Young voters pose long-term challenge to GOP future
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Kristin Soltis, a Republican pollster, has an interesting piece at Pollster.com about the challenges confronting the GOP regarding young people. The party’s biggest problem is not that people such as 79-year-old Arlen Specter are leaving; it’s that too few young people are replacing him.
First, she notes what most of us know already: Obama did very well among young voters, and young voters in 2008 tended to self-identify as Democrats rather than Republicans. As Soltis writes, “in 2008, there was a more marked difference between young voters and the overall electorate. While Democrats held a 7-point advantage over Republicans in terms of party identification overall, that advantage jumps to 18 points among voters 18-29.”
But Soltis then looks a little deeper. The real change in party ID among the young, she discovers, occurred not in 2008 but in the 2006 midterm elections. That year, “there was a massive shift toward the Democrats ending in a 12-point Democrat advantage in party identification” among those aged 18-29.
“As it turns out, young voters began abandoning the Republican Party long before Barack Obama was even a serious contender for the presidency,” she writes. “Those pinning the Republican Party’s poor fortunes among young voters on the Obama candidacy miss the source of the problem and certainly underestimate its severity.”
But it is Soltis’ conclusion that is most interesting, because it attacks what has become conventional issue on such matters:
“I’ve been troubled in recent months when discussing the issue of young voters with some fellow Republicans. There seems to be a sort of conventional wisdom that we should expect young voters to trend liberal and Democratic, that the behavior of young voters in 2008 is not serious cause for concern. This stems from a belief in partisanship as a life-cycle factor, that voters start liberal and Democratic and wind up older, conservative, and Republican. But the data paint a very different picture. Take the graph of partisan identification for instance; over the last few decades, young voters have not identified with the Democratic party in substantially higher numbers than voters overall. Even conservatism had its moment among young voters in the 1980’s….
Another bit of conventional wisdom I hear from my fellow Republicans about the youth vote is that they need to vote Democratic twice before they are “locked in for life”, supporting the notion that there is still time to turn the tide among this generation. Unfortunately, given that the shift began in 2006 and not 2008, for many voters the GOP may simply be too late. For the rest, if the Republican Party does not take immediate action to repair its brand, this generation may exhibit similarly low levels of Republican identification for years to come.”
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141 comments Add your comment
Wyld Byll Hyltnyr
April 30th, 2009
12:11 pm
Jay, this is, at best a red herring; at worst the penultimate crotch-grab in the Democrat’s ghoulish Michael Jackson-esque vuctory dance.
Who cares if 18 to 29 year olds identify with the Republican Party. Very few every have; people become Republicans after they gain life experience and become wordly. Hence the old saying:
If you are not a Democrat at age 20, you don’t have a heart and if you are not a Republican at age 40 you don’t have a BRAIN.
Jindahl/Palin in 2012 – Change that put us in the right direction.
I Report/ You Whine
April 30th, 2009
12:15 pm
You got to be kidding bookman, you totally ignore the plain, undeniable fact that the older you get and the wiser you get, the more Republican you get.
junk journalism
Mr. Snarky
April 30th, 2009
12:16 pm
Sounds like the republicans should be preparing for a long cold winter…hope you’ve got plenty of supplies. With Rush and Hannity to lead you, I’m sure you will enjoy it.
Mr. Snarky
April 30th, 2009
12:18 pm
Byll, keep clinging to that phrase. I’m sure it will keep you warm.
Jindal/Palin…to quote your boy: “Bring it on”.
I Report/ You Whine
April 30th, 2009
12:18 pm
Most kids haven’t had their first democrats are liars experience, hehehehe, they’ll learn.
Jay
April 30th, 2009
12:18 pm
First of all, Byll, minus 10 points for putting the phrases “crotch grab” and “Michael Jackson” in the same sentence. Some images we do not need, thank you very much.
Second, as Soltis points out, “the data paint a very different picture.” Until recently, it is simply not true that young people have tended Democrat. In 1996 the Dems had a one-point advantage among voters 18-29. In 2002, the Republicans had a 2-point advantage.
But in 2006, things change dramatically.
In other words, the conventional wisdom by which you comfort yourself is simply wrong. Look at the data, as Soltis did.
ty webb
April 30th, 2009
12:18 pm
American idol polls well in the 18-29 demo as well.
DB
April 30th, 2009
12:18 pm
I’m not sure what I enjoy more–the GOP’s rather dire demographic realities, or how the righties continue to live in denial of them.
