Atlanta Hawks: Elite talent, not ‘Detroit model,’ still best path to title
Assuming the favored Heat beat the Celtics tomorrow and advance to the Finals, it will add to the mountain of evidence suggesting the best way to build a championship team is to acquire elite players.
Yeah, I know: radical statement. But before you lump me with Captain Obvious, remember it’s at odds with the “Detroit model” currently favored by the Hawks.
My view is that there are two kinds of NBA teams–those with top 10 players, and those without–and everything an organization does should be in an attempt to be the former rather than the latter. The Hawks’ view is that they can build a team with three not-quite-elite talents and keep knocking at the door until they become championship contenders.
That’s assuming the Hawks do have aspirations of winning an NBA championship, something that’s not always clear. The franchise often seems more preoccupied with dinging its critics and demanding credit for its successes (and there are many) than raising the bar. That perception is fueled by superficial-but-telling tendencies (such as statements boasting about making the playoffs) and the embrace of a team-building philosophy that rarely leads to a championship.
In a league where superstars contend for titles, the Hawks have tried to do it without one.
“It is going to be very hard for us to get that MVP candidate unless you pick one or two [in the draft],” Rick Sund said last summer. “Or unless you happen to have … free-agent money, to get one in free agency. It’s going to be tough, so we are going to have to do it the hard way.”
The Detroit model certainly is that.
There have been 62 NBA championship teams since 1950, and 57 those teams placed at least one player on one of the top two All-NBA teams in the season they won it. In fact, only 15 of those champions failed to have at least one player voted first team All-NBA (a third five-man All-NBA team was added starting with the 1988-89 season).
Furthermore, only 10 of 62 finals runner-up teams failed to have at least one player considered among the top 10 in the league. That means just 15 of 124 teams to make the finals — 12 percent — did so without a player voted to be among the league’s 10 best.
The Heat or Thunder would add to those totals while the Celtics would not. And chances are if Boston advances it’s because Kevin Garnett or Paul Pierce once again rekindle their form from the recent past and/or Rajon Rondo plays to the level that has him on track to reach top 10 status.
The Hawks tried to do build a contender the way the Thunder have done it. They executed the first part of the plan by getting bad enough to get a chance at a high draft pick and lucky enough to land one. The second and most important part, drafting the right players, didn’t go so well.
Making the wrong pick hurts, but it happens. Worse is that instead of cutting their losses and turning Marvin Williams et al into assets they could use to take a shot at acquiring an elite player, the Hawks doubled down. And instead of using Joe Johnson to acquire more assets (draft picks, relatively cheap and productive players, cap space) that hey could parlay into a top 10 player, the Hawks gave him the richest deal in the league.
Now the Hawks aren’t projected to have real cap space until after next season, by which time Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia could be gone, Johnson will be a year older and they’ll have no more than four players under contract. Tough to get an elite talent and complementary players with $15 million or so in cap space.
I understand the calls for a new coach as the answer with this group of Hawks. Sometimes, though, I think that’s the most popular thing because it’s easier to change coaches than acquire a top 10 player. I’d rather have the elite talent–Scott Brooks just beat Gregg Popovich and I’ll go out on a limb and say that had more to do with OKC’s two top 10 players to San Antonio’s one than any Thunder coaching advantage.
The Hawks could try to trade for an established top 10 player. There’s precedent for this with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Julius Erving (who was actually “sold” to the 76ers by the Nets), Tiny Archibald, Moses Malone, Charles Barkley and Jason Kidd.
Going that route would almost certainly mean the Hawks would have to trade away part of the proverbial “core” and perhaps take a step back in the short term. My feeling is this is less likely to happen if Sund returns as GM. After a season in which injuries legitimately hurt their chances to advance in the playoffs, the Hawks under Sund probably would stay the course.
