Does political ‘imprinting’ drive party identification?
As they conducted polls the last few months, the folks at Gallup have been building a database of more than 123,000 subjects that allows them to chart party identification by year of birth.
As they note in their analysis, the biggest surprise is how closely the results follow the generational breakdowns in pop sociology. At least politically speaking, there really does seem to be something to the idea of generational identity. As they describe it:
· Generation Y (18 to 29) clearly is skewed fairly strongly in the direction of being either independent or Democratic in political orientation. This group constitutes a significant weakness for the Republican Party.
· Generation X (30 to 44) includes some of the strongest support for Republicans. For whatever reasons, the Democratic over Republican gap among Generation Xers, particularly those ages 37 to 43 at the heart of this generation, is on a relative basis much closer to parity than for any other age group with the exception of those in their late 60s.
· Baby Boomers (45 to 63) skew Democratic in their political orientation, with the Democratic advantage reaching a peak at ages 58 and 59.
· Seniors have a more mixed pattern of party identification, with Republicans gaining on a relative basis among those in their late 60s, but with Democrats doing better as Americans age into their 70s and early 80s.
Their thesis, which makes sense to me, is that longterm political identification is influenced “by the unique circumstances that surrounded the coming of age of the generations.” In other words, it’s set pretty early, driven by the political environment that exists as people start to become more aware and involved. To borrow an example from another arena, I’m a lifelong Red Sox fan because my father happened to have been stationed at a military base in New England right at the point I began paying attention to the sport. But I’m a Steeler fan because I didn’t start following football until a few years later, when we were stationed outside Pittsburgh.
In grossly general terms, it’s almost like an imprinting process, in which newly hatched chicks begin to follow the first leader they see. For one generation it might be Reagan; for another it will be Obama.
As Gallup puts it:
“Baby boomers, as is well known, grew up in the tumultuous age of civil rights, Vietnam, Woodstock, and Watergate. It is certainly possible that these events have marked this generation in a more Democratic or liberal direction for life. Many Generation Xers came of age during the Reagan-Bush years (1980 to 1992) or the “Republican Revolution” marked by the 1994 midterm elections. Today’s Generation Y has reached maturity in a time period largely marked by the administration of George W. Bush, and certainly for many the nascent Obama administration is a major formative factor in their political orientation.”
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97 comments Add your comment
Truth
May 14th, 2009
9:32 am
You are a joke Jay.
georgian by birth floridian because I'm lucky
May 14th, 2009
9:34 am
Jay I do feel it is slightly getting ahead of yourself.
You claimed Obama WILL be for the next generation.
I would say though that each of the other examples you gave had at the least a successful tenure or were percieved good.
It has been a little over 100 days since Obama has taken office. I doubt that you were a steelers fan or Patriots fan after only 150 or so days of living in the area.
If you had made up your mind that fast one would be within their right to call you a fairweather johnson.
Here is hoping for the best from our president, however a lil early to claim him as the next great political leader, as proof by others have had higher ratings through this point in their presidency and some turned out to be horrible failures, in terms of approval ratings.
Was there anything I said that is uncorrect??
Dave R
May 14th, 2009
9:44 am
Except for being a Red Sox fan, I pretty much disagree with the article as a whole.
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
9:59 am
aka, the ‘herd’ mentality in politics. Who knows, it might hold for the masses.
Billy Bob
May 14th, 2009
10:00 am
Interesting data, Mr. Bookman.
The area of greatest interest to me in the data is the sharp increase in Republican identification at age 22 to 26 and the associated decline in Democratic identification. One can only assume that this “change of political heart” occurs as many youngsters exit the closistered university life and enter the real world of full-time employment and it’s associated government taxation. The draw to the Republicans comes from both the Dems and Independents.
The next area of interest is the inflection point at in Republican and Democratic identification at approximately age 40-42 or so as many of those Independents begin to transition more heavily to Democratic affiliation. I have no stock answer for why this happens but I’d be interested in somebody else’s take on this second movement (an uncertain but powerful movement, not unlike the second movement in Beethoven’s Ninth).
The movement at age 58 seems to be a reawakening of sorts for our generic political animal. He moves back to the Republicans while the Democratic identification stalls.
It’s all great entertainment, but ultimately how do these people vote? Independents must pull the lever, generally, for one of the other Parties.
Still, nice article.
Dave R
May 14th, 2009
10:04 am
After all, it got Hope & Change elected without any qualifications . . .
Joey
May 14th, 2009
10:06 am
Sorry Roger.
Politics swings like a pendulum do.
Y’ers like Democrats and Boomers might too.
X’ers are Conservative and pretty much alone.
Gallup has spoken. We all can go home.
Those aggravating but consistant pendulums. They won’t stay where you tell them too. And damn-it-all they repond to forces.
getalife
May 14th, 2009
10:08 am
After all the outrages and failures of both parties, there should be more Independents.
