Tough election ahead for Dems in 2010?
Nate Silver, a liberal Democrat and the chief stats geek at FiveThirtyEight.com, has a new post up warning that “there’s ample reason for Democrats to be worried — perhaps deeply so — about 2010.”
“Without major intervening events like 9/11, the party that wins the White House almost always loses seats at the midterm elections — since World War II, an average of 17 seats in the House after the White House changes parties. Democrats have substantially more seats to defend than Republicans, particularly in the House. They appear to face a significant enthusiasm gap after having dominated virtually all close elections in 2006 and 2008. And the economy and health care are contingencies that could work either way, but which probably present more downside risk to Democrats than upside over the next 12-18 months, particularly if some version of health care reform fails to pass.”
He puts the odds of Democrats losing the House at between 1-in-4 and 1-in-3, with losses more likely than gains in the Senate as well.
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196 comments Add your comment
Normal
August 17th, 2009
12:18 pm
It could very well be, this is one Lib who so far, is very disappointed. in the President…
Normal
August 17th, 2009
12:19 pm
Well, waddayaknow, had to go to Austria to be number one…go figure…
Turd Ferguson
August 17th, 2009
12:21 pm
Chip Chip Chips-A-Hoy!!
Mrs. Godzilla
August 17th, 2009
12:25 pm
Congressional Quaterly says the opposite….
Normal
August 17th, 2009
12:27 pm
Off to did-din, see y’all tomorrow..
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
August 17th, 2009
12:28 pm
Well, it’s just too bad Sarah can’t be President till 2012. We need to get Republicans to take over Congress pronto. You just know the librul Democrats will let My President’s tax cuts expire at the end of next year and we need to get them put back in so we can have Trickle Down again.
Anyhow, the Republicans done a good job of gumming up the works and making the librul Democrats look bad. With a little help from the Blue Dogs. All we need now is a few librul Democrats getting caught writing love notes to teenage pages and showing up on the list of women that spank men wearing diapers and maybe getting arrested for clicking shoes with the guy in the next stall or getting a Daddy to pay off a woman.
Things is looking up and maybe we won’t be in the wilderness too much longer. Have a good p.m. everybody.
danjonglee
August 17th, 2009
12:31 pm
Take a peak at Daily KOS and DU. They are pretty upset. Not safe for work. Profanity is used every other word.. But singel payer healthcare will pass. They will call it something else but it will end up being single payer….
Jake
August 17th, 2009
12:38 pm
Four of the last five Congresses have been bad for the country. Why? Too much power when one party controls Congress and the WH, which results in lots of lousy legislation, Medicare (D), the Patriot Act, the bailout, and, potentially this health care bill. It’s much beter when one branch moderates the other and we tend to get less but better laws.
Mrs. Godzilla
August 17th, 2009
12:38 pm
danjonglee
ever read the “freepers”?
jconservative
August 17th, 2009
12:44 pm
Politics 101 – party in White House losses at the midterms. Everyone has known this for years. The news will be if it does not happen.
Now if everyone will take my advice – never, ever, vote for an incumbent
we can get this country turned around.
Jefferson
August 17th, 2009
12:45 pm
People should stand their ground. These congressmen should asked the shouters at these town hall did they vote for them. If they answer no, just tell them they will support them the same amount. When it comes down to it, support those who elect you, not the whining minority noisemakers.
USinUK
August 17th, 2009
12:46 pm
Jefferson …
now, THAT, I’d like to see on YouTube …
TnGelding
August 17th, 2009
12:46 pm
Nothing to be concerned about…..yet.
Taxpayer
August 17th, 2009
12:57 pm
Nate is also quick to point out the difference between “taxpayer” and “working taxpayer”. Some people just do not appreciate the meaning of that little distinction.
Jake
August 17th, 2009
12:58 pm
jcon – We need to elect people who would pass a law creating term limits for their own jobs! Fat chance of that happening. One term Senate, two terms House, everyone ‘volunteers’ for the good of the country and serves 4-6 years only instead of these professional politicians who only do two things, campaign and line their own pockets.
Turd Ferguson
August 17th, 2009
1:04 pm
I will volunteer to serve in either branch.
A bit remnant of the Sam Nunn days but…
“Turd Ferguson in Washington!!”
Curious Observer
August 17th, 2009
1:15 pm
Ah, yes. The one-termers. That way, we can be assured that every Congressional branch would be controlled by a different party after every election. The party out of office would be prepping its candidate to win the next election, while the party in office wouldn’t want to step on the toes of its incumbent. And a sitting representative or a senator would have absolutely no incentive to follow the wishes of the people who elected him or her, since reelection is an impossibility.
