Does the Thrashers shot gap deficit really matter?
The Thrashers prepare for a good old-fashioned cat fight tonight as the Florida Panthers make their first of three scheduled appearances in Philips Arena. Florida comes in with a record of 10-11-4 for 24 points and fresh off Saturday’s 4-1 loss in Nashville. Atlanta is 13-7-3 with 29 points and will hopefully be riding a rush from Saturday’s thrilling 1-0 victory of the Flyers. We trail division-leading Washington by seven points with three games in hand.
Atlanta also claims the seventh overall spot in the Eastern Conference…one point behind Ottawa and Buffalo. The Senators have played one more game than the Thrashers and Sabres.
And speaking of cat fights…we here at the AJC Thrashers Cyber-Office had to break up a…well…er, ah…a very heated discussion between Trixie and Vivlamore’s cyber-secretary Scarlett just this morning. I mean, not even a couple hours into the workweek following a long Thanksgiving weekend and already those two were into it!
Seems the subject of their debate circled around this whole issue regarding how many shots the Thrashers defense allows each game versus how few they average taking. Trixie seems to think it doesn’t really matter much given the Thrashers record. Scarlett believes it is indeed a serious cause for concern.
They expressed their thoughts on the matter while sipping their morning coffee…opinions differed…word were exchanged…insults were hurled…feeling were hurt…lipstick was smeared…all in all a very ugly scene.
Here is the situation…after 23 games played the Thrashers are averaging 28.5 shots per game and allowing a league-worst 35.6 shots per game. Now, if prior to the season someone would have told me this was going to be the case, I would have thought this team would be off to a start of something like 7-13-3…not the direct opposite.
The reason that they find themselves in such a favorable position at this time, despite the shots gap deficit, is thanks to their outstanding goalkeeping and offense thus far. Because of it the Thrashers’ are giving up only 2.74 goals per game. At the same time, the offense is pumping in goals at the rate of 3.44 per game. That’s putting the biscuit in the basket once every eight shots or so.
Between the pipes, Ondrej Pavelec has worked his way to a record of 8-5-3 with a 2.84 GAA, .920 SV% and his first two career shutouts. In doing so, he’s also worked his way into the team’s top goalkeeper spot…Kari or no Kari.
Johan Hedberg has been outstanding as well going 5-2-0 with an outstanding 2.33 GAA and .930 SV%. His most recent start…a 34 save shutout last Saturday night… put a halt to the 14-game losing streak to the Philadelphia Flyers.
Combined, the two sport a 2.68 GAA, .924 SV% and three shutouts…which is very nice, indeed.
Also, they have gotten excellent play from their special teams…the power play is successful 23.1% of the time, which is the seventh best in the NHL. And their penalty kill unit has denied opponents the ability to score an amazing 85.0% of the time…only San Jose shuts the door more often when a man down.
Regardless…the one big concern most have about this team is the “Shot Gap Deficit”. How can a team that allows 7.1 more shots to be taken than they fire off themselves continue to win at the rate the Thrashers have over the course of an entire season?
Does the current "shot gap deficit" concern you?
- Scarlett's right! They gotta close it or we're doomed (50%, 35 Votes)
- Trixie's right! We are winning despite it so it's no big deal (39%, 27 Votes)
- Why not take the same approach the government does to deficits and qualdruple it in order to "fix it"? (11%, 8 Votes)
Total Voters: 70
Loading ...Well, there are two simple responses to such an inquiry.
1. They don’t. They either close that gap significantly or any post-season dreams they have are toast…as Scarlett argues.
2. If it hasn’t made much of a difference to date…why should it matter over the course of the remaining 59 games? This is Trixie’s take on the matter.
Now in the past, any time such a stat was this far out of whack it would just bug the snot outa me. Last season the shot gap was -4.6 as they averaged 28.1 shots taken per game and 32.7 shots allowed. The season prior, the shot for/against deficit was -8.1 as they took an average of 25.8 shots per game and surrendered 33.9.
