Can Thrashers turn it back on in time?

To say that I was disappointed after Tuesday night’s massive, epic FAIL on the ice of Philips Arena would be quite the understatement. Bob and I…along with his guest and a “lurker”… for the most part of the final two periods just looked at each other without the adequate words to properly express ourselves.

And those words that we could come up with aren’t exactly fit to print here.

How many of the 18 possible points remaining will the Thrashers gain?

  • ZERO: A death march to Lotterypickville! (3%, 4 Votes)
  • 1 - 6: It'll be oh-so painful to watch (11%, 14 Votes)
  • 7-12: Win a few, lose a few - no playoffs (66%, 88 Votes)
  • 13-17: They'll finish strong and make the playoffs! (20%, 26 Votes)
  • ALL 18: That's right, you heard me...all 18 BAY-BEEEE! (0%, 1 Votes)

Total Voters: 133

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But with a new day and a new game comes the opportunity to put the failure of the past behind us and begin anew. But let’s not kid ourselves…at this stage of the game, Ws are a must. The season isn’t getting any younger, ya know.

With that, the Thrashers will host the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight..a game in which they will dress seven defensemen… and there are a couple other matchups to keep your eyes on as well. Up in Philly, the Flyers will host the Minnesota Wild and in Montreal the Canadiens will take on the Florida Panthers. Needless to say, as much as we are Thrashers fans, tonight we are also avid supporters of the Panthers and Wild.

A thought that doesn’t make me as ill to my stomach as being a Sabres fan last night…yeck

Regulation losses for the Flyers and Habs, combined with two points for the Thrashers would bring Atlanta to within one of Boston, two of Philly and three of Montreal. Of the trio of teams we are chasing, the Thrashers own head-to-head matchup tiebreak scenarios with Montreal and Philly.

However, as pointed out below, total wins would be the first tiebreaking scenario.

Oh, and let’s not forget the Rangers who after last night’s 5-0 blanking of the Islanders are but two behind the Thrashers, they play in New Jersey tonight…so, go Devils.

Again, steep road ahead…and I personally don’t see post-season happening, especially considering those five games that end the season. But first things first, I suppose. Leafs now…then a home and home against the Canes Saturday and Sunday before heading up to Toronto next week. Hopefully we can get some help as well in other games…Lord knows we’re gonna need it.

However, none of that matters unless the Thrashers can at least take care of their business …starting right now.

Rawhide Blog 2010 Comment of the Year Awards Vote

Be on the lookout just after the season ends for your chance to vote on this season’s Rawhide Blog Comment of the Year. As you’ve probably noticed, as the season has progressed, there have been a handful of comments posted which have already received nomination for the coveted prize…but there is still time to nominate others if you wish.

If there is a comment that you think merits COTYA consideration, simply let me know by linking to it in the comment section below. The comment must have been post on this blog and nominations must be posted before 5:00 pm April 9, 2010.

Nominations must be forwarded on behalf of others…not yourself. We’ll have none of that self-promoting, self-grandeurization stuff going on here. It doesn’t matter what position one may hold in this on-line forum, all participants will be given equal and fair opportunity to have their comments nominated.

Also, keep in mind that comments posted from an IP address further than 75 miles of Atlanta will indeed be deemed qualified for nomination and award.

I…along with considerable assistance from Trixie… will be the sole determining factor in which comments nominated will actually be given consideration. After all, I have the right to be here to decide such matters. Those chosen will join the four others who have been officially nominated already…World Be Free, B. Thenet, Brendan and Bob.

Then, in a few weeks…I will give you the opportunity to vote on those nominations to see who wins the COTYA.

Now, what is the grand prize? Well, after giving much thoughtful consideration to the matter…and realizing I am not allowed to give away anything of any cash value…I have decided that the winner of the 2010 Rawhide Comment of the Year will be allowed write a blog that I will post here in the future.

I know…I know…please govern your enthusiasm accordingly.

70 comments Add your comment

Badger Bob

March 25th, 2010
12:26 pm

13-17. While I posted last week what a relief it was to give up hope, I’m back in the optimist camp. More frustrating, but more fun.

