Atlanta Hawks: Elite talent, not ‘Detroit model,’ still best path to title
Assuming the favored Heat beat the Celtics tomorrow and advance to the Finals, it will add to the mountain of evidence suggesting the best way to build a championship team is to acquire elite players.
Yeah, I know: radical statement. But before you lump me with Captain Obvious, remember it’s at odds with the “Detroit model” currently favored by the Hawks.
My view is that there are two kinds of NBA teams–those with top 10 players, and those without–and everything an organization does should be in an attempt to be the former rather than the latter. The Hawks’ view is that they can build a team with three not-quite-elite talents and keep knocking at the door until they become championship contenders.
That’s assuming the Hawks do have aspirations of winning an NBA championship, something that’s not always clear. The franchise often seems more preoccupied with dinging its critics and demanding credit for its successes (and there are many) than raising the bar. That perception is fueled by superficial-but-telling tendencies (such as statements boasting about making the playoffs) and the embrace of a team-building philosophy that rarely leads to a championship.
In a league where superstars contend for titles, the Hawks have tried to do it without one.
“It is going to be very hard for us to get that MVP candidate unless you pick one or two [in the draft],” Rick Sund said last summer. “Or unless you happen to have … free-agent money, to get one in free agency. It’s going to be tough, so we are going to have to do it the hard way.”
The Detroit model certainly is that.
There have been 62 NBA championship teams since 1950, and 57 those teams placed at least one player on one of the top two All-NBA teams in the season they won it. In fact, only 15 of those champions failed to have at least one player voted first team All-NBA (a third five-man All-NBA team was added starting with the 1988-89 season).
Furthermore, only 10 of 62 finals runner-up teams failed to have at least one player considered among the top 10 in the league. That means just 15 of 124 teams to make the finals — 12 percent — did so without a player voted to be among the league’s 10 best.
The Heat or Thunder would add to those totals while the Celtics would not. And chances are if Boston advances it’s because Kevin Garnett or Paul Pierce once again rekindle their form from the recent past and/or Rajon Rondo plays to the level that has him on track to reach top 10 status.
The Hawks tried to do build a contender the way the Thunder have done it. They executed the first part of the plan by getting bad enough to get a chance at a high draft pick and lucky enough to land one. The second and most important part, drafting the right players, didn’t go so well.
Making the wrong pick hurts, but it happens. Worse is that instead of cutting their losses and turning Marvin Williams et al into assets they could use to take a shot at acquiring an elite player, the Hawks doubled down. And instead of using Joe Johnson to acquire more assets (draft picks, relatively cheap and productive players, cap space) that hey could parlay into a top 10 player, the Hawks gave him the richest deal in the league.
Now the Hawks aren’t projected to have real cap space until after next season, by which time Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia could be gone, Johnson will be a year older and they’ll have no more than four players under contract. Tough to get an elite talent and complementary players with $15 million or so in cap space.
I understand the calls for a new coach as the answer with this group of Hawks. Sometimes, though, I think that’s the most popular thing because it’s easier to change coaches than acquire a top 10 player. I’d rather have the elite talent–Scott Brooks just beat Gregg Popovich and I’ll go out on a limb and say that had more to do with OKC’s two top 10 players to San Antonio’s one than any Thunder coaching advantage.
The Hawks could try to trade for an established top 10 player. There’s precedent for this with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Julius Erving (who was actually “sold” to the 76ers by the Nets), Tiny Archibald, Moses Malone, Charles Barkley and Jason Kidd.
Going that route would almost certainly mean the Hawks would have to trade away part of the proverbial “core” and perhaps take a step back in the short term. My feeling is this is less likely to happen if Sund returns as GM. After a season in which injuries legitimately hurt their chances to advance in the playoffs, the Hawks under Sund probably would stay the course.
That’s a defensible position insofar as it keeps a good team intact. It’s not a proven plan as far as contending for a championship, unless you believe Johnson, Josh Smith, or Al Horford can be top 10 players next season. Essentially, the best way for the Hawks to become true championship contenders is for one of their players to be good enough to transcend the Detroit model.
Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat
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768 comments Add your comment
Thats fc8cked up
June 9th, 2012
4:36 pm
Tell me we are NOT paying Al 15 million a year to produce 12pts 8 rbs 1 blk and get his shot blk once… You are kidding right?
W T F
Now thats foolish spending
SteveW
June 9th, 2012
4:38 pm
Grandad – Billups won’t be back until January from the achilles injury. If we could spread our mid-level – and you can spend it on more than 1 player, it just has to cumulatively equal the mid-level – on Chancey Billups and Andre Miller – and maybe even Kirk Hinrich – would you do that?
