Addressing the Thrashers GPD (Goal Production Deficit)
As we have moved through this summer’s offseason, we’ve periodically paused to take a look at where the Thrashers roster was at that time. In the past we have use the exercise to discuss where the team was in the terms of the salary cap, but today I’d like to focus our attention to what could be the on-ice production of the players who could currently make up the Thrashers’ lineup.
Specifically speaking…goals scored.
For this exercise, I’m going to use last year’s offensive output from the players and compare those stats to last year’s overall Thrashers goal production. The record shows that Atlanta netted 234 goals in last year’s campaign, but in reality they really scored 230 times…4 were gimmick goals awarded by way of shootout wins. So for the sake of today’s discussion, I’m going use 230 goals as the comparison.
Also, I’m including in the proposed lineup the remaining Thrashers RFAs that are still likely to return. In the case of a players like Nic Bergfors and Johnny Oduya, I’m taking into consideration their entire season goal productions…both with New Jersey and Atlanta. Plus, I’m placing Patrice Cormier on the roster to bring the total number of forwards to 13. I’m doing the same on defense with Arturs Kulda.
Forwards:
Nic Antropov – 24g / 43a
Nic Antropov scored 24 goals and 43 assists for the Thrashers last season (AP photo)
Rich Peverley – 22g / 33a
Nic Bergfors – 21g / 23a
Dustin Byfuglien – 17g /17a
Andrew Ladd – 17g / 21a
Evander Kane – 14g / 12a
Bryan Little – 13g / 21a
Jim Slater – 11g / 7a
Todd White – 7g/19a
Ben Eager – 7g / 9a
Chris Thorburn – 4g / 9a
Eric Boulton – 2g / 6a
Patrice Cormier – 0g / 0a (No prior NHL experience)
Defense:
Zach Bogosian – 10g / 13a
Toby Enstrom – 6g / 44a
Ron Hainsey – 5g /21a
Johnny Oduya – 3g / 10a
Brent Sopel – 1g / 7a
Boris Valabik – 0g / 2a
Arturs Kulda – 0g / 2a
Obviously past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance, but if you add up the goals scored last season by the players listed, you wind up with a grand total of 184 …falling 46 shy of last year’s mark. This is what I refer to as the Thrashers’ Goal Production Deficit, (GPD). This GPD can be pinned on the scoring vacancy left in the wake of Ilya Kovalchuk decade-long presence in the Thrashers lineup. But we are now officially in the post-Kovy era in Thrasherville and must find other ways to plant the puck in the net on a regular basis.
So, just where the Thrashers to find the 46 extra goals to make up the difference?
First off, if Dudley and Co. were able to bring back Maxim Afinogenov that could conceivable reduce the GPD by over half, 24. Again, this assumes a repeat of last year’s showing by the Russian winger. If so, that would leave the theoretical deficit down to a more manageable -22.
Evander Kane accounted for 14 goals and 12 assists in his rookie season last year (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)
Also, as a side note, you would be looking at a team built around the concept of “balanced” scoring. Not one of those players put in more than 24 goals last year.
But even if Max does return…and does turn in another performance as he did in 2009-10…where do you find the other 22 goals? A couple places come to mind here.
First, if you believe as I do that Bryan Little is good for 20 goals a year, then you’re no doubt expecting him to shake off last season’s sophomore slump and increase last year’s 13 goals production by at least 7.
Also, if Evander Kane can find a way to avoid that dreaded sophomore slump, then I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to see him improve on the 14 he netted in his rookie season. Let’s say he too can improve to 20 goals…6 more than last season.
That leaves us 8 goals short of last year’s total. Where do you find ten more goals?
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm…
Hey, do you think maybe …possibly… conceivably… theoretically… we could get someone like, say, Todd White to up his production by 8?
shrugs…
More than likely, 8 more goals would come by way of a 2 here, 1 there scenario from multiple players. But that’s what you need to happen in a post-Kovalchuk era…everyone else picking up the slack to close the GPD.