AmVet
April 30th, 2009
12:19 pm
The answer for the Old White Guy Party of Dixie?
Simple. Toss out everyone who doesn’t toe the line.
Oh wait! That’s what you’ve been doing for years? And that’s worked out how for you?
Are you listening Meghan McCain? The “Big Tent” GOP is in reality table-cloth sized!
McCarthy the Witch Hunter, Tricky Dick & Spiro, BIG government Ronnie, Eddie the Anti-porn King, Newt the flame-thrower, Barr the Impeacher, Delay the Launderer, Frist the remote Diagnoser, George the Impaler.
All that really bad karma is a beetch, no?
Unevolved and going the way of the dodo…
pat
April 30th, 2009
12:20 pm
You do realize that about 7 years ago this same conversation was being held about democrats? Things are cyclical; the republicans are not going to go away as much as you may hope they do. Sure they are down, but the democrats were down and listless directionless and lost just a few years ago. It really only took two people to change it Bush Jr. and obama. Everybody hated Bush and since he was the face of the Republicans, people turned on the Republicans. Along comes obama, he talks really nice and could sell you a turd sandwich and make you think it’s good. Even though his words are utterly meaningless, people bought hook, line and sinker because, at least he is not Bush.
You little left wing nuts should love Bush not hate him, he is the best thing that has ever happened to the democrats. Put simply, the democrats were not hired, the republicans were just simply fired.
Now when your best argument for your policies is “We won”, don’t expect it to work forever. What power you hold is fragile, one big mistake can cost you, just ask Bush Jr.
I Report/ You Whine
April 30th, 2009
12:21 pm
When you know your voters are young and dense, you lie-
OBAMA: “Number one, we inherited a $1.3 trillion deficit…. That wasn’t me. Number two, there is almost uniform consensus among economists that in the middle of the biggest crisis, financial crisis, since the Great Depression, we had to take extraordinary steps. So you’ve got a lot of Republican economists who agree that we had to do a stimulus package and we had to do something about the banks. Those are one-time charges, and they’re big, and they’ll make our deficits go up over the next two years.” – in Missouri.
THE FACTS:
Congress controls the purse strings, not the president, and it was under Democratic control for Obama’s last two years as Illinois senator. Obama supported the emergency bailout package in President George W. Bush’s final months – a package Democratic leaders wanted to make bigger.-AP
DB
April 30th, 2009
12:23 pm
BTW, does anyone really think Palin’s ego would allow herself to be at the bottom of a Presidential ticket again?
Mrs. Godzilla
April 30th, 2009
12:25 pm
Funny thing about those ole’ cycles……sometimes they end up like this!:
http://bobsutton.typepad.com/my_weblog/images/bike_crash.png
We need the WAHmbulance!
Paul
April 30th, 2009
12:30 pm
Which is why I like bumping data up against conventional wisdom. At times the conventions change.
Reps have already made a mistake in targeting certain incumbents who aren’t “Right” enough (as has recently happened among Dems who weren’t “Left” enough – the desire for ideological purity makes for strange bedfellows). A national identity is fine, but how does one elect a member of one’s party in a local election with a populace that isn’t quite so “Right” but who still can be persuaded? According to Sen Olympia Snowe, the power brokers aren’t interested.
And we have some young people indicating a desire to be Republicans – just “not your father’s Republican” such as Meghan McCain. But the purists reject.
So young people gravitate elsewhere. And the cycles continue.
AmVet
April 30th, 2009
12:34 pm
ty, good point. As is the fact that the 700 Club polls well in the 55 and over crowd.
And pat makes another good point. All non neo-cons do, in a way, love GWB. Too bad it cost 4,275 lives and turning the government into an even bigger give away factory for corporate criminals.
If Sarah is gonna run again, she better read some more newspapers. And get some hellacious binoculars.
And the Louisiana Flash? He MIGHT carry the cajun vote.
And I’m sure I’m not alone on this one, I’m dying to see her on the national stage again. Train Wreck, Part Deux.
If and when the GOP can show it has more than a handful (and that might be generous) of moderates they may just appeal to more than the enraged fringe…
Redneck Convert
April 30th, 2009
12:34 pm
Well, seems to me we need to raise the age for voting to 45 or so. Or maybe bring back the poll tax.
If we don’t we’re going to get a butt-whomping that won’t leave no flesh on our rump.
We already lost the vote of Those People. Now we lost the vote of the Mexicans and the young people. Yup, 45 is the way to go.
