New Afghan strategy should be given time to be tested
Last month was the deadliest month yet for British and American troops, and August casualties are running at a similar record pace. Among the recent toll is Marine Capt. Matthew C. Freeman, killed Friday.
Freeman was from Richmond Hill, a little town not far from Savannah on the Georgia coast. The Pentagon announced another three American deaths today.
By next month, Gen. Stanley McChrystal is expected to submit an official assessment of the situation in Afghanistan to President Barack Obama, including recommendations on future troop levels. And like most of those who have experienced Afghanistan first-hand, McChrystal is pretty sobering about what improvements might be expected in that country, even with a long-term high-level commitment by the United States.
So what do we do? The way ahead is perhaps best illuminated by two questions that sound similar but in fact may have two very different answers:
1) What can we hope to accomplish in Afghanistan, given limits on the resources, manpower and patience of the U.S. and its allies?
2) What must we accomplish, at a minimum, in Afghanistan, regardless of those limitations?
We know, in rough terms, the answer to the second question. Afghanistan must not again become a refuge for al-Qaida terrorists plotting attacks against the United States and its allies; Afghanistan cannot become a base from which the Taliban and al-Qaida attempt to overthrow the government in neighboring Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation struggling to preserve its democratic form of government.
Those goals, while complicated, can probably be achieved with a less intense commitment of manpower and resources than we’re currently making in Afghanistan. And no matter what course changes we make, those goals will remain our bottom line, the minimum that our national security requires.
Answering the first question is more difficult. Even the most optimistic observers don’t argue that we can rebuild Afghanistan into a modern, functioning nation-state.
For one thing, you cannot “rebuild” what never existed in the first place. Afghanistan, a nation of 28 million largely illiterate people, has never been a modern, functioning state, instead transitioning through the years from feudal state to client state to chaos.
It may yet be possible, however, to create a loosely federated Afghanistan with a central government strong enough to carry much of the burden of keeping terrorists from operating on its soil. Toward that end, McChrystal and others recommend a considerable increase in the size of Afghanistan’s military and police forces, funded by U.S. taxpayers.
The situation in neighboring Pakistan and in Iraq offer at least some cause for hope. The Pakistani Taliban are in a bit of a retreat, but only because the Pakistani government has taken it upon itself to act against a Taliban threat that it finally came to perceive as deadly. Likewise, the situation in Iraq began to only turn when Sunni Iraqis grew sick and tired of the jihadists among them and helped to oust them.
It is far from certain that the Afghan people and government will take a similarly proactive hand in their own self-interest, and unless they do, chances of long-term success are slim. By all accounts, the government of Hamid Karzai, the prime minister likely to be re-elected later this month, is thoroughly corrupt and undeserving of the loyalty of its people.
However, with renewed attention, additional resources and a new strategy and leadership now being brought to bear, the American military seems prepared to ask for another year to see what might be possible in that country. Given the circumstances, it’s a reasonable request.
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162 comments Add your comment
George American
August 11th, 2009
4:10 pm
IF OBARMA AND HIS LACKEYS HAD 1/2 A SPINE, THEY WOULD USE THE SUPERIOR AMERICAN MILITARY TO ELIMINATE THE TALIBAN.
WHERE IS OILIE NORTH WHEN YOU NEED HIM?
Gandalf - First!
August 11th, 2009
4:11 pm
Gandalf is always #1!
Gale
August 11th, 2009
4:11 pm
How many major powers will try to bring order to Afganistan and fail before we understand that it will have to be done from within, and the Afgani people will have to be ready to do it themselves. We cannot create Western style order because they are not a Western culture. They are still primarily tribal. Any central government will have to recognize tribal loyalties.
md
August 11th, 2009
4:12 pm
Our so called nato allies already told Barry to take a hike. Must be time to pull the plug on nato and the un and bring the boys home. Let them man our borders and inject their pay into our economy and to he11 with europe. Let them protect themselves for a change.
@@
August 11th, 2009
4:13 pm
jay, I’m hoping that Dr. Abdullah wins out over Karzai in the election. That, I believe, would prove to be a great help in our efforts.
That said, Afghanistan is the least of our problems. Why this administration wanted to pick a fight with Russia is beyond me.
Don’t poke the bear.