But What…There’s More Deficits To Discuss
While we’re at it, let’s also recognize the other deficit issue with this current crop of Thrashers…the assist totals. Last year Thrashers skaters earned a total of 411 assists, which was the 8th highest total in the NHL.
But the players listed above accounted for just 319. This produces an assists deficit disorder, (ADD), of 92. 32 of that total went with Pavel Kubina when he departed for Tampa Bay.
Returning to Afinogenov, he netted 37 assists last season…so even if the Thrashers re-signed Max, the ADP is –55. You’re gonna have to look all over the roster to address that deficit.
And Finally… I Tweet, Therefore, I Am
Those of you who know me well understand that I have been reluctant to join the twitterverse. Personally, I don’t think people need to know my every move or every thought.
However, Big Shooter of The Blueland Chronicle recently took on the task of proselytizing me into the twitter collective. Apparently he insists on knowing my every move, every thought and every idea in order to make it through the day. When I’m on my back deck, he needs a tweet from me saying so. When I am preparing dinner, he must read what I’m dishing up. When I make my way to the water closet…he must be number one or number two to know.
I resisted, of course, but when he informed me that he could not guarantee my personal safety…or that certain juicy bits of dirty laundry might make it’s way to the blogosphere…I reconsidered.
I guess that’s what I get for spending a weeking in Nashville with The Blueland Chronicle boys last winter. Ya know, Tennessee police detectives and strange women still show up at my door with pictures of BS asking if I know who this man is.
But you know what they say…what happens in Nashvegas, stays in Nashvegas.
Anywway, upon further reconsideration, I have relented…even though quite reluctantly…and have allowed myself to be assimilated into the twitter fold.
Obviously, this made Big Shooter very happy indeed.
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150 comments Add your comment
Badger Bob
July 22nd, 2010
11:35 pm
ben – this team will be comfortably above the cap floor once all the RFAs are signed. Pavs taking a pay cut sure helped, but after you add Ladd, Eager, Bergie and Little (perhaps $9-11M) to our current payroll ($37.4M), we’re not only above the floor, we’re dangerously close to the likely internal cap. Duds knows he’s got room for one more $3M player, so he wants to make sure its the right one, or get someone for a discount.
Of course casting away White’s deadweight $2.4M would also help…
ben
July 23rd, 2010
1:05 am
So 3 + 2.4 is 5.4? Also, Zit comes off the books. But wait? With Kari, Mad Max, Kozzy, Kovy all gone, won’t that drive the payroll down? What is the Salary now?
World Be Free
July 23rd, 2010
5:36 am
Watch Todd White have a 20 goal season this year-if this happens, will we want to resign him next summer? Just asking…..
DWTOO
July 23rd, 2010
7:26 am
WBF – What’s in your coffee? White could have a 30 goal season and I wouldn’t want him resigned. Perhaps the year after next since he appears to only play every other year.
kracker
July 23rd, 2010
7:34 am
WBF – “Watch Todd White have a 20 goal season this year…”
Let him do that first! Then maybe he has a future…but regardless, it will be somewhere else. Duds wants younger, larger, grittier players.
World Be Free
July 23rd, 2010
7:35 am
DWTOO-I wonder who would jump on that one first! I am a little bored this morning, thought I would stir the pot. Have a great Friday.
World Be Free
July 23rd, 2010
7:41 am
The Tomas Kaberle Saga is what’s eating me today. The Toronto Maple Leafs, one of the “class” organizations in the NHL have had the for sale sign on Kaberle the last two seasons. He’s up for grabs until his NTC kicks in on August 15. How would you like to be this guy? I know it’s hard to feel for any professional athlete that gets paid a ton of money for playing a kids’ game. If the Atlanta Thrashers carried this event out as long as the Leafs have, they’d be ridiculed by every media outlet in North America, especially in Canada. But the Leafs can do this and they’re given a pass because they are in a “hockey town”. Trade the guy or commit to keep him-and so many people question the commitment to players and winning in cities like Atlanta, Florida and Carolina. Now we see why legitimate tier 1 UFAs avoid Toronto these days.
