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Jamie Dupree Washington Insider

The GOP Race

7:07 am February 21, 2012, by Jamie Dupree

The Republican race for the White House continues to be filled with intrigue, one week before two key races in Arizona and Michigan and just two weeks until Super Tuesday, as Rick Santorum tries to keep his momentum in the fight to stop Mitt Romney's quest for the GOP nomination.

New polls in Arizona and Michigan show a tight race in both of those states, with Romney ahead in the Grand Canyon State while Santorum leads in Michigan.  Those two states vote in a week on February 28.

There was also a new poll out last night from Washington State - which votes the weekend before Super Tuesday - which shows Santorum with a strong edge over Romney, as the polling group PPP found 63% of general election voters in Washington view Romney unfavorably.

Among GOP voters, Santorum's favorable/unfavorable numbers were an amazing 69/18 in the PPP poll, while Romney was at 47/42 - much like polling in Minnesota and Missouri, where Santorum won.

"Santorum did better than Romney against Obama on both of our weekend polls," PPP reported, raising distinct questions about the "electability edge" that Romney has touted for weeks.

Santorum leads in polls in a series of Super Tuesday states - Ohio, Tennessee and Oklahoma, while Newt Gingrich leads in Georgia, and Mitt Romney is ahead in his home state of Massachusetts.

Romney should be the favorite there and in next door Vermont, plus Virginia (where Santorum and Gingrich are not on the ballot), while the three caucus states on Super Tuesday - Alaska, Idaho and North Dakota - would seemingly offer a better chance at victory to Santorum or Ron Paul.

Paul also drew very large crowds in Washington State in recent days, but his support again has not translated into big numbers in recent polls, either at the state or national level.

Moving past Super Tuesday, there are two more contests a week later in Alabama and Mississippi that certainly don't seem like Romney territory.

It makes tomorrow night's debate in Arizona all the more important.

Romney is in Michigan today, following a stop in Cincinnati on Monday that reportedly was lacking in enthusiasm.

Santorum is already in Arizona and has two events there on Tuesday; Gingrich stumps for votes in Oklahoma again, as he speaks to the Oklahoma State Legislature.  

If you are one of those hoping for a "brokered" convention or just the simple situation where no one gets a majority of delegates, then you might need Gingrich to go one-two with Santorum in states like Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi.

That's because those two would then drain away delegates from Romney.

But let's wait on that kind of delegate dissection until after Super Tuesday.

What's clear is that Romney has a tough road ahead of him over the next week in Arizona and Michigan.

The story line is all about whether he can grab back some momentum from Santorum in those two states.

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6 comments Add your comment

The Snark

February 20th, 2012
11:31 pm

The lead in the GOP race goes to whichever person can deliver the most outrageous insults about President Obama. Then, when one news cycle’s worth of coverage reveals that person to be utterly unqualified to execute the duties of the office, the base grabs on to another person who is willing to take the microphone and courageously say “socialist!” or “he’s not a Christian” or “he wants to rule the world!”

I can’t believe this is the party of Lincoln and Eisenhower (both of whom would have been tossed out long ago with Huntsman if they were running today.)

Joseph C Johnson

February 21st, 2012
2:45 am

Ron Paul is the only real candidate. These others are just hawkish Obama’s. Paul plans to cut qne trillion year one of actual spending cuts, not drawing back proposed spending from pretend conservatives.

Mike

February 21st, 2012
5:41 am

Rick Sanitorium – One more reason the GOP will continue its slide into insignificance. I didn’t leave the party, it has left me.

Steve Thompson

February 21st, 2012
7:21 am

Here is a look at the billionaire donors contributing to Romney’s Restore Our Future Super PAC:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2012/02/billionaire-republicans-who-will.html

For the month of January 2012, Restore Our Future raised an average of $213,000 per day.

Chip

February 21st, 2012
9:24 am

The person who will win the nomination, and the presidency, will be the onw who stands up and tells it like it is (and to H**l with political correctness)… America has to correct its course by defeating the insanity of liberalism… otherwise there will soon no longer be a recognizable America. Normal red-blooded, meat-eating Americans are crying out for another Ronald Reagan to save this country from Loony Lefties. Whichever conservative decides to actually be the next Reagan will crush Little Lord Obozo in a landslide.

...wait....what?

February 21st, 2012
10:25 am

44 percent of Social Security recipients, 43 percent of those receiving unemployment benefits, and 40 percent of those on Medicare say that they “have not used a government program”.