Glass ‘half full’ or ‘half empty’ road trip?
First of all…I’m working this morning from an office that resembles an over-stocked flower shop. All of you people that sent Valentines Day roses to Trixie…just thanks. I’m not going to get any work out of her at all for the next several days as she reads all of the cards attached to them. Plus, since she absolutely loves getting flowers, she is just beside herself if happiness and bliss…and work has taken a backseat.
So just thanks…thanks a pant load!
sigh…
Well, at least she is letting me have some of the chocolate.
Anyway…the Thrashers return from their three game road trip with a record of 1-0-2, gaining four out of a possible six points. Anytime you can net 2/3 of the points available, you’re doing well. But at this juncture in the season, a team that considers themselves as a playoff contender has to find a way to get that extra point from games that made it to overtime…which was the case in two of the three games.
Making things just a little more frustrating is the fact that both OT losses came after the Thrashers surrendered third period leads. Wednesday night in Colorado Atlanta relinquished a two-goal advantage with less than nine minutes left to play in the third…then saw the Avs skate away with the extra point after only 9 seconds worth of overtime has elapsed. Then last night in Chicago, after turning a 3-1 first period deficit into a 4-3 second period lead, the Thrashers let another one slip away, this time in the shootout.
Two points left on the table…albeit from two very good teams. But if you look at the standings this morning, that is exactly the amount of points separating this team from the eighth and final playoff spot.
Of course, that’s the “glass half empty” side of this discussion…what about the “glass half full” side?
Jim Slater gets his Valentines Day hug from Kim Johnsson Saturday night (AP Photo/John Smierciak)
We, if you consider we were playing three Western Conference teams, one of which is the second seed out west and the other is currently tied with Vancouver for first in the Northwest Division, the fact that the Thrashers played them all as well as they did has to be an encouraging sight indeed.
I mean, show of hands…how many out there last Tuesday would have seen four out of six points this week as a good thing considering the opposition? Uh-huh…yeah, me too.
And given that the overtime games were played out west, none of the points surrendered in OT gave anything to teams the Thrashers are battling with back east…so 1-0-2 is really no different than 2-1-0. It’s still four points in the standings.
Another promising sign here is that the team is getting balanced scoring across the lines from players that do need to step up in the post-Kovalchuk era.
In the five games since the trade, Nik Antropov has 2 goals, 6 assists and is a +1, (+3 since the loss to Washington)…Evander Kane has 3 goals, an assists and is a +2…Bryan Little has 2 goals, 2 assists and is a +2…Toby Enstrom has 2 goals and an assist…Maxim Afinogenov has two goals…Rich Peverley has a goal and an assists…and Jimmy Slater scored last night in Chicago and is a +1 since the Thrashers began life A.K. Slates, along with Kane, was a +2 versus the Blackhawks.
What's your view of the Thrashers right now?
- Glass half full (92%, 167 Votes)
- Glass half empty (8%, 14 Votes)
Total Voters: 181
Loading ...Then there are the contributions from Niclas Bergfors…3 goals, two of them game winners, an assists on 18 SOG and he’s a +2.
As a team, the Thrashers have continued to score goals at a better than 3-per game clip…notching a total of 16 in the last five games plus 5:09 worth of overtime play. As you can see, the goals are still coming from this squad, which is a very encouraging sign indeed.
So, given the way this team has responded since the Kovalchuk trade, going into the Olympic break…going 2-1-2 in the five games played in that stretch, do you have a “glass half full” or a “glass half empty” view of this team.
Me…I’m of the “glass half full” opinion…but not as full as the glass vases containing all the roses on Trixie’s desk. That’s just out of control.
Next year guys, just send the chocolate…OK?
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137 comments Add your comment
World Be Free
February 15th, 2010
11:07 am
Smoothie-can’t figure out why a newspaper in top 10 can’t get sportswriters that know their stuff. We are forgetting about Terrance here too!
