Tonight’s game vs Lightning isn’t a ‘must win’ for Thrashers, however…
Last night I sat down at my desk and performed a little advanced math exercise. Armed with graph paper, a slide rule, calculator and a No. 2 pencil, I figure something out that just might interest you. Now, I’ll spare you the lengthy explanations nor shall I bore you by posting charts and graphs here, instead going straight to the conclusion.
If the Atlanta Thrashers do indeed lose to the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight…whether it be in regulation or overtime…they will still have a mathematical chance to make the playoffs this spring.
Again, there’s really just not enough time and space here to explain the “whats” and “whys” involved with this finding. So, just take my word on this.
With that in mind, placing the “must win game” label on tonight’s matchup with the division rival would not be fitting, in my opinion. However, I must admit that to me there is an extra importance to this evening’s battle with the Bolts. I say that for a couple of reasons.
Evander Kane makes his way around Tampa Bay's Victor Hedman during the 2009-10 season opening game. Kane notched his first NHL point that night by assisting on a Rich Peverley goal and the Thrashers won 6-3. It was also the last time Atlanta beat the Bolts (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)
First off, it’s a matchup with the team currently atop the Southeast Division…six points ahead of and with one game in hand on the Thrashers. In between the two is the Washington Capitals, one point behind Tampa Bay. So if Atlanta is going to make any move at the division title, tonight would be a very good time to begin that push. This is especially true given that in the next four games leading up to the All Star Game, the Thrashers play those two teams three times.
Lightning will strike again for Atlanta this coming Sunday afternoon.
Now I’ll admit right here that while I do think the Thrashers will indeed make it to the postseason this spring, I don’t really hold much hope that they’ll do so as division champs.
But stranger things have happened in sports, ya know.
Tough as it might be even with a win against the Lightning tonight, it’d almost be an impossibility if they find themselves even further behind a week from now. Not mathematically, mind you…but realistically speaking.
Another reason I am placing a little more emphasis on this game versus your average, run of the mill January tilt with a division foe is because of the impact it may have not only in the standings…but between the ears as well. The Thrashers have lost nine straight against this Tampa Bay team dating back to the beginning of last season. The last time the Lightning failed to take two points away from a game with Atlanta was opening night 2009 when they fell 6-3 in Philips Arena.
They are rapidly becoming to the Thrashers what Philadelphia and Boston were for several years recently. After a while it’s only natural for coaches and players to start wondering just what in the heck it’ll take to finally beat that #$%@ team. And eventually, that sort of run starts to work against a team mentally. And if one team comes out of the locker room with any such self-doubt going up against any NHL squad, that other team has already taken the first strides towards the win before the puck is even dropped.
So with all that in mind, while it’s certainly not something I would classify in the “must win” column, a win tonight would surely go a long way to help the Thrashers situation both in the standings and psychologically. A
And that would be a very good thing indeed…any way you add it up.
New Rawhide’s Rowdies Ticket Deal – Feb. 13 vs. Hurricanes
On Sunday February 13, we’ll welcome in division rival Carolina for an afternoon matinee. The Thrashers organization has been kind enough to extend another Rawhide’s Rowdies offer for you, the readers of this blog. For this game, we’ll gather in sections 203 and 204 and the ticket price will be only $26.00.
But wait…there’s more.
For those of you who will be taking advantage of this deal, you’ll also receive a free Thrashers replica jersey like the one pictured to the left as well. It has Zach Bogosian’s name and No. 4 on the back.
Simply call Karin Beckman at 404-878-3781 or e-mail her at Karin.Beckman@atlantaspirit.com to procure your tickets and jersey today. Act quickly as there’s only a limited supply available.
Also remember that you can still get good deals on this month’s games by simply clicking —>HERE<– and using promo code RAWHIDE.
Get your tickets, get your free replica jersey and get your butts down to Blueland!
By: Bill Tiller – AJC.com Thrashers Fan Blog
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206 comments Add your comment
moriler
January 20th, 2011
1:29 pm
i dont know of anyplace that’ll serve a six-pack and a boiled potato around here, RL.