World Be Free

March 25th, 2010
12:38 pm

Can we say a thank you to the Sabres for the comeback last night? Down 2-0 to the Habs, Buffalo scored 2 goals in the last minute and beat Montreal in a shootout, denying the Habs of 2 points, just 1.

Bill, can you get Cher to sing the turn back time song? Not sure can can wear the “V” outfit anymore.

World Be Free

March 25th, 2010
12:42 pm

Not sure if everyone saw this link posted on the previous blog-good read-

http://www.inlouwetrust.com/2010/3/20/1382324/ilya-kovalchuk-after-15-games-as-a

Kovy’s report card in NJ

Nikita

March 25th, 2010
12:46 pm

I’m in it to win it. Now, hopefully, the team is, too.

And just to put this in perspective, I consider myself a Rangers fan but I don’t care enough about them to get as emotionally involved in their successs as I do with the Thrashers. But I do work with some people who are very invested, and I got an email from one of them yesterday that looked more or less like the blog posts that I was seeing here a few weeks ago during the cold streak. My point is: it could be worse.

Badger Bob

March 25th, 2010
12:51 pm

Great read, WBF! Seems like a realistic assessment but, I dare say, it’s on the optimistic/apologetic side. I’m sure the Sage of Newark would not approve.

Will you be at the game tonight, WBF?

World Be Free

March 25th, 2010
12:53 pm

Sorry dude, can’t make tonight’s game but we’ll meet Monday.

Bob

March 25th, 2010
12:55 pm

“I have decided that the winner of the 2010 Rawhide Comment of the Year will be allowed write a blog that I will post here in the future.”

Nice!

7-12 pts (and they’ll be hard pressed to do better than 7 or 8).

Attendance tonight? 7 or 8k?

R. Stroz

March 25th, 2010
12:58 pm

I’ll be there tonight in Section 222, and I’m going to make some noise.

Smoothie

March 25th, 2010
1:03 pm

12 points. That is the target.

Plus, I don’t see how they can win more than 12 out of 18 points consdering their brutal April sked. If they do in fact manage to go 6 – 3 or 5 – 2 – 2, then this is what the other 3 teams would have to do in the race to 87 points.

Montreal (8 gms left): 3 – 4 – 1 (7 pts)…lose H2H tiebreaker with ATL
Philly (9 gms left): 3 – 4 – 2 (8 pts)…also lose H2H tiebreak w/ ATL
Boston (10 gms left): 4 – 6 – 0 (8 pts for 86)…if they get to 87, they will win the tie-break with ATL, of course.

What are the probabilities of these events occuring? I have no idea, but probably in the realm of 10-20%. Not impossible, but without 6 or 7 of the next 8 points, we are doomed. Period. End of story. Sianorah.

Midfield

March 25th, 2010
1:07 pm

I kinda have a hunch that Anderson is facing the abyss right now – no pressure whatsoever, by the way, John. In retrospect, Thrashers only had a handful of coaches in their rich history; Curt Frasier – not an NHL material by any stretch, Bob Hartley – made the team respectable in many ways, but had a real hard time adjusting to post-lockup rule changes, Don Waddell – did nothing but loosen the players up and failed to stop the run-away loosening (I’m pretty sure I could do that too, but faster), John Anderson – started the never-ending quest of teaching the players his Magical Mystery system (the learning curve keeps curving away due to routine personnel turn-over).

Rawhide

March 25th, 2010
1:11 pm

Can we say a thank you to the Sabres for the comeback last night? Down 2-0 to the Habs, Buffalo scored 2 goals in the last minute and beat Montreal in a shootout, denying the Habs of 2 points, just 1.

WBF – Yes…it was good to see the Sabres come back and win that one last night….ew, I just ‘vurped’ again.

Badger Bob

March 25th, 2010
1:17 pm

Not to further darken the possibilities, Smoothie, but number of wins is the first tie breaker, then H2H record, so we’re certain to lose a tie-breaker with Philly. With Montreal, they’d need to go 2-3-3 for us to win the tie breaker. Definitely need 6 or 7 of next 8… starting with 2 tonight!

