Familiarity Breeds…Success?

This past weekend I, along with a handful of other Atlanta Thrashers bloggers, received an e-mail from Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski requesting a quote…one or two lines… that he could use in an upcoming story he’s doing. He was looking for a couple comments regarding what we’d be looking for from the Thrashers this coming season.

Here is my reply to his inquiry:

“I look for the Thrasher to avoid the type of slow start that plagued them the past two seasons. With so many returning cast members from the team that played so well last spring, I think they’ll avoid the “getting to know you” phase this fall”.

Now, as I said, Greg asked for just one or two lines only from us to help with his piece…but I thought I’d expound on my comment here.

Peverley Kovalchuk and White will reunite to try and build upon last springs success

Peverley, Kovalchuk and White will reunite to try and build upon last spring's success, (AP photo/Gregory Smith)

As you’ll recall, the Thrashers finished off last season on a rather high note. They played to a winning record in the second half of the season and made life hard on a couple of teams that were in the thick of playoff battles down the stretch. During that time, residents of Thrasherville were treated to some of the best hockey they’ve seen in many, many moons.

What makes all that even more exciting, in my viewpoint, is that there are so many of that squad that will be returning once the team reassembles for training camp, preseason and, in just 33 more days, the drop of the puck on yet another NHL season. For the Thrashers, it will be their tenth such campaign.

Given the current roster, here is what I have oft opined as my possible opening-day lineup:

Kovy – Peverley – Antropov
Kozlov – White – Little
Kane/Stewart/Crabb – Reasoner – Armstrong
Boulton – Slater – Thorburn

Hainsey – Kubina
Enstrom – Bogosian
Valabik – Oystrick/Salmela

Lehtonen
Hedberg

Of those 23 players listed that could make up the possible 20-man lineup on October 3, nineteen of them were with Atlanta last spring…seventeen were with the team on opening night. Peverley arrived in January, Salmela at the trade deadline, Kane drafted in June while Antropov, Kubina and Stewart were acquired since July 1.

Thus, I just don’t think it is too far of a stretch to believe that last spring’s play can…and will…translate to a better start of a season than what we’ve witness in these parts over the past two years. Such familiarity among the players can only be helpful in bringing about a certain measure of success.

This time last year there were still some big question marks hanging over the heads of some of the new-comers to the team. Armstrong and Christensen, brought over from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline in March of the previous season, were beginning their first full season with the squad.

Armstrong worked out just fine…Christensen, not so much.

Centerman Marty Reasoner was a big success…Jason Williams was reluctant to buy into John Anderson’s style of play, was a major disappointment and, come January, was gone.

Rookie Zach Bogosian lived up to his billing as the third overall draft pick in the summer of 2008…Mathieu Schneider, acquired via trade from Anaheim, just didn’t work out.

The more question marks there are going into a season…the greater the likelihood that they’ll be problems. Right now, the biggest questions that I see regarding the players is…1). How successful will the addition of Antropov to Kovy’s line be?…2). Can Kubina help turn the Thrashers Swiss cheese defense into something a little more respectable?…3). Will Evander Kane play his way into the lineup…not just for a couple games but I mean for the duration of the season?

Those issues are a far cry better than the ones that hung over the team a year ago.

Also, Thrashers players will begin play in what will be coach Anderson’s second year behind Atlanta’s bench. These guys understand what their roles in his system and, most importantly, buy into it and seem to very comfortable with the parts they play in it. There won’t be a learning curve during October and November.

To that point, Todd White recently stated in an interview with Chris Vivlamore, “The biggest problem at the beginning of last year is I didn’t think we had 20 guys that wanted to [commit to the system]. On any given night we had guys reverting back to the way the team used to play, as opposed to the end of the year, when we were all committed to doing what we were supposed to do. The best teams play a system and stick to it. All five guys on the ice are committed to it. That’s how you have success in this league.”

So, there will be a fair amount of familiarity in the Thrashers’ lineup and behind the bench. Familiarity that should…knocking wood… help to breed success.