Brendan
February 15th, 2010
11:09 am
Smoothie, I think you sussed that out, well. I’m not sure when, however, that the 2010-11 cap figures will be announced. I’m thinking June 25th-ish.
R. Stroz
February 15th, 2010
11:27 am
I’m going to play devil’s advocate, I wouldn’t re-sign Kubina unless he’s willing to take a pay cut..
Yes, this is a somewhat of a change from my stance early in the season.
The reasons, Kubina is smart, but not fleet of foot, and as we have seen previously, the 30 something guys sure can lose alot of mojo between seasons (think Zhitnik & White).
So unless, Kubina is willing to take 3.5/year over three seasons, I’m all for bringing up prospects.
Nikita
February 15th, 2010
11:30 am
re: Colby Armstrong, you’re right that he only signed a relatively short deal. Keep in mind, though, where the team was when it was signed and also that we didn’t pay Colby what he thought he deserved. I can see, from his perspective, why he wouldn’t do any more than contractually necessary. But that was a year ago. Meanwhile he’s played well, he’s about to be able for the first time to actually test the market instead of just going forward on captive rights, and I can’t see any reason why he wouldn’t agree to a fair deal.
*Colby signed a one-year deal.*
True. But if you couldn’t get what you wanted, and couldn’t get out, then why would you lock yourself into a longer-term commitment to the same situation that you weren’t happy about in the first place?
*How are Brian Campbell, Manny Malhotra, Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk doing with the Thrashers this year? I have to ask, since Bruce Levenson went on record as saying, “I think we know how to sign free agents.”*
You know, Hosebag is probably the best correlation to Colby. He got traded here, and played reasonably well and loyally as long as he was 100% happy. But he wasn’t happy with a lot of things. He wasn’t happy with Ilya Kovalchuk, which means he’d never be happy with the team in a city that built the team around IK, and he never agreed to come here anyway. So obviously when he became eligible to leave, he did.
Colby is a little different, but he also didn’t agree to come here. He says, though, that he’s happy with the team. He’s happy with Atlanta. His wife likes it here. What he wasn’t happy with, last year, was his compensation and ice time. So…I suppose he could still be annoyed. Maybe he’d rather be somewhere where his mama doesn’t have to ship him Jos. Frasiers. (Or whatever they’re called.) But it doesn’t sound like it. So I hope we can keep him. Let’s make him an offer worth taking.
Smoothie
February 15th, 2010
11:41 am
Here’s the problem with that Stroz (and I would tend to agree with your point if not for the following): when you look at the list of upcoming UFA D-men this summer in the $3.5 – $4.5 M range, there isn’t a lot of quality or youth (i.e. 27 or 28 y/o). To wit:
Paul Martin – $3.833 M…no chance in hell
Rob Blake – $3.5 M…38 y/o
Brett Clark – $3.5 M…34 y/o
Willie Mitchell – $3.5 M…34 y/o
Mike Rathje – $3.5 M, oft-injured 37 y/o
Marek Zidlicky – $3.35 M…34 y/o (good alternative for our system)
Derek Morris – $3.3 M…*only* 32 y/o (see why I wanted him in a trade?)
Adam Foote – $3.0 M…39 y/o
Andy Sutton – $3.0 M…36 y/o (wow, can’t believe he’s that old)
Toni Lydman – $2.875 M…33 y/o (might be a good alternate target)
Joe Corvo – $2.625 M…34 y/o
Anton Volchenkov – $2.5 M…29 y/o (I freakin’ wish!)
Luckily, the dearth of late twenty-somethings in the upper echelon of “top” free agents may in fact help our cause with Pavel. However, how many of the top FA have had as good a year as Kubina? Gonchar, Clark and Zidlicky?? Not sure and I’d have to check the stats.