ByteMe
August 11th, 2009
4:17 pm
Jay, you have an error: Answering the second question is more difficult. You already answered the second question at that point.
mike
August 11th, 2009
4:26 pm
I agree with Jay that we need to give the strategy time to work. Too bad he didn’t feel that way about the surge in Iraq:
“”President Bush and others are proposing to escalate our effort in Iraq…It is a futile gesture, a vain attempt to salvage what is already lost…We could lose the lives of many more U.S. troops, as well as adding many more billions of dollars to the bill..to pay for this war…In another six months or a year, if the surge fails and the reservoirs of public trust and faith are drained dry, a responsible, phased drawdown may no longer be politically possible. So, this may indeed be our last, best opportunity in Iraq, not to magically transform it into a success, but to manage its repercussions in a way in which we still exert some control over the course of events. It’s a chance we cannot afford to squander by chasing sweet but unattainable dreams. That’s how we got into this mess in the first place.”
Hmm. Sounds like Jay is much less skeptical when it is a Democrat who “escalates”. No big surprise there.
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
August 11th, 2009
4:38 pm
Well, looks to me like this Gandalf is No. 2, not No. 1. And even a kid knows what a No. 2 is.
Have a good night everybody.
Bud Wiser
August 11th, 2009
4:38 pm
Obowo the Unwise will do anything to divert attention from the economy, including sacrificing more kids in Afghanistan, and droning on about this failing health care crap.
I give you a short but accurate video of this astronomical failure called Obama.
Even you morons on the left should be able to sit through this one, because it excoriates GW Bush, and you demonstrate time and again your unfailing sense of blaming everything wrong in the universe on George.
Sit back, and be ready to puke at your clown of a “leader” when done.
Then, reflect on your own stupidity for continuing to support him.
Mrs. Godzilla
August 11th, 2009
4:42 pm
Mike
I agree.
With the democrats in charge, there is a lot less reason to be skeptical. (and with good reason…….)
Joey
August 11th, 2009
4:49 pm
Mike; Good point. Jay cannot help but be Jay.
But I suspect he will offer a justification for his double standard.
Meanwhile if President Obama’s supporters grow tired of supporting war prior to November 2012…. Will they Johnson him out of office?
Where is Papa Walter when we need him? Calling Brian Williams. Or Katie. Or Chris Matthews. Yeah, That’s the ticket. Chris Matthews stops the quagmire in Afghanistan.
Taxpayer
August 11th, 2009
4:49 pm
If Bush had only apprehended Gog and Magog in Iraq. He should have included them in that Deck of Playing Cards so the soldiers would have known who to be on the lookout for.
Taxpayer
August 11th, 2009
4:50 pm
Well, looks to me like this Gandalf is No. 2, not No. 1. And even a kid knows what a No. 2 is.
No! Tell me he’s not a Turd.
Soothsayer
August 11th, 2009
4:50 pm
Friends, if you want to truly understand how we got to the point we are now at with our economy, please read the following site: http://www.newamerica.net/files/Thomas_Palley_America%27s_Exhausted_Paradigm.pdf
It’s a long (34 pages) read but it is well worth it to truly understand what is wrong with America’s economy.
I Report/ I Am The Mob :-) You Whine :-(
August 11th, 2009
4:50 pm
Likewise, the situation in Iraq began to only turn when Sunni Iraqis grew sick and tired of the jihadists among them and helped to oust them.
Are these libs still angry about The Surge or what?
Why would our soldiers fight for these democrats when all they do is dis them and will eventually surrender?
mike
August 11th, 2009
4:51 pm
Mrs G –
If I had a dollar for every mindless partisan who told me that their transparent double standards are justified because they are “right”, I’d be a rich man. It is as common a tactic of mindless partisans as accusing the other side of being evil and demonstrates similar levels of delusion..
I know you think that Democrats are intrinsically superior. That level of thinking is what defines your political outlook.
pat
August 11th, 2009
4:54 pm
We should do the typical democratic move, declare we lost and pull the troops. After all they are so far away, they can’t really hurt us. That’s an awful long swim.
Dusty
August 11th, 2009
5:03 pm
Whooohoo with Democrats in charge, Mz Godzie,
Afghanistan can be three trillion in debt but everybody will have health care if they aren’t already dead. Those who are not dead can have counseling about how they can die. Afghans may call their protectors “stupid”. Drug cartels will soon be out of business because there will be no laws against drugs so every citizen is in a state of stuporous bliss (Right, getalife?) Food stamps will be given to all and jobs for every person only there will be no food and no jobs. There will be a stimulus for automobiles, as soon as the plants are built. The anti-war protestors will teach the Afghans how to protest their protectors.
