Does political ‘imprinting’ drive party identification?
As they conducted polls the last few months, the folks at Gallup have been building a database of more than 123,000 subjects that allows them to chart party identification by year of birth.
As they note in their analysis, the biggest surprise is how closely the results follow the generational breakdowns in pop sociology. At least politically speaking, there really does seem to be something to the idea of generational identity. As they describe it:
· Generation Y (18 to 29) clearly is skewed fairly strongly in the direction of being either independent or Democratic in political orientation. This group constitutes a significant weakness for the Republican Party.
· Generation X (30 to 44) includes some of the strongest support for Republicans. For whatever reasons, the Democratic over Republican gap among Generation Xers, particularly those ages 37 to 43 at the heart of this generation, is on a relative basis much closer to parity than for any other age group with the exception of those in their late 60s.
· Baby Boomers (45 to 63) skew Democratic in their political orientation, with the Democratic advantage reaching a peak at ages 58 and 59.
· Seniors have a more mixed pattern of party identification, with Republicans gaining on a relative basis among those in their late 60s, but with Democrats doing better as Americans age into their 70s and early 80s.
Their thesis, which makes sense to me, is that longterm political identification is influenced “by the unique circumstances that surrounded the coming of age of the generations.” In other words, it’s set pretty early, driven by the political environment that exists as people start to become more aware and involved. To borrow an example from another arena, I’m a lifelong Red Sox fan because my father happened to have been stationed at a military base in New England right at the point I began paying attention to the sport. But I’m a Steeler fan because I didn’t start following football until a few years later, when we were stationed outside Pittsburgh.
In grossly general terms, it’s almost like an imprinting process, in which newly hatched chicks begin to follow the first leader they see. For one generation it might be Reagan; for another it will be Obama.
As Gallup puts it:
“Baby boomers, as is well known, grew up in the tumultuous age of civil rights, Vietnam, Woodstock, and Watergate. It is certainly possible that these events have marked this generation in a more Democratic or liberal direction for life. Many Generation Xers came of age during the Reagan-Bush years (1980 to 1992) or the “Republican Revolution” marked by the 1994 midterm elections. Today’s Generation Y has reached maturity in a time period largely marked by the administration of George W. Bush, and certainly for many the nascent Obama administration is a major formative factor in their political orientation.”
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© 2009 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
97 comments Add your comment
Truth
May 14th, 2009
9:32 am
You are a joke Jay.
georgian by birth floridian because I'm lucky
May 14th, 2009
9:34 am
Jay I do feel it is slightly getting ahead of yourself.
You claimed Obama WILL be for the next generation.
I would say though that each of the other examples you gave had at the least a successful tenure or were percieved good.
It has been a little over 100 days since Obama has taken office. I doubt that you were a steelers fan or Patriots fan after only 150 or so days of living in the area.
If you had made up your mind that fast one would be within their right to call you a fairweather johnson.
Here is hoping for the best from our president, however a lil early to claim him as the next great political leader, as proof by others have had higher ratings through this point in their presidency and some turned out to be horrible failures, in terms of approval ratings.
Was there anything I said that is uncorrect??
Dave R
May 14th, 2009
9:44 am
Except for being a Red Sox fan, I pretty much disagree with the article as a whole.
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
9:59 am
aka, the ‘herd’ mentality in politics. Who knows, it might hold for the masses.
Billy Bob
May 14th, 2009
10:00 am
Interesting data, Mr. Bookman.
The area of greatest interest to me in the data is the sharp increase in Republican identification at age 22 to 26 and the associated decline in Democratic identification. One can only assume that this “change of political heart” occurs as many youngsters exit the closistered university life and enter the real world of full-time employment and it’s associated government taxation. The draw to the Republicans comes from both the Dems and Independents.
The next area of interest is the inflection point at in Republican and Democratic identification at approximately age 40-42 or so as many of those Independents begin to transition more heavily to Democratic affiliation. I have no stock answer for why this happens but I’d be interested in somebody else’s take on this second movement (an uncertain but powerful movement, not unlike the second movement in Beethoven’s Ninth).