I Report/ You Whine
April 30th, 2009
12:36 pm
$3.5T Budget Plan: All Republicans and 20 Democrats Vote Against
They must not have been very young democrats, bwahahahaha
Still, the measure passed the House by a vote of 233 to 193 and the Senate 53 to 43. Only 17 Democrats in the House and three in the Senate voted against it, `~~~~~~~~as did Sen. Arlen Specter~~~~~~~~~ of Pennsylvania, who announced Tuesday that he would leave the Republican Party.
bwahahahahahahaha, he’s all yours.
Taxpayer
April 30th, 2009
12:36 pm
Well, I’m now in my mid-fifties and decidedly non-Republican. Further, my brain is still in pretty good working order and I certainly have not grown less wise or worldly over the years although I must concede, based on the assumption that some comments here are from persons older than myself, that growing less wise and even more ignorant over time is a real possibility and even a source of concern. Then again, some might consider me to be just another crotchedy old man in need of a thriller.
Pokey
April 30th, 2009
12:39 pm
Young readers pose long-term challenge to AJC future…
Reebok
April 30th, 2009
12:41 pm
The GOP is out of ideas and is determined to go over the cliff with the 20% of Americans who still I.D. themselves as Republicans. The answer, according to the opinion-makers (Rush, Hannity, Coulter and the like) is to get MORE right-wing and less inclusive…which is a shame because we need 2 viable political parties…not one that is totally dominating all levels of governance and a second, marginalized group throwing bombs and spewing venom.
Paul
April 30th, 2009
12:42 pm
AmVet
So as I asked the other day, where’s a moderate to go? The thread says young people are trending Democratic, but are they moderate? Or reacting to Republican failures and see no other option?
Altho I gotta admit, some of the shakeups I’d like to see happen are decidedly not moderate.
Billy Bob the anti-THUG
April 30th, 2009
12:45 pm
Factor in the economy, Jay, and you probably get the same normal distribution as ever. Young people grow older, get jobs, pay taxes, have kids and then they vote REPUBLICAN.
But it’s OK if they want to socialize everything because my generation will benefit from the enhanced social services while theirs pays the price down the road.
Thanks, DEMOTARDS!
Pokey
April 30th, 2009
12:46 pm
It is interesting how concerned(obsessed?) JB is about the future of the GOP. There must be a connection to his days as a “Gerald Ford Republican”!
ty webb
April 30th, 2009
12:48 pm
Paul,
While I see your point, I hardly think the Meghan McCain’s of the world are the cure for what ails the GOP.
N.J,
April 30th, 2009
12:49 pm
Young people have to live more with the consequences of Republican tax cuts to the rich and cuts to programs to lower income individuals. So college has become immensely unafordable since the Republican cuts to subsidize universities and tuitions began in the 1980’s
Before 1980, it was totally possible for a student to take out a Pell Grant, get a student assistant job in the library, or the registrars office and go to college. Thats how I went to college and it didnt cost my parents a dime, because I didnt want to burden my parents with my education. I worked TWO student assistant jobs 30 hours a week, got a Pell grant. It took me years longer than my friends who graduated high school the same year as me, but I did it. Most people of my generation who went to school did so as well. Most of them are living off of the educations they got when younger, much of which was subsidized by taxpayers of their parents generation, but as soon as they started to make a little money, they didnt want to do for others what was done for them.
Basically young people are better informed these days and they can see who is screwing them and who is not. They are making the choices that are in their own best interests .
Shawny
April 30th, 2009
12:51 pm
Yep, young voters does pose a challenge for the GOP. Younger does not equal wiser, in general. Hopefully, they will wisen with age.
AmVet
April 30th, 2009
12:54 pm
Paul, that is the $64 question.
You know how I feel about the two party system – the the evil of two lessers.
Historically, people who abhor what the Republican Party has morphed into the past thirty five years have had no choice but to be a Democrat. As I was for a long time.
But about twelve to fifteen years ago, I realized that the Democrats are really just Republican-lites, in the ways that mattered to me. And I left them behind. Though in many ways they really are the only viable alternative for moderates, greens, etc…
Both political parties are invested in their own power structure first, their monied masters second and the rest of us last.
And the American Politburo aka the Commission on Presidential Debates in cahoots with the mainstream media allow NO other voices. None. Not then. Not now. Never.
Yet, there are for me, better options.
Innovators, radicals, vanguards and anarchists (to the extent it means the dissolution of the Democratic/Republican duoploy).