But my point is that Kubina may still be highly coveted despite his age. Up above in my “max pay” scenario, I was actually thinking Kubina was still 32 for some reason. The fact that he’s 34 should help discount him down from the $5.0 M he makes now, but considering the 3 highest paid FA D-men this year are Lidstrom (41), Niedermayer (37) and Gonchar (37), we may be hard-pressed to get him for less than $4.75 M.
World Be Free
February 15th, 2010
11:59 am
Gotta keep Kubina, he has fit here like a glove. He has veteran smarts.
Smoothie-agree with most of your numbers, but I see Jimmy looking for a raise above $1M.
Smoothie-I believe Rathje is retired, Foote and Sutton should be too.
R. Stroz
February 15th, 2010
12:04 pm
Sutton is retired, but he doesn’t know it yet.
Smoothie – Good analysis, but aging players scare the heck out of me.
We can always hope Kubina likes nice weather, good golfing, and living in peace.
Brendan
February 15th, 2010
12:06 pm
I’d like Lydman, Smoothie.
Nikita, I see your point, re: Colby’s salary demands. If he’s displeased with his compensation, then he’ll get the chance to test the waters that determine his value. He might find, however, that he isn’t worth nearly what he thinks he is. Or maybe, it’s not really about the money, at all. It’s about playing where he likes it, provided that city’s team wants him, too. We shall see. But if Colby wants out, I think Atlanta should move him, rather than force him to stay to the conclusion of the season.
Smoothie
February 15th, 2010
12:07 pm
Did Rathje finally quit? He’s still “on the books” as a LTIR for Philly. Might as well be retired. LOL on Sutton and Foote. I reckon Niedermayer may contemplate retirmement but he’s still 8th in scoring by a D-man. Guess who’s ahead of him in 6th? That’s right, diminutive, but reliable Swede, Toby Enstrom! His 42 points rank him behind only the following: Green, Keith, Kaberle, Doughty & Boyle. Pronger has 42 points as well. That pro-active contract worth $3.75 M / year is looking quite brilliant now isn’t it? Donnie has his moments.
World Be Free
February 15th, 2010
12:08 pm
I really believe Colby Armstrong holds the key to the immediate future of this team.
Armstrong is a young player that is in demand. I am sure a number of teams will be calling Don between now and March 3rd. If we chose to retain Army after the trading deadline, then there will be a larger number of teams aiming for him July 1.
Army can do one of 2 things 1) ask to be moved or move July 1 2) sign a long term deal and commit to staying in Atlanta. His commitment would send a signal, a preference of a young player to stay in Atlanta over the possibility of going to greener pastures. Making such a commitment will make it a lot easier for management to convince other UFAs that Atlanta can be a preferred destination. You won’t build a winner until this happens.
Brendan
February 15th, 2010
12:09 pm
WBF, I think Kubina has his eyes cast elsewhere, though. When acquired, I think all parties concerned knew it was a 1-year trail balloon. Now, if Kubina wants to stay, let’s negotiate. But, I don’t want him beyond two more seasons, due to age.
Brendan
February 15th, 2010
12:12 pm
I’d like to keep Colby, too. But I don’t think the future of the team hinges on him. He’s a 3rd line player, who *might* be able to play top six forward minutes. But we’ll know … when we talk to him. Make no mistake, Colby holds the cards. He’s the pending UFA. The ball is in his court. If he wants to be retained, on the terms he wants, he merely has to speak up.
R. Stroz
February 15th, 2010
12:17 pm
REASONABLE RETENTION IS THE KEY!
Otherwise we’re back to:
IT’S THE ORGANIZATION STUPID (a political slogan derivative)
World Be Free
February 15th, 2010
12:18 pm
Brendan, I am not sure Kubina is going to do better than what the Thrashers will offer. I believe the relationship has been good for both parties.
Colby-time to see what management is made of, regardless of what may have happened in the past. I really think retaining Army is crucial to our future.