Here’s a good site for those of you who like the Magic Number thing: http://bleacherreport.com/tb/b3pK7

J(Z)

March 25th, 2010
1:21 pm

The tiebreaker is total number of wins, not H2H – so because we have more OTL’s than the rest of these teams…we’re screwed with any tiebreakers other than possibly Boston how has 12 OTL’s to our 11.

J(Z)

March 25th, 2010
1:21 pm

Or….what HE said

Rawhide

March 25th, 2010
1:25 pm

Badger Bob & J(Z) – Point taken regarding tiebreakers…but if, for some odd quirk, the Thrashers wind up with the exact same record as another team, then doesn’t the H2H come into play?

Red Light

March 25th, 2010
1:38 pm

Tie-Breaking procedure
* The greater number of games won.

* The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any “odd” games, shall be used to determine the standing.

* The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season.

jimbo

March 25th, 2010
1:47 pm

C’mon guys isn’t there an end to the number of calls that the governor makes to save the condemned. Someone pointed out that of our four coaches (counting Teflon Don) that we really have had only one NHL calibre coach- Bob Hartley. I second that. His teams often lacking in talent were disciplined. And, if you didn’t hustle, you sat. I’ll be in section 109 tonight looking to bolt early on if we once again start to fold.

Russ

March 25th, 2010
1:50 pm

Rawhide – I don’t know if anyone already mentioned it, but I believe the Bruins play the Lightning tonight – another one to keep an eye on.

I am projecting the point total to get in a little higher than some of you. I am guessing the eventual eighth seed will have 89 or 90 points, which would mean the Thrashers would need 14-15 out of the remaining 18 possible points. That’s a tall order, but hopefully it all starts with 2 tonight. GO THRASHERS!!!

Brendan

March 25th, 2010
1:52 pm

Rawhide, I see ten (10) points out of the remaining possible 18. That’s an abover .500 record, the rest of the way. And that’s saying something, given that we have the Capitals twice, the Penguins twice, the ‘Canes twice, and New Jersey. The only “softie” is Toronto, who … let’s face it … is playing pretty well lately. They’re something like 7-2-1 in their last 10 games.

To me, I saw that 1-7-4 stretch of season as the moment when we lost the playoff berth. Then, there was an 0-4-1 stretch, post trade deadline, that just made the likelihood of playoffs so diminished. That said, I hold out hope … for a playoff berth this season. As a fan, it’s my job to root for the best.

Brendan

March 25th, 2010
1:56 pm

WBF, I saw that game. And holy Wowza, what a comeback by Buffalo. Montreal play over 58 quality minutes of play, and couldn’t hold a 2-0 lead. Amazing.

Russ

March 25th, 2010
2:01 pm

I didn’t see the poll above and thought people were projecting what it would take to get into the playoffs. I think the Thrashers will get 7 more points. I projected 82 at the beginning of the season and I’m sticking with it, dammit!

Smoothie

March 25th, 2010
2:03 pm

Oh yeah, forgot about the other tie-breaker that trumps H2H…damn.

Well, I still think 87 points will get somebody in. May not be the Thrashers though due to their sheer number of OTL. 6 – 2 – 1 would be ideal, but not realistic. I think 6 – 3 is realistic, but that would mean one win over Pit, one over Wsh (on the road no less) and one over NJ at home. Odds are we go 4 – 5 or 3 – 5 – 1 so we’ll end up missing due to our long losing streaks in which we earned 3 out of 18 pts and 1 out of 12 points, respectively.

Red Light

March 25th, 2010
2:10 pm

Toronto OTL
Carolina L
Carolina W
Toronto W
Washington W
Pittsburgh L
NJ OTL
Washington L
Pittsburgh W

4-3-2 10 points for a total of 85, as posted earlier this year.

Boston 87
Philly 85
Thrashers 85
Rangers 84

They tie with Philadelphia for 8th and lose the tiebreaker because Philly has more wins, and thereby are not in the lottery escapade.

The club selected in the lottery drawing may not move up more than four positions in the draft order, thus only the five clubs with the fewest regular-season points have the opportunity to select first overall.

Not Blind

March 25th, 2010
2:14 pm

Even if the teams ahead and behind lose enough to let the Thrashers make the playoffs all you will get to watch is 4 games like the one against Boston.

