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	<title>Comments on: Thrashers Math 101 &#8211; Statistics and Projections</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/2009/11/11/thrasher-math-101-statistics-and-projections/</link>
	<description>A fan’s perspective on the Atlanta Thrashers, with a dose of humor and a hint of irreverence</description>
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		<title>By: Rawhide</title>
		<link>http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/2009/11/11/thrasher-math-101-statistics-and-projections/comment-page-2/#comment-14343</link>
		<dc:creator>Rawhide</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:37:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/?p=4572#comment-14343</guid>
		<description>&lt;strong&gt;Bluenote&lt;/strong&gt; - Thank you very much for the anniversary congrats...and everyone else who offered them up as well.

Now...&lt;a href=&quot;http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/2009/11/12/thrashers-kane-ing-of-rangers-dispenses-any-worries-of-kovys-return/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;a new blogity-blog&lt;/a&gt; to discuss tonight&#039;s great 5-3 win.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Bluenote</strong> &#8211; Thank you very much for the anniversary congrats&#8230;and everyone else who offered them up as well.</p>
<p>Now&#8230;<a href="http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/2009/11/12/thrashers-kane-ing-of-rangers-dispenses-any-worries-of-kovys-return/" rel="nofollow">a new blogity-blog</a> to discuss tonight&#8217;s great 5-3 win.</p>
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		<title>By: LAC</title>
		<link>http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/2009/11/11/thrasher-math-101-statistics-and-projections/comment-page-2/#comment-14342</link>
		<dc:creator>LAC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:10:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/?p=4572#comment-14342</guid>
		<description>Bryan Little&#039;s line from tonight&#039;s game... This is AWFUL and it is a game after game thing, this kid has lost it...

Bryan Little 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 15:33 18 0 0 

No SOG, No NOTHING... He needs to be moved while he has a &quot;little&quot; 
trade value...

But gutsy win, we stopped playing in the third for long periods...
ungood, but carried play in first &amp; second, a good sign, Friday night will not be easy...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bryan Little&#8217;s line from tonight&#8217;s game&#8230; This is AWFUL and it is a game after game thing, this kid has lost it&#8230;</p>
<p>Bryan Little 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 15:33 18 0 0 </p>
<p>No SOG, No NOTHING&#8230; He needs to be moved while he has a &#8220;little&#8221;<br />
trade value&#8230;</p>
<p>But gutsy win, we stopped playing in the third for long periods&#8230;<br />
ungood, but carried play in first &amp; second, a good sign, Friday night will not be easy&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Bluenote</title>
		<link>http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/2009/11/11/thrasher-math-101-statistics-and-projections/comment-page-2/#comment-14341</link>
		<dc:creator>Bluenote</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 02:41:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/?p=4572#comment-14341</guid>
		<description>Pro-fesssssssss-oooor.......Pro-fesssssssss-oooor.......Pro-fesssssssss-oooor.......

WE WIN! 2 points at MSG is a good night in anyone&#039;s book

Congrats to the Rawhides on your milestone and to Kovy&#039;s podiatrist on a job well done!

Bring on the Kings</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pro-fesssssssss-oooor&#8230;&#8230;.Pro-fesssssssss-oooor&#8230;&#8230;.Pro-fesssssssss-oooor&#8230;&#8230;.</p>
<p>WE WIN! 2 points at MSG is a good night in anyone&#8217;s book</p>
<p>Congrats to the Rawhides on your milestone and to Kovy&#8217;s podiatrist on a job well done!</p>
<p>Bring on the Kings</p>
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		<title>By: Nikita</title>
		<link>http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/2009/11/11/thrasher-math-101-statistics-and-projections/comment-page-2/#comment-14340</link>
		<dc:creator>Nikita</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 02:07:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/?p=4572#comment-14340</guid>
		<description>End of the second and all looks o.k...can&#039;t wait to see the third.  Incidentally, I think this game tonight was the best first period that I&#039;ve seen so far this season.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>End of the second and all looks o.k&#8230;can&#8217;t wait to see the third.  Incidentally, I think this game tonight was the best first period that I&#8217;ve seen so far this season.</p>
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		<title>By: LAC</title>
		<link>http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/2009/11/11/thrasher-math-101-statistics-and-projections/comment-page-2/#comment-14339</link>
		<dc:creator>LAC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 01:11:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/?p=4572#comment-14339</guid>
		<description>Boy we should have at least 5 goals !!!!

And WHO out there has seen ENOUGH of Bryan Little, I have, simply nothing in the tank game after game, I say TRADE him soon !

