Which White Will We Witness This Season?
If I would have told you a year ago that Todd White would account for 73 points in the upcoming season, chances are you would have laughed me clear out of the blogosphere. He was coming off a very lackluster 14 goal, 23 assist performance in his first season in Atlanta and his soft play…most notibly on the defensive side of the ice…earned him the nickname “Charmin” around these parts.
Prior to his arrival in Thrasherville, in the two seasons he played with the Minnesota Wild, White scored 19 goals and 40 points during 61 games as well as 13 goals and 44 points in 77 games. He was a -1 and +8 in his two years there as well. In fact, heading into last season, the most productive year Whitey ever enjoyed in his NHL career was in 2002-03 when he netted 25 goals and 35 assists for 60 points while playing for the Ottawa Senators. He was a +19 that season.
So as you can see, to have predicted such an effort from White…espcially playing for a team that was coming off a 76-point effort the season prior…would have gotten you some very long odds in Vegas.
However, to his credit, that’s exactly what he did.
Todd White's career-high 73 points were almost double that of the previous season (AP Photo Gregory Smith)
He began the year centering the team’s second line with the veteran Slava Kozlov to his left and the youngster Bryan Little to his right. For the first half of the season that was the most productive and reliable line the Thrashers put out there. He and Little finished off the season with Kaptain Kovy on the top line. The 22 goals last year were not tops for White, however his 51 assists and 73 overall points were.
But the big question that I have about the 5′-10″. 195-pound native of Kanata, ON is…which Todd White are we more likely to see this season?
The one that surprised us all with the career-high 73 points or more of last year?
The one that was all but invisible on the ice two seasons ago?
Or, and this is what I believe…something in between?
Remember, last season was a “career” year…and one such campaign does not necessarily guarantee a follow-up performance at the same level. Certainly I don’t think we’ll see the pedestrian numbers that he put up in his first season in a Thrashers uniform, but I can’t say I’m quite as confident that he’ll match…or top… last year’s either.
Of course, much of that could depend on where he spends his time in the lineup. If the Thrashers don’t make any other major moves to acquire another forward, I would think we would see White, Kozlov and Little form the team’s second line again…and that would be just fine with me. If that is the case, then I think White and that line can be very productive once again.
For the record, I’d like to see Peverley playing the pivot between Kovy and Antropov on the first line.
However, if certain rumors are true and Atlanta brings in, say, Nikolai Zherdev…then that would shuffle things around on the top two lines. Kovy, Antropov and Zherdev could very well be your first line…then the second line could be something like Kozlov, Peverley and Little. If so, then White might be playing down with Reasoner and Armstrong. Is that any way to reward a player’s career year?
Now, some might say to leave White between Little and Kozlov…then place Peverley on the third line. But I think that would really be a waste of Pevs abilities.
Besides, either way you go with that, where would you play Evander Kane? In either scenario, your answer would have to be…Vancouver.
Now please don’t misunderstand me, none of this is at all meant to be a slam on Todd White and I’m certainly not trying …ahem…put the squeeze…ahem… on the player formerly known as Charmin. Like I said prior, I do not believe we’ll see a return to the 2007-09 type of numbers for him. But I’m also skeptical of seeing 73 again as well…though I’d love to be wrong.
Given all that, I’ll throw this matter out to you placing the over/under line on his total point production this coming season at…65.
Look…It’s Rawhide In Russian!
I was recently “cyber-interviewed” by Vadim Kuznetsov who writes for Tribuna.Sports.Ru…and here is the link to his writeup. I warn you though, it’s in Russian. So maybe our friend and frequesnt contributer “Russian” might help us out with the translation, eh?
Anyway, the subject matter includes this summer’s moves by the team, Kovalchuk’s re-signing and how I think the team will do this season.
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149 comments Add your comment
Smoothie
August 30th, 2009
4:05 pm
The Thrashers were bad in White’s first season, no doubt. But keep in mind, they actually clawed their way to within a couple of pts of first before the trade deadline.