As we recall, both campaigns ended in Lottery City for the Thrashers.
But this year…well, it’s different. First, we have a starting goalie that seems to be very comfortable facing so many shots. Second, the offense is good enough and consistent enough to cover if Opie or Moose do have an off night…or the opposition scores three or four times simply because of the law of averages.
Oh, this isn’t to say that I think Anderson and Company wouldn’t do themselves a world of good to cut down on the SA/G and fire more on opponent’s nets to close the gap…but I figure the more they win, the less of an issue it becomes.
So…the Thrashers’ great shots deficit…who’s do you side with, Trixie or Scarlett?
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109 comments Add your comment
Dwayne
November 30th, 2009
8:10 pm
got to be the worse 2-2 first period ever….turnovers, fluke goals, goalie gets clobbered by own player. Kovy has a goal, so what, he looks like he wants to be in Vancouver, remember my trade scenario??? Oh, and to top it all off???? the worst announcers I have ever heard, they are worse that Rathburn and Wilkens, now that is bad!!! If I had any hair i’d pull it all out…stinks, stinks, stinks. They better win, so all will be well!!!!
Tom
November 30th, 2009
8:49 pm
Pops is trying to get back to Chicago with turnovers like that. I really like the kid but with Valabek back that was not a very good move.
Miami Screaming Eagle
November 30th, 2009
8:52 pm
Bob-I wondered who would react to that statement!
Tom
November 30th, 2009
9:36 pm
Wow, Max has the magic in the last few minutes. Goal with 5.5 seconds left.
Get The Puck Out
November 30th, 2009
9:46 pm
I don’t wanna hear another word about Max.
Get The Puck Out
November 30th, 2009
9:47 pm
Negative that is.
HookyBob
November 30th, 2009
9:47 pm
My goodness,…Max is clutch.
Tony C.
November 30th, 2009
9:48 pm
WOW what a finish.
Again The Russian Front comes through to secure a win… You know, last year I think we had something like 6 20+ goal scorers, but I think this year’s squad could boast as many as 8!
Tough game, tonight, lots of mistakes made -BUT-and here’s where the 2K9/2K10 Thrashers differ from most every other year; they don’t quit and they have the “guns” to reward the compete-level shown by our boys.
Really looking forward to making it to the “Calder Showdown” this Thursday.
As far as the insane SOG disparity, I’m not as concerned because a lot of times, it does seem that opposition teams spend much of the 1st period throwing anything they can at our net, this coupled with our boys’ penchant to not actually start skating until 15:00 or so remaining in the 2nd period, produces quite a lot of the disparity. IDK if any of yall have the SOG by period, but I would bet that the disparity goes down as the game goes on.
Big win, and as noted by Kincade (who does a good job as color guy-mebbe 680 should think about that for home games) it was the type of game that this club hasn’t won in the past; mistakes and untimely penalties…years past there’d be heads hanging low and one or three guys really busting their @ss to overcome the gaffes-this year, “we’re not gonna take it” seems to be the general attitude on the bench-I believe over the last stretch we’ve only lost once in regulation-and that to the defending champs.
Things look good in Blueland, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Santa isn’t packing a long-term deal for #17 & the Thrashers in his goodie bag this Christmas.
Also-anybody else notice that things have been going very well since Coach started growing his ‘Fu’??? Please somebody tell him not to shave it off… although Mrs. Anderson may not be for it.
Nate
November 30th, 2009
9:58 pm
It will not show up in the boxscore, but Kane got Max that game winner with his hustle. I love that kid.
Brendan
November 30th, 2009
10:01 pm
The PA announced 35 shots by Atlanta, 28 for the Panthers. Yay!
Oh that Max, he’s so horrible. Way overpaid, too.
Oh mercy. What a “gut punch” to Florida, after Vokoun endures a serious game-ending injury. The Cats played well enough to earn that “pity” point, but Max says, “nyet!” And Schubert says, “nein!” Viking will have to tell me what Hedberg said in Swedish.