SteveW
June 9th, 2012
4:41 pm
Billups was only making 2 mill with the Clips last season – and Miller is 36 years old – and that dude has only missed 4 out of 1,048 games in his career! Simply amazing.
And before anybody says it can’t be done financially – It actually can, even if we keep Marvin and our 1st pick at #23 (1.2 mill).
Have to get some of that $473,000 2nd round/DLeague action going on with a few slots – but hey, look at Ivan.
Grandad
June 9th, 2012
4:43 pm
SteveW I always suspected you were dumb, but your line of thought proves it. This whole thing about Kirk Hinrich is irrelevant. Whats relevant is Jeff Teague is not producing, hasn’t produced and wont produce.
Dumb question. Kind of like Obama talking about gay marriages while the economy is collapsing .
Id like you to come up with better thoughts than that Steve.
SteveW
June 9th, 2012
4:43 pm
A team of:
Al/ZaZa/Benson
Josh/Ivan
Marvin/Taylor (Even though 1 service has us now getting Quincy Miller)
JJ/Billups/Hinrich
Teague/Miller
That would be the stoutest team I can remember since the late 80’s.
DawgNole
June 9th, 2012
4:43 pm
steven a smith
June 9th, 2012
11:59 am
Great Post. I totally agree with you her my friend.
DawgNole
June 9th, 2012
2:59 am
Al horford makes me sick with that weak as game. you aint gonna win with that chett. Trade his as now!
____________________
Can’t take credit for that one, Steven A. It was an imposter–probably donte80, who continues to obsess over me and my comments.
Rubuenstein the Jewish Kind
June 9th, 2012
4:46 pm
LOL Get him grandad.
tired of mediocrity
June 9th, 2012
4:46 pm
Smith for Bynum is the answer. It makes Hawks and Lakers better teams and neither guy is going to resign with their respective teams anyway. Both guys need a change of scenery and feel unwanted anyway. This allows Al to move to his natural position and everybody knows the Lakers are going after Howard once he becomes an unrestricted free agent after one more season with the Magic anyway. Let’s go Sund and Spirit and get a little creative. The team you have right now ain’t cutting it and is never going to win a championship. Hortford and Teague should be the only untouchables. Do something for crying out loud and let the fans know you are serious about winning a championship because this team is putting me to sleep.
Rubuenstein the Jewish Kind
June 9th, 2012
4:48 pm
Co-signing DawgNole on the Al with the weak game needs to be traded.
SteveW
June 9th, 2012
4:50 pm
BG – Just been studying up on Wroten on Draftexpress – but I haven’t seen his J. Sounds horrid.
OB – That’s kinda the reason I’m wondering if a shell game trade with the Cavs may work. Our #23 and #43, and our whole draft next season maybe for the Cavs #24, 33, and 34 in a deep draft. I think Darius Miller may be an ok SF, and he’s maybe still on the Board at 33. And maybe Jenkins from Vandy is on the board at 34.
Ok, never mind, back to the drawing board.
Man, it’s hard to come up with a plausible salary dump scenario for a #2 bust.
Rubuenstein the Jewish Kind
June 9th, 2012
4:51 pm
Cosigning on the Trading Al for A real center moving Al to get a real center.
Josh is this teams MVP.
Zaza and Ivan showed we dont need Al so trade Al for a center… since he doesnt want to play center and is injury prone.
SteveW
June 9th, 2012
4:52 pm
OB – You may be right about Josh – he sounds like he really would like to try another situation.
SteveW
June 9th, 2012
4:52 pm
But word is ASG realy wants to keep him – Josh that is – we’ll see if they do – that guy improved greatly this season.
Rubuenstein the Jewish Kind
June 9th, 2012
4:53 pm
“The team you have right now ain’t cutting it and is never going to win a championship. Hortford and Teague” – theres your fc8cking problem right there.
Al hoeford and jeff brainless teague.
Some of us know
June 9th, 2012
5:01 pm
SteveW,
Black Man, Rubuenstein the Jewish Kind, Thats fc8cked up, break up the core, the fake Grandad, fake stephen a smith, and fake DawgNole posts are all our resident troll. You probably knew that.
An ignorant troll at that, if he thinks Horford makes $15M. He’s at $12M / yr for the rest of his contract. But this troll never let’s the facts get in the way of his agenda. Never.
DawgNole
June 9th, 2012
5:01 pm
brigadierjerry
June 9th, 2012
12:04 pm
Dawgnole,
You get to a point in time as you have stated many times were you get tired of waiting. To me with this management owenership team Hawks have it is time to show some progress advancing in the playoffs past 2nd round. Hawks need to make some moves and decide who they are building the team around.