Koach
February 15th, 2010
12:27 pm
Defense and goalie are the keys right now and if we make the right moves we can make the playoffs and set up for a solid future. Ondrej’s style reminds me of Dominik Hasek AND HE’S NO HASEK. Sitting too low and flopping won’t work in the playoffs. Ride Moose as long as we can. He’s up to it and the team plays harder every time he’s in there.
Kulda needs to come back and worked into a more prominent role – and I think they’ll do just that. He got beat in the open ice a bit trying to play up to the speed but it’s very clear that he knows how to move his feet and take the body in tight in his own zone which has often been severely lacking (but not as much as year’s past thank God). Kubina is solid and has the toughness and experience he needs to stay, please!
Hainsey plays hard every night and plays like he cares. i like the guy a lot but sometimes I think he’s trying too hard to be the number one defender. Hopefully the others pick up their game – especially Bogo who still needs to sit out a couple – and Hainsey settles down a bit.
All in all, the glass is definitely half full and they’re fun to watch, way more fun than screaming at the TV for Kovy to skate the hell back on D!!!
Smitty
February 15th, 2010
12:40 pm
I would like to see Colby resigned bfore the trade deadline. It will send a positive signal to the team and to the fans. Too bad the hit on Hossa did not happen here.
Smoothie
February 15th, 2010
12:41 pm
As for Colby Armstrong, he may end up getting what he wants in FA simply because there is such a dearth of quality RW (plus he can play LW as well) as well as young (27 or 28 y/o) guys available this summer. Trying to make a “top 10″ list is quite the exercise in futility.
Here’s the market for Colby Armstrongs (keep in mind this is my subjective ranking based on their relative worth):
1) Afinogenov – yeah, Mad Max at the top of the list w/ 46 pts ($800K!)
2) Stempniak(28) – *seems* like great value at $3.5 M, but only 29 pts
3) Nolan, O. – 14 G & 28 pts puts this 39 y/o close to the top ($2.75)
4) Armstrong – suddenly, his “down” year doesn’t look so bad ($2.4)
5) Demitra – if healthy, may still be able to pot 20 G, but at $4 M??
6) Svatos – needs a change of scenery from COL, but not at $2.35 M
7) Pisani – could be good grinding checking line guy at a fair $ ($2.5)
8.) Sykora – can he get healthy and score 15-20 G next year? ($1.6M)
9) Satan – what does 3 G in 18 games get you at 36 y/o ($700K)
10) Donovan – who would’ve thunk he’d be 10th on this list?? ($650K)
Need I say more? We’re not gonna get Colby at a discount I’m afraid. Let him walk unless he says he will take the same money for 2 years. Looking at this, we’d be foolish not to re-up Max for $3.0 M / year.
Contingency for letting Colby & Max walk: Ponikarovsky to play LW and Raffi Torres to replace Colby on the checking line. Kane moves to RW and you have the following roster:
Poni – Little – Antro
Bergie – Pevs – Kaner
Torres – Slates – Machacek
White / Boults – Reasy – Crabb
This makes not re-signing Afinogenov seem a bit risky. Who woulda thought that at the beginning of the year. Even with a -10 or -15, his 50-60 point potential may be too good to pass up. Especially if Frolov is unobtainable and we can’t get our hands on Ponikarovsky. The LW FA situation ain’t much better so might be best to get Max back and leave Kane developing at LW — Kane – Pevs – Max as a 2nd line?
World Be Free
February 15th, 2010
12:59 pm
Smitty-loved the check and you are right, that would have brought the house down in ATL!
R. Stroz
February 15th, 2010
1:08 pm
My guess is White will be “bought out” this summer.
World Be Free
February 15th, 2010
1:17 pm
Stroz-on White
If so, I hope he makes a “soft” landing somewhere!
Smoothie
February 15th, 2010
1:18 pm
Zhitnik finally comes off the books Stroz so a Charmin Buy-Out might be a good possibility. Cap hit gets spread over 3 years? Pay him half and say “get the hell outta here!” Over 3 years, the cap hit (if I’m remembering correctly) would be $791,667.