Yes, mam, all we and the Afghans need is to have Democrats in charge. Change! Oh yes. Change…….downhill……
RW-(the original)
August 11th, 2009
5:09 pm
We know, in rough terms, the answer to the second question. Afghanistan must not again become a refuge for al-Qaida terrorists plotting attacks against the United States and its allies;
Well sure, but that should apply to anywhere. Good thing we stopped the Boogie to Baghdad plan in it’s tracks.
DoggoneGA
August 11th, 2009
5:14 pm
“Any central government will have to recognize tribal loyalties.”
THEY already know that. It’s US that needs to learn it.
Tom
August 11th, 2009
5:20 pm
How absurd all this is. The “troops” are there for one purpose – to die. The little “outposts” created are senseless. Surrounded forever by those who rightfully despise us. Just waiting, watching, taking their time to observe the attrition of the American arrogant fools. The little “battles” are senseless & useless and meaningless. A waste. There is nothing to “win” and no way to win it. Mountains. Tough, surviving people. Another of Missing-Link BushDrunk’s and his ignorant followrs’ ideas.
And Obama is stuck w this putridity. If you think Iraq has been a mighty “success,” you’re gonna love the outcome in Afghanistan. Praise Geesussah & Murcuh!! Duh.
I Report/ I Am The Mob :-) You Whine :-(
August 11th, 2009
5:23 pm
Craigslist ad-
TALENTED LEADERS needed to work for health care reform $11-16/hour
You libs have to pay people to be on your side?
hahahahahaha, oh my.
Dusty
August 11th, 2009
5:26 pm
RW(the original) 5:09
You said “Well, sure, but that should apply to anywhere Good thing we stopped the Boogie to Baghdad plan in it’s tracks.” Absolutely!
Yes, sir, we did stop Iraq from becoming a refuge for al-Quida terrorists plotting attacks against the United States and its allies. And I might add BUSH DID IT!
Soothsayer
August 11th, 2009
5:27 pm
I think we should ask the British first and then the Russians what they think about invading Afghanistan. Friends, our involvement in Afghanistan is nothing but a thinly-veiled attempt to assure that oil from the Caspian Sea region can flow to the West.
Normal
August 11th, 2009
5:28 pm
GEORGE AMERICAN: If you had half a brain you would know that mountain fighting removes any superiority our Armed Forces have over the Taliban.
The Taliban are very good at hiding under rocks…as are most politicians, but that’s just me.
Normal
August 11th, 2009
5:31 pm
Dusty, sorry doll, Bush did it all right. But have you been paying attention to the renewed bombing in Iraq. I’ve said this before that our presence there is forestalling the inevitable. When we leave, it will be civil war. This is going to happen unless you want to keep our troops there forever. I don’t.
They used to call Crazy Joe now they call me the batman!
August 11th, 2009
5:32 pm
What the heck is wrong with that Dusty person? Has he/she started drinking already? Gadalf, you can not count, (why am I not surprised?) — little mike, it seems you are the person who’s filled with double standards; sadly though, you cant see your own faults because of that big ole stupid sign that’s plastered to your forehead. I can’t recall who said this: “Sit back, and be ready to puke at your clown of a “leader” when done”, however we’ve already gotten a real good laugh off of George W. Bush…….I was real sorry to see him leave the whitehouse; I had some really good “who’s dumber Dumbya or a rock” jokes that I hadn’t used yet. If we’re lucky, maybe his baby brother will run in 2012 and I can bring them out again!!!
Normal
August 11th, 2009
5:32 pm
SOOTHSAYER: Right on! You live up to your name.
@@
August 11th, 2009
5:36 pm
You Anti-Bush’s War protesters were screaming for a war in Afghanistan.
You now have what you were screaming for.
Obama’s got this one. OR…
this one will have Obama.
Pogo
August 11th, 2009
5:38 pm
So, it was all anti-Bush rhetoric when you and the other liberal dinos here kept saying get out of Iraq and that the surge wouldn’t work, right Jay? That is pretty much what you are saying by this piece because our soldiers are dying almost on a daily basis in Afghanistan but now that Obama is in it is, “let’s give it a chance”. Your man can’t be wrong can he Jay? You are as full of FM as a christmas goose. You should really be ashamed.
DoggoneGA
August 11th, 2009
5:38 pm
“Yes, sir, we did stop Iraq from becoming a refuge for al-Quida terrorists plotting attacks against the United States and its allies”
Well yeah…it’s easy to stop something that NEVER WAS, now isn’t it? And it only cost us 4000+ and counting lives to do it too. Now THAT’S success.
