Economic ‘Dr. Doom’ predicts … more doom
Economist Nouriel Roubini, the infamous Dr. Doom who predicted the current economic crisis, posted his projections today about the course of unemployment. It is not by any means a pretty picture:
“Recent data suggest that job market conditions are not improving in the United States and other advanced economies. In the U.S., the unemployment rate, currently at 9.5%, is poised to rise above 10% by the fall. It should peak at 11% some time in 2010 and remain well above 10% for a long time….
But these raw figures on job losses, bad as they are, actually understate the weakness in world labor markets. If you include partially employed workers and discouraged workers who left the U.S. labor force, for example, the unemployment rate is already 16.5%; even temporary employment is sharply down. Monetary and fiscal stimulus in most countries has done little to slow down the rate of job losses as economies suffer from problems of insolvency, not just illiquidity, and as the fiscal stimulus programs are too small and not labor intensive enough. As a result, total labor income – the product of jobs times hours worked times average hourly wages – has fallen dramatically.”
I hope Roubini’s wrong this time. I’m sure Roubini himself hopes to be wrong. I’m also not sure about the notion that because someone was accurate in predicting the onset of this major recession, he or she is automatically more trustworthy about when and how it will play out. Insight doesn’t always work like that.
But all that said, Roubini’s argument makes sense. As he points out, “many manufacturing sectors are on a secular decline (autos, etc.) and employers are shedding jobs on a permanent basis; employment in the previously bubbly sectors (housing and related housing/real estate services, banking and financial services) is falling sharply and will not recover for a long time. The process of offshore outsourcing of both blue collar and white collar jobs is still in full swing. A lot of the job losses in the U.S. and in other advanced economies are structural rather than cyclical; many jobs will never come back.”
Not a pleasant prospect.
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115 comments Add your comment
getalife
July 14th, 2009
1:53 pm
Obama said employment will get worse but join the gop to get fed.
“Steele: I’ll Woo Blacks To GOP With “Fried Chicken And Potato Salad”
Yay, man.
I got the munchies.
Mrs. Godzilla
July 14th, 2009
1:53 pm
When the GOP kills an economy, they do a damn good job!
@@
July 14th, 2009
2:04 pm
…and we’re in debt up to our grandchildrens’ eyeballs to boot. To hear Obama’s supporters tell it, that’s icing on the cake.
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 14th, 2009
2:08 pm
Everyone is employed in the socialist state,
Everyone….
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 14th, 2009
2:10 pm
When socialistic, neofacists liberals start a spending spree they do a good job!
Jay please ban Mrs. Godzilla for using profanity! She’s such a potty mouth! I can’t stand it! Just sayin’!
Turd Ferguson
July 14th, 2009
2:11 pm
Warren Buffet basically stated the same thing. What else can go wrong? With these two clowns in office, Obama and “Foot in mouth” Biden…well, everything…Welcome to Obamanomics!!
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 14th, 2009
2:12 pm
Don’t worry about the debt! When Obamaflation hits, bread will be $1,000,000 a loaf!
But everyone will work,
Everyone works in the socialist society,
Everyone….
Trust me
July 14th, 2009
2:13 pm
Not to worry. The Republican solution of cut taxes on business but do nothing else is really working its magic here in Georgia. Things are great. Employers are begging folks to come to work. Low cost health care abounds. Traffic just could not be any better and gas flows freely from every street corner. Housing prices are still going up right along with property taxes. Lanier is full. Crap. Life is good in Perfect, Georgia. Just ask any Republican.
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 14th, 2009
2:14 pm
Joe Biden isn’t a good VP, he isn’t even a good person! I bet they lock the doors when he tries to get into church on Sunday, that may be why he give so very very little to charity. Even Charity doesn’t like Joe Bidnen!
Just Sayin’!
Everyone works in the socialist society,
Everyone….
Just sayin’
I Report :-) You Whine :-(
July 14th, 2009
2:15 pm
Mission Accomplished!
Obozo is da Man!
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 14th, 2009
2:16 pm
Life is good!
Everyone works in the socialist society,
Everyone…
Turd Ferguson
July 14th, 2009
2:16 pm
What we need is a couple trillion dollar stimulus package. Just ask Joe Biden.
Brad Steel
July 14th, 2009
2:16 pm
Robini would be more accurately described as Mr. Doom. He did NOT complete 4 years of post graduate doom studies, Not write the mandatory doctoral doom thesis, nor does he claim to be a doom expert or doom academic.