Trixie (Rawhide's Secretary)
January 20th, 2011
1:30 pm
Mr. Red Light – Johnny MacCracken’s is located at 15 Atlanta St. SE just off the southeast corner of the Marietta Square. There is also a Tilted Kilt next to the Coscto in Kennesaw
Mr. Moriler – I can neither confirm nor deny your inquiry.
Red Light
January 20th, 2011
1:33 pm
Thanks Bill.
Johnnie McCracken’s Celtic Pub?
Red Light
January 20th, 2011
1:35 pm
Er, Thanks Trixie!
GaVaHokie
January 20th, 2011
1:55 pm
I second McCracken’s
cousin Eddie
January 20th, 2011
2:05 pm
Keegan’s Pub on Barrett Pkwy. is pretty good and there is Patty’s on 41 (sports bar atmosphere). Food is better at Keegan’s and both are in Kennesaw.
GaVaHokie
January 20th, 2011
2:07 pm
Haha… how ironic… my trade is audit defense.
So, Sage’s job is to find reasons to attack something, and mine is to find reasons to defend. Sounds about right.
ZAvalanche
January 20th, 2011
2:18 pm
RL, I like Johnny McCrackans Firehouse, had that a few times, good stuff.
Rawhide
January 20th, 2011
2:25 pm
Per C-Viv tweets: “RT @erlendssontrib: Just FYI, Dwayne Roloson will start 2nite in goal 4 #tblightning vs. #Thrashers.”
and…
“#Thrashers reassign prospect Michael Forney to AHL Chicago from ECHL Gwinnett.”
Hollywould
January 20th, 2011
2:26 pm
Just got 4 tickets to the game on the 13th. With the way Bogo is playing I am sure his jersey will go in the section of my closet along with Kovy, Hossa, P. Kerney, Chris Chandler, Deion Sanders. Look forward to meeting some of you at the game.
GaVaHokie
January 20th, 2011
2:28 pm
Hollywould… I hear ya… my closet has Lehtonen, Kozlov and Kovy. I stopped putting numbers on my jersey’s. In fact, I haven’t worn a jersey all season.
Diego from Lilburn
January 20th, 2011
2:29 pm
I predict that the Boulton/Burmy/Thorburn line will do well tonight as well as the Cormier/Little/Stewart line.
Sadly I think the Dawes/Antropov/Stapleton line will be two guys trying real hard and one slow guy trying real hard to keep up with the other two.
GaVaHokie
January 20th, 2011
2:30 pm
… I also have Vick and Duckett… almost bought Deangelo Hall (as a former Hokie). I decided, even as a Hokie, I hate that bastard.
Hollywould
January 20th, 2011
2:33 pm
GaVaHokie, Are u goin to the game on the 13th?
Tom Lysiak
January 20th, 2011
2:37 pm
GaVaHokie – I believe I am responsible for your owning the Kovy jersey. Didn’t you go find it at Dick’s Sporting Goods in Kennesaw after I posted the deal they had? Sorry ’bout that if so.
BTW, I still have my #17 jersey in my closet. I broke it out for the Devils game in December. I had taped over the existing name and written “TEAM KILLER” on mine……
Hollywould
January 20th, 2011
2:41 pm
I’m with u on Hall. My gofing buddy lived next to him at Chateau Elan. Actually said he was nice guy
but had some pit bulls that would get out of the yard. Scared all around them. Don’t know if he still lives there.
Hollywould
January 20th, 2011
2:42 pm
Funny Tom, I might do that next time. lol
Red Light
January 20th, 2011
2:52 pm
Thank you one and all for your input about the pubs.
I haven’t worn any personalized jersey, signed or otherwise, with any NHL player’s name and number on it since the NHL Alumni golf tournament five years ago when the real Tom Lysiak signed it for me. I guess I have been to too many Irish Pubs after all.
