Kovalchuk drama taking place outside of Thrasherville…thankfully
Monday July 19. U-Day +18 of this summer’s UFA signing season. Many big name free agents have inked contracts with new teams, some have made their way to Russia and a few more are still waiting for the right team to offer up the right terms.
The biggest name on that “still yet to be signed list” is of course one Mr. Ilya Kovalchuk.
Once the face of the Thrashers franchise, Ilya Kovalchuk now faces the prospect of listening to offers that would pay less than what he could have made in Atlanta (AP photo)
Over the course of the past two and a half weeks, many rumors and rumor of rumors have had Kovy going such places as Long Island, back to New Jersey or even returning home to mother Russia. But Los Angeles still seems to be the chic pick by most as to where he’ll eventually land. As such, ever since July 1 we’ve been treated to tweet after tweet from [insert name of ‘tweeter’ here] telling us that they are 92.8% sure Kovalchuk is almost definitely going to sign with LA…maybe even as soon as tomorrow morning.
But tomorrow morning comes and all we are greeted with is more tweeters tweeting they are sure that this is the day.
So how must it feel to be a Kings fan the days… sitting on the edge of their seat, ear to the radio, face to the computer screen, nose to the twitter account…as they await the almost certain coming news that Kovy is heading to SoCal? Well, here’s something that may helpto depict how this drama is playing out in the L.A. twitterverse, (thanks to my good friend “Russian”).
And now that we’re deep into week number three of this saga, some pundits are beginning to opine as to how the Russian winger has misread the market as well as suggested how he could have/should have handled the situation from the get-go. (Note here how Steven Ovadia has used another former Thrasher, Marian Hossa, to illustrate his point).
I would also like to remind you that stringing out contract talks isn’t exactly a new thing for Ilya Kovalchuk and his agent. You’ll no doubt remember that we here in Thrasherville were treated to our own version of “As the Kovalchuk Turns” back in the summer of 2005. That year he waited so long to sign a deal that we were minus his services for the first three games of the season.
If he were so inclined, would you care to see Ilya Kovalchuk signed by the Thrashers?
- Yes! I'd sign him at any price! (6%, 13 Votes)
- Sure, but not at $9-$10 mil per season (47%, 96 Votes)
- No! Not at any price! (47%, 95 Votes)
Total Voters: 204
Loading ...So if there is to be a repeat of that holdout drama, then Kovy-Watch ’10 as only just begun.
About the only thing that seems to be certain regarding Ilya’s summer adventure this time is that he’s not going to get the same coin as the Thrashers offered up to him last winter. $10 million for 3 to 7 years or somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 mil for 12 years is now seems surely out of the question for Kovy.
So just where will Kovalchuk eventual wind up…and when will he wind up there? shrugs…I dunno. But all I can say is that I’m glad happy thrilledecstatic that Thrasherville is not the site of this particular saga.
In fact, I’m sorta looking forward this coming season in which the Thrashers aren’t having to deal with such distractions. You know, distractions such as whether or not superstars like Marian Hossa or Ilya Kovalchuk will re-sign…or if Kari Lehtonen’s back/groin/[insert issue here] will keep him out of the lineup for an extended period of time.
Quite frankly…Thrasherville can do without the drama.
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258 comments Add your comment
Badger Bob
July 19th, 2010
1:45 pm
Hossa’s best years – Atlanta (92 pt/season here; 70 pt/season elsewhere)
Savard’s best years – Atlanta (87 pt/season here; 69 pt/season elsewhere)
Kovy’s best years – Atlanta (85 pt/season here; TBD elsewhere).
No doubt that Kovy’s best years statistically are now behind him. The only way this deal looks good is a Cup at the Rock. Does Kovy really move them closer to that?
Brendan
July 19th, 2010
1:46 pm
And no one can “offer” good Karma. Karma is what it is. And allegedly, it is fair and just.
Badger Bob
July 19th, 2010
1:47 pm
Darn, I intended to make comment 101 be “101 million reasons why I’m happy Kovy’s not here”. You were all spared that lengthy rant…
Karma
July 19th, 2010
1:50 pm
Actually Brendan, I’m just a bitch!
The Smooth Spark
July 19th, 2010
1:51 pm
Badger – are you using averages?
No doubt Kovy will never reach 98 points again playing for the Devils.