Joe Friday
July 23rd, 2010
8:02 am
“Watch Todd White have a 20 goal season this year-if this happens, will we want to resign him next summer?”
Yeah, when donkey’s fly. Wait, what?
I think as soon as Ladd’s salary is set, we’ll see them bring the last piece in.
rob
July 23rd, 2010
8:07 am
Rawhide,
While I see the concern with the goals there are far more variables than just what you have on there. Ice time would be one. With the absence of some of the guys now departed others will play more which would equal more goals. You have to account for Cormier and Kulda(or whoever else comes in and plays some games and scores like Stapleton did) Slater plays all year give him 5 more. Zach is probably good for 5 more with a healthy season(still mad they played him like that last year). Toby should be good for at LEAST 5 more now that his pass buddy Kovy is gone. Hainsey looked a lot better once he and Zach were split, could be 4 more there. Now take into consideration that with Kovy/Kozzy gone A LOT of power play time just opened up and there are more goals to be picked up. I know you say our PP sucked after Kovy left but I have to think that was not the teams fault but the direction given them by a now departed coaching staff. While landing a defensively minded forward who can land us 20 would be great, I think if you look at the bigger picture here, we probably have them here. Mason having a good season is the key to me, and the team has to play as a cohesive unit. Will Buff come in and want to play hard or sulk, that might be another concern.
Bring on Oct. 8th!
World Be Free
July 23rd, 2010
8:31 am
I knew you would like that one Joe
Spud Webb
July 23rd, 2010
8:37 am
Poor Marty, flipping traded to florida. Heres a guy who busts his butt, low key, all around great guy. Finally going to a winner in chicago and BAM, down to the panthers. Sorry Marty, truly I am.
Rawhide
July 23rd, 2010
8:39 am
Watch Todd White have a 20 goal season this year-if this happens, will we want to resign him next summer? Just asking…..
WBF – If White scored 20 goals this season, he’d simply be doing his job. Again, I’m giving serious consideration to putting him on the milk carton starting right at the beginning of the season…see if that will spark a good start from him.
But even if he does score 20 or more it wouldn’t cause me to want to re-sign him. Remember, he will be 36-years old next May.
rob – Good points you make.
Flames
July 23rd, 2010
8:39 am
Jack-The team is wanting to sign the RFA first. They are trying to avoid going to arbitration on a couple of players. Duds wants to lock in a couple of the players for two-three years. (Ladd, Buff) They believe that time is on their side. Duds will get another scorer…Just who it might be is still to be determined. They believe that they are sitting in a good spot to get a quality player. There is talk around the league that the Thrashers are now heading in the right direction with the current staff and recent acquisition. Can you believe that the Thrashers are getting some respect. I’m hoping for Frolov, but I’m not holding my breath.
Badger Bob
July 23rd, 2010
9:51 am
ben, check out http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=ATL or http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=7 for full salary info.
Spud, I’m with you on the Marty thing – way too classy and good a guy to get treated like that. I’ve got to believe that Chicago wanted him in the Buff trade, but then realized even his reasonable salary was going to be too much (especially after the Hjalmarsson offer sheet / contract). Giving him away like that makes Bowman look a little erratic.
kracker
July 23rd, 2010
10:13 am
RE all the comments about Marty leaving a ‘Stanley Cup’ team for the Panthers, I rather doubt the Hawks will be serious contenders after their final roster is assembled. I saw yesterday they had 16 players signed, leaving them about $130K in cap space! I mean if they can’t afford Reasoner, they are hurting for sure.