That’s a defensible position insofar as it keeps a good team intact. It’s not a proven plan as far as contending for a championship, unless you believe Johnson, Josh Smith, or Al Horford can be top 10 players next season. Essentially, the best way for the Hawks to become true championship contenders is for one of their players to be good enough to transcend the Detroit model.
Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat
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768 comments Add your comment
Melvin
June 9th, 2012
7:00 pm
I still my like trade of Trading Al to Sac for Evans and #5 pick. Evans can play the SG, slide Joe to SF and draft Drummond of out UConn with the 5th pick. Hawks would save around 4mil of cap space (Evans 5 + 3mil draft pick). Hawks could use the cap space to sign FAs.
The 99 percent
June 9th, 2012
7:06 pm
Thats a funny joke to say Al is in josh league talent wise. he is not nor ever will be in josh’s league as for talent.
Al will probably end up as a bench or role play 3 years from now. The days of waiting for Al to blossom in to a talent is over. We know that he has peaked.
This is who Al is
College? 12pts game
Pros? 12pts game
Allstar 05 pts game
Playoffs? 10.8 pts game (42 games) 7rbs
Al just doesnt have the talent that josh does. Sorry. No capable of taking over a game as Josh can.
Nobody has to set Josh up and Josh doesn’t need the pick and roll nor a screen. Josh can take you off the dribble, left hand, right hand at the basket, cutting, on the fly, cross over. face up, step back short hook, whatever. Josh has lots of offensive tools. Al doesn’t. Get real Al has a face up shot from 12-17 ft back that’s it. That’s why Al can’t score or command a double team like Josh.
Agreed
June 9th, 2012
7:09 pm
What you do night in and night out is what matters. Not how you misuse stats to give a false impression. Here is what is real about Al. He is very very limited in creating shots and must be set up with the pick and roll, bump with a screen or have a play run to get him to a certain spot to get a shot off. He is mechanical predictable and limited in what he can do offensively without slowing down the offense. He is not in Josh is league talent wise, smart wise, assist wise or the ability to score multiple ways as Josh does.
“Nobody has to set Josh up and Josh doesn’t need the pick and roll nor a screen. Josh can take you off the dribble, left hand, right hand at the basket, cutting, on the fly, cross over. face up, step back short hook, whatever. Josh has lots of offensive tools. Al doesn’t. Get real Al has a face up shot from 12-17 ft back that’s it. That’s why Al can’t score or command a double team like Josh.”
Don’t mask the truth with phony potential and trumped up stats. The only stats that matter is what you do night in night out.
Al has peaked. When he came out of college he was the most nba ready player in the draft, but that was 6 years ago and Al has now peaked.
This is who Al is
College? 12pts game
Pros? 12pts game
Allstar 05 pts game
Playoffs?10.8 pts game (44 games)
That’s Al and that’s what you get from Al. You put that with his unwillingness to play defense, his lack of off season work regiment. His non team infighting about wanting to play Josh’s position, his uncanny for disappearing in the playoffs and his ability to injure himself makes Al a player to be traded.
This was a much better team without Al and every player accepted his role for the better of the team. No one (or his father) stir up trouble and disharmony about playing another players position. The focus was on winning.
The hawk’s chemistry is not as good with Al on the team as without him. His 12pts 8rbs was easily absorbed by Ivan and or zaza.
Bottom line? Josh showed great leadership and was this season’s Hawks MVP over JJ.This is Josh’s team and the player to build around. If the hawks are going to get better All has got to go.
Agreed
June 9th, 2012
7:19 pm
*Al has to go
Sautee
June 9th, 2012
7:27 pm
never say Al cant !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irZQo861Wtc
High-sider
June 9th, 2012
7:37 pm
^Correction: “…2011-2012 NBA Regular and Post Season: averaged 6.6ppg in the regular season…”
Clarification
June 9th, 2012
8:33 pm
“This is who Al is”
“College? 12pts game
Pros? 12pts game
Allstar 05 pts game
Playoffs? 10.8 pts game (42 games) 7rbs”
“Al just doesnt have the talent that josh does. Sorry.”
