When a bad jobs report can still be better than expected
It’s a tough situation when a loss of 216,000 jobs in a month can be considered not bad or maybe even a cause of optimism. But in case you hadn’t noticed, this is a tough situation.
And as far as jobs go, it’s not likely to get better for a while, maybe a long while. As the New York Times reports:
“… economists anticipate that losses will dwindle and that employers could begin creating jobs by late this year or early 2010. But most forecasters — and White House officials — still expect the unemployment rate to reach 10 percent or higher.“The job market is in for a slog,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “It’s going to be slow, incremental improvement, and it’s the reason why the broader recovery’s going to be very fragile.”
The total number of unemployed is now 14.9 million. But as the Bureau of Labor Statistics points out, the real number is considerably larger:
About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in August, reflecting an increase of 630,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
But the scariest way to look at it is graphically, as the chart to the left from Calculated Risk demonstrates. It depicts the percentage of jobs lost in each recession since World War II, and as you’ll see, the current decline is easily the deepest and is getting deeper still.
(click on the chart to expand it).
Calculated Risk also has a lengthier and more detailed look at the jobs picture. There’s a lot of pain and fear out there.
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289 comments Add your comment
Scooter
September 4th, 2009
11:04 am
No way I got first again!
Scooter
September 4th, 2009
11:05 am
RealityKing
September 4th, 2009
11:07 am
Sad how Jay’s job creation opinion changes with the political wind..
USinUK
September 4th, 2009
11:07 am
scooter-puss! where were you yesterday??
my equities screen was as green as a Christmas tree both yesterday and today … made me think of you (and your fund)
jt
September 4th, 2009
11:09 am
Be a real patriot.
Support your local under-ground economy.
USinUK
September 4th, 2009
11:10 am
“Support your local under-ground economy”
there are only so many bootleg Dead tapes a person can buy
Paul
September 4th, 2009
11:12 am
Unfortunately, Americans are an impatient lot. Amazing how we’ll criticize business leaders for concentrating on short-term profits and not take a long-term measure of success, but when it comes to results in other areas we want it right now!
I think Pres Obama will be more effective as he stresses ‘this was a long time in the making’ and lays off Bush-specific or Republican-specific blame. Sounds too much like shifting responsibility. But to acknowledge there were systemic problems, to scale back on the definitely rosy projections, to talk about the corrections put in place to prevent recurrence and to acknowledge the continuing difficulties experienced by many is a leadership style I think would resonate with more people.
And as more and more people lose jobs and their health benefits we’ll see if the attitudes of ‘don’t let the gov’t mess with health care’ change. It’s not just the people directly affected, it’s friends and extended families who see what’s happening to someone they know.
Scooter
September 4th, 2009
11:12 am
Y’ll don’t expand the chart. It makes things look even scarier. Whew!
DoggoneGA
September 4th, 2009
11:13 am
“there are only so many bootleg Dead tapes a person can buy ”
Are you sure he’s not advising you to start a drug habit?
Bosch
September 4th, 2009
11:14 am
RW,
Full Corn Moon?
Scooter,
I agree! Don’t expand the chart! And BTW, congrats on the firstage.
USinUK
September 4th, 2009
11:15 am
Doggone –
nooooo … no one here would ever advise such a thing! we’re all good, clean-living folks!
(’sides, talk about falling on deaf ears … I don’t even like to take advil if I don’t need to)
Wyld Byll Hyltnyr
September 4th, 2009
11:16 am
This Obama Depression is going to be a bugger. It is not too early, and certainly not inaccurate, to call the Obama Administration a failed presidency. We have seen this callow, inexperienced President propose a string of ill-advised, ideologically driven reforms that have created a crisis in confidence within the nation and driven his approval ratings to unprecedented lows for this point in a new administration. Never have we had a more divisive and incompetent President than President Obama.
Palin/Liz Cheney in 2012 – He promised, “Yes, we can”, but “No, he couldn’t.”
Scooter
September 4th, 2009
11:20 am
USinUK, I dropped in for a short visit yesterday and saw your post.I meant to thank you and forgot.
I looked at my acct. this morning and it had gone up by $500 so things are looking better!
RW-(the original)
September 4th, 2009
11:20 am
Paul,
But he’s “saved” a whole bucket load of jobs dontcha know. Your last paragraph is probably true and also quite possibly on purpose. Can’t waste a good crisis they say so let’s have the job market go down the tubes and force everybody into government health care.