But then again, I could be wrong.
Brendan
July 19th, 2010
1:52 pm
Zajac, my apologies. I think several teams will now be asking for him. But, then again, I didn’t catch the length of Kovy’s contract. What if it’s only a 1-year deal? The Devils may not be moving guys with 3 years left on their contracts. If Kovy’s deal was 7-years, then some of those players with 3-years left on their contracts will come back into play.
Brendan
July 19th, 2010
1:53 pm
But only a Beeotch to those who’ve had it coming …. Paging Mr. Levenson.
Alan R.
July 19th, 2010
1:54 pm
Brendan – I’m sure Lou Lam wishes he could, though, but Mr. Karma won’t fit under the salary cap!
Brendan
July 19th, 2010
1:54 pm
Badger Bob, the offense was always higher in Atlanta than elsewhere … because Atlanta was not committed to playing sound defense. So naturally, Hossa, Savard, Kovalchuk … would hit their numbers playing pedal to the medal offense.
Brendan
July 19th, 2010
1:55 pm
Alan R. is correct. Karma cannot be contained!
Badger Bob
July 19th, 2010
1:57 pm
Smoothie, I’m using pt/game average times 82 games.
I offer the Hossa and Savard comprisons for two reasons. One, people (mostly in Canada) love to say “what would [insert former Thrashers star] do with real talent around him”. Answer: score less. Two, those players have had to fit into team molds that have decreased their output. No doubt NJ has a mold, and Kovy floating at center ice desn’t fit it. I’d put money on Kovy never reaching 98 points again. I’d be tempted to put money on him not reaching 45 goals again.
Tom
July 19th, 2010
1:57 pm
I do not like this – Gagne to Tampa is being reported by NHLSourcesSay on Twitter.
The Smooth Spark
July 19th, 2010
1:58 pm
Now there’s a rumor about Gagne going to Tampa. Man they just love having French Quebecers lace ‘em up in the sleezy Bay of Teezy, eh?
Alan R.
July 19th, 2010
1:59 pm
Tom – Eklund has a higher accuracy rate than NHLSourcesSay. Take that as you will.
Tom
July 19th, 2010
2:01 pm
Ouch, thanks for the heads up Alan R.
Still, Gagne is one of the players in the league that has always impressed me with his offensive play. I would hate that he would be in the division.
Brendan
July 19th, 2010
2:02 pm
Tom, first Tampa Bay gets Kubina, now they’re getting Simon Gagne? All I can say is, “I hope Mike Smith and Dan Ellis have the worst years of their careers.” The bolts have St. Louis, Lecavalier, Stamkos, and Viktor Hedman and Meszaros on D. Yikes.
hip czech
July 19th, 2010
2:02 pm
Travis Zajac, we would love to have you here. Bring Zach Parise with you.
The Smooth Spark
July 19th, 2010
2:03 pm
Not so fast Brendan, Hossa was a +18 the year he scored 100 points for the Thrash. We were good enough to advance deep into the Eastern Conf playoffs that year, but we choked. If Lehtonen plays like he played in March down the stretch versus the head-case he became, then who knows? And speaking of karma, is that how we explain the crazy puck carom against the Rangers in game 2 that swung the momentum in the wrong direction. By Sean Avery no less! Levenson probably thinks Karma has already scorned him as a mistress.
Rawhide
July 19th, 2010
2:05 pm
Folks…you will want to tune into 680 am The Fan at 5:00 today.
Just sayin’….
The Smooth Spark
July 19th, 2010
2:05 pm
hip czech – wouldn’t that be nice? But shouldn’t you be pulling hard for Patrik Elias to come here over Zajac? He’s Czech, n’est ce-pas?
Good think Zach Parise’s last name isn’t Zajac…yikes! Hi, my name is Zach Zajac, and I like stuffing pucks into the crease! Call me!
J.B.
July 19th, 2010
2:10 pm
I KNEW THAT 500 ANNOUNCEMENT HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE THRASH!!!
Zoomo
July 19th, 2010
2:10 pm
Mike Smith reportedly going from Tampa in the Gagne deal.
Rawhide, doin the radio tease for Kincade?
hip czech
July 19th, 2010
2:10 pm
I would have no problem if Elias landed here. Clarkson would be OK too, but I think he just signed didn”t he. Devils only have 19 players under contract and Kovalchuk’s cap hit is probably going to put them close to 4 million over the limit.