I Report :-)/ You Whine :-(
May 14th, 2009
10:08 am
Yeah, all the teenagers can think about nowadays is Lewinskies, which they learned from Klintoon.
ew
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
10:08 am
No way in hell will this Baby Boomer ever turn Republican.
Dave R
May 14th, 2009
10:12 am
Color me shocked, Susan. That would require independent thought.
Goldie
May 14th, 2009
10:17 am
President Obama represents the beginning “imprint” for the 21st century… the Repubs still represent most of what’s so distasteful about the 20th century — scapegoating groups of people, ruling by power of fear, and a constant longing for the “glorious” days of the past.
DB, Gwinnettian
May 14th, 2009
10:18 am
Gosh, thanks for the earworm, Joey. Dang you to heck!
bobbies on bi-cycles two by two…
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
10:19 am
Jay,
I have not read the article but is this data actually plotted versus year of birth or age. You stated year of birth yet Billy Bob, for example, is interpreting it as though it were versus age. The graphs are also labeled with the word, ‘age’. This is very mis-leading.
ty webb
May 14th, 2009
10:20 am
Susan,
I’m sure the Republicans are real torn up about it too.
DB, Gwinnettian
May 14th, 2009
10:21 am
Speaking of chicks, I think the theory posited is interesting, but you have to ask the “chicken or egg” question too. That is, does the imprinting happen just because they were hatched, or did the leader come to power because his/her message was acceptable to enough people to allow the imprinting to happen?
To get further into this would require my actually reading the linked piece, which I’ve not the time for this am. Later, all.
‘cept to say Taxpayer @ 9.59, I don’t think that chicks are grouped into herds. Maybe in Texas, but not most places.
Joe Matarotz
May 14th, 2009
10:21 am
Fascinating.
cranky old man
May 14th, 2009
10:30 am
Hmm. I’m not much into sports, but I do remember why the Dolphins are my favorite NFL team. When I first learned about football when I was 6, my favorite TV show was “Flipper.” As far as fitting into these statistics, I was born in 1965, and I could probably be described as Democratic-leaning independent. I’m with the Democrats on most economic issues, and with the Libertarians on most everything else.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
10:31 am
irrelevant one @ 10:12,
Well good morning, stud muffin. I’d color you pale pink after seeing you with your skivvies off last night.
Oh Really....
May 14th, 2009
10:35 am
Dave R blesses the world with this nugget:
“Except for being a Red Sox fan, I pretty much disagree with the article as a whole.” Well Dave R, the world was waiting with bated breath to hear what you thought.
Whiner gives us this brilliant insight: “Yeah, all the teenagers can think about nowadays is Lewinskies, which they learned from Klintoon.”
As if any normal teenager has ever thought of much else. And yeah, Clinton and Lewinsky were the first to come up with this idea. All of today’s teenagers learned it from Clinton. Maybe they can learn S&M from Cheney.
Bosch
May 14th, 2009
10:39 am
Dave R doesn’t think Obama is qualified to be President. Shocking.
Yeah,
RW-(the original)
May 14th, 2009
10:41 am
Of course anyone that believes this nonsense is incapable of independent thought which is probably why Jay B buys it.
Of the four events listed as I was coming of age the civil rights movement is the only one I ever thought of in political terms and it shaped my conservatism because I truly believe that people should be judged by the content of their character rather than physical attributes. The others were a war a concert and a crime, but maybe those are what serves as guiding lights for moonbats.
Got to head to the forest though.
Later!
Tank
May 14th, 2009
10:42 am
Wow! What an intriguing prospect.
This is old news, Jay. We discussed this about a month ago.
Please continue your efforts on Monster, Careerbuilder and AJC HotJobs (well maybe not there).
hedn2058
May 14th, 2009
10:44 am
Gallup’s poll is missing an important part of the equation: Generation Jones, born 1954-1965, between the Boomers and Generation X. Google Generation Jones, and you’ll see it’s gotten a lot of media attention, and many top commentators from many top publications and networks (Washington Post, Time magazine, NBC, Newsweek, ABC, etc.) now specifically use this term.
Unlike pollsters who are up with current generational trends, Gallup is still using old school generational delineations. By lumping part of GenJones with Boomers, and part with GenX, Gallup’s generational data is seriously flawed. Several top pollsters—including Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen— have shown that GenJones’ political behavior and voting patterns are clearly distinct from its surrounding generations.
It is important to distinguish between the post-WWII demographic boom in births vs. the cultural generations born during that era. Generations are a function of the common formative experiences of its members, not the fertility rates of its parents. Many experts now believe it breaks down this way:
DEMOGRAPHIC boom in babies: 1946-1964
Baby Boom GENERATION: 1942-1953
Generation Jones: 1954-1965
Generation X: 1966-1978
Here is a relatively recent op-ed in USA TODAY about GenJones as the new generation of leadership:
http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20090127/column27_st.art.htm
getalife
May 14th, 2009
10:45 am
“Republicans unhappy with Dick Cheney as the party’s top spokesperson — but too afraid to say so on the record.”