For real doom expertise, try the AM radio dial – especially the oh-so-funny and ever-so-chubby doom expert, Glen Beck. If Beck’s language is too complex for you, try anything that is not a diet book on the NYT noon-fiction best seller’s list. That is Doooommmm central for the angry and gullible.
http://www.nytimes.com/pages/books/bestseller/
Angry Black Man
July 14th, 2009
2:17 pm
I believe the economy will be just as bad as he predicts. America is bleeding jobs profusely, and there’s no end in sight. Even jobs that are available are being given to foreign workers coming to the U.S. on work visas. There was a bill in the U.S. House a while back that sought to double the amount of visas that could be issued. I don’t know if it passed in the form it was written, but I told co-workers that if it did, we were doomed.
I don’t think this economy will survive on service-based jobs, and that’s all that seems to be available now. We’re even importing nurses and doctors.
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 14th, 2009
2:17 pm
Jay! Trust me is using profanity! Ban him Please! Just sayin!
Everyone works in the socialist society,
Everyone…
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 14th, 2009
2:19 pm
BRAD STEEL! I too enjoy Glenn Beck! He is so very funny and full of wit!
Jefferson
July 14th, 2009
2:19 pm
If a company wants to offshore it’s labor, the CEO and board of directors should have to live in those offshore countries.
Trust me
July 14th, 2009
2:20 pm
I’m working on it, Gandalf.
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 14th, 2009
2:21 pm
Brad STeel? Was Dr. Doom your personal hero in the Marvel World? Got news Brad! He’s a villian…just sayin’
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 14th, 2009
2:22 pm
Jefferson! You talk funny! Why should the CEO and BOD live offshore? I guess you assume those jobs belong to Americans?
I Report :-) You Whine :-(
July 14th, 2009
2:23 pm
The Obama administration in May estimated that the annual deficit would hit about $1.84 trillion by the end of the fiscal year, an increase from February’s projection of $1.75 trillion. The administration also slightly revised upward its deficit estimates for 2010 and 2011, to $1.26 trillion and $929 billion, respectively.
Slumping tax receipts, particularly from corporations and individual investors, have contributed substantially to the widening gap, as has rising spending on social safety-net programs, economic-stimulus measures and aid to auto and financial companies.
Mission Accomplished!
ew
George American
July 14th, 2009
2:23 pm
More doom. What a big surprise!
Obamanation and his fancy group of northeastern elitists. Within the next few years there will be nothing but the government and their hypnotized robots. But not me and my type, we will be forming the next American revolution.
We HAVE to get back to real American values and ways. A good place to start would be reading the Bible and following God’s word (not Allah’s).
George American
July 14th, 2009
2:26 pm
Yes, by our great president, George W. Bush, “Mission Accomplished.”
We win. Iraq loses.
Trust me
July 14th, 2009
2:27 pm
Slumping tax receipts, particularly from corporations and individual investors, have contributed substantially to the widening gap…
It’s a lie, I say. Every good Republican knows for a fact that tax receipts go up as tax receipts go down. It is written in the Gospel of St. Reagan. So say we all.
Normal
July 14th, 2009
2:32 pm
Hey, Gandalf…Quit usin’ my line!!!
—————
Doom, doom, doom. Everybody gonna go broke, everybody gonna die.
This is new?
Peadawg
July 14th, 2009
2:34 pm
“When the GOP kills an economy, they do a damn good job!”
Yes Bush started it, BUT OBAMA IS IN OFFICE NOW AND ISN’T DOING A DARN THING ABOUT IT. Godzilla, YOU VOTED THIS MAN IN OFFICE. LIVE WITH IT! Has ANYTHING gotten better since he’s taken over? NO!
TnGelding
July 14th, 2009
2:37 pm
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 14th, 2009
2:12 pm
Everyone works, everyone eats, everyone gets health care, everyone has shelter, everyone is clothed, everyone has transportation, everyone is educated, everyone performs community service, everyone is happy and very few are in jail.
“The process of offshore outsourcing of both blue collar and white collar jobs is still in full swing. A lot of the job losses in the U.S. and in other advanced economies are structural rather than cyclical; many jobs will never come back.” (What are they thinking?)
Seriously, this is the result of decades of bad policy culminated by 8 disastrous years of neglect and irresponsibility. When Bush took office the GOP was saying we couldn’t pay off the national debt because it would upset the credit markets. I told them then that the surpluses were based on false assumptions and projections, and Bush made sure that was true.
Stick around, it’s going to get better. We had a lot of people in the workforce that needed to be home taking care of their children and this will facilitate that. Standard of living will be a little lower but quality of life will be much improved. Austerity will replace glutton and waste.
The stimulus will help some over the next 2 years and the jobs of the 21st century will help more. And those of us that aren’t paying any taxes, or very little, are going to have to start paying our fair share along with the most wealthy among us.
DebbieDoRight
July 14th, 2009
2:39 pm
WOW!!! Things are tough all over!! A good friend of mine has been out of work since October ‘08; and right now she’s down to her last $5K in the bank since she’d already raided her 401K — she’s had her house on the market since last year, no takers, and she pulled her two kids out of private school and they’ll now be starting public school in the fall. But, she still has it better than some people…..that’s the scary part!!