World Be Free

March 25th, 2010
2:16 pm

Brendan/Rawhide-I turned the Sabres’ game off with 4 minutes to go thinking it was over.

Also, GREAT game between Washington and Pittsburgh. I remember a few years ago, getting some rinkside seats with a week to go in the season in a game between Washington and Atlanta. Neither team was close to the playoffs. Kovy was invisable that might, while Ovechkin was all over the ice hitting everything in sight. Now look where both teams are; gotta worry about Washington’s goaltending though, just like Chicago.

Savannah Blueland Fan

March 25th, 2010
2:17 pm

When I see World Be Free’s name shortened to WBF, I think of the drinking game I play at home whenever yet another French-Canadian referee slaps us with a questionable call and the SportsSouth camera flashes to John Anderson………..only he don’t B happy; he B T’d!

World Be Free

March 25th, 2010
2:41 pm

Savannah, Anderson’s is WTF while I am WBF.

But I have been called worse…….several times today, in fact.

Savannah Blueland Fan

March 25th, 2010
2:50 pm

Exactly! WTF! Every time I see Anderson screaming it, down goes a shot of tequila.

R. Stroz

March 25th, 2010
3:02 pm

Has anyone else ever noticed the following?

1) Anderson looks confused and doesn’t seem to communicate with the players on the bench.

2) Cunny talks to the players and seems to be offering advice.

Draw your own conclusions.

somaatl95

March 25th, 2010
3:03 pm

JT from Columbus

March 25th, 2010
3:10 pm

Although last game was big, tonight is THE biggest game of the year. We HAVE to get and stay at least 1 pt out. Any other scenario, it’s lights out.

Badger Bob

March 25th, 2010
3:31 pm

Finally some love from the folks at The Hockey News – Thrash makes the top mascot list!

http://bleacherreport.com/tb/b3r4V

Tom Lysiak

March 25th, 2010
3:39 pm

Bob and Red Light, I read your posts on the previous blog and wanted to respond in general. I have done my share of making fun of the “boycott” and its results for obvious reasons. Like others, I get sick of some blowhard insulting people who choose to go to a game. I view that like you did Bob when you said calling you out as not being a fan is going to come back to someone. Same thing here. You choose not to go spend your money, I (and many others here) could give a $#!^. I respect your choice. It is not respect to call people “sheep” and sophomoric names like that. It is not respect to attempt to humiliate people by saying they are responsible for the situation because they are in your minds “subsidizing the incompetence”. Bob, I have respect for your position, even though I disagree, because you say you have no problems with people exercising their right to go watch hockey. Sage doesn’t extend that same respect. He calls people names and tries to insult them, all the while thinking he is winning converts to his cause. Nobody is intimidated by such ignorance. He has the same chance of intimidating me as Colby has of scoring on a penalty shot, none. Some may have followed him, and that is their choice, but obviously most have not. His crusade has gone on for years and the results speak for themselves. A few ticket reps got canned when STH’s started bailing. BFD. The owners are not listening to all our cries to fire Waddell. You’d think after 8+ years that someone would realize it will only happen when the ASG thinks it is time. We all want a new GM (a competent one). Some want a new coach. The point is, demeaning other fans for not agreeing with your position is stupid and pointless. Feel the way you want to feel and own it. But don’t demean someone else and their decision because you think just one more convert will tip the scales in your favor. Hasn’t happened yet, ain’t going to either.

We’re all hockey fans here. Each fan has the ability and right to make their own choice on attending games. You want to call ASG and Waddell names here, fine with me. You want to rail about the damage Waddell has done to this team and its fans, fine also. But calling fans names and trying to assert false superiority will get the response it deserves.

I’m in 111 tonight. Watching a hockey game and taking a break from the real world for 2 1/2 hours. To do that, I don’t need anyone’s approval or permission. To stay away, you don’t need mine. What a concept.

Badger Bob

March 25th, 2010
3:43 pm

Amen, Mr. Lysiak.