216 comments Add your comment

Toby

September 2nd, 2009
11:29 am

RDS (yes…I know not a great source) has Luongo signing a 12 year contract for $5.25 per

http://www.rds.ca/hockey/chroniques/281577.html

GaVaHokie

September 2nd, 2009
11:41 am

Only in Fantasyland. They already have cap problems. They’re not going to be able to fit those in under the cap and still be able to afford other players like Green.

Alan… not in the ‘10-’11 season they don’t… they’ll have a lot of RFA’s, but I’m sure they’d do what they have to.

http://nhlnumbers.com/overview.php?team=WAS&season=0910

GaVaHokie

September 2nd, 2009
11:48 am

Smoothie… I posed the question to some Preds fans on Hockeybuzz… we’ll see what they say.

Alan

September 2nd, 2009
12:01 pm

they’ll have a lot of RFA’s, but I’m sure they’d do what they have to.

A lot of talented RFAs. RFAs that will be kept. You’re living in a Capitals-coated dreamworld if you think Washington will have any chance at bringing in Kovalchuk and his salary, let alone attracting the attention of Zherdev or Kozlov.

$33.7m tied up in 10 players. Players like Semin and Backstrom are going to command nice raises. Washington has no chance. I believe you know this in the back of your mind, but are attempting to create conversation nonetheless.

Mission accomplished?

It’s still a horrible assessment of Washington’s situation, and at the very least, a very bad joke. :P

[...] Bill Tiller, The Iceman from AJC says … "I look for the Thrashers to avoid the type of slow start that plagued them the past two seasons. With so many returning cast members from the team that played so well last spring, I think they’ll avoid the ‘getting to know you’ phase this fall." [...]

ranallo10 (in AT)

September 2nd, 2009
12:04 pm

The only player coming off their books next season that could help them lockup one of the mentioned Russians would be Theodore, whose $4.5M contract will expire at the conclusion of this season.

Otherwise they will be re-signing Backstrom and Semin, and wont be left with much room to fill out their defense (3 UFAs, 1 RFA) and find a goalie in the even Varlamov doesn’t reproduce his 2009 postseason success.

Sara

September 2nd, 2009
12:04 pm

Keep in mind that the role of the 3rd line can always be changed. It’s been known to happen that a team is so deep in talent that 1st-2nd liners on most teams become 3rd-4th liners on others (*cough* Detroit *cough*). I mean, how is having players of the calibre of Pevs and Army on the 3rd line a “bad” thing? Coach can spread out the minutes, roll the lines. Keeps guys fresher anyway.

Geez – you people act like you’ve never seen roster depth before. :p

GaVaHokie

September 2nd, 2009
12:14 pm

Alan… I hear ya… And I didn’t say anything about Kozlov. ;)

Just thinking you could see a Detroit situation where guys take longer term contracts with less money to play in a competitive market. Would Kovy take a 10 year contract at $6 million per to play with Ovechkin… probably not… I don’t see him taking a back seat to Ovechkin, especially for less money.

GaVaHokie

September 2nd, 2009
12:15 pm

Ranallo… they could always go after Ilya Nikulin. ;)

World Be Free

September 2nd, 2009
12:19 pm

Furman / Kessel
I think they are avoiding Kessel because of the compensation to Boston.

We could move Peverly to 3rd line, Marty to 4th line and Slater to the KHL. Just a sugegstion.

GaVaHokie

September 2nd, 2009
12:20 pm

I mean, how is having players of the calibre of Pevs and Army on the 3rd line a “bad” thing? Coach can spread out the minutes, roll the lines. Keeps guys fresher anyway.

Exactly the point I was trying to make… by adding Pevs to the third line, you pretty much changed the whole identity of that line from a “defense first” line to a third option “scoring threat”… same if they gave Kane that spot.

Sara

September 2nd, 2009
12:29 pm

WBF – generally speaking I’m a Slater fan but I have to admit your last post made me seriously LOL. Had I inhaled a beverage at that moment, I would have been spending my lunch hour at Office Depot hunting a new keyboard.

ranallo10 (in AT)

September 2nd, 2009
12:47 pm

Hokie — Stop winking at me please, it’s kinda creepy.

