy mandate. It is US that they hate. It is YOU. It is ME. It is all the women who come here that dare go into public with parts of their bodies showing. It is men that don’t have beards and stop several times every day to face Mecca and pray.
It’s not Bush. It’s not Bush. It’s not Bush. They hated us long before Bush was born. It isn’t our government. It isn’t our president, it is our freedom to do what we like.
Go to National Geographic (current edition) and read the piece about Indonesia and Islam. LEARN SOMETHING.
Taxpayer
October 6th, 2009
9:54 am
Clearly, this country needs a Republican draft since there are not enough of them volunteering to fulfill the needs of the likes of McChrystal.
USinUK
October 6th, 2009
9:55 am
Bosch and RW – you’re both welcome at ours …
RW-(the original)
October 6th, 2009
9:55 am
Enter your comments here–
USinUK,
I woke up with Fergie every morning for about four months, which my wife found extremely funny but I digress, and even though she hasn’t been around much lately we need to add her to your list just in case.
The Afghanis have
DoggoneGA,
Not by a long shot they haven’t.
Bosch
October 6th, 2009
9:56 am
“You just don’t get it.”
There’s your sign – and the point where I stop reading.
Nothing Is Free
October 6th, 2009
9:57 am
Bosch
**How dumb would a person need to be to vote for a failed businessman and governor to lead the free world who lead us into two clusterf&ck military operations?**
So the ability to run a business is conveniently your new standard for governance. So that would make Obama a file clerk in the office of a Republican.
Bosch
October 6th, 2009
9:58 am
RW,
“I woke up with Fergie every morning for about four months, which my wife found extremely funny but I digress”
Oh, please don’t digress…….I have a new found respect for you my furry blogger compadre.
USinUK
October 6th, 2009
9:58 am
“You just don’t get it. It has nothing to do with our our policies. It is, in the eyes of our enemies, a holy mandate. It is US that they hate. It is YOU. It is ME”
yep. that’s why France (where wimmen show a lot more thank ankles on regular teevee) and Italy (geez-o-pete, the birthplace of the Catholic church), Spain, Switzerland, Germany and Ireland have alllll been the target of attacks …
sorry, NiF, but your argument doesn’t hold water
RollerGirl
October 6th, 2009
9:58 am
In Bush’s case I truly felt no matter what else he did wrong or right, he made military decisions based on what he felt was needed, not what was POPULAR.
Obama , and I have to say this, I feel is totally only worried about how it will affect him politically or the democrats politically in the mid term.
USinUK
October 6th, 2009
10:01 am
RW –
“even though she hasn’t been around much lately we need to add her to your list just in case”
I soooo second that emotion
Doggone/GA
October 6th, 2009
10:01 am
“Not by a long shot they haven’t”
There are 2 sides in a war…if NO ONE has won, that’s incorrect. If one side loses (see Soviet Union in Afghanistan) then by default the OTHER SIDE WINS. The Afghanis are the “other side” and they AREN’T “no one”
RW-(the original)
October 6th, 2009
10:02 am
Enter your comments here–
I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a thank ankle.
/Sorry USinUK (ISH)
RollerGirl
October 6th, 2009
10:03 am
p.s just incase it’s ramadan or something (that damn thing moves around and comes more than once a year) Screw the pedophile mohammed! 54 yr old man…9 yr old girl+pedophile even in muslim math.
RollerGirl
October 6th, 2009
10:03 am
=
Bosch
October 6th, 2009
10:04 am
RollerGirl,
The God of Abraham was what, a gajillion years old and slept with a 14 year old virgin. By today’s standards, he’d be a registered sex offender.