I want to say that I feel bad for Mark Popovic, on that 3rd Panther goal. A simple mistake led to that Florida goal.
Glovesave29
November 30th, 2009
10:03 pm
C’mon sing along -
I got my head shaved, by a jumbo jet….
Sign Max, now!
I’ve always liked Darrin Eliot, and after hearing Kincade’s self-aggrandizing yap for two and a half hours, I like him even more. Talk about total lack of insight.
five_hole
November 30th, 2009
10:04 pm
I’m not a fan of JA’s fu-manchu. Doesn’t seem to work with the blond hair.
Youtube has the video of Ballard’s whacking of Vokoun. To me, it didn’t look like he was swinging at the goal posts; he was facing Vokoun when he whacked him. I’m agnostic so I won’t pray for Vokoun, but I do hope he’s going to be OK.
And I’ve been loving Mad Max since he was in training camp. He just makes things happen.
Brendan
November 30th, 2009
10:07 pm
That’s a 4-point swing, tonight! Are we really 14-7-3? We must go into the Olympic break 6-7 games over .500. Tear off points #65 and #64 from the wall chart. For we only need 63 more points to be in the playoffs.
R. Stroz
November 30th, 2009
10:38 pm
Mo Max, Mo Max, Mo Max…
LAC
November 30th, 2009
10:40 pm
None closer than tonight, Great third period and how about MAX ???
Playing like a Rookie out there, if he continues… a SURE fire
for Comeback Player of THE YEAR !!! What a shot that was, watch the reply, it was something to see…
Kane gets HIGH marks for his hustle on eeping the puck in their zone,
OUTSTANDING !!!!!!
But do have to say the empty seats were sad to see…, entire sections it looked like.
Lastly, besides the Buffalo announcers, These guys on FL are TERRIBLE, I still cannot believe they replaced Denis Potvin with this Bill Lindsey ???? What a STUPID move that was !!!
Great win and time to repay NYI thursday night !!!!!!!!
Brendan
November 30th, 2009
10:47 pm
I agree with Nate’s comment above. Kane’s hustle created the winning goal. Here’s that boxscore, anyway: http://www.nhl.com/ice/boxscore.htm?id=2009020385. Also, good awareness by Antropov, with precious little time left. For Max, believe it or not, this is his first (1st) Game-Winning Goal (GWG) of the season. I thought he had more than that. The team leader in GWG’s, and for the whole NHL for that matter, is Rich Peverley, who was kept off the scoresheet tonight, at 5 GWG’s. Evander Kane has 3 GWG’s. I wonder if he’s the “rookie leader” in GWG’s?
Okay, time for my 3 stars. 1st Star: Max Afinogenov, 1 goal and +2 for the game. 2nd Star: Nik Antropov, 2 assists and +2 for the game. 3rd Star: Eric Boulton, 2 assists and +2 for the game. I know. I know. Boults was in the box when Olesz scored the PPG for Florida. But, if we look at his minutes played and results, Boulton had a good game. Enough to be the 3rd Star, anyway.
Other notable news … Kubina is +16 now. Enstrom is +11. Resoner is now +9, as is Evander Kane.
The +1 guys tonight were Bogosian, Hainsey, Kovalchuk, and T. Enstrom. At +2 were Reasoner, Thorburn, Boulton, Finny, and Antropov.
And there’s even more good news on the night. Tampa Bay was shutout by Colorado, 3-0. The Capitals did beat the ‘Canes, handing Carolina its 5-straight loss. Did that start with Atlanta overcoming the 4-1 deficit to pot 5 third period goals, in a 6-4 win in Raleigh? Paul Maurice still have a job?? And Buffalo went into Toronto to shut them out, 3-0. Miller made 38 saves.
LAC
November 30th, 2009
11:10 pm
We were 9-3-3 in November, Washington was 8-3-3. so we win the month !!!
