Can Dems win governor’s office? Yes. Will they? Well, that depends
Can a Georgia Democrat win the 2010 governor’s race?
Yes, absolutely. Today, Democratic prospects are brighter than either party thought possible just a year or two ago.
However, if you tweak the wording slightly —- as in, “Will a Democrat win the 2010 governor’s race? —- you get a very different question. My answer to that one would be “No, but …”
Let’s take a quick swing through the major candidates.
The nominal Republican front-runner is Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, but I’d be surprised if that’s the case a year from now. He carries too much personal and political baggage, and his GOP opponents are eager to make the most of it. The most recent revelation —- that an insurance company used front committees in Alabama to funnel $120,000 to Oxendine’s campaign —- is damaging mainly because it confirms the reputation he has built over the years.
Oxendine hopes to immunize himself from such attacks by running hard to the right. Apparently, he plans to draw support from those in the party for whom allegiance to conservative causes is more important than ethical problems or misuse of power. I doubt it will work, but the strategy has already forced Oxendine’s Republican opponents to run hard to the right to match him. That could have consequences in the general election.
Secretary of State Karen Handel is, judging from her record, an instinctive moderate. But in recent years she has apparently been told to abandon that approach if she hopes to win higher office in Georgia. She has followed those orders perfectly by playing to the base’s sense of persecution on issues such as voter ID and illegal immigration.
Handel’s gender is a plus, as is her unofficial status as protege of Gov. Sonny Perdue. While her lack of experience could backfire, I’d rank her the real GOP front-runner and the candidate the Democrats fear most.
State Sen. Eric Johnson, a Savannah architect, has the experience and intelligence of a major candidate. What he lacks are name identification, the money to get name ID and a passionate volunteer base. You don’t need all three to win, but with none of them, winning is impossible.
On the Democratic side, Thurbert Baker, the longtime attorney general, is thought by some to have a lock on support from his fellow African-Americans, which would make him a force in any Democratic primary. I’m not so sure. Baker has done little to transform that natural affinity into loyalty, and that failure could show at the voting booth.
State Rep. DuBose Porter, the House minority leader, is in some ways the Democratic counterpart to Johnson. He too is smart, experienced and lacks name identification.
But unlike Johnson, Porter can draw on the loyal support of Democratic House members throughout the state, which makes him an intriguing dark horse if others falter.
Until 2007, David Poythress served as head of the Georgia National Guard, retiring as lieutenant general. He had previously served as Georgia secretary of state and labor commissioner. However, those terms in elective office were back in the ’80s and ’90s, and in a ‘98 race for governor, Poythress wasn’t competitive. While his military credentials will prove helpful, I don’t see much hope of Poythress altering that outcome.
Of course, the man who beat Poythress in 1998 was Roy Barnes, who went onto become governor but served only one term before losing to Perdue. He has passionate supporters and passionate enemies, and is the acknowledged frontrunner on the Democratic side. At this stage, he’s probably the candidate the Republicans fear most.
So how can Republicans lose? First, by nominating the wrong candidate, most likely Oxendine. Second, by mishandling the state’s serious budget problems and doing little to address crises in transportation and education.
If they do either of those things, the Dems can win. If they do both, the Dems will win.
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188 comments Add your comment
Rightwing Troll
July 7th, 2009
7:23 am
My money is on Palin to win…
Mrs. Godzilla
July 7th, 2009
7:28 am
Poythress….by a nose.
As the GOP Churns
July 7th, 2009
7:50 am
Remind me again what the Republican party has done for the people of Georgia.
USinUK
July 7th, 2009
7:51 am
good god … Oxendine is STILL insurance commish??? he was questionable when I was living in GA back in the 1990s …
Joey
July 7th, 2009
8:04 am
Does the AJC Management regret its 2002 decision to use “News” Stories, Commentary and Op-Ed’s to force Barnes to conform with the AJC position on the Northern Arc and Teachers Organizations (Unions)?
Redneck Convert
July 7th, 2009
8:06 am
Well, Bookman didn’t even mention Neal Horsley. Sure, he’s got a little problem on account of doing You Know What with a mule, but he’s Conservative enough to make us rednecks vote for him. Heck, chances are pretty good that alot of GOP canadates have had a little run-in with mules or sheep or dogs or something like that, but we forgive pretty quick. Just look at this David Vitter. A few months ago after he was found out for hiring a Woman of the Night to punish him when he messed his diaper, he couldn’t of been elected dog-catcher. Now he’s a shoo-in for reelection to the US Senate. Us Conservatives got some wierd habits, but we’re willing to overlook them. Long as a canadate has Fambly Values and is a good Baptist.
And Bookman didn’t even mention us rednecks as the ones that decide elections in GA, not Those People.
Anyhow, you can count on it–the one that gets elected guvner of the great state of GA will be the one that wants to break off from the U.S. of A. and put Those People in their place. This canadate will promise to cut taxes some more and sort of hint that Atlanta won’t hardly get a dime if he’s elected. He’ll almost talk about stripping people buck-nekkid to make sure they have the right to vote.