Normal
August 11th, 2009
5:39 pm
DUSTY: Got your request about Josef, consider it donee…jus’ saying…
Bud Wiser
August 11th, 2009
5:42 pm
Mrs G, you could have stopped a little shorter on your previous proclamation, and not only been entirely truthful, but totally accurate as well.
What you said – “…With the democrats in charge, there is a lot less reason to be skeptical. (and with good reason…….”
What you should have said – …”With the democrats in charge, there is a lot less reason …”
Soothsayer
August 11th, 2009
5:46 pm
When the Russians invaded Afghanistan, we supplied the Mujahadeen with Stinger missles. This devastated the Russians because their standard mode of transport was the helicopter which was completely defenseless against Stinger missiles. Every time they took off they knew it was a suicide mission.
As we have painfully learned in Iraq and now Afghanistan, these people don’t need Superpowers anymore. IEDs do the trick just fine. I tell you after seeing some of those boys after getting hit with one of those it’s not pretty.
Getting rid of the Taliban is akin to “stomping out ants” before you know it they’re all up and down your legs stinging the **** out of you.
Let’s say we get Bin Laden. What then? Do you really think rest of these guys are going to want to have a line dance with us? Get real! This is an exercise in futility!
Normal
August 11th, 2009
5:47 pm
@@ : Afghanistan should have been first priority. Bush should have been the leader he thought he was and hunted down the man the wounded us so grievously and killed him. Then he could have come to us about Iraq and it would have been handed to him on a platter by a grateful and proud nation. But HE DIDN’T!
Now President Obama has the helm. Whether he succeeds or not remains to be seen. I just hope that this President listens to his Generals and not to somebody who has never seen a war except in the movies.
Normal
August 11th, 2009
5:48 pm
BUD…Droll, very droll…
j$
August 11th, 2009
5:49 pm
yes, the dems are in charge now.
Bet you didn’t know obama had a part in Lost in Space as IDAK:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOGA88yGJBQ
RW-(the original)
August 11th, 2009
5:50 pm
Normal,
Tell josef that his boycott of a computer program that handles moderation and one that Jay has very little control of is a tad silly on it’s face but it’s made meaningless if he’s just going to converse here through you.
In other words tell him to get back on here.
Dusty
August 11th, 2009
5:51 pm
Normal,
Soothsayer has repeated that”it’s oil” line so many time it is getting rusty. Please qive him a few squirts of 10W40.
Yep, Normal, there have been some bombing incidents in Iraq.. If they keep up, Iraq may have as many people murdered as Atlanta or is it New Orleans now. If the news people ever reported any good news, we might know what freedom means to them. It comes with human nature, Normal. They want freedom just like every other human being.
OH ..tell batman (as soon as they remove his straight jacket) that I don’t drink. And he has a great idea, Jeff Bush for President. Sounds great, Smart, knows how to govern and has a Hispanic wife. Yep, he’s the man. Great Idea!! Jeff Bush for President. Sarah Palin Vice President. (You can chuckle but Joe Biden makes me laugh. He’s good for something.)
Soothsayer
August 11th, 2009
6:02 pm
Regarding the placement of the Unocal Pipeline, a US Official delivered this ultimatum to the Taliban (via the Pakistani delegation acting as their interlocutors): “Either you accept our offer of a carpet of gold, or we bury you under a carpet of bombs.” (Ref: Jean-Charles Brisard and Guillaume Dasquie in “Forbidden Truth” (31) (Book’s Preface online-pdf format (32) )
@@
August 11th, 2009
6:02 pm
Normal:
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again….there was a good reason Bush didn’t linger in Afghanistan and Barack Obama is about to find out the hard way, why that was.
Bin Laden is in PAKISTAN!!!!!!
The Pakistanis, btw, are doin’ a helluva job.
Soothsayer
August 11th, 2009
6:03 pm
During the Soviets’ decade-long occupation of Afghanistan, Moscow estimated Afghanistan’s proven and probable natural gas reserves at around five trillion cubic feet. In the mid-1970s, production reached 275 million cubic feet per day.
But Afghanistan’s significance to the balance of energy and power in Central Asia stems from its geographical position as a potential transit route for oil and natural gas exports from Central Asia to the Arabian Sea.
Kamchak
August 11th, 2009
6:04 pm
In other words tell him to get back on here.
Testify, brother. Can I get an AMEN?