Scared of dick and rush.
Weak.
Bosch
May 14th, 2009
10:46 am
getalife,
Um, well, wouldn’t you be afraid of old Dickey if you were in the GOP – he does have a record of shooting people in the face and all.
Bosch
May 14th, 2009
10:47 am
getalife,
And if Rush got hold of ya’ and sat on ya’…….well, that wouldn’t be so hot either.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
10:57 am
ty webb @ 10:20,
Me too. You crying along with them?
Taxpayer
May 14th, 2009
11:00 am
Well, they should retake this survey after this program has had a chance to work its way through our society. Whoopeeeeee.
TRENTON, N.J. — Pfizer Inc. is unveiling a new program Thursday that will let people who have lost their jobs and health insurance keep taking some widely prescribed Pfizer medications _ including Lipitor and Viagra _ for free for up to a year.
The world’s biggest drugmaker will provide more than 70 of its prescription drugs at no cost to unemployed, uninsured Americans, regardless of their prior income, who lost jobs since Jan. 1 and have been on the Pfizer drug for three months or more.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
11:01 am
Bosch @ 10:47,
Double EWWWWWW! I’ll bet you could smell the stench of Rush before he got 2 miles within your range.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
11:04 am
Taxpayer @ 11:00,
Just what we need, a bunch of blind rednecks walking around with a stiff one sticking straight out.
Joey
May 14th, 2009
11:12 am
I am so releived. I am no longer a danger to my Country.
Miss Janet has recalled her “The Right Wing is a Terrorist Incubator” report. I seems that: “An employee sent it out without authorization.” I am sure she ment a former employee.
ty webb
May 14th, 2009
11:19 am
Susan,
No, I’m not crying because of you not ever becoming a republican. I’m crying because of the tragic condition of our public education system which probably had a hand in how you form your opinions.
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
11:26 am
ty webb @ 11:19,
Are you? Really? Ahhh, how sweet!
getalife
May 14th, 2009
11:31 am
Good points Bosch .
If they can’t stand up to dick and rush, they are too weak for national security.
jt
May 14th, 2009
11:31 am
Independent=Intelligence
R & D= Sheeple
BDAtlanta
May 14th, 2009
11:41 am
Oh Really,
S&M from Cheney…Good one!
Ty Webb at 11:19,
You’re obviously a Boortz fan. What is Boortz telling you to think today?
Oh Really....
May 14th, 2009
11:42 am
jt = douchebag
getalife
May 14th, 2009
11:43 am
Roberta McCain: Limbaugh “Does Not Represent The Republican Party That I Belong To”
I bet his Mom does not apologize but John will.
Weak.
Night Train
May 14th, 2009
11:44 am
Bosch, have you taken a ride in a car with your poster boy, Teddy lately?
DB, Gwinnettian
May 14th, 2009
11:49 am
Wow, Night Train @ 11.44–ancient material much?
I hear Tricky Dick might be bugging some offices!
DB, Gwinnettian
May 14th, 2009
11:50 am
hedn2058, interesting link, thanks.
Maybe I just liked it because I was Jonesin’ for a generation myself…
Susan Myers
May 14th, 2009
11:52 am
Uh-oh, someone’s going to have to apologize…
Rep. Shadegg Dismissed Rush Limbaugh As “Just A Television Personality”
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/05/14/shadegg-rush-climate/
jt
May 14th, 2009
12:03 pm
“it’s almost like an imprinting process, in which newly hatched chicks begin to follow the first leader they see”
That is a perfect description of the habits AND intelligence of the R & D party sheeple.
Are you my mommy? Are you my mommy?
jt
May 14th, 2009
12:05 pm
Are you my mommy?
What a good book.
jt
May 14th, 2009
12:13 pm
Oh Really….
Your timing was brilliant. The content was classic. Good job.
I give a 9.
Dennis
May 14th, 2009
12:18 pm
Nixon is dead and he paid the price for his criminal activites promptly after being found out. Ted on the other hand ………….
Midori
May 14th, 2009
12:20 pm
Nancy Pelosi: CIA Lied To Me
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/14/nancy-pelosi-cia-lied-to_n_203507.html
I’m with Nancy: RELEASE THE BRIEFINGS!!!!
Oh Really....
May 14th, 2009
12:24 pm
jt,
“sheeple” how original.
any chance you could use “bed wetter,” “hippie,” “pinko,”bolshevik,” or “libral media”? these hackneyed terms would update your avatar’s trendy lingo.
jt
May 14th, 2009
12:28 pm
Oh Really…. Thanks for the suggestion. I will try. Why did you only give me “hackneyed terms” for the left side of the R & D party.?
You bolshevik!