White’s soft play (hence the nickname) and tentative decision making were big reasons for the team’s struggles. He often failed to get his stick on the ice for one-timers and he was Slater-esque with his finishing at the net.
Yes, the team was very flawed (atrocious D and very little scoring from the blueline) and injuries to Kozlov, Hossa (and his reluctance to drive the net), and White really hampered the offense down the stretch.
But anyone who followed this team closely could tell that White was having a hard time adapting to his new environment. I give a lot of credit to JA’s system (and White’s willingness to buy in readily) in helping White build confidence and use his skills more effectively.
The system gave White more chances to be creative but also relied heavily on White, Pevs, Reasy and Slater to backcheck and utilize speed to thwart counter-attacks. If White slows down at all, he may struggle to be as productive this coming season.
Rawhide
August 30th, 2009
4:20 pm
EOB – Points of clarification taken…thanks. To the question of your opinion being justified…well, I think your points of contention are indeed reasonable and well stated.
Actually, you and I are probably more on the same page here than not. I think you are correct in saying that there is indeed a difference between this situations he was in while playing for the Wild and the Sens…for that matter, here as well. I also think you are correct in the perception that if he is around 60-ish points this season, that he had a good year. Which is why I set the over/under where I did.
Where I think I might differ with you, however is…if I am reading you correctly…you seem to be saying that White’s down numbers his first year here were a product of his surroundings soley. While I can understand the reasoning with that…my personal observation is that it was more due to his play .
Now…to that point…I have to admit that Todd White was the last person on the team that I thought would have a career season last year. No way on earth I saw that coming and it was a very pleasant surprise. This is why I chose to word my White writeup in the fashion I did. Not to slam him by saying “last year was a fluke”, but to get the discussion rolling… (get it…”roll”ing)…about what people might be expecting out of him this season.
Again…I hope he repeats last year’s 73 points. But, like you, I don’t expect it. However, that does not mean I’ll be disappointed with him if he produces, say, in the low-to-mid 60s…given his overall career history and the role he plays on this team.
Curly
August 30th, 2009
4:45 pm
Rawhide – Thanks for the welcome. I’m a frequent reader (lurker)… rarely post.
To answer your question. I’ll take the “Over” on Todd White. I see no reason he should not equal his performance and point total from last year; pending injury of course.
Ernest Hemingway – I’ll take Brendan’s posts as they are. I enjoy reading his posts. They’re ……. GREAT!
World Be Free
August 30th, 2009
5:50 pm
Thanks for your thoughts on Malholtra-I simply just wonder where he is and why his name has not surfaced anywhere?!
Bill, do you have ANYTHING on Malholtra, whether it has to do with Atlanta or not? Even Comrie is the source of rumors there days, Malholtra is a better player all around than Comrie.
It just does not make any sense.
Lee
August 30th, 2009
6:01 pm
Hokie, I wasn’t tryin to say that he wasn’t gonna come him because of the big offer just that he’s being smart and wait for another offer. How can u not say he doesn’t want money? Of course he does just lik any other hockey player. Sure, he wants a good team that will win but if u turn down an offer that big, don’t u think he is going for money?
Anywayz that’s just my opinion. Hokie, I’m not tryin to say ur wrong.
Hey, anyone excited for NHL 10? Heck I am and it may seem weird but I can’t wait!
Rawhide
August 30th, 2009
6:15 pm
Bill, do you have ANYTHING on Malholtra, whether it has to do with Atlanta or not?
WBF – Uh….hmmmm…no. I got nuthin’ on Malholtra. That story seems to have vanished quicker than my cousin’ Cleatus when the dinner check arrives.
ben
August 30th, 2009
6:54 pm
does anyone have any heatley news? has he actually been traded?
