Tonight’s game vs Lightning isn’t a ‘must win’ for Thrashers, however…
Last night I sat down at my desk and performed a little advanced math exercise. Armed with graph paper, a slide rule, calculator and a No. 2 pencil, I figure something out that just might interest you. Now, I’ll spare you the lengthy explanations nor shall I bore you by posting charts and graphs here, instead going straight to the conclusion.
If the Atlanta Thrashers do indeed lose to the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight…whether it be in regulation or overtime…they will still have a mathematical chance to make the playoffs this spring.
Again, there’s really just not enough time and space here to explain the “whats” and “whys” involved with this finding. So, just take my word on this.
With that in mind, placing the “must win game” label on tonight’s matchup with the division rival would not be fitting, in my opinion. However, I must admit that to me there is an extra importance to this evening’s battle with the Bolts. I say that for a couple of reasons.
Evander Kane makes his way around Tampa Bay's Victor Hedman during the 2009-10 season opening game. Kane notched his first NHL point that night by assisting on a Rich Peverley goal and the Thrashers won 6-3. It was also the last time Atlanta beat the Bolts (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)
First off, it’s a matchup with the team currently atop the Southeast Division…six points ahead of and with one game in hand on the Thrashers. In between the two is the Washington Capitals, one point behind Tampa Bay. So if Atlanta is going to make any move at the division title, tonight would be a very good time to begin that push. This is especially true given that in the next four games leading up to the All Star Game, the Thrashers play those two teams three times.
Lightning will strike again for Atlanta this coming Sunday afternoon.
Now I’ll admit right here that while I do think the Thrashers will indeed make it to the postseason this spring, I don’t really hold much hope that they’ll do so as division champs.
But stranger things have happened in sports, ya know.
Tough as it might be even with a win against the Lightning tonight, it’d almost be an impossibility if they find themselves even further behind a week from now. Not mathematically, mind you…but realistically speaking.
Another reason I am placing a little more emphasis on this game versus your average, run of the mill January tilt with a division foe is because of the impact it may have not only in the standings…but between the ears as well. The Thrashers have lost nine straight against this Tampa Bay team dating back to the beginning of last season. The last time the Lightning failed to take two points away from a game with Atlanta was opening night 2009 when they fell 6-3 in Philips Arena.
They are rapidly becoming to the Thrashers what Philadelphia and Boston were for several years recently. After a while it’s only natural for coaches and players to start wondering just what in the heck it’ll take to finally beat that #$%@ team. And eventually, that sort of run starts to work against a team mentally. And if one team comes out of the locker room with any such self-doubt going up against any NHL squad, that other team has already taken the first strides towards the win before the puck is even dropped.
So with all that in mind, while it’s certainly not something I would classify in the “must win” column, a win tonight would surely go a long way to help the Thrashers situation both in the standings and psychologically. A
And that would be a very good thing indeed…any way you add it up.
New Rawhide’s Rowdies Ticket Deal – Feb. 13 vs. Hurricanes
On Sunday February 13, we’ll welcome in division rival Carolina for an afternoon matinee. The Thrashers organization has been kind enough to extend another Rawhide’s Rowdies offer for you, the readers of this blog. For this game, we’ll gather in sections 203 and 204 and the ticket price will be only $26.00.
But wait…there’s more.
For those of you who will be taking advantage of this deal, you’ll also receive a free Thrashers replica jersey like the one pictured to the left as well. It has Zach Bogosian’s name and No. 4 on the back.
Simply call Karin Beckman at 404-878-3781 or e-mail her at Karin.Beckman@atlantaspirit.com to procure your tickets and jersey today. Act quickly as there’s only a limited supply available.
Also remember that you can still get good deals on this month’s games by simply clicking —>HERE<– and using promo code RAWHIDE.
Get your tickets, get your free replica jersey and get your butts down to Blueland!
By: Bill Tiller – AJC.com Thrashers Fan Blog
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206 comments Add your comment
Tom
January 20th, 2011
9:55 pm
What will it take for the Thrashers to start getting the calls. There were 3 penalties in the late 3rd period and the overtime that were blatant and ignored by the referees.
Miss one, sure, but 3. You got to be kidding me. Little was manhandled in the first 15 seconds of the overtime to the degree that everyone on the rink stopped skating waiting for the call.