Dawgnole, if you was the management/ownership, what would you do with this Hawks team as far as moves?Who would you keep and who would you get rid off
___________________
I’m with you, brigadier, on Hawks ownership/management having had more than enough time to show progress. As far as moves, the team’s in purgatory–not good enough to make it past Round 2, but too good to qualify for lottery picks. They had their chance at the latter, obviously, but Knight blew it–more than once. I’d like to see them keep Josh, Teague, Al, and Ivan–their top talent, IMO–and try to build around them. I still like TMac’s savvy. JJ’s past his prime. Pargo’s hot and cold. Marvin and Hinrich should go. All of this is easier said than done, of course. Blah Blah Blah. We’ve been through this too many times. There’s no magic out there.
By the way, I don’t understand all the grief Al gets on these boards. Hard to judge him in light of that injury, which some say he milked, but you saw what he did when he returned late in the Boston series. I think we could do a lot worse than letting him go.
Rubuenstein the Jewish Kind
June 9th, 2012
5:02 pm
- Atlanta Hawks co-owner Bruce Levenson says the likelihood of Josh Smith getting traded before Thursday is “close to zero.”
Numerous reports have stated Smith wants out of Atlanta. But Levenson says those rumours are unfounded and that Smith has told him they aren’t coming from the player or his agent – BUT MENTIONED THEY ARE COMING FROM AL HORFORD SUPPORTERS INCLUDING MICHAEL CUNNINGHAMING OF THE AJC.
Smith is in his eighth season with Atlanta after being taken out of high school with the 17th pick in the 2004 NBA draft. He is averaging a career-best 17 points and 9.6 rebounds this season.
Oh Wow
June 9th, 2012
5:04 pm
Enter your comments here
Oh Wow
June 9th, 2012
5:06 pm
So all this talk about Josh wanting to be traded is coming from Michael Cunningham and the Other Al Horford supporters
That figures.
Another reason to trade Al and it explains why the chemistry is poor with Al on the team. This is a much better team with out Al
DawgNole
June 9th, 2012
5:07 pm
Some of us know
June 9th, 2012
5:01 pm
SteveW,
Black Man, Rubuenstein the Jewish Kind, Thats fc8cked up, break up the core, the fake Grandad, fake stephen a smith, and fake DawgNole posts are all our resident troll. You probably knew that.
An ignorant troll at that, if he thinks Horford makes $15M. He’s at $12M / yr for the rest of his contract. But this troll never let’s the facts get in the way of his agenda. Never.
____________________
It’s gratifying to know, frankly, that you know these posters well enough to recognize a fake post. I didn’t realize we had a “resident troll” (imposter), but I’m beginning to find out the hard way.
DawgNole
June 9th, 2012
5:13 pm
donte080
June 9th, 2012
2:06 pm
brig, dawg-hole has no fresh ideas, nor is she a hawks fan… just a whiner and complainer who enjoys dissing everything about this team
_______________________
Good ol’ donte80. We can always count on him to obsess over DawgNole and his comments.
“Fresh ideas,” donte? Kinda like yours about how the rest of us should be “grateful” that the ATL teams remain “competitive” instead of lamenting their postseason failures? After 44 years, remaining “competitive” only cuts it for losers. Loser.
Vigest Dyck
June 9th, 2012
5:13 pm
Co-sign some mo hoes -June 9th, 20125:01 pm
Al making between 12 and 17 million per year is a waste. for that kind of money we can have a real center that wont complain, milk injuries, lay out, fight his teammates and use his dad as a mouth piece to hate on Josh, the teams MVP and leader.
Some of us know
June 9th, 2012
5:16 pm
As I said, with this troll, the facts never get in the way. We all remember Levenson saying that, right, LOL? I wonder how Sekou missed a mention, since he broke the”Josh is leaving” story long before MC?
Someone is acting a bit frightened by the possibility of Josh leaving. Panicky even, I’d say.
Evan Bigger Dyck
June 9th, 2012
5:17 pm
for 12,000,000 to 18,000,000 Million mtherfckingdollars you think wed get a real center who wont fight his teammates and will love his position, play some defense not act like a hoe.
Buddy Grizzard
June 9th, 2012
5:17 pm
“For the 15,000,000 (THATS 15 MILLION PER YEAR) that we pay Al injury prone horford is wasted.”
Some of us know beat me to it, but Al makes a flat $12m per season with no raises, one of the greatest value contracts ever signed by an NBA player. DeAndre jordan will make $10.5m, $11m and $11.5m over the next three seasons and he’s a complete stiff.