TaxPayer
September 4th, 2009
11:20 am
Clearly, we would not be having this unemployment problem if we would just get government out of company business and cut taxes. I mean, those are proven techniques that date all the way back to the dinosaurs.
RW-(the original)
September 4th, 2009
11:21 am
Bosch,
Yes it’s the Full Corn Moon today and it is actually full a little after 4 this afternoon. Should make for some interesting traveling music.
thomas
September 4th, 2009
11:22 am
But what happened to 8% ?
Funny how the red line has not even jumped in a different direction since the stimulous bill was passed. Every other line had at teh least spikes of a good month, but not this time. Wonder why, what makes this one so much different?
and I know it was Bush’s fault exclusively, but can we try to explore other possibilities?
USinUK
September 4th, 2009
11:23 am
here’s the thing with unemployment –
1) it’s a lagging indicator – in other words, the economy will have been in growth for a number of quarters before we’ll start to see a real decline in the unemployment numbers …
why? because,
2) there’s significant slack in the market right now. Employers have cut back not only on the number of people they employ, they’ve cut back on hours, they’ve asked people to take unpaid leave, etc. In other words, there are a number of measures these companies can implement before they actually start hiring again.
the good thing is that we’re seeing significantly fewer new filings now than we have. The peak was 741K new filings in January. yesterday’s number was 570K, so while not great, they’re heading in the right direction.
RW-(the original)
September 4th, 2009
11:24 am
Here’s a dedication to all you firsters out there
Scooter
September 4th, 2009
11:26 am
Bosch, thanks!
I saw your moonbat and wingnut thing. I guess I am a batwing!
USinUK
September 4th, 2009
11:26 am
Bosch and RW –
okay. I admit it. I was born and raised in the south, but (alas) in the suburbs … so what IS a full corn moon?
USinUK
September 4th, 2009
11:27 am
RW –
firewall no likee youtube – is that the “if meetings were like the internet” sketch?
stands for decibels
September 4th, 2009
11:28 am
Calculated Risk is a must-visit site.
(I keep telling myself that, but I seem to alternate between existential angst and clinical depression after spending more than a few minutes there.)
Bosch
September 4th, 2009
11:29 am
RW,
Wow, that was really funny! You could tell he was almost about to laugh a couple times – then he pulls out the beer. I just thought the “first!” obsession was with us Bookman bloggers. Who knew?
Gale
September 4th, 2009
11:29 am
When they speak about the “real” unemployment number being higher, I wonder if they take into account the illegals who left because construction work shut down?
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
September 4th, 2009
11:30 am
Well, if they hadn’t of kicked the Republicans out this decline wouldn’t be so slow. We could plunge right down to 25 million out of work right quick and start back up. You got to hit the bottom before you can start climbing to the top. But no, the librul Democrats had to pass this stimulus bill and bail out the banks and take over the auto industry and pass Cash for Clunkers and try and keep people from getting kicked out of their house. So now the decline is about as fast as molasses running downhill in January. It will take a long time to reach bottom this way.
The best thing to do would of been just let the economy crash and get it over with. I got a job and a place to live so doing that wouldn’t of hurt me none.
So I’m with Wyld Byll. We need Sarah in the White House. I don’t know about this Liz Cheney as VP. Seems to me it could be alot of trouble having two women in charge of the country. You need a strong, brainy man in there someplace in case Sarah falls out of a copter while hunting moose.
Have a good one everybody.
RW-(the original)
September 4th, 2009
11:30 am
the good thing is that we’re seeing significantly fewer new filings now than we have. The peak was 741K new filings in January. yesterday’s number was 570K, so while not great, they’re heading in the right direction.
USinUK,
I don’t think you apply a static number to that to claim improvement. The pace of job losses pretty much has to slow at some point whether there is improvement in the overall economy or not just because there are fewer jobs that can be lost.
Bosch
September 4th, 2009
11:31 am
Scooter,
Ahhhhh. Batwing. Niiiiccceee.
USinUK,
A while back Midori asked RW why he was spending so much time in the forest and she wrote something like “What’s wrong? Are you a werewolf?” And for some reason that just really cracked me up and RW has been playing along with me.