Has he scored yet this season using his stick ? He scored NYR first goal tonight, darn...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Boy we should have at least 5 goals !!!!</p>
<p>And WHO out there has seen ENOUGH of Bryan Little, I have, simply nothing in the tank game after game, I say TRADE him soon !</p>
<p>Has he scored yet this season using his stick ? He scored NYR first goal tonight, darn&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Brendan</title>
		<link>http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/2009/11/11/thrasher-math-101-statistics-and-projections/comment-page-2/#comment-14338</link>
		<dc:creator>Brendan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:07:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/?p=4572#comment-14338</guid>
		<description>Thank you, Spud.  If I ever hit that MegaMillions lottery ... and could get paired up with the right investment advice, then grow that into something where buying Philips, the Hawks and Thrashers were doable .... hehehehehe.  Well, we wouldn&#039;t worry about anything OTHER THAN being OVERRRRRRRR the cap limit for Opening Night.   It&#039;s fun to dream, right?   We&#039;re talking about $700 million to make reality.  Maybe more.  

In this respect, I can completely see things from the Spirit&#039;s side.  It&#039;s THEIR money to spend as they see fit.  And to make personnel decisions, as they see fit.  And I wouldn&#039;t, like Miami Screamin&#039; Eagle suggests, fault them (ownership) for setting a date for a Kovy contract decision.  Miami Screamin Eagle is right that the Atlanta Thrashers is a business.  It&#039;s a sports business.  And the owners should try to operate with their best shareholders/financial interests in mind. 

Now, if you asked me, &quot;Brendan, what&#039;s a good trade for Kovalchuk?,&quot; I&#039;m not going to say a 1st, 3rd, a conditional 1st, and a prospect.&quot;   The truth is, as someone above said, &quot;There is no such thing as an equal return on Kovalchuk.&quot;  I just don&#039;t think it exists.  Draft picks represent opportunities.  But, even owning a Top 5 pick is no guarantee of longrange success.  We can point to Patrik Stefan, Kari Lehtonen, even Dany Heatley.  Now, don&#039;t misunderstand me. I&#039;m not, even remotely, suggesting that Dany Heatley is some bust of a draft pick.  But the truth is, the organization couldn&#039;t keep him--and also couldn&#039;t find suitable longrange replacement for him.  

So, the question to keep in mind is this:  &quot;Who or what would replace Kovalchuk for the next 5-10 years in a trade?&quot;  Crosby.  Ovechkin.  Maybe even Staal, Stastny, Kane or Toews, depending on how things play out.   But the bottom line is ... those aren&#039;t options that will ever be laid upon our table.  We just CANNOT get equal value.  Now, I&#039;ll listen to an argument that says you can POTENTIALLY get more value by trading him sooner, rather than later.   But, by how much?  It would have been one thing ... if after being swept in 2007, the Thrashers shopped Kovy to the highest bidder.  That return would have been better.  But how many Thrasher fans really wanted that???   They don&#039;t want to see Kovy traded, well ... EVER.   They want him to retire in Atlanta, by and large.  

In terms of the contract signing, the pending UFA does, indeed, hold ALLLL the cards.  Don Waddell cannot FORCE a re-signing.  Now, I hear ya.  Failure to sign can result in an unwanted trade for the player.  How does Kovy feel about Edmonton, for example?  Or Phoenix?   In that respect, the player doesn&#039;t have any control.   But come July 1, 2010, the UFA will decide where he wants to play, for how long, and how much money.   There&#039;s nothing Waddell can do ... but bid on his services, like any other GM.  If Waddell chooses to hang on to Kovy, right to the bitter end, he can attempt to do a &quot;salvage&quot; trade for whatever is out there, for exclusive negotiating rights prior to the free agent frenzy.  But no matter if Atlanta trades Kovy at the trade deadline or at the draft, it&#039;ll never get anything resembling equal value.

In that instance, you call it what it is.  An organizational FAILURE.  And not an unforseen one, either.  But we&#039;re not there, yet.  We haven&#039;t crossed that bridge.  Kovy might wait until President&#039;s Day, sometime in February, to re-sign.  And, if that happens, who will BOO?  It&#039;ll be nothing but rejoicing, for the most part.  I&#039;m sure ... there are a smattering of Thrasher fans who want to see Kovy gone.  For whatever their reasons.  But I&#039;d say they&#039;re in the minority.  