Tough month of December, with four game trip coming FL/Tor/Flames/Vanc… Will NOT be easy !
But with the way we are playing, we might surprise !
Nate
November 30th, 2009
11:11 pm
Brendan – Plus/Minus is usually an indicator of good defensive play. I’ll agree with that, but it can be deceiving sometimes. In respect to Kovy, Antro, and Max tonight it’s a case of my dad can beat up your dad. The only reason those guys were plus tonight was because of the few offensive chances they capitalized on in the game. I thought they were the worst line defensively by far tonight. I know that’s not a shock to anyone, but it was REALLY bad tonight.
Sara
November 30th, 2009
11:45 pm
Nate – yeah that match-up of the Russians against the Horton line was bad, badder, and baddest. Totally got out-forechecked every shift. Really glad we managed to pull that one out.
So, over/under on Ovechkin suspension?
Darren
November 30th, 2009
11:53 pm
What a great game. Our boys are looking great. But I was at that game and the crowd was despicable, especially for a winning team. No more than 1,500 there tonight.
LAC
December 1st, 2009
5:45 am
The announced crowd of 10,310 was the smallest of the season.
If this type attendence continues, we may not have hockey here much longer…
Rawhide, your comments on the POOR attendence, Is it something that concerns you ?
Miami Screaming Eagle
December 1st, 2009
6:03 am
Max is playing for his next contract and I have to say, with great signing him would be a great move. We are not going to sign anyone if we don’t get more fans in the seats.
LAC cannot agree with your accessment of the Sabres’ announcers being bad. Not that I am a homer for my original team, but they actually very good. Jenneret gets high praise form national media outlets. Harry NEal was with Hockey Night in Canada on their no. 1 team for about 15 seasons. You just don’t like the Sabres!
The difference between Buffalo and Toronto right now is Ryan Miller, nothing else.
Alan R.
December 1st, 2009
7:18 am
I wouldn’t call the Sabres announcers “bad.” Just annoying as all hell.
I know LAC didn’t ask me, but I’ll answer anyway. I don’t think attendance is a problem. Yeah, a 10k draw is bad. Very bad. However, “if you build it, they will come.” The more we win, the more fans we can win bad, and the more new fans we can create.
Or, at least, we’ll draw the “fairweather” types to the games.
GaVaHokie
December 1st, 2009
8:10 am
Max = Clutch
Dwayne
December 1st, 2009
8:20 am
Mad Max Beyond Georgia Dome…coming to rink near you!!!
Jimbo
December 1st, 2009
8:21 am
Way to go Max Finish A GAMe OFF. Scoring chances rather than SOG are far more important. Attendance always lags during the football season. Let’s hope that it starts to pick up as folks come to realize that we have both a winning and fun to watch team. Nothing more boring that watching teams that use a mid-ice trap. fun to watch Toby, Zach and Hainsey wind up and skate up the middle.
bluenote
December 1st, 2009
8:22 am
Great perspective on both sides of the SOG debate, but I think Scarlett has it right.
No question the quality of shots our keepers are facing has dropped and it’s a great relief to NOT see them coming 2-3-4 at a time in front of the net. Major improvements there.
BUT
Dare I utter the “P” word? S’gonna become un-good late season and beyond.
Just my 5,000,000 turkish lire for the morning.
Any word on Vokoun? Hope the ringing in his ears has subsided
GaVaHokie
December 1st, 2009
8:23 am
Eight 3rd period goals for Max… last night, the GWer with 5.5 seconds left in the game… unreal.
Zoomo
December 1st, 2009
8:46 am
Kane really hustled to get the puck down ice for the 3rd goal. Great effort all night from him. I love his motor.
Moose had some bad luck on that first goal. It looked like Weiss was going to go around the back of the net and then he slipped the puck into the corner of thenet off of Moose’s skate. I’m not even sure if it was intentional or the puck just slipped off his stick.