Then, like what happened in Florida, they finally call a penalty in the last 10 seconds on the other team. Like that is going to make a difference.
Screw you refs. You cost us a point tonight.
I wish the league officials actually gave a damn about the on ice referees.
B. Thenet
January 20th, 2011
10:12 pm
We will not make the playoffs with our current roster. We need 1-2 more NHL caliber forwards, Stapleton, Machacek, and Dawes are not good enough.
THE KISS
January 20th, 2011
10:20 pm
HAHA Greetings, Atlanta, I am The Kiss and I have lived here my whole damnable life in this veritable trophy vacuum of a town. I am the smooch that sends your teams to defeat! Serving Atlanta metro customers since 1966! Nothing escapes me, no individual, no team. The Kiss has descended down onto the Thrasher nation from 30,000 feet, FRESH from visit to Athens to oversee the DEFEAT of the Bulldogs at the hands of a last second wish by the Volunteers. I blew a kiss for that one in myself. And did you enjoy your FALCONS??? Hahahaha! I AM THE KISS who lays waste to promising Atlanta and Athens teams to whom you pour your heart and guts of pseudo-allegience, year after year after stinking YEAR. I AM THE KISS, and I just planted a big kiss on…
YOUR ATLANTA THRASHERS!!! See ya soon “nice guys”!
HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHA
Tom
January 20th, 2011
10:29 pm
Hey Kiss, my ass.
World Be Free
January 20th, 2011
10:32 pm
Can’t hold a lead = losses on most nights.
There is no excuse for not being able to hold a lead in NHL. Three times tonight!
Matt
January 20th, 2011
10:34 pm
For GOD’S SAKE what is it going to take to beat Tampon Bay?? This is just ridiculous. Give up tying goal in first minute of 3rd, Lord I am depressed.
e smith
January 20th, 2011
10:50 pm
If there were 12000+ in that arena tonight I will kiss Ramer’s skinny butt!
THE KISS
January 20th, 2011
11:02 pm
Sorry Tom I am not that kind of kiss. I am the kiss of death.
CatThrashFever
January 20th, 2011
11:10 pm
If we lose the rest of our games in OT, getting 1 point for the remaining games…Do we have a chance to get in the playoffs?…33 + 54 = 99 points! YAY!
CatThrashFever
January 20th, 2011
11:11 pm
lol I mean 87 points! I was thinking we had 35 games left!!! LOL
Brendan
January 20th, 2011
11:23 pm
We had this game won. We let it slip away. Instead of the 4-point swing, it’s a 3-1 split, for Tampa Bay. I still don’t feel “doomed.” With all the injuries, we had a real chance at winning. Even in the shootout, Bryan Little got us up, 1-0. Pavelec couldn’t hold it. Still, Pavelec wasn’t horrible in the shootout.
At least I was sure Ramsay wasn’t going to tap Mannino on the shoulder … and tell him to go get his 2nd NHL win, and 1st as a Thrasher. I am encouraged by our team’s performance. This wasn’t some 7-2 pasting.
Smoothie
January 20th, 2011
11:33 pm
Brendan – that’s a terrible slap to Pavelec who kept this team in the game during the 3rd period despite a horribly ragged effort by the players in front of him. Yes, they choked early in the 3rd, but at least they go it to OT. Thought Buffy had it won when he drove the center lane hard and got poke-checked at the last split second. Refs were horrid especially in overtime…basically chickensh!t to not call one of those earlier no-calls, especially the one on Little. As for the S/O, Pavelec is culpable on the first one he gave up as he got too deep in the crease too quick for a shooter coming in at a poor angle. Perhaps he thought he was going to go short-side, but I’m not sure why he even didn’t get to his butterfly on that one. He made a heroic save on Malone to keep it going, but none of our shooters showed any imagination at all. Pathetic S/O effort by our boys.
ZAvalanche
January 20th, 2011
11:43 pm
I really want to be vulgar towards Kiss, but I am more educated than that. But Kiss, you can kiss IT!
