‘Summer has slipped completely out of control for Obama’
Political analyst Charlie Cook, perhaps the most nonpartisan of that breed in Washington, takes a look at the landscape and predicts looming trouble for the Democrats:
“For those of you not addicted to the 1pm daily release of Gallup’s three-night moving average tracking poll, President Obama’s job approval rating in both their Aug. 16-18 and Aug. 17-19 averages was just 51 percent, the lowest level of his presidency. The latter sampling showed his disapproval up to 42 percent, matching his all-time low hit in the August 15-17 tracking poll. The 51 percent job approval rating is identical to two other polls released in recent days conducted by NBC News and the Pew Research Center. Today’s regression-based trend estimate computed by our friends at Pollster.com from all major national surveys show an approval rating of 50.7 percent and disapproval of 43.7 percent.
These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report’s congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics, is that this is far too low.
Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats.”
The elections are still more than a year off; a lot could change between now and then. But that kind of analysis and the inside-the-Beltway sentiment it reflects can have an important and almost immediate impact. It means to make the Blue Dog Democrats, many of whom would be most vulnerable, much less willing to stick their necks out for this president on health care and other issues.
Which in turn makes it harder to get thing done, which in turn makes that kind of prediction more likely to come true.
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358 comments Add your comment
USinUK
August 21st, 2009
6:49 am
good grief, you’re up and at ‘em early today, Jay …
USinUK
August 21st, 2009
6:54 am
as far as the spineless Dems, they need to start looking at ALL the polls, not just the approval polls … the latest Survey USA today poll shows that 77% of people want a choice in their health care – a choice that includes a government option
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5ba17aa2-f1b9-4445-a6b8-62b9d1ba8693
I Report/ Vast White Wing Conspirator (-: You Whine )-:
August 21st, 2009
6:55 am
Let’s see here, do I make a massive power grab for the government or do I consider my own political future?
It’s obvious that this legislation, once enacted, would not be so wonderful and adoring that it would change voters minds and make them love democrats once again.
But that nagging socialist itch to destroy the US economy is such a strong and powerful lure…
What to do, dimocrats?
Peggy Noonan says cut and run-
When presidents make clear, with modesty and even some chagrin, that they have made a mistake but that they’ve learned a lesson and won’t be making it again, the American people tend to respond with sympathy. It is our tradition and our impulse.
Either that or it would be blood in the water for us sharks.
Caught in your own steel trap of idiocy, once again, aren’t you?
stands for decibels
August 21st, 2009
6:59 am
When does the spay and neuter program for Blue Dogs begin in earnest?
Finn McCool
August 21st, 2009
7:00 am
The Super-Rich Are Getting Poorer
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/21/business/economy/21inequality.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
Somebody call a Whaaaabulance!
Finn McCool
August 21st, 2009
7:03 am
We will know soon whether or not the administration took the August recess to talk some sense (threaten?) the blue dogs – as they should have.
Howard Dean suggested there would be primaries in blue-dog elections next go around. And someone else said there would be no Presidential support during elections.
I believe Rahm will pull it out in the end.
Irregular Paul
August 21st, 2009
7:05 am
“‘Summer has slipped completely out of control for Obama’”
Which is why the imbecile has resorted to the trusty tactic of trying to deflect attention from his own shortcomings by taking cheap and irrational pops at other countries and their way of doing things.
Rank come in many colours, but all are equally rank.
TnGelding
August 21st, 2009
7:06 am
It means absolutely nothing at this point except that they have to get this health care bill right or abandon it altogether. There are things that could be done under current law to improve access and reduce costs. It’s hard to accomplish anything with the kind of vitriol being stirred up.
Gingrey THM:
“Crowd packs Cedartown GSP post for health care town hall meeting”
http://www.romenews-tribune.com/pages/full_story/push?article-Crowd+packs+Cedartown+GSP+post+for+health+care+town+hall+meeting%20&id=3219937&instance=home_Most_popular
TnGelding
August 21st, 2009
7:09 am
I Report/ Vast White Wing Conspirator (-: You Whine )-:
August 21st, 2009
6:55 am
Destroy the economy? Absurd! Democrats almost always have had to rebuild it after republican administrations, so it’s something they know how to do and will accomplish yet again.
TnGelding
August 21st, 2009
7:11 am
I Report/ Vast White Wing Conspirator (-: You Whine )-:
August 21st, 2009
6:55 am
He’s already said he’s willing to be a one-term president over this:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2009/08/13/dem_rep_obama_willing_to_be_one-term_president_for_health_reform.html
Rightwing Troll
August 21st, 2009
7:12 am
Any of you who discount the possibility that the Wingnuts will gain seats, and possibly even the WH are whistling past the graveyard. You can stick all the forks (just like thier forked toungues) in them you want, but like a zombie from one of those movies they will walk again.