Ain’t it funny how the people who say “never vote for an incumbent” are usually the ones whose party or philosophy is out of power? In the present political environment, it’s always the conservatives who don’t want an incumbent reelected. No self-serving there, right?
md
August 17th, 2009
1:15 pm
Too many here blast the past admins for being controlled only by the reps, yet can’t see the same is now true in the opposite. Balance is the best form of gov’t, regardless of which party is in control.
stands for decibels
August 17th, 2009
1:16 pm
Politics 101 – party in White House losses at the midterms. Everyone has known this for years. The news will be if it does not happen.
Jcon, that truism really isn’t all that true. One of Nate’s commenters has a pretty good take on it, you might want to have a look.
ty webb
August 17th, 2009
1:16 pm
“whining minority noisemakers” hmmmm…how progressive.
jasper
August 17th, 2009
1:16 pm
Do these projections include Acorn’s ability to deliver 110% of registered voters. Given their control of the census that year, I think we’ll see a strong turnout of the hereafter vote. Don’t be surprised to see your local Dimocrat holding a town hall se’ance.
AmVet
August 17th, 2009
1:18 pm
The American empire has not altered under Barack Obama. It kills as brutally and indiscriminately in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan as it did under George W. Bush. It steals from the U.S. treasury to enrich the corporate elite as rapaciously. It will not give us universal health care, abolish the Bush secrecy laws, end torture or “extraordinary rendition,” restore habeas corpus or halt the warrantless wiretapping and monitoring of citizens. It will not push through significant environmental reform, regulate Wall Street or end our relationship with private contractors that provide mercenary armies to fight our imperial wars and produce useless and costly weapons systems.
The sad reality is that all the well-meaning groups and individuals who challenge our permanent war economy and the doctrine of pre-emptive war, who care about sustainable energy, fight for civil liberties and want corporate malfeasance to end, were once again suckered by the Democratic Party. They were had. It is not a new story. The Democrats have been doing this to us since Bill Clinton. It is the same old merry-go-round, only with Obama branding. And if we have not learned by now that the system is broken, that as citizens we do not matter to our political elite, that we live in a corporate state where our welfare and our interests are irrelevant, we are in serious trouble. Our last hope is to step outside of the two-party system and build movements that defy the Democrats and the Republicans. If we fail to do this, we will continue to undergo a corporate coup d’etat in slow motion that will end in feudalism.
And the duopoly that owns most of you and knows you work for them rolls along…
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20090810_nader_was_right_liberals_are_going_nowhere_with_obama/
@@
August 17th, 2009
1:22 pm
‘Twas “BOUND” to happen, jay.
The huge turnout at David Scott’s townhall in Clayton showed up mainly for the Health Fair caring less about the proposed bill.
Washington, Aug 14, 2006 – Congressman David Scott will convene the 13th Congressional District’s Second Annual Health Fair on Saturday, August 19, 2006 from 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. This event will take place at Mundy’s Mill High School in Jonesboro, located off Tara Boulevard, approximately 2.5 miles south of the Highway 138 and Tara Boulevard intersection, at 9652 Fayetteville Road.
A diverse selection of free health screenings, cooking, CPR and fitness demonstrations, and information about important health issues will be offered. Additionally, attendees of the Health Fair can participate in a blood drive, hear from Congressman Scott and special guest speakers, and enroll on site in health assistance programs like Medicare, Medicaid, PeachCare, prescription drug assistance, and others for the uninsured.
In other words, they didn’t show up for the Town Hall meeting. I have to admit, the enrollment opportunity was a good thing.
joe matarotz
August 17th, 2009
1:23 pm
HOT OFF THE CNN PRESS!
August 17, 2009
Poll: Stimulus not working
Posted: August 17th, 2009 12:39 PM ET
WASHINGTON (CNN) – Six months after the $787 billion economic stimulus package became law, a new poll indicates a majority of Americans don’t think it’s working.
Fifty-seven percent of those questioned in a USA Today/Gallup survey released Monday say the federal stimulus has had no effect on the economy so far, or has made things worse. Just over four in 10 say the stimulus has made things better.
The poll also suggests that six in 10 doubt that the stimulus package will make things better in the future, with 38 percent saying the infusion of money from Washington will have a positive effect on the nation’s economy.
“Support for the stimulus package dropped significantly even before it was passed, and six months ago the public was evenly divided over whether it would help the economy,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Americans have never supported the idea of a second stimulus bill — back in March, two-thirds opposed that idea.”
Could be tough sledding for the Dems in the next election. As Lincoln said “You can fool some of the people all of the time…” I guess Obama isn’t fooling enough of the people.