The movement at age 58 seems to be a reawakening of sorts for our generic political animal. He moves back to the Republicans while the Democratic identification stalls.
It’s all great entertainment, but ultimately how do these people vote? Independents must pull the lever, generally, for one of the other Parties.
Still, nice article.
Dave R
May 14th, 2009
10:04 am
After all, it got Hope & Change elected without any qualifications . . .
Joey
May 14th, 2009
10:06 am
Sorry Roger.
Politics swings like a pendulum do.
Y’ers like Democrats and Boomers might too.
X’ers are Conservative and pretty much alone.
Gallup has spoken. We all can go home.
Those aggravating but consistant pendulums. They won’t stay where you tell them too. And damn-it-all they repond to forces.
getalife
May 14th, 2009
10:08 am
After all the outrages and failures of both parties, there should be more Independents.
I Report :-)/ You Whine :-(
May 14th, 2009
10:08 am
Yeah, all the teenagers can think about nowadays is Lewinskies, which they learned from Klintoon.
ew
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
10:08 am
No way in hell will this Baby Boomer ever turn Republican.
Dave R
May 14th, 2009
10:12 am
Color me shocked, Susan. That would require independent thought.
Goldie
May 14th, 2009
10:17 am
President Obama represents the beginning “imprint” for the 21st century… the Repubs still represent most of what’s so distasteful about the 20th century — scapegoating groups of people, ruling by power of fear, and a constant longing for the “glorious” days of the past.
DB, Gwinnettian
May 14th, 2009
10:18 am
Gosh, thanks for the earworm, Joey. Dang you to heck!
bobbies on bi-cycles two by two…
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
10:19 am
Jay,
I have not read the article but is this data actually plotted versus year of birth or age. You stated year of birth yet Billy Bob, for example, is interpreting it as though it were versus age. The graphs are also labeled with the word, ‘age’. This is very mis-leading.
ty webb
May 14th, 2009
10:20 am
Susan,
I’m sure the Republicans are real torn up about it too.
DB, Gwinnettian
May 14th, 2009
10:21 am
Speaking of chicks, I think the theory posited is interesting, but you have to ask the “chicken or egg” question too. That is, does the imprinting happen just because they were hatched, or did the leader come to power because his/her message was acceptable to enough people to allow the imprinting to happen?
To get further into this would require my actually reading the linked piece, which I’ve not the time for this am. Later, all.
‘cept to say Taxpayer @ 9.59, I don’t think that chicks are grouped into herds. Maybe in Texas, but not most places.
Joe Matarotz
May 14th, 2009
10:21 am
Fascinating.
cranky old man
May 14th, 2009
10:30 am
Hmm. I’m not much into sports, but I do remember why the Dolphins are my favorite NFL team. When I first learned about football when I was 6, my favorite TV show was “Flipper.” As far as fitting into these statistics, I was born in 1965, and I could probably be described as Democratic-leaning independent. I’m with the Democrats on most economic issues, and with the Libertarians on most everything else.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
10:31 am
irrelevant one @ 10:12,
Well good morning, stud muffin. I’d color you pale pink after seeing you with your skivvies off last night.
Oh Really....
May 14th, 2009
10:35 am
Dave R blesses the world with this nugget:
“Except for being a Red Sox fan, I pretty much disagree with the article as a whole.” Well Dave R, the world was waiting with bated breath to hear what you thought.
Whiner gives us this brilliant insight: “Yeah, all the teenagers can think about nowadays is Lewinskies, which they learned from Klintoon.”
As if any normal teenager has ever thought of much else. And yeah, Clinton and Lewinsky were the first to come up with this idea. All of today’s teenagers learned it from Clinton. Maybe they can learn S&M from Cheney.
Bosch
May 14th, 2009
10:39 am
Dave R doesn’t think Obama is qualified to be President. Shocking.
Yeah,
RW-(the original)
May 14th, 2009
10:41 am
Of course anyone that believes this nonsense is incapable of independent thought which is probably why Jay B buys it.