Here’s who else Al is:
Two time National Champion in college
2010-2011 Third team All-NBA
NBA All-Rookie First Team
Second in ROY voting to Kevin Durant
2 time All-Star at Center
More 4th quarter baskets than Josh and Joe combined in the playoffs this year, even though he only played two and a half games to their 6
1.33 blocks per game in the playoffs (for comparison Josh was 1.0 / gm)
.588% FG in the 2012 playoffs (for comparison Josh was .386%)
Career playoff FG% of 47.4 (for comparison Josh is 42%)
Sautee
June 9th, 2012
8:46 pm
Put me down for the De Angelo for Al Trade. Do it now!!!
Sautee
June 9th, 2012
8:52 pm
All Blocked a 3rd string players shot back to back when he came off the bench and it padded his stat to look like he was doing something then yo by!tch as try to make it out like now Al is a defender.
Dont take your best five minutes in history and pimp that across a projected 42 minutes and say see…. Al is a player.
Al is a hoe and he plays like a hoe. Trade his sorry bi!tch as now.
What you do night in night out is what counts. Taking your best 1 game or 2 games and multiplying that across 82 games or 42 games is pimping at its best. This is who the Fck Al is:
“College? 12pts game
Pros? 12pts game
Allstar 05 pts game
Playoffs? 10.8 pts game (42 games) 7rbs”
northcyde
June 9th, 2012
8:54 pm
Horford for Granger? So we become an even more jumpshot oriented team?
Joe Johnson: 554 shots from 16+ feet . . shot 39.4% from that range
Josh Smith: 499 shots from 16+ feet . . . shot 34.5% from that range
Danny Granger: 485 shots from 16+ feet . . . shot 37.9% from that range
Ditch Witch AkA Grandad
June 9th, 2012
8:55 pm
Co-signing
Al has peaked. When he came out of college he was the most nba ready player in the draft, but that was 6 years ago and Al has now peaked.
This is who Al is
College? 12pts game
Pros? 12pts game
Allstar 05 pts game
Playoffs?10.8 pts game (44 games)
Sautee
June 9th, 2012
8:57 pm
I agree Al should be traded but not for Granger. We can do better than that.
northcyde
June 9th, 2012
9:00 pm
Boston up 9 in the 1st quarter.
LOL . . did the Heat think that a team with 3 future Hall of Famers would just roll over and die?
Flash ( Wade ) and Captain America ( Lebron ) better wake their butts up.
Clarification
June 9th, 2012
9:01 pm
http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2012/4/1/2919212/al-horford-for-danny-granger-who-says-no
Interesting that only 14% of those who answered the poll would trade Horford for Granger straight up. I thought it would have been higher.
Clarification
June 9th, 2012
9:19 pm
Here’s who else Al is:
Two time National Champion in college
2010-2011 Third team All-NBA
NBA All-Rookie First Team
Second in ROY voting to Kevin Durant
2 time All-Star at Center
More 4th quarter baskets than Josh and Joe combined in the playoffs this year, even though he only played two and a half games to their 6
1.33 blocks per game in the playoffs (for comparison Josh was 1.0 / gm)
.588% FG in the 2012 playoffs (for comparison Josh was .386%)
Career playoff FG% of 47.4 (for comparison Josh is 42%)
northcyde
June 9th, 2012
9:31 pm
OMG
DeAndre Jordan’s Opponent Counterpart Per 48 Minute Production numbers.
20.9 points ( on 15.8 shots )
13.6 rebs
56% eFG ( extremely too high )
20.2 PER
That dude is THAT BAD defensively? That’s worse than Javale McGee and DeMarcus Cousins and even Andris Biendris. Only Anderson Varejao was worse last year.
No wonder why Reggie Evans and Kenyon Martin got major minutes during the playoffs.