I’ll go on record as saying the Kings win the cup before NJ does. Kings are a lot closer, and now they are not shackled by an albatross salary.
TableHockey
July 19th, 2010
2:13 pm
Actually Brendan – the rumors out there right now have Smith going as part of the trade. Guess they think Ellis is there man between the pipes…
WM
July 19th, 2010
2:14 pm
Big news this afternoon? 10 to 1 we’ve all been punk’d and Kovy will again be a Thrasher. Seriously though, anyone have an update on the contract talks with Opie?
The Smooth Spark
July 19th, 2010
2:14 pm
Watch (or listen) and see that 680 the Fan is simply announcing a two-year deal to broadcast Thrashers games. Why only 2 years? Because Gearon will sell the hockey team to Balsillie and Hamilton during the 2012-2013 lockout. Alas, Karma the Bitch resides here in A-town!
Zoomo
July 19th, 2010
2:16 pm
Geez… Burnside just tweeted that Kovy’s deal is 17 years @ 150 mil. !! yikes…if ture…in 2 years when they figure out that he can’t play D, that’s going to be some mess
Tom
July 19th, 2010
2:17 pm
Brandon, my point exactly. Tampa has finishers all through their line up. Gagne has some skills if he can stay healthy.
We are looking at a Tampa team that can score, a Washington team that can score (and they will have a chip on their shoulder too), Atlanta will be more defensively focused than in the past with but unless we get a sniper will struggle for goals, and Carolina and Florida who are rebuilding (or wallowing).
I see the Southeast with Washington having a big lead again and Tampa and Atlanta fighting it out for second. It will be bloody that is for sure.
Joe Friday
July 19th, 2010
2:18 pm
WBF, ready to admit you were wrong about Kovy?
For everyone that was dissing Grossman, you might want to re-think it. He got 100 cents on the dollar for his client, with a first class organ-I-zation. Just because it took longer than a day or two doesn’t mean Grossman screwed up, it actually means he did a heck of a job maximizing what he client received. He got him $100m.
As I’ve long said Sweet Lou is the 2nd best GM in the league, but I think the NHL is going to look hard at this contract. Spreading it out over 17 years is highly suspicious, if not outright ludicrous. NJ is going to pay him till he’s 44 and there’s no way he’s playing at 44, they just fit a superstar under the cap, and that’s playing with the intent of the cap. But if Sweet Lou manipulated it and found a loophole that he used to NJ’s advantage, then more power to him, and shame on the other GMs for not being bright enough to figure it out.
At the end of the day, I hope everyone learns not to listen to each twitter day in and day out, they were all wrong, except Larry Brooks who called 17 year $100m a while ago. Every single one of the rest of them were wrong (just like they are every trade deadline).
WM
July 19th, 2010
2:21 pm
The Smooth Spark-
That is of course if RIMM is still around in 2-3 years…
Joe Friday
July 19th, 2010
2:22 pm
“Burnside just tweeted that Kovy’s deal is 17 years @ 150 mil. !! yikes…if ture…in 2 years when they figure out that he can’t play D, that’s going to be some mess”
No way that is true, Sweet Lou is wiley, not senile
Joe Friday
July 19th, 2010
2:23 pm
Trixie!
Jeff97
July 19th, 2010
2:24 pm
17 years 150 Million!?!???!?!? NJ better hope the cap does not go down 10 million next season. I cant wait to see how it is structured and how it potentially handicaps NJ.
Why would you give that much to a one dimensional player? Kovy can only score. he does not play D, he does not hit anymore and sure as hell is not a leader.
Tom
July 19th, 2010
2:24 pm
Zoomo – Looks like Burnside is backing off that number “sorry. not quite that much. kovalchuk will have made in excess of 150 million by the time this deal is done including his time in atlanta.”
Zoomo
July 19th, 2010
2:28 pm
yes…Burnside recanted
Joe Friday
July 19th, 2010
2:28 pm
“sorry. not quite that much. kovalchuk will have made in excess of 150 million by the time this deal is done including his time in atlanta.”