Notwithstanding the fact that GWB has driven away untold zillions of lifelong Republicans to the “independent” camp, sadly most Americans are owned by one of the two parties.
And though they may not realize it, the boys on K Street sure do…
getalife
April 30th, 2009
12:57 pm
Younger Americans are more open minded than the old cons.
They were smart enough to see the gop destroyed our country and finally voted.
The gop will not change. They will try but the cons will say no.
Cons are our taliban.
Mrs. Godzilla
April 30th, 2009
12:59 pm
I noticed above somebody fiddled with that old quote wrongly attributed to Winston Churchill…..it pops up here pretty regularly.
Here’s some info on that old chestnut:
Misattributed
If you’re not a liberal when you’re 25, you have no heart. If you’re not a conservative by the time you’re 35, you have no brain.
According to research by Mark T. Shirey, citing Nice Guys Finish Seventh: False Phrases, Spurious Sayings, and Familiar Misquotations by Ralph Keyes, 1992, this quote was first uttered by mid-nineteenth century historian and statesman François Guizot when he observed, Not to be a republican at 20 is proof of want of heart; to be one at 30 is proof of want of head. This quote has been attributed variously to George Bernard Shaw, Benjamin Disraeli, Otto von Bismarck, and others.
Furthermore, the Churchill Centre, on its Falsely Attributed Quotations page, states “there is no record of anyone hearing Churchill say this.” Paul Addison of Edinburgh University is quoted as stating: “Surely Churchill can’t have used the words attributed to him. He’d been a Conservative at 15 and a Liberal at 35! And would he have talked so disrespectfully of Clemmie, who is generally thought to have been a lifelong Liberal?”
Variants: Any man who is under 30, and is not a liberal, has no heart; and any man who is over 30, and is not a conservative, has no brains.
Show me a young conservative and I’ll show you someone with no heart. Show me an old liberal and I’ll show you someone with no brains.
If you are not a socialist by the time you are 25, you have no heart. If you are still a socialist by the time you are 35, you have no head
Stuff and nonsense…..
Pokey
April 30th, 2009
1:01 pm
NJ…your’s is the most absurd, cliched post in this thread. Congrats!
Susan Myers
April 30th, 2009
1:06 pm
They just don’t get it…go back and watch the tape of the Republican National Convention from last year. There is your answer as to what’s wrong with the Republican party!
Then go back and watch the tapes of the McCain/Palin rallies where people were shouting all kinds of racist, hate filled comments… there is your answer!
Then go back and watch the tapes of the Fixed Noise sponsored tea parties where again there was shouting and posters filled with racist, hate filled sentiments…there is your answer!
It’s not just those holding office but so many people throughout the country that still feel hate towards any person who’s not white and a Bible carrying Christian. There are still so many people out there who are filled with hatred and are teaching their children and grandchildren to hate.
Rick
April 30th, 2009
1:07 pm
“If you are not a Democrat at age 20, you don’t have a heart and if you are not a Republican at age 40 you don’t have a BRAIN.
Jindahl/Palin in 2012 – Change that put us in the right direction”
This is a quote from the first post. I LAUGHED OUT LOUD at this. He congratulates himself for having a brain and then supports Jundahl/Palin in 2012????????????????????????
That’s the silliest comment I have ever heard and I am over forty, stay aprised of current events and VERY MUCH A DEMOCRAT.
Andy the Teabagger
April 30th, 2009
1:07 pm
Our venerable Tuesday Vandy Girl is a prime illustration of the challenges that “conservatism” faces amongst the younger voters, throw in a little Andy, some Corporal and a sprinkling of Dusty in there and it’s no wonder that the voters are running away from the Republican party.
Susan Myers
April 30th, 2009
1:11 pm
N.J, @ 12:49,
What an inspiration you are!
jasper
April 30th, 2009
1:12 pm
Susan,
Get back on your meds. Pills are good!
RetLTC
April 30th, 2009
1:16 pm
If the Republican party doesn’t shed it’s image as the party of angry, scared, xenophobic white folks, you can stick a fork in it cause its done.
ty webb
April 30th, 2009
1:17 pm
More deep thoughts from the political scientist that is Susan Myers.
Wyld Byll Hyltnyr
April 30th, 2009
1:18 pm
There remains, always and eternal, the hope and prayer that Vice President Cheney will throw aside the riches and rest so nicely earned while a most exceptional private executive to answer our nation’s call to muster as our new President in 2012 and send the current Ob-amateur back to plot diabolical with unrepentant terrorists in the midwestern winter.