It really shows you how overrated the blocked shot really is. Especially when that’s all you have. Jordan would get the occasional highlight block shot, but get lit up by his man overall.
KevinM
June 9th, 2012
9:35 pm
Its amazing to think that the Celtics are on the cusp of the Finals when they moved Perkins for money reasons. At this point, they have nothing to show for that trade, and they still filled the gap, and that is without the O’Neals, who were being counted on heavily.
Bass for Big Baby has been huge for the interior of the Celtics.
Shame Sund doesn’t have that gene that Ainge has shown to have. Sund’s only gene is what’s the record for being a GM in the league and doing the least possible to muck things up.
So stop with the ‘if we were healthy’ junk.
northcyde
June 9th, 2012
9:36 pm
D-Wade is point shaving tonight.
northcyde
June 9th, 2012
9:56 pm
KevinM . . the knock on Big Baby Davis is that he’s an inefficient scorer and a horrible rebounder for a PF. Bass, on the other hand, has always shot the mid-range jumper really well for a PF. And he plays better defense.
Remember though. Ainge traded Perkins for Jeff Green, a nice young SG/SF ( who is hurt now ) and a 1st round pick that they’ll get this year. They parlayed Perkins perceived value ( and expiring contract ) into tangible assets for the future.
We all would love for the Hawks/Sund to understand basketball enough, to be able to get that for a role player.
The Celtics are slotted to get 2 consecutive 1st round picks right ahead of us. You just know that they’re going to take a player that most of us have our eyes on.
The Hawks are the flip side of basketball front office excellence though.
They’ll covet a guy like Zaza and pay him something like a 4 year – 20 million deal at the end of the year, instead of selling him off to a desperate team that needs a center, and getting a decent but cheap complimentary player + a draft pick.
Buddy Grizzard
June 9th, 2012
10:08 pm
“LD was “partially” right [in] sitting/benching Hinrich in the 4th quarter and OT of Game 3 vs. the Celtics; McGrady, not Pargo, should have been playing in lieu of Hinrich.”
High-sider, this is at least progress. You finally acknowledge that the series was lost in part due to bad coaching. But if you want to pretend like you know something about basketball, here’s a suggestion. Before you make a comment like the above, jump on over to ESPN.com and look at the play by play for Game 3. If you had bothered to do that, you would know that Pargo and McGrady PLAYED TOGETHER in the 4th quarter. Despite turning his ankle in the first half, McGrady PLAYED 41 MINUTES in that game. There was hardly a time when MCGRADY WAN’T ON THE FLOOR.
But at least you admit playing Pargo was a mistake. As I said, progress.
northcyde
June 9th, 2012
10:38 pm
Buddy, I’ll give you an assist on that. Not only can you look at the play by play, you can look at the Popcornmachine Game Flow of that game.
You can see exactly where each guy played, at each moment, and with which teammates.
Three questions has to be asked during that game, especially with the 2nd half rotations
1) Why stick with a hurt T-Mac who was completely ineffective in that 2nd half, and especially while playing him at PF?
2) Why not put Hinrich back into the game early in the 4th, when it was obvious that Pargo wasn’t going to give you anything that night?
3) Why not give Ivan or Marvin more time at PF?
While Marvin was -10 in the game, he was easily the leading rebounder for the Hawks that night. But even if you don’t go back with Marvin, why not go with Ivan at the 4, and either get T-Mac out of there, or get him some rest?
To me, the Hawks were put unnecessarily into a deep hole in that 4th quarter, due to Drew’s decision to go with that smallish team vs Boston’s core group of Rondo – Allen – Pietrus – Pierce – Garnett.
If not for Teague and JJ coming on late in that quarter, the Hawks could’ve easily lost that game by 12+ points, instead of forcing it into OT.
This is why I say that when Sund re-constructs the bench this year with vet minimum contracts, he needs to limit the amount of offensive players that Drew can go to. Limit the options that dude can go to, by giving him players that specifically do one thing well. Don’t give him a bunch of guys known for their offense or shot making abilities.