Wayne stuck in AL
January 20th, 2011
11:56 pm
Did anyone see the boxscore for the Philly game tonight? TEN fighting majors and 4 game misconducts…just like the old days (sigh)…
Brendan
January 21st, 2011
12:03 am
Smoothie, I thought Pavelec had a pretty good game. That first goal against, I’m still trying to figure out. Disappointing loss, however. It’s times like these … when even the most ardent shootout supporter has to feel like … this was a terrible way to lose a point and hand it to our opponent. It’s always GREAT, SUPER, FABULOUS when the shootout works the other way, right? Way to stick it to TB, if we’d won. I know the shootout isn’t going away. Maybe ever. But I still wish that there could be a 10-minute quick-n-dirty intermission to resurface the ice, then play 10-minutes of 4-on-4 hockey. It’s a team game. I’ve always felt that way. I also think games should be either won or lost, but it seems like, all too often, these 5-minute overtimes result in shootouts. I can plainly see that playoff-style overtime won’t work for the regular season. But I just think these shootouts should become more of a last resort than they already are, for deciding the outcome of a game. Adding 5-more minutes to the 4-on-4 overtime … for a total of ten minutes of overtime … just might reduce the need for these shootouts by a noteworthy percentage.
Cornbread
January 21st, 2011
12:31 am
Just got in from a long day in Atlanta. That was a good game by two very good teams. It was one of those games where the loser played better than the winner. The Thrashers are playing some very good hockey right now but are not getting the results. Keep playing the way they did tonight and they will win a lot more than they lose.
Red Light
January 21st, 2011
12:52 am
6,500 max in the stands IMO
ZAvalanche
January 21st, 2011
4:10 am
Brendan – I think the shootout is a great feature of the game. I hate ties. But I agree with you on the longer overtime prior to the shootout.
THE KISS
January 21st, 2011
5:45 am
Curses and kisses (of death, Tom), never rest…
I’ll be at Philips Friday night at 7:30 (the Hawks are always hard to kiss during the regular season but there’s always the early round playoff kiss), followed by another trip to Athens Saturday afternoon, but I’ll be back that evening for the Rangers game. THE KISS OF DEATH! Ladies and germs, 45 years and counting!
SMOOCHIES!! Enjoy paying for those season ticket!
What Gives?
January 21st, 2011
7:33 am
Boulton on the ice with 1:32 left of a 2-2 game.
Dawes the 4th shootout guy.
What gives?
Is this a peewee team with all guys getting equal time and a gold star sticker after each game?
moriler
January 21st, 2011
7:45 am
It’s rare that I’ll use the “bad bounces” excuse, but that was a horrendous pile of crap last night in Tampa’s favor. One goal scored off Stamkos’ butt, another that pinballed around in front and happened to bounce back to him, and refs who opted out of calling anything on the Lightning, no matter how flagrant it was.
I think of that game as a free point, honestly — with that much weight against us fate tried to give us a zero, and we ended up with one and nearly two. Good effort by the guys mostly, write it off and do the same thing against the Ranjerks and you’ll get the two you deserve.
On the plus side, referring to my prior analysis on page 1: this is also a free point because it’s against a team that has way more in the talent arena than we do, so we can’t reasonably expect to win this game. If we put this same effort out in the 25 games against teams that are our level or below, we will definitely win at least 20 of them, and that’s the 40 points we need to make 94 and lock up a playoff spot for sure.
Larry E
January 21st, 2011
7:46 am
Really hoped to see a good effort from Thrashers last night against Tampa. What I saw was terrible puck handling, terrible defense and very little hitting. Tampa looked like a playoff team and Thrashers looked like an also ran. Nobody hit Stamos, just let him stand anywere he wanted too and score. I loved to watch the Thrashers but folks they are toast. We just don’t have the attitude and top players to be a top team, fact is fact.
What Gives?
January 21st, 2011
7:52 am
BTW, who’s the Thrashers dude that got out of the penalty box in the third and simply crossed the ice to get a replacement while the Lightning were starting a rush literally 15 feet from him?
Iron League 13
January 21st, 2011
7:59 am
ZAv, I’m with you, cept I’m gonna say a bit more.
Dear Kiss,
That’s cute. I find it endearing that you take the time to troll while dorking your way around the new WOW expansion. How do you do that? Your an amazing anomaly. Yeah, I’m being facetious.