It’s inevitable that Wingnuts will run this country again, it’s just a matter of when and how. That’s why trying to do this whole healthcare thing RIGHT NOW was an especially bad idea, but just like Wingnuts, Dems get drunk on power too.
The “free market” is in no way the answer, that’s what got us here today.
I Report/ Vast White Wing Conspirator (-: You Whine )-:
August 21st, 2009
7:14 am
Most importantly, health “reform” is the must-pass item for this administration, even more so than cap and trade or card check. And Democrats have clear majorities in both houses of Congress, so they can pass legislation of some kind if they can ever pull their party together.-WSJ
Huh, I thought it was the Repugs that were holding things up?
The dimocrats are fighting with each other?
No hopeandchange?
Rightwing Troll
August 21st, 2009
7:15 am
Oh and Andy,
the US economy was already destroyed by W and the wingnut version of “free markets”…
ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
USinUK
August 21st, 2009
7:15 am
“When does the spay and neuter program for Blue Dogs begin in earnest?”
where is Bob Barker when you need him??
Finn –
I’m with ya on the waaaaahmbulance … it’s not like we’re soon going to see folks like Warren Buffet and Bill Gates at their local Wal Mart anytime soon … they may be getting poorer, but that doesn’t mean that they’re eating Beanie Weenies and Mac-n-Cheese …
Pogo
August 21st, 2009
7:15 am
That’s right USinUK, you keep believing that. You libs make fine ostriches. You obviously cannot hear “way over there” what is happening here. I assume that the only thing you have to go by is the American media which means you are a long way from getting the truth.
By the way, do you ever work or do you just sit and peck on the internet all day long until it is time to go home? No wonder you like it in the UK. They seem to accept that behaviour and they pretty much expect it in their socialist society.
TnGelding
August 21st, 2009
7:17 am
Finn McCool
August 21st, 2009
7:00 am
Think they might wish they’d just paid that extra 10% in taxes now?
Mrs. Godzilla
August 21st, 2009
7:17 am
Obama’s playing chess…..his opponents are playing chutes and ladders.
Chill…..Obama’s got this.
stands for decibels
August 21st, 2009
7:19 am
I needed a minute to fully grasp just what it was that I found amusing about Charlie Cook’s report, and I think I’ve got it now.
It’s this notion, this implicit tone, this vibe that I get, that it would be a terrible, terrible thing for the nation’s Democrats to see (say) 20 of their most conservative members losing their House seats over a matter of national importance. As if such matters ever kept the Newts of this world from pushing this or that legislation.
I guess I have to say this clearly for those who aren’t in the same DFH circles as me, but if it comes down to meaningful HCR with a pathway to establishing a publicly funded single payer insurance program in exchange for 20, or even 40 seats in one mid-term, I take that in a heartbeat.
The worst possible outcome of course is some watered-down slop that winds up becoming nothing more than a bailout for the private insurance ghouls AND subsequent, substantial mid-term losses.
Finn McCool
August 21st, 2009
7:20 am
TN and USinUK,
A lot of folks will be looking forward to the Swiss releasing those names. They should make a reality TV show about that.
call it “Quit cheating your country…or else”
TnGelding
August 21st, 2009
7:22 am
USinUK
August 21st, 2009
7:15 am
Gates and Buffett will regain their fortunes to previous levels, but it’s the millions of others I’m concerned about. We need them to keep the wheels greased. It will benefit Mother Earth tho if they have to discontinue their lavish lifestyles.
USinUK
August 21st, 2009
7:22 am
that’s right, Pogo – “socialism! socialism! socialism” … when all else fails, just throw this into a conversation and all will be well.
“do you ever work or do you just sit and peck on the internet all day long”
aw. poor you can only accomplish one thing at a time. I guess they have you making fries since working the counter would probably be too much for you.
“You obviously cannot hear “way over there” what is happening here”
I guess you haven’t heard … the intertubes are for MORE than just looking up “redneck girls (or do you prefer boys?) in camoflage” … some of us use it to read the NEWS … and from all kinds of different sources … you should give it a try sometime …
Finn McCool
August 21st, 2009
7:23 am
The reason the Repugs are wigging on health care is because they know, deep in their hearts, that when the Dems get health care passed it will be a total success with the American People and we will have those people’s votes for decades to come.
Even if it isn’t perfect to begin with, if people see the savings in their paychecks and pocket books? It will be a success to them.
Mrs. G says it perfectly, Obama’s got this.
We might even see a President Howard Dean in the future now!
USinUK
August 21st, 2009
7:24 am
Finn –
“A lot of folks will be looking forward to the Swiss releasing those names. They should make a reality TV show about that”
they did a program on it over here a few months ago … if I remember correctly, it all started because of 1 whistleblower and a briefcase …
Finn McCool
August 21st, 2009
7:26 am
Pogo, we get an education and good jobs so we can peck anytime we damn well please.