World Be Free
August 30th, 2009
7:08 pm
BT-Thanks
With so many news outlets there, you’d think somebody had some news on the guy.
lee
August 30th, 2009
7:13 pm
tiller, haha i don’t think manny is really into the thrashers, hey, hes welcome but he really isn’t buyin much. cleatus a hockey fan or a more of a dinner check guy?
ben, no nuthin, but he hasn’t been traded because of his sloppy attitude and playing, no one really wants him and i don’t blame them. heatley is a star player, but he’s not the star player with a good attitude, he’s no crosby or kovy he just frankly nothing to go crazy bout. all lot of controversy has gone on with the snyder incident and the suckish playing hes been doing. and really no one really has the money to be pay for his expensive ticket when he doesn’t play that desent. he’s kinda like a brett farve. so with that said, theres really no news and don’t expect any fora while becuase he’s just sittin in no man’s land.
lee
August 30th, 2009
7:15 pm
WBF-hav u tried those other bloggers that sara listed earlier? they probably hav some.
ben
August 30th, 2009
7:30 pm
lee, i agree, but i thought there’d be some taker.
lee
August 30th, 2009
7:44 pm
ben, oh im sure there r takers, it’s just that he is not gonna get payed as much and the team isn’t gonna make a big deal bout it.
lee
August 30th, 2009
7:49 pm
ben, also if there r takers, they r not going to try to find a 5 or 6 million deal. the ppl that may be considering heatley rn’t that serious like the ppl that want mats sundin. at the max im thinking heatly MIGHT get a 3 or 4 million if that! he’s really not worth much anymore.
Thrashers27
August 30th, 2009
7:52 pm
I can tell it’s a rainy afternoon in Thrasherville…everybody is home blogging…and judging by some of the sentence structures, clearly drinking. Thanks for keeping me entertained while I’m at work Thrashers fans!
I’m dying for some hockey. Can’t wait for that small fix next week.
lee
August 30th, 2009
7:54 pm
DROP THE PUCK ALREADY!!!!!!!! ARAGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!
lee
August 30th, 2009
7:56 pm
thrashers27-haha,yeah, whats better than blogging and havin a drink on a rainy day? so am i, even the preseason games keep me on the edge of my seat.
The Earl of Bud
August 30th, 2009
8:43 pm
GaVaHokie, thanks for that bit on Kozlov’s shoulder, I forgot about that. Another year of a healthy Kozlov should be good for Todd White.
BT, yeah I think we are closer as well. I am actually going to change my number. Last year Todd White got 38 ES points and 34 PP points (and 1 SHG) for 73 points. As I wrote earlier, his PP TOI is going to drop significantly with Antropov coming and more defensemen playing the point, thus possibly moving Kovalchuk down low. So let’s say he gets 14 PPP instead of 34, that means he will be the exact same player talent wise but get 53 points instead of 73. I really think that is going to happen.
With that said, I don’t want people moaning when Todd White’s total goes down because of this. The same thing happened when in 07-08 Enstrom had 26 PP points with 5:44 of PP TOI/G. Last year he only got 14 PP points with only 3:18 PP TOI/G and that 3:18 average was much lower in the beginning of the year. Everyone complained about a sophomore slump because he wasn’t producing like his rookie year but nothing could be further from the truth. He took the role of a top pair defenseman with Bogosian heading into this season although on paper his stats were lower.
So yeah, we are going to see a much lower Todd White output this year but it will only be due to a loss in PP TOI. I imagine he will make up that TOI playing shorthanded more often. And you certainly won’t get that many points playing on the PK.
Alex
August 30th, 2009
8:49 pm
Good interview Rawhide..In the title it says “Questions answered by The Atlanta-Journal Constitution Columnist- Bill Tiller” I also agree- Anderson-coach of the year and Kovalchuk-MVP if Thrashers make playoffs this year.
Lee- What is so exciting about NHL 10? It’s basically the same as NHL09, only fighting and boards play are new…BTW what platform U play it on?