If you get a guard who can just shoot . . also get a guard who can just defend.
If you get a SF who can just shoot . . also get a SF who can just defend.
Until Drew learns how to manage rotations, limit that dude’s options.
northcyde
June 9th, 2012
10:40 pm
LOL . . if Willie Green is brought back, maybe it’s best to have a Royal Ivey on the roster as well . . so that Drew can either go with a strictly offensive player, or a strictly defensive player.
northcyde
June 9th, 2012
10:42 pm
Meanwhile . . this Celtic – Heat game is turning into an instant classic. Neither team wanting to die. I hope this game is decided by a final shot.
Annoyed
June 9th, 2012
10:46 pm
Mike Brean sounds like a Heat announcer, he gets so excited when they do something positive. Then if the Celtics score, he sounds bored. I wonder if he realizes how one sided the game sounds? Isn’t he supposed to be impartial? Not a chance. I think JVG is embarrassed.
Buddy Grizzard
June 9th, 2012
10:49 pm
Al only played in 1 and 1/2 games so his stats are accurate as his 44 game play off experience which has him as
10.7 pts
7 rebs
0.9 blocks
1 shot block against.
That is true that’s what you get from Al. You cant win with that type of career performance. Al and Teague are both project players that will have to go if the hawks are going to get serious.
Al and teague are Poot butts.
doc
June 9th, 2012
10:50 pm
the way ray allen runs routes, he looks like jerry rice, both real pros doing it the right way and with precision.
Buddy Grizzard
June 9th, 2012
10:50 pm
*l only played in 1 and 1/2 games so his stats are not accurate as his 44 game play off experience which has him as
10.7 pts
7 rebs
0.9 blocks
1 shot block against.
doc
June 9th, 2012
10:51 pm
bosh doing his best josh imitations. heh heh
Clarification
June 9th, 2012
10:55 pm
Thats true about Pimping Al stats to try and make him look good. If I take Jon Koncaks 10 best minutes and multiply it time 42 and then that across 82 it will make him look like hes almost as good as Al.
Reality Check
Al is not in Josh’s league. Josh is this teams MVP
Sautee( Im not gay any more)
June 9th, 2012
10:57 pm
If Teague was Rondo and Al was Bynum we’d win A championship.
Duh
Why Lie?
June 9th, 2012
10:58 pm
Why lie about Horford’s stats? It’s so easy to check.
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/al_horford/career_stats.html
11.7 points, 8.7 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.1 blk.
Why lie?
Sautee( Im not gay any more)
June 9th, 2012
10:58 pm
hell if Al was as good as Bosh wed have a chance.
Black man
June 9th, 2012
10:59 pm
If Al was as good as Josh, wed have a chance.
Buddy Grizzard
June 9th, 2012
11:01 pm
Had to stop watching… so many unforced turnovers and bad defensive possessions by the Celtics. They didn’t want it bad enough.
Buddy Grizzard
June 9th, 2012
11:02 pm
I’m so butt-hurt I have to use other people’s ID’s to post my drivel.
Clarification
June 9th, 2012
11:02 pm
Here’s who else Al is:
Two time National Champion in college
2010-2011 Third team All-NBA
NBA All-Rookie First Team
Second in ROY voting to Kevin Durant
2 time All-Star at Center
More 4th quarter baskets than Josh and Joe combined in the playoffs this year, even though he only played two and a half games to their 6
1.33 blocks per game in the playoffs (for comparison Josh was 1.0 / gm)
.588% FG in the 2012 playoffs (for comparison Josh was .386%)
Career playoff FG% of 47.4 (for comparison Josh is 42%)
None of those stats were”trumped up”.
Black man
June 9th, 2012
11:03 pm
Liar those are Al numbers from the 1 and 1/2 games he played this year. not his career numbers… even if it were you are still making every body’s point.