RetLTC
April 30th, 2009
1:18 pm
What is the status of Hannity’s boast that he would be waterboarded for charity? He punked, didn’t he?
RetLTC
April 30th, 2009
1:21 pm
How can all these so called “conservatives” on this blog be braying like a herd of jackasses about brains while doing the same old dumb things over and over and over.
RetLTC
April 30th, 2009
1:22 pm
Inclusiveness is what can save the GOP. Too bad they don’t want that.
Susan Myers
April 30th, 2009
1:22 pm
ty webb,
Why, thank you, kind sir, or madam!
Wyld Byll Hyltnyr
April 30th, 2009
1:22 pm
RetLTC 1:18 pm
“…the status of Hannity’s boast that he would be waterboarded for charity?”, you ask. Simple, it has shown that the Democrats, through their joy of the though of seeing Hannity so interogated, really were not committed to waterboarding as a form of torture beyond the extent that false such allegations met their need to hedctor a true American hero, President Bush.
Let’s be real, sleep deprivation, bugs in a box, loud music, waterboarding, those were hazing ruituals at my fraternity not torture.
Susan Myers
April 30th, 2009
1:23 pm
jasper,
Got any on ya?
Mrs. Godzilla
April 30th, 2009
1:26 pm
Some things deservedly are carved in stone…..others should be
stenciled on pudding…..
“”"There remains, always and eternal, the hope and prayer that Vice President Cheney will throw aside the riches and rest so nicely earned while a most exceptional private executive to answer our nation’s call to muster as our new President in 2012 and send the current Ob-amateur back to plot diabolical with unrepentant terrorists in the midwestern winter.”"
That’s for the pudding don’t ya’ think!
Paul
April 30th, 2009
1:26 pm
ty webb
I agree. Just used her as an example that there are young people who would like to gravitate to the Republican Party but they get rejected for not passing the ideology test. So they go elsewhere.
AmVet
Where is the link… just read a comment today by a Republican Congressman this morning who said the banks still own Congress – not the other way around.
Litmus tests. Even our President advocates them. Single issues. Religion. Lack of it. Imposing values. Imposing no values.
One would think an alternative would develop. But you described the self-perpetuating lockdown pretty well.
Oh well.
Susan Myers 1:06
Now brace yourself for the onslaught of examples of the very same things perpetuated by the Left.
Neither side is guiltess (with a little rearranging I could also write ‘either side is gutless”). But people want to act like their side is pure and the other is evil.
No wonder we have such a mess.
Paul
April 30th, 2009
1:30 pm
Retired LtC 1:18
Jay posted a clip. A fellow H was interviewing asked if he’d been waterboarded. H said no. The guy asked if he would be. H finally said yes and said the guy could do it. The guy, being a person of principle who felt it was wrong no matter what, said ‘no.’
There is remained, until a “me, too” spotlight seeker interjected himself.
And the story there is, Olbermann has gone from a man of principle, abhorrent of waterboarding and all those who authorized it, did it, condoned it or enabled it, to
An advocate of waterboarding.
Such is American political theater.
Wyld Byll Hyltnyr
April 30th, 2009
1:30 pm
“Stenciled on pudding”, hardly. Rather it constitutes the very litmus test, hardcoded irrevocably as the inate desire for the return of our greatest heroes, of one who is a true American and a patriot.
Mrs. Godzilla
April 30th, 2009
1:31 pm
Frat Boys?
Two frat boys were stranded at sea in a life boat. On the 4th day, a mermaid came up out of the water and offered them one wish to save their lives.
The frat boys thought about it and one shouted out,”I wish the ocean was a sea of beer.” And it happened.
A litle while later the other one shouted,”Great, now we have to pee in the boat!”
How many Frat boys does it take to change a lightbulb?
11 – One to hold the lightbulb, and 10 to drink until the room spins.
What do you call a fratboy in a suit? The defendant.
md
April 30th, 2009
1:32 pm
Most young people start with nothing and love the idea of sticking it to the rich. Thats the new american way. I want it and he has it, so give it to me. Oh, I can vote in any democratic president and he’ll give it to me? Fantastic, where do I sign up to vote?
That was me 30+ years ago, so don’t tell me I don’t have a clue what I’m talking about. Funny how things change when your the hunted vs the hunter. Or should that be moochee vs moocher?