TnGelding
August 21st, 2009
7:26 am
Finn McCool
August 21st, 2009
7:20 am
Yeah, I’m curious myself. We simply have to make it simpler to collect the taxes needed to run the country. The current tax code is just too complicated and costly to comply with. I have people in my neighborhood that are running businesses and not claiming a dime of income. Should I report them?
USinUK
August 21st, 2009
7:32 am
TnG –
“Gates and Buffett will regain their fortunes to previous levels, but it’s the millions of others I’m concerned about. We need them to keep the wheels greased. It will benefit Mother Earth tho if they have to discontinue their lavish lifestyles”
While they do contribute to the economy, I’d still like to see a definitive study that shows how much — i’m not really sold on the size of their contribution to the trickle-down theory.
TnGelding
August 21st, 2009
7:33 am
Pogo
August 21st, 2009
7:15 am
Ever heard of multi-tasking?
Mrs. Godzilla
August 21st, 2009
7:17 am
I wish I had your optimism. He seemed confident on the radio show yesterday.
http://wcco.com/health/health.care.reform.2.1137373.html
I Report/ Vast White Wing Conspirator :-) You Whine :-(
August 21st, 2009
7:35 am
TN- I know, even the dunce TelePrompter reader Obozo knows that this legislation wouls so anger the American people that they would vote him out of office.
But yet he doesn’t care, the power grab for the dimocrats means more to him than any thing else.
ew
mike
August 21st, 2009
7:37 am
Gee, I guess Jay and the rest can stop calling the GOP “irrelevant” now. LOL
That lasted about six months.
USinUK
August 21st, 2009
7:39 am
“But yet he doesn’t care, the power grab for the dimocrats means more to him than any thing else”
wow, whiner. even for you, that defies logic.
the president is so “power-hungry” that he’s happy to lose it all just to accomplish the one thing that he thinks is of paramount importance???
um. hrm. I think you might want to look up “power-hungry” as “I don’t think this word means what you think it means”.
TnGelding
August 21st, 2009
7:40 am
I Report/ Vast White Wing Conspirator
You Whine 
August 21st, 2009
7:35 am
You’ve let your partisanship overcome your logic.
mike
August 21st, 2009
7:40 am
Rightwing Troll –
“the US economy was already destroyed by W and the wingnut version of “free markets”…”
Can you be specific about which policies you are talking about? My guess is that you have absolutely no idea what you are bleating.
Are you familiar with the deregulation that took place under Bill Clinton and Bob Rubin? It was far more relevant to today’s crisis than any deregulation that took place under Bush.
Don’t get me wrong. In general, I am favor of deregulation. I am pointing out that your silly attempts to blame Bush exclusively for “free market” policies is ignorant.
TnGelding
August 21st, 2009
7:41 am
mike
August 21st, 2009
7:37 am
I thought you’d like today’s topic.
mike
August 21st, 2009
7:42 am
“the president is so “power-hungry” that he’s happy to lose it all just to accomplish the one thing that he thinks is of paramount importance???”
Kind of sounds like that explanation can apply “King George” and Irag.
Finn McCool
August 21st, 2009
7:43 am
Krugman has a similar problem with Obama, also a good read:
It’s hard to avoid the sense that Mr. Obama has wasted months trying to appease people who can’t be appeased, and who take every concession as a sign that he can be rolled.
Indeed, no sooner were there reports that the administration might accept co-ops as an alternative to the public option than G.O.P. leaders announced that co-ops, too, were unacceptable.
So progressives are now in revolt. Mr. Obama took their trust for granted, and in the process lost it. And now he needs to win it back.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/21/opinion/21krugman.html
mike
August 21st, 2009
7:45 am
TnGelding –
“I thought you’d like today’s topic.”
Well on the one hand, I am disappointed. I want Obama to be successful because the country needs him to be. I generally think that the country being united around imperfect policy is better than the country not addressing any pressing problems because we are too bound up in partisan sniping.
On the other hand, I take some pleasure in seeing the folks who were so quick to claim that the GOP was dead forever to be proven wrong so fast. It’s one thing for the average Joe to make such claims, but seeing a professional political analyst like Jay make those claims was just sad because history clearly tells us that would not be the case.
Finn McCool
August 21st, 2009
7:46 am
mike,
Didn’t forget to add what congressmen were behind that deregulation, did you? A slip? That legislation was cobbled together by Republican controlled houses, no?
Ever heard of Phil Gramm?
Maybe we go back to Ronny Reagan whose drop in the tax rate on top earners led to the S&L debacle? Your deregulation love fest has led to a market collapse at least once every 10 years, not to mention the small ones in between.