You aint going to win with those mediocre performance from Al.
Al is Fckup and needs to be traded.
doc
June 9th, 2012
11:03 pm
heat playing to perfection, now.
Black man
June 9th, 2012
11:06 pm
Murkyfication that kite aint gonna fly. Like Boston aint gonna fly.
12pts 8 rebs pro or college
5 pts all star
11 pts playoff career
Cant pimp those stats baby. Al at his best is not as good as Josh at his worst.
northcyde
June 9th, 2012
11:08 pm
As for this topic. If a team is going to go with the “Detroit Model”, understand that the Detroit Model was constructed with DEFENSE as the #1 priority. From the coach, to the GM, to the players on the court, DEFENSE was the main emphasis in their construction.
And on offense, they were unselfish with no one guy being the offensive focal point of anything. But they knew who to get the ball to in certain situations.
And that team didn’t have much of a bench at all. That team was never no more than 8 deep on most nights. They were going to ride or die with their starters.
The true beauty of the “Detroit Model”, is that they managed to assemble top 10 talent at each starting position, while having a defensive identity.
The fatal mistake of Dumars, was not drafting Carmelo Anthony and believing the hype of Darko. Had he taken Melo at #2, Carmelo would’ve been perfect in a 6th man scoring role in his first few years in the league, while learning how to play defense on that squad.
Instead of being “the man”, but constantly losing in the playoffs, he could’ve had a career similar to a James Worthy, where he plays 2nd or 3rd fiddle for his first few years in the league, but being known as a key cog on a championship team.
bend over
June 9th, 2012
11:08 pm
None of this bull chitt is gonna win games :
Two time National Champion in college
2010-2011 Third team All-NBA
NBA All-Rookie First Team
Second in ROY voting to Kevin Durant
2 time All-Star at Center
What the fck is that ?
bend over
June 9th, 2012
11:12 pm
All that Bull Chitt and hes still just the 3rd or 4th best player on this tame
bend over
June 9th, 2012
11:13 pm
All that Bull Chitt and hes still just the 3rd or 4th best player on this team
Rufus1
June 9th, 2012
11:15 pm
Al Haters…
Al’s intelligent play, highlights Josh’s unintelligent play..
(2011) 15pts, 9rebs, 1 block, 1.5 turnovers and 56% shooting = SCRUB
(2011) 16pts, 8rebs, 1.6 blocks, 2.6 turnovers and 48% shooting = SUPERSTAR
Talented and undisciplined only takes you so far…. I will take moderate talent and discipline any day.
Old Man Peabody
June 9th, 2012
11:15 pm
That’s how you put the Celtics away.
Rusty
June 9th, 2012
11:17 pm
Neither Pargo or Kurt should have been playing the idiot should have had Teague in the game.
Grandad
June 9th, 2012
11:17 pm
Damn If Al was as good as Bosh….’
Wait
Didnt Amare call Al a Byitch and call him out and Al put his head down? WTF kind of leadership is that punk as chitt?
Al is Gay
Slimjr
June 9th, 2012
11:18 pm
Hey doc, going to be a great series?
Wilt Jr. vs. Durantula!
High-sider
June 9th, 2012
11:18 pm
^Correction: “You like [to*] deal with “snippets” while l like to deal with “totalities”…”
Clarification
June 9th, 2012
11:18 pm
Here’s who else Al is:
Two time National Champion in college
2010-2011 Third team All-NBA
NBA All-Rookie First Team
Second in ROY voting to Kevin Durant
2 time All-Star at Center
More 4th quarter baskets than Josh and Joe combined in the playoffs this year, even though he only played two and a half games to their 6
1.33 blocks per game in the playoffs (for comparison Josh was 1.0 / gm)
.588% FG in the 2012 playoffs (for comparison Josh was .386%)
Career playoff FG% of 47.4 (for comparison Josh is 42%)
None of those stats were”trumped up”. Didn’t need to be. They are what they are.