Of the four events listed as I was coming of age the civil rights movement is the only one I ever thought of in political terms and it shaped my conservatism because I truly believe that people should be judged by the content of their character rather than physical attributes. The others were a war a concert and a crime, but maybe those are what serves as guiding lights for moonbats.
Got to head to the forest though.
Later!
Tank
May 14th, 2009
10:42 am
Wow! What an intriguing prospect.
This is old news, Jay. We discussed this about a month ago.
Please continue your efforts on Monster, Careerbuilder and AJC HotJobs (well maybe not there).
hedn2058
May 14th, 2009
10:44 am
Gallup’s poll is missing an important part of the equation: Generation Jones, born 1954-1965, between the Boomers and Generation X. Google Generation Jones, and you’ll see it’s gotten a lot of media attention, and many top commentators from many top publications and networks (Washington Post, Time magazine, NBC, Newsweek, ABC, etc.) now specifically use this term.
Unlike pollsters who are up with current generational trends, Gallup is still using old school generational delineations. By lumping part of GenJones with Boomers, and part with GenX, Gallup’s generational data is seriously flawed. Several top pollsters—including Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen— have shown that GenJones’ political behavior and voting patterns are clearly distinct from its surrounding generations.
It is important to distinguish between the post-WWII demographic boom in births vs. the cultural generations born during that era. Generations are a function of the common formative experiences of its members, not the fertility rates of its parents. Many experts now believe it breaks down this way:
DEMOGRAPHIC boom in babies: 1946-1964
Baby Boom GENERATION: 1942-1953
Generation Jones: 1954-1965
Generation X: 1966-1978
Here is a relatively recent op-ed in USA TODAY about GenJones as the new generation of leadership:
http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20090127/column27_st.art.htm
getalife
May 14th, 2009
10:45 am
“Republicans unhappy with Dick Cheney as the party’s top spokesperson — but too afraid to say so on the record.”
Scared of dick and rush.
Weak.
Bosch
May 14th, 2009
10:46 am
getalife,
Um, well, wouldn’t you be afraid of old Dickey if you were in the GOP – he does have a record of shooting people in the face and all.
Bosch
May 14th, 2009
10:47 am
getalife,
And if Rush got hold of ya’ and sat on ya’…….well, that wouldn’t be so hot either.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
10:57 am
ty webb @ 10:20,
Me too. You crying along with them?
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
11:00 am
Well, they should retake this survey after this program has had a chance to work its way through our society. Whoopeeeeee.
TRENTON, N.J. — Pfizer Inc. is unveiling a new program Thursday that will let people who have lost their jobs and health insurance keep taking some widely prescribed Pfizer medications _ including Lipitor and Viagra _ for free for up to a year.
The world’s biggest drugmaker will provide more than 70 of its prescription drugs at no cost to unemployed, uninsured Americans, regardless of their prior income, who lost jobs since Jan. 1 and have been on the Pfizer drug for three months or more.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
11:01 am
Bosch @ 10:47,
Double EWWWWWW! I’ll bet you could smell the stench of Rush before he got 2 miles within your range.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
11:04 am
Taxpayer @ 11:00,
Just what we need, a bunch of blind rednecks walking around with a stiff one sticking straight out.
Joey
May 14th, 2009
11:12 am
I am so releived. I am no longer a danger to my Country.
Miss Janet has recalled her “The Right Wing is a Terrorist Incubator” report. I seems that: “An employee sent it out without authorization.” I am sure she ment a former employee.
ty webb
May 14th, 2009
11:19 am
Susan,
No, I’m not crying because of you not ever becoming a republican. I’m crying because of the tragic condition of our public education system which probably had a hand in how you form your opinions.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
11:26 am
ty webb @ 11:19,
Are you? Really? Ahhh, how sweet!
getalife
May 14th, 2009
11:31 am
Good points Bosch .