Tom Lysiak
January 20th, 2011
3:01 pm
Dang it Red Light. I am not surprised that you have number 12 signed. The “fake” Tom Lysiak should have one of those if anyone does…..
Thrashers27
January 20th, 2011
3:04 pm
Nabby, anyone? If Mason’s gonna be out for awhile, why not? Even if Mason plans on skating next week, it’s not like he’s been playing well enough to feel secure in his position. Nabby could be a good compliment to Pavs.
ZAvalanche
January 20th, 2011
3:06 pm
RL, I don’t think there is such a thing as having visited too many Irish Pubs. But that is just my opinion.
I own 2 jerseys and both have the same name on them – Forsberg. Those will be the last jerseys I will ever buy.
LAC
January 20th, 2011
3:08 pm
Need to HIT tonight and play DEFENSE !!!!
Thrashers27
January 20th, 2011
3:10 pm
I guess I should preface my previous post by pointing out that according to TSN, Evgeni Nabakov is about to sign with Detroit. He’ll need to clear waivers to return to the NHL.
GaVaHokie
January 20th, 2011
3:21 pm
Thrashers27… Bob McKenzie was guessing the deal might have something that could “discourage” other teams from claiming him. Don’t know what that could possibly be.
Hollywould… I have no idea what my next game is. It’s usually a game day decision for me. All I know, so far, is I’m not going tonight.
Tom Lysiak… I remember you posting the Kovy jersey sale, but I actually got mine before that… you’re exonerated.
@not_CThorburn
January 20th, 2011
3:25 pm
Welcome to the Greek God line, Burmy! Let’s get another Boulton hat trick tonight!
Darren
January 20th, 2011
3:45 pm
It’s almost as if you and Sage were destined to be pitted against one another in life, Hokie.
I don’t think the Thrashers are in the market for Nabokov with Pavelec clearly their go-to guy.
Interesting that TFP has Brunette listed as a possible target (oh dear.. there somebody goes using dangerous and inciting language again) for Atlanta. Might we see a reuniting of an original Thrasher?
Actually he wouldn’t be a bad fit on a Ramsay team. He’s carved himself out a pretty fine career. Also lists Tanguay or Moulson, both of whom I also wouldn’t mind seeing Atlanta acquire at a reasonable price. Bolland? Meh.. we have enough guys (Slater/Burmistrov/Cormier/even Thorburn) who are 3rd/4th line centers. Moulson also likes to shoot, so Ramsay would love that.
Thrashers27
January 20th, 2011
3:46 pm
I remember that, Tom. I got myself a Kovy jersey at Dicks thanks to you, you son of a…nah just kidding. For $35 I’d even consider buying a “Crotchby” sweater.
Tom
January 20th, 2011
3:58 pm
Sage vs Hokie – The Highlander Series
There Shall Be Only One
Red Light
January 20th, 2011
4:05 pm
Some team other than Detroit will claim Nabokov off waivers before he ever steps foot in the Motor City.
What McKenzie is alluding to is this year’s cap hit. Because Detroit has long-term injury replacement cap room of $3.5 million (Datsyuk, Osgood and Modano among others), and a total of $8.8 million in cap space, they can make Nabby a great offer to join them for the balance of the season, which makes his waiver price unpalatable for most of those higher echelon teams that need a goalie, like the Flyers for instance!
Lets say they offer him $7 million, which prorated for the last 36 games of the year = roughly $3.073 million. Some teams would have to dump salaries to fit him in even with a waiver claim.
GaVaHokie
January 20th, 2011
4:23 pm
Red Light… great explanation, I figured as much. Which is probably why McKenzie said this…
Guessing there is something in deal to “discourage” other teams from claiming Nabby on waivers, but will it fly with NHL? Just a guess tho.
Red Light
January 20th, 2011
4:29 pm
I guess I was DEAD wrong. Here’s what Cap Geek just tweeted…
@capgeek. Deal still isn’t done, but $570,000 for the rest of the year is what I’m told. Pro-rated to about $250,000.
And, that means he most definitely will be claimed by some other team.