Get a life superior blog troll. Go outside, snif the air.
Sautee
June 9th, 2012
5:20 pm
So What will we get for the millions and millions upon Millions that we pay Al hoeford?
can we get better than 12pts 8 rebounds?
wcj
June 9th, 2012
5:20 pm
The hawks could offer josh smith and their 1st draft pick and move up to the top ten or top five draft picks. They could then pick a center or the best player available. The hawks need a GM with some basketball skills to pick an elite player. Rick Sund is not the GM that can do this job. The hawks need a GM who could stand up to these owners and tell them “we can not win with this roster”.
Sautee stopped being gay
June 9th, 2012
5:22 pm
Id take DeAndre Jordan for Al, Pull that trade now !
Sautee stopped being gay
June 9th, 2012
5:23 pm
That would work. Al horford and a high second to move up. Absolutely
Some of us know
June 9th, 2012
5:23 pm
Buddy Grizzard,
This isn’t superior blogman. This is t r u t h – s e r u m. A name that can’t be spelled without spacing because he’s been banned so many times here. They are not the same person, though t-s has, like a famous character in the Bible, Legions of personas. All of them saying the same worthless BS. Over and over.
dap01
June 9th, 2012
5:23 pm
Is there a Jamal blog somewhere? Perhaps all of these Jamal lovers can go there and adore him.
Sautee
June 9th, 2012
5:26 pm
Go point dap01 this is Al hoefarts blog and I hate people that dont worship him.
We should have kept woodson.
Sautee
June 9th, 2012
5:32 pm
Actually T r u t h S e r u m was and is a legendary blogger whose name has been retired to the bloggers hall of fame.
http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2012/4/1/2919212/al-horford-for-danny-granger-who-says-no
Sautee
June 9th, 2012
5:34 pm
Thats not me posting as stopped being gay. someone has hacked my name.
wcj
June 9th, 2012
5:35 pm
The Mavs or Lakers would take Joe Johnson for the right price. The hawks need young players with talent and 1st round draft picks. The Mavs and Lakers were not happy with how they exited the playoffs. Joe Johnson can be moved, if the hawks act quickly. OH, I forgot, you need a GM with some guts to make this move!!!!!
High-sider
June 9th, 2012
6:09 pm
@Buddy Grizzard
“…This from a guy who dodged the direct question: Was it the correct call to play Pargo in the 4th quarter of Game 3 and sit Hinrich? As long as you dodge questions and bring up the ancient history of Jamal Crawford, you’re not even participating in the discussion. We’re talking about what could have changed in the BOS playoff series that could have resulted in the Hawks still PLAYING RIGHT NOW. None of us has a hot tub time machine and GM powers to retroactively re-sign Jamal Crawford. But LD had a choice of available players to use in the 4th quarter of Game 3. He chose Pargo over Hinrich. Was that correct call? Answer the question or stfu…” – Buddy Grizzard @12:43pm dated 6/9/2012
““Why can’t we move on past the Hinrich and Jamal discussion?”
We are past the Jamal discussion… at least, everybody but High-sider is. But I’m still waiting for High-sider and Rod from College Park to answer a simple question: Was playing Pargo in the 4th quarter of Game 3 and sitting Hinrich the correct call? Still waiting for an answer.” – Buddy Grizzard @3:25pm dated 6/9/2012
—————————————————————————————————————–
LD was “partially” right [in] sitting/benching Hinrich in the 4th quarter and OT of Game 3 vs. the Celtics; McGrady, not Pargo, should have been playing in lieu of Hinrich. The five Hawks players that should have been playing in the 4th qtr. and OT of Game 3 vs. the Celtics include Teague @pg/sg, J. Johnson @sg/sf, T. McGrady @pnt frwd/sml frwd, M. Williams @pwr frwd and Dampier @cntr. Maybe LD could’ve inserted Ivan Johnson instead of M. Williams for some duration in the 4th quarter and overtime but that [substitution] should depend on the level of performance of both players late in that [particular] game. Please note [that] Kirk Hinrich HAD NOT SCORED A SINGLE POINT after logging 26:19 [26 minutes and 19 seconds] of playing time in Game 3 vs. the Celtics in the 2012 playoffs before being benched in the 4th quarter and overtime of that same game. The Hawks needed another player on the court who could score the basketball and McGrady proved he could give the Hawks [some] scoring by tallying 12 points in Game 3.
High-sider
June 9th, 2012
6:12 pm
@dap01
dap01
June 9th, 2012
5:23 pm
Is there a Jamal blog somewhere? Perhaps all of these Jamal lovers can go there and adore him.