And to complete your pre-game media mash, a CNN report on Chelli:

http://www.cnn.com/2010/LIVING/worklife/03/25/nhl.old.man.chelios/index.html?hpt=C2

J(Z)

March 25th, 2010
3:59 pm

I think optimistically we can get to 5-2-2 in our last 9, which is 12 points

W – TOR
W – @CAR
OTL – CAR
W – @TOR
L – @WSH
L – @PIT
W – NJ
OTL – @WSH
W – PIT

Here’s Philly’s schedule, I can see 3-4-2 (8pts)
OTL – MIN
L – @PIT
L – NJ
W – @NYI
L – MTL
L – DET
W – @TOR
OTL – @NYR
W – NYR

And all that leaves us both with 87 points and gives Philly the tiebreaker…ughhh

Bob

March 25th, 2010
4:19 pm

“I respect your choice.”

Yep. Totally agree. I have no problem with you guys going, I was just being Devil’s Advocate with Red Light to say don’t attack fans that left for not being fans or that could come back at ya. I think there’s enough of us by now that did bail to get their attention and I’m hopeful that we get the meaningful change we need this April (when it’s rumored that Waddell’s contract is up–my pipedream is that just like they were too cheap to pay two coaches and made Waddell coach that year, that they didn’t want to have to pay two GMs but will be free to make a move now if his contract really is up). But I don’t begrudge anyone else from going or think less of the 378 of you left that still go ;) , I find it admirable in fact. I’m just done with it till true change is made for the better.

Sage has been here forever and he has his style, at least it’s consistent. I don’t agree with it constantly and it does get old seeing the same old thing over and over and over but, but I think you guys should let is roll off your back and skip by it and have the courage of your convictions. Only thing I’d ask is that you at least keep making your voices be heard in demanding positive change (not applauding Waddell at the Town Halls for his “performance” or lack thereof–that would be enabling the Futility).

Badger Bob

March 25th, 2010
4:35 pm

J(Z) – that’s a realistic/optimistic projection, so I don’t like our chances. But a more serious collapse by Philly is possible, so I certainly want to see us do our part. What would REALLY suck is for us AND Philly to tank and let the Rangers, Panthers or, gasp, the Lightning in with 85 points. Go Thrash! See you all soon!

World Be Free

March 25th, 2010
4:54 pm

Stroz, I said a few months ago that I believed Cunneyworth would be an NHL coach someday. He was a great leader as a player, developed most of the players on the Sabres’ roster, some in FLA too.

He is destined to be an NHL coach; here perhaps?

J(Z)

March 25th, 2010
5:02 pm

Versus has added the Thrashers @ Craps game on April 1. Our one and only nationally televised game and it’s not until April and against the Craps…ughhhhh

Red Light

March 25th, 2010
5:34 pm

Tom Lysiak’s signed jersey is in my closet, so I have to respect your opinion!

Brendan

March 25th, 2010
6:36 pm

I made the nomination for B.Thenet’s awesome post (many blogs back). I hope it wins!

Brendan

March 25th, 2010
9:56 pm

Ranallo warning? Seeing none. Okay, I missed this entire game. I had to work late. By the time I got home, it was over. I cannot comment on it, other than to say … one (1) goal against Toronto, at this time of year, is unacceptable. On the flip side, Ondrej Pavelec must have played well to only give up one in regulation time. Those who saw it, describe this one for me. Did we ‘not show up’ for puck drop again? Did the Leafs play well? Who was in net for the Leafs?

Obviously, I’m disappointed by the result. Florida has just score to cut Montreal’s lead to 2-1, with 1:40 left. Hold up, empty-netter for Montreal. Philly lost, 4-3, to Minnesota, in overtime. That’s relatively good for us. The NY Rangers just beat the Devils, 4-3, in the shootout. Carolina beat Washington, 3-2, in the shootout. I believe the Capitals clinched the Eastern Conference with the point, if they hadn’t already clinched it.

There’s still a game worth seeing tonight. It’s 3-1, Nashville, over Phoenix, in the 3rd period. Channel # 782 on Comcast’s Center Ice. This is another “litmus test” game for the Coyotes.

So, those who went or saw it, who dominated, Toronto or Atlanta?