Brendan

September 2nd, 2009
1:06 pm

If Nikki Zherdev is SERIOUSLY contemplating a move to the Atlanta Thrashers next season, with Kovy’s approval, on a 1-year deal, I say that’s something of a “no-brainer.” It won’t affect next year’s cap, if it turns out to be a disaster. And if it works, Waddell could even enter into contract negotiations with Zherdev on January 1st.

As for the line configurations, and I’m always hesitant to make these kinds of posts as I really see line combinations as something in flux anyway, I trust John Anderson’s ability to decide what it is best. That said, with a gun to my head, I’d put Zherdev on the top line with Kovy on the Left and Bryan Little in the middle. I know. I know. You folks want Little with Kozlov. And that’s fine, too. But in my view, Bryan Little is our best center and would be an excellent pivot for Kovy and Zherdev. My second line would then be Kozlov on the LW, Antropov on the RW, with Todd White in the middle. That’s not a bad second line. On the 3rd line, I like Reasoner on the left, Armstrong on the right, and the Pevs dispenser in the middle. The 4th line is Boulton, centered by Slater, and Thorburn on the right.

But what about Kane???, I hear you cry. The guy is 18. EIGHTEEN. By about a month now. In a league full of grown men. It won’t kill him to return to Juniors, if he’s not ready. It should be a PARTY of a season for him there. In 2010-11, there could be plenty o’roster spots available. Kozlov could be gone. As could Kovy and the very hypothetical Zherdev, too. Heck, even Bryan Little isn’t completely safe from an RFA offersheet, come July 1, 2010. Especially if he pots 35 goals. Which is why I encourage a PROACTIVE deal now. While the price is still reasonable.

Stop. What if the Thrashers made Little the top line center? Think he won’t score 30 goals? He might score 40. Especially if Zherdev is on RW. Even Antropov isn’t going to be that bad for Little’s production, if the top line is Kovy, Little and Antropov.

World Be Free

September 2nd, 2009
1:08 pm

Sara-you know what I feel about Slater. All that aside, moving Pevs to 3rd and Marty to 4th (assuming we sign abouter NHL ready player) would give us 4 excellent lines.

GaVa-agreed, I hope we allow Kane 1 more year of juniors. I think he needs it to ensure his development.

Smoothie

September 2nd, 2009
1:09 pm

Sara and folks –

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for having quality depth, but I’m just a little skittish about relegating a talented guy like Peverley to a checking line role when he has shown flashes of brilliance and seems to possess the 2-way game we need on our top line. However, if the third line dynamic were to change and they are not always matched up vs the other team’s top line as a shutdown line, I’m all for it. Army and Pevs already have good chemistry and you can see that Marty has a sneaky good set of hands and would probably love playing with 2 guys who can actually finish at the net as opposed to a munchkin and a stone-handed burner like Stuart.

ranallo10 (in AT)

September 2nd, 2009
1:14 pm

Brendan — I have relatively no problems with your opined lines, especially your statement of Little being the top center on the team (I agree), and Kane being too young to worry about a roster spot currently (I completely agree). The only issue I have is a technical one, Reasoner on the LW and Peverley the C for the third line.

Reasoner is the best faceoff man on the team. If there was some post-faceoff position changes, like I’ve proposed for the top line of Little/Antropov (and seen at the NHL level with teams like Detroit), and Reasoner/Peverley switch roles after the puck drops, I wouldn’t have a problem with Reasoner on the left boards. Such a tweak is where Anderson’s experience and knowledge greatly outshines my own, and I would entrust such a decision to him.

All I care about the upcoming season with regards to line combinations is that I don’t want to see a pure scorer playing in a checking role (Sterling) or a prospect playing “out of position” just to get him ice time (Sterling, Kane, Holzapfel).

Kenny

September 2nd, 2009
1:59 pm

Sounds like we are headed for another Lotto pick this year.

Kenny

September 2nd, 2009
2:00 pm

-Sounds like we are headed for another Lotto pick this year.

Kenny

September 2nd, 2009
2:01 pm

well it sounds like we are headed for another Lotto pick this year.

Kenny

September 2nd, 2009
2:02 pm

who should we get with this years lotto pick?

Kenny

September 2nd, 2009
2:03 pm

lotto pick again

Toby

September 2nd, 2009
2:03 pm

Thanks Kenny…heard (or read) ya the first time.