Republicans: How’d that trickle down theory work for ya? When did it start “trickling down”?
Trust me
July 14th, 2009
2:41 pm
TNGelding is Roubini. Nothing but talk of doom. Doom. DOOM!
Mrs. Godzilla
July 14th, 2009
2:44 pm
Peadawg,
1/2 right, step up for you.
Other than that, Pfui!
Redneck Convert
July 14th, 2009
2:51 pm
Well, my buddy Jim Earl says there’s a easy fix to this mess. Something about the Laugher Curve. Says it ain’t got nothing to do with laughing but it goes like this: The more you cut taxes, the more the guvmint takes in. So if you cut taxes to zero the guvmint ought to take in 100% more than it does now.
Just think about it for a minute. All of a sudden business people don’t have to pay taxes. They’re rolling in money. Which they’ll put to use by hiring more people. They’ll be out on the streets just begging people to come work for them. That is, if there’s no foreign workers to be had. And reglar people don’t have to pay taxes and will have lots of money, so the business people will really need to do some hard talking to get them to go to work for them.
And the guvmint will be able to pay China back for all the money it borrowed and start piling up the money. Pretty soon the guvmint will have to start paying us just to get rid of the money it’s building up. The lazy guvmint workers will finally have something to do–handing out 100 dollar bills to people they meet on the street.
Sounds like a fix to me. Have a good p.m. everybody.
DebbieDoRight
July 14th, 2009
2:52 pm
ABM: America is bleeding jobs profusely, and there’s no end in sight. Even jobs that are available are being given to foreign workers coming to the U.S. on work visas.
Even when the companies are turning a profit and did well for the fiscal year, (see IBM); they still send their jobs overseas. Cheap labor, bigger profits, not having to worry about providing medical and dental, is too big of a draw for most corporations.
Peadawg: Yes Bush started it, BUT OBAMA IS IN OFFICE NOW AND ISN’T DOING A DARN THING ABOUT IT. Godzilla, YOU VOTED THIS MAN IN OFFICE. LIVE WITH IT! Has ANYTHING gotten better since he’s taken over? NO!
What do you expect him to do in less than a year? Wave his magic wand? It took more than 6 months to get into this mess, why do you think it’s gonna take less than 6 months to get out of it? Are you using Reganomics? Or that new math; used mostly by Jethro Bodine, the double knot system?
TNGelding: Seriously, this is the result of decades of bad policy culminated by 8 disastrous years of neglect and irresponsibility. When Bush took office the GOP was saying we couldn’t pay off the national debt because it would upset the credit markets. I told them then that the surpluses were based on false assumptions and projections, and Bush made sure that was true.
Bush blew a surplus, instead of using it to pay down the debt, in a matter of months. Not one republican on this board had anything bad to say about that. They thought it was a GREAT idea!! Now, all of a sudden, they’re “fiscally” conservative and also “concerned” about the deficit!! The same people who, only last year, said we had a “strong viable economy”; and that all those Americans who were loosing their jobs were “whiners”.
Curious Observer
July 14th, 2009
2:54 pm
Sounds like a great poem in the making in the style of either Kipling or Poe:
. . . And it’s doom, doom, doom . . .
DB, Gwinnettian
July 14th, 2009
2:55 pm
Well, they do call it unemployment a lagging indicator for a reason.
Like Jay, I hope Doomy-guy is wrong.
TnGelding
July 14th, 2009
2:55 pm
Trust me
July 14th, 2009
2:41 pm
I thought that was pretty optimistic, especially for me. We’re sitting on $50 trillion in household wealth. We’re going to have to start using a little of it to keep the economy struggling until corporate America comes to its senses and stops laying off dedicated, experienced workers.
Trust me
July 14th, 2009
2:56 pm
That’s right Redneck. And, the only way the government will be able to stem the tide of all that tax revenue will be to increase taxes. It is the darndest thing but Reagan proved that it is true and he chiseled it with his own hammer and chisel and little hispanic guy in stone so that all could know and that they would remember, forever. And, it is nothing to be laffing at.
DB, Gwinnettian
July 14th, 2009
2:57 pm
Peadawg @ 2.34, you ask what Obama’s done. These folks are keeping track.
You’ll find a bunch of items that are directly related to the economy, and to protecting people who are adversely affected by it.
(and yeah, they’re keeping track of the broken promises too, as well they should.)
AmVet
July 14th, 2009
2:57 pm
“Has ANYTHING gotten better since he’s taken over? NO!”
Incorrect.
The verdict on the economy is still out. After decades of plundering, it will take a LOT more than six months to clean up the cesspool left behind. (Besides you cats gave BushCo eight years and to my knowledge NEVER said a word. Kinda blows your cred on the whole topic, don’t it?)