Did anyone notice that David Stearn says the NBA has losses approaching $400 M this season?? They’re next round of CBA negotiations stand to turn ugly I’m afraid and a lockout looks like a very good possibility.
Alas! That might be good for the Thrashers. At least for a year or two.
Lee
February 15th, 2010
1:44 pm
Hey what channel is the Winter Olympic Hockey on?
Bob
February 15th, 2010
2:10 pm
Colby isn’t re-signing here, the one year deal last summer was all you needed to know. I’m quite sure the Penguins have plans to bring him back into the fold this summer and I’m sure he’d love to go back. but there’s no way he’s re-signing here. I loved his hit on Hossa, btw.
Kubina would definitely be worth keeping, but we’re hamstrung with Hainsey’s deal and we have to keep Bogosian’s raise that’s coming in mind. Any long term deal with Kubina at more than $4m or so just isn’t feasible for this club.
I loved the 4 pts the guys got out of that trip, yes it felt like a letdown after the Avs game, but two big games in Minny and Chi-town kept them in the mix.
This club is better without Kovy. There I said it. And it’ll be much better next summer after they spend that $ elsewhere, that would’ve been wasted on him. Let’s just pray it’s not still Waddell making the decisions, or we’re screwed. Come on, Vote Of Confidence, work your magic once again.
Stat Man
February 15th, 2010
2:19 pm
All I got to say is; SO FAR, SO GOOD
Since the trade:
Devils are 2-3-1; Kovy 1-G, 4-A and is -1
Thrash are 2-1-2; Bergfors 3-G, 1-a and is +2
Yea – so far, so good and if you really want to feel better, figure the first games of each team: Thrash were losing to the Caps with or without Kovy and the Devils were going to beat the Leafs with or without Kovy, so you can justifiably say that since that point the Thrash have gotten 6 of 8 points while the studly Devils have gotten 3 of 10 possible points.
P.S. – Kulda has shown more physicality around the net in his 2 games than any other Atlanta blue liner I can remember.
R. Stroz
February 15th, 2010
2:26 pm
WBF – I’m sure Charmin will make an Angel Soft landing on aWhite Cloud.
Brendan
February 15th, 2010
3:23 pm
I’d rather not buy out Todd White. Put him on waivers or package him. One of Waddell’s most remarkable achievements was, for me, that he found someone willing to take Jaroslav Modry off our hands. It was part of the Patrik Stefan trade. If Waddudley can package Todd White to a team that needs a 4th line center, it’d be better than PAYING HIM NOT TO PLAY for Atlanta.
Smoothie, if there is another lockout, at least we’ll know that we have a “2-year window” to build a Cup winner, before the cap prices us out of the market again.
World Be Free
February 15th, 2010
3:24 pm
Bob-let’s hope you are wrong. I have to admit that I viewed the 1 year deal as a 1 yr and gone scenario. But I also know the Pens are up against the cap right now with very little wiggle room for a $2.5M player. I know Tronna likes Colby and they will have plenty of cap room come this summer. So it’s up to D-W to determine which way we are going with Colby.
LAC
February 15th, 2010
3:31 pm
No rob, I will attend again when waddell is GONE and ONLY then.
Zoomo dam is spelled damN.
I view the recent road trip as a very good one. NOBODY whipped us at ALL, we got
points in ALL three games and could have gone EITHER way in two.
But, as pointed out, BAD defense in Colorado, mainly #4, who needs about a two week SIT
at the very very least or traded and we need better goaltending, sorry but Pavs is not making it right now.
Loved the ohhhhh when we scored to take the lead in Chicago, boy the air went out of their ballon real fast !!!!
Also saw a large number of EMPTY seats in New Jersey the other night, know there was snow, but
bet #17 felt right at home…. Here too ! He has been the same coaster there as here, he can forget what he wants. And what was up with all that Anti-Atlanta talk last week ? Real crappy, but let’s ALL face it, this aint no first-class franchise, it is Mickey Mouse at the very best !