Kenny

September 2nd, 2009
2:03 pm

awesome, sounds like we are headed for another Lotto pick this year

Brendan

September 2nd, 2009
2:08 pm

I’m totally flexible, Ranallo. And I agree that … our best faceoff guys should be taking the lion’s share of the draws, whenever possible. Long time readers know I jumped for joy when Brett Sterling was drafted by Atlanta, as late as he fell in that draft. But wearing my “reality-colored” glasses, I’m now fine with Waddell packaging him in a deal that makes the team better. I still have some hope that Sterling can be a presence in the NHL, ideally with Atlanta, but it will be what it is. I’d also rather see Kane, like you, play where he should be properly developed. And that’s on the Top Six forward slots. I’m enjoying this potential crowding of roster spots.

What do I always say? “Competition makes a better product.” Let the boys battle for their ice time. Let John Anderson lead the way. I like Rich Peverley. I hope he re-signs with Atlanta in the offseason. I do see him as “Top Six” material. If, next season, there really is no Kovy, no Slava, and no Zherdev, EVER, then I truly do want to hold on to Rich Peverley, and not relegate him to 3rd line duty this year, where he’ll maybe be thinking, “I’m going where I can play more minutes” in my next contract. I, well, can’t blame him for that. Hopefully, Peverley will have a reason and desire to re-sign with Atlanta, down the road. I like Holzapfel and Machacek (Sp?). I’m not sure when they’ll be fully ready, however.

On the defensive side, I really want to mix it up. I want Enstrom and Bogosian playing top line minutes, with Kubina and Hainsey in the middle, with Valabik and Oystrick/Salmella on the third pairing. In net, however unpopular this might be to say, but I still see Kari Lehtonen as Atlanta’s best option this season, and next season. I welcome Pavelec to compete for, and win, the starting job. But, again, like Kane, if the guy’s not ready … then the guy’s not ready. I see no point to rushing either Kane or Pavelec. Ondrej is going to be a very good goalie down the road. He’s still very, very young. I certainly don’t want to see him traded. If Kari winds up being traded, I certainly understand that, given his frequent injuries and inconsistent mental preparation for games. I would find it very surprising for Manny Legace to wind up playing in Atlanta this season. And even if he did, Legace is not part of any longterm solution between the Atlanta pipes. When I think how the organization invested a 2nd overall pick in Lehtonen, I am hesitant to advocate his trade out of town. I’m fine with a re-signed Lehtonen as a backup to Pavelec, down the road.

GaVaHokie

September 2nd, 2009
2:15 pm

Kenny… Fail.

h

September 2nd, 2009
2:32 pm

here is how I’d like to see it:
Kovy – Peverly – Antropov
Zherdev – White – Little
Kozlov – Reasoner – Army
Boulton – Slater/Kane – Thorburn/Stewart/anyone else who can make team

If everyone gets “pushed down” by a Zherdev signing, someone on the 4th line should be the FIRST to get pushed out…..

R. Stroz

September 2nd, 2009
2:37 pm

Didn’t Cartman tell us Kenny was dead?

Sara

September 2nd, 2009
2:41 pm

ewwww *Trixie* someone threw up on the blog!!!!

R. Stroz

September 2nd, 2009
2:51 pm

On the Legace issue, I infer the following:

1) Lehtonen’s back isn’t healing at a very fast pace.

2) Pavelec’s knee isn’t healing very quickly from surgery either.

Looks like we have two Mr. Glass goaltenders.

Smoothie

September 2nd, 2009
2:54 pm

Custance tweeted just a little while ago that he did receive confirmation from the Thrashers that Legace was indeed invited to camp.

Perhaps a package deal of Pavs / White could be in the works for Dany Heatley…the return of the prodigal son. Break out the party streamers and pointy hats!

I keeeeed, I keeeeed!

World Be Free

September 2nd, 2009
2:56 pm

Hey thanks Kenny–you are making us all feel alot smarter.

lee

September 2nd, 2009
2:58 pm

hey guys, luongo extended his contract to 12 yrs! i think i might be sick of stayin’ with a team that long!