GEORGE AMERICAN
September 4th, 2009
11:31 am
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND BAD ECONOMY IS A DIRECT RESULT OF STUPID DEMOCRATS ELECTING A DUMB INCOMPITANT PRESIDENT AND THE LIBERAL MEDIA LIKE BOOKMAN.
TaxPayer
September 4th, 2009
11:31 am
When they speak about the “real” unemployment number being higher, I wonder if they take into account the illegals who left because construction work shut down?
Those numbers are just plain unreal.
TaxPayer
September 4th, 2009
11:34 am
When are all those unemployment benefits and food stamp benefits going to run out too. I mean, those things just drag this whole mess out, like Redneck said. It’s just so un-Republican.
USinUK
September 4th, 2009
11:35 am
RW –
I understand what you’re saying, but my point was that we’ve past the inflection point and the situation is improving/levelling out.
RW-(the original)
September 4th, 2009
11:35 am
USinUK,
It’s a video of a guy sitting around all day surfing the web for new posting where he can post the first comment and move on. I’ll let Bosch take a shot at telling you what the Full Corn Moon is and then I’ll give you the real story.
TaxPayer
September 4th, 2009
11:36 am
Paul, why did you have to go and drag Bush into this.
RW-(the original)
September 4th, 2009
11:37 am
Geez Bosch,
Was that 11:31 your explanation of the Full Corn Moon?
USinUK
September 4th, 2009
11:37 am
Bosch –
“A while back Midori asked RW why he was spending so much time in the forest and she wrote something like “What’s wrong? Are you a werewolf?” And for some reason that just really cracked me up and RW has been playing along with me.”
hrmmmm … do you think RW is actually George (from Being Human)???
hey, RW. have you *heard* about the show Being Human??? (don’t get Bosch and I started …)
Bosch
September 4th, 2009
11:38 am
RW,
I know that someone with your condition might put more into the Full Moon and all, but is there more?
USinUK
September 4th, 2009
11:38 am
RW –
when I get home (if you haven’t headed out to the woods), I’ll see if I can find the other video for you … laugh flippin’ riot.
stands for decibels
September 4th, 2009
11:39 am
Be a real patriot.
Support your local under-ground economy.
That reminds me–I got to attend crackpot FairTax author and eight-term (even though he said he’d term-limit himself to six) Representative John Linder’s healthcare hootenanny last night.
The stupid is strong with those ones. To their credit, though, I only heard one (1) veiled assassination threat against the President over the loudspeakers, so I guess they were on their best behavior.
Scooter
September 4th, 2009
11:39 am
RW, that video was hilarious and now I’ll have a beer instead of lunch!
Bosch
September 4th, 2009
11:40 am
Off to lunch with friends! Later!
TaxPayer
September 4th, 2009
11:42 am
The stupid is strong with those ones.
That’s an understatement, dB.
wow
September 4th, 2009
11:43 am
Bookman actually has a degree in journalism?
Scooter
September 4th, 2009
11:45 am
I always figured RW was a lumberhack! I mean oh never mind….
TnGelding
September 4th, 2009
11:45 am
RealityKing
September 4th, 2009
11:07 am
It’s sad when some can’t understand the difference of when things are getting better than when they’re getting worse and would rather see our country in a recession than admit the fallacies of their poliitical persuasion.
jconservative
September 4th, 2009
11:46 am
Notice that the deep losses are V’s, W’s & U’s. This one is going to be a bathtub – deep decline, a long period of flat & then a steep recovery.
Just guessing.
RW-(the original)
September 4th, 2009
11:47 am
USinUK,
First off it’s the forest not necessarily the woods. The full moons all have names usually originated by Native Americans. The September one is named the Full Corn moon because most of the time it coincides with the corn being ready for harvesting. In fact the September full moon is often the true Harvest Moon even though that doesn’t come until October in name. Looking ahead the November one is the Full Beaver Moon. One of my favs.
Scooter,
I’m glad you’ve got a healthy sense of humor.
Scooter
September 4th, 2009
11:48 am
Taxpayer, are you envious because Paul mentioned Bush first?
TnGelding
September 4th, 2009
11:51 am
Scooter
September 4th, 2009
11:48 am
In case you aren’t around tonight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TD0YNZ1uaw0
TnGelding
September 4th, 2009
11:52 am
jconservative
September 4th, 2009
11:46 am
Aren’t we all? Talk is cheap.