If they can’t stand up to dick and rush, they are too weak for national security.
jt
May 14th, 2009
11:31 am
Independent=Intelligence
R & D= Sheeple
BDAtlanta
May 14th, 2009
11:41 am
Oh Really,
S&M from Cheney…Good one!
Ty Webb at 11:19,
You’re obviously a Boortz fan. What is Boortz telling you to think today?
Oh Really....
May 14th, 2009
11:42 am
jt = douchebag
getalife
May 14th, 2009
11:43 am
Roberta McCain: Limbaugh “Does Not Represent The Republican Party That I Belong To”
I bet his Mom does not apologize but John will.
Weak.
Night Train
May 14th, 2009
11:44 am
Bosch, have you taken a ride in a car with your poster boy, Teddy lately?
DB, Gwinnettian
May 14th, 2009
11:49 am
Wow, Night Train @ 11.44–ancient material much?
I hear Tricky Dick might be bugging some offices!
DB, Gwinnettian
May 14th, 2009
11:50 am
hedn2058, interesting link, thanks.
Maybe I just liked it because I was Jonesin’ for a generation myself…
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
11:52 am
Uh-oh, someone’s going to have to apologize…
Rep. Shadegg Dismissed Rush Limbaugh As “Just A Television Personality”
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/05/14/shadegg-rush-climate/
jt
May 14th, 2009
12:03 pm
“it’s almost like an imprinting process, in which newly hatched chicks begin to follow the first leader they see”
That is a perfect description of the habits AND intelligence of the R & D party sheeple.
Are you my mommy? Are you my mommy?
jt
May 14th, 2009
12:05 pm
Are you my mommy?
What a good book.
jt
May 14th, 2009
12:13 pm
Oh Really….
Your timing was brilliant. The content was classic. Good job.
I give a 9.
Dennis
May 14th, 2009
12:18 pm
Nixon is dead and he paid the price for his criminal activites promptly after being found out. Ted on the other hand ………….
Midori
May 14th, 2009
12:20 pm
Nancy Pelosi: CIA Lied To Me
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/14/nancy-pelosi-cia-lied-to_n_203507.html
I’m with Nancy: RELEASE THE BRIEFINGS!!!!
Oh Really....
May 14th, 2009
12:24 pm
jt,
“sheeple” how original.
any chance you could use “bed wetter,” “hippie,” “pinko,”bolshevik,” or “libral media”? these hackneyed terms would update your avatar’s trendy lingo.
jt
May 14th, 2009
12:28 pm
Oh Really…. Thanks for the suggestion. I will try. Why did you only give me “hackneyed terms” for the left side of the R & D party.?
You bolshevik!
ty webb
May 14th, 2009
12:31 pm
BDatlanta,
Sorry, not listening to Boortz today. I do like him though. So only Boortz fans are critical of the public education system?
Redneck Convert
May 14th, 2009
12:37 pm
Well, that’s about the dumbest chart I ever seen. I can’t tell if the bottom row means the year of birth or the age of the person. Bookman’s done outdone hisself, even for a librul.
Have a good p.m. everybody.
Joe Matarotz
May 14th, 2009
12:41 pm
Mark down May 14th, 2009 on your calendar. Today is the day that HRH Pelosi decided that the CIA and the Bush administration misled her and the Congress. Evidently she did not know this yesterday. What do you think happened between yesterday and today to bring about this revelation?
I think Nancy Pelosi is as sharp as a bowling ball. That must be her number one qualification as leading Democrap in the country.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
12:48 pm
I don’t give a rat’s @ss who all goes down, as long as Cheney and Rummy are carted off in handcuffs and fitted for orange jumpsuits.
This is just a blatant attempt by conservatives on Capital Hill to prevent any prosecution. There is plenty of evidence to lead directly to the people who authorized the use of torture and turned a blind eye to numerous acts of homicide during interrogations.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-05-05/how-many-were-tortured-to-death/
md
May 14th, 2009
12:49 pm
Simple explanation.
Its the haves and have nots as they move through life.
Most young voters are always have nots, so they vote with their hand out. Whichever party promises the most goodies for free. College kids love free, as do most kids.
