Super Tuesday Muddle

In baseball, if you get a hit three out of every ten at bats, you are considered to be a fairly good hitter. But will .300 work for Mitt Romney on Super Tuesday in early March?

When you look at the Super Tuesday map, there are three states that stand out immediately for Romney: his home state of Massachusetts, next door Vermont, and Virginia, where Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich failed to get on the ballot.

Romney should go three for three there and win most of the 107 delegates up for grabs in those Super Tuesday contests.

But then things get muddy.

As of now, Rick Santorum leads in polls from Ohio, Tennessee and Oklahoma; Newt Gingrich narrowly leads in Georgia.

Romney victories in those four states seem unlikely at this point, but there are still two weeks left to change the dynamic in Ohio, which is where Romney might have the best chance of those four states.

Remember, Santorum doesn't have full delegate slates in three of Ohio's Congressional districts, so Romney could lose the state primary vote, but still squeeze out more of Ohio's 66 delegates.

Tennessee, Oklahoma and Georgia have 177 delegates in all - in those three states, the top two vote getters divide the delegates by Congressional district - unless one candidate wins a majority of the vote, then it would be winner-take-all in that district.

If Santorum and Gingrich can run first and second in most of Tennessee, Oklahoma and Georgia, then they could certainly deal a setback to Romney by elbowing him out for the lion's share of delegates in those three states.

After that on Super Tuesday, you go out West to Alaska, Idaho and North Dakota. Those just don't seem like Romney states at first glance - maybe more Santorum or Paul. They account for 87 delegates.

If that's the case, then Romney would win three states on Super Tuesday, and go three for ten - all in New England and the Mid-Atlantic.

Santorum could win more than three states, while Paul and Gingrich have the chance to notch victories as well.

If all four candidates win on March 6, that would almost be the worst case scenario for Romney, where all of his challengers get a win and some delegates - and some momentum in their own campaign mind.

In other words, a Super Tuesday Muddle.

Yes, we won't know the outcome for two weeks; but it doesn't mean we can't try to game out who wins what states and how many delegates.

And right now, it doesn't seem like there will be one big "winner" on Super Tuesday, which means this race may go on longer than many had ever imagined.

And when we get past Super Tuesday, the race goes to Kansas, Alabama and Mississippi. Do those really seem like Romney states?

We'll leave that for later.