Pops had a nice goal and a bad turnover for the Cats 3rd. Nice to see Boulton have a very solid game. 4th line played well most of the night. Reasoner is a quiet stud game in and game out.
Hainsey was stunned at the end of the second when his rocket from the slot didn’t go in.
I like what I’m seeing from Little. He finally seemes to be rounding back into form. Only a matter of a few games before he breaks out with 2 or 3 goals (?)
Toby
December 1st, 2009
8:48 am
I agree with Alan R. on the attendance issue. Wad and Co. dug such a deep hole for the last 9 seasons, it’s going to take time to dig out. A Monday night game, fresh off the holidays, against the Panthers is not the true test of where this franchise is. I believe the attendance will slowly grow throughout the season, if we keep up the good play.
Toby
December 1st, 2009
8:49 am
Oops…fresh of Thanksgiving I mean…
DWTOO
December 1st, 2009
8:53 am
Max’s goal was set up by Kane’s hustle. Bringing the puck up the ice, fighting off the check, gaining possession in the corner. Without that we go to OT. Evander continues to show that he belongs in the bigs. And I was amongst those who thought another year of Juniors would be good. Glad I was wrong.
Spud Webb
December 1st, 2009
9:07 am
Lol, I love it, Good job Max.
You guys are NUTS that after 22 games you wanna sign him to a long term deal?? Cmon, can we get half way through the season??? Please???
LAC Jenneret is AWESOME. He’s one of the best!
Kane is a HORSE. GOOD job THRASHERS!!! Attendence will pick up.
World Be Free
December 1st, 2009
9:15 am
The problem with most hockey announcers around the league is that they don’t know hockey. They don’t know the game, period. You know, like Boob Davie on ESPN!
Jeanneret knows the game; he called games in the OHA/OHL before coming to the NHL in the early 70’s. He has a style that’s abrasive if you are not a Sabres’ fan cause he’s a homer. To say he’s a bad announcer isn’t very accurate.
Bob
December 1st, 2009
9:41 am
Kane deserves 1st star for his hustle getting that puck on the game winner. He was also skating great on the kill all night.
That attendance was shocking. Florida has always been a bad draw and Monday night doesn’t help. But I just wonder how much damage has been done to the fan base by Waddell for all these years. For myself, I am fine watching my high def feed from home now, no traffic to fight down there for a 7pm start. People fall into habits and once you stop going to 40 games a year, you don’t miss it as much. Don’t know that I’ll ever go back to full season tix no matter how much better they play, but we will go to some weekend games. No way I fight traffic down there for 7pm starts unless we get into the playoffs.
Otey
December 1st, 2009
9:52 am
Cornbread – waaaay back up the thread – nails the SOG issue. Its the price you pay for giving Kovy and Max so much ice time.
Whether that trade-off is worth it from a team development perspective remains to be seen. There’s no denying that they are our two most exciting players. But at what cost…?
Spud Webb
December 1st, 2009
10:00 am
Bob, watching hockey in the high definition is AWESOME. I just stare!! SOOOOOOOOOOO CLEAR!!!!
World Be Free
December 1st, 2009
10:05 am
Heading to the game Thursday night. Hope everyone on the blog is there!
10 Spot
December 1st, 2009
10:17 am
LOL five_hole @ “I’m not a fan of JA’s fu-manchu. Doesn’t seem to work with the blond hair.” Hopefully “Movember” ended last night and everyone can get out their Wahl Peanut trimmers and go to town. Although Bogey looked straight off the set of Boogie Nights (”Bogey Nights”?), which was fun.
After watching from about 10 rows behind the net and later, on TSN replays, I still don’t know where Ballard went after the incident? His whole team, plus a few Thrashers were on the ice looking on but I didn’t see him. Kind of strange since he had to know that was his fault. Shame? Idk, but I thought he should have been out there for V.
Kane Train and Maximum Finish – what a glorious sight!! Is Little ever going to get another goal? Ever since I started wearing his jersey, it’s as if I’ve cursed him!