That said, Marty would probably prefer the Hawks over the Panthers for hockey but he and his family can’t be too displeased about living in Miami, at least from a weather standpoint.
kracker
July 23rd, 2010
10:25 am
Sorry, make that $138K available to the Hawks. lol
Jack
July 23rd, 2010
10:28 am
Thanks Flames hopefully they can lock up everyone prior to arbitration. You never know knew regime, maybe white caqn prosper.
Frolov would be intersting pick, just concerned about his Russian defense. IE hope he is better on defense than kchoke.
Badger Bob
July 23rd, 2010
10:37 am
Hawks are looking much more ordinary, and they’ll likely need one more move after they sign Niemi and bury Huet in the AHL.
Here’s an agrument for patience for all us posters with Dudley. Consider that Chicago is acting even more desperate now than in June (giving away Marty now, vs. insisting on fair value for Buff in June). This kind of desperation will be taking hold there and in Boston, so prices will continue to drop. Mix that in with some quality UFAs still available, and it is a dream buyers market for a top 9 20 goal player.
Also, Rawhide, I noticed I got the “your comment is awaiting approval” or some such message when I posted those links this morning. Nice! That should stop the “Trixie release my post” requests. First Twitter, now this? You are getting to be Mr. Techie!
rob
July 23rd, 2010
10:55 am
138K?!?! Maybe CMac should contact them now that he is free!
kracker
July 23rd, 2010
10:58 am
A few years ago, we always got the “your comment is awaiting approval” type of message. Your comment might take 5 minutes to actually get posted. So you would post and then it was necessary to refresh a few minutes to see your comment.
Smoothie
July 23rd, 2010
10:59 am
Badger – you raise a very good point about Boston. The Wheeler RFA hearing, if it gets to that point, could be the turning point of the offseason. BOS does not want to lose him and after they ante up to keep him in the fold, something will have to give. Perhaps they will wind up “giving” us a player of Bergeron’s caliber now that they have Seguin.
They will need picks and prospects, but trading with us won’t be as attractive as trading with Tronna last year (since we might actually be good). Who knows? We might even dangle Postma and Espo along with a 1st rounder to get Bergeron. I think I’d do that. Antro could move back to the wing and a Bergie-Bergee(accent aigue)-Antro line could be very, very lethal.
World Be Free
July 23rd, 2010
11:54 am
Dallas Stars forward Fabian Brunnstrom avoided arbitration by taking a 1 year deal at $675,000/year. You can’t get much less than that! I guess Fabian, the one-hit wonder with the Stars was worried about getting NHL minimum wage.
Smoothie
July 23rd, 2010
12:04 pm
WBF – I guess you could say his “star” has fallen in Dallas, eh?
World Be Free
July 23rd, 2010
12:15 pm
The only thing real bad is that Fabian decided on Dallas over Tronna. As it turns out, it would have better to have him with the Leafs. Brunnstrom would have been one more slug the Leafs would have overpaid then had to get rid of. This was back in the John Ferguson Jr days-he loved to overpay players!
da' boomer
July 23rd, 2010
12:57 pm
Bring back Billy Jaffe!!!
Smoothie
July 23rd, 2010
12:59 pm
Billy Jaffe was flat-out “Wanged” and that isn’t right. He was money.
Would love to have him back, but with Daren entrenched, we got no room for BJ except for the radio booth, but I doubt he would want to go backwards into radio. Especially working for those chumps at 680.
rob
July 23rd, 2010
1:20 pm
Speaking of 680……anyone know where I can get a bumper sticker so I can put SUCKS on it in permanent marker and put it on my truck? Didnt see any on the websight…..maybe if they are out doing something I can get one?
R. Stroz
July 23rd, 2010
2:02 pm
Watch Todd White have a 20 goal season this year-if this happens, will we want to resign him next summer? Just asking…..
WBF – You must be suffering from premature imbibing disorder going into the weekend.
rob
July 23rd, 2010
2:18 pm
If that happens, his next team can sign him to a deal that goes up and down every year in prep for his output. 2M, then 600k, then 2M, then 600k
World Be Free
July 23rd, 2010
2:21 pm
Stroz-you’re late today, expected you to respond before anyone else!