That’s my opinion and it’s very true. Have a good day everybody.
Normal
July 7th, 2009
8:12 am
Oxendine will never make it. They have pictures of him having a late night romantic dinner with a Democrat…
catlady
July 7th, 2009
8:16 am
The Republicans have killed our state, almost single-handedly. They never met a donor they didn’t like, a rule they weren’t ready to break for someone with money, a photo-op moment they weren’t ready to cash in on. Johnson got into a pixxing contest with the governor, didn’t he? Oxendine has a shady reputation, and Handel has shown she is inept.
Of the Democrats, Baker is black so he won’t get the conservative white vote, and there’s not enough white Democrats in the state to propel him. Barnes will NEVER get the teacher vote, and there are a lot of us. Poythress sounds like a Yankee, so he is out. Porter has the good old white boy Southern kind of name, but he is hampered by the D and lack of recognition by any but the thinkers.
We need real and honest leadership; I doubt we get it.
Mort Merkel
July 7th, 2009
8:16 am
Great, we need excellent public servants and what runs – a kettle of fish.
ByteMe
July 7th, 2009
8:19 am
I’m not excited by any of them. Handel has turned into a “pander bear” and Roy is too old and has too much baggage. The rest are also-rans.
Where is the governor for the future of Georgia instead of the sordid and stained past?
Normal
July 7th, 2009
8:22 am
BYTEME: Is Lester still alive…;>)
bob
July 7th, 2009
8:27 am
asthegopchurns – after 100 years of total control, remind me why we would give it back to dems in ten. Unless you are one of those flaggers that think the dems were right to add conferderate flag to the state flag during the civil rights struggle.
Normal
July 7th, 2009
8:28 am
bob, I think those Democrats became Republicans…
jt
July 7th, 2009
8:29 am
ByteMe- you asked.
Where is the governor for the future of Georgia instead of the sordid and stained past?
jt answers.
http://www.lpgeorgia.com/excomm.php
As the GOP Churns
July 7th, 2009
8:29 am
Are there any Talmadges left. I think they may have started that fine southern tradition of a ham in every family or something like that.
As the GOP Churns
July 7th, 2009
8:32 am
Normal, there is no doubt that those Democrats became Republicans.
Brian
July 7th, 2009
8:33 am
If the best the Dems can offer is Barnes, don’t hold your breath Jay.
bob
July 7th, 2009
8:34 am
redneck- speaking of weird, how about those yankee dems re electing barney frank even after his boy toy was caught running a gay prostitution ring our of barneys apt. Barney said he did not know all those guys chasing gerbils were johns. The weirder part is even after Frank denied dems pressured banks to lower standards for home loans, he has come out and tried to lower standards again in the condo market and he thinks repaid tarp money should be given to low income people for home loans. Redneck, while you might think it strange for Vitter to hang out with a female prostitute, we would not find it strange or surprising to find you hangin with your buddy barney.
ByteMe
July 7th, 2009
8:35 am
jt: Hahahhahahahaha.
The LP party is the party of theory over reality. And the theory is mostly wrong. Sorry, but not for me. I don’t want the governing party to think that government is part of the problem, because they just use that as a cover to screw things up more. Thanks anyway.
Jay
July 7th, 2009
8:36 am
To Joey:
You mean the AJC editorial board harshly criticized a top Democrat, to the extent that it may have contributed to his defeat? You don’t expect people to believe that, do you?
Speaking for myself, I have no regrets whatsoever on the Northern Arc. It was the wrong project, designed to fuel a type of growth that has collapsed and is unlikely to ever recur, and spending billions to build it would have only accelerated our already serious transportation funding crisis. Barnes was wrong to champion it, and if that’s what got him defeated, so be it.
On the teacher question, as I recall the AJC board supported Barnes’ approach to tenure and other education reforms. Interestingly, that more restrictive approach is usually endorsed by conservatives, but here in Georgia when Barnes proposed it, the Republicans quickly seized the issue as a way to woo the teachers’ groups to their side.
Conservatism Leads to Paranoia
July 7th, 2009
8:37 am
There, so far, doesn’t look like a decent candidate in the bunch. Maybe someone will emerge who will move the State “out of the red.”
ByteMe
July 7th, 2009
8:39 am
Normal: if Lester was still alive, he’d be, what, 124 years old at this point?
jt
July 7th, 2009
8:39 am
Jay Bookman- In regard to banning Whiner. The following quote was from your Independence Day Op-ed.
“Freedom is hard because it’s really about letting the other guy do what he wants and say what he wants, even if you don’t much like it and think he’s wrong.”
bob
July 7th, 2009
8:40 am
normal, the record clearly showed they were dems as was most of the KKK including the democrat party grandfather, I mean Grandmaster, Robert Byrd. I understand why dems would want to run from this past, they had a lock on congress from Roosevelt to 1994 and during that time they did many things that they now would like to dump on repubs. Of course, the repubs get dumped on and say, thank you very much, may I have another.