Joe McGrath
January 20th, 2011
4:34 pm
Owen Nolan as a Thrasher. Just looking for feedback. Thoughts please.
Red Light
January 20th, 2011
4:34 pm
The Wings, according to Dreger and Cap Geek, must save room for when Datsyuk comes off the LTIR list.
Red Light
January 20th, 2011
4:35 pm
Joe McCgrath:
Why not just sign Eric Vail and you wouldn’t have to pay for a flight since he still lives here! LOL
GaVaHokie
January 20th, 2011
4:44 pm
Owen Nolan could be a good deadline addition for a team… he’s the kind of guy you want for a few months, healthy, and not for an entire season, struggling.
… still… I pass.
Red Light, I saw those numbers too. There’s no way he puts on a Red Wings jersey. Florida, Colorado, Chicago, Washington and even Atlanta would take him at that price.
Red Light
January 20th, 2011
4:45 pm
Waiver claims are available first to those teams at the bottom of the standings. Invert the standings and you’ll see who has first crack. That probably makes Ottawa first in line of teams that need/want goaltending help because Leclaire and Elliott have been brutal. I’m sure Nabby would just be thrilled to play in Ottawa rather than Detroit!
Alan R.
January 20th, 2011
4:50 pm
So, thought for the hour: Anyone see Atlanta placing a waiver claim on Nabby?
GaVaHokie
January 20th, 2011
5:00 pm
For $250,000? I think just about every team in the league with playoff hopes would put in a claim… he’s certainly better than anyone’s back-up goalie. Bryzgalov/Nabakov, Hiller/Nabakov, Ward/Nabakov, Lundqvist/Nabakov, Pavalec/Nabakov… he instantly gives any team an affordable, reliable tandem.
goose
January 20th, 2011
5:02 pm
I wonder if the Bolland thing might be part of a larger deal? He’s got a medium cap hit (3.75) so it would be a way for them to clear salary so they could get NHL talent back in a trade instead of just picks and prospects? There was that Seabrook rumor a little while ago but I doubt they would trade him though they may be forced to as he is looking at a raise of 1.5-2.5 million. People on the Chicago blogs seemed to thing that Hjalmarsson would be the one to be traded instead. Dud’s knows his guys there so IDWT.
Red Light
January 20th, 2011
5:03 pm
Maybe re-uniting him in Tronna with his former head coach Ron Wilson???
goose
January 20th, 2011
5:03 pm
Then again its just a rumor but I think Dud’s would like to continue to deal with Chicago.
GaVaHokie
January 20th, 2011
5:17 pm
We have Mason signed for two years, so I’m not sure we’d claim Nabbie.
goose
January 20th, 2011
5:20 pm
Nabbys number in the KHL weren’t outstanding and he’s suppose to be bad in the locker room if that’s true I would doubt if Dud’s would pick him up. And then there’s Mason….
Hockey Biltong
January 20th, 2011
5:26 pm
Squash the Oompah Loompah, indeed!!!!!!
LAC
January 20th, 2011
5:53 pm
No Bogosian, should equal a close win tonight !!!!
Iron League 13
January 20th, 2011
7:16 pm
BERGIE!!! Good goal. Anywhays, does anyone else’s Directv look like your watching the game through the Yankees home jersey? What gives?
Iron League 13
January 20th, 2011
7:17 pm
anyways that is
ZAvalanche
January 20th, 2011
7:19 pm
I would take Nolan if he was the only option out there – he is just simply too old.
ZAvalanche
January 20th, 2011
8:40 pm
Just read that Little has tied Savard for the Thrasher’s all time scoring lead – with 63. Kind of shows how dire the past years have been and how many forwards have been moved in and out of here. Gotta say I was surprised that the AJC hasn’t done their homework as I believe Kovalchoke holds that distinction.
ZAvalanche
January 20th, 2011
8:42 pm
Nix that last comment, I must be drinking beers with RL or something because I read “fifth” and thought “first”. My bad. I will “go to the box for two minutes and feel shame”. Not an exact quote, but who knows it?