AmVet
August 17th, 2009
1:25 pm
More from above.
We owe Ralph Nader, Cynthia McKinney and the Green Party an apology. They were right. If a few million of us had had the temerity to stand behind our ideals rather than our illusions and the empty slogans peddled by the Obama campaign, we would have a platform. We forgot that social reform never comes from accommodating the power structure but from frightening it. The Liberty Party, which fought slavery, the suffragists who battled for women’s rights, the labor movement, and the civil rights movement knew that the question was not how do we get good people to rule—those attracted to power tend to be venal mediocrities—but how do we limit the damage the powerful do to us. These mass movements were the engines for social reform, the correctives to our democracy and the true protectors of the rights of citizens. We have surrendered this power. It is vital to reclaim it. Where is the foreclosure movement? Where is the robust universal health care or anti-war movement? Where is the militant movement for sustainable energy?
“Something is broken,” Nader said when I reached him at his family home in Connecticut. “We are not at the Bangladesh level in terms of passivity, but we are getting there. No one sees anything changing. There is no new political party to give people a choice. The progressive forces have no hammer. When they abandoned our campaign, they told the Democrats we have nowhere to go and will take whatever you give us. The Democrats are under no heat in the electoral arena from the left.
“There comes a point when the public imbibes the ultimatum of the plutocracy,” Nader said when asked about public apathy. “They have bought into the belief that if it protests, it will be brutalized by the police. If they have Muslim names, they will be subjected to Patriot Act treatment. This has scared the hell out of the underclass. They will be called terrorists.
Tom
August 17th, 2009
1:26 pm
Well now – the Repugs want Obama and the nation to fail, no matter what. It’s a genetic thing with them. Destroy an ything & everything that is good, positive, worthwhile, new, different. Such failure satiates their innermost prurient interests and perpetually angry and failed lives. Same old same old. Destroy it – and imagine that they themselves are able to feed personally upon the carcass of failure. It’s always been why the Nation spins ever downwards.
Jake
August 17th, 2009
1:26 pm
Curious wrote “And a sitting representative or a senator would have absolutely no incentive to follow the wishes of the people who elected him or her, since reelection is an impossibility.” See this is how pathetic we have become. Without reelection possibilities, i.e., accumulation of wealth and power, there would be no incentive. How about just character and integrity and wanting to do the right thing for your country? I guess those all died completely somewhere back in the 20th century.
Bosch
August 17th, 2009
1:28 pm
Like I wrote earlier, the Dems are failing at their jobs they were elected to do by caving into the GOP, and letting the ones with money win while the people continue to get screwed.
The 538 guy is scarily accurate. It’s like he has a voodoo stick or something.
md
August 17th, 2009
1:31 pm
“Well now – the Demons want Bush and the nation to fail, no matter what. It’s a genetic thing with them. Destroy an ything & everything that is good, positive, worthwhile, new, different. Such failure satiates their innermost prurient interests and perpetually angry and failed lives. Same old same old. Destroy it – and imagine that they themselves are able to feed personally upon the carcass of failure. It’s always been why the Nation spins ever downwards.”
Sounds like politics.
AmVet
August 17th, 2009
1:35 pm
Our task is to build movements that can act as a counterweight to the corporate rape of America. We must opt out of the mainstream. We must articulate and stand behind a viable and uncompromising socialism, one that is firmly and unequivocally on the side of working men and women. We must give up the self-delusion that we can influence the power elite from the inside. We must become as militant as those who are seeking our enslavement. If we remain passive as we undergo the largest transference of wealth upward in American history, our open society will die. The working class is being plunged into desperation that will soon rival the misery endured by the working class in China and India. And the Democratic Party, including Obama, is a willing accomplice.
Obama has expanded the assistance to our class of Wall Street extortionists through subsidies, loan guarantees and backup declarations to banks such as Citigroup. His stimulus package does not address the crisis in our public works infrastructure; instead it doles out funds to Medicaid and unemployment compensation. There will be no huge public works program to remodel the country. The president refuses to acknowledge the obvious—we can no longer afford our empire.
“Obama could raise a call to come home, America, from the military budget abroad,” Nader suggested. “He could create a new constituency that does not exist because everything is so fragmented, scattered, haphazard and slapdash with the stimulus. He could get the local labor unions, the local Chambers of Commerce and the mayors to say the more we cut the military budget, the more you get in terms of public works.”
“They [administration leaders] don’t see the distinction between public power and corporate power,” Nader said. “This is their time in history to reassert public values represented by workers, consumers, taxpayers and communities. They are creating a jobless recovery, the worst of the worst, with the clear specter of inflation on the horizon. We are heading for deep water.”