Fred
August 21st, 2009
7:51 am
If you would like to help pressure Congress to pass single payer health care in a democratic and constructive way please join our voting bloc at:
http://www.votingbloc.org/Health_Bloc.php
Peadawg
August 21st, 2009
7:52 am
With his approval rating dropping every week, I can’t wait until 2012. I’ll be standing in front of the white house in 2012 and singing to Obama and his administration of idiots:
nah nah nah nah, nah nah nah nah, hey hey hey, goodbye
USinUK
August 21st, 2009
7:54 am
Peadawg … it’s a looooooooong time until 2012 … I wouldn’t start warming up, if I were you …
USinUK
August 21st, 2009
7:57 am
mike –
“Kind of sounds like that explanation can apply “King George” and Irag.”
the difference, of course being:
Obama wants to ensure that ALL Americans have access to health care coverage
W wanted to get the man who shot his pa … so much so, that in the hours immediately following the planes hitting the towers and the pentagon, he was looking at how they could use it to go after Iraq.
Mrs. Godzilla
August 21st, 2009
7:57 am
OH NOES! So much sturm and drang over a plan to bring the healthcare system of the United States of America into the 21st century.
No one with any sense expected this to be pretty and it ain’t.
But now the the WMD, greet us as liberators, mission accomplished, terror level orange, Obama is a muslim crowd have got their kevlar panties in a wad and are doing what they have done all along. Lie. Lie. Lie.
Obama’s not worried about his poll numbers. He’s worried about the American people…..the vast majority of us for whom serious healthcare reform will be a blessing. (Like social security and medicare are blessings for our MiMi)
Peadawg
August 21st, 2009
7:59 am
“Peadawg … it’s a looooooooong time until 2012 … I wouldn’t start warming up, if I were you …”
Ya, like democrats didn’t start counting out Bush 7 months into his Presidency in 2000.
mike
August 21st, 2009
7:59 am
Finn –
Are you serious? Are you really such a partisan that you refuse to hold Clinton and Rubin accountable for policies which you otherwise moan about?
Take a look at this retrospective of Rubin’s policy from 2004:
“As Rubin tells the story in his new memoirs, he persuaded Clinton early on to make financial-market “confidence” the administration’s chief economic priority. Key to the strategy was Greenspan, who was supposedly concerned that spiraling federal deficits would ignite inflation, forcing him to raise interest rates and thus choke off growth. Cut the deficit, argued Rubin, and Greenspan will let the economy live.
Clinton was an easy sell. He not only reduced the deficit but also went on to balance the budget, run a surplus and, by the end of his term, put the federal government on a path toward eliminating the entire national debt. Along the way, he embraced large parts of Wall Street’s agenda: free trade, privatization and the deregulation of finance, energy and telecommunications. In turn, Greenspan kept rates low.
So Rubin’s plan worked, but the cost was high. Hopes that the peace dividend from the end of the Cold War would finance major new programs in health care, education and other areas of public need were dashed. Social investments as a share of the country’s national income actually declined over the Clinton years. Fights over free trade split the party and contributed to the loss of the House of Representatives, from which Democrats have still not recovered. And deregulation led to an orgy of irresponsible speculation and fraud that eventually left workers without pensions, small-scale shareholders with worthless paper and California — among other places — without the money to pay for basic services.”
Notice that it is referred to by this very liberal publication as “the Rubin plan.”
I’m not surprised that you want to dismiss any actions by your party that you find disagreeable. It makes it easier for you to hate Republicans.
mike
August 21st, 2009
7:59 am
Finn –
Forgot the link
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=robert_rubins_contested_legacy
TnGelding
August 21st, 2009
8:01 am
Peadawg
August 21st, 2009
7:52 am
If he’s leaving I’ll pay your air fare. Please understand and admit the tremendous tasks he and his idiots faced.
Turd Ferguson
August 21st, 2009
8:01 am
More good news!!
Poll: Americans losing confidence in Obama
http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/poll-americans-losing-confidence-in-obama-120707.html
AHHH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAA!
mike
August 21st, 2009
8:01 am
Mrs. Godzilla –
“Obama’s not worried about his poll numbers. He’s worried about the American people”
I actually agree with you there. I also believe the same was true of Bush.
USinUK
August 21st, 2009
8:01 am
meanwhile … in yesterday’s report on initial jobless claims, this little nugget o’ good news was buried:
during July the decline in payrolls was 247,000 – the smallest monthly loss in a year and lower than economists had forecast.
obviously, we have a way to go, but as lights at the end of the tunnel go, that’s not a bad one …
Turd Ferguson
August 21st, 2009
8:02 am
And YES…there is more!!!
One In Three Chance You’ll Soon Owe More Than Your House Is Worth
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/307793/One-In-Three-Chance-You%27ll-Soon-Owe-More-Than-Your-House-Is-Worth?tickers=xhb,tol,len,kbh,dhi,phm