Yep, there you go. But this brings up an interesting point. Is Kovy now the highest paid player in the history of the NHL? Doesn’t matter if he blows his knee out this year, those contracts are guaranteed . . .
ben
July 19th, 2010
2:34 pm
That number isn’t real. LAWDY, it would have to be a crazy man what did that! Nine and a front-loaded 90 is my guess. I wish our LeBron well. I now have a second-favorite team. God! I hope we get new investors.
TableHockey
July 19th, 2010
2:37 pm
Dunno Joe Friday – if it’s 17yr @ 100M they are going to regret that deal before it is even halfway over.
The Smooth Spark
July 19th, 2010
2:37 pm
Ovechkin got his $124 M 2 seasons before Kovy. Even if Kovy gets $100 M, Ovy is still richer having earned $11 M on his ELC, assuming that Ovechkin earned the majority of his bonuses. Kovy has earned $35.4 M so far, per Cap Geek, so it will be close I suppose.
Adam
July 19th, 2010
2:40 pm
If it’s the 100m/17yr deal that puts NJ 1.7m over the cap any other deal puts them even more over the cap. Lou still needs a body or 2 on the roster as well.
This puts 4 teams over the cap, 5 if you include Boston, with 2 of them in the Atlantic.
If the RFA’s sign the way we think they will it would put us right around 47.5 to 48.5 million, that’s with Cormier & Postma making the team.
If Dudley could pull off the Zajac for White a prospect & a pick that be one sweet deal.
Antro/Zajac/Bergy
Kane/Pevs/Little
Ladd/Cormier/Buff
Egar/Boults/Thorbs/Slats
The Smooth Spark
July 19th, 2010
2:43 pm
Report out of Philly: Done deal: defenseman Matt Walker and a 4th round pick come back for Simon Gagne.
Crikey! That’s all it took to get Gags for one year!! Sheesh.
glovesave29
July 19th, 2010
2:44 pm
Smoothie – no way Balsille EVER gets an NHL team. Not after what he tried to pull in Phoenix and get it through the back door instead of the established channels. Could the Thrash be moved…maybe – but I think the league wants to keep a market as large as Atlanta. They want to see what would happen if we are given a decent team to root for. If the Thrashers become competitive and go into the playoffs for a few years and there is no bump in attendance…then I can see the NHL lowering their guard and allowing other cities to come poaching.
Devils have 3 – 40 goal scorers. I think with MacLean coaching now and removing the defensive system instituted by Lemaire, Kovy can reach 100 points. The 2011-2012 season could be interesting if in fact the cap is lowered to $48M as it is being rumored…
The Smooth Spark
July 19th, 2010
2:49 pm
gs29 – I wasn’t being serious. While I certainly think the possibility exists that the team will get sold, I realize Basillie will be last on the list of preferred buyers. We should be fine at least until 2015 I think unless the “no-move” clause is 20 years and not 15.
Joe Friday
July 19th, 2010
2:49 pm
“if it’s 17yr @ 100M they are going to regret that deal before it is even halfway over.”
Why? You’re putting a 27 yr. old guy on your roster today for an under $6m per year cap hit (if the league lets this contract stand pat). That’s a huge win now for them for the first 6 years or so of the contract, a good deal for them for the middle 6 years of the contract (think time value of money and inflation), and a bad deal for them for the last 5 years, but the first 12 years of win far outweigh the final 5 years. What’s the clause in the cap about what happens if the guy retires? For example, Brindamour just retired with money left on his contract, does that hit Carolina’s cap next year or since Brindamour retired, do they not get the cap hit?
That’s where I smell a rat with this deal. If Grossman did a handshake deal with Sweet Lou where Kovy agrees to retire at 39 or something or when he stats go below x number and saves the cap hit when Kovy hits his early 40s, then that’s slimy, but again, if Sweet Lou figured out a way to do this, more power to him.
If Grossman also negotiated a NTC and got Kovy $100m, then he earned every penny of his commission and more over the past 18 days . . .
The Smooth Spark
July 19th, 2010
3:11 pm
JF – it’s not good for them if the deal is heavily front-loaded when it comes to time value of money. Good for Kovy & Grossman. However, should Kovy producde to the tune of 85 – 100 points for the first 6 years, then it’s probably worth the extra money up front.