I am not serious, just wanted to rattle everyone’s cage today, slow hockey news day today.
R. Stroz
July 23rd, 2010
2:30 pm
WBF – Mrs. R. Stroz had a rather significant medical procedure early today.
All is well, she is sleeping away.
Badger Bob
July 23rd, 2010
2:33 pm
“We might even dangle Postma and Espo along with a 1st rounder to get Bergeron.” Patrice only has one year left on his contract, so while that price might be fair normally, with BOS needing to move someone that price it too steep – at least the Postma part of it – we’d regret losing him.
Rawhide
July 23rd, 2010
2:38 pm
Since the subject of what Todd White’s offensive production may/may not be this coming season was brought up…I though it might be interesting to allow you all to have a look back to last summer to review what was said around here regarding White’s possible 2009-10 season totals.
I know…obvioulsy I didn’t consult the “Official Blog Manual” back then either when it came to what topics should or should not be discussed.
Smoothie
July 23rd, 2010
3:39 pm
Wow! I was drinkin’ some seriously spiked Little White Russian kool-aid!
And is / was EOB really timmyf!!? I kid, I kid.
kracker
July 23rd, 2010
3:44 pm
Rawhide, you set the over/under at 65. I took the under. I just wasn’t expecting it to be waaay under. Todder had an underwhelming 26 points (7 + 19) in 65 games.
kracker
July 23rd, 2010
3:50 pm
Yeah Smoothie, you said back then “No doubt Hokie, the Tampons could be really tuff this year if the chemistry is there.”
It’s hard to predict things, isn’t it, Smoothie? The Bolts weren’t quite tuff enough. People are saying similar things now about thieir upcoming season, at least offensively.
World Be Free
July 23rd, 2010
4:08 pm
Good to hear Stroz
Smoothie
July 23rd, 2010
4:20 pm
kracker – no doubt but at least I qualified my statement with “if the chemistry is there”. Obviously, chemistry was lacking or Tanguay simply went the way of the Charmin…down the tubes!
kracker
July 23rd, 2010
4:35 pm
Yeah Smoothie, you did and I could have worded that better. It wasn’t a prediction (Brendan keeps the official predictions lol), just us talking on the blog like always. And I felt the same way, mostly because they are a div foe and I always worry about who is going to get better in the division.
kracker
July 23rd, 2010
4:45 pm
I just figured out your ‘EOB/timmyf’ comment! lol
Anyway, like Walter says in “The Big Lebowski” ‘Ah, (eff) it dude, let’s go bowling!’ The ASHE tourney is coming up next month so I have to practice.
Red Light
July 23rd, 2010
4:59 pm
As long as you all continue to pile on Todd White, in order to reach the 20-goal plateau as World Be Free mentioned earlier, I did a quick calculation on what would have to occur to make that happen based upon his post-lockout statistics.
Todd has averaged 15 goals per season during the past 5 seasons, during which he has averaged 72 games played per season and 17:01 of ice time per game. Thus, he has scored one goal for every 81:35 of ice time during the past 5 seasons. That means that in order for him to score 20 goals this season, Coach Ramsay will have to send him over the boards an average of 22:40 per game for 72 games to reach that lofty goal.
By the way, based upon last season’s stats, that would make him No. 1 among forwards in ice time in the entire NHL, or 38 seconds above Kovalchuk’s per-game mark in 2009-10.
Could happen!
SARCASM ALERT
July 23rd, 2010
5:00 pm
See above
Red Light
July 23rd, 2010
5:03 pm
Here is a question that has been nagging me for years. Let me know if you’ve ever wondered the same…
http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/9545
Smoothie
July 23rd, 2010
5:04 pm
Bowling! Yes, love it. We should have a Rawhide’s Rowdies Bowling Tourney at some point to kick off the season. Perhaps during Training Camp in Sept??