In summation your a dweeb, a major league nimrod Your fingers are a health hazard and your keyboard hates you. Tell you what, while living vicariously through a completely unoriginal generic rip off of all things Tolkein and trolling you should probably mutli-task in other ways that’d be more proactive. Here’s how, stop furiously emoting, spellcasting, enchanting or whatever dorky crap you do in WOW or whatever and clean the Funyun / Cheetos/ Doritos residue encrusted fingers (stop licking and sucking them, that’s not cleaning) then disenfect your keyboard.
See, that’s time better spent and you didn’t pee in our collective Count Chocula doing it. Better for you, better for us.
Hasta la bye bye, TROLLING SCHMUCK.
Iron League 13
January 21st, 2011
8:00 am
Apparently that’s Tolkien. Woopsie daisy.
World Be Free
January 21st, 2011
8:01 am
This is hockey-you gotta hit people and knock them off the puck, not just skate around in circles and collect a check every week. I found my old equipment in the attic, gettign ready for the call. I know I can out in a better effort than some of these clowns. Maybe Dudley and Ramsay need to suit up!
BTW-Sabres are playing well, 6 points behind us now. They played a great game in Boston last night, tied 2-2 after 2 periods, came out and scored 2 in the 3rd to win. They have injuries, but guys like Cody McCormick are stepping up. Miller was a game changer too.
Every team has injuries right now and probably a couple guys not reporting injuries.
Always Hoping
January 21st, 2011
8:02 am
Chilean miners, Monks in a Monastery, and astronauts on the space station…..they all knew the Bolts would come out flying in the third period. Unfortunately the Boys in Blue were the only ones not knowing this. Seems a common occurrence this year is letting the opponent take control in the third period.
Iron League 13
January 21st, 2011
8:06 am
Sorry if I offended any posters that dig playing WOW. Of course you’re the exception if that’s the case. The Kiss is a pest, what do you do to cockroaches? Squish.
Iron League 13
January 21st, 2011
8:09 am
disinfect rather, err typos galore
Red Light
January 21st, 2011
8:16 am
Perhaps I watched a different game than some of you. The Lightning slept walk through two periods and were fortunate when Buff handed the puck over to Stamkos and then a hard rebound off the back wall landed on his stick to make it 2-2. I agree Tampa is a much better, more talented team right now. One thing that has become a very disturbing trend is the inability to control the puck. It seems we have resorted to our old dump-and-chase methods. With the fastest player sidelined and another willing participant to be first in on the forecheck also out of the lineup, it simply isn’t working right now. Ramsay’s system is predicated on suffocating the opponent in their own end, creating turnovers and puck possession as a result. I just haven’t seen much of that lately, but the only reason they lost the game last night was that Tampa Bay’s dominance is in now collectively in their heads, and there is no St. Louis, Stamkos, Lecavalier, Thompson, etc. dressed in Thrasher-egg blue.
Iron League 13
January 21st, 2011
8:16 am
Oh yeah, very nice effort last night. It definitely boosts my confidence. Shootout wins/losses they’re really neither in my book and a points good.
ZAv, I agree shootouts are good for the game. Let’s face it, a loss from a shootout is the same as it was before a shootout, which I like…you still get a point. It’s just good for the game, lots of people (long-term hockey nuts and newbies alike) need a definitive resolution and a shootout of course does this. I would also agree that 10 minutes would be a better amount of OT, but how taxing would that be, I do think that extra five minutes would have a negative effect. I’d imagine that a shadowing a hockey player for a week or two would make most of us pooped and I’m just talking about shadowing them not really participating.
World Be Free
January 21st, 2011
8:25 am
Red Light-totally agree on puck control. I think the bruins SO win game earlier this month was a classic example. And it all comes back to the lack of aggression other than Thorburn.
Also, with Sabres back in the mix you can forget about getting Montador this season. He played a real good game last night.
DWTOO
January 21st, 2011
8:29 am
Thought we lost the game in the first when Roloson was flopping around and way out of position. We should have put more than one behind him. And then when he lost his stick we couldn’t hold the zone.
Also noticed too much dump and chase.