Soothsayer
August 11th, 2009
6:06 pm
Afghanistan + Oil = “Crusade against Terrorism”
Afghanistan could be more important to America’s oil supply than even Saudi Arabia. In 1997 BBC News reported that the American Oil company UNOCAL tried to construct a pipeline from The Caspian Sea.
The Caspian Sea is a California-size body of salt water — the world’s largest landlocked body of water — that may sit on as much as 200 billion barrels of oil, which would be 16 percent of the Earth’s potential oil reserves. Even at today’s low prices, that could add up to $3 trillion in oil. (compared to Saudi’s 250 billion barrels of oil and America’s own 22 billion barrels – New York Times.)
The pipeline was to run from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan to the Port of Karachi. However the Taleban refused. Until now America has not been successful in persuading the Taleban to change its mind.
I Report/ I Am The Mob :-) You Whine :-(
August 11th, 2009
6:06 pm
The White House said time and again that they weren’t pre-screening audience members. Then the woman turned to the crowd and said coyly, “He winked at me.” And that was from one of the only “skeptics” in the room.-ABC
Rent A Stooges.
Northern Songs LTD
August 11th, 2009
6:08 pm
Who is “Jeff” Bush??
Soothsayer
August 11th, 2009
6:08 pm
Afghanistan + Oil = “Crusade against Terrorism”
Afghanistan could be more important to America’s oil supply than even Saudi Arabia. In 1997 BBC News reported that the American Oil company UNOCAL tried to construct a pipeline from The Caspian Sea.
The Caspian Sea is a California-size body of salt water — the world’s largest landlocked body of water — that may sit on as much as 200 billion barrels of oil, which would be 16 percent of the Earth’s potential oil reserves. Even at today’s low prices, that could add up to $3 trillion in oil. (compared to Saudi’s 250 billion barrels of oil and America’s own 22 billion barrels – New York Times.)
The pipeline was to run from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan to the Port of Karachi. However the Taleban refused. Until now America has not been successful in persuading the Taleban to change its mind.
I could have sworn I put that in right.
Bud Wiser
August 11th, 2009
6:11 pm
OK, abnormal – what do you have to say about this?
KABUL – U.S. and NATO deaths from roadside and suicide bomb blasts in Afghanistan soared six-fold in July compared with the same month last year, as militants detonated the highest number of bombs of the eight-year war, figures released Tuesday showed.
Three U.S. Marines and a Polish soldier died in the latest attacks, setting August on course to surpass the record 75 deaths U.S. and NATO troops suffered from all causes in July.
Chew on that one, cracker chaser, I’m too busy to lecture the ignorant on the stupidity of their idol worship any more this evening; I have a softball (slow pitch, of course) game to pitch tonight, and its gonna be a hot one.
Dusty
August 11th, 2009
6:12 pm
Normal,
Osama ben laden has been holed up longer than a zoo bear in hibernation. He growls now and then but that’s about it. He is ineffectual and our troops did it. Then our troops freed Iraq from being a centerpice in the Middle East for terrorists.
What we have now is the Taliban, their own little set of fundamentalist Muslim Paki terrorists wanting to rule Afghanistan again.. I don’t doubt that Drug cartels and producers are backing the Taliban just as they back the revolutionaries in South America and now the bloody battle in Mexico.
That is bad news all around and I see no happy ending. Bush cleaned up Afghanistan but they are destitue in so many ways and fell back into drug support. I don’t think Afghans want the Taliban anymore than the people of Swat Valley did. They found out the hard way about the Taliban. Maybe Afghans will remember what they seem to forget or maybe they just get hungry.
Later…dinner time..
Soothsayer
August 11th, 2009
6:17 pm
“The U.S. Government’s position is that we support multiple pipelines… The Unocal pipeline is among those pipelines that would receive our support under that policy. I would caution that while we do support the project, the U.S. Government has not at this point recognized any governing regime of the transit country, one of the transit countries Afghanistan, through which that pipeline would be routed. But we do support the project.”
[ U.S. House of Reps., "U.S. Interests in the Central Asian Republics", 12 Feb 1998 ]
“The only other possible route [for the desired oil pipeline] is across Afghanistan which has of course its own unique challenges.”
[ "U.S. Interests in the Central Asian Republics", 12 Feb 1998 ]
“CentGas can not begin construction until an internationally recognized Afghanistan Government is in place.”
[ "U.S. Interests in the Central Asian Republics", 12 Feb 1998 ]
The Afghanistan oil pipeline project was finally able to proceed in May 2002. This could not have happened if America had not taken military action to replace the government in Afghanistan.