The massive borrowing acts as an anesthetic. It prevents us from facing the new limitations we must learn to cope with domestically and abroad. It allows us to live in the illusion that we are not in a state of irrevocable crisis, that our decline is not real and that catastrophe has been averted. But running up the national debt can work only so long.
“No one can predict the future,” Nader added hopefully. “No one knows the variables. No one predicted the move on tobacco. No one predicted gay rights. No one predicted the Berkeley student rebellion. The students were supine. You never know what will light the fire. You have to keep the pressure on. I know only one thing for sure: The whole liberal-progressive constituency is going nowhere.”
RealityKing
August 17th, 2009
1:35 pm
At least the Democrats will be able to count on their base. Surviving flower children of the 60’s, Blacks, progressively educated young and the ignorant with their hands out. They alone make up 40% of America.
Bosch
August 17th, 2009
1:37 pm
md,
From below – and here I thought you didn’t have a sense of humor.
Peadawg
August 17th, 2009
1:37 pm
Redneck, we need someone A LOT better than Sarah to represent our party.
Then again she does have more experience than our current president…yikes!
md
August 17th, 2009
1:37 pm
“Like I wrote earlier, the Dems are failing at their jobs they were elected to do by caving into the GOP”
How exactly does a party that needs 0 republican votes to pass legislation “cave into the GOP”?
md
August 17th, 2009
1:39 pm
“From below – and here I thought you didn’t have a sense of humor.”
If I didn’t, I wouldn’t be here. This is entertainment. Nothing here will ever change anything.
Bosch
August 17th, 2009
1:39 pm
Peadawg,
“Then again she does have more experience than our current president…”
What do you mean? She was never POTUS before.
booger
August 17th, 2009
1:43 pm
Never underestimate the power of the press. It will be a huge upset if the repubs win in the current media environment. The wagons will be circled when the going gets tough.
The comment about the ACORN generated census is probably not too far off the mark either.
Bosch
August 17th, 2009
1:43 pm
Okay, the Find a Five Challenge game was a little absurd today.
Peadawg
August 17th, 2009
1:44 pm
Ok, she DID have more experience than Obama before the election. Sorry for the bad wording.
@@
August 17th, 2009
1:44 pm
Another thing….well, a coupl’a things, jay.
GHWB lost due to his lack of support for Israel along with the fact that his lips said “raise taxes” when his teleprompter was saying something entirely different.
The Democrats “blew themselves up” along with Bill’s attempt at Hillarycare.
Democrats should step down off their “high” donkey. Get to know the American people for a change.
Bosch
August 17th, 2009
1:46 pm
Peadawg,
That is such an old lame argument. Try to be at least a little creative and unique in your ignorance.
Taxpayer
August 17th, 2009
1:47 pm
Nothing here will ever change anything.
I know otherwise.
I Report/ Vast White Wing Conspirator (-: You Whine )-:
August 17th, 2009
1:47 pm
And all this after only six months.
Imagine what heights Republicans will soar to after a year.
You the Man, Obozo!
Peadawg
August 17th, 2009
1:49 pm
“That is such an old lame argument.”
But with the “great” job he’s done so far, it looks like a valid argument.
md
August 17th, 2009
1:50 pm
“Nothing here will ever change anything.
I know otherwise.”
Good for you.
Bosch
August 17th, 2009
1:52 pm
Peadawg,
You’d hate him no matter what, so that doesn’t make your argument valid.
Taxpayer
August 17th, 2009
1:53 pm
Good for you.
Some of it was. Some was good for others. I’m not in this strictly for me.
Jake
August 17th, 2009
1:53 pm
@@ – GHWB was exposed as the elitist he is when he asked how long stores had scanners (about 15 years at that time, obviously he didn’t do any shopping he sent his slave to do that). This resulted in him being the only sitting prs in the country’s history to win a war and lose a subsequent re-election.
getalife
August 17th, 2009
1:53 pm
Yeah, cut me a slice of more gop destruction.
Geez.
Taxpayer
August 17th, 2009
1:57 pm
Jake
August 17th, 2009
1:53 pm
@@ – GHWB was exposed as the elitist he is when he asked how long stores had scanners (about 15 years at that time, obviously he didn’t do any shopping he sent his slave to do that). This resulted in him being the only sitting prs in the country’s history to win a war and lose a subsequent re-election.
I seem to recall equally uppity comments from others Republicans — then again, they are full of it. I think it was John McCain, for example, that said something about US citizens not wanting those menial jobs in the fields paying $50/hr. Stupid is as stupid does.