Assuming the back-end is one of those declining balance deals like Hossa, then years 12 thru 17 are throw-aways. But they are paying a much higher price NOW than later so essentially they’ll still be paying $8.333 M or so in the first 12 years or so.
A cap hit of $5.88 is pretty good in terms of cap management, but the owner is taking a bigger hit in the first 5 years to make a deal like this work under the cap. Not to mention the bonuses he’ll likely get during a lockout if another one comes to fruition in 2012.
Flames
July 19th, 2010
3:12 pm
Lets see what happens now. UFA signings and trades are going to start. GM’s will be working their butts off now. I heard that Gagne is going to Tampa in a trade.
Brendan
July 19th, 2010
3:13 pm
http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=327880, last updated at 2:29 PM, at TSN.ca, reports the deal is at least $100 million over 17 years. That pays Kovalchuk until he’s 44. I think the league should investigate whether an ‘early retirement’ was discussed. If it’s $125 million over 17-years, then the cap hit is $7.35 million, roughly. It’s it’s $110 million, the cap hit is $6.47 million. If it’s just $103 million, then the cap hit is $6.05 million. I figured Lou would find a way to cheat the system. If the cap hit on Kovy is only $5.something or $6.something million, then he’s landed a top tiered play, as Chicago did with Hossa, for a fraction of what it ought to cost him, due to cap hits being “averaged out.” That practice should be halted by the league. Period, the end. Watch, the NY Islanders will offer John Tavares a 22-year deal, to get his cap hit down to something manageable. That’s insane. Something should be done to combat this. The players aren’t going to complain, because their contracts are essentially front-loaded, and the money’s guaranteed, unless they retire early. If Kovy held out for an “equal payment” for all 17 years, then that makes him very hard to trade, as he reaches 38, 39, 40, 41 and so forth years of age. Contracts like this need to be investigated. Or disallowed, period. Or, at least very least, if Kovy does retire early, at say 37, or 38, then the Devils must continue to get punished by cap hit for the contract they made, wayyyy back in 2010. The averaging out of a contract pressupposes that the contract will be played out. But if the deal is $110 million over only 14 actually played years, then the cap hit should be $7.8571, etc.
Okay, one last thought. I can forgive Kovy’s “indecision” when SEVENTEEN YEARS are involved. I wouldn’t want to hastily make a 17-year commitment to one location, and I don’t paid a fraction of what Kovy does. So, people should temper their anger and frustration accordingly. This decision couldn’t have been an easy one for Kovalchuk. Let me end on this. Franchises ebb and flow. Kovy cannot expect the Devils to be in the playoffs for the next 17 seasons. And once Brodeur hangs it up, it’s up to Lou to find suitable replacement. And if he can’t, or if the franchise is sold to new ownership, Kovy could find himself right back in another Octocluster mess in the swamps of Jersey. Who can see 17 years into the future??? Okay, Nostradamus could. I’ll grant ya that. But not Kovy. Not Jay Grossman. Not Lou Lamoriello. Not even the Devils’ ownership. Kovy has just made a substantive commitment. Let’s see if he honors it, and if he requests a trade, at some point. And, really, what has Kovalchuk demonstrably shown to the Devils? He iced one playoff game with an empty-netter. Wow.
World Be Free
July 19th, 2010
3:19 pm
Joe Friday-still blown away by this deal.
In my mind, I was looking for a sane deal, one that paid Kovy very well but also allowed his team enough $$$ to keep the team competitive. Most of the deals being thrown around the past few weeks have been in line with what I was saying Kovy would get. Now this one comes along; who can blame Kovalchuk for taking it.
So while may have been incorrect about how much this guy was going to make, I am glad that my team had nothing to do with this deal.
Smoothie- I am a huge Matt Walker fan. The kid is tough as nails, I think this is a good deal for both teams. Philly gets a young d-man that fits their mold, TB gets a talented winger with 1 year left on his deal.
Flames
July 19th, 2010
3:22 pm
Smoothie-Already reported that. Sorry!
Badger Bob
July 19th, 2010
3:22 pm
JF – Capgeek shows Brindamour as a $3.6M cap hit for Carolina next year. They did “buy out” his contract with his retirement, and that certainly saved them some coin, but that doesn’t avoid cap hit.
There may be buy out scenarios that Lou has in mind, but no matter what there’s some cap hit for many years.