For me, and my comfort level, I&#039;d say the &quot;drop dead date&quot; for Kovy re-signing is 12 Noon on the day of the trade deadline.  If he&#039;s un-signed at that point, and the Thrashers are, for all intents and purposes, OUT OF THE PLAYOFF HUNT, then I think it&#039;s irresponsible not to trade him ... for whatever can be salvaged.  To hang on to him ... just to say ... &quot;We never traded Kovalchuk.  He walked out on us.  Boo him!&quot; is a little bit ridiculous.  If Kovalchuk remains &quot;undecided&quot; at the trade deadline, then he&#039;s probably not going to re-sign with us.  By then, certainly, he has to have a better feel for the organization&#039;s future.  

If not, then what&#039;s the rule?  &quot;For those who cannot make a decision, life will make the decision for you.&quot;  Who wants to be in that boat?  I&#039;d like to think that each of us wants to control our own destiny, such as it CAN be controlled.  By not re-signing with Atlanta, Kovalchuk has forced LIFE to make the decision for him.   He must live with Atlanta&#039;s right to trade him, to Edmonton, Columbus, Phoenix, Nashville, Calgary, or wherever.  And he cannot claim he DIDN&#039;T KNOW that was a possibility.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you, Spud.  If I ever hit that MegaMillions lottery &#8230; and could get paired up with the right investment advice, then grow that into something where buying Philips, the Hawks and Thrashers were doable &#8230;. hehehehehe.  Well, we wouldn&#8217;t worry about anything OTHER THAN being OVERRRRRRRR the cap limit for Opening Night.   It&#8217;s fun to dream, right?   We&#8217;re talking about $700 million to make reality.  Maybe more.  </p>
<p>In this respect, I can completely see things from the Spirit&#8217;s side.  It&#8217;s THEIR money to spend as they see fit.  And to make personnel decisions, as they see fit.  And I wouldn&#8217;t, like Miami Screamin&#8217; Eagle suggests, fault them (ownership) for setting a date for a Kovy contract decision.  Miami Screamin Eagle is right that the Atlanta Thrashers is a business.  It&#8217;s a sports business.  And the owners should try to operate with their best shareholders/financial interests in mind. </p>
<p>Now, if you asked me, &#8220;Brendan, what&#8217;s a good trade for Kovalchuk?,&#8221; I&#8217;m not going to say a 1st, 3rd, a conditional 1st, and a prospect.&#8221;   The truth is, as someone above said, &#8220;There is no such thing as an equal return on Kovalchuk.&#8221;  I just don&#8217;t think it exists.  Draft picks represent opportunities.  But, even owning a Top 5 pick is no guarantee of longrange success.  We can point to Patrik Stefan, Kari Lehtonen, even Dany Heatley.  Now, don&#8217;t misunderstand me. I&#8217;m not, even remotely, suggesting that Dany Heatley is some bust of a draft pick.  But the truth is, the organization couldn&#8217;t keep him&#8211;and also couldn&#8217;t find suitable longrange replacement for him.  </p>
<p>So, the question to keep in mind is this:  &#8220;Who or what would replace Kovalchuk for the next 5-10 years in a trade?&#8221;  Crosby.  Ovechkin.  Maybe even Staal, Stastny, Kane or Toews, depending on how things play out.   But the bottom line is &#8230; those aren&#8217;t options that will ever be laid upon our table.  We just CANNOT get equal value.  Now, I&#8217;ll listen to an argument that says you can POTENTIALLY get more value by trading him sooner, rather than later.   But, by how much?  It would have been one thing &#8230; if after being swept in 2007, the Thrashers shopped Kovy to the highest bidder.  That return would have been better.  But how many Thrasher fans really wanted that???   They don&#8217;t want to see Kovy traded, well &#8230; EVER.   They want him to retire in Atlanta, by and large.  </p>
<p>In terms of the contract signing, the pending UFA does, indeed, hold ALLLL the cards.  Don Waddell cannot FORCE a re-signing.  Now, I hear ya.  Failure to sign can result in an unwanted trade for the player.  How does Kovy feel about Edmonton, for example?  Or Phoenix?   In that respect, the player doesn&#8217;t have any control.   But come July 1, 2010, the UFA will decide where he wants to play, for how long, and how much money.   There&#8217;s nothing Waddell can do &#8230; but bid on his services, like any other GM.  If Waddell chooses to hang on to Kovy, right to the bitter end, he can attempt to do a &#8220;salvage&#8221; trade for whatever is out there, for exclusive negotiating rights prior to the free agent frenzy.  But no matter if Atlanta trades Kovy at the trade deadline or at the draft, it&#8217;ll never get anything resembling equal value.</p>
<p>In that instance, you call it what it is.  An organizational FAILURE.  And not an unforseen one, either.  But we&#8217;re not there, yet.  We haven&#8217;t crossed that bridge.  Kovy might wait until President&#8217;s Day, sometime in February, to re-sign.  And, if that happens, who will BOO?  It&#8217;ll be nothing but rejoicing, for the most part.  I&#8217;m sure &#8230; there are a smattering of Thrasher fans who want to see Kovy gone.  For whatever their reasons.  But I&#8217;d say they&#8217;re in the minority.  </p>