Russian

March 25th, 2010
9:56 pm

I though we could get 2 points today. Anderson is IDIOT. Why did he dress 7 dmen? Team COULD NOT SCORE. We do need 7 Def’s. This is simple rule of hockey. If team stay below you have to win or you are out of PLAY OFFS. What’s horrible game again. :-(

Russian

March 25th, 2010
9:58 pm

TORONTO played better. We had a Lucky, because Toronto got a post 4-5 times. Score should be 4:1 Toronto.

Brendan

March 25th, 2010
10:18 pm

Russian, thank you for that update. I have just seen the “On The Fly” highlights, and did take note of no less than 4 hit goalposts by Toronto, who outshot us, 30-20. Think about that. Atlanta, in its own building, is outshot by ten. The good news is Pavelec made 28 saves. That’s encouraging.

Here’s your boxscore. Notice how Kubina, who didn’t gain position on his man in OT, resulting in the GWG, was a -2 for this game. Toby Enstrom was also a -2. http://www.nhl.com/ice/boxscore.htm?id=2009021101.

Oh well. A point is better than nothing, especially since TB enigmatically went into Boston and won in regulation time, 5-3. With the Flyer loss in OT, Atlanta keeps pace with them. The NY Rangers, unfortunately, got a win in a shootout over New Jersey. And yes, Ilya Kovalchuk did score, his 39th of the season. By the way, Steven Stamkos now has 45 goals. The might tie him with Ovechkin and Crosby, for the Rocket Richard Goals Scoring Trophy race. Good for him. That’s called “living up to your hype.” Stamkos was the 1st overall pick of the 2008, from the Sarnia Sting.

Brendan

March 25th, 2010
10:39 pm

Here are your updated standings. http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?type=con#&navid=nav-stn-conf. Man, what a win would have done? Carolina has caught Florida for 4th place in the SE division. Carolina is also the #27, with Florida #26, I believe. So? So if the ‘Canes keep winning, they’ll miss out on the lottery draft. I don’t think Carolina has been mathematically eliminated, but they have no chance. So, maybe it’s time for them to try to make it look like they’re not gonna “lie down” for us? It’s up to Atlanta to take the points from Carolina. Carolina won’t just hand them to us, I wouldn’t think.

R. Stroz

March 25th, 2010
10:56 pm

If you haven’t watched the game, DON’T.

The Thrashers were outplayed, outworked, and outscored. The score could have easily been 6 to 1 if not for the goalposts.

This is what I would like to know, if the Thrashers method to get around a gummed up neutral zone is to pass the puck backwards, how are the Thrashers going to score?

Badger Bob

March 25th, 2010
11:00 pm

If the teams wore jerseys without logos and you had to guess which one was hungry for their shot at the playoffs, you’d have guessed wrong. We’re back to looking like a pre-season unit that hasn’t figured out where our teammates are going to be.

Brendan, you want to know what happened? Watch LIttle’s effort on getting to the puck as it comes off the boards in overtime. Multiply that by 50 ocassions where a little more hustle or desperation would have won a battle, and you have the game in a nutshell. Toby earned his -2, with a brutal decision on the Leafs first goal. No excuse for this failure.

Amazingly little changes on our mathematical chances. We needed 64% of things to go right to pass Boston or Philly going in to the night, and now about 67% (i.e., we need 2/3 of our points, and Boston or Philly to get only 1/3 of their points). But that’s just the cold math. Fact is, two more efforts like Tuesday or Thursday and its all over.

Good chatting with you, Redlight. I climbed up to 317 to find you, Smoothie, but only saw Bogo, Hossa and Kovy jerseys by your seats. Next time, perhaps.

MB

March 25th, 2010
11:11 pm

First off, thanks to poster Jason for the link to the ticket deal…and yes, Jason, we did purchase several tickets for the 50/50 raffle (benefiting Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta) in appreciation.

And that was pretty much the highlight of the game.

Other than that, a few thousand people saw two bad teams playing bad hockey. Sorry, but that’s what I saw on the ice. Pavs looked a little shaky to me at first, but ended up playing a nice game (though he apparently has learned little from Moose re: puck handling). They gave Slater the third star of the game…not sure why.

A completely uninspiring night of (supposedly) NHL hockey.

Tears for Beers

March 25th, 2010
11:12 pm

They looked sloppy. They looked like they didn’t care.

They looked like they were playing for a paycheck, not a playoff spot.