Dwayne
August 30th, 2009
8:53 pm
Over on that 65 Bill, mark it down. Kovy will have a huge year with White and Antro. Here is my logic on this, Kovy is on a contract year, he will have the big “C” on his chest for all year, he asked for help, I believe he has it now. Russian talked about pride from Russian players, lets see it from start to finish. Pevs centering Little and Kozzy will be fine. To me, all 4 lines are what they need to be, its all about the “D” and Stendecs favorite goalie….Kari.
lee
August 30th, 2009
8:57 pm
alex,haha thats the respond i always get. well i think it has pretty good graphics, but really im not that big of a gamer, certainly not like a teenager, but i do hav a 360 with my son.
ah, well im a lot more excited bout real hockey than nhl 10.
Rawhide
August 30th, 2009
9:24 pm
Alex - Thanks.
Lee – Cousin Cletus is…uh…he’s kinda…well, er ah…ummm…Cletus is sort of…oh, just look here for yourself.
GaVaHokie
August 30th, 2009
10:08 pm
EOB… Peverley had some slumps in Nashville. Granted he was buried in the roster, but the reason he was put on waivers by Nashville was so he could get his confidence back in the minors… so I would think he’s prone to some slumps.
Smoothie
August 30th, 2009
10:08 pm
If Todd White can dish out more than 50 assists again, then perhaps the Thrashers actually win more than 40 gms
Viking
August 30th, 2009
11:37 pm
Thrashers27, I think the rainy day and beer has affected more than the sentence structure and frequency of comments.
Acronyms in abundance and caps only used when SCREAMING. Is this what we are looking forward to when texting been around for some more years? U, r and gms for you, are and games are making some of you guy’s comments tougher to follow for the unitintiated.
Sadtoseeitthisway
August 31st, 2009
1:19 am
I think we`ve seen the best of Todd White this past season. We can title it My Career Year”. Todd was eager to sign when he did. Why? Because we gave him by far the best offer he received at that time.
Hijacker
August 31st, 2009
6:33 am
White’s career peaks were 50, 60 and 73 points. You have a five year window between his highest totals. You probably guessed it. I don’t think that White will repeat last season or build upon it. One should expect a normal Todd White season in 2009-10 which translates to 40 to 50 points (sans injuries.)
I expect Peverely to come back to earth as well. Maybe he’ll score around 45 points.
carolina fan
August 31st, 2009
8:13 am
I saw some posts of the Tanguay signing with Tampa Bay. It isn’t so much Alex lining up with Vinny down there (which is bad enough) but now St Louis can play with Stamkos again. They were an incredible pair over the last half of the season. Not sure which line Malone will play on but the Lightning will have two superb lines going. If they don’t have to use 20+ defensemen again this year (not likely) they will be tough to match up against.
GaVaHokie
August 31st, 2009
8:22 am
Todd was eager to sign when he did. Why? Because we gave him by far the best offer he received at that time.
What were the other offers?
Nikita
August 31st, 2009
9:07 am
I don’t understand why normal Todd White is a bad thing, though. Todd White is our best all-around player since…um…that guy I hate. He is not an elite player like that guy I hate, but he is a very good player, and on a team that didn’t play like ours did last year, he’d be one in a set of core players around which you’d build your success.
He brings all the prized attributes, such as work ethic and two-way responsibility, and is an asset to the team in terms of how he affects morale and the example he sets. If he only brings in 50 points next year, then that’s still a bargain for what we paid him, and it also doesn’t reflect his contributions on special teams.
…I don’t think he’ll repeat. Not because I don’t think he’s capable, but because I expect the rest of the team to improve enough to compensate. But a normal level of production would still be a great asset to the team.