<p>For me, and my comfort level, I&#8217;d say the &#8220;drop dead date&#8221; for Kovy re-signing is 12 Noon on the day of the trade deadline.  If he&#8217;s un-signed at that point, and the Thrashers are, for all intents and purposes, OUT OF THE PLAYOFF HUNT, then I think it&#8217;s irresponsible not to trade him &#8230; for whatever can be salvaged.  To hang on to him &#8230; just to say &#8230; &#8220;We never traded Kovalchuk.  He walked out on us.  Boo him!&#8221; is a little bit ridiculous.  If Kovalchuk remains &#8220;undecided&#8221; at the trade deadline, then he&#8217;s probably not going to re-sign with us.  By then, certainly, he has to have a better feel for the organization&#8217;s future.  </p>
<p>If not, then what&#8217;s the rule?  &#8220;For those who cannot make a decision, life will make the decision for you.&#8221;  Who wants to be in that boat?  I&#8217;d like to think that each of us wants to control our own destiny, such as it CAN be controlled.  By not re-signing with Atlanta, Kovalchuk has forced LIFE to make the decision for him.   He must live with Atlanta&#8217;s right to trade him, to Edmonton, Columbus, Phoenix, Nashville, Calgary, or wherever.  And he cannot claim he DIDN&#8217;T KNOW that was a possibility.</p>
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		<title>By: Smoothie</title>
		<link>http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/2009/11/11/thrasher-math-101-statistics-and-projections/comment-page-2/#comment-14337</link>
		<dc:creator>Smoothie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:50:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/?p=4572#comment-14337</guid>
		<description>I really appreciate Kovy&#039;s enthusiasm and sense of urgency in wanting to play again so soon. After tonite, we have a huge 5 game homestand in which we must start making some hay if we are to get into position for a playoff run. With all the other teams still having 3-5 games in hand, we need to win 7 or 8 points on this homestand to avoid falling too far behind. I think Kovy realizes that and wants to be the human momentum swing for this team after their potential turning point win vs St Louis.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I really appreciate Kovy&#8217;s enthusiasm and sense of urgency in wanting to play again so soon. After tonite, we have a huge 5 game homestand in which we must start making some hay if we are to get into position for a playoff run. With all the other teams still having 3-5 games in hand, we need to win 7 or 8 points on this homestand to avoid falling too far behind. I think Kovy realizes that and wants to be the human momentum swing for this team after their potential turning point win vs St Louis.</p>
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		<title>By: World Be Free</title>
		<link>http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/2009/11/11/thrasher-math-101-statistics-and-projections/comment-page-2/#comment-14336</link>
		<dc:creator>World Be Free</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:57:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/?p=4572#comment-14336</guid>
		<description>A2B-let&#039;s hope he signs soon too.  It would be good to put this all behind us an concentrate on the team making playoffs.  There&#039;s alotta teams in the hunt this season.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A2B-let&#8217;s hope he signs soon too.  It would be good to put this all behind us an concentrate on the team making playoffs.  There&#8217;s alotta teams in the hunt this season.</p>
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		<title>By: Dwayne</title>
		<link>http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/2009/11/11/thrasher-math-101-statistics-and-projections/comment-page-2/#comment-14335</link>
		<dc:creator>Dwayne</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:26:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/?p=4572#comment-14335</guid>
		<description>I love scotch. Scotchy, scotch, scotch. Here it goes down, down into my belly... Ron Burgandy</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I love scotch. Scotchy, scotch, scotch. Here it goes down, down into my belly&#8230; Ron Burgandy</p>
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		<title>By: Spud Webb</title>
		<link>http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/2009/11/11/thrasher-math-101-statistics-and-projections/comment-page-2/#comment-14334</link>
		<dc:creator>Spud Webb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:24:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.ajc.com/iceman-thrashers-blog/?p=4572#comment-14334</guid>
		<description>Brendan, I vote for you to buy out levenson and take over acting GM, PLEASE? I&#039;ve got like $23.67 to give to your cause. 
All excellent points!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brendan, I vote for you to buy out levenson and take over acting GM, PLEASE? I&#8217;ve got like $23.67 to give to your cause.<br />
All excellent points!</p>
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