—————————————————————-
You’re on it – the “Jamal blog,” that is.
Sautee is a hoe (grandad is mo hoe)
June 9th, 2012
6:30 pm
looks like the Al horford for Danny Granger trade is back in discussions, I just dont see Danny Granger as helping us at center. Id prefer the Al for DeAndre Jordan trade or the Al plus Teague for D12 and a draft trade. Either way we address our #1 weakness center.
SteveW
June 9th, 2012
6:35 pm
So do you think the lack of movement on Sund’s part means, gasp, another attempt at bringing in Investor’s/Majority owner(s) by ASG?
SteveW
June 9th, 2012
6:37 pm
Bleacher did have a Al, Teague, Marvin, ZaZa trade for D12. Said D12, Josh, and JJ equal anybody in the League’s Big 3.
Durant, Westbrook, and Harden would sure give them a run for that accolade.
OKC also has pieces. ATL would have no one.
Grandad is AKA Ditch Witch
June 9th, 2012
6:42 pm
I dont like the Granger for Horford trade and would prefer the Al for DeAndre Jordan trade
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqITrgxQB5w
brigadierjerry
June 9th, 2012
6:42 pm
Dawgnole, Grandad,
I agree I dont get the hate against Al Horford. Is he as talented as Josh Smith no but can you win with him yes. He or for that matter Josh Smith arent a number one option on any teams unless you are a perennial lottery team or a team that is going nowhere. Does Al have limitations yes. We all know what Al can or cannot do but u can win with him. Al will probably have a loner career then Josh. The reason I say that is because as josh gets older and his athleticism declines, he will have to rely on his skills to continue his career.
As I stated before Al Horford is Buck Williams with a better jump shot. Buck Williams had a pretty solid career. Horford would be best suited in the role Buck Williams played on those Blazer teams in the 90’s with Drexler Duckworth Porter. Buck Williams was the 4th option on that team. Horford is a 3rd option at best but you know what so is Josh as well although I think Josh views himself as a consistent #2 option after Johnson and I dont think he is that as of this point in time. That is part of the reason against the better teams he struggles.
Hi-Sider,
I see you didnt answer my question in regards to who is better Jamal Crawford or Jason Terry and what state do you reside in but that is cool. It is pretty much time to end the Jamal Crawford chronicles that premiered on Lifetime last year.
The 99%
June 9th, 2012
6:45 pm
That would go seven games Durant Westbrook and Harden vs D12, Smoove and JJ.
Al teague and Marvin would get swept in the 1st round.
It would be nice to get rid of our projects like Al, teague and marvin.
UGA
June 9th, 2012
6:46 pm
Best roster to keep the Hawks under the CAP:
PG: Teague, Wroten Jr., Pargo
SG: Joe, JR Smith/Nick Young
SF: Marvin, Josh Howard/Ronnie Brewer
PF: Smoove, Ivan
C: Horford, ZaZa, Collins, Brian Butch
The 99%
June 9th, 2012
6:47 pm
That would go seven games Durant Westbrook and Harden vs D12, Smoove and JJ.
Al teague and Marvin would get swept in the 1st round.
It would be nice to get rid of our projects like Al, teague and marvin williams.
UGA
June 9th, 2012
6:52 pm
We were linked to Josh Howard last year…..I think if Smith opts out we could sign him for around 3 a year. He is a knuckledhead and it would be risky but he can create a shot which is what we lack off the bench.
The 99 PERCENT
June 9th, 2012
6:54 pm
I agree that Josh Smith can be a top ten player next year. Looks like he was this year. I laugh at the notion that Al could be a top ten. Now thats funny.
The 99 %
June 9th, 2012
6:57 pm
best roster under the cap to compete for a championship:
D William
W.Green
JJ
Josh Smoove
DeAngelo Jordan or Gasol or Bynam
The 99 percent
June 9th, 2012
6:59 pm
What is the best we can get for over priced Al horford?
brigadierjerry
June 9th, 2012
7:00 pm
UConn center Andre Drummond is projected to be drafted in the second tier of players, after Kentucky’s Anthony Davis goes to New Orleans with the No. 1 pick. But there are red flags about the 6-10 Drummond, who has been told by UConn coaches that he is not ready for the NBA after only one college season. They’ve warned him that when he gets to the next level, he can’t spend countless hours playing video games. He’s going to have to show a new work ethic and get out on the court and improve his game. Let the buyer beware
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/seattle-bitter-transplanted-sonics-reach-nba-finals-oklahoma-city-thunder-article-1.1092686#ixzz1xL8RZyAY