Fan from Carolina
January 21st, 2011
8:56 am
Wow, that was a long ride home but it was worth it to experience the excellent feeling of attending a live game. Philips Arena is first class! Great vibes from the entry right up to leaving. If the stands were full it would have been incredible. We were so disappointed in the low turnout. We couldn’t fathom not coming to such a key game involving two playoff bound clubs. The place was just empty, not even half full to my best guess. I saw some fans wearing Atlanta Flames jerseys from the past and it makes you wonder if the Thrashers are headed in the same direction. Just scary non-support. As far as the game I thought the Thrashers were the better team for the first two periods and really held an impressive Lightning line-up in check. The third period was a different story. The OT was basically nothing and one of the more boring 4 on 4 OT sessions I have ever seen other than the Buff opportunity. The shootout looked promising with the Little goal and Hedman hitting the post but then it all turned around. Again, a wonderful experience other then the sparse crowd and end result. Again, thanks to everyone here for the assistance in the past.
World Be Free
January 21st, 2011
9:01 am
“fAN” Good you were they for the game
I was there
January 21st, 2011
9:02 am
Fan from Carolina:
Are you the guy with the glasses and brown hair near the lady with the red jacket?
The most exciting part of the game for me was the play stoppage near the end of the game when ladies in the crowd appeared more than willing to give a PG13 show on the big screen. Grrrrr!
Joe Friday
January 21st, 2011
9:12 am
Red Light, your hard on for Buf is becoming a farce. The basic fact is if not for Buf’s heroics in the first half of this year literally stealing us wins, we’d be a bottom third club right now and falling fast. And no, it’s not some diminutive Swede who “allowed it all to happen”. Or did Enstrom standing around doing nothing in front of our net on both goals allow Buf to “hand it over” snort, to Stamkos? At least he’s competing for the puck and playing d in our zone as opposed to his soft partner standing there doing nothing (watch the replays).
Speaking of Buf, it’s quite apparent that all teams have scouted and now understand if you shut down Buf, you shut down the Thrashers. He’s getting double teamed everywhere and chased all over the PP. If the diminutive Swede were all that, Red Light, he’d be potting goals left and right in Ramsay’s system with all the space opposing clubs are giving him while draping all over his d pairing mate. Buf has been shut down lately and our record shows it. I’d like to see him paired with another threat (brought in via trade) and it looked like coach was mixing up the d pairings in the 3rd to get Buf some looks, it almost worked.
The NHL showed it’s Mickey Mouse league status once again last night with more crap officiating. To miss that call in OT on Little is atrocious. As Dan Kamal tweeted last night, they might as well roll the clock back to 2004 if you’re not going to call that. 2 minute 4 on 3 there and the 2 pts are ours and Tampa only gets one. Mickey Mouse 2nd class league until the NHL decides to get real from the league front office down to the refs.
JB
January 21st, 2011
9:20 am
Thought y’all would find this interesting…
http://www.thefourthperiod.com/news/atl110120.html
This is the most detailed/specific trade rumor I’ve seen in the way of naming thrashers targets.
We all know who’s legit and who isn’t regarding the reporting of this kind of stuff. TFP’s pretty good. If this is accurate, it looks like ASG is willing to spend some $$$ to keep us in the hunt for sure.
Unrelated, Icethetics is reporting Atlanta is looking at replacing our 3rd jersey. Let’s all pray this is true.
World Be Free
January 21st, 2011
9:33 am
Tronna wants a number #1, they need a #1 to save face after the horrible Kessel trade. That will be the price for Versteeg, if we are willing to give it up. Arnott is old and washed up, like Niedermeyer in Buffalo. Pass unless Arnott is free.
GaVaHokie
January 21st, 2011
9:37 am
Arnott = Tkachuk
I don’t like any of those names… those are definitely ‘tinkering’ moves. I’d rather pay a heavier cost for something more worthwhile.
Think BIG, Dudley!
JB
January 21st, 2011
9:38 am
i was actually kind of intrigued by the thought of Connolly. I don’t think they’re willing to give up what Versteeg would cost and I don’t think they’ll go for someone as old as Arnott.