Midfield
August 31st, 2009
9:39 am
Nikita, Todd is not universally accepted because ASG and Waddell lauded his acquisition as the first line center acquisition for a contender level play, and he obviously is not. So, he is taking the brunt for the lying liars ASG and DW. Excuse me for writing it out like that. Also, when the rest of the team improves, normally individual production over the course of the season goes up, not down, because just a handful of guys do not have to carry the water all by themselves – the minutes are spread optimally, the legs are fresher, more PP time rather than PK time, etc, etc.
World Be Free
August 31st, 2009
9:46 am
Don’t know if you have all noticed, but Paul Kelley and Pat Flatley are no longer with the players’ union. This type of instability does not bode well for the next player/owner bargaining.
Is anotgher lockout in our future?
BT-suggest you take a look at this one. This would be a blog subject that would bring out some interesting fan reactions!
Heck with the cap going lower-no need for a cap if there is no season.
Rawhide
August 31st, 2009
9:52 am
Todd is not universally accepted because ASG and Waddell lauded his acquisition as the first line center acquisition for a contender level play, and he obviously is not. So, he is taking the brunt for the lying liars ASG and DW
Midfield – Great point. This is one of the reasons I feel that many fans were so upset with his play in 2007-08. There was a lot of “THIS is what they consider a top-line center”? and “How much are we paying for this guy” going on at Philips Arena.
Last season he plays the majority of the year on the second line and plays very, very well and gains some deserved credit.
It’s an expectations game, I guess.
WBF – Thanks for the tip-off. I had not seen that…very interesting indeed.
GaVaHokie
August 31st, 2009
10:09 am
It’s a Catch 22… Waddell doesn’t believe Kovalchuk needs an Elite Center because he creates his own chances… however, SOMEONE has to play Top Line Center. That’s not White’s fault… but kudos to Todd White for stepping up and producing more points than Vinny Lecavalier, Patrick Marleau, Jonathan Toews and Anzi Kopitar… to name a few.
The Earl of Bud
August 31st, 2009
10:25 am
GVH, everyone wants Kovalchuk to have that elite center. But I read it a few places last year where people would say if Kovalchuk is scoring 40-50 goals a year (#2 and #4 in the league the last two years) it’s not like if you get him an elite center all of a sudden he is going to score 95 goals/year. So it isn’t as much a catch-22 other than you have to ask, how many more goals is Kovalchuk really going to score if he gets that elite center? Maybe 10 more max?
Another question when talking about this is if anyone can name who the elite centers are that guys like Rick Nash, Jarome Iginla, Shane Doan, Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek, etc. have played with.
Brendan
August 31st, 2009
10:44 am
Part of assessing Todd White, this upcoming season, will depend on his role and minutes played. With the “no brainer” understanding that the more minutes White plays, the greater opportunity he has to get closer to his career-best 73-points. If Todd White were to be used in the same manner as the previous season, I’m thinking he’ll get 65-points or more. If he isn’t, then he won’t. And his numbers will also depend on good health.
If, say, Evander Kane makes the team and plays 3rd line minutes, his point production probably won’t place him in “Calder Trophy candidacy.” Which then will make pundits across the league, who pay no attention to this team, (Dave Reid, of OTF, I’m looking at you,) say that Kane had a “disappointing” year. Thud. Shaking my head. Moving on.
With respect to White and Kane, and well ALL the other Thrasher players, we must trust the judgement of John Anderson to decide what is BEST for the team he coaches. It seems crazy to remove capable players from situations where they’d likely succeed. But “stupid is … as stupid does,” right Forest? We’ll just have to see how it all plays out. If Kane earns a roster spot, and White falters, then I expect to see Kane playing those 2nd line minutes.