R. Stroz-haha thx (thanks), but really i can change it if u want! i’m really not that new, i just am really busy, so i don’t blog that often.

Hokie-oh, how stupid am i. sry bout that.

lee

September 2nd, 2009
2:59 pm

r. stroz- that’s dissapointing. but at least moosie is healthy! lehtonen went to my brother’s hospital about a month ago!

World Be Free

September 2nd, 2009
3:03 pm

Maybe that’s why they are looking at Fernandez (rumored)

Smoothie

September 2nd, 2009
3:04 pm

Stroz, I bet Pavy’s a$$hat of an agent has been acting up again since DWad signed Drew MacIntyre for some insurance / added competition in camp and presumably down in Chi-town.

lee

September 2nd, 2009
3:04 pm

hey guys, random question but is yahoo fanasty hockey worth signin’ up for?

lee

September 2nd, 2009
3:06 pm

smoothie-heck yeah, i wouldn’t be suprised if he was.

Larry M

September 2nd, 2009
3:09 pm

We are going to have Zherdev and Kovy for 1 year and then they are both going to bolt. ASG better just trade Kovy for Kessel right now so we can at least salvage something out of him before he pulls a Hossa on us.

Smoothie

September 2nd, 2009
3:15 pm

And why is that Larry? Because Kovy is so fond of Los Angeles and warm weather? If the Thrashers want to call Kovy’s bluff, than they should sign Zherdev to a multiple-year deal. If we are really that interested in him as a Kovy-retention device, then lock him up LT. At least that way you have some insurance if Kovy does bolt.

Larry M

September 2nd, 2009
3:21 pm

The Thrashers can’t sign Zherdev to a long term multi year deal. According to the article Zherdev is only interested in a 1 year contract with Atlanta. Why is that?

lee

September 2nd, 2009
3:26 pm

larry m-is zherdev really getting serious with the thrashers.

guys- is this peter mannino gonna make a start?

lee

September 2nd, 2009
3:31 pm

great thrashers article on yahoo.

go to yahoo sports, then NHL, it’s the cover article. (that’s a first)

a bush league

September 2nd, 2009
3:59 pm

Just read the yahoo article and didn’t realize that the reason they were getting rid of Belkin was so they could restructure and sell the Thrashers.

lee

September 2nd, 2009
4:21 pm

a bush league- well, yes, that is a possibility but it is not certain, though it is dissapointing.

Alan

September 2nd, 2009
4:21 pm

From the article:

So it’s possible that new investors would enable the group to restructure ownership and streamline each property, and it’s possible the Thrashers could eventually be put up for sale (rumors say they are now, but they’ve been refuted). It’s also possible, if not probable, that the status quo will go on for an indefinite amount of time.

Conjecture at its finest. This isn’t journalism. Gotta sell ad space somehow, though, eh?

Keep frothing, citizens of Hamilton. Sillyballs isn’t bringing the Thrashers to your backyard.

Smoothie

September 2nd, 2009
4:22 pm

http://twitter.com/CraigCustance

Perhaps there has been some casual flirting but no serious overtures at this point apparently. Still think Z will want more money than the Thrashers could afford (in upwards of $2 – 2.5 M) so again I believe deep inside that this is just a young 24 y/o getting his hopes up because Kovy said that there might be room at the inn.

A27

September 2nd, 2009
4:32 pm

Smoothie, who knows whats going on with Zherdev as far as a contracts go. But one thing is for sure he want’s to play here, unlike Malhotra and that mean’s somthing to me. I really hope he sign’s here and I think he will.

laurie

September 2nd, 2009
4:35 pm

“According to the article Zherdev is only interested in a 1 year contract with Atlanta. Why is that?”

My guess is that its because the Thrashers aren’t willing to pay him what he thinks he’s worth (which was reported to be between $4-4.5m in NY). But he’s running out of time to find a job, so he’s willing to take less for one year and hope a banner year playing with Kovalchuk nets him a bigger, long-term payday next summer.

GaVaHokie

September 2nd, 2009
4:40 pm

And Zherdev can’t be posturing to get more money from the KHL because I’m pretty sure he already has a deal with Russia… correct me if I’m wrong.