Red Light
July 23rd, 2010
5:17 pm
Glad to hear Mrs. R. Stroz is resting comfortably.
I hope we can all assume that vuvuzela practice at the R. Stroz household has been canceled until further notice.
R. Stroz
July 23rd, 2010
5:39 pm
WBF & Red Light – Thanks for your thoughts concerning Mrs. R. Stroz
Red Light – Vuvuzela practice has been postponed for a few weeks.
Smoothie – I’m in for bowling. FWIW, I’d prefer U.S. Play in Kennesaw
Midfield
July 23rd, 2010
5:55 pm
NHL is reported to partner with 20th Century Fox in produsing a Star Wars sequal starring Jay Grossman as Darth Vader, Garry Bettman as Yoda and Ilya Kovalchuk as Prince Lee Organ.
Brendan
July 23rd, 2010
6:07 pm
If beer drinking can enhance performance in a sport, that sport is surely bowling. At least, I think so. Those pins are a long ways down the lane. Those 12 pins look more like 15, if you’ve have a few. I tells ya, a 160 bowler turns into a 220 bowler after a few pitchers.
kracker, I only keep official AJC contest predictions. If someone said, “Let’s see if Zach Bogosian actually scores 20 goals this year,” I might make a mental note of it, at best. We don’t have any active contests yet this year.
Rubbin’ my chin, but we *might* do a “Guess the 2010 Opening Night Budget” contest. If so, the guesses would pretty much have to be submitted by September 1, with the understanding that a specific website for hockey would be used as the “official determinant” of the contest winner, as based on that particular website’s figure for the Atlanta Thrashers. And no, the 9-game audition figure doesn’t get retroactively figured into the contest. As per every year, the contest winner has been determined by guessing the closest figure to actual posted salary cap for the Thrashers. People sometimes got very worked up over whether they had won, based on a different website’s figures, or if we substracted the 9-game audition situations, etc. But, honestly, the whole, entire point of the “Guess the Budget” contest was to show what kind of ownership we have, here in Atlanta. With the emphasis being on just how close the Thrashers could be to the FLOOR of the cap. What could be a bigger beacon for potential free agents to sign here … than our ownership’s commitment to the pursuit of the Cup, via its budget. **Note, this is the time when you should put a metal soup pot over your head, grab a wooden spoon … and bang it loudly enough to drown out the sound of the next sentence, a la Forest Gump saying, “Life’s like a box of chocolates” for the umpteenth time, for a poster will surely arrive to indicate, (say it with me,) “Just because a team spends a lot of money doesn’t mean it will be successful. Just look at the (Supply team name to illustrate futility in spending here).” Okay, now you can stop banging.
I am, however, much more confident that we will actually do the “Guess the 2010-11 Thrashers point total contest” this year. It has been fairly popular throughout this message board over the years. We had many, many guesses last year. It sometimes comes down to the “tie-breakers.” As in, “2nd in Southeast Division, 10th in conference.” Some posters actually predict a win total to help distinguish their guess from other posters who have guessed the same total of 85-points, for example. The deadline for contest entries is always “puck drop” of Opening Night.
The “Guess the Date/Team Kovalchuk signs with” contest had no winner … because none of us guessed right. And while Kovalchuk does, technically, remain un-signed, no poster had New Jersey as the destination. Some posters picked Washington and New York (Rangers). No one selected the KHL. I remain confident, however, that R.Stroztradamus will submit an un-authorized late entry that will be DEAD ON correct. His accuracy is legendary. I’ve never quite seen anything like it.
Brendan
July 23rd, 2010
6:09 pm
R.Stroz, best wishes for a speedy recovery for your better half.
Joe Friday
July 23rd, 2010
6:38 pm
said a prayer for her, stroz!
lol: http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puck_daddy/post/Eulogy-Hilariously-outrageous-Twitter-ramblings?urn=nhl-257447