Sadtoseeitthisway, Todd White could have pulled a Manny M. on the Wadster. Meaning? He could have waited a while longer, shopping around for what other offers came his way. Instead, he took the deal right away. Stop for a minute, okay? Imagine you’re a UFA. You didn’t re-sign with your last club. Or they didn’t offer to renew you. You’re in your late 20’s, and are arguably a Tier II guy, who can bounce between the 2nd and 3rd lines, but you BELIEEEEVE that you could do something significant, if you could find a team willing to give you 2nd line minutes. So, there you are. You’re nervous and anxious about what Free Agency will bring. You’re excited and hopeful that someone out there REALLY wants you, and will give you the break/opportunity you seek. You also know that you might be sitting there, un-signed, after the July 4th holiday, pushed further and further away from those 2nd lines minutes you sought, as budgets get filled and purse strings tighten up, league-wide. You also hope for some job security, with a 3-year deal.
Still with me? The Frenzy begins at 12 Noon. Before you can say, “Rumpelstiltskin,” Don Waddell has jumped all over you with a FOUR (4) year deal, giving you precisely the opportunity you sought, even with the prospect of playing with Hossa or Kovalchuk. For White, he’d seen enough, apparently. He inked it. He could have shopped around for 3 year deals that would have paid him nearly $9 million. The Salary Cap was exploding. The payscale was getting ridiculous. It went from $39 to $44, to $50.3, I think, by 2007. And it’s still growing, however marginally. The point is … Todd White could have waited. He could seen if a contending team would take him as a 3rd line center. He wanted to play 2nd line minutes and have decent linemates. He chose Atlanta to pursue those options. Nobody put a gun to his head. He chose us. In my view, that makes him a “good guy.” He would have received other offers. He signed by something like 1PM, on July 1, 2007.
R. Stroz
August 31st, 2009
10:49 am
capgeek.com has Tanguay signed with Tampa for one year at 2.5 million.
GaVaHokie
August 31st, 2009
10:50 am
EOB… exactly… and I would include Ovechkin in that list as well.
Of course, someone will fire back that none of those teams are winning Stanley Cups lately either.
GaVaHokie
August 31st, 2009
10:51 am
capgeek.com has Tanguay signed with Tampa for one year at 2.5 million.
This tells me there’s gotta be something to that injury issue.
… hopefully.
GaVaHokie
August 31st, 2009
10:58 am
So it isn’t as much a catch-22 other than you have to ask, how many more goals is Kovalchuk really going to score if he gets that elite center?
Who can I sign that can give me top line minutes, not screw up, won’t cost me a truck load of money, and can get the puck to my All Star winger?
Sara
August 31st, 2009
11:13 am
WBF – it seems the players are bracing themselves for a big fight. The two biggest fights are likely going to be over the length of contracts (think controversy over Hossa, Zetterberg, Pronger contracts) as well as player participation in the Olympics beyond 2010. The players also want some input into relocation and expansion decisions and apparently a larger percentage of revenue.
On the first two issues, I’d side with the players. I don’t mind the long contracts – teams should absolutely have the right to lock-up players they consider franchise guys as long as they want. Players have a right to the security of a long contract. And long-term contracts in particular for guys like Zetterberg and Ovechkin are going to make the fans happy (who here wouldn’t breathe a HUGE sigh of relief if Kovy signed a 10-year deal?) The negative implications of long-term contracts are well known to GMs and if they want to take that gamble (think NYI goalie for life), that’s their decision. I’m getting a little sick of the League constantly trying to save GMs and owners from themselves, when clearly many of them do not wish to be saved. And if GMs like Holland or Holmgren are savvy enough to creatively structure these contracts (the League’s big beef), then good for them. It frankly makes sense to front-load long contracts. When you break-down the annual salaries, odds are good that each year represents market value for a given player at a certain age and point in career. And if they are potentially undervalued, well, that’s the player’s choice. If someone wants to take less money, so be it. Why would the League oppose that? Plus all 30 teams can make those types of contracts if they choose, so it’s not like it’s an unfair advantage.
I’m also all for player participation in the Olympics. That’s a major source of pride for many of these guys and my impression is that’s whole-heartedly supported by the players. That’s not a fight I think the NHL should be picking.