The middle represents the mid-life success or failure. The successful ones don’t particularly care to pay taxes for the ones that weren’t motivated to succeed, and the ones that haven’t suceeded yet still have their hands out.
The older group tends to show more success for all as their investments, however large or small, give them some comfort knowing they have done ok or downright wonderful.
Then the last segment of age reflects the “holy sh*t” phase where they realize they didn’t save near enough as their bodies are deteriorating at an enormous rate and its back to uncle sugar with their hand out.
Bosch
May 14th, 2009
12:54 pm
Night Train,
Um, I don’t know anybody named Ted – so I guess the answer is “no” I haven’t been riding around in a car with someone named Ted – who. is. the. poster. boy. for something.
How random.
Bosch
May 14th, 2009
12:55 pm
Excuse me Night Train –
Teddy – again, nope, no friends named Teddy.
Bosch
May 14th, 2009
12:57 pm
md,
Stereotype much?
Truth
May 14th, 2009
12:58 pm
First of all, Susan’s call for arrests shows her extremist views. Secondly, I am in that 18-29 range and me and all of my friends are way closer to a Rep. than a Dem. I dont get where these numbers come from. Most everyone I know and hang around in this age bracket sees Obama as a joke!
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
1:02 pm
Truth wouldn’t know the truth if it knocked him/her/it up the side of the head.
pat
May 14th, 2009
1:04 pm
Perhaps to the mulititude of sheep out there. Using a brain separates one party affiliation.
md
May 14th, 2009
1:05 pm
Bosch,
More like my life history.
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
1:05 pm
Jay should just give folks a series of charts with no labels so they can make up results that don’t conflict with facts.
caz1158
May 14th, 2009
1:09 pm
Who does Gallup poll? I know of no one (friends/family) that has ever been polled.Probably Jay.
md
May 14th, 2009
1:10 pm
“Jay should just give folks a series of charts with no labels so they can make up results that don’t conflict with facts.”
Considering most charts rarely use all the variables in the equation to arrive at the “facts”, it wouldn’t make much difference.
RetLTC
May 14th, 2009
1:16 pm
S&M from Cheney! That’s a classic, Oh Really.
Truth
May 14th, 2009
1:17 pm
Susan… Go take your meds before they put you in the padded room again!
jt
May 14th, 2009
1:19 pm
caz1158
Gallopp polls people who habitually watch “Kate plus eight” and “Ghost hunters”.
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
1:20 pm
Well, if you know the equation, then the chart’s just for show anyway. Something to justify the expensive projectors and what not.
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
1:21 pm
Contrary to urban legend, Ghost Hunters is not habit forming.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
1:24 pm
Lies @ 1:17,
You got any on you? Some of the good stuff? I know you had some last week.
Truth
May 14th, 2009
1:25 pm
Taxpayer… All I a saying is that I dont see where these numbers come from. Why hasnt anyone I have ever know been “polled”? I just find it wierd. I do know many inner 285 people that are in the same bracket that are Obama fans. There must be something in the water.
Fly-On-The-Wall
May 14th, 2009
1:34 pm
I’m a little concerned when I hear someone state that Susan Meyers’ opinions are because of the way she was taught in school (i)”I’m crying because of the tragic condition of our public education system which probably had a hand in how you form your opinions.”(/i) So how should a PUBLIC educational system FORM people’s opinions? This sounds like a re-education camp to me and not real education.
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
1:35 pm
“Does political imprinting drive party identification? If you get kicked enough times with a boot that has a big “R” or “D” raised letter on it, then yes, political ‘imprinting’ can drive party identification. Anyway, I don’t see why you really even need to ask such a question when the answer is all to obvious for anyone that has lived through a few administrations. For, regardless of which party is in power, there will be those that get, well, what’s that word I’m looking for, the one that rhymes with screwed. Someone will always be asking, “Did you get the license number of that truck that just ran over me?” or something like that. You know what I mean.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
1:35 pm
No way was this a d@mn accident.