SomaAtl95
January 21st, 2011
9:44 am
Tampa = Pittsburgh. Take their star player away and the goals dry up. My disdain for Stamkos is getting close to Crotchby levels. Most people will say I’m literally full of it but some nights it doesn’t really matter if we play a 60 minute game if we are the only team being penalized. WHEN BOTH TEAMS SLOW DOWN BECAUSE THEY EXPECT A WHISTLE AND IT NEVER HAPPENS THAT SHOULD SAY SOMETHING TO THE NHL. Tampa came on strong but I imagine if the horse collar on Little had been properly called in OT our chances of burying the biscuit would have increased by a large margin. Anyone who watched 24/7 last month should remember seeing the refs drink beer after one of the games played. Last night I think the beer was delivered courtesy of Tampon Bay. It has to start bothering some teams that get away with didly squat when the teams they face can pretty much have their way with the opposition. I swear watching some Thrashers games I feel like we have the refs from “The Longest Yard” – I’ll be at the game tomorrow night and I hope that it isn’t “The Longest Breakaway”
To all of you Trolls, including the newest Troll, “The Kiss”: Did mommy never hug you when you were a child? Were you in your Thirties before you kissed a girl? What in your head justifies going to a “Fan Blog” and dropping a big steaming pile of negativity over everyone? I’m willing to bet if you were in real room with us all I doubt you’d have the stones to actually spew your rancid mouth feces in person. Do you guys sit there and fondle yourselves after thinking “Golly Gee Wally, I’m so creative that I just found a new way to insult people that I do not know”? Well nothing is going to stop any of you trolls from being yourselves, just know that Karma will eventually catch up with you and you aren’t going to like meeting people who treat you as you treat others. Enjoy your drivel – the people you plan to upset will just see your name and skip right over.
See you guys at the game tomorrow!
World Be Free
January 21st, 2011
9:49 am
GaVa-agreed get Versteeg!
Soma-next time we play Tampa, take one play and pu him on Stamkos, everywhere he goes. don’t let him breathe, negate his skills and presense.
we have to
SomaAtl95
January 21st, 2011
9:51 am
WBF – Thats the only way to neutralize the Pens as well, glue a player to Crotchby and hope he isn’t looking to punch below the belt…
World Be Free
January 21st, 2011
9:59 am
Soma-you also have the chance of negate Stamkos’ linemates too
SomaAtl95
January 21st, 2011
10:01 am
Agreed. I’m just grumpy about last nights game…
R. Stroz
January 21st, 2011
10:12 am
The NHL refs have become as corrupt as the NBA refs.
Red Light
January 21st, 2011
10:17 am
No hard anything for Buff at all Joe Friday. He’s a dynamic player, but he turned the puck over pure and simply and it wound up on Stamkos’ stick. Enstrom was on Lecavalier inside the left circle and Buff was in front of the net. There is no question this team is nowhere or nothing without him, but Enstrom supports Buff well. Don’t know why you can’t admit that simple fact.
And, by the way, since appearing on the cover of The Hockey News, he is pointless in seven games and is -3. That’s also fact. And, Enstrom hasn’t played too well either.
But, as you know, it’s not a two-man game, and you are so right, if Byfuglien doesn’t score or put up points, this team isn’t going anywhere.
Smoothie
January 21st, 2011
10:22 am
“spew your rancid mouth feces in person”
I want to nominate this as most disgusting, yet funny and awesome sentence of the new year on this fair blog! Awesomeness.
And yes, I’d rather make Simon Gagne and his washed up a$$ beat us than let Stamkos roam free around our net. WTH? They didn’t even have the midget playing with Stammer last nite yet we still can’t stop him. Terrible. I love Toby to death and, contrary to Joe’s opinion, he’s been fantastic, but I have no earthly idea what he was doing on those two goals against last nite. And yes the NHL officiating has become a complete, unmitigated joke. They hardly ever call obstruction and interference anymore and it’s becoming way too easy for trapping teams like TBL to clutch and hold at the blueline and through the NZ. We should have won that game easily last nite as DWTOO mentioned, Roloson was extremely shaky and we didn’t jam home two wonderful opportunities in the first period on doorstep rebound chances. Soooo frustrating!
Smoothie
January 21st, 2011
10:24 am
“And, by the way, since appearing on the cover of The Hockey News, he is pointless in seven games and is -3. That’s also fact. And, Enstrom hasn’t played too well either”
Red Light – Enstrom probably is wearing down a bit, but at least he had something like 8 points over the last 7 games prior to last nite. Byfuglien doesn’t have a point in January does he?