As for the other issues – screw the players. They make more than enough money and I have zero sympathy for any arguments for more $$. I also think they have no place in determining the placement of franchises – while Bettman and the League do not always make all the best decisions, they likely have a much better team to look at the financial viability of franchises than the players are going to. If left to the players, how many would have voted for an Atlanta or Carolina franchise? Maybe not even a Dallas franchise. And Canada cannot support an unlimited amount of NHL franchises no matter what the fans or media up there think.
The Earl of Bud
August 31st, 2009
11:13 am
Yeah, I was going to include Ovy, but Ovechkin at least has Backstrom who puts up some points. But then you gotta ask how well would that kid have developed if he was dishing to Miro Satan instead of Alex Ovechkin.
Perhaps Waddell did this analysis and figured the money would be better spent on Campbell for the blueline. That didn’t work, so he saved the money and got the next best option in Hainsey.
kracker
August 31st, 2009
11:53 am
GAVA – “Who can I sign that can give me top line minutes, not screw up, won’t cost me a truck load of money, and can get the puck to my All Star winger?”
I’m sure hoping that’s Peverley.
Smoothie
August 31st, 2009
12:11 pm
EOB – wasn’t White signed the summer before Hainsey?
Smoothie
August 31st, 2009
12:14 pm
Miiiissss-TERRRRRRR PEVERLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEY! Said in a booming Mr. Kennedy (of WWE fame) voice over the loud-speaker at Philips Arena.
That would be a sweet way for Shaffee to announce Rich as he skates onto the ice as the # 1 Center on 10/3.
Toby
August 31st, 2009
12:31 pm
Peverlyyy….
Brendan
August 31st, 2009
12:53 pm
The front loaded contracts hurt smaller markets, that can’t afford them. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Phoenix wanted to offer Hossa the very same deal that Chicago did. Is Phoenix an unceasing flow of revenue stream, to be able to afford that? No, they’d feel the pinch of that front loaded contract. Badly. At least there’d be the lesser cap hit, that includes years for which Hossa very well may be retired. Which is worth investigating. But where is Phoenix supposed to get the money to front load that contract?
I like NHL players in the Olympics. The league won’t. They have to shut down for two weeks. It’s very disruptive to schedule and flow of the season, and the venues. But hey! It’s also a time for injured players to rest and recuperate. It helped Kari Lehtonen in 2006!
I would think, that from the league’s perspective, the goal ought to be 30 healthy franchises. Part of that … is giving those dozen or so clubs who can’t afford the floor of cap without revenue-sharing dollars … a healthy chance to compete for Top Tier talent out on the open market.
I won’t deny it for a second. I want the salary cap to come DOWN. I want back in the 40’s, so the Atlanta market can compete. And ideally, I’d like it to stay there. If a cap can grown from $39.0 million to $56.8 million in five years, what will it be five years from now? It could be over $70 million.
For people saying, so??? Guess who’s gonna pay for those increased dollars? Fans! Gate receipts. That’s where 76% of the revenue is generated. What if the cap gets to $70 million, by 2015? That means the FLOOR is $54 million. Said another way, “right about where the ceiling is now.” Can Atlanta even field a roster that APPROACHES $54 million???!!
Allllllriiiighteeeeee then. If there has to be a lockout to bring the price down, that’s disappointing. I don’t want to see that. In fact, all I think is really needed to remedy the situation … is to ACTUALLY DO what the lockout SAID it would. Namely, “to tie the cap to revenues.” In lean years, it goes down. It fat years, it goes up. But the “cooked books” of the NHL accountants allow them to fix the cap based on PROJECTED REVENUES instead of ACTUAL ones. Just do what is ACTUALLY IS, and everything will be just fine.
(Except that approach makes it difficult for the Red Wings to field the All-Star teams. Not to pick on them. It would make it difficult for any well-established, traditional NHL, big market city.)