AmVet
July 7th, 2009
8:40 am
OK, real quickly before I head out to keep the great American economic engine humming, a tongue in cheek recommendation to really PO the “base”.
Since the only guv (Ax handle Lester) who was a real god-fearing man who tried to keep Those People in their proper place is dead, two words:
Jimmy Carter!
jt
July 7th, 2009
8:43 am
ByteMe- Well then stick with the “sordid and stained” past.
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 7th, 2009
8:44 am
Let’s hope the citizens of this great state aren’t that stupid! Democrats are stupid liberal apologists who need a good @$$ whoopin’ to straighten out their thought process.
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 7th, 2009
8:47 am
AMVET: Jimmy Carter is almost as bad as your current hero, Barry “the muslim” Obama!
Normal
July 7th, 2009
8:49 am
Gandalf! Bless your heart!
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 7th, 2009
8:49 am
“Stupid is as stupid does” said Forest Gump. Must be the best way to describe our current national leaders!
As the GOP Churns
July 7th, 2009
8:50 am
I second AmVet’s suggestion.
Jimmy Carter for Governor.
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 7th, 2009
8:51 am
Barry wants to make nice nice with those Iranians who, through community activists with guns, made sure that the elections went according to script. They are like Acorn with guns! Amazing how a few guns can change the feel for things. Imagine if they tried that in America! Oh, wait, Barry will take our guns away before he tries that here.
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 7th, 2009
8:52 am
Nermel, why not play in traffic? With Guns?
USinUK
July 7th, 2009
8:53 am
Bob –
“Unless you are one of those flaggers that think the dems were right to add conferderate flag to the state flag during the civil rights struggle.”
yes, it was the Dems who added the Confederate stars-n-bars to the GA flag … but it was the GOP who used changing it back to nearly unseat Zell Miller in his second term and it was one of the reasons Barnes lost …
ByteMe
July 7th, 2009
8:56 am
jt: I’m hoping for the emergence of a third party that believes that government by the people for the people can be useful to the people.
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 7th, 2009
8:58 am
Third Parties lead to anarchy. Look how Clinton got elected the first time!
Normal
July 7th, 2009
8:58 am
But GANDALF, you make so happy! Every time I’m down in the dumps, I just think of you and Viola! I’m happy again…
USinUK
July 7th, 2009
8:59 am
Normal …
who is Viola? and what is she doing hanging around Gandalf???
Daedalus
July 7th, 2009
9:02 am
My guess is that Handel will win the GOP nomination and the general election.
Then she will proceed to do absolutely nothing to solve transportation or water infrastructure problems. She’s Sonny Perdue in a Skirt.
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 7th, 2009
9:03 am
EXPAT: Though I think everyone understands you point, Stars and Bars refer to the Offficial Flag of the the CSA. It had 2 red and 1 white stripe, a blue field with between 7 and 13 stars in a round pattern. The flag that flies over SC’s capitol and used to be on the GA flag is referred to as the Confederate Battle Flag. A link can be found here…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flags_of_the_Confederate_States_of_America
Nice to see you again EXPAT!
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 7th, 2009
9:04 am
EXPAT: It’s his daughter!
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 7th, 2009
9:04 am
And She is EZ!
As the GOP Churns
July 7th, 2009
9:05 am
And, all this time, I was mis-led to believe that the philosophy of the Republican Party is the one that ultimately must lead to anarchy. Well, no more yellow bricks for me. I’ve taken a different path.
USinUK
July 7th, 2009
9:05 am
GtG -
thanks for the clarification – me, I always thought Rep. Teper had a good idea – a caramel-colored flag with “Georgia” written in Coke-script.
jt
July 7th, 2009
9:06 am
ByteMe
July 7th, 2009
8:56 am
jt: I’m hoping for the emergence of a third party that believes that government by the people for the people can be useful to the people.
I don’t know why you would think that the Libertarians do not fit your criteria. They do not espouse complete dismantling of goverment.
As far as anarchy is concerned, we are flirting with it now. (as far as our legal system and elections are concerned.).
Gandalf, the White! (!)
July 7th, 2009
9:07 am
EXPAT: Or one with a whole bunch of cars bumper to bumper with the words “give me gridlock or give me death”
Northern Songs, Ltd.
July 7th, 2009
9:10 am
Sounds like Gandalf got up on the wrong side of the Balrog this morning.
USinUK
July 7th, 2009
9:10 am
GtG –
” “give me gridlock or give me death””
that has to be the most spot-on thing I think you have ever said in this blog or on W2W … well done.
jt
July 7th, 2009
9:10 am
USinUK-
Just curious.
During your recent sojourn to the Alps, did you see any signs of the economic downturn?
Normal
July 7th, 2009
9:16 am
Gandalf, now tell them the truth, it’s me in drag…and you love it!