Great seeing you last night, Tiller! Always a pleasure to hear your input in person.
World Be Free
December 1st, 2009
10:29 am
Nice post in Canada about Ryan Miller from last night’s shutout against the Leafs-
“Not only is Miller currently the top goalie in the league, he is also one of the classiest. After firing a fluke shot through the camera hole in the glass and leaving his mark on the camera guy, he took the time to go over and check on the guy. Most goalies wouldn’t want that distraction during the game, especially with a shutout in the works. But to top it off, Miller goes over after the game and gives the guy his stick, the stick from a shutout. Pretty classy move by Miller. I just hope the stick doesn’t end up on eBay.”
Miller took the stick over to the guy after the game was over before taking congratulations from his teammates. USA! USA! USA!
Viking
December 1st, 2009
10:49 am
Brendan,
Hedberg said “Nej!”
kracker
December 1st, 2009
11:08 am
Is Jeanneret the one that tries to use every last molecule of breath in his lungs when saying “He scoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooores!”? He grates like a screeching cat + fingernails on a blackboard. It’s almost unbearable when he can see the goal is coming and he can suck in a full breath so that the screech can go as long as possible.
No thanks to that.
Rawhide
December 1st, 2009
11:14 am
10 Spot - Nice spending time with you and the Smoothinator as well!
Smoothie
December 1st, 2009
11:20 am
Who provided the attendance figure? A pinkerton from the Civil War era? Genl George McClellan would be proud of that inflation of the true number of fans in the stands. “10 spot” and I were in attendance and there couldn’t have been more than 5,000 people there. Twas quite sad, even for a Monday night. When Thrash’s drum is so loud in the lower level from the reverberation off of the empty seats that it pierces your ear drums, then you know it is tomb-like at the Bulb, um I mean the Morgue. At least “Smaximum” smacked home the GW in dramatic fashion to give the few thousand in attendance a nice reward for showing up!
Smoothie
December 1st, 2009
11:20 am
Wow Bill, that is toooooo eerie…it’s like we share the same mind.
Can I have it back now?
Viking
December 1st, 2009
11:29 am
Current points projection: 95.96 (!)
Smoothie
December 1st, 2009
11:31 am
Zoomo – most of your post is spot on and I agree with everything BUT…
…the 3rd goal was more Hedberg’s fault than Popovic’s. Moose didn’t read the play correctly and should’ve actually let the puck go to the other side as Pops was there to corral it without breaking stride. But instead, he stops the puck, breaks Pops momentum, who tries to slam on the brakes, reverse the puck to Schubie and it takes a weird bounce before it can get to him. There were 2 D-men in the area and only one forechecker. By stopping the puck, Moose gave the forechecker a chance to actually force the play. Can’t blame Pops entirely for that one.
However, I will say that was one of the worst games Schubert has played as a Thrasher. I think he needs more consistency in who his pairing is as he is forced to play musical 3rd pairing D-men every other game.
Viking
December 1st, 2009
11:33 am
Sorry, scratch the previous post; the points projection is 105.96.
I guess it felt too good to be true.
Smoothie
December 1st, 2009
11:36 am
Viking, are you accounting for a January road trip swoon or something?
We are on pace for 105.91 points just using the “straight-line” method of projecting our points pace. While I don’t expect us to keep winning at a clip of 64.5% of the available points, I hate for anyone to understate what they have accomplished thus far. So please pardon my overbearing correction of your mathematical error!
Dwayne
December 1st, 2009
11:40 am
Ballard went to the locker room for a moment, he was visably shaking by what he did. I know i’ve said this before, but i’ll say it again…Chief Poopy Pants and his squaw, that I have seen, never cheer, they get all this face time and they have the same goofy, whats going on expressions. Do they ever stand and cheer?? I’m going to find out in person real soon. 5000 people can make alot of noise if done together. What do the Blue crew do? Just clean ice with those pooper scoopers?? Are some of them in the stands chreering?