Washington Times Runs Photo Of Obama Girls With Story Of Murdered Schoolchildren In Chicago
http://gawker.com/5253522/washington-times-runs-photo-of-obama-girls-with-story-of-murdered-schoolchildren-in-chicago
Fly-On-The-Wall
May 14th, 2009
1:35 pm
Dang! I forget what the HTML tags are in this blog. Sorry.
DebbieDoRight
May 14th, 2009
1:36 pm
Color me shocked, Susan. That would require independent thought.
DaveR……….Independent thinking? Republicans?!?!! HAHAHAHA OMG you are too funny!!!
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
1:39 pm
DDR @ 1:36,
Be gentle with him. He’s “fragile.” And all pink-looking.
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
1:42 pm
I was not picking on you, truth. In fact, I don’t think that there is anything unusual about a person seeking out other persons with similar likes and dislikes. So, I think that it is likely to be very common to hear ‘groups’ of people identifying with similar things.
jt
May 14th, 2009
1:48 pm
You heard it here first. ( I got yelled at earlier for “Trendy Lingo”.)
Susan Myers subscribes to a new catchphrase called NEO-LIBERALISM.
She’s a NEOLIB.
I’m not cutting you down or nothing>
Just an observation.
jt
May 14th, 2009
1:49 pm
“Contrary to urban legend, Ghost Hunters is not habit forming.”
just stupid
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
1:54 pm
Careful now, there might be a “Ghost Hunter’s” fan club lurking about.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
1:54 pm
jt @ 1:48,
Proud of it too.
Bosch
May 14th, 2009
1:56 pm
I’m moving to Barcelona. I hear the air does wonders for you. Adios blogger amigos.
Bosch
May 14th, 2009
1:57 pm
Ohhh. Peter Max is coming to Atlanta. Cool.
md
May 14th, 2009
1:58 pm
“So how should a PUBLIC educational system FORM people’s opinions?”
It shouldn’t. It should present the facts and let the students form their own opinions. But todays “facts” tend be be skewed a bit. That is why the kid is suing in CA. Teachers need to keep their opinions to themselves, or find another line of work. Usually hard to do when taking orders from a union or a left/right leaning administration.
Dave R
May 14th, 2009
2:00 pm
Debbie, you continue to confuse me with a Republican, which is why you can never win an argument with me.
Susan will never leave her Democrat party for another, because she is comfortable being a drone. Leaving the Democrat party for any other party requires independent thought. She’ll never have one.
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
2:02 pm
Then again, some people’s ‘facts’ are a matter of faith.
jt
May 14th, 2009
2:02 pm
Has there been a proper definition for a NeoLib?
There is one for the NeoCon.
md
May 14th, 2009
2:04 pm
Pelosi releases version 99999…………… today.
You’ve just got to love politicians. The consumate entertainers.
Too bad thats not why we sent them there.
jt
May 14th, 2009
2:05 pm
Sheeet, nevermind. I thought that I discovered the term. this from wiki-
In the United States, neoliberalism can also refer to a political movement in which members of the American left (such as Michael Kinsley, Robert Kaus, Mickey Kaus, and Randall Rothenberg) endorsed some free market positions, such as free market economics and welfare reform.[3][4] This term should not be confused with new liberalism, which is also used in the United States.
md
May 14th, 2009
2:07 pm
“Then again, some people’s ‘facts’ are a matter of faith.”
If that refers to the Cali kid, it was not he that was in front of the class. Had it been, I can only imagine the screaming coming from the left.
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
2:11 pm
Screamers to the left of me, Yellers to the right, Here I am. Stuck in the middle…
md
May 14th, 2009
2:12 pm
I resemble that.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
2:15 pm
jt @ 2:05,
Don’t feel too bad. It happens in the best of families.
jt
May 14th, 2009
2:25 pm
But Susan-
Are you a NEO-LIB or LIB?
Taxcheat- Stealers WWheel is better than Adam Ant.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
2:53 pm
jt @ 2:25,
Whatever you want me to be. Just don’t get the uzi out, bud.