Now, normally, I subscribe to the theory of “The gov’t that governs LEAST, governs BEST,” but in this case, I do think some rules should be in effect. How did the NHL get in TROUBLE, if not for GM’s and owners who let the marketplace spin wildly out of control? With limits, specifically spending limits, some markets would have payrolls up around $80 million. I’d say 10-years is a nice term-limit on duration for an RFA contract, with 8-years being the maximum limit for any UFA player under 32. In other words, say some Tier I guy is 34, I’d want the kaibosh put on some 10-year deal, that would pay him until he’s 44. That’s just cheating against smaller markets, like Phoenix, that can’t afford to front load a 10-year deal to acquire that player, even with the benefit of the lessened cap hit, artifically deflated by years during which the player will be retired. Everything about that deal reeks. Let’s say is 10-years/$50 million, but $40 million of it has to be paid in the first four (4) years of the contract. The last six years pay the player the remaining $10 million. While some people would jump up and down, “Hey, Phoenix can afford $5 million cap for a $10 million-a-year player!!” Yes, but the player stands there with his palm out, tapping his foot, for money you don’t really have. It’s crap. That player gets paid something like $1.66 million for play when he’s 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, and 44 years of age. Well, that just makes him easier to trade, right? To whom??? The player has one foot in the grave and the other on the golf course. Who wants to pick up the contract of a 39-year old, with six years left on it? Put those hands down. For the love of Pete. It’s a problem of “fairness” in a league that wants 30 healthy franchises. Well, if it wants 30 healthy franchises, it’s got to stop the rich from hoarding all the talent. The Rich stay healthy and the sick stay poor, is how, I think, that expression goes. If ya want the sick to get healthy, you got to give them some equal footing in the marketplace. A cap based on ACTUAL revenues and term-limits could help the bottom feeder teams. Like the Thrashers, for instance.
World Be Free
August 31st, 2009
12:57 pm
Sara-I agree with your points about the players, Olympics and length of contracts. The length of contract thing was initiated by management, not the players. I think both issues are small in relation to the most important labor issues-revenue sharing and the percentages receives each side receives. I would favor a soft cap, to allow teams to keep their star players in exchange for some type of commitment. Such a cap would reduce the number of players moving around. But then again, it might not.
The decision to moves teams should always be with the owners. Cities make investments to develop arenas and surrounding services to support teams. What qualifications do the players have to determine where a team should or should not be? If the players want a larger portion of the business side, then they need to put up some money. It’s like going to Vegas with someone else’s wallet.
Nikita
August 31st, 2009
1:00 pm
**Also, when the rest of the team improves, normally individual production over the course of the season goes up, not down, because just a handful of guys do not have to carry the water all by themselves – the minutes are spread optimally, the legs are fresher, more PP time rather than PK time, etc, etc.**
Sort of, but not necessarily. On a team that performs better, Todd White should see slightly fewer minutes, and maybe less PK minutes. But for example, if the team gets better and we add more guys who can contribute on the PP, meaning that Todd White sees more time on the PK and less on the PP, his points could go down substantially. Which is a real possibility, since we seem to have improved WRT the PP, but stayed the same or gotten worse re: the PK. I don’t see his minutes changing a lot, incidentally — he plays a slightly more than average number of minutes, but Anderson seems to determined to keep him healthy and relatively fresh.
re: Kovy and opportunities, he’s improving, but he still needs care and feeding, and his feeders need to be as defensively responsible as possible to compensate for his relatively lack of skill in that area. Which Todd White is. Also, Kovy likes Todd White and has made that clear numerous times — that should count for something. I don’t care which line he plays on, but it bears noting that the #1 Line guy is happy to have him on his.
Nikita
August 31st, 2009
1:00 pm
P.S. I should have said I don’t care which line as long as it’s #1 or #2. I don’t think Todd White can take the pounding he’d get on the checking or energy lines.
Bill Tiller (Rawhide)
August 31st, 2009
1:02 pm
100th!!! HA!!
Sorry…couldn’t resist.