R. Stroz
February 15th, 2010
3:46 pm
it is Mickey Mouse at the very best
I was thinking a Goofy organization.
World Be Free
February 15th, 2010
3:47 pm
LAC-Jersey has always had a tough time TRULY filling all the seats, unless the Islanders, Rangers, Flyers or Brunes are in town.
R. Stroz
February 15th, 2010
3:56 pm
Brendan – If Charmin could be moved in a trade, I’d break down and have a drink.
Nikita
February 15th, 2010
4:11 pm
Todd White and Slava need to be waived. As I said before, especially Slava.
Lee
February 15th, 2010
7:36 pm
Kovalchuk looks so happy on the Devils. He actually smiles and even laughs….*gasp*!!!! Ahhh…..well I miss the guy……nah…not really.
Rawhide
February 15th, 2010
7:57 pm
And now for something completely different…a new blog to discuss ‘What if the NHL did away with the overtime “loser”point’.
rob
February 15th, 2010
8:01 pm
Brendan,
If we are looking at going as a depth team, then one thing that goes with the depth team is the guys will all be looking around thinking there 30 goal year means they are ready for the jump, and then they do and get crushed back to reality. Just look every time one of them leaves Buffalo. How many Sabres NOT on the Sabres work out well after they leave. So sit Armstrong down now and tell him he can have a lot of fun playing the game he loves with guys on the same page as him, or go somewhere else and not have as much fun for a few more bucks. When does it become greed, and not about the fun of the game? Put it to his pride that way and see if he wants to be a true LEADER here or just another part somewhere else. Gotta stop the leaking sometime, so start somewhere it shouldn’t cost us out the nose. And who was it that said Pavs should average $3mil year?!?!? When he starts stopping that 4th Chicago goal on a regular basis then he can talk about big boy money. Til then he is a backup.
Brendan
February 15th, 2010
8:30 pm
Rob, excellent post. I think you’re really on to something with the depth strategy. As I’ve explained in the past, one of the difficulties with it … is the second any of the 20-goal scorers hit 30 or 35, by overachievement, they’ll all be gone when pending UFA status arrives. That’s why, in the depth strategy, you simply MUST DRAFT WELL.
Why?
You have to have your next 20 goal scorer REPLACEMENT player waiting in the wings. If you’re a Sabres fan, that means someone like Drew Stafford or MacArthur Park, or even a Rob Roy or Jason Pomminville. And you’ve still got to get contributions from players like Gaustad.
I welcome the depth strategy … I think Atlanta is the perfect place to try it. And if Atlanta has a GM that specializes in finding ‘Tweeners who can pot 20 goals, so much the better. But with that depth strategy must accompany GRIT! All those 20-goal scorers need some toughness about them. Middling grinders have to be able to hit and fight, too. There has to be some sort of “overall concept.” Like???
Well, like “team toughness.” Or “team speed.” Or “team defense.” But it has to be something. The team’s GM can’t rudderless, with no direction. The identity must be there.
R.Stroz, I can make an O’Douls. How ’bout that?
Sage of Bluesland
February 16th, 2010
7:10 am
As with the many ‘adjustment periods’ of the past, I’ll patiently wait and see over a course of 20+ games if the recent uptick is a real trend–or more like BadgerBob’s-Gold…
I think we all know where the real truth lies…You can bluster like Donny all you want–but, in the end, once the others adjust to your tweaks and you have no answer, you will lose.
No different than when magical-Donny went behind the bench after Hartley was fired. My, some of the sheep have such short memories! (Then again, no surprise there–they want to bewieve so badly! They’ll take anything Donny and Bruce spoon-feed them–but it is humorous to observe their hopeless dreaming!)
Glass half-empty until proven over a course of more than a couple of months.