But in other areas he has undone numerous boneheaded bassackwards Georgie “policies” and signing statements.
And no, before you even go there, I didn’t vote for the Uppity One.
I predicted these very things would happen. To wit, Quagmire Part Deux in Afghanistan and Socialism Part Deux vis a vis Georgie’s bailouts.
He’s no peach but at least he doesn’t appear completely rotten to the core like his predecessor…
George American
July 14th, 2009
2:57 pm
You can just tell by the sniveling herein that Phill Gramm had it right when said we are a nation of whiners!
Gale
July 14th, 2009
3:02 pm
TNG: “those of us that aren’t paying any taxes, or very little, are going to have to start paying our fair share along with the most wealthy among us.”
Such as the bottom 40% who not only pay no tax, but receive “earned income credits”? Those folks? As someone said, “When you rob Peter to pay Paul, Paul will always vote for that.” It might be a different story if only people who actually pay income tax could vote.
TnGelding
July 14th, 2009
3:03 pm
DebbieDoRight
July 14th, 2009
2:52 pm
I suggested at the time a one-time rebate instead of permanent tax cuts. More could have been rebated later if the surpluses actually materialized. Oh, I forgot. The reduced tax rates actually increased government revenue. Yeah, after 3 long years of deficits and debt. $11 trillion in all over 8 years, plus $11 trillion in household net worth evaporating because of fuzzy math and risky schemes on Wall Street. But much of that will be recovered, eventually.
TnGelding
July 14th, 2009
3:05 pm
Gale
July 14th, 2009
3:02 pm
As much as I like the EIC concept, I’ve suggested it be discontinued or at least suspended. We simply can’t afford it, and probably never could.
getalife
July 14th, 2009
3:06 pm
All I want is some that gop food and another gop depression.
Yay baby!
DebbieDoRight
July 14th, 2009
3:10 pm
TnGelding: Oh, I forgot. The reduced tax rates actually increased government revenue.
Yep. Not to mention the two wars that “erroneously” never made into Bush’s budget predictions. He meant to put it in; but felt that it would just confuse too many people……..
Trust me
July 14th, 2009
3:12 pm
TNGelding,
did you mean to say that we are sitting on 50 trillion in household debt. Anyway, I was just funnin’ with ya. I happen to believe that this nation of old folks has to get used to seeing its standard of living decline quite a bit, on average. Of course, there will be the elite group including those that voted themselves enormous wads of money over their years in corporate america that will not find a need to cut back but the bulk of the working class will and that’s just for starters. We will be paying off debt forever and then some and it will come in the form of higher taxes and inflation and dollar devaluation and unretirement, etc. But, why decline into talk of more doom when we all know that life is what we make of it. We will acclimate. Air conditioning is a luxury as is satellite TV and the cell phone. Just let the creditors try to locate you once you are off the grid and living in a hut that is barely locatable with the best tracking dogs. After all, everything is truly relative. And, once people forget about that so-called ‘good life’ that they thought they had, all the better. Life is good. There. That’s better.
AmVet
July 14th, 2009
3:12 pm
You just gotta be amazed at the morons who not only gladly take it up the ___ they actually praise the guys who stuck it to them. And their kids. And their grand kids.
I guess the putz never knew anyone who worked at Enron. And I am SURE has nary a clue what the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act is or did.
Faithful, ignorant ostriches – the base of the modern GOP…
DebbieDoRight
July 14th, 2009
3:12 pm
Gale: It might be a different story if only people who actually pay income tax could vote.
I’m a little confused by that statement. Do you mean “people who actually pay….” could vote in Congress or the Senate on the proposals going forth?
Gale
July 14th, 2009
3:15 pm
Right with you TnG. When I first encountered EITC, my reaction was WHAT!!!! You want to give people MY money for doing nothing? Yes, removing that would put some money back into the pot.
Still, I would prefer to chuck all the income tax and switch to a consumption tax. Why tax people earnings? Tax what people spend so they have some control. Oh right, the government cannnot control it or make promises about it it I control my money.
DB, Gwinnettian
July 14th, 2009
3:15 pm
Off topic, but damn… this Burr Oak Cemetery-scam story just hit a lot closer to home for me, and most of us, I imagine.
DebbieDoRight
July 14th, 2009
3:21 pm
DB — your link didn’t work!!! But I heard of the scam and years ago, ever since the BigBusinessBoys, took over the georgia & SC islands, (St. Simon, etc); changed the property tax laws with their big money to politicians, scammed the locals out of property, and dug up the graves of slaves, throwing their bones in ocean, I had decided to be cremated.
Actually, it was really ever since I saw that movie The Poltergeist — imagine putting HOUSES on top of an ancient indian burial ground!!!